STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING SOCIETY NEW ZEALAND

CHRISTCHURCH SEISMIC DESIGN LOAD LEVELS INTERIM ADVICE

1 BACKGROUND

With the earthquakes that have occurred, there is a significant risk that the Canterbury area will be subject to a period of increased seismicity. This should be considered as a possible series of triggered events, rather than simply an aftershock sequence. There may be a period of up to 50 years or more, during which the seismic hazard due to smaller events near Christchurch is significantly increased. This effect is similar to what has been experienced in the Nelson/Buller area, commencing with the 1929 Murchison earthquake. There are a number of minor faults or fault systems that may be suffering increased stress from the recent earthquakes, some of which are already showing signs of increased activity. A likely scenario from one of these faults is another earthquake in the Magnitude 6-6.5 range, possibly again close to the CBD. This has the potential for similar actions to the Lyttelton earthquake, that is, a short duration event, with high ground accelerations. The assessed risk of another earthquake near Christchurch aggregates to approximately 6% on an annual basis. Prior to the earthquakes, this probability might have been assessed as less than 1/100th of this value. Consequently, the Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) for Christchurch and its surrounds needs to be increased to cover this. Conversely, there is no perceived increase in hazard due to the Alpine fault. This has generally been considered the major seismic hazard for Christchurch and is not significantly affected by the recent activity. The Alpine fault may fail in an earthquake of up to Magnitude 8, but the distance to the Christchurch CBD is such that the ground accelerations will be highly attenuated. In this case, Christchurch may expect a long duration event with relatively low ground accelerations. As a consequence of the above, it is considered that the MCE earthquake is relatively unchanged; assuming that the Alpine fault is the controlling fault for Christchurch.

STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING SOCIETY NEW ZEALAND

PROPOSED SEISMIC DESIGN LOAD REVISIONS

Taking into account the notes above regarding seismicity, SESOC has recommended to the Department of Building and Housing that the hazard factor in the Canterbury region is increased to a minimum of:
Z = 0.3 , for all periods below T = 1.5 sec

Further, it is recommended that the risk factor for serviceability limit states is increased to:
R = 0.33

The revised z factor is intended only for use for the design and assessment of buildings and structures, pending further research. Structures designed to NZS3604 need separate consideration. If designers are working to NZS3604:1999, the seismic load provisions will not comply. It is recommended that the bracing provisions of NZS3604:2011 are used instead. All structures with periods in excess of 1.5 seconds should be subject to special study, pending further research. Questions still to be resolved are: What is the impact on the MCE? How do we progress the design and evaluation of IL3 and IL4 buildings? If it is assumed that the MCE is unchanged, that would imply that the effective R factor for IL4 may be reduced. However it would be prudent to continue to use the same R factors as before, pending the research outcomes.

John Hare President Structural Engineering Society