Editorials February (for Current Affairs - 27

Saving the Railways, for the aam aadmi

th

and 28th July)

(Editorials from The Hindu 15th -28th February 2013)

A Railway Minister is sacked midway through the budget session of Parliament, a rather bizarre first even for the 160-year-old rail network. An information website, http:// railradar.trainenquiry.com/ shows that at any given moment, not more than 60 per cent of the trains are running on time. These two seemingly related, yet unconnected, scenarios have one common factor: the aam aadmi . In the first case, the Ministers well intentioned move to raise lower class passenger fares was seen by the powers that be as blatantly antiaam aadmi . The second is the ultimate manifestation of a policy of relentless proliferation of train services each year in the name of helping the aam aadmi , without adequate line and terminal capacity and supporting infrastructure, leading to an overstrained system. During the last decade, the number of new train services announced during each budget varied from 46 to 105 under four different Railway Ministers. This excludes frequencies of trains which were increased, and extensions of existing services. More than most other sectors, many initiatives and decisions taken (or not taken) by the Railways are supposedly for the benefit of the aam aadmi , the proverbial common man. This focus is unavoidable as the Railways remain the cheapest, yet fastest, mode of travel for the countrys millions. However some of these measures have exactly the opposite effect in the long run. In the case of the burgeoning additional train services, even a minor incident has a cascading effect on the punctuality of a large number of trains, inconveniencing tens of thousands of passengers. Punctuality at intermediate stations is almost non-existent. The Railways own statistics of punctuality put the figure usually above 90 per cent. This is because the Railways reckon punctuality based on the right time of arrival at the destination, irrespective of how late a train is in between, whereas the website shows the actual instantaneous position. To achieve destination punctuality, the running schedule is often padded up with extra time towards the end of the journey. This in effect eats into line capacity. Railways in general and Indian Railways (IR) in particular, because of its large public service footprint and load of unremunerative projects, are inherently unbalanced financially. Long gestation periods of projects, their capital intensive nature and time lag between investment and generation of revenue make substantial budgetary support from the government unavoidable. The usual advice to IR to generate revenues by monetising surplus land or selling off scrap is that much pie in the sky the revenue inflow from such sources is at best sporadic, unpredictable, process-ridden, and, ultimately, self-limiting. Whereas the main items of expenditure staff and fuel/energy costs often vary almost instantaneously, the only immediate means available to even partially offset them is an increase in fares or freight tariff. No one asks a fruit seller whether an apple that cost only Rs.20 till yesterday and now being sold at Rs.30 will taste sweeter. No one expects the duration of power cuts to reduce even if the power tariff is doubled overnight. Such increases are taken in their stride as the natural consequence of inflation, rise in input costs or market forces. But the moment the Railways

increase the fares even nominally, the demand or expectation is for additional facilities. The Railways themselves are to blame to a large extent for nurturing such unreasonable expectations, keeping fares unchanged over long periods, ostensibly in the interest of the aam aadmi . Instead, freight tariffs are increased, either directly or by indirect levies, to compensate the loss on the passenger front. This increases transportation costs of essential commodities, pushing up prices affecting the aam aadmi over a wider population. It is this shifting of the burden from the actual rail users to the society at large that is applauded in Parliament with loud thumping of desks whenever a Railway Minister heroically announces no fare increase. While some cross-subsidisation is unavoidable in the Indian context, prolonged suppression of passenger fares also imposes costs on the society. The setting up of an independent Railway Tariff Regulatory Authority, hinted at in the last budget, should hopefully free the Railways from the politics of fare and freight tariff fixing, pun unintended. The unbalance is also systemic. IR is perhaps the only railway system in the world that still has its own full-fledged medical, security and manufacturing establishments. Consequently, it carries a disproportionately heavy burden of administrative costs. There are more security personnel (60,000) and medical staff (57,000) than train drivers (36,000) apart from 44,000 in the Railways functioning production units. This is not to belittle the contributions of these sectors but to stress that with its present organisational structure, the staff costs are disproportionately high. Added to this is the decadal onslaught of the Pay Commission that delivers a virtual body blow to Railway finances. The last (Sixth) Pay Commission added about Rs.13,000 crore to the annual wage bill, representing a 50 per cent hike during 2008-09. Fine. So, why dont the Railways shed the off-line activities and get out of the ambit of the Pay Commission by appropriate restructuring? More easily said than done. At least four Expert Committees in the last two decades have recommended some form of reorganisation, away from the monolithic bureaucracy of today. But to expect the Railways themselves to initiate any basic structural change is like asking a man to voluntarily jump off a cliff. The initiative or push for such change has to come from outside. And any such change is bound to be painful and even disruptive for a period, and a major political gamble. But given the realities of coalition politics of the day, it is highly unlikely that any government at the centre in the foreseeable future will have the stomach to even attempt such a major initiative. What are the implications of the status quo to the aam aadmi ? First, there is only so much that one can expect, in terms of quality of service, from a monolithic bureaucratically structured entity operating as a virtual monopoly in the railway sector. This is not a reflection on the quality or commitment of a majority of railway personnel but has a lot to do with the incentives driving a form of organisation that is designed for stability, is precedent-driven, risk-averse and focused on vertical, functional silos. Second, as structured at present, heavy staff costs buck the generation of internal resources. The Railway Budget 2012-13 proposed an outlay of Rs.7.35 lakh crore during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017) of which the major share of funding of Rs.2.5 lakh crore (34 per cent) is through gross budgetary support (GBS), followed by Rs.2.18 lakh crore through Extra Budgetary Resources (mainly commercial borrowings), Rs.1.99 lakh crore through internal resource generation (IRG) and the balance from other sources. The Plan is thus heavily dependent on GBS and costly commercial borrowings. Under the circumstances, adequate

and consistent budgetary support becomes a necessity, not an option. It however needs to be remembered that this funding source (GBS) has myriad alternative uses in other crucial sectors affecting the aam aadmi , such as health and education. What are the immediate prospects? There is a window of opportunity presented by the two Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) projects which are already in progress, that can boost the freight earnings substantially and release capacity in the existing trunk routes. It is of utmost importance to complete these projects and make them operational before the effects of the next Pay Commission deal a near-fatal blow to the Railways finances around 2017-18. In the interim, no additional passenger train services should be introduced. For the Railways it is back to basics. While it is necessary to dream about and plan for bullet trains whizzing past at over 300 km/hour, it is useful to remember the lament of an aam aadmi almost a century ago: During the whole journey, not once was the compartment swept or cleaned. The closet was also not cleaned during the journey. No water in tank. The return journey was no better. The compartment itself was evil looking..It was pestilentially dirty Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi, describing a train journey in September 1917. The daily concerns of todays aam aadmi remain unchanged. The period of moratorium on additional passenger train services should be utilised to pull up the quality of basic services offered to the aam aadmi in terms of safety, punctuality, cleanliness and courtesy. As for the political establishment in general and the highest levels of the government in particular, here are a few suggestions: Stop tinkering with the Railways in the name of coalition dharma ; treat it on a par with the Big Four Home, Finance, Defence and External Affairs; evolve a National Railway Policy with consensus across the political spectrum and a long-term common minimum growth plan spanning at least 10 to 15 years, that will be binding irrespective of who or which party or combination is in power. A climate of drift, sudden policy switches and adhocism only serve to keep a great institution far below its true potential. And that perhaps is the biggest disservice that can be meted out to the nations aam aadmi . (K. Balakesari is Former Member Staff/Railway Board. Email: balakesari_k@hotmail.com ) The government must stop tinkering with this public service provider in the name of coalition dharma . There should be a freeze on adding passenger trains and the focus must shift to improving existing services.

Looking East, first in the line of sight

Union External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshids upcoming visit to Bangladesh on February 16-17 is significant on several counts. It will be his first visit since assuming office in 2012, and comes weeks after the two countries signed an extradition treaty. While there, he is expected to chair a meeting of the India Bangladesh Joint Consultative Commission and review the gamut of the relationship. The visit gains further significance in the light of the violence in 2012 between tribals and Muslims in Assam, which is rooted in the issue of illegal migration from Bangladesh. Bangladesh is crucial to Indias Look East policy as New Delhi seeks to foster closer

cooperation with its neighbours to bring about economic development and prosperity in its long-neglected north-east region. Further, Indias foreign policy has a growing regional perspective, of which Bangladesh is an important component. The visit could also lay the groundwork for a landmark visit by President Pranab Mukherjee to Dhaka in March. The relationship has been a priority for both the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government and the Awami League government in Bangladesh, with a host of high-level visits in the past two years. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited New Delhi in January 2010. Under her regime, Bangladesh has also handed over key United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) militants in its territory to India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid a historic visit to Dhaka in September 2011. The visit, the first by an Indian leader in 12 years, resulted in the signing of a crucial boundary swap agreement allowing about 50 Bangladeshi enclaves inside India to be integrated within Bangladesh and about 100 Indian areas inside Bangladesh to become a part of India. Other agreements included promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation; boosting regional connectivity and people-to-people contacts; transmission and distribution of electricity; promotion of educational and cultural cooperation and environmental protection among others. In this context, a relevant development took place in Guwahati on February 1 in the form of the Maitree Summit, a track-II dialogue between India and Bangladesh. The summit gains significance on account of some of its important observations and recommendations. Organised by the Youth Forum on Foreign Policy (YFFP), a Delhi-based think tank and the British Deputy High Commission in Kolkata, the dialogue brought together Indian and Bangladeshi speakers from academia, media, business and politics and held out the promise of stronger cooperation between the two neighbours. The broad message was the need for India and Bangladesh to cooperate in as many areas as possible including the development of infrastructure, labour and skills, mitigating environmental disasters and diplomacy. Joint academic cooperation as a means to address issues complicating the India-Bangladesh relationship could focus on research on illegal migration, the enclaves, arms proliferation, drug trafficking, transition rights, water-sharing, terrorism and fundamentalism. Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi made a strong pitch for boosting trade, cultural and transport links between north-east India and Bangladesh as it would benefit the entire region. He also alluded to the common destiny of the two regions Assam and Bangladesh face climate change, floods, soil erosion, a porous border and smuggling and called for joint efforts to tackle them. The future of north-east India also depended on relationships with neighbours such as Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar. The Bangladeshi delegates expressed disappointment over the failure to reach an agreement regarding the sharing of Teesta waters when Dr. Singh visited in 2011. There was also a sense that Bangladesh sought an equal standing in its relationship with India. While acknowledging that Dhaka needs New Delhi, it was pointed out that China and Myanmar were also helping Bangladesh in several areas. It was also in Indias interests to see a stable and prosperous Bangladesh because of the inextricable ties between the two countries.

A survey conducted by YFFP in January showed that young Indians did not appear to give much importance to their immediate neighbours, other than China and Pakistan. Only three per cent of the respondents felt Bangladesh is important while 43 per cent said relations with the United States are the most significant, followed by China and Pakistan. While the summit stressed the importance of people-to-people contacts in enhancing IndiaBangladesh ties, the survey points to the need for more young people to be involved in such contacts. (Gaurav Gogoi is co-founder, Youth Forum on Foreign Policy. Urvashi Sarkar and Pratyush N. are freelance journalists) A prosperous Bangladesh is in Indias interest, and will benefit its north-east States

Facing the acid test

The last thing the country wanted was another victim of gender-based violence in India succumbing to injuries long after the crime had been committed. The death of J. Vinodhini, a 23-year-old B. Tech graduate, due to complications caused by a heinous acid attack in Puducherry on November 14 last year, is not just another addition to the large and, regrettably, increasing database of offences against women; rather, it is an example of the inexplicable masculine tendency to inflict grave injury on women in such manner that someone merely going about her life is converted overnight into a symbol of victimhood, forced into a battle for survival and then transformed by death into a brave-heart she did not aspire to be. On the surface, such attacks may be the perverse product of unrequited love but they bear the ugly imprint of a violent, patriarchal culture that valorises the right of a man to stalk, possess and eventually even disfigure the woman he desires. All will empathise with the trauma and agony undergone by Vinodhini and her family due to the senseless act of a spurned suitor. It is only appropriate that the law recognises their pain and the need for meet justice. The Justice Verma Committee recommendations on this find expression in two new sections in the Indian Penal Code (Sections 326A and 326B) introduced by the February 3, 2013, ordinance. These envisage a maximum of 10 years in jail for those causing disability or disfigurement through the use of acid, and a five-year term for throwing or trying to throw acid on another. Since the fear of arrest under stringent laws is unlikely to deter a crime of passion, experts feel the primary effort to curb acid attacks must lie in reducing easy access to the means to commit the crime. The Supreme Court has directed State governments and the Centre to meet and discuss provisions to regulate the sale of acid, to ensure treatment, care and rehabilitation of victims, and for payment of compensation. Scaling up facilities for psychotherapy for those feeling depressed or rejected is another possible intervention. Be it the physiotherapy student in Delhi who is now an iconic figure in the copious annals of sexual violence in our country, or Laxmi, an acid attack victim who approached the Supreme Court in 2006 seeking a special law to deal with the use of acid to maim women physically and destroy them psychologically, it is not enough to remember their courageous fight for staying alive or their desire to bring their assailants to justice for their symbolic value. Rather, their death and suffering should occasion a determined revisiting of our laws and practices, attitudes and prejudices.

Wrestling with a shocker

The Executive Board of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has come up with a shocker by voting to recommend that wrestling be pushed off the Olympic mat in 2020. It is an unexpected, cruel blow to a sport that was part of the ancient Olympics and figured in the inaugural modern Games in 1896 and every subsequent edition except 1900. If it finally goes out of the 2020 programme, it will be the biggest sport yet to be axed from the Games. The IOC Board has expectedly drawn flak from around the globe for its decision but a final picture will only emerge at its General Assembly meeting in September when the venue for the 2020 Games will also be chosen. Wrestling will get another chance in May when it will be clubbed with seven other previously-approved disciplines for consideration of the IOC Board which may recommend more than one sport to its Session, although just one will make it eventually. The IOC goes through an elaborate assessment before deleting or including a sport in the Olympic programme. That is precisely the reason why its latest decision is looking downright absurd if not biased. In a majority of the 39 criteria that the IOC programme commission applies to formulate its evaluation report after every Olympics, wrestling should score over at least modern pentathlon, which was widely tipped to get the axe. Several critics, besides the International Wrestling Federation, have pointed out that a clash of interests among the IOC board members voting to pick the 25 core sports for the 2020 Games could have contributed to the outcome. The question of excluding modern pentathlon, a sport that combines fencing, swimming, horseback riding, shooting and running, invented by Baron Pierre de Coubertin, founder of the modern Olympic Games, might have touched an emotional chord among the members. But there is no denying the more popular appeal of wrestling, a sport that is easy to follow, and, alongside running, is an elemental discipline that embodies the spirit of the Olympics. The fact that wrestling had medal winners from 29 countries, more than the number of participating nations (26) in modern pentathlon at the last Olympics, should clinch the argument about universality, something the IOC seriously advocates. The IOC Board does not have a member from any of the dominant wrestling powers including the U.S. and Russia. India, which won two of its six medals in the London Olympics in wrestling and has four in all from the sport is justifiably upset at a time when its National Olympic Committee stands suspended. Subtle diplomacy, rather than strident criticism against the IOC, may yet help the Sports Ministry contribute to the rescue of the sport.

In search of a revolutionary road

The American Psychiatric Association (APA) will release the fifth edition of its Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5) in May 2013. DSM-5 has been years in the making. The process included planning sessions, international research conferences, review of literature, a series of monographs, secondary analysis of data and field trials involving hundreds of scientists and clinicians, drawn from many countries and disciplines, and feedback from the public. Many interest groups neurologists, psychologists, insurance and pharmaceutical industries, legal and forensic fraternity, military veterans and anti-psychiatry groups have been watching the process and outcome closely as the DSM has a wide impact. The Indian Psychiatric Society also submitted its views to the APA. The DSM-5 has pursued the basic framework adopted by its forerunners, DSM-III and its successors DSM III R, IV and IV TR. DSM III, with its atheoretical approach, objective

diagnostic criteria and specific exclusions, was revolutionary at the time of its introduction in 1980. Its focus on standardised diagnosis and on improving inter-rater reliability had a major impact on psychiatric practice and research. It soon became the international standard. The absence of laboratory tests to diagnose mental disorders forced psychiatry to focus on clinical presentations for this purpose. The lack of pathognomonic symptoms required the discipline to rely on identifying collections of symptoms to define clinical syndromes. Psychiatric classifications include medical conditions (e.g. delirium, dementia and psychiatric manifestations of medical diseases), severe mental disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorders, psychotic depression, and stupor) and stress-related conditions (e.g. depression, anxiety and adjustment disorders). The DSM laid out objective criteria for diagnosis. It offered differential diagnosis in order to distinguish similar conditions. It allowed psychiatrists working around the globe to read from the same page. It facilitated collaboration and comparison. It improved communication, standardised research, increased, and improved the evidence base. A unified language also helped mental health activism. Despite major advances and significant progress, the DSM has many critics. Most detractors are free with their criticism, without providing comprehensive solutions to the complex issues facing people with mental illness. Defining mental illness is no simple task. A single definition to partition health, illness and disease has proved to be extraordinarily difficult. The diversity of and heterogeneity within these conditions are major challenges. Typically, patients emphasise distress and suffering, while psychiatrists diagnose and treat diseases. Mental disorders include both disease and illness. Nevertheless, diagnostic criteria for psychiatric disorders did not bridge the classical disease-illness divide between physicians perspectives and patients subjective experience of sickness. In fact, the DSM resulted in language, concepts and frameworks, which contrasted starkly with those held by patients, impeding understanding of the illness experience and diminishing the role of patient narratives. In addition, DSM could not overcome the fact that different etiology and pathology can result in similar clinical presentations, and that a particular cause can produce diverse clinical manifestations. Research and specialist interests also increased manifold the number of diagnostic categories. The difficulty in separating disease from distress is a major challenge. The DSM system emphasised symptom counts to identify psychiatric categories, with little regard for the context (e.g. psychosocial stress, personality, and coping). This strategy improves reliability of diagnosis for non-psychotic conditions associated with psychosocial adversity, but also includes people with normal responses to such difficulties. Psychiatry tends to reify diagnosis, making abstract concepts concrete. Psychiatric practice transmutes clinical syndromes (collection of symptoms) into diseases. The DSM III also suppressed etiological debates about mental disorders and placed them on the back burner. The biomedical model, which undergirds the approach, became dominant, annihilating psychological, behavioural and social conceptualisations. However, the APA argued that reliable diagnoses would result in the recognition of underlying neurobiological substrates and facilitate etiological research; it would lead to the development of new and more effective treatments.

However, the frequent revisions of the DSM, with minor changes often based on limited evidence, also prompted debates on the motivation of the APA. The numerous minor and major disagreements with World Health Organisations International Classification of Diseases (ICD) -10 diagnostic categories supported the argument that most changes were arbitrary as there was no agreement among international experts. The DSM had to contend with many charges including medicalising normal reactions, lowering diagnostic thresholds to create spurious epidemics, creating new categories without evidence, using medication responses to define categories and playing into the hands of the pharmaceutical industry. Defenders of the DSM argue that its primary purpose is to enable psychiatrists to reliably identify individuals who seek clinical attention, and to facilitate communication among clinicians and researchers. The field of psychiatry has to grapple with the current state of knowledge with its inherent limitations. The lack of laboratory diagnosis, poor understanding of genetic basis and psychological vulnerability, and the need to provide categorical diagnosis for phenomena which lie along a spectrum (e.g. depression, anxiety, cognitive impairment and substance misuse) are difficult challenges. The most ardent supporters of the DSM acknowledge its imperfections but argue that it reflects our current understanding and state of the science. They contend that DSM-5 is not an attempt to define normal and that being normal is not the same as not having a DSM5 diagnosis. They argue that having a psychiatric diagnosis is not the same as being insane or crazy, stigmatising labels, which do not apply to the vast majority of people with a DSM diagnosis. They suggest that prescribing medication for any condition in preference to time and labour-intensive psychological interventions is dependent on many factors, including the economic realities of medical practice, and does not necessarily imply medicalising normality. The use of a single set of criteria, useful to psychiatrists working in specialist settings, in other locations (e.g. definitions for legal use and for reimbursement, in primary care and across cultures) is not without problems. There was also pressure from patient and user groups, as any changes to the DSM-IV categories in the new revision would have affected their claims for disability support and health insurance. Consequently, there were demands to enlarge and to reduce the diagnostic net from different quarters. A close examination of the DSM-5 suggests the maintenance of status quo . Psychiatric diagnoses and theories, with their technical language, operational criteria, elaborate classificatory systems and empirical data continue to lack the predictive power required of hard science. Its diagnostic systems and models do not explain many aspects of mental health and illness. Human cognition, emotion and behaviour are complex, interconnected and under a variety of influences (e.g. genetics and biology, psychological, social and cultural forces), whose effects cannot be teased out under controlled experimental conditions. Nevertheless, psychiatric treatments help millions of people lead productive lives. The DSM process and consultation was elaborate and transparent, seeking opinions and evidence from people with diverse backgrounds. Despite its shortcomings, it does reflect the current state of the science. Psychiatry, at this moment in time, has been compared to biology before Darwin and astronomy before Copernicus. Thomas Kuhn in his book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions described three stages: (i) normal science (routine scientific work) within existing paradigms and a dedication to

solving puzzles, (ii) serious anomalies produced by research, which leads to a crisis, and finally (iii) resolution of the crisis by the creation of a new paradigm. Psychiatry today, with its attempt at solving the clinical puzzles and its many anomalies, is awaiting a paradigm shift, which will not only clarify these complex issues but will also provide for a new framework, insight and understanding. Psychiatric research, despite its current attempts at testable conjectures and refutations, is still within a paradigm that seems inadequate for the complexity of the task. Psychiatry awaits its new dawn. (Professor K.S. Jacob is on the faculty of the Christian Medical College, Vellore. The views expressed are personal) Psychiatric diagnoses continue to lack the predictive power required of hard science. A new framework is needed to understand mental health, distress and disease

Preserving history the Malaysian way

Indias ancient built heritage is protected, even if to a limited extent, by the Archaeological Survey of India, State Departments of Archaeology and, in the case of natural and cultural heritage, by government departments and akademis. But who is responsible for living heritage and much that is left unprotected, for one reason or another, by these institutions? Heritage protection is a State subject. In 1997, the Government of India circulated a model Heritage Act that States could adapt and implement. The then Statewide chapter in Tamil Nadu of the Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage (Intach) began working with the government from late 1997 to get an Act based on this model passed. Without going into all that is past, what needs to be recorded is that three actions in this connection have been taken only from 2006 and that too because of High Court interventions. Chennais crumbling heritage In 2006, the Justice E. Padmanabhan Committee listed 467 buildings that should not be hidden from public view by hoardings because of their importance. Then, in 2010, the Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority constituted, on the orders of the Court, a Heritage Conservation Committee (HCC) that later accepted the buildings listed by the Padmanabhan Committee as buildings that needed to be conserved and promised to add more buildings within the Metropolitan limits to the lists. Finally, as a consequence of this, in 2012, a Heritage Act was promised. But what was drawn up has still to be legislated. Meanwhile, much of the citys heritage continues to vanish or crumble. Listed buildings that have been partially destroyed by owners and/or neglected like the Bharat Insurance Building, Gokhale Hall, Kalas Mahal, etc. have had no action taken on them despite courts ordering their conservation or the government making commitments. Much of this is because the HCC, a virtually total government committee, has no teeth to implement anything. We will have to wait and see whether the Act, when it comes into being, will have the powers; those interested in heritage have not been consulted in drawing up the Act. Also awaiting implementation are plans for the citys waterways and other natural heritage, as well as for investigation and documentation of much cultural heritage that has all but vanished. In trying to achieve some of these goals, we might take a leaf out of what has been happening in Penang ever since its capital, George Town, was declared a World Heritage

Site in 2008. To achieve the heritage goals of a World Heritage city is the partnership that has been forged between the quasi-government implementer of the programme, George Town World Heritage Incorporated (GTWHI), the non-governmental organisations (NGO) led by the Penang Heritage Trust (the local equivalent of Intach, Chennai), and government towards ensuring the following: a physical conservation programme that includes both community and private properties a cultural mapping programme that helps document community histories and culture and preserve intangible heritage like endangered trades, traditional performing arts, and ancient culinary practices a shared spaces programme that looks at footpaths, greening and improving public spaces such as parks, waterways and urban markets, and a capacity-building programme that focuses on training workshops on old building materials, techniques, etc. Road map to restoration Equally significant is the fact that to make this possible, government funding has been made available even to individuals for restoration projects after due evaluation by the funding agency and GTWHI. The funding agency, Think City Berhad, was established in 2009 as a part of Khazanah Nasional Berhad, which is rather like our Tamil Nadu Industrial Investment Corporation Limited (TIIC) but with a wider mandate. This role in Tamil Nadu could be played by Tamil Nadu Urban Infrastructure Financial Services Ltd (TNUIFSL). Think Citys George Town Grants Programme (GTGP) had, till the end of 2011, restored or was restoring 97 houses and had nearly 1,500 people attend capacity-building programmes it had funded. It had disbursed nearly RM 13 million 60 per cent on conservation of buildings and 13 per cent on improving public spaces. Grants were given to privately-owned shophouses and homes, many of which have been converted into budget hotels, restaurants, and exhibition centres, as well as to community buildings, like temples, mosques, churches and the headquarters of associations. Several guides, manuals, histories, and niche heritage books have also been published. And several parks and other public spaces improved. Rental values of restored buildings in the Core Zone and the Buffer Zone are now up by 50 to 100 per cent and there are more takers willing to cater to the increasing number of visitors who see Penang as a holiday destination where much of a preserved past is not far from its beaches. The heritage listing ensures that a building in it cannot be pulled down and that the owner must find ways of restoring it for reuse with or without the State-backed support groups. In Singapore Action on heritage conservation began in Singapore even earlier than in Penang and the National Heritage Board, with representation from government departments, NGOs led by the Singapore Heritage Society, and the private sector, spearheads heritage protection. With heritage activities well under way in the city-State for some years now, it is now looking at Heritage Vision 2025.

The vision proposes focus on five areas with the help of government funding, national collection drives, and loans. These areas are: national stewardship through research, capacity-building and the drawing up of strategies and policies heritage museums, institutions and galleries heritage sites which will include national monuments , Unesco World Heritage Sites, listed buildings and markers, heritage private homes and tombs; heritage precincts like Chinatown, Little India, and various heritage kampongs (villages), and heritage practices that will include intangible heritage such as traditional practices, arts and crafts. Start from school But while what I have mentioned must be a part of the Tamil Nadu Heritage Act and what follows from it both by way of planning as well as implementation, there is much more that has to be done in Tamil Nadu. That is, to create a heritage consciousness. And that must begin in school. Heres my wish list: history, geography, civics and environmental studies, focused on the State and India, taught as separate subjects as they once were, must be brought back into the syllabi every school must have age-group heritage clubs which will look at the built, natural and cultural of heritage of the district it is in through lectures, field trips and exhibitions. humanities must be a compulsory subject in undergraduate education the conservation of heritage buildings must be a compulsory subject in architecture and civil engineering syllabi. research into and documentation of lost or vanishing heritage (particularly into building materials, techniques etc.) and of the States historical past must be encouraged in higher educational institutions through liberal funding. The Heritage Act must ensure that apart from an overarching heritage committee (with substantial non-governmental representation from various fields), there must be a heritage committee in every district (again with substantial non-governmental representation) that must mandatorily meet every month and publicise its proceedings. What is needed today is the creation of heritage and civic consciousness in the State even as it legislates a Heritage Act and, hopefully, implements it as soon as possible. (S. Muthiah is a heritage activist in Chennai from 1977. He recently visited Penang and Singapore.) Penang has blazed a trail in creating civic consciousness about heritage conservation

The plate is full

The Fourteenth Finance Commission has recently been constituted under Article 280 of the Constitution, with a former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Y.V. Reddy, as its chairman. The primary task of the FFC is the same as that of its predecessors: to make

recommendations regarding the sharing of Union taxes, the principles governing grantsin-aid to States and transfer of resources to the States. Its period of reference is five years commencing April 1, 2015 and it is expected to submit its report by October 31, 2014. Over the recent past, successive Finance Commissions have been saddled with a large, onerous agenda that has gone well beyond their main tasks of correcting fiscal imbalances between the Centre and the States on the one hand, and among States on the other. The Thirteenth Finance Commission was given the important, but still out of the way, job of preparing a fiscal consolidation road map. The FFC will look into the deficit of the States keeping in view its predecessors report. It has also been asked to suggest measures to raise the tax to GDP ratios of both the Centre and the States, tackle challenges in ecology, environment and climate change. The FFCs other terms of reference include such omnibus items as the need for making public sector enterprises competitive, divestment, and listing and relinquishing ownership of non-priority enterprises. A few other tasks such as calculating the level of subsidies needed and figuring out how to insulate the pricing of public utilities from policy fluctuations can be contentious. Most of these issues do impact public finance but the FFC need not be burdened with some of these lest its primary function is diluted. Recently, after much delay and protracted discussions among State finance ministers at Bhubaneswar, a breakthrough in terms of compensating States for possible revenue losses post the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax appears to have been made. The FFC might still have a say in the final GST format, which however is not expected to roll out until April 2014 at the earliest. Two other core issues need to be addressed by the FFC. The widening inequality in growth and consequently, in per capita income across States have increased inequalities in fiscal capacity. Second, the uniform fiscal deficit targets that States have opted for under their fiscal responsibility legislations have most probably resulted in and the FFC will confirm this compressed development expenditure. It is hoped that the FFC will recommend steps to safeguard the autonomy of States in fiscal matters and specifically suggest ways to overcome the restrictions imposed by stiff fiscal targets without, of course, sacrificing fiscal prudence.

The global village that is not

Way back in the 1990s, when it first became fashionable to talk about the wonders of globalisation, I attended a lecture in Delhi by a British expert who told us how the world was rapidly shrinking and we were all about to become citizens of a global village with a common stake in free trade and travel. Some 20 years on, the world bears little resemblance to that optimistic scenario. No doubt, it has shrunk in the sense of faster communications and travel though even now the breakfastin-Delhi-and-lunch-in-New York boast remains the stuff of airline brochures. But in many other ways, it has actually become more distant. Protectionism has grown leading to bitter rows over trade, environment and immigration: think of the Doha round of talks and the first word that comes to mind is stalled. Likewise, the world climate change negotiations are perpetually deadlocked. And increasingly stringent immigration controls mean that for ordinary people who are not blessed with deep pockets to buy fast-track visas, it is becoming harder to travel beyond their own national borders. The ugly foreigner has become uglier with drawbridges going up everywhere to

keep him out. Gaining control over our borders is the new mantra in western capitals. Those who thought and that includes pretty much all of us that a more connected and interdependent world would necessarily lead to a fundamental shift in our attitude to other fellow denizens of the global village have been proved wrong. Instead, people have become more insular. Anyone who has closely followed the ill-tempered debate in the West on immigration and outsourcing would not have failed to notice a whiff of xenophobia. Even progressive political leaders are speaking the language of protectionism, attacking businesses for hiring foreign workers instead of looking after the local boys. Britains former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown famously launched a campaign to give British jobs to British people offering incentives to companies to train native-born Britons for jobs that were being taken away by immigrants. Across Europe, right-wing parties are enjoying a revival on the back of a new nationalism which sees all outsiders as a threat to European values and way of life. Immigrants are accused of stealing jobs and of being a drain on national resources. In Greece, foreigners have been attacked by thugs of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party allegedly with the covert support of security forces. In the parliamentary elections last June, the party came from nowhere to grab some seven per cent of the votes on an anti-immigrant agenda; and the support for it is reported to be growing. Almost every European country Italy, France, Spain, Austria, Denmark has its own domestic equivalent of Golden Dawn terrorising immigrants and especially targeting Muslims. In France, Socialists may have won the presidency because of widespread disillusionment with Nicolas Sarkozys centre-right government but immigration remains high on the French political agenda. The issue dominated last years presidential campaign and the number of people who voted for Marine Le Pen, candidate for the poisonous far-right National Front, was staggering. She polled more than six million votes (17.9 per cent) in the first round finishing third behind Franois Hollande and Mr. Sarkozy. A few months later, French voters went on to elect her 22-year-old niece Marion MarchalLe Pen as a member of Assemble Nationale, the lower house of parliament, making her the youngest MP in modern French history. The fact that she ran on a shamelessly jingoistic agenda and still won represents a triumph for the French right which will encourage it to spread its tentacles deeper. In an interview with The Guardian , Ms Le Pen warned immigrants that they should know their place in society. Integration is no longer possible. When youre the single French person in the middle of 10 Tunisians, the majority will impose their way of life on the minority, she said. Meanwhile, Britain is embroiled in a diplomatic row with Romania and Bulgaria over its plans to extend restrictions on their citizens working in Britain. Currently, only highlyskilled Romanians and Bulgarians can work in the U.K., but from next January they will have an automatic right to come and settle there as their countries become full members of the European Union. However, the British government sees it as a bad idea to allow a new wave of immigrants to come in at a time when it is desperately trying to reduce immigration. There is much scare-mongering how hundreds of thousands of desperate Bulgarians and Romanians will

land up in Britain putting intolerable pressure on jobs, housing and public services. It is claimed that some 400,000 Poles flocked to Britain when it opened its borders to Poland in 2004. Bizarrely, the government is reportedly planning an unremittingly negative campaign to discourage prospective Bulgarian and Romanian immigrants from coming to the U.K. by portraying it as a country where it always rains, jobs are scarce and public services are bursting at the seams. One minister said that a negative campaign would correct the impression that the streets here are paved with gold. Not surprisingly, the Romanian and Bulgarian governments have hit back and warned that any attempt to restrict the rights of their citizens on the basis of scare stories which have no basis in fact would be in breach of EU rules. They have sought assurances from the British government that there would be no dilution of their citizens rights. These rights come from European citizenship status. Once you are in a space, you cannot have limited rights. If you start limiting health, why not limit other public services? That will affect the freedom of movement of people in the EU space, said Cristian David, the Minister for Romanians Abroad. Ordinary Bulgarians and Romanians have accused Britain of racism. My Romanian cleaner, Maria Olteanu, says she feels humiliated by the way some people react when she tells them that she is from Romania. They think all Romanians are gypsies and that we are all here to have a free meal. We work hard and like everyone else, we pay taxes, she says. Maria is a trained car mechanic but under current rules, she doesnt qualify for a job permit. She was hoping that she would be able to get one next year, but is now worried that she may have to wait longer if the restrictions are extended. A young Bulgarian woman Ralitsa Behar has apparently made quite a splash after she wrote a long letter on behalf of all Bulgarians protesting against the untrue and somewhat insulting remarks about her country. She invited Britains Bulgaria-baiters to visit her country as a guest of me and my family, so that we can explain to you how much our country has changed over the past 20 years. There have been anti-U.K. protests in Bucharest and Sofia with calls for boycott of British products. In Sofia, hundreds of activists of Bulgarias ultra-right Ataka group dressed in military uniform laid a siege to the British embassy demanding an apology from London. They threatened to retaliate against British interests if the U.K. went ahead with its plans. British people coming to buy property in Bulgaria should be given a hostile reception. Russians should be given visa exemption for Bulgaria but, in turn, Sofia should require visa applications from British people, demanded its leader Volen Siderov. Analysts have warned of a year of heated political exchange ahead with the issue likely to go right up to the European Commission if Britain doesnt move quickly to defuse the row. Britain is also involved in a running battle with non-European countries, including India, over its new stringent visa regime for workers and students from outside the EU. The controversy is too well known to bear repetition but it is yet another illustration of the chasm between the idea of a happy-clappy global village and the reality on the ground.

Forget Europe, things are not exactly rosy in our own backyard with India and Pakistan engaged in their little visa wars. Perhaps not many know that if a British-Pakistani with a dual citizenship applies for an Indian visa, the Indian authorities recognise only his Pakistani passport leading to lengthy inquiries and delays that a British citizen does not have to endure. India, of course, doesnt grant dual citizenship so Pakistan is denied the pleasure of returning the compliment. But now that we have OCI (overseas citizenship of India), I think Ill apply for a Pakistani visa just for the heck of it to see how it goes. With even progressive leaders talking about protectionism and anti-immigration, and right-wing parties enjoying a revival, the world has actually become more parochial

Moving beyond defence

Freshly confident from an effective intervention in Mali, President Francois Hollande arrived in India liberated from the shadow of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, a favourite in New Delhi and with Indias business leaders, but ready to build on his legacy. The two countries have established strong diplomatic, political and strategic ties over the years, and the Hollande visit reaffirmed that both are eager to take this engagement to a new level. That keenness was already evident in Indias backing to the French decision in January to send troops to oust Islamist rebels who had taken over parts of Mali, which New Delhi viewed as an effort against a terrorist takeover of that country. As part of the Support and FollowUp Group for Mali, New Delhi has made a $1million pledge for building the countrys army, with the promise of $100 million more later. These steps complement both Indias burgeoning interest in Africa, particularly in the uranium and oil-rich Francophone countries of West Africa, as well as Frances plans to secure the region from Islamist militancy and splinter groups of the al Qaeda as it safeguards its own interests in those countries. It is no coincidence, then, that India and France have been moving towards greater naval co-operation, an important aspect of that being combating sea piracy. In general, defence ties have gained momentum in recent years, with France assiduously trying to combat the impression that it sees India just as a market for its hardware. The Scorpene project, under which the manufacture of the submarine has been sub-contracted to India, and Dassaults Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force, include significant transfers of technology. The $11 billion aircraft deal is still being negotiated and the French are eager to see it concluded soon, as expressed in the joint statement during the visit. The traditional good relations between the two countries have been driven by the need to build a robust multilateralism. France supports Indias candidature for a permanent seat in an expanded Security Council. It was the first country to sign a civilian nuclear deal with India, and supports New Delhis pursuit of membership in the four WMD-related multilateral export groups. Next week will see the launch of SARAL, a satellite to study oceans and seas, a product of long-standing scientific collaboration between the two countries. With so much going for bilateral ties, it seems odd that economic ties lag below potential. Two-way trade and investment are yet to touch the 12 bn target set in 2008. An annual dialogue on economic and financial issues that the two sides agreed to during President Hollandes visit will hopefully help.

The health of nations

The United Nations has been drawing attention in recent years to the growing burden of non-communicable diseases, which have been adding to morbidity and premature deaths in most countries. In a declaration issued at a high-level meeting in 2011, the U.N. argued that low and middle income countries should actively pursue public health policies that will reduce the incidence of NCDs arising from diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, and a high body mass index. One of the countries that is at the epicentre of these health concerns is India, due mainly to weak public health policies and changing lifestyles. As The Lancet points out in recent commentary, much of the burden of non-communicable diseases is linked to the consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink (which are energy dense but nutrient poor). The public health community now unanimously accepts the link between these and a higher burden of NCDs. Neglect of chronic diseases by India has, according to the World Health Organisation, cost the country $9 billion in 2005 due to premature deaths caused by heart disease, stroke and diabetes. Over a 10-year period, the losses are projected to rise to a colossal aggregate of $237 billion. While tobacco and alcohol are receiving close scrutiny as key factors influencing disease burdens, including cancer, the role of ultra-processed packaged food is not getting the attention it deserves. The makers of all forms of packaged food see India as a gigantic emerging market and source of profit growth. Moreover, advanced markets are saturated. It is here that regulation of unhealthy food holds the key. The primary goal should be to use taxation, labelling and awareness creation to make high-energy, low nutrition foods unattractive to the consumer. There is a deplorable trend among food manufacturers to push less harmful packaged food as being actually healthy. This travesty must be reversed through determined policy intervention, and consumption of wholesome, fresh meals high in vegetable and fruit content must be encouraged. It is relevant to point out here that the biscuit industry has been lobbying in India to displace fresh-cooked food in the school noon meal programme, with its own packaged products, drawing sharp criticism from nutritionists and development experts. Packaged meals high in calories, sugar and salt are no substitute for fresh food and actually cause harm. They can only add to the risk of death by cardiovascular disease, estimated to be about five million by 2020. By contrast, a dramatic decline in death due to infectious diseases is projected. The agenda for social and political action is clear.

How Ethiopians are being pushed off their land

It is not a land-grab, it is a life-grab. It is daylight robbery. But if we protest, if we speak the truth, we could end up in jail or worse. Obang Metho was referring to the leasing of land to foreign companies in Ethiopia, spreading over nearly four million hectares. Nyikaw Ochalla joined in: This is happening in the lands I grew up in, and it is my relatives and childhood friends who are being jailed, beaten up, and driven out; my childhood memories are being violated. Metho of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia, and Ochalla of the Anuak Survival Organisation were speaking at the Indian-Ethiopian Seminar on Land Investments organised on February 5-6, 2013 in New Delhi. The seminar was put together by Indian civil society groups Indian Social Action Forum (Insaf), Popular Education and Action Centre (Peace), and Kalpavriksh, the research institution Council for Social Development, and the U.S.-based research group Oakland Institute.

The stories narrated by Obang and Ochalla were harrowing. The lands being leased by the Ethiopian government to companies from India, China, Malaysia, and other countries, were claimed by it to be empty. In actual fact these are areas occupied or used by pastoral and small farming communities, as also grasslands and forests with significant wildlife. Decisions are being taken in the countrys capital to give up these lands ostensibly to help the country produce food and generate revenues; the underlying message is that either there is no one there to do the job, or that local communities are simply not up to the mark. Indian companies are among the biggest players in the land deals, with investments of over $5 billion, and leases over 6,00,000 hectares. Karuturi Global, a Bangalore-based agroproduce company has alone received 3,00,000 hectares. Claims by these companies and by the Ethiopian government that the deals are legal and entail no human rights violations, have been shown as false in a series of on-ground investigations. The Oakland Institute has meticulously documented the nexus of corporations, politicians, investors, and officials that has made the land-grab possible. It notes that there is no public consultation with local communities (much less their consent), many of whom find out that their pastures or fields have been sold off only when bulldozers arrive. Any form of resistance or even questioning is met with imprisonment, beating up, and even killing. Both private security companies and the Ethiopian governments own forces are used to protect the investors. And there is a total lack of environmental and social impact assessments in these deals. It is also stated sometimes that what Indian companies are doing abroad, is not the responsibility of the government. But this ignores the various ways in which the Indian government facilitates and supports such deals, not only through diplomatic channels but also financially (even if indirectly). For instance the Indian Export-Import Bank has pledged $640 million of credit over five years for Ethiopias sugar industry, and the fact that Indian companies are getting the biggest deals for sugarcane plantations cannot be unconnected. Obang and Ochalla were careful to clarify that they were not against Indias people, who they realised could not be supporting such land-grab; however, for the affected communities, it is Indians who are doing this to us. It is therefore important for groups here to question the intentions and actions of Indian companies and the Indian government agencies supporting them. Does their behaviour in Ethiopia meet the laws or guidelines under which Indian companies act within their own country? Does it meet international standards of human rights and environmental sustainability that India is a signatory to? Over the next couple of years, the Ethiopian government plans to forcibly move 1.5 million people off their homelands and concentrate them into a few settlements in a process called villagisation. It claims that this will enable it to provide efficient and good quality services like drinking water, sanitation, schools, and clinics, which is not possible in the case of todays scattered, small settlements. But Obang and Ochalla point out that all the relocation is taking place from lands targeted by investor companies, and that even where communities are saying they would much rather stay where they are with whatever amenities they have, they are being forcibly moved out. The claim that such investments are a win-win deal for the Ethiopian people and Indian companies is also questionable. Much of the production (sugarcane, cotton, jatropha, etc) is meant for export, and local foodgrains which are the staple diet are not being grown. Very little local employment is created; there is no requirement by the Ethiopian government

that companies have to hire locally. Nor is there any contractual clause by which the money generated is to remain within the Ethiopian economy. A handful of businessmen and politicians are the prime beneficiaries. Obang and Ochalla were at pains to state that part of the blame for this sell-out is located within the countrys own history, in which sometimes adverse relations between different tribes have become entrenched in the political system. The countrys ruling elite are from a tiny minority belonging to one ethnic group, who can ignore the sufferings of other groups affected by land-grab. In this sense, it is the Ethiopian people themselves who have to resolve the problem. But there is also an important role for Indias people, especially in highlighting the role of their own companies and government, and facilitating greater awareness of what is taking place in the name of Ethiopias development. What is happening in Ethiopia (and other African countries) is an outcome of Indias own aggressive push towards globalised economic growth. The growth fetish has led to situations of both internal and external colonisation, in which farms, waterbodies, forests, grasslands and other natural resources are all up for grabs. It was an ironical coincidence that on the very days the consultations on Indian land-grab in Ethiopia were taking place in New Delhi, police action was under way to forcibly evict villagers in Odisha to make way for the Korean multinational Posco. Representatives of movements from Jharkhand, Karnataka and elsewhere told Obang and Ochalla that they were facing similar repression while resisting forcible takeover by the government or by corporations. The currently dominant model of development is pushing such violence across the globe, wherever dominant nation-states and giant corporations are eyeing land and resources. In such a situation, people in India who care for human rights, ecological sustainability, and basic justice, have to raise fundamental critiques of development and centralised governance, and work towards radical alternatives that secure the rights of all people to food, water, shelter, energy, learning, health and livelihoods. Such alternatives are already demonstrated to be feasible at thousands of sites across the world, but it requires a mindset change for both the Ethiopian and Indian governments to facilitate the empowerment of local communities to adopt them, rather than paving the way for corporate takeover. Neither the founders of India nor of Ethiopia would have dreamt of a future in which development takes place at gunpoint. (Ashish Kothari is with Kalpavriksh, Pune.) Indian companies are among the biggest land holders in the African country through deals concluded in dubious circumstances

Striving for dialogue in Syria

The February 12 capture of an airfield near Aleppo by a Syrian rebel group is the first in which the insurgents have seized usable warplanes; it also marks a change in the rebels approach, from battles in cities including Damascus to attacks on military bases. A month earlier, rebels had taken the Taftanaz airfield in northern Syria. In response, government forces have launched air attacks on al-Jarrah, as they have done after previous rebel captures of airfields. Captured warplanes will strengthen the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) forces, because President Bashar al-Assads troops have so far been able to repulse

ground-based rebel attacks by using their vast air power; it is not clear, however, if those pilots who have defected can fly the rebel-held machines. Meanwhile the civil war rages on, and the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Navanethem Pillay has given the U.N. Security Council a sharply increased estimate of the death toll, putting it at 70,000 since the civil war started in March 2011. Political efforts continue, and on February 8, U.N. special envoy Lakhdar Brahimis deputy Mokhtar Lamani met the rebel Revolutionary Military Council near Damascus, and also talked with other civilian leaders. In addition, the SNCs Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib has offered to meet government officials if the regime releases some 16,000 political prisoners and renews passports held by Syrians abroad. The odds against a settlement, however, are lengthening on both sides. Mr. Khatibs move has angered other SNC members, not least because SNC president George Sabra himself narrowly escaped an assassination attempt near the Turkish border on February 11. The Coalition remains severely divided, and U.S. President Barack Obama has vetoed arming rebel forces. Furthermore, the minister for national reconciliation Ali Haidar first responded to Mr. Khatib by offering talks in another country, but then insisted that the opposition participate in a government dialogue initiative which has already started in Damascus; yet the former Syrian foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi, who defected ten weeks ago, says the violence and polarisation have left no place for moderation and diplomacy. At one level, the all-round intransigence now means the prospects for a peaceful settlement seem more difficult than ever. But the pursuit of military means by Damascus and its opponents the latter backed by powerful regional powers is hardly the answer. The Geneva plan, which builds on the earlier efforts of Kofi Annan, must be pursued seriously. The Russians back it and the U.S. too is on board. But somebody has to push the Syrian opposition to come on board.

An unreasonable restriction
On February 6, 2013, Sanjay Chaudhary was arrested under section 66A of the Information Technology (IT) Act for posting objectionable comments and caricatures of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Union Minister Kapil Sibal and Samajwadi Party president Mulayam Singh Yadav on his Facebook wall. This arrest follows numerous others over the past few months for political speech through social media: Manoj Oswal for having caused inconvenience to relatives of Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar for allegations made on his website; Jadavpur University Professor Ambikesh Mahapatra for a political cartoon about West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee; businessman Ravi Srinivasan in Puducherry for an allegedly defamatory tweet against the son of Union Finance Minister P. Chidambaram; two Air India employees, who were jailed for 12 days for allegedly defamatory remarks on Facebook and Orkut against a trade union leader and a politician; Aseem Trivedi, accused of violation of the IT Act for drawing cartoons lampooning Parliament and the Constitution to depict its ineffectiveness. However, the incident that rocked the nation was the arrest last November of two young women, Shaheen Dadha and her friend Renu Srinivasan, for a comment posted on Facebook that questioned the shutdown of Mumbai following the demise of Shiv Sena Supremo Bal Thackeray. The girls were arrested under Section 66A(a) of the IT Act for allegedly sending a grossly offensive and menacing message through a communication device.

Constitutionality of Section 66A Several PILs have been filed challenging the constitutionality of Section 66A of the IT Act. In a November 2012 PIL, Shreya Singhal submitted to the Supreme Court that Section 66A curbs freedom of speech and expression and violates Articles 14, 19 and 21 of the Constitution. The petition further contends that the expressions used in the Section are vague and ambiguous and that 66A is subject to wanton abuse in view of the subjective powers conferred on the police to interpret the law. In reply to the Shreya Singhal petition, the Union government defended the constitutionality of Section 66A relying first on the Advisory on Implementation of Section 66A of the Information Technology Act 2000 issued by the Department of Electronics and Information Technology on January 9, 2013 to the Chief Secretaries and the Director General of Police of all States/UTs. The advisory asks State governments not to allow the police to make arrests under Section 66A of the IT Act without prior approval from an officer not below the rank of Inspector General of Police in the metropolitan cities or Deputy Commissioner of Police or Superintendent of Police at the district level. However, this advisory is clearly not sufficient as political interference in law enforcement is well known and the arrests, as shown above, have not abated. The Centre has further sought to justify the legality of Section 66A, introduced in the 2009 amendments to the IT Act, on the ground that it has been taken from Section 127 of the U.K. Communications Act, 2003. In fact, Section 66A is very different from Section 127 which, moreover, has been read down by the House of Lords on the grounds that Parliament could not have intended to criminalise statements that one person may reasonably find to be polite and acceptable and another may decide to be grossly offensive. Section 66A(a) refers to the sending of any information through a communication service that is grossly offensive or has menacing character. In the U.K., Section 127(1)(a) makes the sending of matter that is grossly offensive or of an indecent, obscene or menacing character an offence. The drafters of the 2009 amendments to the IT Act in India presumably omitted the words indecent, obscene as Section 67 of the IT Act makes the publishing or transmittal of obscene material in electrical form an offence. The meaning of the term grossly offensive in both Section 66A(a) and Section 127(1)(a) is crucial and remains yet undefined in India. In a 2006 judgment in Director of Public Prosecutions v. Collins , arising out of racist references in messages left by a constituent on the answering machine of a British MP, the House of Lords laid down a seminal test for determining whether a message is grossly offensive. It agreed with the formulation by the Queen's Bench Divisional Court that, in determining whether a message is grossly offensive the Justices must apply the standards of an open and just multi-racial society, and that the words must be judged taking account of their context and all relevant circumstances. The House of Lords added that there can be no yardstick of gross offensiveness otherwise than by the application of reasonably enlightened, but not perfectionist, contemporary standards to the particular message sent in its particular context. Most importantly, the House of Lords held that whether a message was grossly offensive did not depend merely on the degree of offence taken by the complainant but on whether it violates the basic standards of an open and just multi-racial society. This is considered a reading down by the House of Lords of Section 127(1) of

the U.K. Communications Act 2003, a hugely controversial legislation in the U.K. for its chilling effect on speech. It is particularly relevant in India where the hurt sentiments of particular groups (or of individuals purporting to represent particular groups) is viewed by the state as sufficient to take criminal action against speech and expression. Section 66A(b) is even more problematic than Section 66A(a) because it makes an offence of sending through a computer resource or communication device any information which he knows to be false, but for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience, danger, obstruction, insult, injury, criminal intimidation, enmity, hatred or ill will, persistently by making use of such computer resource or a communication device. Surely it cannot be a legitimate legislative objective to restrict freedom of speech in order to prevent annoyance or inconvenience? Can a democratic society criminalise the causing of annoyance, inconvenience, insult or ill will? Causing insult or ill will or enmity could be a criminal offence if it amounts to defamation. However, insulting someone or causing inconvenience per se cannot surely be a crime in itself either in the real or virtual world. While Section 66A(b) of the Indian IT Act has unbelievably lumped causing annoyance and inconvenience in the same Section as criminal intimidation and made it subject to the same punishment, Section 127(1)(b) of the U.K. Communications Act is limited to the sending of a message that he knows to be false for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety to another. Section 127(1)(b) itself has been copied from the Post Office (Amendment) Act 1935 in the U.K. and it is very surprising that in the Internet age, not only have British lawmakers sought fit to copy from what is clearly outdated legislation, even worse, their Indian counterparts are so neo-colonial in their drafting that they even copied the British mistake of applying 1935 legislation for one-to-one postal communications to social media despite the much greater chilling effect on free speech. Section 127(1)(b) The punishment for the offence in Section 127(1)(b) is a maximum of six months imprisonment or a fine of 5,000 while Section 66A imposes a much more serious punishment of imprisonment up to three years and a fine without limit. Therefore, Section 66A(b) of the IT Act is not the same as Section 127(1)(b) of the U.K. Communications Act, 2003 in terms of scope of the offence or the punishment. Ironically, the Indian government defends Section 66A by saying it has been copied from Section 127 of the U.K. Act, while in the U.K., there are calls for repeal of this Section, already read down by the House of Lords in order to ensure compliance with Article 17 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Instead of defending Section 66A on the grounds that it has been copied from U.K. legislation, the Union Government should take inspiration from the House of Lords view about what is grossly offensive. This is the standard that should have been incorporated in the advisory issued by the Department of Electronics and IT. Section 66A certainly does not engage in the delicate balancing required to pursue the legitimate objective of preventing criminal intimidation and danger through social media without going no further than required in a democratic society to achieve that end. The drafters of Section 66A(b) have equated known criminal offences in the real world with acts such as causing annoyance and inconvenience that can never constitute an offence in the real world and should not be offences in the virtual world. Therefore, the legislative restrictions

on freedom of speech in Section 66A(b) cannot be considered as being necessary to achieve a legitimate objective. Section 66A should not be considered a reasonable restriction within the meaning of Article 19 of the Constitution and must be struck down as an unconstitutional restriction on freedom of speech. If political speech, that is, criticism of politicians and exposure of corruption continues to be punished by arrest instead of being protected, India's precious democracy and free society will be no more. (Aparna Viswanathan is a lawyer and author of Cyber Law: Indian and International Perspectives (Lexis Nexis, Butterworths, Wadhwa 2012)) It is disingenuous for the government to claim its IT law is modelled on British statute when the House of Lords has already read down the U.K.s worst provisions

Mobility and metro rail

Increasing fuel consumption, the resultant pollution and inefficient urban sprawl caused by incessantly expanding private motorised transport are all compelling reasons for prioritising public transport. Investing in public transport is now imperative. In this context, the recently announced Metro Railway Policy by the Ministry of Urban Development encouraging cities with more than two million population to plan and implement high-capacity and high-speed metro rail systems is a welcome directive. Since these large cities would accommodate the bulk of the burgeoning urbanising population in future, planning for their growth and mobility is necessary. The metro rail, which takes on an average about 10 years to plan and fully implement, could play a significant role in shaping their future. The successful Delhi experience has also strengthened the case of metro rail as an important urban transportation option and places such as Kochi and Jaipur have already commenced implementation. However, planners should not make the mistake of treating the metro rail as a panacea for all their urban ills. There are a few caveats and notes of caution they need to consider before taking the plunge. The usefulness of a metro rail project would depend on how well it is integrated with the spatial and functional planning of the city. Cities often tend to crowd development around metro rail corridors to take advantage of the high-capacity system, but this, in the absence of a comprehensive development plan, could result in lopsided urban growth. For instance, Chennai has pushed for intense building activity along the already crowded rail corridors to enhance ridership at least 20,000 people travelling during peak hours in the peak direction to make the metro rail network economically sustainable. This move may increase the number of rail users, but the question is whether it is desirable. Second, many cities with a population of two million have a large number of medium-demand transport corridors, which can be well served only by a bus system with affordable travel fares. Hence, a city cannot limit itself to developing only metro rail, and other transportation modes are equally critical. Even for the metro rail to function well, it needs a good feeder bus network, connecting pedestrian paths and seamless modal transfer. Unfortunately, the Working Group on Urban Transport for the Twelfth Five Year Plan, which has recommended Rs. 1, 30,726 crore for metro rail projects in 19 cities, has only provided Rs. 22,519 crore for bus transport for the entire country. It is important to expand transport options, but without comprehensive development, mobility within cities would not be efficient and convenient.

A model for the rest of India

It comes as no surprise that Tamil Nadu has once again been applauded for its excellent maternal and child-care services by the Common Review Mission of the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM). Suffice it to say that at a time when 99 per cent of global maternal mortality occurs in developing regions of the world, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra have become pockets that have bucked the trend. Even as India has been reducing its maternal mortality ratio defined as the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births the rate of reduction, from 380 in 1993 to 97 during 2007-2009, has been rapid in the case of Tamil Nadu. So much so that Tamil Nadu, along with Kerala (81) and Maharashtra (104), has already achieved the Millennium Development Goal of 109 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2015. Compare this with the national average an MMR of 212 for 20072009, which is more than double the MDG target. The State has been able to accomplish this by taking up a multi-pronged approach. First, it has equipped all health-care settings, starting with the 1,612 primary health-care centres, with trained staff nurses available round the clock and all essentials required for safe deliveries. Second, it has through innovative and women-friendly initiatives ensured that most deliveries take place in health-care settings. According to a recent survey by the University of Delhi, institutional deliveries are as high as 99 per cent in Tamil Nadu. The national average is about 73 per cent. More than the very high percentage of institutional deliveries, what is more significant is the percentage of deliveries taking place in government-run institutions. Nearly 67 per cent of deliveries take place in government institutions, compared to 33 per cent in the private sector. The PHCs alone account for 27 per cent; it was about seven per cent in 2005. In fact, today, PHCs face a demand-side pressure. Compare this with Kerala where the private sector accounts for roughly 60 per cent of deliveries. The primary reason why women in Tamil Nadu are flocking to government facilities is the changed nature of health-care services being provided. As many as 105 PHCs in the State have the facilities to conduct C-sections and store blood, and their main focus is maternal and child heath care. Womenfriendly services like screening and appropriate intervention for gestational diabetes, hypertension and anaemia have had a magnetic effect. But the most critical contributor has been the strong and continued importance accorded to health-care services by whichever political party is in power.

Selecting the next CAG

In May this year, the present Comptroller and Auditor-General will retire on completing 65 years of age. Given the Government of Indias exasperation with him, it seems very probable that for the next CAG, it will look for someone who is likely to be bland and ignorable, and quite possibly someone who will actively weaken the rigours of accountability. That will be a travesty of what the Constitution-makers had in mind. How is that deplorable contingency to be avoided? The answer is that the selection of the CAG must not be the exclusive prerogative of the executive government but must be entrusted to a high-level, broad-based Selection Committee. Such a course is clearly a very obvious one to follow, but it appears that the government does not consider any such change in the selection procedure necessary.

No formal criteria The argument is that the existing system has been working well; that the CAGs, by whichever ruling party chosen, have been able to function independently; and that no change is called for. However, does a system in fact exist? There is no carefully formulated job description, no formally laid down criteria, no clear procedures for a long list and a short list, and no Selection Committee. What then is the system? It is entirely an internal process within the government; no one outside knows what that process is; from the Finance Secretary, Cabinet Secretary and the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, some names emerge and reach the Prime Minister; and a recommendation is sent to the President. Suddenly one morning the newspapers announce that a particular person has been selected as CAG. Parliament and the people of the country have no idea at all as to how the principal instrument of accountability is chosen. Is the system working well? On what grounds can one say so? There have been outstanding, good, and indifferent CAGs. One can hardly infer a functioning system from these results, much less one that is working well. The need for a high-level, broad-based Selection Committee has already been accepted for the selection of the Central Vigilance Commissioner and the National Human Rights Commissioners. On what possible grounds can it be held that such a procedure is not appropriate for the selection of the CAG? It is in fact particularly called for in this case, considering the great and crucial importance of the institution of CAG of India. The point is familiar and need not be laboured, but it may be useful to remind ourselves very briefly that the Constitution-makers chose to include the position in the Constitution; guaranteed his (her) independence by providing protection against removal except by impeachment; and prescribed for the CAG an oath of office that requires the functionary to uphold the Constitution and the laws and not just act in accordance with them. It may also be recalled that Dr. B.R. Ambedkar considered the CAG the most important functionary in the Constitution, even more important than the judiciary. The CAG performs the most crucial function of enforcing the financial accountability of the Executive to Parliament, and through Parliament to the people. It follows that the selection of the enforcer of accountability should not be left to the discretion of those whose accountability he or she has to enforce. What should be the composition of the proposed Selection Committee? Having regard to the multiple dimensions of the position of CAG, the following is a suggested composition: Prime Minister (Chairman); Finance Minister; Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha; Speaker of the Lok Sabha; Chief Justice of India, if the CJI is willing to be included, and if not, a very distinguished legal luminary. For an open system Suggestions that criteria and procedures should be laid down for the selection of the CAG are sometimes questioned on the ground that the Constitution does not say so. That is an absurd objection. The Constitution mandates the post; an appointment has to be made to

that post; an appointment implies a selection; and selection implies criteria and procedure. The appointment cannot be made by draw of lots. In any case, some kind of opaque internal system is apparently being followed at present. The suggestion is merely that it be replaced by a formal, well-formulated, open system. Once we start on the formulation of a system of selection, several questions will arise. A full discussion of those questions will require a separate paper. Without a detailed discussion, this article will merely put down a few categorical, un-argued statements for consideration. (1) What kind of person should the Committee look for? Keeping in mind the kind and range of responsibilities involved, the CAG should clearly have: professional knowledge and expertise in accounts and audit; a willingness to point the finger at irregularity, impropriety, imprudence, inefficiency, waste, and loss of public funds, at whatever level this occurs, but tempered by a scrupulous judiciousness in criticism and comment; the ability to weigh the legal and constitutional aspects of some of the issues that come before him; a capacity for understanding complex technical, contractual commercial, managerial, or economic matters and forming careful judgments, particularly when dealing with large government schemes or appraisals of public enterprises; management abilities for running the vast Department under him; and underlying all these, a passionate concern for rectitude and propriety (fire in the belly), and impeccable and fierce personal integrity, accompanied by much tact and wisdom. It will certainly be very difficult to find a person who combines all those elements; but the selectors must keep that ideal picture before them, and the person selected should meet at least a significant part of the above requirements. (2) The criterion (now prevailing) that the person to be selected should have been a Secretary to the Government of India is irrelevant and should be abandoned. Indeed, having been a Secretary to the Government should perhaps be a disqualification because of the possibility of a conflict of interests. (3) The fact that this is a constitutional position should not be allowed to obscure the fact that it is also a specialised, professional one that cannot easily be filled by a generalist. It is impossible to imagine a non-IFS officer being appointed as Foreign Secretary, or a nonrailwayman as Chairman, Railway Board; appointing a generalist administrator as CAG should be equally unthinkable except in a rare case. The constitutional status of the position does not alter that logic. (4) The retiring or recently retired Deputy CAGs in the IAAS should be the first source; it is only if an exceptionally able officer is not available from that source that other sources should be considered, i.e., the IAS and Central Services other than the IAAS; and failing all these, non-government sources. The reasons for that order of preference are not gone into here. It must, however, be mentioned that the implicit general assumption that the next CAG, like the last six CAGs, must be an IAS officer, causes serious harm to departmental morale. Consider the high

standing of the Indian Audit Department in the international community of Supreme Audit Institutions. Consider also the present CAGs frequent praise high praise of the quality of the personnel of the Department. If such good work can be done by the Department, is it credible that in the last six selections of the CAG, the choice could never once fall on an IAAS officer? The sad fact is that the post of CAG has become virtually a cadre post for the IAS, and there seems to be a systematic exclusion of the IAAS. This is indefensible on any ground and needs to be remedied. This implies no reflection on any individual CAG. In particular, this writer holds the present CAG in the highest regard, and believes that he has been an outstanding incumbent of that high constitutional office. The above suggestions are not offered in a dogmatic spirit. What is important is that the issues raised in this article should be pondered by all those who are concerned about the effective functioning of this venerable institution, even if that pondering leads to conclusions different from those stated here. (Ramaswamy R. Iyer is a former IAAS officer ) Instead of the present opaque system, a high-level, broad-based Committee should be formed to choose the countrys most important constitutional functionary

A swim test in the Indian Ocean

The situation in the Maldives today former President Mohamed Nasheed is holed up inside the Indian High Commission seeking protection from what he believes are trumped up charges against him by a kangaroo court is quite different from what happened in 1950 in Nepal, but it is worthwhile recalling the similarities. All through the 1940s, tension between King Tribhuvan of Nepal and his Prime Minister, Mohan Shamsher Jang Bahadur Rana, had escalated because the Rana wanted Nepals Gurkha troops to join the Second World War on the side of Britain. After an unsuccessful attempt at dislodging the Rana regime, Tribhuvan sought refuge in India House in Kathmandu in November 1950. Jawaharlal Nehru ordered that Tribhuvan, his son, Mahendra and eldest grandson, Birendra be given protection under the Indian flag. After a week, they were flown into exile in New Delhi and put up at Hyderabad House. Huge anti-Rana demonstrations broke out in Nepal, forcing Mohan Shamsher, the last Rana Prime Minister, to negotiate with Tribhuvan. The victorious King returned home after two months. So when Mohamed Nasheed, the first democratically elected President of the Maldives, walked into the Indian High Commission a week ago, the alarm bell rang out in Delhi even though this was no repeat of the Nepal experience. The Indian government has made it clear to the Maldivian government of Mohamed Waheed that Nasheed will stay inside the High Commission premises as long as he likes. Thats the first difference not only from 1950, but also from 2012, when Delhi declared that the transfer of power from Nasheed to Waheed Nasheed called it a coup was legitimate. One year later, Delhi is being forced to reckon with the series of miscalculations it made last February. Clearly, Indias poor judgment calls and tearing hurry to recognise Waheed were the combined outcome of misreporting from the ground by its man in Male, as well as the fear that a power vacuum would have the Chinese rushing into the Maldives. The threat of

Islamist resurgence was always at hand. But Waheed turned out to be the man who bit the hand that fed it. Not only did he throw out GMR, the Indian infrastructure company that had already spent half of the $500 million that would cost to build a spanking new airport in Male, the Maldivian capital. It has now come to light that Waheed has also allowed Chinese tour operators to buy into 18 resorts in the Maldivian atoll, which has given India the jitters. One year later, Indias understanding of the troubles in the Maldivian paradise seems to have been significantly transformed. There is some acceptance that Waheed is really the mukhauta or mask of former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who is running the show from behind the scenes. So Nasheed was invited to an official visit to Delhi in early February, when he met National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon. Union External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid has been in touch with him and all the other actors in the Maldives. India showed some spine when it told Waheed that Nasheed should be allowed to participate in the elections on September 7, implying that he shouldnt be arrested when he leaves the high commission. So far, though, both Waheed and Gayoom arent biting. A second arrest warrant has been issued for Nasheed, with the court also asking what hes doing inside the Indian High Commission. Meanwhile, efforts to impress upon Gayoom that India means business havent made much headway; it seems the ex-President just laughed it off. Officials in Delhi say they are waiting and watching, although its not clear for how long they can afford to do that. Certainly, the Indian government is not in favour of being seen to be exercising power in favour of the democratically elected Nasheed unlike 1971, when it helped in the creation of Bangladesh, or in 1987 when it signed an accord to push for greater rights for the Sri Lankan Tamils, or even in 1988, when it intervened to prevent a coup against the same Gayoom and is hoping that events will play themselves out. There is some talk of imposing economic sanctions on the Maldives, especially since the islands have a months supply left of food and other commodities but that talk is contextualised in the long term. The most immediate aspiration is to hope that the Maldivian Parliament will soon decide whether it can vote, by secret ballot, so that some of Waheeds allies will, perhaps, turn against him. Clearly, the governments fear and nervousness stem from the criticism the rest of the region has often heaped upon it, as being a Big Brother. But the fact remains that much greater engagement with South Asia must become the byword for Indias foreign policy. India must constantly push the envelope in favour of each democratic player in every country in the region, whether it is Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan or the Maldives. The problem is Delhi still seems unaware of the fundamental restructuring taking place in the Maldives, or if it is, it doesnt seem to know how to leverage it. At the parliamentary oversight committee in Male in January, then head of military intelligence Brig. Gen. Ahmed Nilam described Nasheeds ouster last year as a coup 10 days later, he was relieved of his duties. The same fate befell the chief of police intelligence, Mohamed Hameed, after he criticised Waheed. How can India arrest the deteriorating situation in the Maldives? Elections are in September, until which Nasheed certainly cant stay inside its high commission premises. One way

would be to have Waheed defer the court order against Nasheed until elections are held let all Maldivians decide whether Nasheed deserves to be thrown into jail or not. Another would be to persuade Waheed to step down, thereby paving the way for a transitional government headed by the Speaker who also oversees a free and fair election. The current crisis in the Maldives is also about the way India chooses to assert its own interest as well as the interest of the region. This is another test for a country who wants to be its leader. (Jyoti Malhotra is a Delhi-based journalist.) The mess in the Maldives shows that Indian foreign policy needs to focus more on improving engagement with South Asia

Getting ahead of the sum of all fears While India focuses on Chinas strategic modernisation programmes, Pakistan competes with India. This triangular nuclear interaction is too complex for traditional arms control and too dynamic for laissez-faire policies. Beijing and New Delhi have adopted a relatively relaxed approach to implementing the requirements for nuclear deterrence. In both countries, national security is equated primarily with strong economies and domestic cohesion. Chinese and Indian leaders value nuclear weapons primarily as expressions of national will and power, rather than as military instruments. In Pakistan, the situation is different. Economic growth is hobbled and the country is plagued by bloodletting. Decisions about nuclear requirements are made by a few individuals with military backgrounds who view these weapons as having both political and military value. The face-off There is rough parity between India and Pakistan in nuclear weapon-related capabilities. By some indicators, India is ahead; in others, Pakistan leads. Both arsenals appear to have doubled in size over the past decade. Pakistan is the hare in this competition, while India is the tortoise. The tortoise will win this race because of its significantly larger industrial capacity and economy. But the hare continues to run fast, in part because nuclear weapons are a sign of strength amidst growing weaknesses. Rawalpindis nuclear requirements were set high initially, and appear to have grown higher still after the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement. Growing disparity in conventional military capabilities on the subcontinent has also fuelled Pakistans nuclear programmes. Initially, Pakistani authorities embraced a doctrine of minimal, credible deterrence. Presently, Rawalpindis nuclear posture emphasises credibility rather than minimalism. Current and prospective production rates in Pakistan are sized to support ambitious nuclear targeting objectives that are set with minimal civilian oversight. At the low end of these requirements, Rawalpindi can warn New Delhi and the international community of the necessity to prevent or to end hostilities promptly. One means to do so is by moving shortrange, nuclear-capable missiles toward lines of military confrontation. It is not yet clear what Pakistans warhead requirements are for short-range systems. At the high end of the targeting spectrum, Rawalpindi appears intent to deny India victory and to destroy it as a functioning society in the event of a complete breakdown in deterrence. Pivot for change

Altering Pakistans near-term, nuclear growth trajectory will be difficult. Nuclear weapons are widely perceived as the nations Crown jewels. Most Pakistanis who bemoan the problems they face in every day life feel pride in their countrys accomplishments related to nuclear weapons. They begrudge governmental corruption and incompetence, but not money spent on the Bomb. At the national level, nuclear weapons have been imbued with great powers, including the power to keep India at bay and to lift Pakistan onto the worlds stage. What might change Rawalpindis calculation that more nuclear weapons equates to more security? One way is for New Delhi to take dramatic steps to improve relations with its neighbour and to take away the enemy image, similar to what Mikhail Gorbachev did to the United States after becoming leader of the Soviet Union. New leaders can be capable of surprising shifts in long-standing nuclear and national security policies, as exemplified by Gorbachev, Ronald Reagan, and Deng Xiaoping. Game-changing leaders are, however, a rare breed for Pakistan and elsewhere. Besides, there seems to be little appetite within India for bold steps that have the potential to alter civil-military relations in Pakistan and to reinforce the Pakistan Armys obvious need to focus on internal security threats. Another potential game-changer is severe perturbations in Pakistans economy. An even more accelerated decline in Pakistans economic fortunes might affect budgetary choices. Game-changing events could, however, have negative as well as positive effects. Growing economic travails within Pakistan are likely to create even more domestic instability. The safest route to reduce nuclear dangers on the subcontinent is through concerted, persistent, top-down efforts to improve relations between Pakistan and India. Success in this pursuit is dependent on the recognition by Pakistans military leaders that their current path does not strengthen or stabilise deterrence, and that economic growth requires more normal economic ties with India. At present, there is evidence of Rawalpindis recognition of the second proposition, but not the first. The leaders of major political parties in Pakistan have vocalised their interest in improving relations with India not just with respect to trade but follow-up steps are moving slowly in the run-up to national elections. Progress can be stopped short by another masscasualty attack on Indian soil designed to disrupt improved ties. Deterrence built on very weak economic foundations is inherently unstable, which is reason enough for India to pursue sustained and accelerated trade and investment opportunities with Pakistan. These methods, which have dampened tensions between China and Taiwan, could also serve a similar purpose on the subcontinent. (Michael Krepon is co-founder of the Stimson Center in Washington.) The safest way to reduce the subcontinents nuclear dangers is through consistent efforts to improve relations between India and Pakistan, particularly economic ties

Understanding the disconnect

The belief that financial markets, especially the stock markets, mirror the real economy has very rarely been supported by empirical evidence in India. Even so, influential sections, including policymakers, tend to view the markets as a barometer for testing or gauging

the efficacy of specific policies. The issue is highly topical, with the Union budget due for presentation next week. Budgets have become the most important economic statements of the government, with recent ones evolving far beyond their traditional roles of being mere reports on government finances. Over the years, finance ministers have used the budget process to make important economic announcements, including reform measures, often even those that have tenuous connection with government finances of the day. In the run up to the Union budget, the behaviour of the stock markets is closely watched for what investors expect from the government. It is much less certain as to whether those expectations are realistic, given the political and economic constraints that the Finance Minister has. At the present juncture there is a significant disconnect between the stock markets and economic fundamentals. Major equity indices have risen by 11.5 per cent since August, taking the benchmark stock indices to near record levels. At the same time, most economic indicators are down. Food production for the year is expected to be lower. Consumer price inflation remains in double digits. Economic growth during the year is projected to be at around 5 per cent. Not for the first time, the Indian economy is beset by the phenomenon of economic fundamentals and sentiment moving in different directions. That should, in the normal course, be a good enough reason to pay less attention to stock market concerns. After all, even if the disconnect were to be less pronounced than now, the fact that equity investors are but a small part of those who invest in financial savings instruments should point to the fallacy of exaggerating the markets role in influencing policies. Yet, given the worsening current account deficit and the large dependence on short-term flows from foreign institutional investors, the government is forced to take note of market sentiment. In 2012, foreign inflows amounted to $25 billion and continue to be the principal factor behind the high stock indices. The economys long-term interests are better served by encouraging sustainable and more stable flows, such as from foreign direct investors and higher exports. It is unfortunate that in the recent past, the government has chosen expediency over considered economic policy making in attracting these short-term flows even at the risk of weakening macroeconomic stability.

Suffering and sharing

The notification of the final award of the Cauvery Water Disputes Tribunal is the most important step in providing the legal and technical framework for sharing of the waters among the river basin States, particularly Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. That it took six long, distressful years after the announcement of the award cannot be easily forgotten, but the effort now must be to look ahead. The immediate order of business has to be to set up the Cauvery Management Board, an inter-State forum as envisaged by the Tribunal for securing compliance and implementation of its final orders, and a Cauvery Water Regulation Committee to act in accordance with the directions of the Board. Were it not for the direction of the Supreme Court, the notification might not have been done even now, and Karnataka and Tamil Nadu would have continued to engage in litigation year after year. But along with the two States and the Centre, the apex court too should take some of the responsibility for the inexcusable delay in the notification. By admitting Special Leave Petitions by the States against the final award overlooking the bar on the jurisdiction of the courts included in the Inter-States Water Disputes Act, the Supreme Court paved the way for a seemingly neverending cycle of pleas.

Of course, the notification will not automatically end all disputes. In distress years, farmers on both sides will suffer, but at least now there is a readily available mechanism to ensure equitable sharing of the waters. The tribunal had noted that distress caused by diminution of water flows will be shared by the States after the distress conditions and their extent is determined by the [Cauvery Management] Board keeping in view the allotted water shares. Fixing of the monthly flows to Tamil Nadu on a pro rata basis is an oft-discussed, but neverimplemented, equitable solution. The final award 192 tmc ft of water to reach Tamil Nadu at the inter-State border point of Biligundlu is kinder to Karnataka than the interim award of 1991, which required the State to ensure 205 tmc ft at Mettur dam, well within Tamil Nadu. All the States party to this long-standing dispute should realise that there is no escape from distress-sharing during bad monsoon years, and that the carefully thought-out award of the tribunal is the closest to a scientifically-determined apportioning of the waters of the Cauvery. As is evident from the statements of Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, Tamil Nadu is happy with the final award and the notification. Karnataka too should realise its responsibilities as an upper riparian and not seek to start another round of litigation over the much-delayed notification.

Winning the battle but losing the war

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960, took 10 years to negotiate, primarily because of the thorny issue of balancing, on the one hand, the reasonable expectation by India that it could use the hydroelectric potential of Pakistans rivers (the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus) before these rivers entered Pakistan and, on the other, the reasonable expectation by Pakistan that this would neither decrease the flow to Pakistan nor change the timing of the flow. This was dealt with in the IWT essentially by hardwiring into the Treaty limitations on the amount of manipulable (or live) storage which India could develop in its projects. Stress point As has often been recounted, the IWT worked well for decades, even through periods when India and Pakistan were at war. But the truth of the matter is that the Treaty was not really under stress until India started (quite appropriately, in my view) building hydropower plants across the Himalayas, and, in particular, on its side of the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir. The first case, where the Indian and Pakistani Indus Water Commissioners were unable to resolve their differences, was the one of the Baglihar hydropower project on the Chenab. At Pakistans request, the World Bank appointed a Neutral Expert to evaluate the claims. After two years of work the Neutral Expert returned his verdict. The essence of the verdict was that the Treaty allowed for new knowledge to be taken into account, that new knowledge on sediment management meant that modern dams should be able to flush sediments through low-level gates and that this element of the design of the Baglihar dam was therefore acceptable. What the Neutral Expert completely ignored was that this change essentially meant eliminating the limit live storage provision of the IWT, a provision that was at the very heart of Pakistans acceptance of the Treaty in the first place. Since there are a large number of hydroprojects on the drawing board in Indian-held Kashmir, and since the cumulative storage on the Chenab alone has been estimated to be about 40 days, this essentially left Pakistan with no protection against unintentional or intentional harm from Indian manipulation of the live storage they were now allowed to build.

Which brings us to the Kishenganga case. The far-sighted Indian and Pakistani engineers who drew up the IWT had foreseen the Kishenganga case quite specifically and had dedicated a whole section to this specific case. Annexure D para 15 states where a Plant is located on a tributary of the Jhelum on which Pakistan has any agricultural use or hydroelectric use, the water released below the plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another tributary but only to the extent that the then existing agricultural use or hydroelectric use by Pakistan on the former tributary would not be adversely affected. While lawyers might, la Bill Clinton, ponder the meaning of has, it is clear to most that since there was no then existing use by Pakistan, India was well within its rights to build Kishenganga. In my opinion Pakistan should never have taken this case to the International Court of Arbitration (ICA), because there was, in my view, no chance that they would win the case. Another Pakistani loss after Baglihar would have several consequences, all negative for Pakistan. First, they would have wasted a lot of resources paying for high-priced lawyers. Second, they could be spending their scarce human resources on more productive areas, like improving the management of water in Pakistan. And third, as the press headlines in both India and Pakistan trumpet India wins, again, this would reinforce the Indian claim that victories over both Baglihar and Kishenganga showed that India was playing by the rules while Pakistan just wanted to harass India on these projects. But, as the Christian Brothers told me when I was a boy growing up in South Africa, the Lord works in mysterious ways. In this case there is no doubt that India has won the battle, but I think that it has, in fact, lost a far more important war. Live storage What is my reasoning? The battle is about Kishenganga. The decision of the International Court of Arbitration will, indeed, mean a loss of somewhere between 10 per cent and 20 per cent of the generation capacity at Pakistans Neelum Jhelum project, an economic and electricity cost which Pakistan can hardly afford. But this is a one-off case the war is about the large number of projects which India plans to build on the Chenab and Jhelum. And here it is the finding of the ICA on allowable manipulable storage which is the key issue. The Baglihar decision would appear to have provided India with a green light to build these projects with as much live storage as they chose (as long as they classified it as for sediment flushing). What is enormously important is that the ICA has, according to early press accounts, addressed this issue head-on and,de facto, concluded that the Baglihar finding in this regard undercut the central compromise of the Indus Waters Treaty, was wrong and should not be applied to future projects. The ICA has, apparently, specifically ruled that the design and operation of Indian hydropower projects on the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum cannot include more live storage than allowed under the IWT, even if the justification for such storage is silt management. This finding is of far greater significance than the one-off (and correct, in my view) finding relating to Kishenganga. It restores the central protection put into question by the Baglihar finding which Pakistan had acquired when Nehru and Ayub Khan signed the IWT in 1960. Joint benefits

A final word. While it is good in the view of this observer that the ICA has put humpty-dumpty back together again, this is not enough. It restores the status quo ante Baglihar, but that is an uneasy and unproductive status quo. Without a change, of course, Pakistan will continue to object to every project on the Indus, Jhelum or Chenab in Indianheld Kashmir (and now, armed with the ICA conclusion on dead storage, Pakistan is likely to win). This will discourage investors from investing in these vital plants on the Indian side, and will escalate the tit-for-tat response (already patent) of India trying to impede needed international support for the construction of hydropower plants in Gilgit Baltistan, which lies on the Pakistani side of the LoC. What is needed is to use the resetting of the terms by the ICA for India and Pakistan to start out in a new direction. This should be one in which there is a search for joint benefits (such as hydropower plants built in the best possible sites, with power sold both ways, and with operating rules which benefit both parties built into the project). As a long-time student of this dynamic in the subcontinent it remains my conviction that the first step in breaking the long-standing vicious cycle must come from sustained, high-level, political leadership from India. I am confident that Pakistan would respond positively to such an overture. And I am equally sure that if this great strategic issue is left in the hands of mid-level bureaucrats, the future is likely to be more of the bad-for-both-sides past. (John Briscoe served as Senior Water Adviser for the World Bank in New Delhi. Now at Harvard University, he was recently the lead consultant for the Water Sector Task Force of the Friends of Democratic Pakistan. The opinions in this piece are his own. The photograph is of the Kishenganga hydroelectric project in north Kashmir.)

Navigating the tricky passage to India

Underscoring Indias importance in Britains evolving foreign policy priorities, British Prime Minister David Cameron was in India this week for a second time since assuming office in 2010. Though his visit to Jallianwala Bagh has evoked mixed reactions in India, he became the first serving British Prime Minister to pay his respects at the site, describing the massacre as a deeply shameful event in British history. He may well have done this for domestic political consumption. Nonetheless, its symbolic importance should not be underestimated. Mr. Cameron is trying to take U.K.-India ties to a new level of maturity and India would do well to respond adequately. Economic relations were the focus of this visit. Accompanying the British Prime Minister was a large business delegation from the U.K. Mr. Cameron emphasised that both New Delhi and London should remove barriers to cooperation and make it easier to invest in each other. Signalling to Indian investors his governments seriousness about the U.K.-India special relationship, Mr. Cameron has decided to introduce a same-day visa service for Indian businesses waiting to invest in the U.K. He also suggested that there is no limit to the number of Indian students who can study at British universities, and to the number that could stay on and work. Seeking partnerships Disenchanted with its special relationship with the U.S. and disillusioned with the overly bureaucratic EU, Britain is now looking to Asia to develop new partnerships. The aim is to use Asias economic dynamism to help Britains status as a major global economy. The

government has decided to inject a new commercialism into the work of the Foreign Office. British Foreign Secretary William Hague has been explicit about the use of Foreign Office to drum up business for Britain, using the countrys extensive diplomatic network to lift its economy. The Conservatives have been clear about India being a priority for the U.K. since Mr. Camerons visit to India in 2006 as the leader of the opposition. Mr. Cameron had written fondly of India before his visit: India is the worlds largest democracy, a rapidly growing economy, a huge potential trading partner, a diverse society with a strong culture of pluralism and a key regional player a force for stability in a troubled part of the world. He had suggested that though Britains relationship with India goes deep, it should go deeper. India and Britain had forged a strategic partnership during former British Prime Minister Tony Blairs visit to India in 2005 but it remained a partnership only in name. The Conservatives were keen on giving it a new momentum. The U.K. is the largest European investor in India and India is the second largest investor in the U.K. Indian students are the second largest group in Britain. There are significant historical, linguistic and cultural ties that remain untapped. But the Labour governments India legacy was very complex and Mr. Camerons government needed great diplomatic finesse to manage the challenges. This was particularly true of the issue of Kashmir where the Labour government could not help but irritate New Delhi. As late as 2009, former Foreign Secretary David Miliband was hectoring India that the resolution of the Kashmir dispute was essential to ending extremism in South Asia. Traditional approach dropped Mr. Camerons government made a serious effort to jettison the traditional British approach towards the subcontinent in so far as it has decided to deal with India as a rising power, not merely as a South Asian entity that needs to be seen through the prism of Pakistan. Mr. Cameron made all the right noises in India during his first trip in 2010. He warned Pakistan against promoting any export of terror, whether to India or elsewhere, and said it must not be allowed to look both ways. He has proposed a close security partnership with India and underlined that Britain, like India, was determined that groups like the Taliban, the Haqqani network or Lashkar-e-Taiba should not be allowed to launch attacks on Indian and British citizens in India or in Britain. Despite causing a diplomatic row with Pakistan and David Miliband calling him loudmouth, Mr. Cameron stuck to his comments. More significantly, the British Prime Minister also rejected any role for his country in the India-Pakistan dispute. In this new phase of India-U.K. ties, economics and trade are likely to dominate. Mr. Cameron has managed to change Indian perceptions about Britain to a considerable extent. If even after this the U.K.-India ties fail to take off, it wont be for lack of trying by the British Prime Minister. (Harsh V. Pant teaches at Kings College, London.) In his bid to trump up business for the U.K., Cameron has made all the right noises on issues critical to India

Private test for Chhattisgarhs public health care

Chhattisgarh is all set to allow private diagnostic centres at public health facilities within three months. Critics are appalled by the idea of business space for private players in public health facilities while supporters feel it will improve the pallid health care infrastructure in the State. The architect of the new model, J.P. Mishra , chief of the State Health Resource Centre the State Health Departments technical assistance body overseeing the project is a strong proponent of public-private partnership. He spoke to Suvojit Bagchi defending private enterprise in public health. Now that the bids are closed for private diagnostic centres vying to set up shop in Chhattisgarhs government hospitals, can you give us a road map of how and when these centres are going to start operation? A committee will be formed and bids will be opened by the committee in front of the bidders. By the end of the month we should be able to identify the laboratories [companies]. Then there will be an agreement between the companies and the government. The lab officials will visit the places [hospital and health facilities] and identify the spaces to be allotted to them. In terms and conditions, we have said that within a month of execution of agreement they should set up the labs. So by April-May first lot of labs should be operational, if everything goes right. Why do you think this model of privatisation of public health infrastructure will improve health care? This is public-private partnership [PPP], not privatisation of health care. Privatisation is selling of ownership. I am rather buying in, contracting in services. I am inviting the private sector to set up shop on my [premises]. Will this provide better health care? Why not? Let me give you the example of Compfed, the Bihar milk cooperative. Throughout the 1990s they were making profit, unlike other PSUs of Bihar, because they perfected the art of outsourcing. They started giving incentive for good work and penalising [bad work]. Compfed gave incentives to truck operators for timely delivery of milk and penalised them for sloppy performance the bonus and penalty model. I tried that in health care You have to understand the importance of outsourcing. If I can get something done cheaper, why should I be doing it myself? That is why the automobile industry outsources 70-80 per cent of production. The automobile companies are driven by a motive of profit Profit is not the only motive, improving upon efficiency is. Yes, I would say my unit cost of providing the same services should become less. Today I have to employ a person or put up a machine regardless of how many people avail the services. Therefore, between a salaried persons earnings and the work the person does, there is no built-in incentive for the person to be efficient. Hence a bonus and penalty model?

Let us take the example of PPP in diagnostics. The turnaround time [delivery of reports] has to be less than 24 hours for at least 95 per cent of the cases referred to the diagnostic centres by the hospitals. If the labs manage to do that for a full year then they get an extension of one year. That is, now we are giving the diagnostic labs permission to operate for 10 years, it will be extended for one more year. If they fail, the tenure will reduce to nine years or even less. That is a bonus and penalty model. How will you monitor this? I had considered the idea of getting the NGOs involved. One reason why PPP is getting questioned is because we have seen how the Bihar model of health care privatisation collapsed The Bihar model did not work because the qualifying criteria were very soft. Then they started with big players. The big players left because the government did not maintain its side of agreement. Payment was not regular. Even the existing players are thinking of going out. In Chhattisgarh, the payments for the patients referred by the hospitals are to be made by an autonomous body called Jeevandeep Samiti, located in the hospitals. One side of my job is to ensure that the laboratories work and on the other side I have to make sure that the payments are done on time. In remote areas of Chhattisgarh you do not have adequate staff or equipment. So if the government could not manage to take health care to remote areas, why do you think the private parties will be able to do it? I do not have a direct answer to that. All I can say [is] you will know after we open the bids, whether they are interested in setting shops in Bastar, Sarguja etc. I agree with you that for remote areas there is no alternative to government services. If you look at the focus, the vast majority [of labs] are to be set in difficult areas. [What] we are trying to do is to organise service delivery in such areas where there is no services. For that we can provide incentives to those who are willing to go to remote areas. And I might start only from Bastar and Sarguja. I am not here to make a profit for itself. What about the diagnostic facilities already existing in the district hospitals? Are you going to shut those down? It is not a question of shutting those down. It is not like everything is available everywhere and nothing is available in some places. Look at the package X-Ray is excluded from [proposed private labs in] district hospitals and health facilities as it is available there. What will happen to the laboratory staff in health facilities? In some cases we have to redeploy the staff. You cannot run a parallel lab if you have given it to a private player. So the lab technician has to be redeployed to a place where services are not given through PPP. There are 500-odd PHCs where we do not have technicians. That is, from district hospitals a person will go to remote areas?

I have not done that detailed an analysis. There could be a choice of a private player taking the person on deputation. So in a way, these district hospitals are going to get affected? To some extent. It has to be seen facility by facility. You cannot generalise. What about the cost to public? We will follow Central Government Health Services (CGHS) rates. And give a 10 per cent discount on that. CGHS rate are less than market rates and thus it compels the private players to reduce their rates. It has happened in Tamil Nadu. The money will come from Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana (RSBY) and Mukhyamantri Swasthya Bima Yojana (MSBY) for in-patients. For outpatients, a part of it will come from Jeevandeep Samiti, paid for by the State government. And we have asked for a small amount from State budget for PPP services because we are asking the Jeevandeeps to pay for outpatient cases and they do not have a fund for that. This is public-private partnership, not privatisation of health care. Privatisation is selling of ownership. I am rather buying in, contracting in services. I am inviting the private sector to set up shop on my [premises].

Nobel keeps kudos but new award is fairer

The annual science prizes set up by Yuri Milner over the past year are worth $3 million apiece. That is more than twice the cash that accompanies a Nobel prize, the awards with which they are inevitably compared. But no one goes into science for the money. Kudos and tenure? Yes. And this is where the prizes differ. The Nobel prize has a cachet that will not be surpassed in a hurry. For all its faults, and sometimes, because of them, the prizes are seen as the pinnacle of a scientific career. Unlike the Milner prizes, there is a limit on the number of people who can share a Nobel prize. That is grossly outdated in modern science, where breakthroughs rarely come at the hands of so few. But the very same restriction makes the Nobels more exclusive, with all the implications that brings. The latest prize from Mr. Milner, the Breakthrough Prize in Life Sciences, is a collaboration with his old friends Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, and Sergey Brin of Google. In one fell swoop, the three gave away $33 million to 11 winners, all major forces in modern biology. Mr. Milner set the tone for the windfalls last summer, when he gave $27 million to nine scientists for fundamental work in physics. Next to the prizes from Mr. Milner and his friends, the Nobels look antiquated. The nomination and selection process is secretive and obscure, and worthy winners go uncredited because of the arbitrary maximum three-person limit on winners. And the awards ceremony is often bizarre. The prizes backed by Mr. Milner have no ceremony. Instead, winners are required to give public lectures on their work, to share their insights far and wide. Most are recorded and posted on the web. Mr. Milner quit a PhD in physics, and went on to make a billion dollars through shrewd investments in social media and other internet enterprises. The prizes are in some way a

show of appreciation. But he wants them to reward the great minds that stayed in science, and reward them very publicly. Guardian Newspapers Limited, 2013

A cauldron of competing demands

Manipur, with a population of over 2.7 million, is home to three major groups: Kuki, Naga, and Meitei. While Meiteis, primarily settled in the four valley districts want territorial integrity of the State to be maintained, Kukis and Nagas are calling for separate administrative arrangements in the hill areas Kukis for a Kukiland and Nagas to join a greater Nagaland. Identity is a major point of conflict between Kukis and Nagas. In the process of identity formation, a number of tribes, including Anal, Maring, Monsang and Moyon, have been assimilated into the Naga fold either by coercion or by other forms of persuasion. Another major point of conflict is land. Ethnic violence from 1992 to 1997 between the two ethnic groups resulted in the death of over 1,000 people, destruction of thousands of homes, and the displacement of tens of thousands of people. While the physical violence has ceased, tensions still linger. The simmering tension has led to different forms of agitation, claims and counterclaims. The conflict started between Thadou and Maring tribes, both recognised as Kuki during the British colonial administration. While the casualty on the Naga side is unclear, the Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM), apex civil body of the Kuki people in Manipur, claims that over 961 Kukis were killed, 360 villages affected, and 100,000 people rendered homeless. The biggest bone of contention is land. The Kuki National Front (KNF), later joined by the Kuki National Organisation (KNO), is demanding that a Kukiland be carved out of the five hill districts of Manipur: Churachandpur, Chandel, Senapati, Tamenglong and Ukhrul. The demand for Kukiland is a direct challenge to the demand for greater or southern Nagaland by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-IM). The Naga militant outfit wants to form greater Nagaland by merging Chandel, Senapati, Tamenglong and Ukhrul with neighbouring Nagaland State. The intention to drive out Kukis from these four hill districts led to ethnic cleansing by the NSCN-IM. Though the initial violence was triggered by militant outfits in Chandel district, it spread to other parts of the State, and to Nagaland and Myanmar as well. Demands To restore peace and normalcy, KIM has put forward two important demands to the Nagas and the Central government. First, it wants the Nagas, especially the NSCN-IM, to formally apologise for the crimes committed in the 1990s and perform customary Kuki rites such as paying Luongman (corpse price) and Tol-theh (cleaning the house for shedding human blood). Second, KIM wants the Central government to compensate the loss of life and property and rehabilitate the thousands of displaced. Naga leaders, particularly the NSCN-IM, have not responded to the demands. While Meiteis oppose the creation of either a Kuki homeland or a greater Nagaland, the Kukis and Nagas are unable to establish any kind of coordination or cooperation. This is

partly due to the simmering tension in the aftermath of the 1992-1997 clashes. The wounds of past miseries are apparently yet to be healed. The mutual distrust has reached such a point that it is difficult for civil society organisations to initiate any congenial dialogue between the two groups. Sidelined It is pertinent to ask whether the government sees the conflict as an internal matter for the ethnic groups concerned to resolve among themselves or as too insignificant an issue to intervene. While the tension lingers, the Central government is having a political dialogue with the NSCN-IM, ignoring calls by the Kuki armed groups for political dialogue despite their commitment to a Suspension of Operation agreement since 2005. It remains unclear whether this is an institutional problem on the part of the Kuki armed organisations, or another manifestation of bias toward the NSCN-IM. The Naga demand has been alive for decades. Similarly, the Kuki National Assembly, a political body established in 1946, submitted a memorandum to Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru on March 24, 1960 demanding the immediate creation of a Kuki state comprising all the Kuki inhabited areas of Manipur. When there are competing demands for the same geographical areas, talking with one group and sidelining the other could engender more problems. That became apparent with the Kuki State Demand Committee (KSDC) announcing last month a series of protests including a Quit Kukiland movement and a call to boycott any official programme, including Republic Day. The KSDC is demanding that the Central government begin a political dialogue with Kuki armed groups or withdraw its local authorities from Kuki inhabited areas. The KSDC has announced a blockade of Manipur from midnight of February 24. It suspended an earlier phase of the blockade in January on an assurance from the Centre that it would begin a political dialogue with the group on their statehood demand. But such talks have not begun. Though there seems no quick fix to the ongoing problems of the Kukis and the Nagas, it has become an issue that cannot be ignored any longer. However any attempt to achieve amicable political solution entails participation from both ethnic groups and other concerned parties, including the Central and State governments. (Nehginpao Kipgen is general secretary of the U.S.-based Kuki International Forum.) With Manipurs Kuki groups again in protest mode, it is time to ask why the Centre ignores their calls for a dialogue but talks to Nagas

Sharper eye on earths waters

In October 2011, an Indo-French scientific satellite, Megha-Tropiques, designed to measure rainfall over the tropical regions of the world, took to the skies. A continuation of that collaborative effort has now produced another scientific mission, this time to monitor the oceans. The Satellite for ARgos and ALtiKa (Saral) is to be launched by Indias Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle today.

Ties between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and its French counterpart, Centre National dEtudes Spatiales (CNES), go back five decades to the early years of Indias space programme. We started to think about increasing and reinforcing the long-term cooperation in the late 1990s by developing together a scientific satellite, according to Sylvie Callari, head of International Relations at CNES. Finding that they were pursuing similar scientific objectives in terms of earth observation, the two space agencies joined hands to develop the Megha-Tropiques satellite. Very quickly we started to think about doing another one and we ended up with this altimetry programme for the study of oceans, she told this correspondent. A satellite altimeter works on the principle of the radar, emitting microwave pulses and picking up signals that bounce back. The time taken for the signal to return provides a measure of the distance between the satellite and the surface of an ocean. By establishing the satellites position in orbit very precisely, the sea surface height can then be determined. The returning signals can also be used to estimate wave heights and winds over the ocean. France flew its first altimeter on the Topex/Poseidon, a spacecraft built jointly with the U.S, which was launched in 1992 and worked till 2006. French altimeters also went on Jason-1 and Jason-2 spacecraft that the two countries sent up in 2001 and 2008 respectively. Advanced instrument The French AltiKa altimeter on the Saral will operate in a higher frequency band (known as Ka) than previous satellite altimeters. Use of a higher frequency, along with correction for atmospheric delays, will allow this altimeter to determine sea surface height with greater precision. In addition, its higher spatial resolution confers the ability to gather data closer to the seashore than before, and also supply more accurate information about inland water bodies, like rivers and lakes. The suggestion for an altimeter-carrying satellite came up at a meeting of the IndoFrench Joint Working Group about a decade back, according to persons who occupied senior positions in Indian space programme at the time. For ISRO, which has not made an altimeter, the collaboration offered a way to gain experience in operating and using such a satellite. Moreover, the proposal also fitted in with the space agencys own ideas for creating a small satellite weighing about 400 kg at launch. Typically, instruments are embedded in various parts of a satellite during its assembly. But a modular approach was evolved for the Saral. Its instruments came from France as a single module. The Indian side developed the basic satellite structure, known as the bus, which provides basic housekeeping functions. The instrument module was attached to the bus with a few bolts and an electrical connector. The same bus could be used again in future, reducing the time needed to put together satellites carrying other instrument modules, observed a retired ISRO scientist. Sarals altimeter will help scientists watch the worlds oceans and its shrinking ice sheets. As the climate has warmed, global sea levels have risen. A significant fraction of the world population is settled along coastlines, often in large cities with extensive infrastructure, making sea-level rise potentially one of the most severe long-term impacts of climate change, pointed out a World-Bank-sponsored study last year.

National security perspective It is good for India, which has long coastline, to get into sea-level monitoring, remarked Raghu Murtugudde, professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Maryland in the U.S. From a national security perspective, India also needed to worry about countries in its neighbourhood that might get swamped by rising seas, like Bangladesh or the Maldives. Sea surface height is actually a very good indicator of how much heat there is in the underlying ocean, said Krishna AchutaRao of IIT Delhi, one of the principal investigators on the Saral/AltiKa science team. Nearly 90 per cent of the additional heat trapped by greenhouse gases ended up in the oceans. Data from Sarals altimeter, along with other information, would be useful for understanding how the long-term heat content of the oceans has been changing, especially that of the Indian Ocean. On a global scale, how the ocean takes up and distributes heat affects the atmospheric temperature change we experience under warming, he pointed out. Regionally, the availability of heat affects many weather and climate phenomena, including the monsoon. At the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (Incois) based in Hyderabad, Sarals altimeter data would go into high-resolution ocean state forecasting models that are being set up for the Indian coast. Such predictions of sea conditions would help fishermen, the shipping industry, oil and gas companies as well as the Coast Guard and Navy, according to its director, Satheesh Shenoi. Saral will also carry an Argos payload for relaying data from transmitters that provide worldwide environmental monitoring and tracking. Thousands of such transmitters have been deployed on ocean buoys as well as various other platforms on land and sea. They have even been attached to birds and animals to track migration over long distances. A product of Indo-French collaboration, the Saral satellite will help better monitor sea levels

Beyond Commonwealth, cricket & curry

Few Australians are aware that Indian contingents fought alongside the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps at Gallipoli that is so central to the founding myth of Australian (and New Zealand) identity. As cricket legend Rahul Dravid noted in the 2011 Bradman Oration at the Australian War Memorial, appropriately enough, 1,300 Indian soldiers lost their lives at Gallipoli. Indians fought alongside Australians also in El Alamein, North Africa, in the Syria-Lebanon campaign, in Burma, in the battle for Singapore during the Second World War. Conspicuous absence Based on common colonial links and political systems, Australias relations with India should be close and comfortable and those with China contentious. In fact, compared to substantial and mutually beneficial relations with China, Australia has had sparse and troubled relations with India. Its 1997 White Paper described bilateral relationships as the basic building block of foreign policy. After taking into account the totality of Australian

interests, the Paper affirmed that the most significant bilateral relationships for Australia were those with the U.S., Japan, China and Indonesia. Significant interests were also engaged in relations with South Korea, other ASEAN countries, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea. India was conspicuous for its absence just as it was finally taking off. That has now changed. With Indias history of opposition to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and refusal to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the nuclear irritant to the bilateral relationship assumed a symbolic importance vastly out of proportion to the objective dimensions of the problem. Each side was firmly convinced of its own intellectual and moral rectitude and therefore smugly contemptuous of the other. Australia held India to have been deceitful in conducting a nuclear test in 1974 and a stubborn recalcitrant on the CTBT, in the passage of which Canberra played a key role in 1996. India has always considered countries like Australia and Canada to be grossly hypocritical in having permitted British atomic tests on their territory, sheltering under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, hosting U.S. military installations that are tightly integrated in the global U.S. nuclear infrastructure, and deeply implicated in global U.S. nuclear doctrines and deployments, yet moralising self-righteously to India about the virtues of nuclear weapons abstinence. The stark reality that India today matters more than Australia provided the strategic rationale for Canberra to modify a key and longstanding plank of its anti-nuclear policy. The Howard government had decided in principle to sell uranium to India but lost office in 2007. In 2008, the Rudd government joined Washington in the vote in the Nuclear Suppliers Group to rewrite the rule book for Indias benefit. But this left the Labor government with an illogical and untenable policy. It supported open access to global nuclear trade for India despite its isolated status under the NPT, but would not sell Australian uranium because India had not signed the NPT. Ban lifted The oddity of selling uranium to China as an NPT-licit nuclear weapon power despite its suspect record on nuclear proliferation to Pakistan and North Korea, and banning it to India as an NPT-illicit nuclear armed state yet with a demonstrable record of nuclear nonproliferation to any third party, became a favourite refrain. In December 2011, the Labor Party voted formally to lift its longstanding ban on uranium sales to India despite the latter not being an NPT signatory, clearing the way for the government to negotiate a bilateral safeguards agreement as the precursor to exporting uranium to fuel Indias nuclear power programme. Prime Minister Julia Gillards visit to India in October 2012, during which she put an offer on the table to negotiate sale of uranium to India, was generally considered a success in both countries. In addition to the persistent NPT irritant, in general, and the ban on Australian uranium sales to India, in particular, problems in the recent past have included on and off field controversies in cricket, attacks on Indian students especially in Melbourne which the state government and police were slow to acknowledge had a racial tinge to it, the welfare of Indian students in general including visa difficulties, and the occasional assaults on Australian tourists and missionaries in India. The noisy media in both countries can inflame popular passions and prejudices and complicate government-to-government relations.

The federal nature of both political systems also produces surprising misunderstandings, including over student welfare concerns. Shared challenges Indias attraction to Australia has grown as a diplomatic actor of influence in shared major global problems and challenges, a policy and operational partner in managing the global commons of the high seas (for example, Indias longstanding and prominent role in combating piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Malacca Straits), climate, disaster relief (as in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami), etc; a partner in fighting the scourge of international terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism; a strategic counterweight to China; a market for primary resources and services; and as a growing source of tourists, migrants and investments. The two countries have a shared strategic interest in a stable Indo-Pacific Asia that links them also to Indonesia and South Africa around the Indian Ocean rim. Because the overwhelming majority of Australias population is concentrated along the east coast, it has been difficult to register on the public consciousness that Perth is closer to Chennai than Melbourne, Sydney or Brisbane are to Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing. Beyond the three Cs of Commonwealth, cricket and curry, there is a deepening set of trade, security, cultural, educational, and services ties that together provide considerable ballast to the bilateral relationship. Australias abundance of natural resources and its word-class services sector, including in particular education, combined with its small population base, are perfect complements to Indias billion strong population, youthful demographic profile, growing middle class, vibrant private sector with an expanding global footprint in miningto-marketing operations, and voracious appetite for energy and infrastructure development. While bilateral ties are not yet as deep as the ties that bind Australia to China, Japan and Indonesia, there are also fewer potential points of major friction to worry about in the future. The China angle was explicitly adduced by The Australian in an editorial (April 30, 2012) endorsing Indias test of its first intercontinental ballistic missile in April 2012 whose 5,5008,000km range puts most of China within range of Indias nuclear warheads. Washington supports a deepening of the India-Australia strategic relationship. Contest of ideas In the longer term, more important than any military balancing of China by Australia and India, in cooperation with other regional and global friends and allies, will be the contest of ideas. India has been singularly reluctant and is surprisingly ill-equipped to engage in this contest. It could learn much from Australia, starting with a more robust defence of liberal democratic values and human rights. Despite more than six decades of constitutional democratic governance, India does not demonstrate a high priority to hard or soft human rights promotion as a core element of foreign policy. It is hard to think of a non-Muslim country that has a greater life-and-death stake in confronting and reversing the tide of radical Islam than India. That will be done eventually through the vigorous contest of ideas. In turn that requires learning the skills of norm entrepreneurship. India has all the objective assets for the role in abundance. Australia, as a leading example of successful middle power norm entrepreneurship and multilateral coalition building, could help India with a pivotal rebalancing of interests and values.

As long as India remains more concerned with consolidating national power aspirations than developing the norms and institutions of global governance, it will remain an incomplete power, limited by its own narrow ambitions, with material grasp being longer than their normative reach. India should make a deliberate effort to learn how to shift its default foreign policy mode from the universal multilateralism of the weak of yesteryear, to norm-advancing selective coalitions of the influential as the diplomacy of the future. (The writer is Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University) Although some issues persist in India-Australia relations, the two countries have much to gain economically and strategically from deepening bilateral ties

Dont lower your guard

The Reserve Bank of Indias guidelines for setting up new private sector banks come three years after the then Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, in his 2010-11 budget speech, expressed the governments intention to award a few new bank licences to private players, including industrial houses. The RBI proceeded step by step, circulating a discussion paper, and inviting stakeholders to share their views. Last August, it issued a set of draft guidelines. Even at that late stage, it was common knowledge that the governments enthusiasm to induct private players was not shared by the RBI, which has had especially serious reservations over the possible entry of industrial conglomerates. Though the central bank sought for and subsequently obtained legislative powers to more effectively supervise banks and supersede their boards of directors if need be, the controversy over the possible entry of conglomerates remained. Viewed from many standpoints, this apprehension is justified. One of the reasons major private banks were taken over in 1969 was because their managements were found cosying up to their industrialist-owners. More recently, in the 1990s, the experiment of inducting a few new generation private banks was only partially successful. Although all the new banks met the regulatory criteria relating to capital and technology among others, only a few have flourished, almost certainly due to their excellent pedigree. The weaker ones have merged with the stronger banks and one high flier, the Global Trust Bank, had to be rescued by the public sector Oriental Bank of Commerce. The point is that no matter how stiff the entry barriers appear to be, it is impossible to weed out undesirable applicants. For all the precautions that are to be taken before awarding the licences the RBI has proposed a scrutiny of short-listed applicants by outside experts the subjective element cannot be eliminated altogether. At the present juncture, the scope for applicants to use political connections to influence the process is real. Curiously, in a departure from the earlier draft, the final guidelines do not prevent real estate companies and brokerages from applying. In all likelihood, some of those queuing up to open their own banks will indeed be from these speculative sectors. The wisdom of lowering ones guard is not at all clear. It is not wise to ignore the numerous warnings on opening up the banking sector to conglomerates. The IMF has, in a recent report, pointed out that the risks of inviting conglomerates outweigh the possible benefits from the new banks. Finally, the question needs to be asked as to why the policy goal of greater financial inclusion cannot be pursued without inducting industrial houses. Taking freedom of mobility seriously

There are potentially huge benefits even for the able-bodied population in the Tamil Nadu governments notification of rules to create special facilities for the disabled in urban local bodies. That makes the case stronger to embrace universal design across all construction activity. All multi-storeyed buildings with more than two floors that the public access on a regular basis are mandated to be equipped with ramps, lifts and other appropriate provisions under the new rules. Lest they should lead to arbitrary interpretation, the rules explicitly mention all educational institutions, health care and banking services, leisure and recreation facilities, shopping malls, industries and much else as falling within their purview. The measure will make a material difference in the lives of large numbers of people with locomotor impairments, for whom the constitutionally guaranteed right to freedom of mobility has all but remained notional. The commitments made in the relevant 1995 law for persons with disabilities have likewise by and large eluded them. But Indias demographic transition has brought into sharp focus a convergence between the needs of the population aged 60 years and above and those of the disabled. The elderly constitute 10.3 per cent of Tamil Nadus population, above the national average of close to 7.5 per cent, according to the 2010 Sample Registration System. The prevalence of age-induced ailments such as arthritis among this segment means the elderly, too, will benefit from the convenience of ramps and not just wheel-chair users. Clearly, there is a large constituency out there beyond legal definitions of disabilities for which freedom of mobility is a real issue. That should once and for all rest the case against claims that the costs of special provisions for the disabled far outweigh the gains. Such an argument is at best a convenient cloak for inaction. It is also obvious that improvements in physical accessibility are only part of the long journey to ensure equality of opportunities for the disabled. Commensurate measures ought to be initiated in the arenas of education and employment. Training skilled personnel for sign-language interpretation for the hearing impaired, developing technologies for people with low-vision and the introduction of reasonable accommodation in the workplace are important among them. In their absence, the right to free and compulsory education would remain a mirage for children with impairments and the wider objective of an inclusive society. Ambitious as they seem, the Tamil Nadu rules stipulate a 180-day deadline for implementation. Other States in the country should follow this lead. Deciding who gets to eat International agencies are warning of high food prices on a global scale in 2013 if urgent action is not taken. But our government shows little concern. The Presidents address to Parliament had only a cursory mention of inflation. Inflation is easing gradually, but is still a problem, he said. Still a problem? Surely the suffering of people from the relentless price rise inflicted on them by the flawed policies of the United Progressive Alliance deserves more recognition and redress. Perversely, the government is intensifying the very policies which cause price rise. Even the World Bank, whose neoliberal policy impositions are responsible to a great extent for global food inflation, has warned that high and volatile food prices are becoming the new normal. The FAO warns that despite decline in international food prices in the latter quarter of 2012, they remain close to all time highs. Stocks of key cereals have tightened. Among the reasons are the diversion of land from food grains production, speculative trade,

low public investment in agriculture and depleted stocks. This critique is as valid for India as it is for the more developed countries. Food vs. fuel While the severe drought in the United States, Russia, the Ukraine and elsewhere is also cited as a reason for a likely fall in the production of wheat and a consequent increase in food prices, the FAO has warned that the continuing diversion of land to produce crops for the bio-fuel industry in the U.S., Europe and the growing trend of companies to buy land in developing countries like Africa for growing such crops, will lead to increasing hunger worldwide. By subsidising corn production for bio-fuels, the U.S. pulls out corn from food supply, raising prices. Cars and fuel it would seem are more important than people and food. Food shortages are also ideal scenarios for rampant speculation. Speculation in futures trade in food commodities was one of the crucial causes for international prices skyrocketing in 2008. The impact was disastrous for import dependent countries. In the aftermath of the ruination of millions of families across the world, the G20 countries, including India, had resolved to take remedial measures. In 2010 in the U.S., the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act suggested a set of regulations to curb speculation. To implement the law, the Commodities Futures Trade Commission in the U.S. imposed position limits on the proportion of the market that could be held by any one institution so as to curb the capacity to manipulate prices. Even though the limit was as high as a quarter of the market, it was challenged in court by financial market associations. A U.S. district federal court recently ruled that no such limitations can be imposed, holding that the CFTC has been unable to prove any link between speculation in food commodities and high prices! The CFTC has decided to appeal against this and it will be interesting to see the arguments it puts forward to establish the linkages. Perhaps home-grown loyalists to the U.S. views can take a few lessons from even the limited interventions of the CFTC. But, in any case, the regulations have been put on hold. In the European Union, the regulatory regime which was to be implemented by the end of 2012 has also been postponed. The speculators, in the meanwhile, have been back in business. Barclays Bank has admitted that it made a profit of $548 million and Goldman Sachs made up to $400 million in 2012 from speculation in food including wheat and maize. Glencore, one of the biggest companies in the business, was pretty clear of its priorities. The U.S. drought is good for Glencore said its Trade Wing Chief, meaning thereby that its $2.5 billion pre-tax profit could be further augmented by speculation on the shortages created by the drought. The recent UNCTAD report linking speculative capital with the price rise in food stated that over $400 billion is traded in food commodities, that is 20-30 times the physical production of the actual commodity. The crux of the issue is that high speculation in futures markets pushes up spot prices of the commodity being traded. That is why there is a rising global demand for prohibition of futures trade in essential commodities. Is it any different in India? The government often uses high global prices of food to camouflage its own failure. In fact, the reasons for price rise in India are entirely domestic and self-inflicted. A comparison of the Consumer Price Index for BRICS countries shows that India has the dubious distinction of the highest year on year inflation at 11.17 per cent, with China at the

lowest of 1.9 per cent, South Africa at 5.75 per cent, Brazil at 6.15 per cent and Russia at 6.54 per cent. Data provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows a rise in the wholesale price index of food between 2011-2012 and January 2012-2013 of 11.88 per cent. Some striking examples are the rise in the price of cereals by over 18 per cent, vegetables by 28.4 per cent, pulses by nearly 19 per cent and sugar by 13 per cent. These are the wholesale prices. The increase in retail prices would be even higher. Sugar decontrol is imminent, which will be followed by a further rise in sugar prices. The deregulation of petrol and now diesel prices has a cascading impact on increasing inflation, including in food. Petrol prices have been raised 19 times since 2009, registering an increase of 120 per cent. The price of diesel is up by 67 per cent. Land use Mimicking the U.S., India too is ignoring the lessons of the global crisis. Large tracts of agricultural land are being handed over to the private corporate sector, including for real estate. This is in addition to the ongoing policy of incentivising production of export driven cash crops instead of food grains. The last Economic Survey itself reports this fall in gross area under food grains by roughly 5 million hectares if we compare the decade preceding the neoliberal reforms in the 1980s to the two post-reform decades of the 1990s and the 2000s. Self -reliance and self sufficiency in food grain production which require an alternative policy framework are now discarded policy pursuits for this government despite their crucial role in protecting Indian consumers from the volatility of international prices. Market manipulation In India, futures trade in agricultural commodities includes around 25 sensitive food items like wheat, sugar, chana, desi urad, edible oil, mustard seeds, a variety of spices and even potatoes and onions. In the light of the warnings of global food shortages, it is essential for the government to delist food items from futures trade and also to resist the growing pressure to lift the current ban on rice futures. It should learn from the most recent and scandalous example of the highly speculative trade in guar (the gum of which is used as a thickening agent in some foods and also as a sealant for shale gas). In the year ending October 2012, the price had shot up 1000 times yielding profits worth Rs. 1,290 crore to identified companies indulging in speculation. But producers of guar , mainly farmers from Rajasthan, received no benefits as they had already sold their crop. Although the trade has since been suspended, prices are still volatile. Such blatant manipulation of the market invites no punishment in liberalised India. Unlike some other developing countries, India has sufficient stocks, over 6.62 crore tonnes of food grains as on February 1, 2013, three times the norm set for this quarter which is 2 crore tonnes. Given the anticipated shortage in world markets, big companies, foreign and domestic, have started putting pressure on the government to liquidate the stocks by allowing liberal exports. The value of exports of food grains in 2012 was $20 billion or over 1.8 lakh crore rupees. While wheat was exported at global prices of between Rs. 1,800 to 2,000 a quintal, the support price the Indian farmer received was at least one third less at Rs.1,285. The export of rice also was at prices far higher than the MSP. Thus the government helped traders and exporters make profits while denying farmers a fair price.

The liquidation of stocks for exports which help traders not farmers is taking place at a time when India is home to a quarter of all malnourished people in the world. The stocks should and must be used to ensure an amount of food grains not less then 35 kg per family at subsidised rates through a universal public distribution system It is equally necessary in view of the anticipated global shortage of food grains to use the stocks judiciously as a buffer against hoarding and black marketing. Reckless exports of food grains are not in Indias interests. (Brinda Karat is with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and a former Member of Parliament) By allowing futures trade in food and diversion of farm land for commercial purposes, the UPA government is fuelling the price rise

Building inclusive cities

Rapid urbanisation led by expanding cities might have done well in terms of economic growth, but it has significantly fallen short in terms of addressing the needs of the poor. It is disquieting to note that informal settlements occupy one-third of the area in large urban centres such as Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai and the population living in urban slums is set to climb steeply to reach about 105 million in another five years a 40 per cent increase over the 2001 level. Against this background, the recent Delhi Declaration, a resolution drafted at the end of the international conference on Inclusive Urban Planning, organised by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation in partnership with the World Bank and UNDP, offers hope but also raises doubts. Hope is in the form of the expert groups affirmation that the urban poor would be recognised as important stakeholders and included in the process of urban planning. This decision gives reason to believe the spatial marginalisation caused by the current form of urban planning, and the suffering it inflicts on vulnerable groups, would end. However, doubts arise because promises made in the past, such as making Indian cities slum free by 2014, have been way off mark. Slums proliferate because cities are either too slow to respond to the needs of the poor or ignore the inequalities the housing deficit creates. Unfortunately, these informal settlements neither get government recognition nor figure in development schemes. As a result, city Master Plans focus on legitimate areas, leaving slums to languish as spatial black holes without adequate urban services. Their vulnerability multiplies as their potential property value increases due to location. As a first step, taking a cue from countries like Brazil which have experience in slum upgradation, municipal governments should recognise informal settlements as special zones of social interest. This would provide much-needed legal protection, prevent forced eviction and stop deterioration of living conditions. Development plans can follow and integrate these informal areas with the mainstream planning process. When critical slum upgradation programmes such as the Dharavi redevelopment project, announced more than two decades ago, remain non-starters, they erode the credibility of the government. The inexplicable delays also raise the question of whether slum redevelopment is a means to exploit the real estate value. Only a participatory and transparent process and the timely completion of such projects will reassure the poor that the government is committed to developing inclusive cities.

A budget freighted with the past It was perhaps unrealistic to expect the last rail budget to be presented by the incumbent government before facing a general election to tread any unbeaten path or introduce revolutionary concepts. To that extent, the maiden budget proposals of Railway Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal are on expected lines. There are no major surprises. However, there are a few issues concerning the future course that this crucial infrastructure behemoth will take that should be of concern to not only the UPA government but any dispensation that may be in power thereafter. Modest growth rate Less than a year ago, Mr. Bansals predecessor, who presented the previous budget, envisioned an investment of Rs.7.15 lakh crore during the 12th Five Year Plan. The Gross Budgetary Support component out of this was projected as Rs. 2.5 lakh crore. It is rather distressing to note that the 12th Plan approved by the Planning Commission has scaled down the Railway plan to Rs. 5.19 lakh crore with a GBS component of Rs. 1.94 lakh crore. In other words, the government is not in a position to provide for a much higher rate of growth of the railway sector than it has historically done. The long-term implication of this modest growth rate on the economy as a whole needs to be looked into. Such scaling down of growth plans also calls into question the need for formulating grandiose vision plans that have no chance of materialising. The bettering of the safety target in terms of accidents per million tonne km of traffic (0.13 achieved against a target of 0.17 set for 2013) is creditworthy. There is need for the Railways to analyse how this reduction was achieved so that the feedback can inform safety investment decisions in future. The announcement of the formulation of a Corporate Safety Plan 2013-14 is a welcome step. It is to be hoped that the plan will be formulated and implemented with the same diligence and consistency as was done in the case of the first CSP. Heavy haul club It is a matter of pride that the Indian Railways has joined the select club of world railways moving more than a billion tonnes of freight annually, and is entering into yet another exclusive group of railways moving more than 10,000 tonnes per train. Some concomitant steps that should improve maintainability, reduce maintenance costs and improve staff productivity such as widespread introduction of track friendly/self-steering bogies and doing away with the anachronistic institution of goods guards, have not been explicitly mentioned in the budget. Hopefully, these and other steps will be implemented. The targets of Rs.1000 crore each for the Rail Land Development authority and the IR Station Development Corporation to be raised through the PPP route and Rs. 4500 crore through scrap disposal during the year are quite ambitious. It needs to be seen how far these are achieved considering the limited success so far, particularly in the area of PPP. E-ticketing The Ministers announcement of a revamp of the E-ticketing system to handle 7,200 tickets per minute from the existing 2000 tickets per minute and to handle 120,000 users at a time instead of the present 40,000 should come as a welcome relief to prospective passengers.

This also means that passengers should be prepared for the scenario that seats/berths in popular trains will get filled up that much faster! As in previous budgets, a resolve to fill 1.52 lakh vacancies has been proclaimed. It needs repeating that if all the vacancies were to be filled immediately, whatever excess has been projected in the budget would get wiped out. The average annual cost of one lakh employees is in excess of Rs. 4000 crore. This hard fact is being repeatedly smoothed over. Staff productivity has to improve if the present levels of compensation are to be sustained. There is no mention of this aspect in the budget. The proposal to impart skills to youth in railway related trades in 25 locations is a welcome initiative. As in every rail budget in the recent past, this budget also lists a number of manufacturing facilities to be set up either in collaboration with the State governments or through the PPP route, apart from upgrading the existing Railway workshops. It is not clear whether a comprehensive study has been done to see if the expansion of the existing/already planned units will serve the purpose instead of proliferating such units all over the system. Sixty-seven new express trains and 27 new passenger trains have been proposed to be introduced apart from extending the services of 57 trains and increasing the frequency of 24 trains. No doubt, these are being proposed as a consequence of tremendous public pressure. But the fact that not more than 60 per cent of trains at any moment are on time is a sobering reminder of the extreme pressure to which the system is being subjected. The attitude seems to be: who cares? Financial performance It is creditable that an operating ratio of 88.8 per cent is being achieved during the current year 2012-13, even after fully repaying the loan of Rs 3,000 crore along with interest that was taken from the Ministry of Finance, and after setting aside Rs. 9500 crore for Depreciation Reserve Fund (DRF). Against this, the budget estimate for 2013-14 projects an Operating Ratio (OR) of 87.8 per cent with a DRF appropriation of only Rs.7500 crore. This once again highlights the need for a more reliable index of financial performance rather than the present OR, which can be tweaked to suit by appropriately adjusting the DRF allocation. It is hoped that the proposed revamping of the accounting system will look into this aspect. Additional capacity The incremental loading of 40 million tonnes projected for 2013-14 vis--vis the BE of 2012-13 is far below the projections arising out of the Vision 2020 document of nearly 100 million tonnes. This is an indication of how far the Railways have fallen behind their growth plans projected hardly three years ago. Food for thought at the highest level whether the Railways should lead or lag behind the overall economys growth rate. In this context, the Minsters announcement that contracts covering 1500 km of the Dedicated Freight Corridors on the Eastern and Western sector will be awarded during 201314 is welcome news as the completion and commissioning of these two corridors is essential before the effects of the next Pay Commission deal a fatal blow to Railway finances around 2017-18. Tariff proposals

The Ministers announcement for Fuel Adjustment Component (FAC) linked revision of freight tariff, a proposal mooted by his predecessor, with effect from April 1, 2013 is welcome. His reluctance to bite the FAC bullet in the case of passenger fares is understandable, considering that a revision has been done recently. But hopefully this will not once again lead to a long hiatus of passenger fare revision citing various reasons. It is necessary to institutionalise the revision of freight tariff and fares through the proposed Rail Tariff Regulatory Authority. However, it is doubtful whether a final decision in this regard will be taken during the balance tenure of this government. Structural reforms Typically, the budget has skirted the prickly issue of structural reforms. There is no mention in the budget of even the proposal in the last budget to expand the Board to include two members to look after PPP /Marketing and safety/research. The proposal has perhaps been shelved. Overall, the budget conveys an impression of an exercise to keep the system going very much as it has done in the past, at a modest growth rate. Whether such a rate of growth of this key infrastructure sector will be sufficient to sustain the projected growth rates of the economy as a whole remains to be seen. A final thought Does the Railway Minster have to read out the complete list of projects, new lines, etc., in his budget speech, many names of locations or stations unpronounceable depending on which part of the country the Minster hails from? The previous Minister had included all such details in Annexures to the budget speech. It will be a good practice to adopt that convention to save time and embarrassment. (K. Balakesari is former Member Staff, Railway Board) Bansals plan for the Railways has no surprises and seems to be an exercise in keeping the system going

Sowing stress, reaping drought

Every apartment is a dream come true the coronet that tops the king-sized lifestyle of true blue blood. So run the ads. Yup. The blue bloods do it big. Each apartment has its own private swimming pool. These are, after all, super-luxurious, supersized designer apartments. The kind that match the royal lifestyles. There are also the villas the builders proudly announce as their first gated community project. And yes, each of them ranging from 9,000 to 22,000 square feet also offers its own private swimming pool. In yet other buildings coming up, the duplex penthouses will each have, you guessed it: private swimming pools. These are just in Pune alone. All of them with other amenities needing still more water. A small but proud trend with the promise of more to come. All of them in regions of a State lamenting their greatest drought in 40 years. In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavans view, one of our worst droughts ever. In a State where thousands of villages now depend on visits from water tankers. A daily visit if youre lucky. Once or twice a week if youre not. Yet its as if there is no connection between the swimming pools and the drying lakes. Theres very little discussion about it, for sure. As little as there was during two

decades when the State rejoiced in the spread of dozens of water parks and water-theme entertainment parks. At one point, a score of them in the Greater Mumbai region alone. Major diversions Across the drought-hit regions of the State, despair grows. Over 7,000 villages are drought or scarcity-hit. Officially. Thousands of others are also in a bad way but are not classified as drought-hit. Of those declared as affected, some will get a bit of help. The government runs water tanker visits for them. Thousands of others make direct deals with private tankers. Close to half-a-million animals are dependent on cattle camps. Distress sales of cattle go on briskly, too. Water in many reservoirs is below 15 per cent. In some it is close to deadstorage levels. But far more than the searing drought of 1972, this is a man-made one. There have been huge diversions of water in the last 15 years to industrial projects. And to private companies also in the lifestyle business. To cities from villages. Blood has been shed over such transfers. As in Maval in 2011 when police fired on angry farmers, killing three and wounding 19 others. They were protesting the government acquiring their land for a water pipeline from the Pavana dam to Pimpri Chinchwad. The scale of water loss this implied drew thousands more into the protests as well. The States response at the time was to book around 1,200 people for attempted murder. And for rioting as well. Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar also did his best to lock in the control of industry over irrigation. He even tried to amend for the worse, the already regressive Maharashtra Water Resources Regulatory Authority Act. One new clause on his agenda would have barred any challenge to water-distribution policies. The trends in diversion for lifestyle-entertainment though, are not new. In 2005, a huge Fun & Food Village Water & Amusement Park popped up in Nagpur (Rural) district. That, in a period of real water stress. The Fun Village had 18 kinds of water slides. It also had Indias first snowdrome along with an ice rink. It is not easy to maintain snow and ice in 47 heat. That took huge amounts of electricity in a region seeing 15-hour power cuts. It also guzzled massive amounts of water. Lavasa and agriculture This is also a State that added quite a few golf courses in the past decade or so. It now has 22, with more in the pipeline. Golf courses use huge amounts of water. This has often sparked conflicts with farmers in the past. Golf courses worldwide also use vast amounts of pesticide that can seep into and affect the water of others as well. Besides, this is a State where weve seen angry protests over the water soaked up by private projects like Lavasa, Independent Indias first hill city. Sharad Pawar has drawn applause for ticking off his own partys minister, Bhaskar Jadhav, for wasteful spending on a family wedding in a time of drought. But the Union Agriculture Minister has always been gung-ho about Lavasa. The projects website noted quite a while ago that it has permission to store 0.87 TMC. That is 24.6 billion litres of water. No State has spent more money to create less irrigation. The Economic Survey 201112 found that land under irrigation had gone up by just 0.1 per cent of land in a whole decade. Which still means that less than 18 per cent of cropped area in the State is irrigated. Thats after spending tens of billions of rupees to produce many millionaires and very little irrigation. The major transfers of water to industry also come in a time of agricultural

decline. (A 23 per cent fall in foodgrain in 2011-12 according to the Economic Survey .) Even as foodcrop declines, fully two-thirds of Maharashtras sugarcane is grown in droughtprone or water scarce areas. At least one Collector had called for sugarcane crushing in his district to be suspended during this crisis. The sugar factories there together use up to 90 lakh litres a day. Given the power the sugar barons wield, the Collector is more likely to be suspended than the crushing. The water needed for one acre of sugarcane can irrigate 10-12 acres of foodcrops like jowar . More than half of Maharashtras irrigation water goes to this crop which takes just six per cent of the cultivated area. Sugarcane requires 180 acre inches of water. That is, 18 million litres per acre . Eighteen million litres can meet the domestic water needs of 3,000 rural households for a month (Thats based on a modest 40 litres a day per person). This in regions where the water table falls every year. That has not deterred Maharashtra from encouraging Rose cultivation a very tiny trend but growing swiftly with the promise of more to come. Roses need even more water. They need 212 acre inches. Which is 21.2 million litres of water per acre. Indeed, rose cultivation, small as it is, has been a cause for some celebration in the State. Exports this year went up by some 15-25 per cent. The rupees slide, an extended winter and Valentines Day gifted rose growers this happy situation. In the last 15 years, the only regulatory frameworks the State has put in place lead to greater privatisation of water. To quicker loss of community control over this natural resource. One that is rapidly depleting. At the same time, the unchecked exploitation of groundwater has made things a lot worse. Maharashtra worked hard to get to the crisis it now faces. Private swimming pools amidst oceans of dry despair. For the rich, there is never a scarcity. For so many of the rest, their hopes evaporate by the day. sainath.p@thehindu.co.in How we use water can be as important as how much water we have. Who owns or controls that water will prove crucial

How Ethiopians benefit from Indian (and other) land investors

The article in The Hindu , by Ashish Kothari, How Ethiopians are being pushed off their land (Op-Ed, February 19, 2013) is far from the truth and makes charges that are unfounded. Had the organisers of the so-called India-Ethiopia Seminar on Land Investment been interested in presenting a legitimate report to the Indian public, they would have invited the Embassy of Ethiopia in New Delhi or Indian investors who can give first hand information on Ethiopias land policy. The prime focus of the policy of the government of Ethiopia is ensuring food security of its citizens. To this end, the priority area is the enhancement of agricultural productivity at household levels. This implies that the bulk of the governments positive intervention in the area of ensuring food security involves helping the millions of smallholder farmers in the country. The government believes that such a focus can best address the bulk of the population. Not only is the government focused on providing the necessary support and leadership to small holders, but it has a clear policy that no small holding farmer will be dispossessed of

his/her land for the purpose of foreign investors intending to engage in commercial farming. There is absolutely no farmer displaced from his or her land for any such purpose. In this regard it is worth noting that most criticism against the government had in the past largely been about the governments over-protection of smallholders and its reluctance to fully embrace massive commercial farming. Now that the government has launched an ambitious Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) to double the nations GDP in five years, the role of agro-investment becomes all the more decisive. Most of the companies will be involved in the production of highly needed cereals, which will not only earn the nation highly needed foreign currency but also contribute to the ensuring of food security and food self-sufficiency in the country. It is also the policy of the government that large swathes of hitherto uncultivable land in very remote and inaccessible parts of the country should be made available to foreign investors interested to invest in commercial farming. The government wants to put to use hithertounused and mostly inaccessible-swathes of land for the purpose of augmenting its campaign to ensure food security. Negligible displacement Here again, the focus of the GTP is that beyond scaling up the productivity of small holders, more attention must be paid to raise the level of contribution of extensive and mechanised farming in the nations endeavour to extricate itself out of poverty. The majority of these lands are to be found in sparsely populated regions of the country, where the risk of displacing local populations for this purpose is far too negligible, at worst. The areas being allocated for this purpose are totally inaccessible in terms not only of infrastructure development, but also those which have hardly been inhabited by people. So in all fairness, the talk about people being displaced for the purpose of land lease is unfounded at best and even deliberately contrived at worst. The Government of Ethiopia takes the issue of climate change and social impact seriously. The lands that are made available for investors are thoroughly studied in order to ensure that the investment projects impact on the livelihood of the local communities as well as their impact on climate is kept to the most minimum possible. Any reader of the article can say with certainty that we dont hear much fuss over similar projects in other parts of the world such as Latin America. It can be surmised that the noise about land grab in Africa has everything to do with the paternalism of some of the activists as well as with the identity of the investors who are currently benefiting from the deals. Quite obviously, the investors are mainly from India, China and Middle East countries unlike in the case of, say Latin America, where such projects are mainly owned by western investors. It would, therefore, be important, particularly for a newspaper like The Hindu , which mainly targets Indian readers, to keep this fact in mind. The noise about land grab also has another face. It is a clear reminder of the condescending outlook reflected by many western institutions doubting the capability of African states to sincerely advocate the interest of their citizens.

Hence the whole report of the so-called seminar was a reflection of the usual effort to daunt investment activities from emerging economies like that of India. (Metasebia Tadesse is Minister Counsellor at the Embassy of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, New Delhi.) Land-grab noise is aimed at scaring off investment from emerging economies

Standard gauge
Except for the fact that it was after 17 long years that a Congress minister got to present the Railway budget, there was nothing particularly unique about Pawan Kumar Bansals maiden essay. Having raised fares a little over a month ago, he was able to spare passengers this time, but he has put in place a dynamic tariff mechanism for freight to take care of future increases in the price of fuel. This is likely to result in a 5 per cent rise in freight rates from April 1, with the promise of a half-yearly fuel price adjustment system to provide for the regular hike in diesel prices announced earlier by the government. The January 22 passenger fare revision was meant to fetch the Indian Railways Rs. 6,600 crore in additional revenue in a full year; but the recent increase in diesel prices could cost the Railways Rs. 3,300 crore in its fuel bill. The logic of dynamic tariffs, even if only for freight, can therefore hardly be faulted. On the passenger fare front, though the basic fare has not increased, the minister has raised the reservation, tatkal , supplementary, cancellation and super fast train charges marginally. With the focus on making the Railways financially sustainable, Mr. Bansal is hoping to end 2013-14 with a balance of Rs. 12,506 crore in Railway funds. A major achievement of the Railways in what has otherwise been a lacklustre year is the significant improvement in its Operating Ratio, i.e. total expenses as a percentage of revenue. Currently at 88.8 per cent, it has now been projected to reach 87.8 per cent in the coming year. Because of the slowdown in the economy last year, the Railways annual plan as well as freight loading target had to be scaled down. Against an estimated Rs. 60,100 crore plan for the current year, the Railways pruned it to just over Rs. 52,000 crore. This has been raised to Rs. 63,363 crore for the coming year and the challenge lies in achieving that. The focus of the plan seems to be on doubling of tracks, raising capacity, improving safety and significantly enhancing passenger amenities on trains and at stations. Internet ticket booking hours have been extended to allow customers to make reservations 23 hours a day. Like his predecessors, Mr. Bansal could not resist the temptation of announcing a string of new manufacturing units, 67 new express and 27 new passenger trains, in addition to a host of new lines and surveys. Of course, many if not most of these have gone to select constituencies important to the Congress party, and to electorally important States such as Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh. With general elections due in 2014, Mr. Bansal has used the budgetary means at his disposal to signal the onset of campaign season.

Old Faithful does it again

It is almost nine years since Indias Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) made its first successful flight. On Monday, this trusty rocket, with a distinctive configuration involving solid and liquid propulsion in its core stages, maintained its richly deserved reputation for rugged reliability. In the course of an unbroken chain of 22 successful launches, it has carried 27 Indian spacecraft as well as 35 foreign ones to space. It has taken earth-

viewing satellites, which typically orbit the earth from pole to pole, as well as those like the meteorological satellite, Kalpana-1, and the communication satellite, GSAT-12, that need to linger thousands of kilometres above the equator. It lofted Indias Chandrayaan1 on the first leg of its journey to the Moon. In its latest flight, the rocket's fourth stage twisted and turned very precisely to eject seven satellites, one after another, into just the right orbits. The primary payload on this occasion was the Indo-French Satellite with ARgos and ALtika (SARAL). It is equipped with an altimeter that allows sea surface height to be measured from space with greater precision than before. With sea levels rising as a result of a steadily warming climate, this satellite will join other altimeter-bearing spacecraft in ensuring continuity of observation over the oceans. A large number of Indian scientists are part of an international team that will be carrying out projects utilising the satellites data. With SARAL, the Indian Space Research Organisation has been able to demonstrate the basic structure, known in technical parlance as a bus, for a 400-kg-class satellite. The same Indian Mini Satellite (IMS) Bus series-2 will go into ADITYA-1, the Indian space agencys scientific mission to observe the Suns corona, scheduled for launch in three to four years time. There are some important missions coming up for ISRO this year. The next launch is likely to be that of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) equipped with an indigenous cryogenic stage. The first flight with that indigenous stage three years ago had ended in failure and ISRO needs to show that it has mastered this difficult technology. The first of seven satellites for the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) is scheduled to go up later this year, as also the countrys first mission to Mars. A test of the more powerful GSLV Mark-III, with a dummy cryogenic stage, too is on the cards. Many challenges lie ahead and the Indian space agency must, in the words of President Pranab Mukherjee, who witnessed the latest launch, raise the bar of its performance, scale greater heights and explore newer frontiers.

Its not prudential to bank on discretion

Following the Reserve Bank of Indias (RBI) guidelines for issuance of new bank licences, the shares of corporates like Birla, M&M, Reliance, and others surged up by eight per cent on the back of speculation that one or many of them could emerge as front runners for a coveted licence. There is good reason for such speculation. There is a major financial value attached to the licence while the selection criterion for new banks is opaque, with a high degree of discretionary decision making. This, coupled with the RBIs explicit communiqu that it can introduce further discretionary layers of qualifiers, even after the filing of applications, has led to the stock market backing a range of companies that have very little in common. In the past two decades, the RBI has licensed only 12 private banks. Of a large number of applications received, 10 banks were licensed based on the January 1993 guidelines. Of these, Times Bank, Centurion Bank, Bank of Punjab and Global Trust Bank closed shop after being merged with others. The guidelines were revised in January 2001, fresh applications invited and two more licences issued. There is no transparent record available on the RBI website to tell us why the applications of some were rejected while others were

approved and neither does a reading of the two sets of guidelines offer any clues as to what sets the successful licence holders apart from the others. Vague parameters The RBI has now released new guidelines with no indication of when the next set of banking licences will be given. It has also retained a high level of discretionary decision making presumably to ensure non-deserving corporates are screened out but which could well have the unintended consequence of triggering lobbying and horse-trading. For example, under Procedures of RBI Decisions the guidelines state, Licenses shall be issued on a very selective basis to those who conform to the above requirements, who have an impeccable track record and who are likely to conform to the best international and domestic standards of customer service and efficiency. There is no qualification of how impeccable track record will be determined or how best international and domestic standards of customer service and efficiency is defined. The applications will further be subjected to a Fit and Proper criteria described in para 2(b) which requires promoters to have a past record of sound credentials and integrity. They should be financially sound and have a successful track record of running their businesses for at least 10 years. Additionally, promoters business model and business culture should not be misaligned with the banking model . These vague parameters practically rule out any objective decision making since what is financially sound in one business such as eBay, may be totally unsound in another such as M&M. Similarly, successful track record could be defined as revenue growth, customer satisfaction, innovation, creation of shareholder value or by any additional or all of the above parameters. Even defining sound credentials is virtually impossible and guaranteed to generate dissent amongst even banking experts, especially since they are judging the applicants existing business in which there may be no experts at all. Another imponderable comes from the requirement of aligning business culture and not business with the banking model. How is culture defined and who decides whether it is aligned with banking? Will a telecom company, which has a large customer base and, therefore, experience in customer care, be more likely to get a banking licence or a petrochemicals major, which has few customers but a large turnover and varying profits? The RBI has also reserved the right under Section 4(iii) to screen the applications and then further apply additional criteria to determine the suitability of applications, in addition to fit and proper criteria. In effect, the initial criteria of Fit and Proper, which by itself is vague by design, is to be subjected to additional discretionary decision making. This implies that after applications are received, some applications may be rejected based on specific criteria which will be unknown to all those who apply by July 4, 2013 as per the RBIs invitation. Those specific criteria would carry applicants to a second round where a new set of criteria, which have not been designed or defined, could be applied. So not only are the rules of the game unknown, but they can be changed after the game has begun, a move which could easily violate at least a dozen Supreme Court judgments and fail the test of legitimate expectations and Article 14 the touchstone of Constitutional propriety. The RBI will release a list of applicants but does not indicate when the applications will be processed. However, it places a converse obligation on the successful applicant to begin

banking within one year of receiving in principle approval as per Section 4(iv) of the guidelines. Even the most basic stated public policy objective of issuing new licences to increase banking penetration and inclusivity is defined in a manner that can be negotiated, post facto bringing in further opportunities for lobbying with everyone from babus in the financial services cell and banking operations in the Finance Ministry to the RBI itself. Section (K) (vii), looking to advance the cause of inclusivity requires a new bank to have at least 25 per cent of its branches in unbanked rural centers but fails to mention by when such a huge cost exercise, which can completely alter the viability of the bank, needs to be achieved. Even the telecom licence guidelines, which according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) were manipulated by the discretionary decision making of Department of Telecommunications (DoT) officials leading to 85 ineligible applicants gaining access to spectrum, does a far better job of defining rollout in rural areas and district headquarters. On rural banking Lastly the guidelines require applicants under Section (F)(a) and (b) to submit business plans to achieve financial inclusion that should be realistic and viable. The RBI warns that a deviation at a later stage may invite penal measures including a change in management, etc. But unless the rural banking rollout is finely defined, the viability will vary in each case and it is virtually impossible to choose one application over the other, since the criteria have been kept vague in the first place. Similarly, companies can achieve financial inclusion in multiple ways mobile banking or physical spaces or linking with existing rural Non-bank financial companies (NBFC) by acquiring assets for distribution. What weightage do these get? And is a physical bank more important than technological access to banking for consumers? Would a mobile operator get higher weightage since it has millions of subscribers including rural or will a company which makes and sells tractors through one of its subsidiaries and may have a brick and mortar presence at district and rural level? And what of someone who has neither but knows how to use these extremely well? The RBI has further failed to define who would constitute high level advisory committee except as eminent persons with experience in banking, financial sector and other relevant areas. When will the committee be announced? And why, as the RBI claims, should the committee set up its own procedures for screening applications? Shouldnt these criteria be made known to the applicants beforehand to meet the very basic tenets of transparency and good governance? The guidelines proudly announce that RBI decision in this regard will be final. Not true since any government decision is open to judicial scrutiny, even if the decision is approved by the Cabinet, leave alone the high level advisory committee. And what of influence peddling by lobbying corporates, former bureaucrats (looking to be incorporated as independent board members) and other political influence peddlers in an election year? The RBIs decision could well be final, but would it be transparent and well defined? Coming in the backdrop of the 2G spectrum scam, which was the outcome of a clearly stated and far more detailed set of guidelines than what the RBI has released after three

years of consultation, one can only infer that the central bank has either learnt nothing from the unfolding and explosive governance challenges in India or it somehow believes that its reputation and influence over large corporates through the banking relationships that it oversees will force unsuccessful applicants to remain silent even if they have been dealt with unjustly. Even if banking licences are not a scarce natural resource, the limited numbers attach a massive financial value to the permission to operate. There is, therefore, every reason for corporates to exploit those portions of the decision-making procedure that are open to discretion, influence and interpretation. shalini.s@thehindu.co.in The RBIs licensing guidelines for private banks may open the door to influence peddling and corporate lobbying

Jubilation at Indus win is premature

In his article in The Hindu , John Briscoe makes some valid points about the Kishenganga Award (editorial page, Winning the battle, but losing the war, February 22, 2013) but we need to note certain complexities, and a central dilemma arising from the Treaty. Yes, India wins on point (1) [Whether Indias proposed diversion of the Kishenganga (Neelum) into the Bonar Madmati Nallah, being one central element of the Kishenganga Project, breaches Indias legal obligations owed to Pakistan under the Treaty, as interpreted and applied in accordance with international law, including Indias obligations under Article III (2) and Article IV (6)? the First Dispute], as was to be expected, and yes, Pakistan has won on point (2) [Whether under the Treaty, India may deplete or bring the reservoir level of a run-of-river Plant below Dead Storage Level in any circumstances except in the case of an unforeseen emergency? the Second Dispute], but this needs to be gone into further. At the outset it must be mentioned that the Award is an interim or partial one; the final award will come later. Jubilation at having won on the issue of diversion of waters is premature. We have to wait and see what stipulations the final award makes, and what implications they may have for the extent of diversion and the capacity of the power plant. However, the decision that there is no violation of the Treaty and that the project may proceed is certainly a matter for satisfaction to India. Pakistan must have known that with a specific provision in the Treaty envisaging intertributary transfers on the Jhelum, their contention that Kishenganga was a violation of the Treaty was unlikely to be upheld. Why then did they take this project to arbitration? The answer is that the second issue, i.e., drawdown flushing (arising from the Baglihar case), was much more important to them. They were dismayed by the Neutral Experts (NE) recommendation on this matter, but the Treaty provided for no appeal against the NEs findings, and they could not ask for a Court of Arbitration (CoA) on that issue in the Baglihar case; they therefore used the Kishenganga case to mount an indirect appeal against the idea of drawdown flushing. They have succeeded. Drawdown flushing Let us now get to the complexities. First, a purely technical point: the arbitration in each case is sui generis . The finding or award in one case applies only to the difference or dispute in

that case. However, as it would be absurd to adopt divergent principles in different cases, the decision in one case will tend to become a precedent for others. At the same time, while the Kishenganga decision on drawdown flushing will need to be kept in mind in all future cases, does it retrospectively nullify the NEs finding in the Baglihar case, though the Treaty does not provide for an appeal against that finding? Strictly speaking, it cannot, but it seems a bit odd to adopt a certain practice in Baglihar and refrain from it in future cases. I leave the conundrum to legal experts. What are the implications of ruling out drawdown flushing? To answer this, we must go back to the Salal Project. That case did not go to arbitration but was settled by mutual agreement between the two governments. The condition stipulated by Pakistan for agreeing to the project was that the low-level sluices should be permanently blocked. India accepted this, and this has meant the trapping of the silt in the reservoir, leading to severe turbine maintenance problems, and a reduction of generation capacity and of project life. India was therefore happy that the NE in the Baglihar case recognised the importance of proper maintenance of the project, including the flushing of the reservoir to get rid of sediment. This seemed to go against the Treaty provision that forbids outlets below the dead storage level, but the NE observed that while the dead storage could not be used for operational purposes, it could be used for maintenance purposes. This caused dismay in Pakistan and they referred the issue to the CoA. Now the CoA has given a ruling which means that the problems that crippled Salal will cripple all future projects, unless alternative methods of sediment-removal are found. This is what the CoA has said, and Indian engineers will have to find answers. One hopes that there are indeed answers. It is difficult to believe that the Treaty envisaged that a project would be constructed at great cost and then allowed to silt up rapidly and suffer a drastic reduction in project life. It must be noted that the Treaty makes its prescription of no outlets below the dead storage level subject to the proviso unless sediment control or other technical considerations necessitate this. One wonders whether the CoA gave due weight to that proviso. I referred to a dilemma arising from the Treaty. It is the following. While allowing India limited use of the waters of the western rivers, including the construction of run-of-the river hydroelectric projects, the Treaty imposes stringent engineering and operational conditions on such use for the purpose of protecting Pakistan from possible harm. Each such condition and restriction in the Treaty is accompanied by the proviso consistent with sound and economical design and satisfactory construction and operation. That kind of balancing act is easy enough to write into a Treaty but problematic in practice. This leads to a permanent tug of war in the Indus Commission, with India stressing the permissive provisions and the proviso mentioned above, and Pakistan taking its stand on the restrictive provisions and ignoring that proviso. Here then is the dilemma. If the proviso is read too liberally, then the protection to Pakistan might get compromised; if the stringent provisions are insisted upon in an absolute manner, ignoring the proviso, then the permission given to India to build hydroelectric projects gets virtually nullified. If we say go ahead and build projects but dont flush the reservoir; accept the possibility of unsatisfactory operation we are virtually saying Dont build projects, which is a departure from the Treaty. Briscoes suggestion of joint and collaborative undertakings is welcome, but given the state of relations between the two countries, they seem highly improbable. If that sort of

cooperation is possible, what prevents the existing Treaty itself from being operated in a constructive, harmonious spirit? I have myself been making more modest proposals of joint studies to take care of certain concerns of Pakistan, but I wonder whether they will happen. We must of course keep trying. (Ramaswamy R. Iyer is a former Secretary, Water Resources, Government of India.)

A realistic assessment
The Economic Survey is integral to the budget process, bringing out the economic trends in the country on the eve of the budget presentation. This facilitates a better appreciation of resource mobilisation and allocation in the budget. If the Survey is a dissertation on the economy from a purely economic perspective, the budget is largely a political response to the economic issues it outlines. The difference is crucial and explains why so often in the recent past there has been such a wide disconnect between the two. On a few occasions, the Surveys have been more akin to visionary statements, outlining desirable but impractical goals. The latest Survey, fortunately, neither exaggerates nor downplays the causes and consequences of the current economic problems. The slowdown, characterised by low growth and high inflation, is rooted in domestic as well as external causes. During the two years 2009-10 and 2010-11, the post-crisis stimulus led to strong growth and boosted consumption. That, along with supply side constraints, led to higher inflation which, in turn, produced monetary tightening and sharply lower growth. The two obvious policy measures to regain a higher growth trajectory are, therefore, a softening of monetary policy and the easing of supply bottlenecks, especially relating to infrastructure. Positing a bottoming out of the economy, the Survey optimistically predicts a growth rate of between 6.1 and 6.7 per cent during 2013-14, sharply higher than the 5 per cent during this year. It says headline inflation will fall to between 6.2 and 6.6 per cent by the end of next month. There are, however, good reasons why we may not meet those targets. Since growth is strongly correlated with investment, it is necessary to bridge the savings-investment gap which rose to minus 4.2 per cent of GDP at the end of last year. With savings by the government and private sector shrinking, the current account deficit i.e. the investment that cannot be financed by domestic savings and has to be financed from abroad widened. Together, the CAD and fiscal deficit threaten macroeconomic stability and are sure to figure high up in the budgets list of prime concerns. The Surveys suggestions for reining in subsidies are not new. It has emphasised the need for better targeting and reduced leakages in their delivery. These are areas which the Finance Minister will most likely address. Also certain are allocations to support the National Food Security legislation, a major socioeconomic and indeed political initiative of the government in the run up to the next general election. Although the subsidy outgo might go up, the Survey is absolutely right when it calls for this important scheme to be supported.