Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 30, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 30, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis RBI kept repo and reserve rates unchanged in todays meeting. Spanish Flash GDP declined by 0.1 percent in Q2 of 2013. GfK German Consumer Climate rose by 0.2 points to 7-mark in July European equities are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from the region. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures trading in the green. GfK German Consumer Climate rose by 0.2 points to 7-mark in July as against a rise of 6.8-level in June. Spanish Flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.1 percent in Q2 of 2013 from earlier drop of 0.5 percent in Q1 of 2013. Indias Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rates and reverse repo rates unchanged at 7.25 percent and 6.25 percent respectively in its July monetary policy meeting. The central bank has cut the growth forecast for the country to 5.5 percent in current fiscal year from previous estimates of 5.7 percent. Spot gold prices declined around 0.3 percent today on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, decline in SPDR gold holdings which are at lowest level since February 2009 added downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of upbeat global markets. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee prevented fall in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 0.8 percent today. Further, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for prices. Depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Further, expectations of slow economic growth in US and China coupled with mixed LME inventories exerted downside pressure on prices. However, upbeat global markets cushioned sharp fall in prices. Depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group fell more than 1.3 percent today on account of strength in the DX. Further, expectations of slow economic growth in China and US acted as a negative factor However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent which stood at 613,550 tonnes. On the domestic front, depreciation in the Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.6 percent today on the back of forecast of slowdown in economic growth in US and China led to expectations of decline in demand for the fuel. However, sharp fall in prices was cushioned on account of estimates of decline in API crude oil inventories. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 30 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5836.05 19577.75 13634.20 1901.88 16316.42

5861.30 19672.72 13909.45 1917.11 16401.48

5747.60 19328.54 13613.78 1900.54 16285.50

5755.05 19348.34 13869.82 1917.05 16285.50

-1.31 -1.25 1.53 0.90 0.57

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 30 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.81 1.3261 59.49

81.94 1.3278 60.415

81.78 1.3246 59.407

81.825 1.3269 60.36

0.08 0.07 1.38

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 30 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1327.39 1325.70 28300.00 19.81 0.198 41048 104.52 107.45 6232 6860.50 411.00 1848.25 108.35 2071 122.90 13711 814.40 1800.00 104.65

1329.77 1329.60 28375.0 19.89 0.1983 41250 104.54 107.56 6296 6873.00 412.40 1856.50 109.20 2075 123.70 13770 817.40 1808.25 105.20

1317.89 1317.50 28075.0 19.52 0.19695 40651 103.56 106.92 6224 6781.75 409.10 1836.50 107.90 2048 122.30 13546 809.10 1785.00 104.30

1323.61 1323.20 28275.00 19.65 0.19695 41140 103.93 107.29 6289 6785.00 411.45 1840.00 109.00 2052 123.15 13550 814.80 1785.00 105.00

-0.25 -0.39 -0.01 -0.81 -0.80 -0.01 -0.59 -0.15 0.61 -1.31 0.15 -0.66 0.69 -0.85 0.29 -1.21 0.34 -0.92 0.53

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | July 30, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of expectations of decline in US consumer confidence data. Additionally, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure on prices. Further, expectations of slow economic growth in US and China will act as a negative factor for base metals prices. Crude oil prices will take cues from forecast of fall in API crude oil inventories which will prevent sharp fall in prices.

Technical Outook for evening session 30 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

28050 1308 40700 19.30 6220 102.75 201 6720 406 106.9 121.4 103.7 800

28170 1317 40950 19.5 6260 103.5 205 6760 409 107.7 122.4 104.3 808

28255 1322.6 41127 19.62 6294 103.97 209.2 6786 411.45 109.05 123.2 105.1 814.6

28450 1333 41500 19.91 6340 104.6 212 6860 413 109.8 124 105.9 820

28560 1344 41800 20.14 6390 105.3 216 6900 416 110.6 124.8 106.6 829

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Household Spending y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m GfK German Consumer Climate German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Flash GDP q/q Italian 10-y Bond Auction S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Japan Japan Euro Euro Euro Euro US US

5:00am 5:20am 11:30am All day 12:30pm 2:43pm 6:30pm 7:30pm

-0.4% -3.3% 7.0 -0.1% 4.46/1.3 -

1.2% -1.4% 6.9 0.3% -0.1% 12.4% 81.1

-1.6% 1.9% 6.8 0.1% -0.5% 4.55/1.5 12.1% 81.4

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High