Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Inflation rises to 4.86% in June, onion prices shoot up by 114%
Inflation rose to 4.86 per cent in June, driven mainly by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables including onion. Inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) had stood at 4.70 per cent in May. In June, 2012, it was 7.58 per cent. As per official data released on Monday, WPI inflation in the food articles category rose to 9.74 per cent, driven mainly by price rise in onion, cereals and rice. The rate of price rise in food articles, which has a 14.34 per cent share in the WPI basket, was 8.25 per cent in May. Inflation in onion shot up by 114 per cent in June, from 97.40 per cent in the previous month. Vegetables prices too went up by 16.47 per cent during the month, from 4.85 per cent in May. It was ()9.05 per cent in April. Inflation in the manufactured items category, however, declined to 2.75 per cent in June from 3.11 per cent in May.
(Source: The Hindu)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 15, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20034 6031 59.82 106.32 1283.8

0.38 0.36 -0.13 0.35 0.47

3.67 3.77 -1.45 3.08 3.96

6.41 5.82 3.12 9.96 -6.81

16.39 15.37 8.47 22.07 -19.34

.Source: Reuters

Export controls are disastrous

The Textile Ministry wants to create a Market Stabilisation Fund (MSF) by imposing a cess/tax between Rs 1,000 and 2,000 per candy (356 kg) on cotton exporters. The new policy suggests that surpluses only may be permitted for exports after determining domestic demand. Some of the other straight out of the 70s ideas are to permit exports after the crop is ready with farmers; and providing loan waver for weavers. Indian cotton export has demonstrated consistent performance over the last three years $3-$4 billion per annum. This year, it may decline to $2 billion (one million tonnes). Chinas appetite for imports is taperi ng. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report of July 11 reflects higher global inventories, production almost unchanged at a high of 20 million tonnes (118 million bales) and falling prices. The need of the hour is to ensure more exports at best prices to improve foreign exchange earnings and bring down the current account deficit, especially due to the highestever output seen in 2013-14 owing to a good monsoon. (Source: Business Line)

Cotton exports drop 36% to 9.14 m bales till June: USDA

Indias cotton exports are estimated to have plummeted by 36 per cent to 9.14 million bales in the first 11 months ended June of the current marketing year. The country had shipped 13.91 million bales of cotton during August-June 2011-12 marketing year. One bale contains 170 kg of cotton. The cotton marketing year runs from August to July. Preliminary data suggest that exports reached 9.1 million bales through end of June, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report. According to trade sources, exports however have started picking up again with major trading firms busy buying at the Cotton Corporation of India auctions. (Source: Business Line)

Malaysia keeps palm oil export tax unchanged for a sixth month
Malaysia left the tax on crude palm oil exports unchanged for a sixth month in August as the worlds second-largest producer seeks to boost shipments amid falling demand. Futures dropped to a two-month low. Shipments will be taxed at 4.5 percent next month as the reference price was set at 2,383.84 ringgit ($748) a metric ton, within the minimum band for a levy to be applied, according to a Customs Department statement. The tariff was zero in January and February before being raised to 4.5 percent in March. Futures of the tropical oil, which competes with soybean oil in food and biofuels uses, have tumbled 27 percent in the past year as production outpaced demand, boosting inventories in Malaysia to a record in December. (Source: Bloomberg)

Sunflower oil demand boosts vegoil imports by 21% in June

Vegetable oil imports increased by 21 per cent in June to 9,47,591 tonnes against 7,83,315 tonnes during the same period a year ago. Edible oil imports were up at 911,091 tonnes against 892,066 tonnes in May, while non-edible oil shipments were 36,500 tonnes against 25,898 tonnes. The sharp rise in vegetable oil imports were largely due to jump in demand for sunflower oil. Refined palm oil shipments more than doubled to 2,96,230 tonnes in June against 1,27, 619 tonnes in the same period a year ago. Crude palm oil imports were down seven per cent at 3,53,542 tonnes (3,81,613 tonnes). Sunflower oil imports were up 15 per cent at 1,01,480 tonnes (87,859 tonnes). Overall import of vegetable oils in the oil year (between November and June) was up 12 per cent at 71,45,060 tonnes against 63,95,199 tonnes. (Business Line)

Delhi to continue sugar subsidy

The Delhi Government will continue to supply sugar at subsidised rates to 3.6 lakh beneficiaries who are Below Poverty Line and Antodaya Anna Yojana card-holder families. On Monday, the Cabinet approved a mechanism to continue the existing facility at the subsidised rate of Rs.13.50 per kg even after the Union Government decided to abolish the levy on sugar. Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, who chaired the Cabinet meeting, said her Government will now procure 2,200 metric tonnes of sugar per month through the Delhi State Civil Supplies Corporation from the open market through competitive bidding. The Government will bear the price difference so as to ensure the existing rate of Rs.13.50 per kg. (Source: The Hindu)

Veg oil import up 21% in June; 12% in Nov-Jun period

Vegetable oil imports increased by 21% in June to 9.47 lakh tonnes due to lower domestic production and rising local demand for cooking oils, according to industry data released today. Import of vegetable oils, which comprises edible and non-edible oils, rose by 12% during the November 2012 and June 2013 period at 71.45 lakh tonnes compared to 63.95 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period of previous year. "Imports have increased because of lower domestic production last year. The new crop will come only in November. Moreover, local demand is also rising," Solvent Extractors' Association Executive Director BV Mehta said. The industry body pegged the vegetable oils imports at a new record level of at 107-110 lakh tonnes in 2012-13 marketing year (November to October) compared to about 102 lakh tonnes in the previous year. (Source:
Financial Express)

Brazilian raw-sugar discount narrows as producers favor ethanol

Buyers of raw sugar from Brazil,the worlds top producer, are getting a smaller discount for the sweetener as millers use more of their raw material to make ethanol. Millers in the center south, Brazils main growing region,used 58.1 percent of all the cane processed in the second half of June to make ethanol, industry group Unica said on July 10. (Source:
Bloomberg)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After declining sharply last week, Chana futures gained on account of bargain buying on Monday. Chana spot as well as August futures settled 1.23% and 1.17% higher yesterday. Comfortable supplies, subdued demand and higher sowing of kharif pulses have exerted downside pressure on the chana prices in since last three weeks. CCEA is in favor of imposing 7.5% import duty on Pulses. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Pulses sowing have been observed at 25.95 lakh hectares as compared to 13.04 lakh hectares during the same time last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 15, 2013 % change Last 3088 2992 Prev day 1.23 1.60 WoW -0.46 -1.03 MoM -4.30 -7.34
Source: Reuters

YoY -33.90 -35.34

Spread Matrix
Closing 3087.5 2992 3024 3086 19-Jul-13 -95.5 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -63.5 32 0 20-Sep-13 -1.5 94 62 0 as on July 13, 2013 Stocks as on 11th July 82085 60953 11592 154630 Qty in Process 201 101 698 1000

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 13th July 82317 60980 11592 154889 Qty in Process 309 111 938 1358

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of yellow peas in the month of June 2013 declined to 0.83 lakh metric tons compared to 1.21 la metric tons during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices may trade with upward bias in the early part of the session on account of bargain buying. However, higher supplies and smooth sowing progress may continue to exert downside pressure on the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 16, 2013 Resistance 3050-3080

2965-2995

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures opened weak extending the losses of the preceding two sessions on account of higher sowing of the new crop. However, prices recovered from lower levels and settled 1.33% higher due to good demand from the crushing industry for its meal. Also, a weak Rupee coupled with tight supplies of the bean supported the prices supported prices at lower levels. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. Oilseeds were planted in 135.99 la ha as on 12 July, 2013. The same was observed at 67.70 la ha during the corresponding period last year. th Soybean was sown on 28.42 la ha in Maharashtra as on 11 July 2013 as against 26.4 la ha during the same period last year. Similarly, in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, sowing was seen at 0.43, 9.2 and 2.42 la ha respectively. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets Soybean November futures on the CBOT traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.87% higher on Monday after the USDA weekly crop condition report decreased good to excellent rating to 65% from 67% last week. Hot and dry weather conditions have deteriorated the crops, especially in Kansas and Nebraska. The USDA monthly crop concerns over expectations of hotter and dried weather in the US Midwest may affect the crop. USDA has released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and has kept the yield unchanged at 44.5 bushel per acre. US Soybean production is projected at 3.42 bn bushels, up 30 mn due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 76.9 mn acres in the June 28 Acreage report, is 0.7 mn above the June projection. The 2013/14 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 mn tons, up 0.6 mn.
th

Market Highlights

as on July 15, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.11 -0.19 0.54 -7.00 -0.32 0.29 2.97 -9.66 0.22 -0.99

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl

Last 3757 3795

MoM -4.96 -2.59 -4.14 0.22 -2.60

`/qtl

1454 USc/Bsh 3508

`/qtl

3404
`/qtl

YoY 15.21 14.53 11.46 16.68 19.01

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3757 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3795 3157 3165 0 -638 0 19-Jul-13 38 18-Oct-13 -600

as on July 15, 2013 20-Nov-13 -592 -630 8 0 as on July 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -54.75 49 0 20-Sep-13 -12.75 91 42 0 as on July 13, 2013 Qty in Process 30 0 0 30 as on July 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 81 0 503 91 119 794 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3507.75 3404 3453 3495 19-Jul-13 -103.75 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 13th July 16792 921 331 18044 Stocks as on 11th July 3040 4549 20708 634 63698 5213 1920 18044 Qty in Process 60 0 0 60 Qty in Process 0 0 71 0 512 91 120 794 Stocks as on 11th July 16792 921 331 18044 Stocks as on 11th July 3040 4549 20688 634 63597 5193 1811 99512

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note today. Higher international prices and expectation of weak Rupee may support prices. Good demand from the crushing industry may also support prices. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may cap the gains..

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures gained 0.94% on account of short coverings as well as higher edible oilseed. Prices have decline on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets coupled with an increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds pressurized prices at higher levels Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, demand at lower levels may support prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 3075-3115 3380-3415 Resistance 3190-3225 3480-3510

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil opened lower in the intraday tracking soft soybean prices. However, prices recovered towards the end on account of festive season demand as well as positive soybean prices. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 688.15 688.90 45.84 2330 498.00 Prev day -0.44 0.06 -0.54 0.00 -0.66

as on July 15, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -0.73 -0.07 -2.49 -1.65 -3.02

MoM -3.50 -3.41 -5.45 -3.32 0.06

YoY -12.03 -12.47 -14.43 -22.72 -11.81

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 688.15 688.9 672.05 658.2 19-Jul-13 0.75 0 20-Aug-13 -16.1 -16.85 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Sep-13 -29.95 -30.7 -13.85 0 as on July 15, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a mixed note with a positive bias as festive demand may support prices at lower levels. Prices will also track the Rupee movement in the intraday.

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded on a negative note tracking weak international markets coupled with lower imports due to higher prices and settled 0.66% lower on Monday. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined in June by 21% from a record high in May due to weak Rupee. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 296,290 tonnes of refined palm oil in June. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamor for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 498 498.1 493.1 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 0.1 0 -

30-Sept-13 -4.9 -5 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade lower today tracking weak international markets. However, expectations that government may increase import tax on refined edible oils may support prices. Expectations of a weak Rupee may also support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 665-668 491-495 Resistance

Source: Telequote

677-681 502-506

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures traded on a positive note throughout the day on account of robust export demand as well as higher prices in all the spices. However, higher than expected arrivals as well as good rains in the main jeera growing regions capped sharp gains. Prices corrected from higher levels towards the end of the session due to profit booking and settled 0.22% higher. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 12178 tn of jeera in May. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam and USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,350 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13767 13568 5767 5948 Prev day -0.03 0.35 3.06 4.02

as on July 15, 2013 % Change WoW 1.27 1.69 1.89 3.05 MoM 2.23 4.01 4.37 6.86 YoY 10.89 12.20 30.68 22.89

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13767 13567.5 13780 14052.5 19-Jul-13 -199.5 0 20-Aug-13 13 212.5 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Sep-13 285.5 485 272.5 0 as on July 15, 2013 19-Jul-13 181.35 0 20-Aug-13 265.35 84 0 20-Sep-13 301.35 120 36 0 as on July 13, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 11th July Process 1344 6904 8248 7088 NCDEX August contract 77 66 143 267

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5766.65 5948 6032 6068

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade higher supported by robust overseas demand. However, higher supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 13th July 1422 6574 7996 7315 Qty in Process 9 84 93 129

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a bullish note yesterday and hit the upper limit due to good overseas as well as domestic enquiries. Declining arrivals have also supported prices. Sowing in Andhra Pradesh is higher than last year but at par with the normal sowing. The spot as well as the Futures settled 3.06% and 4% higher on Monday.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi were reported at 1,500 bags on Monday. th Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.26 lakh ha as on 10 July, 2013 as against 0.23 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.26 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade higher today extending yesterdays gains supported by good overseas as well as domestic demand. Declining arrivals may also support prices. However, the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may cap sharp gains. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 16, 2013

Support 13550-13640 5860-5940 Resistance 13850-13960 6110-6200
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures remained flat yesterday in both spot as well as futures market. Export orders are seen offsetting higher supplies. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka exerted downside pressure on the sugar prices last week. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013). Iraq issued a tender on Monday to buy a minimum of 50,000 tonnes of white sugar from all origins except India and Thailand. (Source: Reuters) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 2967 `/qtl 480.3 $/tonne 359.11 $/tonne 0.62 0.06 0.00 Last 3064

as on July 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.02 -0.02 -0.74 -3.17 -1.04 MoM 0.00 -3.32 -0.85 -3.69 YoY -5.20 -6.23 -26.99 -28.90

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3063.75 2967 3051 3081 19-Jul-13 -96.75 0 20-Aug-13 -12.75 84 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Sep-13 17.25 114 30 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 13th July 2548 6187 21 1098 11185 Qty in Process 0 50 0 0 50 Stocks as on 11th July 2548 6387 1022 1228 11185

as on July 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE recovered marginally on Monday and settled up by 0.06% Prices declined sharply last week after Rabo bank estimated fourth consecutive year of surplus production in 2013-14. Further abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing also exerted downside pressure on the prices. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up a 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar may trade with trade with upward bias today as increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 3025-3038 Resistance 3060-3070

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures continued with its down trend on account of good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1012.5 19530 85.35 92.45

as on July 15, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.69 -4.35 -0.61 -2.69 0.26 1.81 0.33 0.22 MoM YoY -4.35 #N/A 0.72 11.35 -6.51 18.94 -4.10 11.59
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19530 20370 19900 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 15, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 840 0 370 -470 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has seen a significant increase in sowing at 92.44 la ha as th on 12 July 2013 as against 65.22 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Stocks as on 13th July 10000 5900 117000 21700 900 100 155600

as on July 13, 2013

Stocks as on 11th July 10300 5900 117000 22800 900 100 157000 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton October which declined initially, recovered sharply towards the end as cotton crop condition is reported 42% in good to excellent condition against 45% during the same period last year. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to decline today as chinas plan to reduce stock piles in the next three or more years may turn the sentiments negative. However, sharp downside in the near term may be capped as continue it will its current stockpiling program through 2013.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 1000-1007 19350-19450 Resistance 1020-1028 19630-19740
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures traded on bearish note last week on account of higher sowing, improved rains in the guar belt, as well as comfortable supplies. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 4.47% and 3.45% lower respectively w-o-w. Prices have been on a declining trend on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guar seed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7340 `/qtl 20706 `/qtl 20960 `/qtl 4.02 4.06 4.11 Last Prev day 7323 4.19

as on July 15, 2013 % change WoW 1.31 2.80 1.78 2.75 MoM 2.98 1.24 1.97 -0.80 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 10th July has been 19% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan th on 8 July. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7323.35 7340 5610 5520 19-Jul-13 16.65 0 20-Aug-13 -1713.35 -1730 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1803.35 -1820 -90 0 as on July 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -4616 -4870 0 20-Sep-13 -4846 -5100 -230 0 as on July 13, 2013 Stocks as on 9 July 59 81
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20706 20960 16090 15860 19-Jul-13 254 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 10th July 59 121 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices are expected to decline in the coming days on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 5440-5530 5440-5530 15770-15920 15800-15960 Resistance 5690-5780 5690-5780 16250-16400 16280-16420
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com