Continued Rise Of The Recip

By Brent Haight

POWER GENERATION ORDER SURVEY

Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwides Power Generation Order Survey is part one of three surveys designed to provide details on the markets of larger reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines used in power generation, marine propulsion and mechanical drive applications. We divide the data into three reports in order to provide a more in-depth look at each market segment. The Power Generation Order Survey examines reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines for power generation service. The Mechanical Drive Order Survey (to appear in the June issue) is devoted to engine orders for mechanical drive applications including pumps, compressors, oil exploration machinery, rail and other industrial applications. The Marine Propulsion Order

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Survey (to appear in the July/August issue) examines mechanical drive, auxiliary and diesel-electric marine propulsions systems. Procedures The Power Generation Order Survey includes reciprocating engines starting at 500 kW; gas turbines rated 1.0 MW and above; and steam turbines. New orders are broken into types of generating service standby, peaking and continuous. Manufacturers provide their own distinction between peaking and standby service; however, standby service typically refers to power generation in backup or emergency service. Peaking service is associated with power generation used in conjunction with local utilities. The time that peak service operates is dependent on the condition of the local electrical grid. Continuous service typically refers to continuous power generation, stopping only for maintenance or unexpected outages. An accompanying table identifies those companies that participated in the 2013 survey. Every effort is made to ensure that this survey is as complete and comprehensive as possible and would not have the level of detail it contains without the generous contributions of the participating companies.

Overview The 2013 Power Generation Order Survey continues the theme of the 2012 Power Generation Order Survey: Its a good time to be in the large horsepower reciprocating engine business. While recip engine orders dipped slightly compared to last years report, the overwhelming prime mover preference for power generation applications remains reciprocating engines. If you recall, the 2012 Power Generation Order Survey (2011 reporting data) revealed that recip engine orders surpassed the high-water mark set in 2007, when 36 145 units were reported. The 2013 Power Generation Order Survey (2012 reporting data) reveals a 12% drop in recip orders compared to the 2012 survey, but 31 696 units is evidence that recip engines continue to make considerable market share gains in the power generation realm. Gas turbine orders fell 34% compared to last years report. The 2013 survey reveals 447 gas turbine orders while 2012 reported 677 units. It is important to note that fluctuations in OEM participation beyond our control do influence year-over-year comparison. That being said, however, the gain in market share by reciprocating engines must once again be noted.

RECIPROCATING ENGINES (DIESEL, DUAL-FUEL & GASEOUS FUEL) ENGINE ORDERS, January December 2012
Type Of Generating Engine Operating Total Service Speed Ranges (r/min) Output Units Engine Range (MW) Ordered Output Con- Below 300 720 - Above (MWe) Standby Peaking tinuous 300 600 1000 1000 0.50 - 1.00 17 636 13 280 9425 220 7991 0 0 3 17 633 1.01 - 2.00 11 125 16 097 4712 106 6307 0 0 116 11 009 2.01 - 3.50 2428 6035 1217 24 1187 0 0 9 2419 3.51 - 5.00 129 546 33 0 96 0 5 52 72 5.01 - 7.50 83 473 28 10 45 0 0 27 56 7.51 - 10.00 178 1627 0 47 131 0 0 178 0 10.01 - 15.00 3 35 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 15.01 - 20.00 113 2009 0 0 113 0 113 0 0 20.01 - 30.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30.01 and 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 above Totals 31 696 40 102 15 415 407 15 874 1 121 385 31 189 Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS Central America & Caribbean 846 196 40 2 3 2 0 2 0 1 1092 Southeast Asia & Australia North America Diesel Fuel 16 500 9311 2087 25 54 0 3 0 0 0 27 980 Heavy Fuel 10 103 5 9 14 83 0 11 0 1 236 Dual Fuel 46 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0 111 Liquid Natural Biofuel Gas 0 1080 3 1708 2 334 4 91 0 15 0 95 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 9 0 3360 South America 992 597 112 3 3 38 0 11 0 0 1756 Western Europe Fuel Central,West, East & South Africa 702 355 52 10 6 41 3 8 0 0 1177 Central Asia 3397 841 80 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 4334 Middle East North Africa 0 0 5 8 10 12 0 0 0 0 35 Far East 1567 1915 267 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 3762

2655 2075 455 50 1 3 0 0 0 0 5239

879 576 75 15 3 0 0 22 0 0 1570

2459 1644 136 20 38 51 0 38 0 0 4386

979 940 260 4 1 22 0 10 0 0 2216

3160 1986 946 5 9 1 0 22 0 0 6129

M a y 2 0 1 3 Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide

Power Generation Order Survey

GAS TURBINE POWER GENERATION ORDERS, January December 2012
Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS North America Far East Standby 96 25 37 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 161 Peaking 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 3 North Africa Continuous 34 6 31 65 14 60 2 3 47 8 5 8 283 Diesel Fuel 44 13 21 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 83 Heavy Fuel 49 12 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 76 Dual Fuel 16 3 7 24 2 28 2 2 38 2 5 5 134 Natural Gas 21 3 25 41 12 31 0 1 10 7 0 3 154 South America 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 0 17 1 0 0 25 Western Europe Central Asia Middle East Output Range (MW) 1.00 - 2.00 2.01 - 3.50 3.51 - 5.00 5.01 - 7.50 7.51 - 10.00 10.01 - 15.00 15.01 - 20.00 20.01 - 30.00 30.01 - 60.00 60.01 - 120.00 120.01 - 180.00 180.01 and above Totals Units Ordered 130 31 68 68 14 60 2 3 49 9 5 8 447 Total Engine Output (MWe) 179 91 283 410 107 829 32 71 1632 611 810 2130 7185 Southeast Asia & Australia Central America & Caribbean 2 0 4 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 12 Type Of Generating Service Fuel Central,West, East & South Africa 7 2 0 9 0 3 0 2 3 0 0 0 26

2 0 9 4 1 4 0 0 7 0 0 0 27

13 0 1 8 0 5 0 0 0 6 4 0 37

2 0 1 10 0 14 0 1 5 0 0 2 35

101 25 40 12 4 15 2 0 2 0 0 3 204

3 4 0 10 0 10 0 0 7 0 0 0 34

0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4

0 0 12 8 8 5 0 0 7 0 0 0 40

Steam turbine orders rose by 4% compared to the 2012 survey. This years survey cataloged 128 steam turbine orders while 2012 accounted for 123 units. Steam turbines continue to grow in popularity, boasting a 64% growth in the last two years. Total units ordered in 2012 (combined gas turbine, steam turbine and reciprocating engine order data) were 32 271, a 15% decrease compared to 2011. North America edged out Western Europe to claim the top geographic location for all reported driver types in 2012 with 6181 units ordered. No doubt, the United States booming shale fields led to North Americas jump to the number one spot. Western Europe received 5276 orders. The top five markets revealed in

the 2013 Power Generation Order Survey are: North America (19%), Western Europe (16%), the Middle East (14%), Central Asia (13%) and the Far East (12%). The Middle East began its expected climb, moving from the fourth geographic location to the third. In last years survey, we predicted the Middle Easts ranking would move after Saudi Arabia forecasted that its 28 million population would double in 10 years, as well as the countrys plans to increase its power generation capacity. Analysts quantify the regions need at 4000 MW power/yr worth of new power plants. Look for sustained growth in the Middle East for the foreseeable future thanks to continued need in that region.

Combined Type Of Generating Service For All Driver Types

January December 2012

Continuous Duty

16 285

15 576

Peaking Standby

410
M a y 2 0 1 3 Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide

Diesel, Dual-Fuel And Gas Engine Orders The number of diesel, dual-fuel and natural gas engines ordered in 2011 totaled 31 696, a 12% decrease compared to last years survey. The majority of orders (56%) were once again in the power range of 500 kW to 1 MW, followed by the 1.01 to 2.00 MW range (35%). Continuous duty topped the type of generation service for the first time. The 2013 survey reveals 50% of the orders received were destined for continuous duty service. Historically, standby power dominated the type of generation service classed for recip engines. Look for recips in continuous power applications to continue to gain market share thanks to the decline in coal-powered plants and the continued uncertainty of nuclear power generation around the globe. Standby power represented 49%, while peaking service received roughly 1% of the orders. Engine operating speeds above 1000 r/min comprised 98% of the total units ordered in 2012. Diesel fuel continued its domination as preferred fuel for reciprocating engines in power generation applications, claiming 88% of the reported engines fuel type. Natural gas represented 10%. The 2013 Power Generation Order Survey marks the entry of liquid biofuel as a fuel type, which recorded nine orders. Top geographic locations for diesel, dual-fuel and gas engines were North America (19%), West-

Power Generation Order Survey

Steam TURBINE POWER GENERATION ORDERS, January December 2012
Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS Central,West, East & South Africa Condensing NonCondensing Extraction Induction North America Reheat South America 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Western Europe Central Asia Middle East North Africa Output Range (MW) 0.0 - 1.00 1.01 - 5.00 5.01 - 10.00 10.01 - 30.00 30.01 - 60.00 60.01 - 120.00 120.01 - 200.00 200.01 - 300.00 300.01 - 500.00 500.01 - 700.00 700.01 1000.00 1000.01 and above Totals Units Ordered 17 62 9 10 10 6 1 3 0 2 2 6 128 Central America & Caribbean 0 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Southeast Asia & Australia 10 45 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 Type Of Generating Service Total Engine Output Standby Peaking Con tinuous (MWe) 10 122 66 179 359 720 142 732 0 1190 1600 6775 11 895 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 62 9 10 10 6 1 3 0 2 2 6 128 Steam Turbine Types

0 8 7 7 7 4 1 3 0 2 2 6 47

17 53 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 77

0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 2 2 3 12

0 4 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

0 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

0 0 1 1 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 4 12

0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5

Far East 0 3 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 2 12

0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 3

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2 2 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7

3 5 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12

ern Europe (17%), the Middle East (14%), Central Asia (13%) and the Far East (12%). How long the U.S. shale boom continues will determine North Americas time atop the geographic destination list for recip engines. Look for the Far East to soon challenge all regions as Chinas own shale fields are proving to be a major source of domestic fuel to quench Chinas growing thirst for power generation. Caterpillar recently added an engine to its lineup specifically to match Chinas shale gas applications (see page 10), evidence that China holds huge growth opportunities within the power generation landscape.

Gas Turbines Gas turbine orders reported in the 2013 survey totaled 447 units, down 34% compared to last year. Gas turbines rated 1.00 to 2.00 MW saw the most activity, accounting for 29% of the orders. Gas turbines less than 10 MW are on the rise. Orders for units less than 10 MW totaled 311 units (70%) while units sized greater than 10 MW totaled 136 (30%). Comparatively, last years survey revealed 49% of the orders were less than 10 MW while 51% of the total gas turbine orders were greater than 10 MW. Natural gas again dominated the fuel type (34%), followed by dual-

fuel (29%), diesel fuel (18%) and heavy fuel (17%). The Far East claimed the top geographic location for gas turbine orders (45%). Continued decline in nuclear power popularity, combined with Chinas growing need for reliable power, should keep the Far East atop the geographic destination for gas turbines for years to come. North America claimed the second spot (9%), followed by Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS (8%), the Middle East (7.8%) and Southern Asia & Australia (7.6%). Steam Turbines Steam turbine orders totaled 128 units in the 2013 survey, an

Combined Regional Total For All Reported Driver Types

January December 2012
South America Central America & Caribbean North America Central, West, East & South Africa North Africa Central Asia Southeast Asia & Australia Far East Middle East Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS Western Europe 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1619 5276 6000 7000 2307 3978 4426 39 4340 1210 1109 6181 1786

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Power Generation Order Survey

increase of 4% compared to last year and the fourth consecutive year of growth. The 2009 survey revealed 66 steam turbine orders, the low-water mark for steam turbine orders reported in the Power Generation Order Survey. Since then, steam turbine orders reported in the survey have grown 94%. Units rated 1.01 to 5.00 MW saw the most demand, accounting for 48% of all steam turbine orders. All units were classified as continuous duty. Southern Asia & Australia was the top geographic location (44%), followed by the Far East, Eastern Europe & CIS and North America, which each accounted for 9%, respectively. Western Europe rounded out the top five locations with 8%. Annual Surveys On behalf of Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide, thank you to all contributors for your continued participation in this annual survey process. It is our hope that the three surveys combined will provide an accurate snapshot of the entire large-engine landscape, with fine-tuned detail provided for three market segments through each individual report power generation, marine propulsion and mechanical drive. Electronic versions of past surveys are available at our website: www.dieselgasturbine. com. Questions, comments and suggestions should be directed to bhaight@dieselpub.com. a

Power Generation Order Survey Participants

Diesel, Dual-Fuel And Gas Engine Manufacturers
Caterpillar Inc.  Caterpillar Power Generation Systems Cummins Power Generation Dresser-Rand Dresser-Rand, Guascor Electro-Motive Diesel Inc. Fairbanks Morse  GE Power & Water (Waukesha and Jenbacher engines) Hyundai Heavy Industries Kawasaki Heavy Industries  MAN Diesel & Turbo (including license-built engines) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MWM Niigata Power Systems Co. PervomaiskDieselMash (PDM) RUMO Sakr Power Systems S.A.L. Tognum AG/MTU Friedrichshafen Wrtsil Yanmar Co. Ltd. Niigata Power Systems NPO Saturn Opra Turbines Power Machines Rolls-Royce Solar Turbines Vericor Power Systems Zorya-Machproekt MAN Diesel & Turbo  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Compressor Corporation Power Machines Ural Turbine Words

Gas Turbine Manufacturers

Ansaldo Energia S.p.A. Dresser-Rand Energomash Business Group GE Oil & Gas GE Power & Water Hitachi Ltd. Kawasaki Heavy Industries MAN Diesel & Turbo

Steam Turbine Manufacturers

Ansaldo Energia S.p.A. Dresser-Rand  Fincantieri Cantieri Navali Italiani S.p.A. GE Oil & Gas Hitachi Ltd.

Country Information For Regions/Regional Codes, D&GTW Annual Market Surveys

Western Europe Andorra Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Liechtenstein Luxembourg Italy Ireland Netherlands Malta Norway Portugal San Marino Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Eastern Europe, Russia & CIS Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Republic of Macedonia Romania Russia Serbia Slovac Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Middle East Bahrain Cyprus Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen Far East China Hong Kong Japan Mongolia North Korea South Korea Taiwan Southeast Asia & Australia Australia Brunei Burma Cambodia Fiji Islands Indonesia Kiribati Laos Malaysia Marshall Islands Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines Samoa Singapore Solomon Islands Tahiti Tonga Thailand Tuvalu Vanuatu Vietnam Central Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh India Maldives Islands Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka North Africa Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Central, West, East & South Africa Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Cen. African Rep. Chad Comoros Congo Cote dIvoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Ivory Coast Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe North America Canada U.S.A. Central America & Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Belize Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Domin. Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Puerto Rico Virgin Islands West Indies South America Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Guyana Paraguay Peru Surinam Uruguay Venezuela

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