2 Introduction To Sampling and Survey Design

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey
Applied Marketing (Market Research Methods) Topic 2: Introduction to sampling and survey design
Dr James Abdey
Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Overview
Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions
Aim:
To establish a common language and understanding of setting up a commercial market research / sample survey
Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Stages of market research
Overview
1. Research brief 2. Research proposal 3. Data collection 4. Data analysis and evaluation 5. Preparation and presentation of research report
Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Stage 1: Research brief
Dene the marketing problem

Exploratory research Consultation Informal discussions
Developing survey objectives

Target population
Stage 2: Research proposal
Overview
Nature of the problem Population involved Methodology to be adopted Estimate time and costs Example: New packaging of a product
Stage 3: Data collection

Survey design (sampling scheme) Questionnaire design Mode of data collection Sample size Sources of error
Sampling error Measurement errors
Aim: To produce meaningful numbers relating to the population studied Bad data will produce bad and useless results!
Stage 4: Data analysis and evaluation

Descriptive statistics (means, proportions, variances, ratios, etc.) Plots and graphs Cross-tabulations Statistical modelling (regression analysis) Multivariate analysis Time series analysis
Stage 5: Presentation of results
Tables Graphs Report Output from statistical analysis should be clearly and appropriately discussed Results discussed must answer the main research questions set in Stage 1
Glossary
Population: Group of people or objects that we would like to study in a particular survey
Target population Survey population
Census: Total enumeration / study of the population Sample: A number of sampling units selected from a population and studied Elementary sampling unit: The element being sampled from a population (individuals, supermarket, hospitals, etc.)
Sample surveys
Surveys involve collecting new data about a population They are based on samples rather than censuses Surveys are conducted in the real world under circumstances that cannot be fully controlled The procedures of sampling are explicit, systematic and standardised The sample sizes can be large They require much planning and teamwork
Examples of sample surveys

Demography: study of births, deaths, family formation, etc. Social psychology: study of perceptions, attitudes, individual and group behaviour Political science: study of voting Market research: study of customer perceptions, choice of products and services, use of services, etc. Government: employment, education, health, income, housing, crime, etc.
Something to think about
Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys
The manager of a multiplex cinema is anxious to know how it is perceived, i.e. the image people have of the cinema Identify three possible populations that may be surveyed to obtain this information
Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Denitions
The aim of sampling is to select a representative sample from a population It is important to understand the mechanisms, limitations and advantages of sampling
Survey objective 1: Fairness

It would be difcult to justify a method that was biased For this reason sampling survey methodology places a great emphasis on unbiased surveys and unbiased estimators Bias can arise from
Sample selection The use of the wrong sampling frame Non-response Other
Selection bias
Selection bias is avoided with the use of random, or probability, sample designs The basic method of simple random sampling (SRS) is used to justify fairness
Survey objective 2: Accuracy
Accuracy is desirable and this is represented by the standard error of an estimator A smaller standard error will result in more concise condence intervals and more efcient tests Note that although SRS will give unbiased estimators, they will often be inaccurate Improve accuracy and maintain unbiasedness by using stratied (random) sampling
Survey objective 3: Cost
A widely used method for reducing cost is cluster sampling Once again this uses SRS to ensure fairness but the survey is conducted in such a way to reduce sampling costs due to travel and time
Sampling frame
A sampling frame is a list of all population elements (for example, register of electors, postcode addresses, etc.) Issues to consider
Adequacy Completeness (missing units) No duplication Accuracy (dynamic populations) Convenience (accessibility)
Sources of national sampling frames in UK

Registor of electors
Compiled in October, published in February 7% of eligible voters are not on the register Names in alphabetical order, not by address No age information
Postcode Address File (PAF)

Used in Family Expenditure Survey General Household Survey Labour Force Survey National Food Survey

Overview
UK 120 Areas
Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics
2700 Districts
Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
8900 Sectors
1.5 million post codes (22 million addresses)
1.3 million small users
1700000 large users
Something for you to think about
Overview
The chamber of commerce in a large town wishes to conduct a random sample of retail outlets in the town It is proposing to use a local commercial directory as a sampling frame To what extent could this sampling frame lead to bias? How might such bias be minimised?
Statistic/estimator and parameter
Overview Stages of market research
Statistic or estimator: any quantity calculated from a sample to estimate a population parameter (for example, sample mean, sample variance, sample proportion, sample percentage) Parameter: The value of an attribute calculated in the population (for example, population mean, population variance, population proportion, population percentage)
Glossary Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Sampling variability and error

Different samples drawn from a xed population have different statistics In contrast, population parameters are xed (constant) Hence we typically experience sampling variability Sampling error refers to the difference between a ) and sample estimate (such as the sample mean, x the value of the population parameter (such as the population mean, ) x
Sampling distribution of a sample statistic

Estimator bias is the difference between the mean (expected) value of the sampling distribution and the true parameter value ) E(X
Sample variance is the spread of the sampling distribution, denoted ) = Var(X ) Variance(X
Statistics and parameters
Sample statistics (calculated using sample data)

Sample mean: X Sample variance: S 2 Sample standard deviation: S
Population parameters (to be estimated using sample statistics)

Population mean: Population variance: 2 Population standard deviation:
Desirable properties for the estimators
) = Unbiasedness for example, E(X Efciency small standard errors Consistency sample statistic approaches the population parameter that is to be estimated as the sample size increases
Probability (or random) sampling

In population (or random) sampling, every population element has a known, non-zero probability of being selected in the sample
Expensive and time consuming Needs a sampling frame
Aims:
To minimise random sampling error To minimise systematic sampling bias
Probability sampling designs
Overview
Simple random sampling Systematic sampling Stratied sampling Cluster sampling Multistage sampling
Simple random sampling (SRS)
Denition: every population element, as well as sets of elements, has the same probability of being selected in the sample Selection is done using a random device, such as a pseudo-random number generator
Simple random sampling (SRS) Example

Suppose a population consists of 4 individuals: Anna, Ben, Claire and David There are 6 possible samples of size n = 2 from a population of size N = 4 Samples AB AC AD BC BD CD Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
The probability of each element (at the rst draw) is P (A) = P (B ) = P (C ) = P (D ) = 1/4
Simple random sampling (SRS)
Advantages
Simplest sample design Produces unbiased results
Disadvantages
Less accurate and less efcient estimates Requires availability of a sampling frame
Formulae for SRS

Sample mean: = X Sample variance: S = : Standard error of X ) = S.E.(X n : ( unknown) Estimated standard error of X S ) = E.S.E.(X n
2 n i =1 (Xi n i =1 Xi
n )2 X n1
Sample size calculation
Select the sample size such that the standard error of a variable is less than or equal to some value k k n n k
2
Example: Sample size how many elements to select?
Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives
Population China UK City Town
Size, N , > 1 billion 65 million 4 million 50,000
Sample size, n ? ? ? ?
Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Stratied random sampling
Overview
This technique achieves greater accuracy by taking advantage of known natural groupings of the population These are called strata and they should be chosen so that units are homogeneous (similar) within strata, but heterogeneous (different) between strata It makes use of SRS to sample units within strata thus giving unbiased estimators

Population elements are divided into strata (groups) based on stratication factors (related to the survey objectives) Stratication factors should be relevant to the survey (for example age, gender or social group) Groups are homogeneous within and heterogeneous between groups A number of elements ni is randomly selected from each of the L strata, i = 1, . . . , L Final sample size is n = n1 + n2 + . . . + nL where n1 is the number of elements selected from stratum 1, etc.
Example stratication factor: Age
Overview Stages of market research Glossary
Population: Students of Market Research Methods N = N1 + N2 + N3
Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Stratum 1 Age group 18-22 N1 n1
Stratum 2 Age group 22-26 N2 n2
Stratum 3 Age group 26+ N3 n3
Stratication sampling allocation

Stratum 1 2 3 4 Stratum size N1 = 100,000 N2 = 50,000 N3 = 25,000 N4 = 25,000 N= 200,000 Equal allocation n1 = 250 n2 = 250 n3 = 250 n4 = 250 n =1,000 Weight
N1 N N2 N N3 N N4 N
= = = =
1 2 1 4 1 8 1 8
Proportional allocation n1 = 500 n2 = 250 n3 = 125 n4 = 125 n =1,000
Disproportionate or optimal stratication

Larger proportions are taken from one stratum than from another according to the variability existing within strata The mean and variance will differ signicantly among strata Example: survey of chemists to investigate selling prices of a range of toiletries
Population of 1,000 chemists 40% owned by Boots (store price variation is limited) 60% owned by others (signicant price variation) How should we choose the sample size?

Advantages:
Most precise and efcient random design (smaller sampling errors) Most representative, signicant characteristics of the population are represented adequately in the different strata
Disadvantages:
Most expensive Stratication information Most difcult to administer
Cluster sampling
Cluster sampling is aimed at economy (cost saving) when the population is widely dispersed The population is again subdivided, but this time into clusters Ideally the clusters are such that each is as variable as the main population and represents it well Only a certain number of the clusters are sampled using SRS sampling only a proportion of the clusters is expected to result in economy Within these randomly selected areas of clusters, every unit is sampled
Cluster sampling
Overview
Clusters should be heterogeneous Suitable when sampling frame does not exist for the whole population Least efcient random design When a subsample is taken from a selected cluster it is called a multistage design
Cluster sampling
Overview
Example: National survey of salesmen in a company, sales areas could be identied and a random selection taken of these
Problems with representation Cluster sampling assumes heterogeneous sample within a selected cluster Advised to use large number of small clusters
Systematic sampling
Systematic sampling is used when the units of the population are ordered in some meaningful way either in position or time Units are sampled at equal distances throughout the population and the rst unit is sampled randomly to give unbiasedness This method can result in greater economy and accuracy than other methods based on the same sample size Uses a sampling interval for selection, for example elements 4, 44, 84, . . . , using sampling interval of 40 It is important to check how the list has been compiled for any cyclicality
Multistage sampling
In multistage sampling, sample selection at two or more successive stages This technique is often adopted in large surveys At the rst stage, large compound units are sampled (primary units) At the second stage, smaller units are sampled from these (secondary units), and several sampling stages of this type may be performed until we at last sample the basic units
Multistage sampling
This technique is commonly used in cluster sampling so that we are at rst sampling main clusters, and then clusters within clusters, etc. We can also use multistage sampling with mixed techniques; i.e. cluster sampling at Stage 1, then stratied sampling at Stage 2, etc. Example: National survey of salesmen in a company, sales areas could be identied
A random selection is taken of these, then instead of interviewing every person in the cluster, only randomly selected people within the cluster will be interviewed
Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Overview Stages of market research Glossary
Non-probability (or non-random) sampling involves judgement or purposive sampling or expert choice Some units in the population do not have a chance of selection Individual units in the population do not have a known chance of being selected
Sample surveys Denitions Survey objectives Sampling frame Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Quota sampling
Quota sampling means selection is controlled to some extent by stratication, weighting and the settings of quotas for each stratum Quotas are set by researchers Selection of the respondents is the responsibility of the interviewers Hence quota sampling is a type of stratied sampling in which the selection of sampling units within strata (such as age, gender or social group) is done by interviewers on a non-random basis, controlled by quotas allocated to different strata
Quota sampling
With quota sampling it is not possible to estimate the sampling error It is fast, cheap, and has administrative simplicity The efciency of the design depends on how representative the sample is
Identify stratication factors that are important to the subject of the survey Proportions of factors within the sample should reect their actual distribution in the population
Quota sampling: example
Control characteristic: Sex Male Female Total
Population composition 48% 52% 100%
Sample composition 48% 52% 100%
Survey objectives Sampling frame
Number 480 520 1000
Statistics Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling
Types of quota sampling

Independent quota sample results in biased selection, hence is unreliable
The interviewer could full the quota entirely from one age group or social class
Interrelated quota sample controls the types of respondents to be interviewed, hence is more reliable
The interviewer has a more difcult job
Types of quota sampling
Overview
Random route or random walk

Start at specied points and call on households at specied intervals expensive and inaccurate
Grid sampling
District selection based on ACORN classication
http://acorn.caci.co.uk/
Region, television area, neighbourhood types
Probability vs. non-probability sampling designs
Probability sampling makes it possible to estimate the margins of sampling error All statistical techniques can be applied Non-probability sampling is sometimes more convenient, cheaper and faster
Census, random or quota sample?
Overview
Census Frame needed Response errors Sampling errors Errors at computing stage Yes Yes No Yes
Random sample Yes Yes Yes (measurable) Yes
Quota sample No (but controls) Yes Yes (not measurable) Yes

2 Introduction To Sampling and Survey Design

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Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions

Stages of market research

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Stage 1: Research brief

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Dene the marketing problem

Developing survey objectives

Stage 2: Research proposal

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Stage 3: Data collection

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Stage 4: Data analysis and evaluation

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Stage 5: Presentation of results

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Examples of sample surveys

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Something to think about

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions

Survey objective 1: Fairness

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys Denitions

Survey objective 2: Accuracy

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Survey objective 3: Cost

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Sources of national sampling frames in UK

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Postcode Address File (PAF)

Postcode Address File (PAF)

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Probability (or random) sampling Non-probability (or non-random) sampling

1.5 million post codes (22 million addresses)

1.3 million small users

1700000 large users

Something for you to think about

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Statistic/estimator and parameter

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research

Sampling variability and error

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Sampling distribution of a sample statistic

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Statistics and parameters

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Sample statistics (calculated using sample data)

Population parameters (to be estimated using sample statistics)

Desirable properties for the estimators

Introduction to sampling and survey design Dr James Abdey

Overview Stages of market research Glossary Sample surveys

Probability (or random) sampling