SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.958974633 coef de corelatie

0.919632346 coef de determinatie
0.919325599 coef de determinatie ajustat
0.470409534
264

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
663.4168075
57.97670403
721.3935115

MS
663.4168075
0.22128513

Coefficients
Standard Error
0.413966345
0.0454146
1.14286E-05
2.08726E-07

t Stat
9.115270191
54.75415986
t calculat
care se compara
cu valoarea critica
din tabel

1
262
263

Intercept
X Variable 1

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Y estimat
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

Predicted Y
0.415773214
0.415900072
0.416028072
0.416574361
0.416706934
0.416760648
0.417025793
0.417367509
0.417616654
0.417996084
0.418434944
0.419046377
0.42003724
0.420793816
0.421478392
0.421829251
0.422781257
0.423156116
0.423447546
0.423767548
0.424760697
0.425794989

reziduuri
Residuals
-0.411073214
-0.411100072
-0.411328072
-0.409374361
-0.409506934
-0.409660648
-0.409925793
-0.410267509
-0.410416654
-0.410796084
-0.401934944
-0.395046377
-0.39483724
-0.395893816
-0.397178392
-0.397229251
-0.394481257
-0.389256116
-0.375647546
-0.371367548
-0.369260697
-0.368794989

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69

0.427394999
0.429166439
0.430915021
0.432309315
0.433989325
0.435989338
0.442692236
0.444264817
0.44826027
0.451972293
0.456127747
0.463010075
0.469959832
0.474079857
0.477025018
0.480745041
0.486287932
0.490634245
0.494451411
0.496519995
0.497824003
0.499315441
0.502675461
0.506576057
0.509209216
0.511193228
0.513147526
0.514577249
0.515509826
0.517144122
0.518251557
0.519622994
0.522345296
0.523395589
0.525136171
0.529092766
0.533788795
0.538173965
0.539676831
0.542049417
0.544259717
0.546793446
0.553886061
0.555339785
0.56597185
0.571734171
0.575522766

-0.375494999
-0.375566439
-0.374015021
-0.371809315
-0.365089325
-0.362489338
-0.367092236
-0.362564817
-0.36086027
-0.361172293
-0.354427747
-0.348710075
-0.349459832
-0.345179857
-0.322625018
-0.314145041
-0.303887932
-0.300434245
-0.301951411
-0.300019995
-0.292724003
-0.293715441
-0.289275461
-0.287376057
-0.289909216
-0.296393228
-0.293847526
-0.289877249
-0.277509826
-0.269944122
-0.268251557
-0.261822994
-0.256845296
-0.257095589
-0.257436171
-0.247892766
-0.223088795
-0.211873965
-0.210776831
-0.195249417
-0.183659717
-0.183793446
-0.193986061
-0.185539785
-0.18187185
-0.172834171
-0.171922766

70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

0.581000514
0.590626858
0.608847542
0.635526563
0.677114246
0.757931885
0.781669174
0.797336699
0.806145896
0.808854484
0.822749426
0.83627408
0.863635391
0.882832081
0.903937353
0.927799214
0.964742298
0.985418996
1.001000806
1.014376888
1.021922077
1.030055841
1.033975865
1.05073254
1.075427548
1.088068769
1.102718002
1.123449558
1.143837111
1.19025911
1.227933627
1.271187607
1.314854161
1.329730824
1.340888606
1.370436216
1.410246746
1.449987562
1.480223176
1.526178887
1.550276177
1.570642017
1.625980642
1.648052778
1.683025564
1.737297897
1.761608903

-0.168500514
-0.148526858
-0.144047542
-0.034626563
0.120985754
0.074168115
0.023330826
0.014263301
0.005854104
-0.018954484
-0.027749426
-0.01077408
-0.002435391
0.008667919
-0.018137353
-0.026199214
-0.069142298
-0.093918996
-0.085800806
-0.073176888
-0.076922077
-0.073655841
-0.065275865
-0.00533254
0.053072452
0.071131231
0.135581998
0.195050442
0.231362889
0.33984089
0.355566373
0.348912393
0.321045839
0.318969176
0.367011394
0.347663784
0.379253254
0.355612438
0.340776824
0.337321113
0.291723823
0.283157983
0.245319358
0.202647222
0.313974436
0.294402103
0.267891097

117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163

1.799460564
1.837739656
1.87815019
1.914296698
1.969659323
2.004617252
2.037024308
2.080082858
2.109039607
2.136045487
2.158550768
2.197559008
2.232216363
2.276626922
2.327487805
2.368747487
2.41429291
2.437359337
2.444592524
2.486033921
2.524347299
2.549760027
2.56051095
2.578104201
2.591396854
2.627168502
2.683662563
2.717479913
2.747195524
2.76608364
2.791422082
2.816758237
2.828509166
2.849011006
2.8782649
2.884715226
2.937696122
2.97616493
3.013021156
3.043196198
3.072178091
3.088987337
3.102299418
3.117878943
3.125608133
3.141717946
3.176401588

0.257039436
0.262360344
0.27104981
0.386803302
0.494840677
0.468282748
0.447775692
0.407817142
0.381860393
0.337154513
0.368049232
0.487640992
0.522583637
0.513273078
0.453112195
0.451652513
0.41370709
0.367940663
0.425207476
0.445466079
0.553052701
0.641439973
0.71158905
0.658395799
0.656703146
0.635731498
0.675537437
0.706320087
0.812204476
0.77811636
0.790877918
0.839141763
0.933190834
0.957188994
0.8382351
0.833584774
0.854703878
0.83083507
0.978178844
1.014503802
1.037221909
0.968212663
0.903100582
0.951621057
0.930291867
0.933682054
0.920198412

164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210

3.191411965
3.217686412
0.69207091
3.270437593
3.286678836
3.309846978
3.327266514
3.335690565
3.388625747
3.397065799
3.405831567
3.434416886
3.437479761
3.454686724
3.480806885
3.517963684
2.392124773
3.56727873
3.574733861
3.581311959
3.594463697
3.613563928
3.618442587
3.621854493
3.619562022
3.621252318
3.62792093
3.663025146
3.687119008
3.693791392
3.6951242
3.69727987
3.714434719
3.735549934
3.740185391
3.749783964
3.778453969
3.814691677
3.847810509
3.879809677
3.902104785
3.931980397
3.95675312
3.980535895
3.999045837
4.016448001
4.02646212

0.903288035
0.890013588
3.41482909
0.711562407
0.590721164
0.507953022
0.349233486
0.298109435
0.240674253
0.221134201
0.208068433
0.131083114
0.068220239
0.055613276
0.117593115
0.135036316
1.266775227
0.07722127
-0.034333861
-0.073911959
-0.103363697
-0.106463928
-0.070142587
-0.049554493
-0.091862022
-0.094252318
-0.10872093
-0.167625146
-0.273019008
-0.300091392
-0.3127242
-0.32787987
-0.379534719
-0.450549934
-0.513785391
-0.616083964
-0.554753969
-0.468091677
-0.495310509
-0.409109677
-0.373204785
-0.238980397
-0.30395312
-0.258735895
-0.356445837
-0.357048001
-0.37076212

211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257

4.051492102
4.04836774
4.062819371
4.101543038
4.113493625
4.121909563
4.167877845
4.200840219
4.219827192
4.230236856
4.230686116
4.238170619
4.235671747
4.228497303
4.243194764
4.25996561
4.285564967
4.297809842
4.363100757
4.370859548
4.379522001
4.393471001
4.399323608
4.405556447
4.508361078
4.517674849
4.540602418
4.563168271
4.584838576
4.606880197
4.639236967
4.671722995
4.697246123
4.725438296
4.73456258
4.722158047
4.706896239
4.692040948
4.683150951
4.710442661
4.7283758
4.738506719
4.754153215
4.781948471
4.800123326
4.803069172
4.803962435

-0.472292102
-0.52156774
-0.437419371
-0.356143038
-0.338193625
-0.206609563
0.064822155
0.083059781
0.062272808
-0.034836856
-0.061786116
-0.025570619
-0.018871747
-0.009997303
-0.004294764
0.02483439
0.002535033
-0.073009842
-0.222200757
-0.252959548
-0.291622001
-0.264971001
-0.225023608
-0.165956447
-0.247261078
-0.278774849
-0.276402418
-0.283368271
-0.291738576
-0.314380197
-0.377036967
-0.424522995
-0.532646123
-0.626238296
-0.62256258
-0.529258047
-0.466396239
-0.441940948
-0.401150951
-0.386642661
-0.3747758
-0.411806719
-0.411353215
-0.431348471
-0.434923326
-0.427069172
-0.365862435

258
259
260
261
262
263
264

4.809960872
4.83573463
4.858129625
4.91050766
4.92351734
4.925221808
4.952472947

-0.349660872
-0.28733463
-0.341829625
-0.40980766
-0.36521734
-0.399721808
-0.462972947

MODELUL DE REGRESIE LINIARA SIMPLA

F
Significance F
2998.018022 1.9E-145

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
2.11427E-17 0.324542 0.50339 0.324542 0.50339
1.8883E-145
1.1E-05 1.18E-05
1.1E-05 1.18E-05
p-value<0.05
coeficient diferit de 0
rezulta modelul e valid

INSTALARE DATA ANALYSIS

FILE->OPTIONS->ADD-INS(IN STANGA)->ANALYSIS TOOLPAK->GO->SELECTARE PRIN BIFARE A OPTIU
DATA->DATA ANALYSIS->REGRESSION

UL DE REGRESIE LINIARA SIMPLA

cs real(t)=0.413966345+1.1428E-05*IPC(t)

SELECTARE PRIN BIFARE A OPTIUNII ANALYSIS TOOLPAK->OK

z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Mean
Known Variance
Observations
Hypothesized Mean Difference
z
P(Z<=z) one-tail
z Critical one-tail
P(Z<=z) two-tail
z Critical two-tail

variante diferite
Variable 1
167634.6147
0.5
264
0
2486388.595
0
1.644853627
0
1.959963985

Variable 2
2.329802273
0.7
264

aceeasi varianta
z-Test: Two Sample for Means

Mean
Known Variance
Observations
Hypothesized Mean Difference
z
P(Z<=z) one-tail
z Critical one-tail
P(Z<=z) two-tail
z Critical two-tail

Variable 1
167634.6147
0.5
264
0
2723702.24
0
1.644853627
0
1.959963985

Variable 2
2.329802273
0.5
264

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

Variable 1
Mean
233.8777778
Variance
3185.501944
Observations
9
Pooled Variance
1698.934371
Hypothesized Mean Difference
0
df
15
t Stat
11.67698876
P(T<=t) one-tail
3.13541E-09
t Critical one-tail
1.753050356
P(T<=t) two-tail
6.27083E-09
t Critical two-tail
2.131449546

Variable 2
0.0062375
1.55411E-06
8

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances

Variable 1
Mean
233.8777778
Variance
3185.501944
Observations
9
Hypothesized Mean Difference
0
df
8
t Stat
12.43109813
P(T<=t) one-tail
8.18776E-07
t Critical one-tail
1.859548038
P(T<=t) two-tail
1.63755E-06
t Critical two-tail
2.306004135

Variable 2
0.006344444
1.46278E-06
9

1991M01
1991M02
1991M03
1991M04
1991M05
1991M06
1991M07
1991M08
1991M09
1991M10
1991M11
1991M12
1992M01
1992M02
1992M03
1992M04
1992M05
1992M06
1992M07
1992M08
1992M09
1992M10
1992M11
1992M12
1993M01
1993M02
1993M03
1993M04
1993M05
1993M06
1993M07
1993M08
1993M09
1993M10
1993M11
1993M12
1994M01
1994M02
1994M03
1994M04
1994M05
1994M06
1994M07
1994M08
1994M09
1994M10

IPC (preturi comparabile, dec.cs

1990=100)
real
158.1
0.0047
169.2
0.0048
180.4
0.0047
228.2
0.0072
239.8
0.0072
244.5
0.0071
267.7
0.0071
297.6
0.0071
319.4
0.0072
352.6
0.0072
391
0.0165
444.5
0.024
531.2
0.0252
597.4
0.0249
657.3
0.0243
688
0.0246
771.3
0.0283
804.1
0.0339
829.6
0.0478
857.6
0.0524
944.5
0.0555
1035
0.057
1175
0.0519
1330
0.0536
1483
0.0569
1605
0.0605
1752
0.0689
1927
0.0735
2513.5
0.0756
2651.1
0.0817
3000.7
0.0874
3325.5
0.0908
3689.1
0.1017
4291.3
0.1143
4899.4
0.1205
5259.9
0.1289
5517.6
0.1544
5843.1
0.1666
6328.1
0.1824
6708.4
0.1902
7042.4
0.1925
7223.4
0.1965
7337.5
0.2051
7468
0.2056
7762
0.2134
8103.3
0.2192

1994M11
1994M12
1995M01
1995M02
1995M03
1995M04
1995M05
1995M06
1995M07
1995M08
1995M09
1995M10
1995M11
1995M12
1996M01
1996M02
1996M03
1996M04
1996M05
1996M06
1996M07
1996M08
1996M09
1996M10
1996M11
1996M12
1997M01
1997M02
1997M03
1997M04
1997M05
1997M06
1997M07
1997M08
1997M09
1997M10
1997M11
1997M12
1998M01
1998M02
1998M03
1998M04
1998M05
1998M06
1998M07
1998M08
1998M09

8333.7
8507.3
8678.3
8803.4
8885
9028
9124.9
9244.9
9483.1
9575
9727.3
10073.5
10484.4
10868.1
10999.6
11207.2
11400.6
11622.3
12242.9
12370.1
13300.4
13804.6
14136.1
14615.4
15457.7
17052
19386.4
23025.3
30096.8
32173.8
33544.7
34315.5
34552.5
35768.3
36951.7
39345.8
41025.5
42872.2
44960.1
48192.6
50001.8
51365.2
52535.6
53195.8
53907.5
54250.5
55716.7

0.2193
0.2148
0.2193
0.2247
0.238
0.2472
0.25
0.2578
0.2655
0.2663
0.2677
0.2812
0.3107
0.3263
0.3289
0.3468
0.3606
0.363
0.3599
0.3698
0.3841
0.3989
0.4036
0.4125
0.4421
0.4648
0.6009
0.7981
0.8321
0.805
0.8116
0.812
0.7899
0.795
0.8255
0.8612
0.8915
0.8858
0.9016
0.8956
0.8915
0.9152
0.9412
0.945
0.9564
0.9687
1.0454

1998M10
1998M11
1998M12
1999M01
1999M02
1999M03
1999M04
1999M05
1999M06
1999M07
1999M08
1999M09
1999M10
1999M11
1999M12
2000M01
2000M02
2000M03
2000M04
2000M05
2000M06
2000M07
2000M08
2000M09
2000M10
2000M11
2000M12
2001M01
2001M02
2001M03
2001M04
2001M05
2001M06
2001M07
2001M08
2001M09
2001M10
2001M11
2001M12
2002M01
2002M02
2002M03
2002M04
2002M05
2002M06
2002M07
2002M08

57877.5
58983.6
60265.4
62079.4
63863.3
67925.2
71221.7
75006.4
78827.2
80128.9
81105.2
83690.6
87174
90651.3
93296.9
97318
99426.5
101208.5
106050.6
107981.9
111042
115790.8
117918
121230
124579.4
128115.3
131278.1
136122.3
139181.1
142016.7
145784.3
148318
150681
152650.2
156063.4
159095.9
162981.8
167432.1
171042.3
175027.5
177045.8
177678.7
181304.8
184657.2
186880.8
187821.5
189360.9

1.1285
1.1592
1.2383
1.3185
1.3752
1.5301
1.5835
1.6201
1.6359
1.6487
1.7079
1.7181
1.7895
1.8056
1.821
1.8635
1.842
1.8538
1.8713
1.8507
1.997
2.0317
2.0295
2.0565
2.1001
2.1492
2.3011
2.4645
2.4729
2.4848
2.4879
2.4909
2.4732
2.5266
2.6852
2.7548
2.7899
2.7806
2.8204
2.828
2.8053
2.8698
2.9315
3.0774
3.1912
3.2721
3.2365

2002M09
2002M10
2002M11
2002M12
2003M01
2003M02
2003M03
2003M04
2003M05
2003M06
2003M07
2003M08
2003M09
2003M10
2003M11
2003M12
2004M01
2004M02
2004M03
2004M04
2004M05
2004M06
2004M07
2004M08
2004M09
2004M10
2004M11
2004M12
2005M01
2005M02
2005M03
2005M04
2005M05
2005M06
2005M07
2005M08
2005M09
2005M10
2005M11
2005M12
2006M01
2006M02
2006M03
2006M04
2006M05
2006M06
2006M07

190524
193654
198597.2
201556.2
204156.3
205809
208026.1
210243
211271.2
213065.1
215624.8
216189.2
220825
224191
227415.9
230056.2
232592.1
234062.9
235227.7
236590.9
237267.2
238676.8
241711.6
243025
245324
24334
249939.7
251360.8
253388
254912.2
255649.3
260281.1
261019.6
261786.6
264287.8
264555.8
266061.4
268346.9
271598.1
173087.8
275913.14
276565.46
277141.04
278291.81
279963.07
280389.95
280688.49

3.2481
3.2629
3.3592
3.4238
3.5594
3.5442
3.5823
3.6559
3.7617
3.8062
3.7165
3.7183
3.7924
3.807
3.9912
4.0577
4.1094
4.0572
4.0054
4.0695
4.0559
4.0754
4.0966
4.0947
4.1077
4.1069
3.982
3.8774
3.8178
3.6765
3.6338
3.6293
3.6182
3.6139
3.5655
3.5057
3.5103
3.5984
3.653
3.6589
3.6445
3.5404
3.5074
3.4911
3.5071
3.5483
3.5723

2006M08
2006M09
2006M10
2006M11
2006M12
2007M01
2007M02
2007M03
2007M04
2007M05
2007M06
2007M07
2007M08
2007M09
2007M10
2007M11
2007M12
2008M01
2008M02
2008M03
2008M04
2008M05
2008M06
2008M07
2008M08
2008M09
2008M10
2008M11
2008M12
2009M01
2009M02
2009M03
2009M04
2009M05
2009M06
2009M07
2009M08
2009M09
2009M10
2009M11
2009M12
2010M01
2010M02
2010M03
2010M04
2010M05
2010M06

280487.9
280635.8
281219.3
284290.9
286399.1
286982.93
287099.55
287288.17
288789.21
290636.78
291042.38
291882.25
294390.86
297561.64
300459.52
303259.43
305210.24
307824.34
309991.94
312072.92
313692.53
315215.21
316091.44
318281.55
318008.17
319272.68
322660.98
323706.65
324443.04
328465.24
331349.43
333010.78
333921.62
333960.93
334615.82
334397.17
333769.41
335055.43
336522.87
338762.8
339834.22
345547.14
346226.03
346983.99
348204.52
348716.62
349261.99

3.5277
3.527
3.5192
3.4954
3.4141
3.3937
3.3824
3.3694
3.3349
3.285
3.2264
3.1337
3.2237
3.3466
3.3525
3.4707
3.5289
3.693
3.6528
3.7218
3.6426
3.6594
3.6557
3.5792
3.5268
3.6254
3.7454
3.7753
3.9153
4.2327
4.2839
4.2821
4.1954
4.1689
4.2126
4.2168
4.2185
4.2389
4.2848
4.2881
4.2248
4.1409
4.1179
4.0879
4.1285
4.1743
4.2396

2010M07
2010M08
2010M09
2010M10
2010M11
2010M12
2011M01
2011M02
2011M03
2011M04
2011M05
2011M06
2011M07
2011M08
2011M09
2011M10
2011M11
2011M12
2012M01
2012M02
2012M03
2012M04
2012M05
2012M06
2012M07
2012M08
2012M09
2012M10
2012M11
2012M12

358257.34
359072.29
361078.44
363052.94
364949.08
366877.71
369708.91
372551.42
374784.68
377251.48
378049.85
376964.46
375629.06
374329.23
373551.36
375939.37
377508.51
378394.96
379764.02
382196.09
383786.38
384044.14
384122.3
384647.16
386902.35
388861.9
393444.95
394583.29
394732.43
397116.89

4.2611
4.2389
4.2642
4.2798
4.2931
4.2925
4.2622
4.2472
4.1646
4.0992
4.112
4.1929
4.2405
4.2501
4.282
4.3238
4.3536
4.3267
4.3428
4.3506
4.3652
4.376
4.4381
4.4603
4.5484
4.5163
4.5007
4.5583
4.5255
4.4895