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NRCC Leadership Wes Anderson 7/11/13 Summary of Key Survey Findings for AZ-2

Bottom-Line: Should Martha McSally run, Congressman Barber would instantly be one of, if not the most vulnerable incumbent Democrat House member of this current Congress. Our survey of likely voters finds Barber and McSally currently in a statistical tie (46% Barber / 45% McSally / 10% Undecided).

Key Findings
An incumbent with a ballot test under 50% is rightfully considered vulnerable as history demonstrates that the odds of defeating such a candidate are good. In this case, Congressman Barbers poor ballot test is compounded by the fact that he would start the race in a dead heat with McSally. Given the fact that Barber only won the last contest by less than 2,500 votes, these findings strongly suggest he will lose the next contest should McSally run again. The voters of Arizonas 2nd Congressional District have soured on the President. President Obama now holds a net negative image in the district (47% favorable / 51% unfavorable). Likewise, the Presidents job approval is also now upside down in the 2nd district (48% approve / 50% disapprove). o By comparison, our October 2012 survey within the 2nd Congressional District found that the President held net positive numbers for both image and job approval. (Obama Job Approval, Oct 2012, 54% approve / 45% disapprove, Obama Image, Oct 2012, 55% favorable / 44% unfavorable) When the voters were asked if they would prefer to vote for a Democrat who will support President Obamas agenda or a Republican who will be a check and balance to the President, they chose the Republican by a margin of 48% to 44%.

Despite Congressman Barbers attempts to bolster his position following last years election, a majority of the voters in the 2nd Congressional District are currently planning on voting for someone else. If the someone else is Martha McSally, Barbers prospects of reelection are dim.
Methodology
This survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. Telephone interviews were conducted June 17-18, 2013. This survey consists of 400 likely voters registered to vote in Arizonas 2nd Congressional District. Interviews were stratified by county based on previous election results to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for the survey is 4.9%. Wes Anderson is a leading GOP pollster with 20 years of experience in opinion research. As a founding partner Wes now leads the polling divisions of OnMessage Inc. and OnMessage Sports, providing political and corporate clients with a full spectrum of quantitative and qualitative opinion research products. You can read more about Wes Anderson at onmessageinc.com.