Faculty of Engineering

Department : Structural Engineering Course : Construction Project Management Course Code : 8414 Class Exercise 6 1. Recently, you were assigned to manage a project for your company. You have constructed a network diagram depicting various activities in the project. In addition, you asked various managers and subordinates to estimate the amount of time they would expect each activity to take. Their responses (in days) were as follows: Duration (days) Most likely Pessimistic (m) (b) 7 10 10 14 6 7 4 6 8 9
C D 5 B 35 E 40

: 4th Civil

Activity A B C D E
A

Optimistic (a) 4 8 3 2 7
10

a. Compute the mean and variance in time for each activity. b. Determine the critical path and the expected length of the critical path. c. Assume that the time required to complete a path is normally distributed. What is the probability of completing the critical path in less than 17 days? d. If you wanted to be at least 95 percent sure of completing the project on time, what schedule durations would you quote? 2. Consider the project given in the next table. Find the probability that the project will be completed within 70 and 80 days. What is the project expected duration corresponding to 70% assurance.
Construction Management Dr. Emad Elbeltagi

Activity A B C D E F

Optimistic (a) 10 24 22 12 20 13

Duration (days) Most likely Pessimistic (m) (b) 16 22 32 42 32 40 16 21 25 35 16 19

Dependencies A B C, D A, B

3. You have just decided to open your own geotechnical consulting firm. To secure financing from the bank, you must present a plan for when you expect some income from your firm. You sit down with your banker and develop this plan of things that must be accomplished prior to starting your fist job. Estimated duration and precedence relationships for these activities are shown in the table below. Durations are given in days. a. Draw a PERT diagram and determine the expected duration and the critical path. b. Assume that the time required to complete a path is normally distributed. Determine the probability of being able to start your fist job within 180 days. c. To provide an allowance for unforeseen problems, you want to present your banker with a time before you start operations based upon a 95 percent confidence level. How many days from receipt of the loan will you tell banker to expect you to start your first job?
Duration (days) Activity A B C D E F G H I Description Purchase land Hire staff Obtain permits Obtain business license Site preparation Construct office Paving & landscaping Stock soil testing equipment Test equipment Optimistic (a) 30 9 2 20 3 21 9 25 11 Most likely (m) 60 25 10 45 4 25 12 30 12 Pessimistic (b) 90 32 18 52 11 41 15 41 16 Immediate predecessor A A A C, D E F B, G H

Construction Management

Dr. Emad Elbeltagi