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Leadership Dynamics

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presenta=on [deleted] Washington, D.C., June 7, 2013

Party Power Structure

>3.5 million members

Congress 1,377 delegates

Central CommiLee 175 members

Politburo 14 members

Secretary General

Three Approaches
Patronage and power as the key by- product of Vietnams na=onal party congress process Personality clashes, policy dierences and ideology Leadership selec=on as a product of sectoral (interest group) representa=on Not mutually exclusive

Vietnam Communist Party

11th National Congress

January 2011

Nguyn Ph Trng

Central Executive Committee

175 full and 25 alternate members, Central Committee required to meet in plenary session twice a year. Over last 8 years it has met on average 3 times a year.

Genera=onal Change on the VCP Central CommiLee Elected 2011

Full members retained Alternate members promoted New full members

Sectoral Composi=on of the Central CommiLee 2011

11% 9%

Senior Party Central Party- State



Secondary/ Provincial Armed Forces

CC Members Holding Central Party Posts N = 38


5 2 3 2 13 13

Central CommiLee Commissions Party media Mass Organisa=on Secretariat Inspec=on CommiLee

CC Members Holding Central State Posts N = 47

17 5 7 11 7

Na=onal Assembly Other central state Mass Organisa=on Deputy Minister

CC Members Holding Provincial Posts N = 94

1 5 20 11 57
Party Secretary Deputy Party Secretary Other Regional District Party Secretary

Political Bureau 2011

Cabinet - Chnh Ph (literally government)

From collective leadership to ministerial responsibility

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung

Heads Cabinet

Member of Politburo

The State
President Trng Tn Sang Vice President Nguyn Th Doan

Na=onal Assembly - Quc Hi

Nguyn Sinh Hng - Chair

Amendments to 1992 Cons=tu=on

Rule of Law

Proceedings broadcast on radio and television, voting results made public, full-time deputies, Ministers grilled, legislation amended, two of the Prime Ministers Cabinet nominees rejected, reviewed bauxite contract with Chinese firm, high-speed rail rejected, opne deputy called for Prime Minister to resign, confidence vote

Vietnams Power elite

Secretary General

State President

Prime Minister

Permanent Secretary Party Secretariat

Chair Na=onal Assembly Standing CommiLee

Equilibrium 2011

Growing Power of the Oce of the Prime Minister

State Pr esident, S

ecretary Gen

eral, Pri me Min ister

7th Plenum October 2012

Cri=cism and self-cri=cism campaign Politburo voted 9:5 (or 10:4) to recommend that the Central CommiLee discipline a certain comrade Central CommiLee overrode this recommenda=on Despite shortcomings Nguyen Tan Dung bounced back (sectoral backing)

Over 65 in 2016 12th Congress

Under 65 in 2016

Dinh The Huynh

Nguyen Thien Nhan

Nguyen Xuan Phiuc

Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan

Tong Thi Phiong

Tran Dai Quang

Enlarged 11th Plenum?

Mid-way point between 11th and 12th na=onal party congresses A mid-term conference Replacement of Party Secretary General Addi=onal member(s) of Politburo? Shun=ng aside some incumbents
Nguyen Thien Nhan to Fatherland Front

12th Na=onal Party Congress

Early 2016 Exemp=ons to age limits can be made for two incumbents Nguyen Tan Dung could be exempted and become next party Secretary General Truong Tan Sang unlikely to be retained

Ins=tu=onal interests mi=gate against strong party leader State (Cabinet and Oce of Prime Minister) has grown more powerful than party President has pushed for greater power The party has aLempted to claw back some power from the oce of the prime minister

Vietnams Leadership Dynamics

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presenta=on [deleted] Washington, D.C., June 7, 2013