Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
December 2008
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MARKET OVERVIEW
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
• R
eal estate industry is currently estimated to be
US$ 48 billion, with a CAGR of 30 per cent
• T
otal economic value estimated to be
US$ 40-45 billion accounting for four to
five per cent of the GDP
• G
rowth driven primarily by IT/ITeS, growing
presence of foreign businesses in India, the
globalization of Indian corporates and, the rapidly
increasing consumer class providing a huge
market potential
• T
he real etate sector is in an early growth stage,
can be segmented into residential, commercial,
retail and hospitality asset classes
• D
emand-supply gap across all segments for
quality real estate
Source: Industry Sources, E&Y Analysis
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Growth Drivers
• G
rowth in IT/ITES sector at 30 per cent annually
(source: NASSCOM)
• Significant growth in FDI
Market Structure
• D
ominated by a few large national developers
with pan-India presence
• R
egional players are expanding to achieve a
Pan-India presence
• S hift in the type of operations from Sale Model
to lease & maintain model
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Outlook
19%
• C
ommercial market expected to grow at CAGR 12%
of 20 per cent to 22 per cent over the next five years
9%
12%
• IT/ITeS sector expected to require in excess
of 250 million sq. ft of commercial office space
by 2012-13 n Bangalore n NCR n Mumbai
n Chennai n Kolkata n Hyderabad
n Pune n Tier III Cities
Source: E&Y estimates for top seven cities
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Residential space
Rising Urbanisation in India
Growth Drivers
Cities
• R
apid urbanisation: Urban population expected
1971
to touch 590 million by 2030.
• D
ecreasing household size: Average increase in 1981
• N
umber of rich household growing at CAGR of 2001
21 per cent.
• Increasing working age population (almost 64 per cent 2006
• R
egional players are expanding to achieve a
Pan-India presence
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Residential space
• B
road categories include Low cost/Mid market/
2002
Premium housing
2003
• Luxury segment growing annually at 25-30 per cent
2004
Outlook 2005
• C
urrent shortage close to 25 million units, 2006
• M
ortage finance will be increasing penetration 2010 (E)
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
US$ million
n Commercial Banks n HFCs n Coop Institutions
Source: Report of the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12),Working Group on Urban Housing
Retail space
• R
ising consumerism with doubling of disposable FY2004 $210 billion
income FY2005 $2224 billion
n Organized n Unorganizer
• Dominated by unorganised retail
• L arge corporate houses entering the organized Source: Edeliwiss, E&Y Research
retail sector
• International retail brands are tying up with
Indian partners
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Retail space
• O
ranised retail expected to grow at around
21%
30 per cent
• S hare of organised retail, by sales expected to
reach 10 per cent by 2010 n NCR n Mumbai n Bangalore n Kolkata
n Pune n Chennai n Hyderabad
• B
y 2012, 323 million Sq.ft. of new retail space will
Source: E&Y estimates for top seven cities, KSA Technopak
be required.
Hospitality space
• N
umber of malls in India is expected to increase from
105 in 2006 to 412 in 2010
Growth Drivers
• M
ore than 4.4 million international visitors
and 430 million domestic tourist visits in 2006
• Low cost airlines
• India recquiring recognition as a medical tourism
destination
• International events such as Commonwealth
Games
• Imergence of India as a MICE destination
Market Structure
• E ntry of several corporate houses such
as Reliance
• E xisting hotel operators are scaling up
their opetations
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Hospitality space
• Developers
are tying up with major international
chains
• D
evelopers have set up RE funds to finance their
Ventures
Segmentation
• C
lassification on the basis of Star Rating of 1 star
to 5 star deluxe
• N
umber of approved hotel rooms: 1,10,000 (including
approved projects), 30 per cent of this is in the five-
star segment
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Hospitality space
Outlook
• Indian tourism industry to grow by eight per cent per
annum over the next 10 years.
• Tremendous potential for budget hotels
• S ervice apartments, hospitals, wellness spas gaining
popularity.
• International hotel chains have big expansion plans
for India
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MA R K E T OV E RV I E W
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
• U
nder the new SEZ Policy, formal approvals Industry-wise classification of formally approved SEZs
have been granted to 462 SEZ proposals
• 2 22 have already been notified as SEZs, as on 11%
30th August 2007 4%
• F iscal benefits to IT Parks expected to come to 5%
an end in 2009; SEZs likely to be preferred for 2%
IT/ITeS commercial office space development 5%
69%
• P
olicy allows usage of as high as 50 per cent of area as 4%
non-processing zone, offering immense potential
for residential & other support infrastructure.
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POLICY
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
of FY2008.
2006-07E
• M
ajority of the direct investment is from West Asia
with overall commitment of US$ 9.7 billion from
Dubai-based developers.
• F urther, investors from US and Europe have shown
keen interest with the launch of several real estate
funds
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
• M
ajority of the direct investment is from West 2% 4%
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Regulatory interventions
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Regulatory interventions
Government incentives:
• S EZ Act, 2006 provides major Tax benefits,
Tax relief and Single window clearance and
approval
Urban Infrastructure Development:
• Focus on urban infrastructure
• Urban Reform schemes
* JNNURM
* City Challenge Fund
* Mega Cities Fund
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Budget analysis
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Budget analysis
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Budget analysis
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Business Models
• L
arge Scale Direct Entry: Independent approach
for undertaking real estate projects
• E
stablishment of Umbrella Joint Venture:
Foreign developer/investor enters into a joint venture
with a local partner to carry out projects
• M
ultiple Joint Ventures: Joint ventures with
different local partners on project-to-project basis
• I nvestment through creation of Capital Fund :
Facilitating the local developers through funding
their ventures
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Joint Venture
• Long term partnerships or project-specific Wholly Owned
Subsidiary
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PO L I C Y
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KEY TRENDS & DRIVERS
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
1) Accelerated yet stable reforms process India’s GDP over next two decades
• R
eforms momentum continued despite changing 8%
6%
leadership especially in areas of FDI & infrastructure 8-9 2014 1150
8%
2) Robust economic fundamentals 4-6 2024
6%
2100
• Fourth largest economy in the world in terms of PPP 0 1000 2000 3000
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Economic Growth -B road based GDP growth rate of 8-9 % per annum forecast
- Demand driven by the growth in services sector
- Growth expected to fuel demand across all the asset classes
Inflation -H as significant role in supply-demand of real estate
- Continues to remain a major concern
- Inflation is at its lowest since last year
Money Supply -G rowth is higher than RBI estimates
- Liquidity is key to inflation and over-heating
- Restricted availability to reduce options for builders/developers
Interest Rates -H igher rates lead to higher cost of borrowing
- Developers seeking other options, consumers are re-evaluating options
- Investors are revaluing returns from the sector
Credit Take-off - E asy availability of capital has led to growth in valuations
- Concern over exposure of Banks towards the sector
- Restrictions have increased the cost leading to alternate sources like PE/VC
Government Policies - Liberalization of FDI has led to an interest from new players
- Valuation standards and greater transparency
- Service tax on commercial rental to affect retail space
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Growth Rate • High growth of around 30% in last five years • E xpected to maintain the same growth in the medium term
(five to seven years)
Structure • Highly unorganized sector • Phase of consolidation expected in five to seven years
• Entry of numerous new players • Entry of large number of international players
• Preference towards strategic development alliances
Market Concentration • H
ighly concentrated within top six to eight cities in the • G rowth to be driven primarily by Tier-II and Tier-III cities in
country the near future, across segments
• High concentration leading to significant property price • Emergence of at least 10 to 15 new cities as growth centers
rise in such cities • Increased development of planned cities
Competition • H
igh competition with four to six key national players and • Shift in competition towards product focus/ differentiation
numerous regional players
Extent of Regulations • M oderate-No functional regulatory body • S tringent regulations expected to be introduced inline with
• Region/Location specific building laws international norms
• 100% FDI is allowed under the automatic route • Reforms in local development guidelines
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KE Y T R E N D S & D R I V E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Financing • 3 0 to 40 per cent annual increase in the home loan • Larger mortgage penetration
disbursements loan disbursals from Indian housing finance • Introduction of globally accepted instruments/modes such
companies as REITs
• Loan tenures have increased: 150 months (2001) to 173
months (2006) due to declining age of borrowers
Branding Penetration • Low-Commoditized market in most regions • S trong focus on brand development
• Brand-consciousness growing in Tier-I cities • Developers to have multiple brands focused on specific
product segments
Product Focus • Market
driven product supply • E nhanced focus on need driven product supply
• Developers undertaking activities across asset classes • Emergence of firms with niche asset class focus
with not much differentiation between product classes
• More focus to cater to the premium end consumer
Ownership • Developers
prefer to exit through sale to end consumer • Developers would start holding properties on a long-term
• Only few large developers prefer to hold properties. Most lease basis
developers prefer to sell
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KEY PLAYERS
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
ASCENDAS, Singapore
• Present in India since 1997
• E stablished a wholly owned subsidiary, Ascendas
India Private Limited
• O
perating 5 IT Parks across Banglore, Hydrabad
and Chennai having BUA of 4.4 million
• P
lan to develop two new IT Parks in Pune and
Nagpur at a cost of US$ 375 million
• A
scendas Advantage India Development Fund for
US$ 325 million launched in 2007
• A
scendas India IT Fund for US$ 520 million launched
in 2005
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
EMAAR, Dubai
• Present in India since 2005
• D
eveloping integrated township at Mohali over
3000 acres
• P
lans to develop integrated townships, commercial
offices, IT Parks, SEZs and Hotels
• P
lanning to venture into healthcare and education
sector
• Joint Venture with MGF Development Limited, India
• E maarMGF has JV with Accor Hotels (France)
& Premier Travel Inn (UK)
• C
apital outlay of US$ 4 Billion for group
projects in real estate in India
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Unitech
• O
perating various asset classes in residential,
commercial and retail segment
• D
eveloped more than seven million sq.ft. of built up
area (BUA)
• S pecialises in planning residential, commercial,
SEZ development, retail and hospitality, integrated
townships
• 430 million sq.tf. of BUA under planned projects
• M
ajor presence in National Capital Region and other
areas such as Kolkata, Chennai and Hyderabad
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
DLF
• Largest real estate developer in India
• D
eveloped Asia’s largest private township DLF
City at Gurgaon, Haryana spread over 3000 acres
• P
resent across all the asset classes : Residential,
Commercial and Retail.
• Developed more than 220 million sq.ft. of BUA
• S pecialises in planning Hotels, Infrastructure and
SEZs 574 million sq. ft. of BUA under planned Projects
• P
an-India footprint, major presence in Gurgaon
& Kolkata
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Ansal Properties
• O
perates primarily in Residential & Commercial
asset classes
• Developed over 2850 acres in Gurgaon and Delhi
• D
eveloping integrated townships, malls, hotels IT
parks and SEZs
• Plan to construct 157.6 million sq.ft. of BUA
• P
an-India footprint with major presence in 16
North-Indian cities acress four states
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
K Raheja Corp
• P
resent in Commercial, Retail & Residential
asset classes
• Developed over five million sq. ft. of BUA
• D
eveloping 15 self-contained townships and
10 hotels
• Planning to construct 13.2 million sq. ft. of BUA
• M
ajor presence in Mumbai with operations in
Banglore, Ahamedabad, Goa, Pune and Hyderabad.
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Sobha Developers
• A
sset classes include Residential, Commercial,
Development of plots and Contractual projects
• Developed over 4.5 million sq. ft. of BUA
• Planning residential and retail projects
• 1 01 million sq. ft. of BUA is planned under various
projects
• M
ajor concentration in Banglore with presence in
other areas such as Cochin, Chennai and Pune.
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KE Y P L AY E R S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Parsvnath Developers
• P
resence in Residential, Retail Commercial
asset classes
• Developed over 3.8 million sq. ft. of BUA
• P
lans to develop IT Parks and 12 SEZs across
the country
• Plannin to construct around 46.5 million sq. ft. of BUA
• Major Presence in National Capital Region
• Increasing Pan-India Footprint, active in over
46 cities across 17 states
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KEY OPPORTUNITIES
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Healthcare Infrastructure
• H
ealthcare industry expected to grow at a
CAGR of 11.6 per cent over the next five years
• Healthcare BPO is growing at steady pace
• M
edical infrastructure expanding with one million
beds to be added by 2012
• M
edical tourism growth driven by low cost
and high quality services
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Education Infrastructure
• H
uge market with untapped potential and low
competition
• Lack of enough world class educational institutions
• D
riven by Knowledge based industries, large
demand for qualified Engineers
• R
esearch Laboratories adding value to Global
outsourcing trend
• G
rowing interest of leading global educational
institutions in setting up institutions in India
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Appraisal of opportunities
• A
s India vaults from being an also-ran to a leader in
the global economy, Indian real estate industry is
poised to emerge as one of the most preferred
investment destinations for global realty and
investment firms.
• T
here are a few anticipated initiatives/actions, which
are likely to be instrumental in ensuring sustained
growth of the Indian realty sector in the medium
to long term.
• T
hese engines for growth will act as a catalyst
for the real estate development across country.
• S ome of these opportunities which is expected
to further drive the demand for the real estate
development are:
* Logistics and Warehousing Infrastructure
* Healthcare Infrastructure
* Low-cost Housing
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Key Challenges
• Relatively small manufacturing base – but growing
• M
indset and culture of outsourcing logistics
activities to capable third party operators is just
emerging
• In fact, there is no general awareness of standard
logistics practices and due to the protected
environment for Indian industries, until recently
there was no incentive for companies to improve
their operational performance
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Opportunities
• Booming trade – Domestic & International
• A
s more MNCs establish their operations in
India, the need for good quality warehousing,
distribution and sourcing centres is on the rise
• V
AT, if uniformly implemented, is expected to
change warehousing and distribution fundamentals
and is expected to consolidate warehousing needs
• A
griculture Logistics – proper cold chain
management and opportunity
• L ogistics for large infrastructure and
Engineering Projects
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Healthcare infrastructure
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Healthcare infrastructure
Key Challenges
• Rapidly changing market
• Rising cost
• L ow accessibility and unavailability of facilities
and services
• T
he sector would increasingly witness foreign
equity participation, Joint Ventures, Alliances and
Tie-ups among healthcare institutions resulting in
transfer of technology, skills and practices
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Healthcare infrastructure
Opportunities
• Healthcare BPO
• Medical Infrastructure
• Medical Value Travel
• Medical Devices
• Pathology Services
• Telemedicine
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Low–cost housing
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Low–cost housing
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Low–cost housing
• T
he Township will also have an array of facilities
including two primary schools, health centre,
shopping arcade, provision stores, community
centres, children’s play area, amphitheatre,
entertainment and two clubs.
• T
he Township will be located in Action Area-III
in the New Town of Kolkata.
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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KE Y O P P ORT U N I T I E S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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RISKS AND CONCERNS
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Overheating market
• O
n the macroeconomic front, inflation has risen
sharply from 3.9 per cent in April 2006 to 6 per cent
in April 2007
• O
n the real estate front, persistent demand-supply
gap has led to spiraling property prices
• C
apital values risen by more than 100 per cent in all
key markets
• O
versupply expected in few product classes
– IT SEZs, Luxury end residential
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Regulatory issues
• U
LCRA is yet to be repealed in some key states,
such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and West Bengal
• S tamp duty rates are still high in many states
resulting in high transaction costs
• Tenancy laws are not in favor of owner
Unclear titles
• A
high percentage of land holdings do not have
clear titles
• L and is typically held by individuals/families,
which hinders easy transfer of title
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Time-consuming Approval
• Approvals required from multiple agencies,
• Time consuming and circuitous procedures
• L eads to project delays and affects marketability
of projects
High Dependence on NRIs
• Certain pockets are heavily dependent on NRI money
• L eads to speculation and an asset bubble kind
of situation
• P
rices become prohibitively expensive for
domestic consumers
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RI S K S A N D C O N C E R N S
REAL ESTATE • December 2008
Speculative Supply
• Certain pockets witnessing speculative supply
• S ome pockets are purely investor driven,
end-user and genuine consumers suffering
• O
versupply leading to downward pressure on
prices - “price correction”
Overindulgence
• O
verindulgence of Developers on asset
classes which are not demand driven
• O
verstretched commitments and hence
quality risks
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RE A L E S TAT E
December 2008
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