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Background Briefing: Shangri-La Dialogue and Regional Security Issues Carlyle A. Thayer May 31, 2013

[client name deleted] Q1. Regarding the Shangri-La Dialogue, what do you opine on the presence of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dzung at the Dialogue this year? What do you expect from his keynote opening dinner address? ANSWER: The Prime Minister should spell out the major security challenges facing the region and provide suggestions on how these should be addressed. Prime Minister Dung will be the first Vietnamese leader to discuss foreign policy, national security and national defence issues in one speech. Prime Minister Dung will stress both bilateral and multilateral cooperation as necessary to support Vietnams objective of turning Southeast Asia into a region of peace, cooperation and development. Q2. At this Dialogue, we will have defense ministers from Europe's Three Powers, i.e. the UK, France and Germany, together with Secretary Chuck Hagel from the US among many other defense ministers from the region. Clearly, can we say that Asia has caught much more attention lately? ANSWER: The high-level European presence is unprecedented. This is because of the integrated nature of global security issues including North Koreas develop ment of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. Secretary Hagel will stress the importance of engaging China and the challenge of cyber threats to security. He will reaffirm the US commitment to Asia rebalancing despite budget cutbacks. Q3. What do you expect or observe the most from this Dialogue? ANSWER: The most important developments at the Shangri-La Dialogue take place on the margins between defence and security officials on a bilateral and multilateral basis. The formal program has been designed to focus on all of the major security issues including US policy and Chinas rise. Q4. In a recent interview with Radio France Internationale, Prof. Ngo Vinh Long from The University of Maine mentioned that China recently repeatedly called for going back to the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), which is clearly a step back given that it was signed more than 10 years ago. What's your assessment on this move by Beijing?

2 ANSWER: China has gone further than stressing the adherence to the DOC. At the 9th ASEAN-China Senior Officials Consultations held in April this year China indicated it was willing to join with ASEAN for preliminary talks on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). Meetings at working level and at ministerial level have been tentatively scheduled for later this year in advance of the ASEAN-China summit in October. Q5. There are talks that Beijing used the COC as a bait to pressure ASEAN to talk the Philippine out its lawsuit against China re the South China Sea. What's your observation on this one? ANSWER: China has tried several diplomatic approaches to put pressure on the Philippines to drop its claim to the Arbitral Tribunal. China clumsily proposed a meeting with all ASEAN members except the Philippines. This was rejected out of hand. China suggested to the Philippines that if it dropped its claim then there could be progress on their territorial disputes. China initially tried to put off talks on the COC in order to put pressure on other members of ASEAN to lobby the Philippines to drop its claim. Q6. China has been proactively approaching Indonesia as a way to pressure ASEAN given Jakarta's the leading voice in the group. Is this a new strategy? Will it work out to China's favor? ANSWER: When Chinas foreign minister visited Indonesia he secured Indonesias support for the creation of an Eminent Persons Group to contribute ideas to the COC. In return China agreed to hold a meeting with ASEAN later in the year on the COC. But this meeting will be held as part of discussion by a China-ASEAN working group on the DOC and not a separate meeting on the COC. Q6. In a recent writing you mentioned the increase in cost of Vietnams contract for the purchase of Russian Kilo-class submarines. You also mentioned about the high cost of maintenance and training that will involve. It seemed that the Vietnamese have been so enthusiastic about the subs and are totally ignorant of all other collateral cost that it might involve. What is your comment? ANSWER: My sources are private discussions with senior naval officers who have had experience with submarines. Vietnam appears to have badly underestimated the cost of absorbing the Kilo submarines into its force structure.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Shangri-La Dialogue and Regional Security Issues, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 31, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Shangri-La Dialogue: Vietnams Prime Minister Delivers Keynote Carlyle A. Thayer June 1, 2013

[client names deleted] What is your assessment of the opening dinner keynote speech delivered by Vietnams Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung? ASSESMENT: Generally the responses from the audience (delegates to the Shangri-La Dialogue) were uniformly positive. The Prime Minister Dung's delivery was excellent and the translation was clear and in flawless English. The Prime Minister surprised some by his forthright remarks at the beginning of his speech about the unilateral actions of some countries. Although he did not mention any country by name the delegates knew to which countries he was referring - China. General comments included agreement with the Prime Minister that strategic trust was necessary but that the PM mentioned strategic trust so many times and he did not define it or explain how it could be achieved Delegates said they wished that the Prime Minister was less general and more specific in his remarks about how to address current security challenges. Delegates noted and agreed with the Prime Ministers stress on ASEAN but observed that these positive references were obligatory for an ASEAN head of government. Some thought too much was made of ASEAN's role. There was agreement with the PM that multilateral organisations led by ASEAN had a key role to play in managing regional security challenges. Diplomatic officials were especially positive towards the PM's remarks on Vietnam's forthcoming contribution to peacekeeping. Diplomats at my table took handwritten notes of the PM's remarks as soon as they were made. They all praised the PM for this announcement. One delegate, however, said that it was strange to mention UN peacekeeping in a speech on the Asia-Pacific. Another delegate interjected that the importance was Vietnam's military were taking the first step to cooperate with other militaries. This experience could spill over and positively affect Vietnam's interaction with militaries in East Asia. Perhaps the most critical remarks were about how the PM handled the question and answer period. When the PM was asked about Vietnam's view of the Philippines' claim to the UN Arbitral Tribunal Prime Minister Dung made a vague reference to the statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) and that in the interest

2 of time there was no need to repeat it. Very few in the audience knew what was in that statement. The consensus was that the PM should have reiterated Vietnam's policy by quoting from the MOFA's very short statement which took note of the actions by the Philippines but stopped short of endorsing the Philippines' claim. When a female General from the People's Liberation Army asked about specific examples of interruption to freedom of navigation the PM did not give detailed examples but only spoke in general terms, stating that these incidents were widely known. In summary, the diplomats with experience with Vietnam stated they had heard it all before but they were complimentary about the general tone of the speech. The Prime Minister's speech was well received by delegates not familiar with Vietnam. The critical comments mentioned above should not be viewed as negative but the reaction of security specialists who always want more detail. The last session of the Shangri-La Dialogue on the final day saw the question of strategic trust resurface and several Defence Ministers referred to the Prime Minister's speech. It was noted that Indonesia's foreign minister Marty Natalegawa had used "strategic trust" in a speech in Washington, DC before the Shangri-La Dialogue. One delegate suggested that the Vietnamese Prime Minister picked up on this. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Shangri-La Dialogue: Vietnams Prime Minister Delivers Keynote, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, June1, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues to selected clients. It was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.