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FACT SHEET WORLDRISKREPORT 2012

WhatistheWorldRiskReport 2012? TheWorldRiskReport (WRR)consistsofanindex,aprioritytopicand casestudies.Theindexdescribesthedisasterriskforvariouscountries andregions.Themainfocusofthereportisonthethreatfromor exposuretonaturalhazardsandtheriseinsealevelcausedbyclimate change,aswellassocialvulnerabilityintheformofthepopulation's susceptibilityandtheircapacityforcopingandadaptation.An additionalprioritytopicinthe2012reportis"environmental degradationanddisasters". WhatisparticularabouttheWorldRiskReport?
TheWorldRiskReport wasdevelopedinclosecooperationbetween

scientistsandpractitioners.Combinedexpertise,i.e.scientificstructure andprocedureandpracticalcompetencedistinguishthisreportfrom comparableacademicstudies. Theschemeoffourcomponentswasfirstdrawnupworldwideinthe WorldRiskReport 2011.Theglobaloverviewwhichthisgivesisnovelin nature.Inaddition,thecombinationofthesocialandeconomic dimensionsofriskwiththetraditionalriskanalysisforseriousnatural disastersleadstoanewapproachforriskassessmentwhichpermits futureorientedconclusionsforpolicyandpractice.Outof28indicators oftheWorldRiskIndex,26indicatorswereupdatedforthe WorldRiskReport 2012. Thesignificantdifferencesbetweenexposuretonaturalhazardson theonehandandsocialvulnerabilityontheotherhandpointtothe urgentneedtocreatecloserlinksbetweendisasterrelief,disasterrisk reductionanddevelopmentstrategiesandpolicies.Earthquakescannot beprevented,butvulnerabilitytothemcanbereduced.
Previousstudiesfocusedprimarilyontheanalysisofdifferentnatural hazardsandaimedatmappingriskandvulnerabilityonagloballevel. Theywereoftenfocusedprimarilyonissuessuchasthenumberof fatalitiescausedbythevariousdisastersandthesizeoftheresulting economiclosses.Incontrast,besideshazardanalysis,the WorldRiskIndex givespriorityprimarilytothevulnerabilityofthe population,i.e.theirsusceptibility,theircopingcapacityandtheirability toadapttofuturenaturalhazardeventsandtheconsequencesof climatechange.TheWorldRiskIndex isthusbasedonconceptual frameworksthataimtowardsanintegrativeandholisticrisk assessment.Itunderscoresthesocialconstructionofrisk. Thedistinctionbetweencopingandadaptationcapacityalso

Contacts: UNUNIVERSITY InstituteforEnvironmentand HumanSecurity HermannEhlersStr.10 53113Bonn,Germany Tel.+492288150285 fiser@vie.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu

AllianceDevelopmentWorks Chausseestrae128/129 10115Berlin Phone +493027877390 presse@entwicklunghilft.de www.entwicklunghilft.de

TheNatureConservancy LongMarineLaboratory 100Shaffer Road SantaCruz, Cruz CA95060 Tel.+1 8314777649 cshepard@TNC.org www.nature.org

demonstratesthatthecapacitytocopewithanactualhazardrequires differentresourcesandcharacteristicsthanlongtermadaptation.

HowistheWorldRiskIndex conceptualized? TheconceptoftheWorldRiskIndex (WRI)isbasedontheunderstandingofriskfrom research honnatural t lhazards h d and ddi disasters. t I Inthi thiscontext t trisk i ki isd defined fi dasani interaction t ti betweenanaturalhazardandthevulnerabilityofsocieties.Vulnerabilityincludessocial conditionsandprocessesthatarereflectedinsusceptibility,copingcapacityandadaptive capacity.Whileadaptationrefersprimarilytothesocietyslongtermstrategiesforchange, copingreferstotheimmediateresponsetoongoingnaturalhazardprocesses.Unlikesimilar studiesthatassumethatanaturalhazardorclimatechangeaffectawellorderedsociety, theWRItakes intoaccountthatnotonlythenaturalhazardbutalsothesocial,economic andenvironmentalfactorswhichcharacterizeasociety aswellasgovernanceaspects arecrucialindeterminingwhetheranaturalhazardornaturalevent(floods,earthquakes, storms)canturnintoadisaster. Theindexiscomposedofindicatorswhicharedividedintofourcomponentsandfurther subcategories: +Exposure:exposuretonaturalhazardssuchasearthquakes,hurricanes,floods,droughts andrisingsealevels +Susceptibilityinrelationtoinfrastructure,nutrition,housingsituationandeconomic conditions +Copingcapacity inrelationtogovernance,precautionsandearlywarningsystems, medicalservices,socialandmaterialprotection +Adaptationcapacityinrelationtofuturenaturaleventsandclimatechange. Theoverallindexiscalculatedbycombiningthefourcomponents,eachofwhichincludes severalsubcategories. categories Theindexvalueiscalculatedbycombiningtheexposuretonatural hazardswiththevulnerabilityofasociety,i.e.theirsusceptibilityandtheircapacitiesfor copingandadaptation.

AmoredetaileddiagramforcalculatingtheWorldRiskIndex isgivenonpages12/13ofthe WorldRiskReport 2012.>>www.worldRiskReport.en/download

WhatisnewabouttheWorldRiskIndex 2012? TheWorldRiskReport 2012containsnewdataonexposuretotheriseinsealevelbasedon moreprecise i population l ti data d t amongst tother th aspects. t For F example, l itshows h asignificant i ifi t increaseinthethreattoBangladeshwhichranked15inthe2011exposureindexandisnowin 10thplaceinthenewindex inotherwords,isunderamuchhigherexposurethanpreviously assessed. Inaddition,theindexhaschangedintheenvironmentalindicatorsection,duetochangesinthe underlyingdataandinputindicators.Thismeansthattheresultsofthe2011and2012indices arenotdirectlycomparable.Inanoverallcontext,theriskandvulnerabilitystructureswhich becameclearinthe2011reportcanbeconfirmed,forexampletheglobalriskhotspotsin Oceania,SoutheastAsia,inthesouthernSahelandinCentralAmerica.

Whatisthecurrentoverallviewoftheglobalsituation?

NewZealandvs.Haiti:acomparisonofdisasters Whiletheearthquakeon22March2011inChristchurchinNewZealandwithamoment magnitudeof6.3claimedthelivesof187victimsandcausedlossesamountingto16billionUS dollars,anearthquakeinHaitiatthebeginningof2010withastrengthof7ledto220,000 casualtiesandtolossesofaround8billionUSdollars.InHaitiitwasnotonlythenumberof peoplekilledwhichwashigher:althoughtheeconomiclossesinHaitiwereonlyhalfthosein NewZealandinabsoluteterms,theywerefarmoredevastating.WhilstinNewZealand80per centofthelosseswereinsured,inHaitithelossexceededthecountry'sgrossnationalproduct andonly2.5percentofthetotallosswasinsured.Thedisasterriskofthetwocountriesis reflectedintheWorldRiskIndex withavalueof11.96percent,Haitifallsinthehighestriskclass ranking21outof173countries,whereasNewZealandoccupiesplace122at4.44percent.This diff difference is i d dueto t New N Zealand's Z l d' lower l vulnerability l bilit (vulnerability: ( l bilit 28.77 28 77percent; t for f Haiti: H iti 73.54percent)becausethefiguresforexposuretonaturalrisksarealmostthesameforboth countries(Haiti:16.26percent,rank40intheexposureindex;NewZealand:15.44percent, rank49intheexposureindex).

WhatisthesituationfortheEU27(plusNorway,IcelandandSwitzerland)?

WhyisaninstrumentsuchastheWorldRiskIndex needed? +Itiswidelyacceptedinthescientificcommunitythattheclimateischangingtoan unprecedentedunknowndegreeandthatthiswillhaveconsequencesforhumanitywhich cannotcurrentlybepredictedprecisely.Thisappliestoboththedevelopedcountriesandto p gandnewly yindustrializedones.According gtothemostrecentscientificfindings, g ,e.g. g developing thesealevelwillrisebetween90and160cmby2100.Thiswillcreateseriousproblemsfor countriessuchasBangladesh,theislandstatesinOceaniaandtheNetherlands(Arctic MonitoringandAssessmentProgramme inNorwayhttp://www.amap.no). +Itisobviousthatweneedtopreparenowforchangesintheenvironmentwhichcanbe expectedinthecomingyearsanddecades.Itisnotonlygradualenvironmentalchangeswhich playacrucialrole,butalsothechangeinwhatareknownasextremeeventsandinthe developmentof fsocialvulnerability.Politicaldecisionmakersanddevelopmentcooperation stakeholdersareinneedofinstrumentswhichindicatewhichregionsandcountriesshow particularlyhighrisksasfarastheeffectsoftheseextremeeventsareconcernedduetotheir exposureandvulnerability.However,informationonthethreatisinsufficientonitsown.What isofequalimportanceistohaveanoverallunderstandingofthesituationintermsofthe societysconstitutionanditscopingcapacityfordealingwitheventsofthiskind.Thisiswhere theWorldRiskIndex isofuse,inthatitpresentsthethreattothedifferentcountriesontheone handandthevulnerabilityoftheirsocietiesontheotherinaquick quick,clearanddeliberately strikingmannersothatimportantdifferencesandriskhotspotsbecomeapparent.

+Thankstoitsmethodologyandtheresultingdata,theWorldRiskReport highlightsaspectssuchasrisk reduction,protectionofhighlyvulnerablegroupsandriskmanagementandthusaimsatashiftfroma mostlyshorttermviewofdisasterstoadevelopmentapproach. +TheAllianceDevelopmentWorksrequiresacceptanceofthefollowupagreementfortheHyogo disasterpreventionprogramme andthatitsstrategiesforreducingdisasterrisksaremadeanintegral partofthenewpost2015developmentagendaandclimatetalks.Fourgeneralaimsinlinewiththefour componentsoftheWorldRiskIndex shouldapplytothisinternationalnegotiationprocess: 1.Toreducetheriskduetoextremenaturalevents: Inordertoremedythecausesoftheincreasingdisasterrisks,effectivemeasuresarerequiredtocontrol climatechangeandtocounterthedegradationofsoilsandvegetation. 2.Todecreasestructuralsusceptibility: Thisprimarilyrequiresanimprovementinthesocialandeconomiclivingconditionsofthevulnerable groupsinthepopulation population,includingthefightagainstpovertyandhungerandthereductioninincome inequalities. 3.Toincreasethecapacitytocopewithdisasters: Thisincludesimprovingpublicinstitutions,expandingsocialsecuritysystemsandthedevelopmentof disasterriskmanagementandearlywarningsystems. 4.Toimprovemeasurestoadapttodisasterrisks: Theseincludeinvestmentinmorerobustinfrastructuresandecosystemsandtheimprovementof educationandresearchplusequalparticipationinpoliticaldecisionmakingprocessesbythoseexposed todisasters.

Whichdatawereusedforcompilingtheresults? Th WorldRiskIndex The W ldRi kI d is i b based donf freely l accessible ibl d data t which hi hmeet tcertain t i standards t d d and dquality lit criteria. it i Therawdataofalltheselectedindicatorsweretakenfromvariousglobaldatabasesandconvertedinto dimensionlessvaluesbetween0and1(orbetween0and100percent)forsubsequentaggregation. Themostfrequentnaturalhazardsoccurringbetween1970and2005(74percentofallnaturalhazards) andcausingthehighestnumberofdeaths(88percent)wereselected. Considerationwasalsogiventotheissueofgloballyrisingsealevelsinordertotakeaccountofthe threattocoastalareasandthepeoplelivingthereinthecontextofclimatechange.Currently,about13 percentoftheworldspopulationlivesincoastalareasthatarelessthantenmetersabovesealevel. Otherdatasetsusedwerefromthefollowinginstitutions: +InternationalDisasterDatabase,Leuven/Belgium(frequencyofnaturalhazards,numberofdeaths) +UniversityofKansas,CenterforRemoteSensingofIceSheets +ColumbiaUniversity,CenterforInternationalEarthScienceInformationNetwork +GlobalRiskDataPlatformPREVIEW(earthquakes,hurricanes,floodsanddroughts).

WhatcantheWorldRiskIndex achieveandwhatareitslimitations? +The h advantage d of fanindex i d is i the h considerable id bl simplification i lifi i of fcomplex l facts f togive i anoverall llvalue l whichillustratestheexistingproblemataglance.Indicesarethereforeavaluabletoolforcommunication andpublicrelations.Inadditiontheycanhighlightproblemsprofilesandformpartofapreliminarybasis fordecisionmakingprocesses. +Nevertheless,theinformativevalueofindiceshassignificantlimitations.Indicatorsortheindices compiledfromthemaretheoreticalconceptsusingdummyvariablesforcertainphenomena.Theycan thereforeneverreflectrealityperfectly. perfectly +TheglobalWorldRiskIndex isdependentondataavailabilityanddataquality.Therewereadequate dataforcalculatinganindexvaluefor173outof193countries.

Whataretheresultsoftheprioritytopicofenvironmentaldegradationanddisasters"? Adegradedenvironmentmakesasignificantcontributiontoincreasingthedisasterrisk.Theroleof ecosystemsandtheconnectionbetweenthedegradationoftheenvironmentandtheincreasein disastersassociatedwiththiswereclearlydemonstratedasearlyas2005intheMillenniumEcosystem Assessment(MA)usingtheexampleoffloodsandforestfires.ThisUNstudyalsoshowedthat60percent oftheecosystemsstudiedwerenotusedinasustainablewayorareinaconditionofongoing degradation(MA2005).TheUNGlobalAssessmentReportonDisasterRiskReduction2009identifies environmentaldegradationorthelossofecosystemsasafundamentaldrivingforcewhichincreasesthe riskofadisaster disaster. TheprioritychapteroftheWorldRiskReport 2012producedjointlywiththeinternationalenvironmental organizationTheNatureConservancy(TNC)focusesinparticularonecosystemssuchasreefsand mangroveswhichreducerisksfromcoastalhazards(coastalstormsandfloods). TwolargesizedworldmapsintheWorldRiskReport illustratetheroleofcoastalhabitatsandreefsinrisk yshowwherevery ylarge g numbersofp people p benefitandwherethebenefitsfromcoralreef reduction.They ecosystemsaremostatriskofenvironmentaldegradation. Themapsanddatausedareavailableatwww.network.coastalresilience.org

Howmanypeoplecanbenefitfromtheprotectionofcoastalhabitats? +Thesearethe200millionpeoplelivingatlowelevationsnearthecoastwhomayreceivesomedirect andindirectbenefitsfromcoralreefsalone.Forexample,reefscanabsorbmorethan85percentofthe waveenergywhichotherwisewouldimpactcoastsandprovidesbenefitsforfisheriesandlivelihoods. Fromtheperspectiveofriskreduction,manyofthemostatriskcountriesaretropicalandcoastal,which iswherereefsaremostabundant. +Stormsandothercoastalhazardsarecausingmorecostlydamagetopeopleandpropertythanever before Naturalhazardslikecoastalstorms before. storms,erosionandfloodscreatehugerisksforpeople people.Thoserisks increasewithclimatechangeandpoorcoastaldevelopmentdecisions.

IhaveheardthatCoralReefsaregoingextinctanyway whyshouldweinvestintheirconservation andrestoration? +Coralreefsareinbettershapecurrentlythanmostcoastalhabitats betterconditionthanoysterreefs, marshes,mangroves,andkelpforests. +In I manyregions, i coral lreefs f have h rebounded b d dafter ft impacts i t from f seawater t warming. i +Coralrestorationisentirelyfeasible. +Thereisevidencethatcoralscanevolvetobemoreheattolerant. +Someofthemostcriticalbenefitsfromcoralreefsaretheircoastalprotectionbenefits. Theseare benefitsthatwillnotdisappearquickly.Thestructure(limestoneskeleton)ofcoralreefsisnotlosteven whenthelivingskintemporarilydies(frombleaching,pollutionorstorms).Thisgivesextraordinary opportunityforrestoration.

Whatcouldbethesolution? +Naturalsystemsaresomeofthemostcosteffectivecoastaldefenses.Thisreportillustratesthe powerfulrolethatnaturecanplayinreducingrisks. +Coralreefs,oysterreefsandmangrovesofferflexible,costeffectiveandsustainablecoastaldefense breakingwaveenergy aswellasotherbenefitslikehealthyfisheriesandtourismthatseawallsand breakwaterswillneverprovide. +Forexample,TNCdoesoysterreefrestorationforcoastaldefenseat~$US1million/mileintheGulfof Mexico.Thisiscomparabletoorcheaperthangraybreakwatercosts andbeforeconsiderationof benefitstofisheries,andrecreation. +Thisreportspotlightsthoseareas liketheIndoWestPacificandtheCaribbean whereconserving andrestoringthesenaturalsystemscanbenefitthemostpeople.

Howshouldhabitatsbeprotectedorrestoredinordertoavoidtheriskswhichthreatenhuman beings? +Socialandenvironmentalrisksoftenoverlap.Thisknowledgeisessentialinordertobeproperly informedabouthowandwherethereisaneedforaction. +Wehavetomakesurewedontjustkeepbuildingartificialinfrastructureattheperilofournatural defenses.Natureisacriticalpartofthesolution. +Decisionsandinvestmentsforcoastalprotectionarebeingmadetoday. +Developmentandconservationdonothavetobeincompatible;theconceptofriskreductioncan bridgeenvironmental,social,andeconomicgoals. +Wehavetheopportunitytoensurethatgovernmentagenciesandengineersusegreen greeninfrastructure infrastructure solutionswheretheycanhavestrongandcosteffectiveimpact. +Governments,nationallyandmultinationally,mustidentifywherecoastalhabitatsareviablesolutions forriskreductionandplacepriorityontheirconservation&restoration. +Developmentorganizationsandenvironmentalgroupscanworktogethertomeetjointgoalsin sustainabledevelopment,riskreductionandconservation. +Environmentalagenciesandorganizationsshouldfocusmoreonvulnerablepeople;workinglessoften remotely&moreoftenwherehabitatslikereefsareclosetopeople.

Whereshouldhabitatsbeprotectedorrestoredinordertoavoidtheriskswhichthreatenhuman beings? g proportion p p ofpeople p p living ginlowlying y g +ThecountriesinOceaniainthewesternPacifichavethehighest areas(lessthantenmetersabovesealevel)andinthevicinityofreefs(within50kilometer):28percent ofthetotalpopulation.Fortunatelythesearetheareaswherethereefsareinthebestconditionfroma globalviewpoint:69percentofthereefshavealowriskofdamageandwhereweshouldfocusreef conservationefforts. + Inabsolutenumbers,SoutheastAsia withafocusinIndonesiahasthelargestnumberofpeoplein lowlyingatriskareasclosetoreefs:127million.Reefsareinverypoorconditionherewith37percent b i subject being bj toahigh hi horveryhigh hi hrisk. i k Here, H reef frecoveryand drestoration i would ldbenefit b fi manypeople. l +Conservationorganizationsneedtochangethefocusoftheireffortstoprotectreefsaredirectedto thoseclosetohumanbeingsandnotsimplytoremoteand"unspoilt"areas.

WhatisTheNatureConservancysrole: + The TheNatureConservancyisleadingthewayinshowingthatnaturecangetthejobdone done. + TheConservancyworksgloballyoncoralreefs.TNCandpartnersleadworkshopsforreefmanagers aroundtheworld.AttheheartofthesetrainingsisunderstandingReefResilienceandhelpingmanagers toimplementreefsolutions.FurtherTheConservancyisactivelyworkingoncoralreefrestorationinthe USandCaribbean. +EnvironmentalConservationandDisasterRiskReductionarestronglylinked;buttraditionallythese linkageshavebeendescribedqualitatively. +TheConservancyisleadingthewayinactuallyquantifying hownaturalinfrastructurecontributesto disasterriskreductionandmakingtheselinkagesinscienceandpolicy. +Mostimportantlyweareleadingthewayintestingthesesolutionsinthewater forexamplewith oysterreefsintheGulfofMexico. +TheConservancyispartneringwithAidGroupsandUnitedNationsUniversity(UNU)tounderstandand reducejointriskstopeopleandnature. +TheConservancyisworkingwithgovernmentsandinternationalinstitutionstoensurethatgreen infrastructuresolutionsareusedtoreducetheimpactsofclimatechange. +WeareworkingintheCaribbean Caribbean,theGulfofMexico Mexico,theSolomonIslandsandotherplacesaroundthe worldtodemonstratethatgreeninfrastructureworks. TheProjectPartners TheUnitedNationsUniversity(UNU)istheacademicarmoftheUnitedNations.Throughaproblemorientedand interdisciplinaryapproach,itaimsatappliedresearchandeducationonaglobalscale.UNUwasfoundedin1973as anautonomousorganoftheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly.TheUniversityhasitsheadquartersinTokyo,Japan, andoveradozeninstitutesandprogrammes worldwide.UNUEHSwasestablishedin2003inBonn,Germany. www.ehs.unu.edu;
TheAllianceDevelopmentWorks/BndnisEntwicklunghilft isanallianceofGermandevelopmentandrelief agenciesprovidinglongtermaidintheaftermathofmajordisastersandinemergencies.Theassociationbrings togetherlargerandsmaller,churchandnonchurchdevelopmentandreliefagenciesalongwiththeirrespective specialties.PartnersareBreadfortheWorld,medicointernational,MISEREOR,TerredesHommes Germanyand GermanAgroAction.www.entwicklunghilft.de/English.57.0.html TheNature Th N t Conservancy C is i al leading di conservation ti organization i ti working ki around dth theworld ldto t protect t tecologically l i ll importantlandsandwatersfornatureandpeople.TheConservancyanditsmorethan1millionmembershave protectednearly120millionacresworldwide .www.nature.org

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