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What to expect
Overview of self-sufficiency policies Storage and food security: background and conceptual framework Options for expanding reserves Review of options Conclusion
Policy options
Flexible self-sufficiency for importing country: domestic production target domestic utilization; import the balance (as needed) Domestic production target:
Productivity-enhancement to target yield and yield and area, such that marginal cost approximates world price Check that domestic production corresponds to capita intake compliant with nutritional norms
Policy options
Example calculation: 60% of 2,000 kcal (daily intake) = 1,200 kcal Of which 80% from rice = 960 kcal Kcal/gram of rice = 3.5 ~ 100 kg/year Compare actual per capita intake: 127.4 kg in Indonesia, 123.3 kg in the Philippines, 141.2 kg in Vietnam
Mean
95th Percentile
AVERAGE 6% LOWER
AVERAGE 3% LOWER
Thailand Vietnam
Regional rice reserve promising; sizable (787,000 tons); but insufficient to meet very large production shocks Alternative: Increased domestic storage
Utilization indicators
Utilization ('000 tons) Growth (%) 3.9 2.5 1.7 4.6 1.6 0.8 4.3 31.9 -0.3 1.0 Stocks-to-use ratio (%) 2010 57.6 10.9 6.1 8.0 29.4 21.9 22.1 19.2 63.6 29.9 2011 47.2 17.0 4.1 14.2 30.9 20.3 27.6 18.2 65.5 22.3 Imports-to-use ratio (%) 2010 88.2 0.0 0.6 1.3 31.6 0.0 20.0 118.9 0.0 0.0 2011 92.4 0.0 4.1 3.2 41.1 0.0 5.7 128.7 0.0 0.0 Exports-to-output ratio (%) 2010 0.0 35.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 4.9 0.0 42.2 27.8 2011 0.0 35.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 45.6 27.0 2010 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 32 2,961 39,034 1,748 2,470 19,593 11,898 209 12,120 19,270 2011 34 3,036 39,682 1,828 2,511 19,753 12,414 275 12,084 19,468
Conceptual framework
Economic theory of storage: private sector has incentive to undertake storage Theory is empirically relevant Implies that private storage not sufficient:
Does not take into account risk aversion Does not take into account threshold effects (associated with food security)
Conclusion
Reliance on private storage and private stocks preferred Requisite market development takes time to develop even with government incentives In the interim: public stocks in private storage other PPP measures Toward sustainable and cost-effective schemes for maintaining adequate reserves
Roehl Briones
rbriones@mail.pids.gov.ph