BAYESIAN LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL: ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES OF THE BANKING SECTOR OF THE NIGERIA STOCK EXCHANGE.

AN ASSIGNMENT SUBMITTED

BY
ABDULFATAI SHAKIRUDEEN 060806002

(Mathematics Department, University of Lagos)

SUBMITTED TO DR M. ADAMU-IRIA STATISTICAL PACKAGES MAT 829

MAY 2013

ABSTRACT

Bayesian statistics is an approach to statistics which formally seeks use of prior information with the data. Bayes Theorem provides the formal basis for making use of both sources of information in a formal manner. The Bayesian analysis is the study of

different features of posterior density. In this study, Bayesian Regression analysis using R software (with MCMC pack) is used to explore data extracted from the Nigeria Stock Exchange in the Capital market (case study of two banks; Access Bank PLC and United Bank of Africa PLC). Data collected for this project is a secondary data from Nigeria stock Exchange; All-share Index, daily price of stock, interest rate, exchange rate and daily oil price for the period of five years 2005-2009. For this purpose, we define the response variable as the Nigeria Stock Exchange All-share Index (NSEAI). The covariates are the Daily price of stock, Interest rate (Lending rate), Exchange rate and Oil price. Simulation approach of Bayesian analysis was found to be the most useful one in this study.

BAYESIAN REGRESSION METHODS

1. Introduction

Prior Probabilities and Bayes Theorem The task of Bayesian analysis is to build a model for the relationship between parameters () and observables (y), and then calculate the probability distribution of parameters conditional on the data, p(|y). In addition, the Bayesian analysis may calculate the predicted distribution of unobserved data.

Bayesian statistics begins with a model for the joint probability distribution of and y, p(,y). may be a single parameter or a vector of many parameters, and y may be a vector of observations of a single variable or a matrix with multiple observations of many variables. The function p is a probability distribution. An example of a model is the familiar one for estimating the mean and variance of a normally distributed population, in which p(,y) is a normal distribution with mean and variance given by the parameter vector , and y is a sample of independent measurements. Using the definition of conditional probability (Mangel and Clark 1988, Howson and Urbach 1989), p(,y) can be decomposed into two components:

p(,y) = p() p(y| ).. .1

By convention, p() is called the prior distribution of (i.e. the distribution prior to observing the data y) and p(y| ) is called the likelihood function (i.e. the likelihood of observing the data given

a particular parameter value ). Bayes theorem provides the posterior probability distribution p(|y) (i.e. the distribution of obtained after observing y and combining the information in the data with the information in the prior distribution):

p(|y) = p() p(y| ) / p(y)..2

Equation (2) provides a probability distribution of given observations of the data y. In this equation, p(y) is the sum (or integral) of p() p(y| ) over all possible values of -Mangel and Clark (1988) or Howson and Urbach (1989).

2. Subjectivity

Bayesian probabilities are sometimes called subjective probabilities. It is important to understand exactly what is meant by subjective in this context. Decision analyses are often unique. The situation in which one is making the decision may occur only once. It cannot be replicated, so there is no possibility for measuring probabilities by repeated sampling. Nevertheless, Bayesian analysis may be used to compute the probabilities needed to make decisions. Because these probabilities cannot be measured by repeated sampling, they are called subjective and they represent a degree of belief in a particular outcome-Lindley (1985), Howson and Urbach (1989) and Pratt et al. (1995). Also, if there is no basis in observed data for estimating the prior probability distribution, then the analyst may simply assume a particular prior distribution. The consequences of this assumption can be tested by sensitivity analyses that compare the response of the posterior

distribution to different assumptions about the prior distribution. Most commonly, a noninformative prior distribution is assumed. A non-informative prior distribution assigns the same probability to each possible value of the parameters. If the number of observations is at least moderately large, a non-informative prior distribution will have negligible impact on the posterior distribution. If the data y is limited, however, the choice of prior distribution may have a substantial impact on the posterior distribution. In this case, sensitivity analysis is needed to evaluate the consequences of different assumptions about the prior distribution.

3. Linear Regression with Non-informative Prior

In linear regression, the observations consist of a response variable in a vector y and one or more predictor variables in a matrix X. The vector y has n elements, corresponding to n observations. The matrix X has n rows, corresponding to the observations, and k columns corresponding to the number of predictors. If the regression includes an intercept, one of the columns of X is a column of ones. The parameters are the regression coefficients and the error variance of the fitted model, 2. The model that relates observations and parameters is written:

(y | , 2, X) ~ Normal(X , 2 I)..3

In words, this model states that the distribution of y given parameters and 2 and predictors X is a normal distribution with mean X and variance 2. The identity matrix is I. A normal distribution is completely specified by its mean and variance.

Once the model is specified, the Bayesian analysis seeks the posterior distribution for the parameters and a predictive distribution for the models predictions. The analysis begins with a prior distribution. A non-informative prior distribution that is commonly used for linear regression is p(, 2) 1/2..4

In words, this expression means that the joint probability distribution of and 2 given X is a flat surface with a constant level proportional to 1/2.

The posterior distribution of given 2 is | 2, y ~ Normal (E, V 2)

(A.5)

Expression (5) states that the probability distribution of given 2 and y is normal with mean E and variance V 2. The parameters of this normal distribution are computed from

E = (X X)-1 X y.6

V = (X X)-1.7

The apostrophe () denotes matrix transposition. The marginal posterior distribution of 2 (i.e. the integral over all possible values of of the joint distribution of and 2) is

2 | y ~ Inverse 2 (n - k, s2).8

Expression (8) says that the probability distribution of 2 given y follows an inverse 2 distribution. The inverse 2 distribution, presented by Gelman et al. (1995), is fully defined by two parameters, the degrees of freedom and the scale factor. In this case there are n k degrees of freedom (where n is the number of observations of y and k is the number of parameters to be estimated, i.e. the number of columns of X). The scale factor s2 is computed by

s2 = (y - X E) (y - X E) / (n k)..10

Note that y - X E is the vector of residuals, or deviations of observations from predictions. The marginal posterior distribution of given y is written

| y ~ Multivariate Student t (n k, E, s2)11

The multivariate Student t distribution (presented by Gelman et al. 1995) has three parameters, the degrees of freedom n k, the mean E, and the scale factor s2. This distribution is derived by integrating the posterior distribution of given 2 (5) over all possible values of 2 (8). Regressions are often fitted in order to make predictions. The predictive distribution, yp, given a new set of predictors Xp has mean

E(yp | y) = Xp E..12

The marginal posterior distribution of the variance of this prediction is

var(yp | 2, y) = (I + Xp V Xp) 2.13

where I is the identity matrix. This variance formula has two components, I 2 for sampling variance of the new observations and Xp V Xp 2 for uncertainty about . The marginal posterior distribution of yp given y is

p(yp | y ) ~ Multivariate Student-t [n k, Xp E, (I + Xp V Xp) s2]..14

Bayesian analysis using the non-informative prior of equation (4). The classical estimates of and 2 are E and s2, respectively. The classical standard error estimate for is V s2. The classical prediction for new data is yp = Xp E with variance (I + Xp V Xp) s2.

4. Linear Regression with Informative Prior

Bayesian analysis can be used to combine two different sources of information in a single model to estimate parameters or make predictions. The results can then be combined with a third source of information to improve the parameter estimates or predictions. This process can be repeated over and over again to combine information from any number of sources. Combining multiple sources of information is one of the most important uses of Bayesian statistics (Hilborn and Mangel 1997). In linear regression with an informative prior distribution, there are two

statistically-independent data sets that provide information about the model to be analyzed. We assign one data set to be the prior, and use the other data set for the likelihood. Usually it is convenient to assume that the prior distribution of the k regression parameters is multivariate

Student-t. This distribution has three parameters, a vector of mean regression parameters, a matrix with variances along the main diagonal and covariance elsewhere, and degrees of freedom. In this case, the mean vector contains the k prior estimates of the mean regression parameters (B0) and the k x k parameter covariance matrix S0, model variance s02 and degrees of freedom n0. For the second data set, we have a n1 x 1 response vector y1 and a n1 x k matrix of predictors X1. The posterior can be computed by treating the prior as additional data points, and then weighting their contribution to the posterior (Gelman et al. 1995).

5. DATA ANALYSIS ACCESS BANK PLC. 5.1 Simple Linear Regression analysis using R-package. R version 2.15.2 (2012-10-26) -- "Trick or Treat" Copyright (C) 2012 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing ISBN 3-900051-07-0 Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)

> data1<-read.table("C:\\Users\\shakirudeen\\Desktop\\Accessbank.txt",header=T) > data1 > attach(data1) > lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL) Call: lm(formula = NSEASI ~ PRICE + INTEREST + EXCHANGE + OIL)

Coefficients: (Intercept) 3.3104 PRICE 0.4697 INTEREST 2.3299 EXCHANGE -5.3469 OIL 0.3923

Table 1. The estimated coefficients for Access Bank.

> summary(lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)) Call: lm(formula = NSEASI ~ PRICE + INTEREST + EXCHANGE + OIL) Residuals: Min 1Q Median -0.00902 3Q 0.15483 Max 0.46518

-0.41806 -0.16074
Table 2.

Coefficients: Estimate (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST 3.31044 0.46975 2.32985 Std. Error 0.52732 0.09486 0.52988 0.77386 0.09805 t value 6.278 4.952 4.397 -6.909 4.001 Pr(>|t|) 5.71e-08 *** 7.35e-06 *** 5.07e-05 *** 5.31e-09 *** 0.00019 ***

EXCHANGE -5.34694 OIL 0.39228

---Table 3. The estimated coefficients with standard error for Access Bank. Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 Residual standard error: 0.2258 on 55 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: 0.827, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8144 F-statistic: 65.71 on 4 and 55 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 > anova(lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)) Analysis of Variance Table

Response: NSEASI Df PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL Residuals 1 1 1 1 55 Sum Sq 7.2169 0.3667 5.0055 0.8164 2.8051 Mean Sq 7.2169 0.3667 5.0055 0.8164 0.0510 F value 141.5014 7.1897 98.1435 16.0077 Pr(>F) < 2.2e-16 *** 0.0096600 ** 7.798e-14 *** 0.0001902 ***

Table 4. Anova table for Access bank.

--Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 > plot(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)

NSEASI

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1.0

1.5 OIL

2.0

2.5

5.3 Bayesian Linear Regression Analysis using R-package. > library(MCMCpack) Loading required package: coda Loading required package: lattice Loading required package: MASS ## ## Markov Chain Monte Carlo Package (MCMCpack) ## Copyright (C) 2003-2013 Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, and Jong Hee Park ## ## Support provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation ## (Grants SES-0350646 and SES-0350613) ## Warning messages:

1: package MCMCpack was built under R version 2.15.3 2: package coda was built under R version 2.15.3 > M6<-MCMCregress(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL) > summary(M6) Iterations = 1001:11000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 1 Sample size per chain = 10000 1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL sigma2 3.31131 0.47069 2.33433 -5.35102 0.39044 0.05303 SD 0.53659 0.09694 0.53859 0.78375 0.09988 0.01061 Naive SE 0.0053659 0.0009694 0.0053859 0.0078375 0.0009988 0.0001061 Time-series SE 0.0053659 0.0009694 0.0056140 0.0078375 0.0009988 0.0001168

Table 5. The estimated coefficients for Access Bank using Bayesian Regression Model.

2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL sigma2 2.25156 0.28003 1.28593 -6.88844 0.19330 0.03612 25% 2.95241 0.40412 1.97042 -5.87923 0.32454 0.04546 50% 3.31539 0.47118 2.34178 -5.35285 0.39170 0.05168 75% 3.66211 0.53532 2.70126 -4.83245 0.45712 0.05898 97.5% 4.36502 0.66045 3.38008 -3.82332 0.58544 0.07756

>plot(M6,trace=FALSE)

6.0 UBA PLC 6.1 Simple Linear Regression using R-package. > data2<-read.table("C:\\Users\\shakirudeen\\Desktop\\uba.txt",header=T) > data2 > attach(data2) > lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)

Call: lm(formula = NSEASI ~ PRICE + INTEREST + EXCHANGE + OIL) Coefficients (Intercept) 1.6753 PRICE 0.4002 INTEREST 1.3577 EXCHANGE -2.7630 OIL 0.2790

Table 8. The estimated coefficients for UBA.

> summary(lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)) Call: lm(formula = NSEASI ~ PRICE + INTEREST + EXCHANGE + OIL)

Residuals: Min 1Q Median -0.01378 3Q 0.05101 Max 0.36808

-0.21473 -0.07511
Table 9.

Coefficients: Estimate (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL 1.67530 0.40024 1.35771 -2.76303 0.27902 Std. Error t value 0.30128 0.02590 0.27000 0.43410 0.05058 5.561 15.455 5.028 -6.365 5.516 Pr(>|t|) 8.15e-07 *** < 2e-16 *** 5.60e-06 *** 4.12e-08 *** 9.59e-07 ***

---Table 10. The estimated coefficients with standard error for UBA. Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1

Residual standard error: 0.1164 on 55 degrees of freedom

Multiple R-squared: 0.9532, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9497 F-statistic: 279.8 on 4 and 55 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16 > anova(lm(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL))

Analysis of Variance Table Response: NSEASI Df PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL Residuals 1 1 1 1 55 Sum Sq 13.8116 0.0006 0.9472 0.4126 0.7457 Mean Sq 13.8116 0.0006 0.9472 0.4126 0.0136 F value 1018.7482 0.0418 69.8640 30.4308 Pr(>F) < 2.2e-16 *** 0.8387 2.280e-11 *** 9.587e-07 ***

Table 11. Anova table for UBA.

--Signif. codes: 0 *** 0.001 ** 0.01 * 0.05 . 0.1 1 > plot(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL)

NSEASI

1.0

1.5

2.0

1.0

1.5 OIL

2.0

2.5

6.2 Bayesian Linear Regression Analysis using R-package. > library(MCMCpack) Loading required package: coda Loading required package: lattice Loading required package: MASS ## ## Markov Chain Monte Carlo Package (MCMCpack) ## Copyright (C) 2003-2013 Andrew D. Martin, Kevin M. Quinn, and Jong Hee Park ## ## Support provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation ## (Grants SES-0350646 and SES-0350613) ##

Warning messages: 1: package MCMCpack was built under R version 2.15.3 2: package coda was built under R version 2.15.3 > M6<-MCMCregress(NSEASI~PRICE+INTEREST+EXCHANGE+OIL) > summary(M6) Iterations = 1001:11000 Thinning interval = 1 Number of chains = 1 Sample size per chain = 10000

1. Empirical mean and standard deviation for each variable, plus standard error of the mean: Mean (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL Sigma2 1.67580 0.40046 1.35941 -2.76445 0.27802 0.01411 SD 0.306723 0.026465 0.275462 0.440716 0.051560 0.002822 Naive SE 3.06e-03 2.647e-04 2.755e-03 4.407e-03 5.156e-04 2.822e-05 Time-series SE 3.067e-03 2.647e-04 2.755e-03 4.407e-03 5.156e-04 3.109e-05

Table 12. The estimated coefficients with standard error for UBA using Bayesian Regression Model.

2. Quantiles for each variable: 2.5% (Intercept) PRICE INTEREST EXCHANGE OIL sigma2 1.070025 0.348276 0.824582 -3.623964 0.175582 0.009611 25% 1.4706 0.3827 1.1724 50% 1.67813 0.40066 1.36324 75% 1.87632 0.41820 1.54945 97.5% 2.27812 0.45158 1.89541

-3.0635 -2.76876 0.2432 0.0121 0.27886 0.01375

-2.46834 -1.90566 0.31263 0.01569 0.37938 0.02064

>plot(M6,trace=FALSE)

Density of (Intercept)
5 10 15 1.2

Density of PRICE

0.0

0.6

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.05086

N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.004446

Density of INTEREST
1.2 0.8

Density of EXCHANGE

0.0

0.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.0

0.4

-4

-3

-2

-1

N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.04628

N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.07404

Density of OIL
0 2 4 6 150

Density of sigma2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0 50

0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.000451

N = 10000 Bandw idth = 0.008662

7.0 Summary of finds, Conclusion and Recommendation. 7.1 Summary of finds and Conclusion

In this study, analysis of data extracted from Nigeria Stock Exchange was subjected to investigate the relationship between the respond variable All-share Index and daily price of stock, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price of the banking sector of the Nigeria Stock Exchange; case study of two banks Access Bank Plc, and United Bank For Africa (UBA) Plc.

The result of the simple linear regression is very similar to the Bayesian Regression as shown in the table below. Although more computationally intensive, the Bayesian Regression is similarly easy to implement and automatically provides interval estimates for all parameters, including the standard error. By the results of the analysis for the two banks the estimated coefficients are statistically significant and the price of stock, Lending rate and oil price have positive effect on the response variable All-share Index that is, as all the performance metrics increase All-share Index increases except the Exchange rate; as the exchange rate goes down All-share Index increases and vice versa. SLR Intercept Price of stock Interest Rate Exchange Rate Oil price 3.31044 0.46975 2.32985 -5.34694 0.39228 Std. Error 0.52732 0.09486 0.52988 0.77386 0.09805 BLR 3.31131 0.47069 2.33433 -5.35102 0.39044 Std. Error 0.53659 0.09694 0.53859 0.78375 0.09988

Table 14. The estimated coefficients with standard error (Std. Error) for Access Bank Plc. Using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR).

SLR Intercept Price of stock Interest Rate Exchange Rate Oil price 1.67530 0.40024 1.35771 -2.76303 0.27902

Std. Error 0.30128 0.02590 0.27000 0.43410 0.05058

BLR 1.67580 0.40046 1.35941 -2.76445 0.27802

Std. Error 0.306723 0.026465 0.275462 0.440716 0.051560

Table 15. The estimated coefficients with standard error (Std. Error) for UBA Plc. Using Simple Linear Regression (SLR) and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR).

Note: that All-share Index is an arbitrary number used in Stock Exchange for evaluation purpose.

7.2 Recommendation. Based on the information gathered and findings from the analysis carried out in this study, the following recommendations are suggested. 1) There is need for the federal government to commence buying of shares of the banks on the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE). When these shares are purchased, they will serve twin purpose- being investment for the government which it can hold, earn returns and later resell and increase the demand segment of the capital market following the upward movement of both the market capitalization and the All-share Index. 2) There is need for advertisement for the banks involve being their public offer (IPO) so that more people may participate in the purchasing of their shares which will increase the percentage of their All-share Index. 3) The banks should not be over expose to the capital market because this significantly increases the quantum of banks non- performing loans which invariably led to loss of depositors fund with the banks. 4) The government fiscal policy on exchange rate, bank lending rate (interest rate) and oil price should be look into because of the significant of its values in the profit of the banks.

REFERENCE

[1] Box, G. E. P., Hunter W. G., and Hunter J. S. (1978): Statistics for Experimenters. John Wiley. [2] Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern H. S. and Rubin, D. B. (1995): Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall. [3] Kass, R. E. and Steffy, D. (1989): Approximate Bayesian inference in conditionally independent hierarchical models (parametric empirical Bayes models). J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 84:717-726.

4] Lindley, D. V. and Smith, A. F. M. (1972): Bayes estimates for the linear model (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc . Ser B 34: 1-41.

[5] R Development Core Team (2007). R: A language and environment for statistical

computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org.

[6] Snedecor, G. W. and Cochran, W. G. (1989). Statistical Methods, 8th edition. IOWA State University Press, Ames. IOWA.

[7] Tanner, M. A. (1996): Tools for Statistical Inference . Springer-Verlag

[8] Venables, W. N. and Replay, D. B. (2002). Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS . Springer, New York.

APENDIX
ACCESS BANK PLC INTEREST RATE 1.0000 0.9739 0.9077 0.9899 0.9723 0.9947 1.0096 0.9184 0.9899 1.0096 1.0091 0.9189 0.9723 0.9675 0.9541 0.9616 0.9792 0.9685

S/NO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

NSEASI 1.0000 0.8738 0.7844 0.7686 0.9518 1.0761 0.9427 0.9008 0.8212 0.8520 0.8035 0.7818 0.8993 0.8989 0.8853 0.8752 0.9135 0.9464

PRICE 1.0000 0.9503 0.8776 0.832 1.0103 1.2459 1.0279 0.8267 0.8136 0.8375 0.7890 0.7899 0.1564 0.1492 0.1395 0.1324 0.1337 0.1396

EXCHANGE RATE 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997 1.0001 1.0001 0.9940 0.9747 0.9749 0.9736 0.9708 0.9708 0.9657 0.9593 0.9572 0.9571 0.9571

OIL PRICE 1.0000 1.1156 1.1531 1.0375 1.0656 1.0953 1.1143 0.9589 1.0848 1.0381 1.0075 1.1192 1.0836 1.1076 1.2333 1.2461 1.2364 1.3185

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

1.0183 1.1920 1.2383 1.2427 1.2235 1.2300 1.3183 1.5093 1.5560 1.7363 1.7938 1.9220 1.9379 1.9594 1.9373 1.9170 1.9876 2.0661 2.1883 2.3710 2.4384 2.3281 2.3017 2.1249 2.0158 1.8036 1.8048 1.5682 1.3137 1.1261 1.0000 0.8738 0.7844 0.7686 0.9518 1.0761 0.9427 0.9008 0.8212 0.8520 0.8035

0.1404 0.1563 0.1653 0.3212 0.4102 0.3908 0.3987 0.5361 0.6228 0.8112 0.9895 1.0771 1.0650 1.0548 1.0548 1.0938 1.0954 1.1952 1.3234 1.3491 1.3349 1.2094 1.1146 1.0065 0.9542 0.7896 0.7161 0.5817 0.4611 0.3596 0.3277 0.2448 0.2743 0.2795 0.4188 0.5341 0.3909 0.3475 0.3272 0.3797 0.3666

0.9925 0.9808 0.9877 0.9979 0.9984 0.9952 0.9973 0.9941 1.0091 0.9909 0.9157 0.9995 0.9792 0.9744 0.9744 0.9712 0.9755 0.9712 0.9883 0.9776 0.9419 0.9984 0.9552 0.9109 0.9557 0.9157 1.0251 1.0256 1.0117 1.1296 1.0789 1.2592 1.2752 1.2357 1.2192 1.2075 1.2160 1.2293 1.2251 1.2267 1.2320

0.9566 0.9562 0.9559 0.9558 0.9558 0.9559 0.9558 0.9557 0.955 0.9537 0.9505 0.9496 0.9476 0.9256 0.9377 0.9269 0.8967 0.8798 0.8787 0.8786 0.8783 0.8780 0.8777 0.8775 0.8772 0.8770 0.8769 0.8768 0.8770 0.9714 1.0748 1.0968 1.1015 1.0975 1.1021 1.1086 1.1117 1.1357 1.1417 1.1173 1.1302

1.3169 1.1357 1.0521 1.0607 1.1095 0.9721 1.0442 1.1213 1.2163 1.2341 1.2802 1.3759 1.3150 1.4197 1.5181 1.5181 1.7003 1.6660 1.6909 1.7347 1.8953 2.0126 2.2850 2.4561 2.5114 2.1514 1.8536 1.3236 0.9523 0.7388 0.7950 0.7925 0.8762 0.9608 1.0905 1.3083 1.2362 1.3656 1.2856 1.3908 1.4601

60

0.7818

0.4034

1.2512

1.1202

1.4165

UBA PLC S/NO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 NSEASI 1.0000 0.8631 0.7837 0.7587 0.9272 1.0714 0.9368 0.8968 0.8157 0.8449 0.7979 0.7754 0.8913 0.8909 0.8774 0.8674 0.9054 0.9380 1.0092 1.1814 1.2273 1.2316 1.2126 1.2191 1.3066 1.4959 1.5422 1.7208 1.7778 1.9049 PRICE 1.0000 0.9331 0.8727 0.8247 0.9766 1.2379 1.0323 0.8232 0.8049 0.8283 0.7837 0.7820 0.7062 0.6640 0.6498 0.6974 0.7420 0.7697 0.8027 1.0475 1.2664 1.4314 1.3792 1.3788 1.6050 2.0831 2.0972 2.0972 2.1281 2.5679 INTEREST RATE 1.0000 0.9739 0.9077 0.9899 0.9723 0.9947 1.0096 0.9184 0.9899 1.0096 1.0091 0.9189 0.9723 0.9675 0.9541 0.9616 0.9792 0.9685 0.9925 0.9808 0.9877 0.9979 0.9984 0.9952 0.9973 0.9941 1.0091 0.9909 0.9157 0.9995 EXCHANGE RATE 1.0000 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9997 1.0001 1.0001 0.9940 0.9747 0.9749 0.9736 0.9708 0.9708 0.9657 0.9593 0.9572 0.9571 0.9571 0.9566 0.9562 0.9559 0.9558 0.9558 0.9559 0.9558 0.9557 0.9550 0.9537 0.9505 0.9496 OIL PRICE 1.0000 1.1156 1.1531 1.0375 1.0656 1.0953 1.1143 0.9589 1.0848 1.0381 1.0075 1.1192 1.0836 1.1076 1.2333 1.2461 1.2364 1.3185 1.3169 1.1357 1.0521 1.0607 1.1095 0.9721 1.0442 1.1213 1.2163 1.2341 1.2801 1.3759

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

1.9207 1.942 1.9201 1.8999 1.9699 2.0477 2.1689 2.3499 2.4167 2.3074 2.2812 2.106 1.9978 1.7876 1.7887 1.5543 1.3021 1.1161 0.9911 0.866 0.7774 0.7618 0.9433 1.0666 0.9343 0.8928 0.8139 0.8444s 0.7963 0.7748

2.9766 2.9416 2.9345 2.9213 2.9358 2.7062 2.7634 2.761 2.7232 2.8921 3.2763 1.8548 1.7688 1.5453 1.5439 1.2372 0.9342 0.7788 0.5766 0.4917 0.4541 0.4883 0.7802 0.8142 0.6857 0.6524 0.6755 0.7248 0.6494 0.6168

0.9792 0.9744 0.9744 0.9712 0.9755 0.9712 0.9883 0.9776 0.9419 0.9984 0.9552 0.9109 0.9557 0.9157 1.0251 1.0256 1.0117 1.1296 1.0789 1.2592 1.2752 1.2357 1.2192 1.2075 1.2160 1.2293 1.2251 1.2267 1.2320 1.2512

0.9476 0.9256 0.9377 0.9269 0.8967 0.8798 0.8787 0.8786 0.8783 0.8780 0.8777 0.8775 0.8772 0.8770 0.8769 0.8768 0.8770 0.9714 1.0748 1.0968 1.1015 1.0975 1.1021 1.1086 1.1117 1.1357 1.1417 1.1173 1.1302 1.1202

1.3150 1.4197 1.5181 1.5181 1.7003 1.6660 1.6909 1.7347 1.8953 2.0126 2.2850 2.4561 2.5114 2.1514 1.8536 1.3236 0.9523 0.7388 0.7950 0.7925 0.8762 0.9608 1.0905 1.3083 1.2362 1.3656 1.2856 1.3908 1.4601 1.4165