FOR THE

FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA

Campaign Document Lieuwe M. Verhage PolySci 106A: CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, MEDIA AND MESSAGE Dan Schnur University of California, Berkeley December 11, 2008

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Introduction This campaign document is written for the Gavin Newsom for Governor campaign, which is created in order to draft a campaign for Gavin Newsom, Mayor of San Francisco, which will convince a majority of the voters (52%) to vote for him in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election. As a premise, the states Democratic and Republican Primary have already been held, and our candidates opponent in Steve Poizner, current State Insurance Commissioner. The current Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won the 2003 recall election, and was reelected in 2006. His two term governorship means he is term-limited and has, under current state law, no right to seek reelection, which makes the 2010 race one without incumbents. While Schwarzeneggers approval ratings have been as high as 61% in September 2004, they have declined considerable during the last couple of monthsbetween March to September 2008 he fell 6 points to a 38% approval ratting.i This is largely due to the state, national and international economic crisis, with jobs and the economy being named the most important issue by 44% of Californians, a 31 point increase in importance since September 2007. The bad economic position of the state as well as the nation also reflects constituents opinion in which direction the state is going. With a majority along all affiliation lines (72% Democrat, 68% Republicans and 60% Independents) Californians think that the state is going in the wrong direction.ii This situation shows that California is ready for a Governor with a new approach, one that can bring back the voters belief and confidence in the state. Gavin Newsom, by emphasizing his innovative and pragmatic approach to problems as his two terms as Mayor of San Francisco show, can bring back the voters faith in the future of the state. He can do this by focusing on three issue: 21st Century Economy, Education and Equality, with which he will Bring Back the Future to California.

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Candidate Histories Gavin Newsom Biography Born on October 10, 1967 in San Francisco, CA, Newsom attended Santa Clara University, from which he graduated in 1989 earning a BA in Political Science. In 1991, Newsom started PlumJack Associates, which quickly grew to a multi-million dollar enterprise. In 1996, Mayor Willie Brown appointed Newsom to serve on the Parking and Traffic Commission, and in 1997, Mayor Brown appointed Newsom to the Board of Supervisors, to which he was reelected in 1998. In 2000 and 2002 Newsom was reelected to represent District 2the district with the highest income levels as well as highest registration of Republican voters in the city. In 2003, Newsom decided to run for Mayor, and ran on a moderate, business friendly agenda, promising to continue his battle on the homeless issue, as well as focusing on education reform and the creation of affordable housing. He won by a small margin of 6%, considering the fact that he outspent is opponent 10 to 1. In 2007, Newsom sought and won reelection with 72% without facing any serious opposition, and promising to continue the efforts he started in his first term. Newsom divorced his first wife, Kimberly Guilfoyle, in 2005, after which he had an affair with Ruby Rippey-Tourk, the wife of one of his campaign aids, which became known to the public. In July 2008 he married Jennifer Siebel. Issue history Shortly after his inauguration in 2003, Newsom opened up marriage for same-sex couples, which was halted after 29 days by the California Supreme Court. Newsom continued to be an advocate of same sex marriage, even against the advice of many high level Democrats, and was a fierce opponent of Proposition 8. In several speeches, Newsom mentioned that the victory of that proposition was not the end, and he would continue his fight for equality.iii

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During his first term as Mayor, Newsom focused on bringing businesses to the city by granting them tax incentives, with a special focus on biotech and high tech companies. The latter was in line with Newsoms efforts in making San Francisco more environmentally friendly, with at its crowing glory the joining of the Kyoto Protocol. Major Newsom proposed even farther-reaching measures that would lead to carbon neutrality of the city government by 2020.iv One of the methods to do so, is building in an energy friendly manner, as proposed by Newsoms Better Neighborhoods and HOME plans, which, in five years, will create more than 15.000 new houses in the cityof which 33% especially build for low and very low income households. These programs, combined with the Care not Cash and the Homeward Bound measures, contribute to the almost 40% decline in homeless people on the streets of San Francisco, measures that gave Newsom national attention. v He continued the extension of the city funded health insurance program to young adults previously only to childrenand in 2007 he proposed a universal health care program for all citizens. This shares the burden of costs amongst the city, workers and employers, and provide health care for 82.000 uninsured. Furthermore, he also created pre- and afterschool programs for all children in San Francisco.vi In order to combat the recent economic crisis, Major Newsom proposed an increase of the minimum wage from $9.36 to $9.79, to be effective on January 1, 2009. At the same time, he asked the supervisors to support cuts for most programsincluding social services and healthand mentioned that layoffs where inevitable. Furthermore, Newsom proposed a Economic Stimulus Package, which focused on accelerating capital projects.vii Strengths/weaknesses His abundant plans, however, show one of Newsoms biggest policy weaknesses, since most

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of his plans considerably pressure the city budget. During financially hard times, it will be difficult to deliver the voters exactly what he has promised them. His attitude towards the press, as well as his highly publicized affair, have given Newsom a public image that could be hurting him during an election. However, he tries to circumvent this issue by relying more on media outlets that he can controla radio show, YouTubeand is praised for it. His steadfast stance on same-sex marriage, while popular amongst certain voter groups, could play a huge role in the decision making process of voters opposing him on that single issue. The use of one of his speech in the Yes on Prop 8 advertisement could work as Dean Scream for Newsom. Steve Poizner Biography Born on January 4, 1957 in Houston, TX, Poizner attended the University of Texas, from which he graduated in 1978 earning a BA in Electrical Engineering. He decided to pursue a MBA at Stanford University, which he successfully finished in 1980. In 1983, he founded Strategic Mapping Inc., a software company specialized in digital maps for the purpose of information analyses, which he sold in 1995 for $35 million. He then founded SnapTrack Inc., which specialized in GPS tracking technology, which he sold in 2000 for $1 billion. In the same year, he started to volunteer as a teacher at a San Jose high school, teaching American Government to 12th graders. From his experiences there, he co-founded EdVoiceand educational nonprofit which promotes conversation between students, teachers, parents and state officials on important educational issues.viii He co-founded the California Charter Schools Association, whose number of schools have doubled due to Poizners involvement.ix Poizner made an unsuccessful bid for California State Assembly representing the 21st district, which he lost by a 3.2% differenceremarkable since its a Democratic district, but with a

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24% DIS constituency. After having to refuse an political appointment by Governor Schwarzenegger for the California Public Utilities Commission in 2005, due to complications arising from his financial holdings, Poizner decided to run for California Insurance Commissioner in the following year. Winning the elections with a 12.4% margin, Poizner became one of the two elected Republicans in a state wide election. Commissioner Poizner and his wife, Carol, live in Los Gatos where they are raising their daughter. Issue history As the Insurance Commissioner, Poizner oversees the California Department of Insurance (CDI), which has a budget of $200 and regulates almost close to 15% of Californias economy. He ran his election on three issues: Consumer protection should be non-partisan, insurance rates can be lowered by attacking insurance fraud, and the state must prepare for a future major natural disaster. During is his term as Commissioner, he received a considerate amount of criticism from his predecessor John Garamendi, but by immediately pointing out that much of his unpopular actions where done because of a steadfast belief in the free market, Poizner showed leadership and received some needed media attention. One of Poizners main issues is the introduction of a green pay-as-you-drive car insurance in California, with insurance rates based on actual mileage, which will encourage people to drive less and help reduce greenhouse gasses.x As State Insurance Commissioner he had to make some very unpopular decisions, especially in the current financial crises. Due to the recent fires in Southern California, which placed insurance companies in a difficult financial position, he had to increase the homeowner insurance rates, with much opposition from some consumer advocates. They stated that,

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especially during this economic turmoil, people should not be asked to pay more for their home insurance.xi Strengths/weaknesses Although Poizner was elected to a statewide political position, his weakness is that this position is fairly focused on one item, insurances. Although his policies are far stretching, and definitely encompass more than insurance rates (for example his environmentalist efforts with the pay-as-you-drive insurance), he has not yet have to deal with all the aspects which will come up during a possible term of governor. That said, his biography is closely linked to his issues, which is especially the case with all the efforts he made for education and education reform by creating organizations and nonprofits. His year as a high school teacher gives him first hand, opposed to second hand experience in K-12 education. He continues being a key speaker at several Republican fundraisers statewide, causing criticism that he is also the Insurance Commissioner up until 2010, and should pay more attention to that job than to run for Governor. Poizner, however, has shown to be very willing to pay for a large part of his campaign himself, which makes it easier to not accept money from those parties that would reflect badly upon the candidate, and makes it easier to run a campaign that differs from the bases of the Republican party. However, due to his moderate social views, he might not be able to persuade the Republican saints to vote for him. Mirror opposites Newsoms public divorce, alcohol problem and philandering puts him at a disadvantage in regards to Poizner, who did not have, or suffers from, such public discussions of his personal life. Poizner, however, lacks the name recognition that Newsom has, and will have to make up for this.

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Where Poizner won the fight against Proposition 93, in which his opposition dominated the mediaand even donated $2.5 million of his own money into defeating the proposition Gavin Newsom lost his fight against Proposition 8, to which he was so closely linked that his speech against the proposition was even used by the proponents. Newsoms fight for same-sex marriages has granted him national recognition, which gives him a broader window of opportunity than many of his opponents since they first need to create a personal connection with the voters. Although the rather aggressive methods used by Newsomespecially in 2004have given him lots of political capital in the Bay Area, they have also raised considerable criticism from state and national politicians from within his own party. Poizner can pay for his race by himself, having a personal budget of more than $1 billion, while Newsom has to persuade others in order to raise his funds. Since he has proven to be very successful in doing so, this does not have to be a major issue, other than for the reason that people might think that he would be more perceptive to favor those who donated money to him once he would be Governorsimilar to how Newsom got his first political position by Major Brown. Poizner is, next to current Governor Schwarzenegger, the only Republican elected to a statewide position, while Newsom has only held positions in San Francisco/in the Bay Area bubble. Both Poizner and Newsom are accused of campaigning more for their next career than that actually doing their current job. Poizner co-founded EdVoice, an education non-profit to improve Californias public schools. This, along with him having been an volunteer teacher at a San Jose high school, gives him a mirror opposite advantage on education and education reform.

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Voter History Polling/issues In the latest Public Policy Institute of California Statewide Survey, conducted after the November 4th Presidential Election, shows that not only the race for the presidency, but also the state ballots received a fair amount of public attention, most prominently Proposition 8.xii Because of protests following the passing of this proposition, combined with local as well as national and international attention, this is one of the issues that is still very important for both sides of the aisle. It furthermore shows Californians have a pessimistic economic outlook, with 75% stating that Californias economic outlook is bad. This is mostly connected to the most important issues voters cite, which is jobs and the economy (with 59%) followed by the state budget, deficit, and taxes (with 13%). They generally do not trust their elected officials to come up with measures that will address the issues above, with 63% stating that they have not so much or no [confidence] at all in them making public policy. Voting History With only two statewide elected Republican officialsGovenor Arnold Schwarzenegger and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, our opponentand supporting every democratic presidential nominee after the first George H.W. Bush presidency, California is regarded as a Democratic stronghold. The two Republican politicians winning statewide positions, however, shows that there is definitely room in the middle for a (socially) moderate Republican to win, especially due to the large and growing number of people of declare themselves DTSs. Geograpic Support (A visual representation of the following can be found in Attachment nr 1) Counties

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After analyzing six electionsthree presidential elections (2000, 2004 and 2008) along with three gubernatorial elections (2002, 2003 and 2006)the general conclusion is that geographic saints can be found in only 4 countiesMarin County, Alameda County, San Francisco County and San Mateo Countylocated on the coastal region of the state, while the Californian inlands comprises twenty-four counties which were sinners in those elections. While the number of the latter is larger, these counties are also the least populated ones of the state. Furthermore, the saints do not include those counties who voted for Governor Schwarzenegger in his 2006 reelection, which for most of these counties (for example Sonoma County, Napa County and Santa Cruz County) was the only time that they voted for a Republican rather than for a Democrat. Several factors (name recognition, approval ratings, and moderate Republican policies) could have attributed to this outcome. Together with those counties who voted for a Republican twice in the six elections, there are fourteen most persuadable salvageable counties, which are located along the coast or California, above and beneath San Francisco. Most notable county in this group is that of Los Angeles County, a densely populated area with potentially a lot of voters, if the candidate would be able to persuade them to vote for him. Less persuadable salvageable counties are those who only voted Democratic in two or three out of the six elections, and are composed of Santa Barbara County, Sacramento County, Alpine County and Mono County. For twelve counties the last presidential election was the first time to vote for Democratic candidate in these six elections, and while this might be contributed to a lot of factors, it at least shows that there is a reasonable amount of voters who, under the right circumstances, are willing to vote Democratic. These counties are mostly located on the border area between easily persuadable salvageable counties, and those which counties are regarded as sinners. DMA

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DMA wise, the saints in California are located in the San Francisco-Oak-San Jose media market, along with some of the most persuadable salvegeables. Sinners, on the other hand, are located in the Fresno-Visalia, the Chico-Reding, and Medford-Klamath Falls DMAs. In these markets almost every county voted Republican in every election, with some minor exceptions for one or two counties who voted for Barack Obama in the last presidential election. The Monterey-Salinas, the Yuma-El Centro comprises of 3 counties that voted four or five times out of the six elections for a Democrat, and is therefore a persuadable DMA. The San Diego DMAonly covering San Diego Countyis one that only voted Democratic in the last presidential election, and is therefore not a very persuadable salvageable media market. While these DMAs are more or less clearly divided amongst party lines, many of Californias DMAs are a combination of sinners and salvageables (more or less persuadable ones) and are therefore hard to target. This is especially the case with the Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto and the Los Angeles media market. While some of the counties covered by these two media markets are voting for a Democratic candidate in almost all elections, other counties are fierce sinners and vote Republican. This is also the case for the Eureka, the Santa Barbara-San MarSan Luis Obispo and the Reno DMA. Especially the last DMA is interesting, although technically not a California DMA, since two of the counties covered by this media market Alpine County and Mono Countyare the only two in the interior who voted two or three times in the six elections for a Democratic candidate. Since Gavin Newsom, personally and in the public eye, is closely related to Proposition 8, it is worthwhile to also look at the geographic support in that race with our recognized saints, sinners and salvageables map. A map showing the results of this election can be found in Attachment nr 2, along with a map of the 2006 State Insurance Commissioner election which was won by our opponent, included as Attachment nr 3. Demographic Support

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(The Exit Poll data for all 6 elections discussed can be found in Attachment nr 4 and Attachment nr 5)xiii The last three presidential elections in California were carried by the Democratic nominee, and the last two Senatorial elections (2004 Boxer, and 2006 Feinstein) were too. The only election included in this comparison that had a different outcome is the 2006 Gubernatorial election, which was won by the incumbent, Governor Schwarzenegger. Since this is the case, it is hard to point out salvageable voters, by only looking at the voting records of certain demographical groups. One has to take a closer look at the fluctuating percentages to make the most of the data. With the three presidential elections all going to the Democrats, the last election showed the largest margin. Where in 2000 and 2004 the margin was 12 and 11 percent, the 2008 results showed a margin of 24%, with 61% of the voters voting for Barack Obama, and 37% voting for John McCain. Although the percentage fluctuates from election to election, there are consistently more female than male voters in California. Although both groups have a larger amount of people voting for the Democratic presidential candidate, the margin with which they elect the candidate tends to be larger with women than with men. This is also the case with the three other elections, in which a larger percentage, although not a majority, voted for Angelides in the 06 Governors race. Women can therefore be regarded as Democratic saints, while men might be better characterized as salvageables. There is a distinction in voting records depending on the age of the voter. Although all voting groups between 18 and 64 voted Democratic in the three presidential elections, the youngest group18 to 29share in votes grew with 5% to 20% of the total amount of votes between 2000 and 2004, and stayed at that level in the 2008 elections. The share of votes by 30 to 64 declined, while the 65+ share grew from 12% to 15% between the 2004 and 2008

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elections. On the basis of their votes, the youngest group has grown to undeniable saints, with also voting for the Democratic nominee in the three other elections. While the 30-44 group steadily increased their margin in favor of a Democratic candidate, while voting for Schwarzenegger in 06, this was not the case for the 45-64 age group, which decreased their margin in the 2004 presidential election from 17% in 2000 to 5% in 2004. They are, however, still saints since the margin increased again in the 2008 elections. The oldest group (65+), however, have shown to be regarded as salvageable, by voting for John McCain in the last elections with a 2% margin, as well as for the Republican incumbent for governor in 2006 with 25 percentage point difference. Exit polls based on race/ethnicity shows that Whites are a declining part of the total amount of voters in presidential elections, going from 73% in 2000, to 65% in 2004, and 63% in 2008. Those who were indentified as Black, however, comprised a growing part of the voters, starting at 5% in 2000 to 10% in 2008. The Hispanic/Latino vote too, shows an increase which is even bigger, going from 13% in 2000 to 18% in 2008. The Asian vote fluctuates from composing 5% of the total amount of votes 2000, to 9% in 2004 and 6% in 2008. This is not the case in the other three elections. On the basis of on whom they cast their vote, only White and Asian voters can be regarded salvageables, with Whites voting Republican in the two Bush elections and onlyvoting for Obama in 2008 with a small margin, and Asians as the only minority group voting for Schwarzenegger in 06. African-Americans and Latinos are saints, which is also especially the case for Non-White Women. Amount of education only made a significant difference in the 2004 elections, with voters who did not graduate from college voting for Kerry with a 1% margin, while those who had a college degree or more voted for Kerry with almost a 20% margin. The latter can be regarded as Democratic leaning salvageables, almost always supporting the Democratic nominee with a large margin. Since annual family income was differently polled in the 2008 elections polls,

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as well as different with the non-presidential elections, it is hard to compare these results, but one can safely say that those with a lower family income vote Democratic with a wider margin than those with higher incomes. Low income families can be regarded as Democratic saints, while the higher income levels are harder to persuade to vote Democratic. Voting status was only polled in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections and in the 2004 and 2006 Senatorial race. While both groups supported the Democratic nominee in both elections, the first-time votes did so with a larger margin. In 2004 they supported Barbara Boxer with a 43% point lead over the Republican candidate, with those who voted before only with a 16% point lead. The first-time voters can therefore be regarded as more enthusiastic saints than their counterparts who have voted before. Religion was only polled in the 2000 en 2004 presidential elections, and in the 2004 senatorial election, and showed that Protestant voters are sinners when in comes to voting for the Democratic party. In both elections they chose Bush with roughly an 18% margin. Catholic and Jewish voters, on the other hand, are saints on this point, and especially the Jewish voters show a huge support for the Democratic Party, choosing Boxer rather then Jones with a 59% difference. Based on their political ideology, Liberals and Moderates are Democratic saints, although they voted for Schwarzenegger in 06. Conservatives, however, vote for the Republican nominee with roughly a 60% margin, and can be regarded as sinners. As a last indicator in the presidential polling, the party affiliation of the voter shows that Democrats as well as Republicans stick to their party, while independents in can be regarded as salvageablesvoting for Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004 and Obama in 2008. Interestingly, however, is the increasing amount of those voters registered or declaring themselves as being independents, growing from 12% in 2000 to 28% in 2008. Both political parties suffer from this, and have both endured a 6% decrease in registered voters between 2000 and 2008.

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An indicator, only polled at three local elections, was in which kind of environment the voter lived. Voters from big cities are saints for the Democratic cause, voting for their nominee in all three elections. Smaller cities and suburbs voted for Schwarzenegger, and are therefore salvageable, while small towns and rural areas (the latter only polled once due to too little participants) are sinners. With the special character of Proposition 8, it is worthwhile to also take a look at those demographics (included as Attachment nr 6). Most remarkable fact from this polling data is the difference in voting by the younger age group, with only 39% voting Yes on this proposition. Furthermore, the African-American voters supported the Yes side in larger proportions than any other ethnicity. Those with a college degree, and those making less than $30.000 and more than $150.00 supported the No side, while other voted Yes, although all with very small differences.

Message Targeting Campaign Message Gavin Newsom for Governor of California Campaign Rational: I am running for Governor to bring the future back to the Golden State Campaign Theme: Bringing the future back to California Issues: 21st century Economy: Instead of relying on old institutions that threaten to leave if they do not get the tax reduction they demand, California needs to become more accommodative to new high tech businesses and green corporate headquarters. These, and not the old institutions, hold the future of our economy, and by focusing on areas in which our state has always been the bestbeing green and focused on progresswe will make our state the main attraction for businesses that will bring high quality jobs as well as capital to California.

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Education: The future of our state lies in the hands of those who are now part of our educational system, and although California is home to some of the best universities in the world, our public schools lack behind. As the mayor of San Francisco, I created and expanded programs as Preschool For All and Afterschool For All, which remarkably increased the level of education for those students involved. It is those kinds of pragmatic measures, together with increases in teachers wages, which will change our educational system to one that fits the future of our state. Equality: We will not be able to create the future of our state if not every Californian is able to be fully part of this future. I will continue our fight for an equal opportunity for everybody, whether this opportunity is marriage equality, or equal access to health care by providing a universal health care system. We can not take the next step forward together, if we do not make sure that no one is lacking behind. This is what I have fought for while I was mayor, and this is the fight we will continue in California. This message will show the voters the best that our candidate has to offer, without turning away from issues that are important to our candidate. With the Californian budget crisis and (inter)national economic crisis, voters have lost faith in the future of the state, as previously shown by polls. With Newsoms ability to point to those things he has changed while he was Mayormost importantly bringing new businesses to the cityhe has the ability to bring this future to the state as well. Newsom, being an entrepreneur himself, knows what businesses need, and he has the history of always running on a moderate business friendly agenda. While Steve Poizner proposes a similar issue in his campaign, Newsom has the experience of actually being able to change regulatory practices and creating a business friendly environment, and succeeded in doing so for San Francisco. With the economy and jobs ranking high on the polls, bringing new businesses, jobs, and capital to the state, and therefore collecting additional tax money could also help the state recover from the budget.

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Education has been a big issue in California for a long time, and although Poizner does have his first hand experience in being a high school teacher (although only for a year), and having created several organizations to change K-12 education, it was always from the sideline, not from within the system itself. Newsoms plans for Pre- and Afterschool have created sound results, and although Newsom should not propose to make preschool obligatory for every child by law (since such a Proposition was voted upon and failed a couple of years ago), he could make the case to make it available to every child. Equality, carefully described to include all kinds of equality, is a major issue for Gavin Newsom. With Proposition 8 passed, and possible backlash from the use of one of his speeches in the Yes on 8 campaign, Newsom should be careful to focus on marriage equality alone. However, the votes on this single issue have been shifting between Proposition 22 and Proposition 8, and it is also an important issue with a large part of his saints. Especially this part of the message should be shifted in focus depending where and to whom the total message is delivered. Message for key demographic groups African-Americans: Key demographic group for Gavin Newsoms campaign will be the African-American vote. While consistently voting Democratic, they were shown to hold different beliefs on Proposition 8. Since it will be impossible to win without his saints, Gavin Newsom should adapt his message in a way that would fit the African-American community. Instead of talking about same-sex marriage in a civil rights sense, he should acknowledge the differences of opinion on this issue, but include his position in his overall fight for equality for everybody. Especially his efforts for universal health care for all Californians can be decribed as preaching to the choir, and by doing so, Newsom should be able to persuade African American to turn out and vote, rather than staying at home. Since same-sex marriage is one of the only issues which could resonate wrong with this specific demographic group, it would be

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best to deliver this message to that group as early as possible. Once they are persuaded, the African-Americans would be a valuable supporter of Newsoms campaign. This message should therefore be a combination of a persuasion as well as a base motivational message. Moderates: A different emphasis is needed for the moderate voters in the state. Their objection does not lie in Newsoms support for same-sex marriage, since they, too, objected to Proposition 8 as can be seen in the exit poll data, but they are more focused on his economic policies. Special emphasis should be placed on Newsoms business friendly approach, aka the first issue, which he has held from the beginning of his career as a politician. He will be able to connect to economically more conservative voters by focusing on his own entrepreneurial experience, and show what he has done in San Francisco in order to attract a new kind of business which, when applied to the state, will create a more sound economic position which will prepare it for the future. During the recent financial crisis Newsom has shown to not be afraid to take harsh measures in order to cut the budget and make it sound, while also stimulating the economy by increasing minimum wages, and therefore the peoples ability to consume from local businesses. Targeted geographic message The Los Angeles DMA: As can be seen from the rough numbers in Attachment nr 7, Los Angeles county, a Democratic leaning county, is a huge factor in getting all the votes needed to win the 2010 Gubernatorial elections. While the county supported the Democratic candidate for State Insurance Commissioner in 2006 rather than Steve Poizner, the county has voted Republican in the past, for example for Governor. With a high percentage of AfricanAmericansalmost double that of the state average with 11.2%as well as the fact that the county voted in favor of Proposition 8, shows that a well emphasized message might benefit Gavin Newsom in several areas.xiv The message itself should specifically focus on LA county, and not so much on the counties also covered by this media market since they are mostly

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sinners or not easily persuaded salvegeables. Although too much emphasis should not be put on the fact that Newsom has been mayor of San Francisco, his work in an urban environment, the fact that he knows the problems faced by its inhabitants should be the emphasis of his LA message. Within Newsoms issue on equality there is some room to include his programs on the homeless issue, an urban problem in general. Furthermore, Newsoms measures to make San Francisco carbon neutral, and therefore, reduce some of the unpleasant side effects from living in a big city, could also be fitted into his message for a 21st century Economy, while at the same time stressing the job creation made possible by green businesses, which will not only be high level research jobs, but also low level entry jobs, which could resonate with recent immigrants who are usually dependent on these jobs in order to make ends meet. Since urban communities, as the exit polls show, tend to favor Democratic candidates, this message could be a base motivational message, only adapted to a not 100% saint environment. With less references to San Francisco, and geared more towards general urban problems and solutions , Gavin Newsoms message will be able to fit a Los Angeles audience.

Message delivery Announcement event While Antonio Villaraigosa was a fierce opponent during the Democratic primary, which was a tight race, he has decided to endorse his fellow mayor, Gavin Newsom, for his bid in the Gubernatorial race. While, as was shown during the primary, they have their differences, Villaraigosa has decided that it would be better to let his supporters know that he thinks that Gavin Newsom will do a much better job than Republican Steve Poizner. Newsom, on the other hand, has offered Villaraigoso a chair position in a newly created commission composed of all mayors of the large cities in the state, which will advise Newsom as Governor on all issues, but primarily, due to the historic scope of the ongoing state and national economic

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crisis, on policies that will help these cities to further attract new businesses and capital in order to get trough the economic downturn. This endorsement will be held on the steps of the Los Angeles City Hall in order to emphasize the fact that it is the mayor of one city who will endorse the mayor of another city. This, with a backdrop of average Los Angeles citizens to that endorsement, will also make it appear as if it is rge city that supports Gavin Newsom as well. The flag of California, as well as the one from Los Angeles and the United states should be visible in the background, and Villaraigosa endorsement speech should take place behind a lecture with the Los Angeles seal on it. In his speech, Villaraigosa will emphasize the need to work together, across differences, especially in these economic harsh times, in order to get through this and work towards the future of the state. Newsom will thank Villaraigosa for his willingness to serve as chair on the new committee, and they will both be available for questions afterwards. In order to get as much media attention as possible, the event is scheduled at 10.30 on a Wednesday morning. Paid media/advertising message Broadcast A 30 second general add to address the issue of the 21st century economy. This add, narrated by Newsom himself, will start with black and white images of old factory buildings and empty industrial sites. While Newsom narrates his message of how California should not focus on old institutions for its wealth and prosperity, moving images of bioscience and green businesses will be appear on screen, with young scientists (age 28-45) working in labs. Newsom be shown himself, walking on the shores of the bay, with the Golden Gate Bridge in the backdrop. He will explain how he brought new businesses to San Francisco, and how he will do the same to the State of California. Mail/e-mail

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A regular mail and an e-mail messages will be sent to all college students in California asking them to join the fight for the future of their California, including a link which will give them a free iTunes song if they join the Californian Students for the Future group on Facebook. This will involve young people into the campaign, by grace of a free song, but will also receive regular updates of new movies on YouTube, which, if they want, can appear their Facebook account. This way more and more people will be able to hear about Newsoms campaign, and since these students are the ones with time and motivation, they will be able to support some parts of his campaign. Mechanism to reach targeted voter groups Online media adds/applications: With the help of several of the new businesses in San Francisco, as well as the already established bond between Gavin Newsom and YouTube, Newsom will be best to accentuate the future part of his campaign message by making most use out of the internet. Furthermore, this will create a strong emotional connection with saints that will help him as supporters, namely younger people who, by majority, support his social policies, and who are the ones affected by the new jobs created by attracting new green businesses. His already established presence on Facebook, and his State of the City address on YouTube, show that this kind of campaign is a priority for our candidate. Tv adds: In the beginning these adds will primarily run in the San Francisco DMA, in order to motivate Gavin Newsoms saints. When the campaign is up and running, and the Bay Area saints are motivated and some of the Democratic leaning salvegeables persuaded, the media buy should focus on the Los Angeles DMA where more persuasive adds and comparative adds should be shown. In this area some special focus could be paid by buying slots on channels designated for ethnic minorities to get persuade these usual saints to vote for a candidate who also fights for their equality.

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Mail: Some regular mail will be sent, as the one described above. However, since Gavin Newsom runs on a campaign directed towards the future, more inventive/interactive mail will be sent. Rather than sending long messages with policy information, messages with links to websites, videos on YouTube or podcasts in iTunes will be sent to younger voters. Other target groups, who are not accustomed to these new methods, will still receive their regular mailings on policy issues, but most emphasize should be placed and money should be spent to project Newsom as the candidate which will bring California to the future.

Candidates biggest policy weakness/plan for dealing with weakness Gavin Newsoms biggest policy weakness is his sometimes exuberant support of same-sex marriages, while this is an issue which is not shared by even some of his Democratic saints. While he receives as lot of praise from some of his constituents, and the fact that the general position on the matter is changing in favor of the issue, the fact that one his speeches was used by the Yes of Proposition 8 campaign to show why to vote yes, shows that he might still be out of step with voters on this. Since he is very vocal about his position, it would neither make sense nor would it win him votes if he would back down on his pursuit for full marriage equality. However, as is done in the campaign message, the issue should be embedded in a whole range of issues in which Newsom wants to get equality. By this way, focusing on his fight for same-sex marriages ties in with a general fight for equality, which will be regarded more positively by those previously not on the same line on the issue. It will be hard to persuade voters to agree with him on the issue, but being open and honest about it will make it easier for them to vote for Gavin Newsom although they do not support him on this single issue. Explaining why he is such a fervent supporter of equality will give him a chance to establish a personal connection with the voters, and make them into voters and supporters.

Marius Verhage 22

Summary Benchmark The 2006 Gubernatorial Elections was won by the Republican candidate for several reasons, which will play be little to no role during the 2010 elections. First of all, Schwarzenegger was the incumbent for this office, making him statistically more likely to win the elections due to a number of factors. Furthermore, Schwarzenegger still held considerable face and name recognition, which non of the Democratic candidates were able to pull, since they, as polls showed, had little face recognition. On top of that was the major shift of policy emphasis as well as direction of Schwarzenegger, who increasingly vocally favored measures he previously opposed, and which changed him from a Republican moderate into a center of even center-leftist politician. By doing so, he prevented his opponents from passing him on the left, and with no major opposition from the right, he was able to hold on to his seat. Since this race will be one without incumbent, and Republican candidates usually are not as middle of the road as Schwarzenegger proved, since their constituencies are far more conservative, the 2010 race will be more accommodative for a moderate Democrat as Gavin Newsom. Targeted areas of improvement First of all, were Angelides was not known or recognized by the voters, this will not likely be any problem with Gavin Newsom. His involvements have granted him much local as well as national attention, and this will hopefully work in his favor. Being the Mayor of San Francisco gives him the advantage of being close to his saints, and while he is regarded by some as being too much of a Republican, even those voters will likely vote for a candidate that is closer to them then the Republican opponent. Although there are currently some debates on his role in the No on Proposition 8 movementsome suggests that it has only harmed the movement, rather than helpedhis dedication to the issue of equality

Marius Verhage 23

will help him create a vast base of supporters, as is shown by the Fight H8 demonstrations, and persuade them to spent time and effort in someone who would support their issue. Being the Mayor of a city that is despised by inland conservative counties, might create a fierce opposition from socially conservative Republicans. Although this might seem like a blow in the face, it might actually work out in Newsoms benefit. Due to the strong conservative base, our opponent, Steve Poizner, will either have to give in to some of their demands, which will make him lose the support of the large an growing group of moderates in the state, or, alternatively if he decides not to give in, will make him lose the support and dedication from his Republican base. Either way, this might prevent him from getting the needed support and votes to win the election. Newsom, however, should not be carried away by this, and should stay on track of his positions in order not to scare away Democratic saints as the African-American community, which will be crucial to win the Los Angeles County elections. Salvageable voters will be persuaded to vote for Gavin Newsom by his moderate economic policies, as well as his pragmatic approach he has shown while being Mayor of San Francisco. His record, as well as his ideas for the future, will provide solid reason for fiscally conservative, but socially progressive moderates to support Newsom for Governor. Message/issues necessary to accomplish improvement Angelides was unknown, and therefore did not ever expanded his window of opportunity to get his message through. Newsom did already establish a connection with voters, and while this might not always be a positive one, he has a positive yet realistic message for the future of the state. This overall positive approach is needed in times when voters are worried about the direction of the state, as well as disenfranchised with the people they have elected to govern.

Marius Verhage 24

Final result On the morning of November 2, 2010, Californian voters have decided that they want to elect the future of state, and not be satisfied with more of the same. The people of California to decide what is best for them, for their neighbors, family and friends, and of course for the greatest state in the United States of America, the Golden State, our State of California.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_908MBS.pdf Ibid. iii http://www.politickerca.com/jeffmitchell/3009/gavin-newsom-prop-8-personal-mayor-says-adherenceprinciples-will-always-trump-pol iv http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2008/2008-01-17-096.asp v http://www.sfgov.org/site/uploadedfiles/mayor/InauguralAddressFINAL.pdf vi http://www.preschoolcalifornia.org/assets/pc-documents/pca-preschool-california-fact-sheet.pdf vii http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/21/BATA13L66I.DTL viii http://www.edvoice.org/Default.aspx?tabid=74 ix http://www.myschool.org/ x http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-insure28-2008aug28,0,1949890.story xi http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-insure21-2008nov21,1,5294580.story xii http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_1208MBS.pdf xiii All Exit Polls data is retrieved from the respective CNN elections page. xiv http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles#Demographics
ii

Attachment nr 1

Attachment nr 2

Attachment nr 3

Attachment nr 4

California Governor and Senatorial Elections 2004, 2006 and 2006

Exit Polls 2004 Total Boxer Jones 100% 58 38 2006 Feinstein Mountjoy 100% 59 35 2006 Angelides Schwarzenegger 100% 39 56

Gender Men Women Age 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Age 18-64 65+ Race/Ethnicity White African-American Latino Asian Race and Gender White men White women 32% 34% 43 58 54 41 33% 34% 49 57 44 39 34% 35% 32 33 63 63 66% 6% 21% 4% 51 86 73 76 47 14 23 24 67% 4% 19% 6% 53 87 71 70 41 13 22 26 68% 5% 19% 6% 32 70 56 37 63 27 39 62 84% 16% 60 57 38 40 81% 19% 60 59 35 36 81% 19% 40 36 55 61 21% 28% 27% 24% 64 58 59 55 33 40 38 43 14% 22% 35% 29% 65 59 58 58 29 37 36 35 13% 22% 35% 29% 49 39 37 36 44 56 58 60 48% 52% 53 65 44 34 49% 51% 55 63 39 32 49% 51% 37 41 58 55

Non-White men Non-White women Education Not a college graduate College degree or more Annual family Income Under $15.000 $15.000 to $30.000 $30.000 to $50.00 $50.000 to $75.000 $75.000 to $100.000 $100.000 to $150.000 $150.000 to $200.000 $200.000 or more Union member Yes No Voting Status First-time voter Voted before Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative

17% 18%

73 77

24 21

16% 17%

66 78

28 17

16% 16%

48 57

48 39

54% 46%

55 62

43 35

49% 51%

59 60

35 35

49% 51%

39 40

57 55

8% 13% 19% 23% 15% 14% 5% 4%

70 69 61 55 56 60 49 39

26 28 35 42 43 40 50 58

6% 11% 1% 20% 17% 18% 6% 8%

75 66 64 51 58 59 57 60

19 26 29 43 37 39 39 36

6% 11% 15% 20% 17% 17% 6% 8%

51 54 41 35 41 31 35 37

45 42 52 60 55 65 62 61

17% 83%

62 57

35 41

18% 82%

65 58

30 36

18% 82%

51 36

43 59

12% 88%

70 57

27 41

11% 89%

59 54

40 45

26% 46% 28%

93 64 21

6 33 78

25% 45% 30%

87 69 22

7 26 74

25% 44% 30%

74 38 10

20 58 86

Party Affiliation Democrats Independents Republicans Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish None Size of Community Big Cities Smaller Cities Suburbs Small Towns Rural Size of Community Urban Suburban Rural 47% 40% 13% 66 57 43 32 41 54 43% 49% 8% 65 56 52 29 39 44 44% 49% 8% 46 33 33 48 62 66 25% 24% 40% 7% 5% 75 56 57 42 42 23 42 41 55 56 19% 24% 49% 6% 2% 72 59 56 46 # 23 33 39 50 # 19% 24% 49% 6% 2% 51 42 33 27 # 45 51 62 72 # 44% 29% 4% 15% 46 67 79 68 53 29 20 30 40% 27% 33% 92 64 15 6 31 83 41% 25% 35% 94 63 16 3 26 79 40% 25% 35% 74 33 4 22 59 93

Attachment nr 5

California Presidential Elections 2000, 2004, and 2008

Exit Polls 2000 Total Gore Bush 100% 54 42 2004 Kerry Bush 55 44 2008 Obama McCain 61 37

Gender Men Women Age 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic/Latino Asian Education Not a college graduate College degree or more Annual family Income Less than $20.000 $20.000 to $39.999 9% 18% 63 51 33 45 8% 15% 66 59 32 40 66 61 46% 54% 52 54 44 42 43% 57% 50 59 49 40 51% 49% 61 60 37 38 ONLY 2008 31 30% Less than $50.000 39 37% $50.000 - $99.999 73% 5% 13% 5% 47 85 75 63 49 14 23 33 65% 7% 14% 9% 47 84 68 64 52 14 31 35 63% 10% 18% 6% 52 94 74 64 46 5 23 35 15% 33% 39% 13% 55 50 56 53 40 46 39 44 20% 29% 39% 12% 61 54 52 57 38 44 47 42 20% 28% 36% 15% 76 59 60 48 23 39 38 50 47% 53% 49 57 46 39 48% 52% 53 58 45 42 46% 54% 58 64 40 35

$40.000 to $59.999 $60.000 to $74.999 $75.000 or more Voting Status First-time voter Voted before Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Party Affiliation Democrats Independents Republicans Religion Protestant Catholic Jewish

21% 15% 37%

47 48 46

51 49 52

18% 17% 42%

56 53 51

42 46 48

57

42 33% $100.000 or more

11% 89%

59 54

40 45

14% 86%

83 54

16 44

37% 29% 34%

82 58 18

10 39 81

36% 26% 38%

87 61 20

12 38 79

25% 44% 30%

91 67 23

8 31 74

48% 12% 36%

88 43 7

10 49 92

45% 15% 37%

92 56 8

7 41 91

42% 28% 30%

92 64 14

8 31 85

48% 24% 5%

40 53 77

58 46 22

46% 25% 5%

40 59 80

59 41 20

Attachment nr 6

Proposition 8
Exit Polls 2008 Yes Total Gender Men Women Vote by Age 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Race/Etnicity White African-American Latino Asian Race and Gender White men White women Black men Black women Latino Men Latino women Education Not a college graduate College degree or more Annual family Income Under $15.000 $15.000 to $30.000 $30.000 to $50.00 $50.000 to $75.000 $75.000 to $100.000 $100.000 to $150.000 $150.000 to $200.000 $200.000 or more 5% 10% 15% 19% 17% 17% 7% 9% 46 48 54 54 50 54 47 45 54 52 46 46 50 46 53 55 50% 50% 58 47 42 53 31% 32% 4% 5% 8% 11% 51 47 # 75 54 52 49 53 # 46 46 48 63% 10% 18% 6% 49 70 53 49 51 30 47 51 20% 28% 36% 15% 39 55 54 61 61 45 46 39 46% 54% 53 54 47 48 100% 52 No 47

Voting Status First-time voter Voted before Political Ideology Liberal Moderate Conservative Party Affiliation Democrats Independents Republicans 42% 29% 28% 36 82 4 64 18 54 26% 44% 30% 22 47 85 78 53 15 14% 86% 38 56 62 44

Attachment nr 7 Votes from Saints and Democratic leaning Salvageable counties to win 2010 Gubernatorial Election Based on 2008 Presidential Election

Voters in California 52% victory

= =

13.197.173 6.862.529

Saints:

Marin Alameda San Mateo San Francisco Total

= = = =

109.320 489.106 222.767 311.714 = 1.132.907

Democratic leaning Salvageables: Humboldt Mendocino Lake Sonoma Napa Yolo Solano Contra Costa Santa Clara Santa Cruz Monterey San Benito Los Angeles Imperial Total

= = = = = = = = = = = = = =

30.807 27.843 11.986 144.399 38.849 53.488 98.775 297.353 460.128 78,495 84.545 11.917 2.247.352 17.791 = 3.603.728

Total Saints + Democratic leaning Salvegeables = 4.736.635 (69% of needed votes, 35,9% of total vote) From the rest of the votes (8.460.538) only 16.1% has to vote for the candidate in order for him to win with 52% of the votes.