Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413 www.elsevier.

com/locate/jlp

Dangerous good transportation by road: from risk analysis to emergency planning

` , A.P. Reverberi, R. Pastorino B. Fabiano*, F. Curro
DIChePChemical and Process Engineering Department, G.B. Bonino, University of Genoa, Via Opera Pia, 15-16145 Genoa, Italy

Abstract Despite the relative recent move towards inherent safe materials, the relentless drive of consumerism requires increased quantities of dangerous goods to be manufactured, transported, stored and used year on year. The safety and effectiveness of road transport systems is to be considered a strategic goal in particular in those countries, like Italy, in which 80% of goods are transported by this means. In this paper, we face the risk from dangerous good transport by presenting a site-oriented framework for risk assessment and developing a theoretical approach for emergency planning and optimisation. In the rst step, we collected eld data on a pilot highway and developed a database useful to allow a realistic evaluation of the accident frequency on a given route, by means of multivariate statistical analysis. To this end, we considered both inherent factors (such as tunnels, bend radii, height gradient, slope etc), meteorological factors, and trafc factors (trafc frequency of tank truck, dangerous good truck etc.) suitable to modify the standard national accident frequency. By applying the results to a pilot area, referring to ammable and explosive scenarios, we performed a risk assessment sensitive to route features and population exposed. The results show that the risk associated to the transport of hazardous materials, in some highway stretches, can be at the boundary of the acceptability level of risk set down by the well known F/N curves established in the Netherlands. On this basis, in the subsequent step, we developed a theoretical approach, based on the graph theory, to plan optimal emergency actions. The effectiveness of an emergency planning can normally be evaluated in term of system quickness and reliability. As a case study, we applied the developed approach to identify optimal consistency and localisation in the pilot area of prompt action vehicles, properly equipped, quick to move and ready for every eventuality. Applying this method results in an unambiguous and consistent selection criterion that allows reduction of intervention time, in connection with technical and economic optimisation of emergency equipment. q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Accident frequency; Hazardous materials; Emergency; Transportation

1. Introduction Despite the relative recent move towards inherent safe materials, the relentless drive of consumerism has required increased quantities of dangerous goods to be manufactured, transported, stored and used year on year (Thomson, 1998). Of the different way of transportation, rail has higher damage potential, as larger quantities are transported by this means. However, considering the damage it may cause to life and properties, transport by road is more hazardous, as roads often pass through populated areas, especially in developing countries. The recent EEC Directive 96/82/EC

* Corresponding author. Tel.: C39 010 3532585; fax: C39 010 3532586. E-mail address: brown@unige.it (B. Fabiano).

0950-4230/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2005.06.031

implies the evaluation of risk in highly industrialised areas by means of Quantitative Area Risk Analysis techniques. It must be evidenced that certain dangerous substances are transported along particular Italian road routes in quantities that would exceed the threshold for safety notication or declaration, set down in Italy by Seveso II Directive, if stored in a xed installation. On the other side, it must be remembered that EEC Directive 94/55/EC implies the harmonisation of the different national legislation on transport of hazardous materials by road. The safety and efciency of road transport is to be considered a strategic goal in particular in those countries, like Italy, in which about 80% of goods is transported by this means, with a 30% increase with reference to the 2010 forecast. In particular, Italian highways are very crowded with trucks, considering that 17% of the whole good trafc by road of EU (15 Countries) is transported on these highways. Moreover, the number of cars is still steadily increasing,

404

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

making a place on the road increasingly a scarce commodity. Empirical evidence shows that though improvement in transport safety, in Italy a consistent number of serious accidents on motorways and highways keeps occurring, evidencing that the risk connected to dangerous goods transport is comparable with the xed plants one. Analysis of the risks presented by the transportation of hazardous materials presents a very different risk than a xed facility: detailed information on shipments is not available on a national, regional, or local level in contrast with xed facility inventories (Pine & Marx, 1997). As reported by different researchers, a specically tailored QRA methodology can represent an effective tool to assess the risk to people associated with the transport of dangerous substance. The selection of the best route for transport has been widely investigated (List, Mirchandani, Turnquist, & Zografos, 1991) and was recently formulated as a minimum cost ow problem, which consists of determining, for a specic hazardous substance, the cheapest ow distribution, honouring the arc capacities, from the origin to the destination vertices (Leonelli, Bonvicini, & Spadoni, 2000). Poor appreciation of factors related to road conditions such as road class, designated speed limits, trafc density, as well as of the population characteristics, is likely to result in a risk assessment insensitive to route specics and over- or under-estimating the overall level of risk (Davies, 1999). In this paper, a site-oriented risk analysis procedure is tested in a pilot area, starting from an in-depth inventory of hazardous materials transported and from a statistical analysis of trafc and accidents observed in the area. In fact, it must be observed that to ensure that a local emergency plan is complete, it must take into account the nature and extent hazardous materials are transported by road in the area. The results are then discussed and a mathematical model for optimising emergency planning is presented. A main focus in the management of emergencies has been on resources and logistics; in other words, having what and who you need it to meet the crisis within an urgent time frame (Kowalski, 1995). The importance of the ability of the emergency response services to minimize the damage was recently highlighted by a pilot project carried out in the Netherlands, where the evaluation method of external safety risk included three new criteria, additional to individual risk and societal risk (Wiersma & Molag, 2004): self-rescue i.e. the ability of the people in the vicinity of the accident to safe themselves; controllability i.e. emergency response services; consequences i.e. analysis of representative scenarios in terms of number of fatalities, injuries and material damage. The criterion of controllability is focused on the ability of the emergency response services to minimize the magnitude

and to prevent escalation of the accident. In case of accident in hazmat transportation and subsequent release into the environment, it is very important to have at ones disposal information on each chemical hazardous product involved, trained and skilful personnel and suitable prompt action vehicles, properly equipped to be employed if the above mentioned hazardous release would happen. To this end, in the last phase of this paper, the optimisation algorithm is developed for solving the problem of optimal location of emergency vehicles in the pilot area.

2. Theoretical structure 2.1. Transportation risk analysis Generally speaking, the concept of risk is the relation between frequency and the number of people suffering from a specied level of harm in a given population from the realization of specied hazards (Vrijling, Van Hengel, & Houben, 1995). The model required for our purposes is focused on a proper evaluation of the expected frequency of accidents. If the route is divided into road stretches, each characterized by different characteristics, the expected number of fatalities as consequence of an accident occurred on the road stretch r and evolving according to a scenario S, can be expressed as: X Dr Z fr Nr;S PS (1)
S

where: fr frequency of accident in the rth road stretch [accident yearK1] Nr,S number of fatalities caused by the accident evolving according to a scenario S in the rth road stretch [fatalities accidentK1] PS probability of evolving scenarios of type S, following the accident initialiser (i.e. collision; roll-over; failure etc.) [] Transportation network can be considered as a number of vertices linked one another by a number of arcs. As shown in the following paragraph, the vertices represent origindestination points, tool-gates, storage areas on the transportation network and the arcs are the roads connecting vertices. An arc between two vertices is characterized by a different number of road stretches and the expected number of fatalities for the arc is: XX DZ fr Nr;S PS (2)
r S

where Nr,S is the total number of fatalities according to Eq. (3):

off Nr;S Z Ain S kv C AS dP PF;S

(3)

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

405

being the in-road and the off-road number of fatalities calculated respectively as:
in in Nr ;S Z AS kvPF;S off Nr ;S

Table 1 Local enhancing and mitigating parameters Parameter Intrinsic characteristics h1 Straight road Road bend (radiusO200 m) Road bend (radius!200 m) Plane road Slope road (gradient!5%) Steep slope road (gradientO5%) Downhill road (gradient!5%) Steep downhill road (gradientO5%) Two lanes for each carriageway Two lanes and emergency lane for each carriageway Three lanes and emergency lane for each carriageway Well lighted straight tunnel Other tunnels Bridge Fine weather Rain Heavy rain Fog Snow/ice Low intensity!500 vehicle/h Medium intensity!1250 vehicle/h with heavy trafc!125 truck/day High intensityO1250 vehicle/h High intensityO1250 vehicle/h with heavy trafcO250 truck/day

(4) (5)

Z Aoff S dP PF;S

where: Ain S consequence in-road area associated with scenario S [m2] off AS consequence off-road area associated with scenario S [km2] PF,S probability of fatality for accident scenario S [] k average vehicle occupation factor [] v vehicle density on the road area [vehicle mK2] dP population density [inhabitants kmK2] The frequency of an accident involving a scenario S, on the r-th road stretch, can be expressed as: f r ; S Z f r PS fr Z gr Lr nr gr Z g0;r where: gr expected frequency on r th road stretch [accident kmK1 vehicleK1 yearK1] Lr road length [km] nr number of vehicles [vehicle] g0,r national accident frequency [accident kmK1 vehicleK1 yearK1] hj local enhancing/mitigating parameters [] As is well known, various factors inuence the accidents: mechanical, environmental, behavioural, physical, road intrinsic descriptors. A statistical multivariate analysis was performed, by comparing historical accident data related to the whole regional highways and data directly collected on the eld on each stretch, in order to highlight relevant intrinsic road factors and meteorological, trafc conditions ` , Palazzi & Pastorino, 2002). etc. (Fabiano, Curro Table 1 shows the parameters suitable to inuence accident rates and grouped into three categories: intrinsic characteristics, meteorological conditions and trafc conditions. The values of the parameters are in the range 0.82.5. 2.2. Emergency planning The effectiveness of an action aimed at facing an emergency situation can normally be evaluated in terms of systems quickness and reliability. To approach the optimisation problem we adopted the graph-theory, recently introduced by Beroggi and Wallace (1994) in computing optimal course of action for emergency
6 Y jZ1

h2

h3

h4

Meteor. cond.

h5

(6) (7) hj (8)

Trafc charact. h6

response. Generally speaking, a linear graph may be dened as a set N of objects named vertices Vi (iZ1,.,n) and a set A of arcs linking couples of vertices (Vi,Vj). In details, a graph is a couple G(N,A) where NZ[V1,.,n] is a set of vertices and A Z ai;j Z Vi ; Vj jVi ; Vj 2 N is a class of elements called arcs. Between two vertices, several oriented arcs may exist: the maximum number of the same oriented arcs between two vertices is called P and the graph is a P-graph. The set of vertices N can be run according to different ways: as tail, leading to the research in breadth (breadth-rst), or as a pile, leading to research in depth (depth-rst) or backtracking (Tarjan, 1972). In order to solve the minimum intervention time problem, a label d(i) is assigned to every vertex Vi, dening the path between vertices and a pointer pred(i), which shows the predecessor of Vi in the considered path. The sequence starts from a temporary value for d(i) which has to be modied, by iteration, as to reach the right value. After a comparative survey on various shortest path algorithms (Dreyfus, 1969) we considered the Dijkstra algorithm (Dijkstra, 1959) of label setting, as follows: 1. d(s)Z0; d(i)Zx; pred(i)Zs; 2. d(h)Zmin[d(i)/d(i) not exact]; d(h) becomes exact; 3. if Vi2A(h) and di not exact, d(i)Zmin[d(i),d(h)Cc]; eventually pred(i)Zh; 4. if every value d(i) is exact, then stop, if not go to 2.

406

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

3.1. Data collection and analysis The value of trafc and accidents for the four highways in the area are shown in Table 2. In particular, it can be noticed that A7 highway is characterized by values higher at least an order of magnitude than the accident frequency (6.0!10K8) calculated by other researchers for certain type of load threatening accidents (James, 1986), thus approaching the calculated values for urban road. By considering the daily ADR trafc on the different highway sections, it results that the higher values of dangerous goods uxes correspond to the intersection between the highways A10 (West riviera) and A12 (East riviera), in the stretch between the towns of Bolzaneto and Busalla and in the starting stretch, from the central port of Genoa (Genova Ovest toll-gate) to the connection between the highways A10 and A7. The substances transported are shown in Fig. 3: it is important to notice the high striking transport percentages of chlorine and ethylene oxide. The immediate causes of accident are summed up in Fig. 4. The proportion of severe accidents on these highways during the years 19951999 is in the range 6070% of the total accidents, dening a severe incident as one involving death, serious injuries, a re or explosion, or more than EUR 25000 worth of damage. 3.2. Modelling In order to obtain a correct evaluation of the density of the population which might be exposed to Hazmat hazards from transport, it is necessary to include data on the population density along the route and on the so-called motorist density, taking into account, as well, the proportion which may be considered particularly vulnerable or protected. Otherwise, all individuals within a threshold distance from road stretches run the same risks regardless of their location. The population density along a route segment can vary with time, such as from day to night, and from month to month. The average density on the route can be calculated starting from the collected statistical data relevant to average daily trafc, average speed and geometrical data of carriageway and lanes, in each highway stretch considered. Also on-road population can vary during the day: in order to evaluate correctly the number of on-road population involved in the accident, the response and the variations in the motorist density as a consequence of an accident, were considered. Two classes of motorist density are to be considered: the former refers to the carriageway, where the accident occurs, the latter considers the opposite carriageway, were the ghoul effect causes the slowing down of the trafc.

Fig. 1. Modied Dijkstra algorithm.

We developed the optimisation algorithm as schematised in Fig. 1. Every vertex corresponds to a toll gate, a re brigade station or to a storage area and the algorithm allots the exact value for d(i) at the last iteration for every vertex.

3. Case-study The methodology previously presented was applied to a pilot area, referring to the routes starting from the Genoa port area (the most important in the Mediterranean basin) towards four direction: the industrialized North Italian and Central Europe districts, France and South of Italy (Fig. 2). All of these highways are characterized by high truck trafc (mainly ADR) and inherent factors (ascribed to road out-of-date: the year of construction of A7 is 1935) determining to a major accident risk, with reference to both individual and social risk, dened according to the Dutch limits.

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

407

Fig. 2. Pilot area.

In order to evaluate the probability of death in the area involved, the consequence model was applied making reference to event trees for every type of accident consequence: pool re, ash re, jet re, BLEVE, re ball, UVCE, release of toxic substances. Average individual risk, dened as the frequency at which an individual may be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the realization of a specic hazard (Dantzig & Kriens, 1960), has been determined averaging the estimating individual risk levels for all the individuals in the selected area, as above-described. For individual risk, we considered the upper acceptability criterion set down in
Table 2 Daily trafc and accident frequency Highway Daily trafc [n] Length [km] A26 A12 A10 A7 A7-Stretch 1 A7-Stretch 2 A7-Stretch 3 A7-Stretch 4 A7-Stretch 5 A7-Stretch 6 A7-Stretch 7 83.7 48.7 45.5 50.0 1.9 3 2.9 14.3 5 5.8 6.6 Total 34946 52105 55025 33721 30075 31620 27758 15476 12289 12042 11823 Heavy vehicle 7172 8139 9190 6353 6123 6235 5134 3250 2768 2746 2512

the Netherlands in new situations or new developments, corresponding to 10K6 yearK1. The same technique was secondly adopted for the evaluation of societal risk. Societal risk analysis can lead, via the generation of expectation values (average number of lives lost) to the consideration of the need for, and cost benet, of risk reduction measures, even if it involves many generalising assumptions and averaging (Purdy, 1993). In all concepts, the most stringent of the personally and the socially acceptable level of risk determines the acceptable level of risk. So both criteria have to be satised (Vrijling et al., 1995). The same acceptability criterion for individual

Accident per km per 10 millions of vehicles Light vehicle 27774 43966 45835 27368 23952 25385 22624 12226 9521 9296 9311 Total 6.29 5.16 6.06 9.83 8.63 4.04 6.47 6.56 13.4 7.45 4.56 Heavy vehicle 6.63 5.22 7.20 9.92 11.77 7.32 11.04 7.66 17.82 6.88 6.61 Light vehicle 4.97 4.84 6.95 9.81 7.83 3.24 5.43 6.27 12.09 7.62 4.01

408

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

Fig. 3. Inventory of hazardous material trafc.

and societal risk was considered by Alp and Eelensky (1996), in developing a rigorous mathematical platform on which risk assessment can be built. It must be evidenced that the societal acceptable risk criterion is not standardized in the different EU Countries. So, in the absence of a national statistical reference, we adopted again the F/N limit curves established in the Netherlands, dividing as well the so-called Alarp region into two bands: the acceptability criterion of the risk so modied is explained in Table 3, where P is the cumulative frequency per year and N the number of fatalities ger, 2002). (Hj & Kro The results of the risk evaluation for the pilot area are summarized in Fig. 5.

To reduce intervention time, the localization of prompt action vehicles must found on scientic statement, as previously explained, taking into consideration the concept of minimum pathway. The main constraint the theoretical approach is based upon is that the emergency vehicle can not be placed in any site of the concerned provincial territory, but only in the Fire Brigades Central Department or in one of the six detachment. Central Department and the six detachments are to be considered as vertices in the nal graph, which will solve the problem. In the same way, it is possible to indicate the hazardous areas, where production, transformation and hazardous substances storage take place, as vertices of the nal

Fig. 4. Immediate causes of accident.

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413 Table 3 Acceptability criterion of the risk Evaluation of the risk Acceptable risk Tolerability region A Tolerability region B Unacceptable risk Criterion P!(10 /N ) (10K5/N2)!P!(10K4/N2) (10K4/N2)!P!(10K3/N2) PO(10K3/N2)
K5 2

409

Explanation No need for detailed studies. Check that risk maintains at this level Tolerable risk if cost of reduction would exceed the improvements gained Tolerable only if risk reduction is impracticable or if its cost is grossly in disproportion to the improvement gained Risk intolerable: risk cannot be justied even in extraordinary circumstances

graph. To complete the construction of the nal graph, it was necessary to take into consideration highly hazardous areas along the highway. We considered as vertices of the graph inlet and outlet toll-gates, re brigade districts and central department, as well as production, transformation and storage sites of dangerous substances. The obtained nal graph is depicted in Fig. 6. The arcs, which link vertices together, represents normal way and highway units, between all areas taken into consideration. In order to evaluate the considered graph, we allotted to each arc a corresponding scalar, dened cost of the arc. This scalar value corresponds to a time: the Average Run Time (in minutes) needed to reach from a vertex the subsequent one. Time was calculated considering distances between vertices and assuming two average speeds: 80 km hK1 as highway speed and 30 km hK1 as urban speed.

4. Results and discussion The results of transport risk analysis in the area show that the risk associated with the transport of hazardous materials on the highways considered, in a number of stretches (Fig. 5), is at the limit of the acceptable level of risk set down according to the criterion schematised in Table 3 and previously discussed. The results are similar to those reported by Milazzo et al. (2002) who presented risk analysis in an urban area, where ammable substances were prevalent in road transportation. They concluded that overall societal risk was not acceptable on the basis of the Dutch risk criteria and that the risk associated with the road transportation is higher for N!20, while the risk associated with railway transportation become dominant for NO20. On these bases, strategies for the reduction of risks and emergency management in the area must be developed. As a rst approach, the opportunity of limiting hazardous

Fig. 5. Risk characterization in the different highways stretches.

410

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

Fig. 6. Final graph.

materials travelling during particular time bands must be considered. As an example, about 53% of ADR trafc is focused in the time interval 8 a.m.1 p.m. A second strategic opportunity consists in imposing a different highway route for hazardous materials transport. For example, an alternative route from Genoa to Milan is represented by A26 highway, from Genoa Voltri towards Alessandria: this highway, being more recent and characterized by lower intrinsic risk factors, could gather also the trafc from East and Genoa central port. However, the practical utilization of this option is made difcult by the need of crossing a long urban stretch, characterized by high risk level (as depicted in Fig. 5). A solution for risk reduction is therefore the construction of a slip road connecting Genoa central port and highway A26, even if the feasibility of this option is obviously constrained by economical and environmental impact issues. Therefore a risk reduction could pass through a redenition of the
Table 4 Summary of the results (one prompt action vehicle) Vertex Distance from 1 Forerunner [.] Distance from 28 Forerunner [.] 1 0 0 66 2 2 13 1 53 3 3 22 2 44 4 4 31 3 35 8 5 40 4 44 4 6 44 5 48 5

transportation network and in dening proper emergency plans. Table 4 depicts a selection of the complete ow sheet reporting the vertices and the costs of the arcs. In the rst row are indicated all 36 vertices of the graph. In the following rows, are reported the distances of each vertex from the other ones and respective forerunner, corresponding to the cost of the arc. From Table 4, we can notice that the route stretching from vertex 1 to vertex 4 and including vertices 2 and 3 has a total cost of 31 min. In the same way, vertex 36 is distant from vertex 1 130 min, according to the considered route. By applying the method to the whole transportation network, it is possible to know all distances (in minutes) of each vertex 1, 2, 3, ., 36 from all the other 36 vertices. In column B it is indicated maximum time needed to reach, from a vertex, all the other ones. For example, vertex 1 is distant from all the other vertices 130 min as a

7 44 5 48 5

[.]

33 105 32 39 32

34 114 33 48 33

35 115 34 49 34

36 130 34 64 34

A 130 34 67 34

B 130

67

Table 5 Summary of the results (several prompt action vehicle)

Vertex Dist. from 10 Forerunner Dist from 13 Forerunner Dist from 15 Forerunner Dist from 21 Forerunner Dist from 26 Forerunner Dist from 31 Forerunner Dist from 32 Forerunner Min 1013 Min 1015 Min 1021 Min 1026 Min 1031 Min 1032 Min 1315 Min 1321 Min 1326 Min 1331 Min 1332 Min 1521 Min 1526 Min 1531 Min 1532 Min 2126 Min 2131 Min 2132 Min 2631 Min 2632 Min 3132 Min 102132 Min 101315 21263132 1 41 2 53 2 61 2 81 2 57 2 88 2 101 2 41 41 41 41 41 41 53 53 53 53 53 61 57 61 61 57 81 81 57 57 88 41 41 2 28 3 40 3 48 3 68 3 44 3 75 3 88 3 28 28 28 28 28 28 40 40 40 40 40 48 44 48 48 44 68 68 44 44 75 28 28 3 19 4 31 4 39 4 59 4 35 4 66 4 79 4 19 19 19 19 19 19 31 31 31 31 31 39 35 39 39 35 59 59 35 35 66 19 19 4 10 8 22 8 30 8 50 8 29 8 57 8 70 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 22 22 22 22 22 30 26 30 30 26 50 50 26 26 57 10 10 5 19 4 31 4 39 4 59 4 35 4 66 4 79 4 19 19 19 19 19 19 31 31 31 31 31 39 35 39 39 35 59 59 35 35 66 19 19 6 23 5 35 5 43 5 63 5 39 5 70 5 83 5 23 23 23 23 23 23 35 35 35 35 35 43 39 43 43 39 63 63 39 39 70 23 23 7 23 5 35 5 43 5 63 5 39 5 70 5 83 5 23 23 23 23 23 23 35 35 35 35 35 43 39 43 43 39 63 63 39 39 70 23 23 8 7 10 19 10 27 10 47 10 23 10 54 10 67 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 19 19 19 19 19 27 23 27 27 23 47 47 23 23 54 7 7 9 9 8 21 8 29 8 49 8 25 8 56 8 69 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 21 21 21 21 21 29 25 29 29 25 49 49 25 25 56 9 9 10 0 0 12 12 20 12 40 12 16 12 47 12 60 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 12 12 12 12 20 16 20 20 16 40 40 16 16 47 0 0 11 2 10 14 10 22 10 42 10 18 10 49 10 62 10 2 2 2 2 2 2 14 14 14 14 14 22 18 22 22 18 42 42 18 18 49 2 2 12 5 10 7 13 15 15 35 15 11 26 42 26 55 26 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 15 11 15 15 11 35 35 11 11 42 5 5 13 12 12 0 0 10 15 30 15 10 26 41 26 54 26 0 10 12 10 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 30 30 10 10 41 12 0 14 14 13 2 13 12 13 32 13 12 13 43 13 56 13 2 12 14 12 14 14 2 2 2 2 2 12 12 12 12 12 32 32 12 12 43 14 2 15 20 12 10 13 0 0 20 20 8 26 39 26 52 26 10 0 20 8 20 20 0 10 8 10 10 0 0 0 0 8 20 20 8 8 39 20 0 16 23 15 13 15 3 15 23 15 11 15 42 15 55 15 13 3 23 11 23 23 3 13 11 13 13 3 3 3 3 11 23 23 11 11 42 23 3 17 22 15 12 15 2 15 22 15 10 15 41 15 54 15 12 2 22 10 22 22 2 12 10 12 12 2 2 2 2 10 22 22 10 10 41 22 2 18 22 15 12 15 2 15 22 15 10 15 41 15 54 15 12 2 22 10 22 22 2 12 10 12 12 2 2 2 2 10 22 22 10 10 41 22 2 19 25 18 15 18 5 18 25 18 13 18 44 18 57 18 15 5 25 13 25 25 5 15 13 15 15 5 5 5 5 13 25 25 13 13 44 25 5 20 29 15 19 15 9 15 11 21 17 15 48 15 61 15 19 9 11 17 29 29 9 11 17 19 19 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 17 17 48 11 9 21 40 20 30 20 20 20 0 0 28 20 59 20 72 20 30 20 0 28 40 40 20 0 28 30 30 0 20 20 20 0 0 0 28 28 59 0 0 22 41 21 31 21 21 21 1 21 29 21 60 21 73 21 31 21 1 29 41 41 21 1 29 31 31 1 21 21 21 1 1 1 29 29 60 1 1 23 47 21 37 21 27 21 7 21 35 21 66 21 79 21 37 27 7 35 47 47 27 7 35 37 37 7 27 27 27 7 7 7 35 35 66 7 7 24 54 23 44 23 34 23 14 23 42 23 73 23 86 23 44 34 14 42 54 54 34 14 42 44 44 14 34 34 34 14 14 14 42 42 73 14 14 25 26 70 24 60 24 50 24 30 24 58 24 59 24 102 24 60 50 30 58 70 70 50 30 58 60 60 30 50 50 50 30 30 30 58 58 59 30 30 16 12 10 13 8 15 28 15 0 0 31 28 44 28 10 8 16 0 16 16 8 10 0 10 10 8 0 8 8 0 28 28 0 0 31 16 0 27 17 26 11 26 9 26 29 26 1 26 32 26 45 26 11 9 17 1 17 17 9 11 1 11 11 9 1 9 9 1 29 29 1 1 32 17 1 28 25 26 19 26 17 26 37 26 9 26 22 29 35 29 19 17 25 9 22 25 17 19 9 19 19 17 9 17 17 9 22 35 9 9 22 25 9 29 40 28 34 28 32 28 52 28 24 28 7 31 20 31 34 32 40 24 7 20 32 34 24 7 20 32 24 7 20 24 7 20 7 20 7 20 7 30 41 29 35 29 33 29 53 29 25 29 8 29 21 29 35 33 41 25 8 21 33 35 25 8 21 33 25 8 21 25 8 21 8 21 8 21 8 31 47 29 41 29 39 29 59 29 31 29 0 0 13 32 41 39 47 31 0 13 39 41 31 0 13 39 31 0 13 31 0 13 0 13 0 13 0 32 60 31 54 31 52 31 72 31 44 31 13 31 0 0 54 52 60 44 13 0 52 54 44 13 0 52 44 13 0 44 13 0 13 0 0 0 0 33 64 32 58 32 56 32 76 32 48 32 17 32 4 32 58 56 64 48 17 4 56 58 48 17 4 56 48 17 4 48 17 4 17 4 4 4 4 34 73 33 67 33 65 33 85 33 57 33 26 33 13 33 67 65 73 57 26 13 65 67 57 26 13 65 57 26 13 57 26 13 26 13 13 13 13 35 74 34 68 34 66 34 86 34 58 34 27 34 14 34 68 66 74 58 27 14 66 68 58 27 14 66 58 27 14 58 27 14 27 14 14 14 14 36 89 34 83 34 81 34 101 34 73 34 42 34 29 34 83 81 89 73 42 29 81 83 73 42 29 81 73 42 29 73 42 29 42 29 29 29 29 83 81 89 73 70 70 81 83 73 60 60 81 73 61 61 73 81 81 58 58 89 41 41 A

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413 411

412

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413

maximum. It means that, starting from vertex 1, it is possible to reach vertex 36 (the further one from vertex 1) in a maximum time of 130 min. All other vertices can be reached in a shorter time. Moreover, starting from vertex 28, it is possible to reach all the other vertices in a maximum time of 67 min. From the nal graph, we can observe that vertex 28 corresponds to Nervi Highway toll-gate. It is obvious that if the prompt action vehicle is located near vertex 28, it will be able to reach all the other vertices corresponding to hazardous areas, in a maximum time of 67 min, representing, under this constraint, the minimum intervention time. Of course, the prompt action vehicle has to be placed inside the Fire Brigades Central Station or in one of the six Provincial District. Let us now take into consideration the option of two prompt action vehicles: also in this case they are to be placed inside the Fire Brigades Central Station or in one of the six Provincial District. From the elaboration (Table 5 being a selection of this example), it results that the prompt action vehicles can be placed in vertices: 1013 1015 1021 1026 1031 1032 1315 1321 1326 1331 1332 1521 1526 1531 1532 2126 2131 2132 2632 631 3132

communication, plus knowledgeable and decisive leaders (Kowalski, 1995).

5. Conclusions The risk from transporting dangerous goods by road and the strategies proposed to select road load/routes are faced in this paper, by developing a site-oriented framework sensitive to route specics and population exposed. The results of the risk evaluation evidenced some critical situations of the road transportation network in those highway stretches crossing urban areas and starting from Genoa port. Strategies for the reduction of risks may include distribution and limitation of ADR road trafc, improvement of highway section, alternative routes and appropriate emergency management. Considering this last issue, an optimisation algorithm, based on the graph theory was developed to select optimal consistency and localisation in the area of prompt action vehicles, properly equipped, quick to move and ready for every eventuality. Applying this method results in an unambiguous and consistent selection criterion that allows reduction of intervention time (41 min maximum), in connection with technical and economic optimisation of emergency equipment (three vehicles).

If we place the two vehicles in vertices 15 and 31, vertex 1 can be reached, starting from vertex 15, in 61 min and starting from vertex 31, in 88 min. In order to reduce action time to reach vertex 1, it is convenient to start from vertex 15. The same logic must be followed for every vertex of the nal graph. In the end, placing the two prompt action vehicles in vertices 15 and 31 it will be possible to reach all the vertices in a maximum time of 61 min. From data of Table 5, if we place the two vehicles in vertices 26 and 31 or 26 and 32, it derives that all vertices can be reached in a maximum time of 58 min (column A). In conclusion, if we place the two prompt action vehicles in vertices 26 and 31 (Genova-Est and Rapallo highway toll-gates) or in vertices 26 and 32 (Genova-Est and Chiavari highway toll-gates), it will be possible to intervene in a maximum time of 58 min, which represents the minimum intervention time, under these conditions. This same logic can be followed whether three or more prompt action vehicles are available. It is noteworthy noting that, if we have at our disposal three prompt action vehicles placed in vertices 102132, it is possible to reach all vertices in a maximum time of 41 min (from Table 5). The same result is obtained in case we have at our disposal seven prompt action vehicles placed in the seven Fire Brigades provincial stations. It must be remarked that the resources necessary to control an accident and mitigate its consequences include an emergency management plan, trained manpower, appropriate equipment, available

References
Alp, E., & Zelensky, M. J. (1996). Risk quantication for meteorology-anddirection-dependent hazards due to point and linear risk sources. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 9(2), 135145. Beroggi, G. E. G., & Wallace, W. A. (1994). Operational risk management: A new paradigm for risk analysis. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 24(10), 14501457. Dantzig, V. D., & Kriens, J. (1960). The economic decision problem of safeguarding the Netherlands against oods Report of Delta Commission 3. NL: The Hague p. 2. Davies, P. A. (1999). Loss Prevention Bulletin, 150, 22. Dijkstra, E. W. (1959). A note on two problems in connection with graphs. Numerische Matematik, 1, 269271. Dreyfus, S. E. (1969). An appraisal of some shortes-path algorithms. Journal of Operations Research, 17(3), 395412. ` , F., Palazzi, E., & Pastorino, R. (2002). A framework for Fabiano, B., Curro risk assessment and decision making strategies in dangerous food transportation. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 93(1), 115. ger, W. (2002). Risk analyses of transportation on road Hj, N. P., & Kro and railway from a European Perspective. Safety Science, 40(14), 337 357. James, I. A. (1986). Dept. of Environment, Report DoE/RW, London, pp. 85175. Kowalski, K. M. (1995). A human component to consider in your emergency management plans: the critical incident stress factor. Safety Science, 20, 115123. Leonelli, P., Bonvicini, S., & Spadoni, G. (2000). Hazardous materials transportation: a risk-analysis-based routing methodology. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 71(1), 283300. List, G. F., Mirchandani, P. B., Turnquist, M., & Zografos, K. G. (1991). Modeling and analysis for hazardous materials transportation. Risk analysis, routing/scheduling and facility location. Transportation Science, 25(2), 100114.

B. Fabiano et al. / Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 18 (2005) 403413 Milazzo, L. S., Lisi, R., Maschio, G., Antonioli, G., Bonvicini, S., & Spadoni, G. (2002). Hazmat transport through Messina town: From risk analysis suggestions for improving territorial safety. J. Loss Prev Process Jud., 15, 347356. Pine, J. C., & Marx, B. D. (1997). Utilizing state hazardous materials transportation data in hazardous analysis. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 54, 113122. Purdy, G. (1993). Risk analysis of the transportation of dangerous goods by road and rail. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 33(2), 229259.

413

Tarjan, R. (1972). Depth rst search and linear graph algorithms. SIAM Journal of Computation, 1(2), 146160. Thomson, B. J. (1998). Proceeding of international workshop on safety in the transport Storage and use of hazardous materials. Tokyo, Japan: NRIFD. Vrijling, J. K., Van Hengel, W., & Houben, R. J. (1995). A framework for risk evaluation. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 43(3), 245261. Wiersma, T., & Molag, M. (2004). Development of new evaluation method for external safety risk Loss prevention, Vol. A. Praha, Czech Republic: PCHE PetroChemEng Publ pp. 1163-1170.