WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.

COM

R E E K L Y E P O R T
Buy on fear, sell on greed. The trend is your friend.

01 JULY - 05 JULY 2013

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

MARKET EVENTS Rupee gains most in 9 months; reform move helps sentiment. Indian rupee to see worst quarter in 10 years, Asia FX lower in Q2. Rupee gains; around $300 million flows from Diageo seen.

MARKET OUTLOOK
Indian rupee gained 1.2% in the day, its most in nine months against the dollar on inflows, limited demand for dollars from oil companies and expectation that the US Federal Reserve may not be able to reverse quantitative easing programme anytime soon. The rupee touched an all-time low of 60.73 a dollar on Tuesday, having lost more than 10% since May this year, on fund outflows. Foreign investors have pulled out over $5 billion from Indian debt this month. This fund ouflow was triggered by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's comments that the Fed may go slow on bond purchases or its quantitative easing programme, which has so far fuelled the rush of capital flows into riskier assets from emerging countries.

CURRENCIES
USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR

PREVIOUS RATE
59.3075 78.3000 91.6025 60.6525

CURRENT RATE
59.7450 78.0375 91.0225 60.2900

KEY RATES As on 28/06/2013

% CHANGE
0.73 -0.33 -0.63 -0.59
REFERENCE RATE (USD) REPO RATE REVERSE REPO CRR INFLATION

59.6995 7.25% 6.25% 4% 4.7%

USDINR

USDINR made all time high of 61.0000 and soon rebounded towards lower side. On weekly charts, a reversal pattern is seen according to which some correction can occur below 59.4000 towards the near term support of 58.3000. While considering global concerns it may gain strength above the immediate resistance of 60.5000.

EURINR

EURINR was unable to cross the previous high of 79.6225 but closed on lower levels. Certain correction may happen if it holds below 77.5000 where next major support is seen around 76.2000. If it sustains above the resistance of 78.8000 then it may cross its previous highs.

PIVOT TABLE CURRENCIES

USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR

S1
59.1000 77.4000 89.8000 59.7000

S2
58.3000 76.6000 89.0000 59.0000

S3
57.5000 75.7000 88.2000 58.2000

R1
60.5000 78.8000 91.8000 60.9000

R2
61.1500 79.6200 92.5000 61.6000

R3
61.5000 80.2000 93.9000 62.4000

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
Dollar Gains as Fed Official Discusses Stimulus-Taper Decision. IMF Says Reserve Holdings of Aussie, Canada at $194 Billion. Ruble Heads for Worst Quarter in Year on Commodities Outlook.

DATE

TIME 7:30 PM 06:00 PM 06:00 PM 06:00 PM

COUNTRY

EVENT ISM Manufacturing PMI Trade Balance Unemployment Claims Unemployment Rate

BLOOMBERG ESTIMATE 50.6

PREVIOUS LEVEL 49.0

01-July-2013

US

03-July-2013

US

-40.3B

-40.3B

03-July-2013

US

345k

346k

05-July-2013

US

7.5%

7.6%

DISCLAIMER

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM