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T
VOL. XXII No. 16

M
Monday, 25 Feb. 3 Mar. 2013

S
Pages 18 Rs.12

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION

Market awaits Budget

By Sanjay R. Bhatia As indicated in the last issue, the markets remained under pressure as the CNX Nifty inched closer to its 100-day SMA. Selling pressure continued on the bourses amidst negative domestic and global market sentiment. However, the breadth of the market for the week remained positive amidst higher volumes. The global market sentiment remained subdued on the back of fresh concerns over the Eurozone and Federal Reserve indicating that quantitative measures would be discontinued in the future. Incidentally, the FIIs remained net buyers in the cash and the derivatives segments but they have also started selling. Domestic institutional investors, however, continued to press sales and were net sellers during the course of the week. Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions continued to weigh on the market sentiment and continue to hold good. The Stochastic, MACD, RSI and KST are all placed below their respective averages on the daily and weekly charts. The Nifty is below its 50-day SMA, which is a short term negative for the markets. Moreover, it is likely to breach the 100-day SMA also in the near future. The negative divergence pattern formed on the Nifty still holds good and a sign of worry for the markets. These negative technical conditions would lead to further selling pressure. However, the prevailing positive technical conditions also continue to hold good. The Stochastic is placed in the oversold zone on the weekly charts, which would lead to intermediate bouts of short covering. The Nifty is placed above its 100day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Niftys 50-day SMA is placed above the Niftys 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA, the latter being called the Golden Cross breakout. These positive conditions would lead to short covering and selective buying support at lower levels. The market sentiment remains negative. Now, it is important that the markets witness buying support at regular intervals for the Nifty to move above the 50-day SMA. Till such time, selling pressure is likely to be witnessed and the markets could test the 5816 support level. Pull backs and relief rallies should be used as an opportunity to unwind long positions and add short positions till the Nifty closes above its 50-day SMA. The markets are likely to remain volatile and choppy due to the impending F&O expiry and Union Budget both on Thursday 28 February 2013. The Union Budget remains the next big trigger. In the meanwhile, the markets would take cues from the news flow on the Union Budget, global markets, RupeeDollar exchange rate and crude oil prices. Technically on the upside, the BSE Sensex faces resistance at the 19603, 19811, 20510, and 21005 levels and seeks support at the 18309, 18290, 17667, 17429 and 17250
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levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 5816, 5747 and 5571 while it faces resistance at 5885, 5966, 6158, 6313 and 6358 levels. Investors should wait & watch.

BAZAR.COM

Making sense of the Sensex!!

By Fakhri H. Sabuwala Union Budget 2013-14 is round the corner and almost all sectors are putting forward their demands to revive their fortunes. The FM will find it difficult to please them all more so when his focus is on trimming the fiscal risks, improving the investment climate, reducing interest rates and kick start growth. In short, the market which had run quite well in January 2013 displays a fatigue syndrome and the FM needs to address this urgently. Since September 2012, the government has shown a resolve to reintroduce reforms in a bid to cut the outgoes and control the deficit. The fiscal and trade deficits are two edged swords which the FM needs to hold and tread cautiously. The reforms agenda, it is believed, may lose pace in the budget as the FM may have to adopt populist measures as this is the Congress last chance before the general polls to woo the voters. The market is turning listless every passing day and the FII interest, too is dwindling recording a net outflow on Tuesday, 19 February 2013. This is possibly because of the rally in western markets which attract their funds. The budget needs to address together with its resolve to buoy growth alongwith the RBI. Markets cannot run ahead of the real economy only for a while but not for long. If the real economy fails to keep the faith of the markets, they will run down as quickly as they have run up. In case such an eventuality, 2013 may be worse than 2011 and 2012. The ball is now in the FM's court and he has to ensure that the real economy does not disappoint. What has kept the Sensex and Nifty flying high was the robust FII inflows. The $8 billion inflow in January and February 2013 has shaped the rally despite the continuous sale by DIIs. The drastic fall in the holdings of retail investors is also a cause of great worry as it points to the eroding faith in the allocation of savings to equity. If Indian markets, despite such a large population, cannot attract savings to the capital market and increase the footfalls on Dalal Street, we shall be at the brutal mercy of the FIIs. The Rajiv Gandhi scheme of tax exempt investments lacked all the
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characteristics to highlight the wealth creation strategies and its failure is evident. But improving transparency in corporate governance by company managements can instill confidence among investors and help the fruits of investment grow and spread. The budget this time needs to make the monetary and fiscal policy work in tandem. Reforms can't work if not taken far enough. The multi brand retail FDI bill, over which such a storm was raised, is yet to take off thanks to the conditions for entry being too restrictive. The marginal diesel price hike every month will not have favourable impact on the economy as it lacks the strong dose of slashing subsidies, to decontrol fuel price and deregulate the oil sector. Hurdles to capital infusion and capex limits on projects must be dismantled to foster investment-led growth. The RBI has in its recent report listed some of the problems that the economy is saddled with infrastructure deficit, coal shortage, difficult access to green clearances and land. Without regulatory streamlining and promotion of competition, we can expedite neither industrialisation nor capacity building, be it roads, ports or power installations. In a country with an enviable coal reserves, the coal industry remains a corruption ridden mess. GST has been on the FM's agenda for the last seven years but is being postponed each time. The dominance of FIIs in the secondary market reminds one of the days of The East India Company. It is now reckoned that FIIs own 20% of Indian stocks and this accounts for 44% of the market's free float. That's really huge! FII ownership of Indian equities is thus at an all time high. From a technical perspective, this highlights the vulnerability of Indian stocks to global risk-off trade. The vulnerability extends to the Rupee as well as over large current account deficit is funded mainly by capital flows and underscores the need for the government to ensure revival in growth. But such a revival is distant due to the limited policy flexibility, both fiscal and monetary, to stimulate growth in the near term. The parliament session is on and in 34 working days it needs to table over 70 bills. Pray the nation comes before mudslinging and washing dirty linen in public by political parties. Pray the economy is put back on track and recovers a portion of its lost glory. If this is done, the Sensex may find sense at least. Otherwise, it will be senseless!

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Sensex support at 19100 crucial

By Hitendra Vasudeo Last week, the BSE Sensex opened at 19496.25, attained a high at 19742.41 and fell to a low of 19289.69 before it finally closed the week at 19317 and thereby showed a net fall of 151 points on a week-to-week basis. We had suggested to sell on a rise to 19524-19666 against this we saw a high of 19742 which later fell to a low of 19289. Traders who managed to sell at 19524 or above during the week benefited. If the same strategy was applied on the Nifty, traders would have booked repeat profits. Weekly support will be at 19156 and 18704 while weekly resistance will remain at 19449, 19609 and 19800 levels. A trend-line and channel breakdown has been witnessed. Therefore, a correction of the last corresponding rally from 15748 to 20203 will be seen. The 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the last corresponding rise is placed at 19149 and 18534 respectively. The balance 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are placed at 17972 and 17448. Stochastic, which is fast to react to price has hit the oversold zone whereas the RSI exited the overbought zone and is falling. If the Stochastic exits the oversold zone, a pullback may emerge to create a lower top against 20203. A fall and close below 19100 may extend the slide towards 18534, 17972 and 17448. BSE Mid Cap Index A rise and weekly close above 6800 can mark a reversal of the correction. BSE Small Cap Index A rise and weekly close above 6850 can mark a momentary end to the correction. Support at 6336 and 6132 will be tested and if a recovery is seen in small caps, then it will be from either of these support levels. Wave Tree
Wave Tree Wave I Wave II Wave III Wave IV Month Dec Feb Mar Jan Year 1979 1986 1998 2008 Sensex 113 656 390 21206 Month Feb Mar Jan Feb Year 1986 1998 2008 2012 Sensex 656 390 21206 18523 Remark In progress

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Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV Wave IV

Wave A Wave B Wave C Wave C Wave C Wave C

A B B B

Jan Mar Nov Dec Feb Aug

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012

21206 8047 21108 15135 18523 15748

Mar Nov Dec Feb Aug Jan

2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013

8047 21108 15135 18523 15748 20203

Could have ended Waiting for Confirmation

a b c

Conclusion Weakness would continue below 19100. Strategy for the week Traders short on the Sensex and index related stocks may keep the stop loss at 19800. If the opening is above 19100 and the Sensex falls below 19100, then sell with the high of the day as stop loss or 19800 whichever is higher.
WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Scrips Last Close Stop Loss Level 2 Buy Price
SUN PHARMA WOCKHARDT HCL TECHNOLOGIES BAJAJ HOLDING BERGER PAINTS 811.00 1931.00 720.00 970.00 202.05 777.0 1755.0 689.0 952.0 183.1 787.3 1807.3 695.3 953.0 186.7

Center Point Buy Price

800.7 1878.7 713.7 969.0 198.4

Level 3 Book Profit

824.3 2002.3 738.3 986.0 213.7

Level 4 Book Profit

861.3 2197.3 781.3 1019.0 240.6

Weekly Relative Reversal Strength Value

Up Trend Date

69.0 63.9 63.4 63.3 62.6

765.3 1811.3 694.3 967.8 183.8

08-02-13 01-02-13 15-02-13 22-02-13 18-01-13

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Scrips Last Close Level 1 Cover Short
B.O.C. ABB ALSTOM PROJECTS BHARAT FORGE SIEMENS 298.45 585.90 332.00 218.55 547.40 246.0 489.0 247.8 199.0 504.7

Level 2 Cover Short

284.8 554.7 310.7 213.5 536.4

Center Point Sell Price

309.9 589.3 352.4 222.9 557.2

Level 3 Sell Price

323.6 620.5 373.7 227.9 568.2

Stop Loss

Weekly Relative Reversal Strength Value

Down Trend Date

335.0 623.9 394.0 232.3 578.0

22.01 24.18 24.43 25.82 25.98

320.19 621.97 346.50 223.12 594.05

25-01-13 18-01-13 11-01-13 11-01-13 11-01-13

PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Scrips
793REC22 HIND RECTIFIERS CHOICE INTERNAT.

BSE Code
961743 504036 531358

Last Close
1099.00 69.30 53.00

Buy Price
1084.00 65.20 52.90

Buy On Rise
1099.00 70.00 53.40

Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2

1082.00 62.00 51.70 1109.5 74.9 54.5 1126.5 82.9 56.2

Risk Reward
0.62 0.77 1.12

BUY LIST
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Scrip
BLUE DART EXPRESS MCLEOD RUSSEL (I) TATA CONSULT. SER

Last Close
2285.00 383.00 1454.45

Buy Price
2113.55 370.24 1416.37

Buy Price
2057.50 365.08 1401.97

Buy Price
359.91

Stop Loss
343.20

Target 1
2588.6 414.0 1538.3

Target 2
3063.6 457.7 1660.3

2001.45 1820.00

1387.58 1341.00

EXIT LIST
Scrip
BOSCH CITY UNION BANK IPCA LABS ITC JK LAKSHMI CEM. KARUR VYSYA BNK M&M FINANCE SERV. MRF NITIN FIRE PROTECT

Last Close
9011.00 55.90 475.55 292.05 130.40 482.30 199.15 12358.00 64.25

Sell Price
9029.88 58.74 496.18 298.48 134.02 503.68 205.33

Sell Price
9070.00 59.72 506.65 300.83 136.62 511.55 208.32

Sell Price
9110.12 60.71 517.12 303.17 139.23 519.42 211.32

Stop Loss
9240.00 63.90 551.00 310.75 147.65 544.90 221.00

Target 1
8689.9 50.4 407.5 278.6 112.0 437.0 180.0 11040.5 57.7

Target 2
8349.9 42.0 318.8 258.8 89.9 370.3 154.6 9489.5 49.1

12591.48 12774.50 12957.52 13550.00 66.29 67.30 68.31 71.60

TOWER TALK
* Cost of consumer durables will rise by 5% to 15% to meet the rising import cost of components and rising labour bills.
But margins will improve, which makes this segment attractive. * Tata's Air Asia honeymoon is the turning of a new leaf in the Aviation sector. With the new entity on a firm saddle, the company will indulge in a lot of M&As in the sector. * Power will be the new sunrise industry post budget. Power generation, transmission and distribution companies shall compete in meeting the deadline of raising capacity. * Gold has seemingly bottomed out around Rs.29K/10gms and silver around Rs.53K/1kg. Both these precious metals will gradually recover and may give 10% to 20% rise respectively by the end of 2013. * JP Morgan is bearish on scrips in emerging markets. It recommends option purchases against stock losses and advises selling scrips that are most sensitive. * Sun Pharma is in a new stratosphere of its own and insiders believe the scrip is heading to Rs.1000. * Maruti Suzuki will face competition from Honda and Hyundai who are introducing new models to cut into the markets of D'zire and Swift. * An Ahmedabad based analyst recommends Daichi Karkaria, Ludlow Jute, Zenith Fibre and Jenburkt Pharma as prebudget hot buys. * Tulip Telecoms CDR package may be over within the next few months.

* ARSS Infrastructure has come out with a better set of numbers on both the topline and bottomline after the
implementation of its CDR package. * Analysts are bullish on the Infrastructure sector and IVRCL is a stock to be watched.

* Southern Online Bio Tech has come out with encouraging Q3 results and the stock is expected to rise in 6-7 months.

BEST BET

Firstsource Solutions Ltd. (Code: 532809)

By Rupesh M. Daga Firstsource Solutions Ltd. (FSL) was promoted by ICICI and incorporated as ICICI Infotech Upstream Ltd. in December 2001 to provide BPO services. Over the years, the company grew through various acquisitions and venture into new verticals and service offerings. To expand its offerings and capabilities, FSL went public in February 2007 prior to which it was known as ICICI One Source.
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CMP: Rs.10.89
Review

Accelya Kale recommended under Best Bet on 28 January 2013 at Rs.335 zoomed to Rs.408 in a short period and has reverted to Rs.333. It came out with encouraging Q2FY13 results with sales of Rs.74 crore and net profit of Rs.21 crore translating into an EPS of Rs.14. For H1FY13 ended 31 December 2012, it posted a net profit of Rs.41 crore with an EPS of Rs.27. Our estimated EPS of Rs.50 for FY14 is, therefore, likely to be achieved by FY14 itself. We recommend hold onto this stock and add more at current levels. 5

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Recently, the company was acquired by the RP-Sanjiv Goenka group promoted CESC Ltd. The company offers business process outsourcing (BPO) services across healthcare, banking & financial services, telecommunications and media industries services include customer acquisition, customer care, accounts receivable management and collections, transaction processing and business research and analytics. FSL has a very strong business presence in India, USA, UK and Philippines. It opened 6 new centres in FY12 taking the total number of centres to 48. The company works on a global delivery model and has 32,553 employees. North America continues to be the key market contributing 61% of its total revenue followed by UK 27% and India 12% in FY10. Its clientele includes five of the top 10 US banks; eight of the top 10 general purpose credit card issuers in USA, largest bank and mortgage lender in the UK; two of the top 10 US telecom companies; two of the top 5 mobile service providers in the UK; largest pay TV operator in Australia; three of the top 5 mobile service providers in India; five of the top 10 health insurers in USA, and over 800 hospitals in USA. We believe, post its acquisition by the Sanjiv Goenka promoted CESC, FSL would be able to pursue larger deal opportunities that it could not address earlier due to cash constraints. The companys high gearing resulted from its aggressive debt funded growth in the past. This is expected to come down significantly, thereby generating cash flows and an opportunity to improve margins and revenues. COMPANY PROFILE FSL is an innovative provider of customer centric business process services. With a network of 48 delivery centres spread across US, UK, Philippines, India and Sri Lanka, it provides consulting services with outsourcing solutions to organizations in the Healthcare, Communications, Banking, Financial Services and Insurance, and Publishing industry. Driven by its right shore delivery model with 70% employees located onshore and 30% offshore, the company ensures client proximity, better understanding of the domain as well as the market and effective communications for delivery excellence. Based on the industry verticals, FSL has split its business operations into 4 independent business units i.e. Healthcare, Telecommunications and Media, BFSI and Asia Business Unit. This restructuring has resulted in strong vertical domain focus and ability to address markets and customers. Clientele: FSL clients include 29 Forbes Global 2000 companies of which 18 are Fortune 500 companies, 6 FTSE 100 and 3 S&Ps Nifty 50 companies among others. Banking & Financial Services: Eight of the Top 10 general purpose credit card issuers in USA Leading issuer of prepaid debit cards in USA UKs largest retail bank and mortgage lender One of the Top 3 UK motor / auto insurer Two of the Top 5 Private Banks in India Healthcare: Five of the Top 10 Health insurance / managed care companies featured in US 1000+ hospitals. Telecommunications & Media: Four of the Top 10 Mobile / Wireless companies in developed markets Two of the Top 4 Broadband / High speed Internet companies in UK Largest Cable & Satellite TV operator in UK & Australia Three of the top 5 mobile companies in India. KEY HIGHLIGHTS Acquisition by CESC - The RP-Sanjiv Goenka gorups flagship electricity generation and distribution company, CESC Ltd. has acquired the controlling stake in FSL for Rs.640 crore in cash. This will help FSL reduce its debt and give the Goenka group an opportunity to diversify. The deal values FSL at Rs.795 crore on its expanded capital base. At its current stock price, the company has a market capitalization of Rs.737 crore. Most of its woes like low margins and high cost debt stemmed from the absence of a single identifiable promoter with whom the bankers could feel comfortable. With Sanjiv Goenka in, this will change now. Change in Strategy FSL changed its strategy six months ago and increased its focus on the Asia-Pacific region with finance, healthcare, and telecom as the major verticals. In the past few months, it has realigned these verticals as key service lines. It opened six new centres on a net basis in FY12 and has won new projects worth Rs.900 crore. The costs are expected to rationalise once the investments made in these business centres start fetching returns after these facilities come on stream.

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Improved Performance - The company reported improved performance in H1FY13 as revenues grew 32% over H1FY12. Operating EBIT was up by 76% and Profit after Tax was up 102% over H1FY12. Given the improvement in performance, FSLs share price has also responded positively. If we look at the historical data, FSL has consistently grown in all areas like manpower, clients, working centres, etc. Healthcare, which accounts for the largest percentage of revenue compared to other BPO providers, is expected to witness a boom on the back of US Healthcare reforms. If we look at the Q3FY13 results, FSL may post an EPS of Rs.3.5-4 for FY13. This is likely to rise in coming years and there are indications of a dividend in FY15. Even if it pays 20% dividend, which is really conservative for the BPO sector, this Rs.10 paid-up share may not be available at such attractive valuations for long. FINANCIALS Results: (Consolidated) (Rs. in crore) If we compare the performance of 9MFY13 to 9MFY12, Particulars Q3FY13 Q3FY12 9MFY13 9MFY12 FY12 the EPS has more than doubled and also surpassed the Revenue 713 577 2106 1633 2254 annual EPS of FY12. Superior performance, backed by Expenditure 661 556 1976 1568 2159 a strong group, makes a strong case for investment. Interest 19 16.9 57.5 41.0 51.7 PBT 43 9.3 118.8 50.8 76.0 Post its acquisition by the RP-Sanjiv Goenka led CESC Tax 2.9 2.3 12.7 11.5 13.7 Ltd., we believe the financial position of the company Net Profit 41.5 6.8 106.4 38.9 62.0 would improve considerably because of the backing of Equity 657 430 657 430 430 Reserves 1011 961 999 a big group. EPS 0.83 0.16 2.35 0.90 1.44 CESC, too, was a loss making company, when it was OPM (%) 25.89 7.01 22.18 NPM (%) 13.7 10.29 6.01 acquired by the RPG group is today Indias first fully integrated electrical utility company. The main problem facing FSL was its FCCB redemption, which is now behind it. Improvement in its operations and financials is expected going forward. We believe the stock could turn out to be a multi-bagger. RISKS & CONCERNS Foreign Exchange Fluctuations - Around 70% of the revenue of the company comes from outside India. Any adverse movement in the foreign exchange market could impact its earnings. Government Regulatory - As the company deals with various state governments, it faces regulatory and compliance risk. Weaker economies of key markets - Global, economies are facing pressures of sustenance and growth. The US & UK are the key markets of the company. However, USA is on the path to recovery and the company has started diversification into the Asia Pacific region to mitigate the risks.

STOCK ANALYSIS

GAIL (India) Ltd.: To energise your portfolio

By Devdas Mogili GAIL (India) Ltd. is a 29-year old New Delhi based company established in 1984 as a Central Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) under the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoP&NG). It is India's flagship gas transmission and marketing company with a global footprint. The Government of India (GoI) holds 57.35% stake in GAIL and it enjoys Maha Ratna status among PSUs. Mr. B. C. Tripathi is the chairman of the company. GAIL is engaged in the business of Natural Gas, LPG, Liquid Hydrocarbons and Petrochemicals. The company has also diversified into Exploration & Production (E&P), City Gas Distribution and is steadily developing its overseas presence. Having started as a natural gas transmission company in the late Eighties, the company has grown organically building a large network of Natural Gas pipelines over 9500 Km with a capacity of around 172 MMSCMD; two LPG Pipelines covering 2040 Km with a capacity of 3.3 MMTPA of LPG; seven gas processing plants for production of LPG and other Liquid Hydrocarbons with a production capacity of 1.4 MMTPA; and a gas based integrated Petrochemical plant of 410,000 TPA polymer capacity which is being expanded to 900,000 TPA. GAIL has 70% equity stake in Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Ltd. (BCPL), which is setting up a 280,000 TPA polymer plant in Assam. It is a co-promoter with 17% equity stake in ONGC Petro-additions Ltd. (OPaL), which is implementing a greenfield petrochemical complex of 1.1 MMTPA Ethylene capacity at Dahej in Gujarat. GAIL has 31.52% stake along with NTPC as equal partner in JV company, Ratnagiri Gas Power Project Ltd. (RGPPL) at Dabhol, which operates the largest gas based power generation facility in the country and is also setting up 5 MMTPA LNG terminal.
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Keeping in mind the requirement of growth and consolidation as well as opportunities arising out of New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) of Government of India, the company has moved upstream of the gas value chain i.e. Exploration & Production and has a stake in 31 E&P blocks including 2 overseas blocks in Myanmar. GAIL is a pioneer in the City Gas Distribution (CGD) business in India with Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (IGL) in Delhi and Mahanagar Gas Ltd. (MGL) in Mumbai. Besides IGL and MGL, GAIL has set up several JVs for CGD to supply gas to households, the transport sector and commercial consumers in various cities including Hyderabad, Agartala, Kanpur, Indore, Vadodara, Lucknow, Agra and Pune. In 2008, GAIL incorporated a wholly-owned subsidiary, GAIL Gas Ltd (GGL) to exclusively focus on city gas distribution business. GGL is authorized to implement CGD projects in Kota, Dewas, Sonepat & Meerut in the 1st round of bidding by the Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). Overseas Presence: As a strategy to expand its global footprint, GAIL has formed a wholly-owned subsidiary, GAIL Global (Singapore) Pte Ltd. in Singapore for pursuing overseas business opportunities including LNG and trading in petrochemicals. Another wholly-owned subsidiary, GAIL Global (USA) Inc. in Texas, USA has acquired 20% working interest in an unincorporated joint venture with Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. in the Eagle Ford shale acreage in Texas. It is an equity partner in two retail gas companies in Egypt namely, Fayum Gas Company (FGC) and National Gas Company (Natgas). GAIL is also an equity partner in a retail gas company involved in city gas and CNG business in China China Gas Holdings Ltd. (China Gas). Further, GAIL and China Gas have formed an equally owned joint venture company GAIL China Gas Global Energy Holdings Ltd. for pursuing gas sector opportunities primarily in China. GAIL is a part of consortium in two offshore E&P blocks in Myanmar and also holds participating interest in a joint venture company South East Asia Gas Pipeline Company Ltd. incorporated for transportation of gas to be produced from two blocks in Myanmar to China. To strengthen its foothold overseas, GAIL has made a joint bid with EDF Trading of France for Spanish oil & gas major Repsol's assets in Trinidad and Tobago. The company is also looking at Repsol's Canaport LNG terminal and Stream, a joint venture LNG marketing and transport company by Repsol and Gas Natural LNG. GAIL has a representative office in Cairo, Egypt to pursue business opportunities in Africa and Middle East. Diversification: As a part of its initiative for reducing its carbon footprint and creating a path of sustainable growth, GAIL is building a portfolio of renewable energy businesses. The company has successfully commissioned wind energy power projects of 118 MW across Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka and plans to set up 500 MW wind power capacity over the next 3-4 years. The Company also targets to set up over 300 MW of solar power generation capacity in a phased manner. Performance: Natural Gas continues to be the core business of GAIL. Major supplies of natural gas include fuel to power plants, feedstock for gas based fertilizer plants and LPG extraction. The Company has around 50% market share in gas marketing in India. Operations: For FY12, GAIL posted total revenue of Rs.40397.95 crore with a net profit of Rs.3653.84 crore netting an EPS of Rs.28.80. Financial Highlights: (Rs. in crore) Latest Results: The companys total Particulars Q3FY13 Q3FY12 9MFY13 9MFY12 FY12 income rose from Rs.11,294.15 crore in Total Income 12504.19 11294.15 35009.12 29909.55 40397.95 Q3FY12 to Rs.12,504.19 crore in Q3FY13. Total Expenses 10744.49 9696.77 30380.89 25438.34 35373.36 Its net profit rose to Rs.1,284.86 crore in Other Income 154.18 21.35 428.76 202.00 431.88 Fin Costs 55.18 20.73 140.08 64.14 116.46 Q3FY13 from Rs.1,091.42 crore in Tax Expenses 573.84 506.58 1512.89 1438.57 1686.17 Q3FY12. It recorded an EPS of Rs.10.13 Net Profit 1284.86 1091.42 3404.02 3170.50 3653.84 for Q3FY13 and Rs.26.84 for the 9 months Equity (FV: Rs.10) 1268.48 1268.48 1268.48 1268.48 1268.48 Re Ex Re Reserves 20356.00 ended 31 December 2012 (9MFY13). EPS 10.13 8.60 26.84 24.99 28.80 Financials: GAIL is a large-cap company with an equity capital of Rs.1268.48 crore and a share book value of Rs.170.48. It has a low debt:equity ratio of 0.19 with RoCE of 22.07% and RoNW of 17.88%. Share Profile: The face value of the GAIL share is Rs.10 and it hit a 52-week high/low Rs.401/Rs.303.10. At its current market price of Rs.341, the company has a market capitalization of Rs.43,261 crore. Dividends: GAIL has been paying dividends as follows: FY12 - 87%, FY11 - 75%, FY10 - 75%, FY09 - 70%, FY08 - 100%, FY07 - 100%, FY06 - 100%, FY05 - 80%, FY04 - 80%, FY03 - 70%, FY02 - 45%, FY01 - 40%, FY2000 - 30%, FY99 - 35%, FY98 30%. The GAIL management has recently approved 40% interim dividend for the FY13.

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Shareholding Pattern: The GoI holds 57.35% stake in the company while the balance 42.65% is held by the institutions, mutual funds and the investing public. Among mutual funds, ICICI Pru, IDFC, HDFC, Franklin India, UTI, DSP BR, Sundram, Templeton India, HSBC, Tata and SBI PSU Fund have added the GAIL share to their various schemes in January 2013. Prospects: As per studies, India is expected to be the third largest energy consumer after USA and China with favourable economic and social developments by 2025. Currently, India is the fourth largest energy consumer with over 4% of the world's total annual energy consumption. India's per capita energy consumption is significantly lower at 500 Kgoe compared to the current world average hovering around 1,800 Kgoe. At a GDP growth rate over 8% by 2031-32, it is expected that India's per capita energy consumption will be over 1,100 Kgoe. The share of natural gas in India's energy mix is around 11% against the world average of around 24%. Given the growth plans of the power, fertilizer and industrial segments, there exists a huge potential for increased consumption of natural gas in India, which has grown faster than any other fossil fuel in recent years. Natural gas consumption in India has witnessed an impressive CAGR of about 11.5% in the past few years. Power, Fertilizer, LPG, Steel and Petrochemicals have been the key consumption drivers of natural gas. This demand is largely met by domestic production and imports contributing around 30% as compared to over 75% imports in the case of oil. Given the advantages of natural gas in terms of efficiency, price and environmental impact, the demand for natural gas in India may reach 600 MMSCMD by the end of 13 th Five Year Plan in 2022 offering several opportunities for the development of the gas industry. Outlook: GAIL has embarked on 7500km pipeline network expansion for about Rs.30,000 crore. Of this, around 2,500 Kms has been completed so far. These pipelines are being built on an open access and common carrier principle. When commissioned, the total length of its pipeline network will be over 14,500 Kms with a total transmission capacity of about 300 MMSCMD. With the addition of this pipeline network, GAIL will cater to new demand centres and the LNG regasification facilities and lead to higher growth. Conclusion: GAIL is a GoI undertaking enjoying the Maha Ratna status. It is the market leader in the transmission of natural gas with about 74% market share. At its current market price of Rs.341, the GAIL share is discounts less than 13 times its nine monthly (9MFY13) EPS of Rs.26.84. In view of its highly encouraging results, Maha Ratna status, aggressive strategy, good dividend payout and bright prospects, the GAIL share is reasonably priced and may be added to ones portfolio for steady returns in the medium-to-long-term.

MARKET REVIEW

Union Budget to lead markets

By Devendra A. Singh The BSE Sensex (30-share index) settled at 19317.01 declining 151.14 points (-0.78%) whereas the CNX Nifty closed at 5850.30 lower by 37.10 points (-0.63%) for the week ended Friday, 22 February 2013. The BSE Small-Cap index was up +0.11% to close at 6564.76 and the BSE Mid-Cap index ended just higher by +0.02% to close at 6609.03. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. The bourses settled lower last week on profit booking. The Sensex gained in 3 out of the 5 trading sessions last week. Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, said that credible action is needed from all to ensure that the country is least affected by the formidable challenges posed by the global economic slowdown. Prime Ministers Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) chief, C. Rangarajan last week said, Amid the widening trade gap the Current Account Deficit (CAD) this year is likely to exceed 4.2% of GDP recorded in 2011-12. We expect the Q3FY13 figures will also be high but it could come down in the Q4. Trade deficit in January 2013 widened to $20 billion, the second highest rise ever in a month. The biggest trade gap of $21 billion was recorded in October 2012. India Ratings stated, economic growth may improve to 6.1% in the next financial year from the decade low of 5% in FY13 on the back of the reform measures announced after mid-September 2012. The rating agency also expects the aggregate state governments fiscal deficit to go up to 2.4% against the budget estimate of 2.1%. India Ratings has a stable outlook on state government guaranteed debt programme as it expects the credit quality of state governments to remain stable. This is despite the growth slowdown continuing in FY13. The agency estimates growth to revive to 6.1% in FY14, it said.

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India Ratings expects slippage in the aggregate fiscal deficit of the States to be 0.3% of the GDP from the budgeted fiscal deficit of 2.1% in 2012-13. Unlike the earlier episode of fiscal slippage in 2008-09, the slippage in the current year is expected to be low on absence of adverse shock of salary revision. The agency noted that both global and domestic headwinds p ulled down Indias economy growth to 6.2% in 2011 -12. However, the economic reform measures announced in mid-September 2012 have changed the sentiments. Their impact on macro parameters will be felt in 2013-14 while in 2012-13, they will help controlling fiscal slippage. The aggregate debt of the States in 2013-14 is likely to decline to 21.7% due to improved economic conditions. However, the fiscal slippage would not be significant to lead to debt insolvency, it said. Industrial growth in FY14 is likely to improve to 4.4% from 3.1% in FY13. On the global scenario, Moodys said the downside risks to the global economy had receded in the past th ree months though a number of dangers still remained. In its latest Global Macro Risk Scenario report, the agency said it expected economic growth to be slow in many countries. Colin Ellis, Moodys senior vice-president for Macro Financial Analysis asserted, While our central forecasts are little changed the downside risks have definitely abated over the past three months. However, we still expect a subdued global recovery with sub-trend growth in most advanced economies over the near term alongside a relatively soft pace of expansion in emerging markets as well. The ratings agency expects the real growth of the G20 countries around 2.9% in FY13 followed by 3.3% in FY14. It forecast growth in By G. S. Roongta USA but expects the Euro area as a whole to Investment Advisory Service is provided by Mr. G. S. Roongta, a stagnate during 2013. market veteran in fundamental analysis with over 25 years of Key indices registered minuscule gains on experience and who is well-known for his accurate forecasts Monday, 18 February 2013, on positive local since 1986. cues. The Sensex climbed marginally by 32.93 Under this service, at a charge of Rs.1000, Mr. Roongta will points (+0.17%) to close at 19501.08 whereas the identify 5 scrips for short-term investment, which can be Nifty was up 10.80 points (+0.18%) to close at 5898.20. reviewed twice upto a period of three months. Key indices climbed on Tuesday, 19 February You can meet Mr. Roongta at the Money Times office after 2013 as global stocks closed higher. The Sensex making prior appointment or you can consult him by eclimbed 134.64 points (+0.69%) to close at mail/phone. 19635.72. The Nifty was up 41.50 points To subscribe, you can deposit cheque/cash or transfer the amount via (+0.70%) to close at 5939.70. To subscribe, you can deposit cheque/cash or transfer the amount via RTGS/NEFT to the company bank account: Key indices settled flat on Wednesday, 20 RTGS/NEFT to the company bank account: (1) Time Communications (India) Ltd C/A 10043795661 at State Bank February 2013. The Sensex rose 7.03 points (1) Time Communications (India) Ltd C/A 10043795661 at State Bank of India, Fort Market Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC: SBIN0005347) (+0.04%) to close at 19642.75. The Nifty of India, Fort Market Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC: SBIN0005347) or or registered modest gains 3.35 points (+0.06%) to (2) Time Communications India Limited C/A 623505381145 at ICICI close at 5943.05. (2) Time Communications India Limited C/A 623505381145 at ICICI Bank Ltd., Fort Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC: ICIC0006235) Bank Ltd., Fort Branch, Fort, Mumbai 400 001 (IFSC: ICIC0006235) Key indices edged lower on Thursday, 21 After transfer, please advise us by telephone/e-mail mentioning the After transfer, please advise us by telephone/e-mail mentioning the February 2013 on profit booking by foreign electronic transfer number and date of the payment. electronic transfer number and date of the payment. investors. The Sensex skidded 317.39 points (We also have Portfolio Advisory Service, another product 1.62%) to close at 19325.36. The Nifty was down offering by Mr. Roongta under which he will review/restructure 90.80 points (-1.53%) to close at 5852.25. your portfolio based on his sound fundamental knowledge and Market performance settled flat ending slightly the current market scenario. He will advise you which stocks down on the last day of trading on Friday, 22 you can hold/exit, book profit/loss, switch to another stock and February 2013. The Sensex fell marginally 8.35 you will be charged as per the size of your portfolio. points (-0.04%) to mark a close at 19317.01. The Nifty was down 1.95 points (-0.03%) to close at Please note that both Investment Advisory Service and Portfolio 5850.30. Advisory Services are a one-time service only, so you can The Sensex tumbled 151.14 points to settle at continue subscribing to them as often you want (weekly or even 19317.01 for the week. The Budget Session of monthly) and we will try to ensure that we recommend new the Parliament commenced on Thursday, 21 stocks each time. February 2013.

Investment Advisory Service

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On the macro front, The Railway Budget FY13-14 is scheduled on 26 February 2013. The Economic Survey of India is to be presented on the table of Parliament on 27 February 2013. The Union Budget FY13-14 is scheduled for 28 February 2013. Market participants will be closely watching it and expect positive developments from this Union Budget that will help in reviving economic growth and the market sentiment.

GURU SPEAK

- By G.S. Roongta

Bull & bear tussle on till 28th Feb.

By G. S. Roongta The 820-point correction from the recent high of BSE Sensex 20203.66 made on 29 January 2013 witnessed over the earlier two weeks ended Friday, 16 February 2013, was significant in view of the running correction for the purpose of consolidation. This prompted me to headline my last article as Pre-budget panic is over. My forecast was contrary to what the majority of technical analysts had made. They saw the CNX Nifty correcting further upto 5600 expecting a weak undertone last week and further weakness dragging the Sensex down to 19100 or even break the psychological barrier of 19K. Strange indeed are the ways of technical analysts who see further weakness even after the market has already corrected enough in an ongoing bullish trend! As per their technical theory, one must get out before the market bounces back. As a result, those who had built up a bullish positions end up surrendering at these levels to avoid any further loss and lose out on the recovery, which is bound to surface once the correction is over. Technical experts thus hardly provide any moral courage to investors when the market witnesses a consolidation or correction. In my last article, I had emphatically stated that the chart theory is losing prominence as majority of G. S. Roongta investors only follow it for their trades in the F&O segment where it is most important to book profit or loss rather than sustain a galloping market or take a beating in a two-way fluctuations. In USA, technical analysts have often proved to be wrong in a two-way market fluctuations and investors have come back to rely on company fundamentals, which do not change frequently as far as corporate earnings are concerned. Readers are well aware that many punters fabricate chart interpretations for their own convenience or fancy. A well-known market player has been very bullish on Titan Industries and VIP Industries. But a year or so back, I had clearly stated that both these stocks were highly priced and recommended profit booking rather than holding onto them for further gains. Since then, Titan Industries has fallen to a low of Rs.204 from its 52-week high of Rs.314 and is hovering around Rs.255. Similarly, VIP Industries has lost its prominence altogether as it fell from a high of Rs.128 and is trading near to its 52-week low at Rs.71! Similarly, a popular TV channel was issuing buy calls for most Vijay Mallya owned company shares knowing fully well that his Kingfisher Airlines is in deep trouble incurring huge losses and with a heavy debt burden. Even after Mallya decided to sell his majority stake in United Spirits and United Holdings to turn into a minority stake holder, few analysts were still issuing Buy calls for United Spirits, United Holdings, United Breweries and also Kingfisher. But I was never convinced and recommended profit booking twice in this column as United Spirits (USL) was offering to buy-back the shares at around Rs.1400 per share. Yet the USL share kept on making new highs till Rs.2149 without any justification at all! All the United Group shares managed to touch new highs in the past three months but have now fallen considerably. United Spirits, after touching an all time high of Rs.2149 in November 2012 has tumbled to a low of Rs.1740 and is now trading at Rs.1813. United Breweries fell to Rs.580 after hitting a high of Rs.1023 in December 2012 followed by Kingfisher, which fell to Rs.11 after touching Rs.18 and United Holdings, which was ruling at a high of Rs.150+, is now trading near to its 52-week low at Rs.60. Anybody with financial muscle can rig stock prices and make them rise to dizzy heights temporarily. But it is very difficult to sustain these high levels in the long run. This is exactly what happened with these stocks as higher levels proved to be a mirage. I really fail to understand on what basis were analysts of this popular TV channel recommending the Mallya group shares at such fancy prices till a few weeks back. Viewers who bought these shares based on the bullish calls issued by these analysts are now in deep troubled water and may face further music if they decide to hold onto these shares till the banks take the final decision to sell their group stock holding in days to come. Because if the banks really start selling the stocks lying with them, the prices of the United

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Group shares will collapse like a house of cards. SEBI must enquire about such analysts and TV channels and check if they had any vested interest in these stocks. Similarly, the news of the stake sale in Jet Airways to Etihad Airlines resulted in its share price skyrocketing from Rs.410 level to touch a 52-week high of Rs.688 in just a few weeks while its 52-week low is Rs.268. This clearly shows that the share price was rigged by over 150% from its 52-week low level. The stock is now trading at Rs.527. The companys profitability will not jump by this stake sale as is being said to mislead investors. Besides, airlines are facing acute competition that has led to 20-25% reduction in air fares. Similar behaviour was witnessed in the shares of HDIL, Jain Irrigation, Jaiprakash Associates and Jubilant Foodworks, which tumbled from their recent highs. This is because rigging may impact share prices temporarily but without supporting fundamentals to back them, these stocks are unable to sustain the high levels in the long run. False promises, price rigging, rumours and investment recommendations are the tools that market players use to woo or attract investors and they exit once the game is over for them. SEBI is trying its best to catch hold of such manipulators but many of them remain unaffected. In view of the upcoming Union Budget, the market had turned extremely volatile last week. There is no fundamental justification in the price movement of shares but the rumours floating around in the market are doing their job and have affected the market sentiment. On Monday, 18 February 2013, the market opened at Sensex 19496.25 and rose to hit a high of 19554.48. But around noon the RBI Governor remarked that there is no room for reduction in interest rate in March so long as fiscal management does not improve or inflation does not decline further. On this news, the market pared all the gains of the day and fell to a low of 19462.92. Yet it managed to close in the green at 19501 with a gain of 32.93 points. It may be recalled that when the RBI Governor had made similar statements in mid-January 2013, I had lamented that such market sensitive news misguide investors and affect the market sentiment as a whole, which is indeed unfortunate. If Mr. Subbaraos statement in mid-January 2013 is taken at face value, then why did he bend down to relax interest rate & CRR by 25 basis points. Hence, people in high positions must refrain from comments before the scheduled meeting whether in favour or against. Again on Tuesday, 19 February 2013, the Sensex rose further to hit a high of 19671 and closed with a gain of 134.64 points to settle at 19635.72. Thus the market gained 30% of its lost ground of the past two weeks in just two trading days. On Wednesday, 20 February 2013, the Sensex had a gap up opening at 19717.94 and rose further to touch a high of 19742.42. But the market was unable to sustain this level and ended the day at 19642.75 with a gain of just 7 points. However, the market collapsed on Thursday, 21 February 2013 as the Asian market Hang Seng opened in the red by nearly 400-500 points. The exact reason for this was unknown till closing. The Sensex opened in red by nearly 100 points at 19549 and kept on losing further ground till it touched a low of 19289.70. The market finally settled at Sensex 19325.36 after losing 317.39 points. The market was in a state of panic with rumours that FIIs had unloaded heavily while few others said that the presidential speech in honour of the Parliaments opening budget session on 21 Fe bruary 2013 was not encouraging as far as the economy was concerned. On Friday, 22 February 2013, the market opened in the positive at 19341.90, rose to touch a high of 19401.75 but fell again to close at 19317 after losing 8.35 points. The Nifty ended the week at 5850.30 after losing 37.10 points on a week-to-week basis. The bulls-bears fight till 28 February 2012 is likely to be severe as 28 February is an important day for the market as it is also the expiry of the February 2013 F&O contracts and the Union Budget will also have its singular impact on the market. As cautioned last week, investors should stay away till the first week of March 2013 because by then the impact of the budget will be fairly clear. In view of these two important events, the market is expected to be volatile this week.

STOCK WATCH Apollo Hospitals (CMP: Rs.798.85, TGT: Rs.945)

- By Amit Kumar Gupta

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. (AHEL) was incorporated as a public limited company in 1979. Promoted by Dr. Prathap C. Reddy, it is the first company that pioneered the concept of corporate healthcare delivery in India. Today, AHEL is the leading private sector healthcare provider in Asia and owns and manages a network of speciality hospitals and clinics, a chain of Pharmacy retail outlets across the country and provides Consultancy Services for commissioning and managing the Speciality Hospitals. The company also played a pioneering role in helping India become a centre-of-excellence in global healthcare. The Apollo Hospitals group today has over 8,500 beds across 54 hospitals in India and overseas,
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neighborhood diagnostic clinics, an extensive chain of 1350 Apollo Pharmacies, a Medical BPO and health insurance services and clinical research divisions that are working on the cutting edge of medical science. In addition, the group's service offerings include healthcare at the patient's doorstep, clinical & diagnostic services, medical business process outsourcing, third party administration services and health insurance. To enhance its performance and service to customers, the company also makes available the services to support the business of healthcare; telemedicine services, education and training programmes, research services and a host of not- for- profit projects. AHELs Q3FY13 witnessed a healthy increase in overall sales as well as profitability. Net profit rose 24.72% at Rs.80.63 crore from Rs.64.65 crore in Q3FY12. Revenue in Q3FY13 rose 19.73% to Rs.855.79 crore from Rs.714.75 crore in Q3FY12. Q3FY13 EPS rose 20.54% at Rs.5.80 over Q3FY12. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax (PBIDT) was Rs.154.43 crore in Q3FY13 as against Rs.128.75 crore in Q3FY12. AHELs EPS for FY13 and FY14 is estimated at Rs.22.28 and Rs.26.66 respectively. Net Sales and PAT are expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 27% over 2011 to 2014E respectively. At the current market price of Rs.830, the AHEL stocks P/E ratio is at 37.84x FY13E and 31.62x FY14E respectively. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 4.47x and 4x respectively for FY13E and FY14E. We recommend Apollo Hospital with a buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs.945. Technical Check: AHEL has given a range breakout, which looks good for the short-term and medium-term as well. The stock's previous high was at Rs.900.The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows on daily charts and has made a trading range formation like rectangle on short-term chart Rs.770-830 and on the long-term chart it can move up with a strong uptrend and a target of Rs.900 looks possible since it is trading above the major moving averages of 200 DMA & 100 DMA, its 6-12 month target is Rs.950.

*******

NavaBharat Ventures (CMP: Rs.187, TGT: Rs.265)

We initiate coverage on Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd. (NBVL) with a BUY recommendation and a price target of Rs.265 based on SOTP valuation. NBVL is a diversified company with business interests in Power, Ferro Alloys, Sugar and Mining. We believe that its shift towards the merchant power business from ferro alloys will provide stability to its revenues. Its overseas foray through coal mining and power generation projects in Zambia and coal mining in Indonesia will lead the next phase of growth. Ferro alloys will continue as an opportunity business with operating margins guiding the production numbers. Sugar segment along with its byproducts will perform well, as realizations improve after the significant fall in prices earlier this year. However, the improving power supply scenario in India will continue to exert pressure on its power segment margins. NBVL has reported a good set of numbers for Q3FY13 in line with estimates on the back of robust performance in the power segment aided by sharp improvement in realisations and growth in volumes. The cost of power generation was flat declining by 1.4% to Rs.3 per unit. While the topline grew just 13.8% to Rs.265.7 crore, profitability grew at a fast pace by 1.8x to Rs.57.2 crore aided by a sharp rise in merchant power rates in Andhra Pradesh. Firm merchant power rates and scheduled commissioning of its 214 MW power plants will enable NBVL to maintain its growth momentum. We retain a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.265 for the following reasons: Power Segment Its Q3FY13 PAT of Rs.67.7 crore was in line FOR WEEKLY GAINS with estimates of Rs.67.1 crore. The 28% Fast...FocusedFirst growth yoy was primarily led by better profitability in the Ferro alloys business Fresh One Buy - Weekly driven by higher realisations and lower costs. A product designed for short-term trading singling out one stock to focus upon. Higher e-auction of coal led to 24% yoy Fresh One Buy Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly) will identify the higher cost of power generation. stop loss, buy price range and profit booking levels along with its relative Operations resumed at its old 64MW strength, weekly reversal value and the start date of the trend or the Odisha plant to supply 20MW to GRIDCO turndown exit signals. at Rs.3 per unit. The new plant will supply This recommendation will be followed up in the subsequent week with 64/150MW capacity on demand by the revised levels for each trading parameter. Q4FY13. Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum available via Coal sale mined in Zambia started from email & courier. June 2012 at an average realisation of USD
For a sample copy visit www.moneytimes.in or call Money Times on 02222654805 or email at moneytimes@vsnl.com A Time Communications Publication
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57/MT. It has mined 30,000 MT high grade coal till date. Construction of its 300 MW power plant has started in May 2012 and will be completed in 3 years. We retain FY13E EPS of Rs.30.66 and FY14E EPS of Rs.35. However, the upside is limited until clarity on: (i) offtake/fuel arrangement of new power plants (64/150 MW), (ii) Zambian operations profitability and investment. Ferro alloys segment: Its Ferro Alloys business registered a subdued performance despite the Ferro Chrome conversion contract with Tata Steel. This was largely due to a decline in production of Silico Manganese owing to diversion of power for merchant sale in its AP unit. Ferro Alloys revenues declined 20.2% QoQ to Rs.115.1 crore, while PBIT improved by 9.3% to Rs.9.7 crore. The company sold 16190 MT of ferrochrome in Q3FY13 (+9.3% QoQ) under the conversion arrangement. Average conversion price was around Rs.27000/MT, which includes power supply from its Orissa plants at Rs.4.8/unit. The company is expected to earn a fixed margin of Rs.1000/tonne earned on its contract with Tata Steel. Earnings: NBVL witnessed sharp improvement of 45.2% YoY in EBITDA to Rs.83.9 crore in Q3FY13 on the back of improved profitability in the power segment. Decline in interest expenses and flat depreciation resulted in 75.9% higher net profit of Rs.57.2 crore. Outlook & Valuation: NBVL continues to remain an ideal play in the Indian Power Sector. Massive capacity addition, stable merchant power rates and sale of high grade coal from its Zambian mines will hold the company in good stead. At the CMP of Rs.186, the stock trades at a P/E of 5.3x, P/BV of 0.6x and EV/EBIDTA of 4.5x its FY14E earnings. Technical Check: NBVL is another range bound stock that looks good for the short-term and medium-term. The stocks previous high at Rs. 220. The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows on daily charts. It has made a trading range formation like a rectangle on short-term chart between Rs.175-200. On long-term charts, the stock has a strong uptrend for a target price of Rs.250 as it is trading above the major moving averages 200 DMA & 100 DMA.

FIFTY FIFTY
* Cummins India (Code: 500480) (Rs.493.75) has reported encouraging Q3FY13 numbers.

- By Kukku

Net profit rose 66.06% to Rs.234.08 crore from Rs.140.96 crore in Q3FY12 while sales rose 13.71% to Rs.1071.31 crore from Rs.942.17 crore in Q3FY12. Net Profit Before Tax (excluding exceptional items) up by 35% at Rs.262 crore. The company declared an interim dividend of 250%. Investors can continue to hold this stock or even accumulate on dips for decent long-term growth. The stock has already given decent returns from the levels we recommended.

* We recommended NESCO (Code: 505355) (Rs.766.30) about two years ago as a safe investment. The company has been
performing well and even outperformed the market. Its Q3FY13 results are decent as net profit rose 29.41% to Rs.25.30 crore from Rs.19.55 crore in Q3FY12 on 26.78% higher sales of Rs.43.51 crore as against Rs.34.32 crore in Q3FY12. Seeing to the overall slowdown in the business, the company has performed well. Investors can continue to hold the stock. A sustained closing above Rs.820 is likely to take the stock to higher levels. This is a good core portfolio stock.

* PI Industries (Code: 523642) (Rs.630) has done exceedingly well in Q3FY13 as net profit zoomed 109.44% to Rs.23.96
crore from Rs.11.44 crore in Q3FY12 whereas sales rose 48.39% to Rs.281.94 crore as against Rs.190 crore in Q3FY12. The company has plans to split the face value of its equity share from Rs.5 each to Re.1 each subject to the approval by shareholders. Investors can continue to hold this stock.

* First Leasing Companys (Code: 500145) (Rs.53.25) Q3FY13 profit is flat. With a share book value of around Rs.155, the
stock looks attractive at Rs.50/51 level for investment.

* There is sharp improvement in the Q3FY13 working of VST Tillers (Code: 531266) (Rs.367.30) compared to Q2. Its
Q3FY13 net profit went up by 9.21% to Rs.12.92 crore from Rs.11.83 crore in Q3FY12. Margins of the company have improved sharply compared to Q2. The stock is trading near its 52-week low where the downside is restricted. Investors with a long-term view can think of buying on SIP basis.

* There are signs of improvement in the working of Revathi Equipments (Code: 505368) (Rs.265) on a consolidated basis.
At the current level, it seems that the worst is over for the company.

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* As per January 2013 data given to the BSE, there is good improvement in cane crushing and sales at Eid Parry (Code:
500125) (Rs.155.55). Investors can continue to hold this stock as decontrol of sugar will be a positive for the company.

* We have been recommending Zenith Fibres (Code: 514266) (Rs.34.95) for buying from lower levels. The company has
done very well in Q3FY13 as net profit rose 62.34% to Rs.1.25 crore from Rs.0.77 crore in Q3FY12. Sales also rose 26.68% to Rs.15.48 crore in Q3FY13 as against Rs.12.22 crore in Q3FY12. The company recently completed expansion and its capacity has doubled on an investment of just Rs.2 crore. Benefit of this expansion will come gradually over a period of time. Investors can accumulate this stock on dips for good long-term growth.

* As warned earlier, results of Vulcan Engineers (Code: 522080) (Rs.18.85) are below expectations. For 9MFY13, it posted
a loss of Rs.3.94 crore. The company is facing working capital constraints. On the other hand, it does not have orders due to stiff competition in the industry. Investors can look for better options.

* Hind Rectifier (Code: 504036) (Rs.69.30), stock has given decent long-term growth to investors as a buy call was
initiated around Rs.40 level last year. The company has reported decent results recently and there is promoter buying in the counter, which boosts the confidence of investors. Hold on to the stock.

* Ashiana Housing (Code: 523716) (Rs.239.05) , has remained very firm during the recent meltdown of midcaps.
Investors can continue to hold this stock because of its unique business model and big expansion plans. Stock is catching attention of fund managers now. Long-term investors are likely to earn decent returns.

* Deepak Nitrite Ltd. (Code: 506401) (Rs.274) , has remained very firm after encouraging Q3FY13 results. The stock is a
good core portfolio choice for investors and is likely to be an outperformer next year. Note: There has been a sharp fall in many mid/small cap stocks which has shaken the confidence of many investors. But our recommended stocks like Ashiana Housing, Berger Paints, Hind Rectifier, Cummins, Nesco, Deepak Nitrite have all remained very firm during this fall. Investors are advised to hold them for decent long-term growth. Investors need to be very selective in stock picking as the market is likely to remain liquidity driven. Although there is overall fear among investors the market is very likely to see new levels in the near future.

EXPERT EYE

- By Vihari

DCW Ltd.: Expansion to drive further growth

The share of DCW Ltd. (FV: Rs.2) (Code: 500117) (Rs.16.25) can be bought for decent appreciation in the long-term based on its improving fundamentals. DCW was incorporated in 1939 as Dhrangadhra Chemical Works by Late Shri. Sahu Shriyans Prasad Jain on takeover of a soda ash factory in Dhrangadhra (Gujarat). Expanding its business, DCW set-up a chloralkali plant at Sahupuram in Tamil Nadu. Currently, DCW manufactures caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, soda ash, poly vinyl chloride (PVC) etc. It also has a power generation plant. The capacity through diesel generator is 124 million KWH and from steam turbine generator is 304 million KWH equivalent to 40 MW. Its Dhrangadhra unit manufactures soda ash, sodium bicarbonate and ammonium bicarbonate, while the Sahupuram unit manufactures caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, PVC resin and others. As an established player in the chloralkali and petrochemicals industry, its offerings include caustic soda, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, trichloroethylene, ferric chloride, yellow iron oxide, sodium bicarbonate, ammonium bicarbonate and others. Its operations are under three divisions viz PVC, caustic soda and soda ash. DCW is one of the country's five producers of PVC resin and has maintained its market share of nearly 7%. The demand for PVC is growing at a CAGR of about 10% given the increased government spending on infrastructure, agriculture and water management. DCW continues to be a major player in caustic soda and soda ash in South India with a market share of about 15%. The demand for caustic soda is expected to grow steadily by 4% to 5% given increased demand by alumina manufacturers. The conversion of Mercury Cell to Membrane Cell technology not only results in substantial capacity addition but also lowers the consumption of power which has helped boost the bottom-line. In FY12, sales advanced 12% to Rs.1182 crore and net profit rose 6% to Rs.31 crore and the EPS was Rs.1.5. During Q3FY13, net profit catapulted 575% to Rs.28.2 crore on 17% higher sales of Rs.362 crore and the quarterly EPS was Rs.1.4. For 9MFY13, net profit zoomed 224% to Rs.88 crore on 23% higher sales of Rs.1054 crore and the nine monthly EPS works out to Rs.4.3.

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DCWs equity capital is Rs.40.6 crore and with reserves of Rs.376 crore, the book value of its share works out to Rs.20.5. The value of its gross block including capital-work-in-progress of Rs.214 crore is Rs.1346 crore and the debt:equity ratio is 1.1:1. The promoters hold 43.3% equity stake, foreign holding is 16.3%, Institutional holding is 4.1% and with PCBs holding 6% leaves 30.2% with the investing public. In FY12, exports jumped 60% to Rs.256 crore from Rs.153 crore in FY11 on account of better realisation on Beneficated Ilmenite coupled with higher tonnage. The work on the Synthetic Iron Oxide Pigment (SIOP) plant at its Sahupuram facility, utilising waste effluent stream, which is rich in iron (Iron Chloride liquor), is under progress and in an advanced stage of implementation. DCW has appointed UDHE India, a well-known engineering company, to provide the engineering services for this plant. The mechanical completion is expected to be completed by Q2FY14. Once established this plant will enable DCW to convert its waste into a commercially viable product and Calcium Chloride will be produced from the effluent generated from the new SIOP Plant. Both the SIOP and Calcium Chloride facility have been granted 100% EOU status by the Government of India. This facility employs DCW's in-house developed technology. DCW has an agreement with Rockwood Italia SpA Socio Unico, Divisione Silo, Italy (Group Company of Rockwood Pigments of USA) for the manufacture of both Yellow and Red Iron Oxide pigments. The SIOP capacity will be around 32,000 TPA and the waste steam coming out from the SIOP will be used to manufacture 50000 TPA of Calcium Chloride and pure water. DCW has signed a Technology Licence Agreement with Arkema of France for putting up a Chlorinated Poly Vinyl Chloride (C-PVC) Plant at its Sahupuram facility in Tamil Nadu and has appointed UHDE India to prepare the detailed engineering of the project. This project will take 12-15 months to achieve commercial production from the Zero Date. This project will help DCW manufacture value added products from its PVC and Chlorine and will enhance the captive consumption of Chlorine reducing its dependence on the sale of Chlorine. DCW manufactures 7200 TPA of Trichloroethylene, which it now proposes to expand by 5000 TPA to help replace imports. This will also help increase its captive consumption of Chlorine. DCW has also signed an off-take agreement with Rockwood Italia for 50% of the Synthetic Iron Oxide Pigments produced. The balance 50% may be sold either to Rockwood Italia or other parties. A Balancing Equipment programme is under progress, which will raise the PVC production from 90,000 TPA to 140,000 TPA and is expected to be completed by Q1FY14. All these expansions will enhance DWCs revenue and FREE TRIAL FOR profitability going forward. For FY13, DCW is expected to post an EPS of Rs.6, which would further Live market intra-day calls rise to Rs.8 in FY14. At the current market price of A running commentary of intra-day trading Rs.16, its share is trading at a P/E multiple of just 2.7 recommendations on your mobile or Yahoo Messenger on FY13 estimated earnings and 2 times the FY14 every trading day of the month for Rs.4,000 per month. projected earnings. A conservative P/E ratio of 5 will For free trial call Money Times to register. take the DCW share price to Rs.30 in the medium-term Provide your mobile number or Yahoo Id. and Rs.40 thereafter. The 52-week high/low of the Tel: 022-22616970 or Email: moneytimes@vsnl.com share has been Rs.27/9.

TECHNO FUNDA

- By Nayan Patel

Camphor and Allied Products Ltd.

BSE Code: 500078 Last Close: Rs.154.75
In Money Times issue dated 10 December 2012, we had recommended Camphor & Allied Products at Rs.153. Within six weeks, it zoomed to Rs.199.80 level and recorded 30.50% appreciation. We again recommend this stock for investment at the current level. Camphor & Allied Products Ltd. (CAPL) engages in the manufacture and sale of Terpene chemicals and other speciality aroma chemicals. It offers various fragrance chemicals including amberone, astromeran, astrone, astrolide, capinone, dihydroterpineol, dihydroterpinyl acetate, fenchone, isoborneol, isobornyl acetate, ketone 101, terpineol, terpinyl acetate, citwanene, isolongifolene and longifolene; pharmaceutical products comprising camphor and terpineol BP. Its industrial chemical product line consists of alpha pinene epoxide, alpha campholenic aldehyde, camphene, camphor, camphor oil, capolene, capolyte CP resin, distilled turpentine, dipentene, para cymene, para menthane hydroperoxide, pinene hydroperoxide, pine tars, pine oils, and sodium acetate trihydrate. Its products find application in flavours and

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fragrances, pharmaceuticals, soaps and cosmetics, rubber and tyre, and in paints and varnishes and exports its products to Europe and USA. The company is based in Mumbai and is a subsidiary of Oriental Aromatics Ltd. CAPL has an equity base of Rs.5.13 crore that is supported by reserves of around Rs.86 crore (after September 2012), which is 16.76 times its equity and has a share book value of Rs.162. The promoters hold 57.66% while the investing public holds 42.28% stake in the company. For Q3FY13, CAPLs net profit catapulted to Rs.4.51 crore against a loss of Rs.1.81 crore in Q3FY12 while the turnover rose about 20% at Rs.54.14 crore from Rs.44.89 crore in Q3FY12. For 9MFY13, net profit skyrocketed to Rs.22.82 crore from a loss of Rs.2.80 crore in 9MFY12 while the total turnover rose just 12% to Rs.160.86 crore from Rs.143.85 crore in 9MFY12. It reported a Q3FY13 EPS of Rs.8.78 and a nine monthly EPS of Rs.44.46. Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.) Market Whispers: The companys expansion is getting completed. (Rs. in cr.) Hence the next quarter of Q4FY13 results may be even better. There 2008-09 134.93 3.70 7.20 are reports that P&G (Proctor & Gamble) will either take a stake in 2009-10 166.65 10.24 19.95 CAPL or sign an agreement to buy out its products from the new unit. 2010-11 217.74 7.65 14.90 The company may record a net profit around Rs.27 crore with an EPS 2011-12 202.55 2.12 4.13 of Rs.52.63 for FY13. At its current market price of Rs.153, the CAPL 2012-13 (E) 215 27 52.63 share price discounts less than 3 times its FY13 (E) EPS of Rs.52.63. The stock thus appears undervalued and is likely to attract value buying at this level. Technically, the stock has made a strong bottom or base around Rs.150 level and is making higher tops with higher bottoms formation on the chart, which is a positive sign. Also, the stock is trading above its 200 days EMA, which is also an encouraging sign. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.135 on a closing basis. On the upper side, the stock will zoom to Rs.185-190 level in the short term and has the potential to cross Rs.230-250 level in 9-12 months! Its all-time high is Rs.303.

NHC Foods net up by 192%

MONEY FOLIO

NHC Foods Ltd., an ISO 22000-20005 & ISO 9001:2008 certified government recognized Star Export House engaged in the manufacture & export of a wide range of spices, oilseeds and other food products to numerous countries across the globe has shown impressive result for the quarter ended 31 December 2012. Total turnover rose to Rs.31.51 crore from Rs.25.27 crore in the previous corresponding quarter. Net profit for the quarter zoomed 192% to Rs.40.08 lakh from Rs.13.76 lakh in the previous corresponding year. For the nine month period ended 31 December 2012 (9MFY13) total turnover rose to Rs.101.88 crore, from Rs.67.72 lakh in 9MFY12. Net profit shot up 58.5% to Rs.140.29 lakh in 9MFY13 compared to Rs.88.51 lakh in 9MFY12.

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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.

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