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andrewseybold.com
May 7, 2012
! Afternoon session 1:15 pm, end by 5:00 pm ! Two 15-minute mid-session breaks ! Pauses for Q &A between sections
Please step up to the microphone to ask a question
! For a copy of this material in PDF format, ask registration outside the door ! Please set your phones and wireless devices to vibrate
About Us
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Instructors
Andrew Seybold, CEO and Principal Consultant, Andrew Seybold, Inc.
Andy Seybold is one of the worlds leading authorities on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. He is a respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author, and active participant in wireless industry trade organizations. His views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for many of the worlds most respected names in the wireless industry from Verizon to Nokia. Mr. Seybold is widely known throughout the wireless communications industry for his keen perspective as well as his track renerd for accurately predicting trends in mobile wireless technology and convergence. He is a frequent speaker at leading industry events such as CES and CTIA shows, and at corporate events for companies including Verizon, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and others.
About Us
Barney Dewey, Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.
Barney Dewey joined Andrew Seybold, Inc. in 1997, bringing more than thirty years of experience in business strategy, planning and executive management, consulting, and training for wireless services and products (technology). Previously he held executive-level posts at Notable Technologies, Inc. where he established and implemented the companys wireless-based business direction, and at Calera Recognition Systems where he brought new OCR technologies to market. Prior to Calera, he held positions at Apple Computer where he led business plan development, product strategy and planning for handheld device connectivity, and wireless and multimedia services. Mr. Dewey began his career at Motorola, where he designed and implemented wireless communications systems.
About Us
! Interactive Q & A
9 2012, All Rights Reserved
Afternoon Session
! Devices and Operating Systems
Smartphones, tablets/readers Netbooks/laptops/ultrabooks Operating systems/ecosystems
Wireless Broadband
Andrew M. Seybold
There is only so much spectrum available. No more can be made, we can only use it more efficiently
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Spectrum Shortage
! Reports show broadband spectrum shortage looming
Verizon may reach capacity on LTE network 2013/2014 FCC reports wireless broadband growth soaring year over year Streaming video primary cited cause
! Some disagree
Recent Citi Investments report claims shortage made up by network operators to justify more spectrum Citi says network operators should utilize all of their spectrum for LTE
! CTIA study shows U.S. spectrum allocations higher than most countries but
By 2013, U.S. will lag behind
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Existing services must be relocated to where? Spectrum between 500 MHz and about 3.5 GHz good for broadband
Below 500 MHz, antennas, filters, components too large Above 3.5 GHz, coverage per cell site limited
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! Working together to clear additional spectrum ! Some communications systems operate on both NTIA, FCC spectrum on shared basis ! NTIA manages more spectrum than FCC! ! Spectrum management model must change
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! Until LTE, wired data speeds outpaced wireless ! LTE faster than DSL, most cable modems
Not as fast as fiber optic broadband
! LTE advanced next ! LTE will replace 2G, 3G systems over time ! Maximum data speeds NOT real-world speeds
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TDMA
voice
AT&T, others
HSPA+
data
AT&T, T-Mobile
AMPS
voice
AT&T, Verizon
GSM
voice, text, data
AT&T, T-Mobile
GSM
voice, text, data
AT&T, T-Mobile
LTE
voice, text, data
AT&T, Verizon
CDMA
voice, text, data
Verizon, Sprint
CDMA
voice, text, data
Verizon, Sprint
WiMAX
voice, text, data
Sprint
8.0 Kbps 9.2 Kbps 19.2 Kbps 14.2 Kbps 20.0 Kbps 100 Kbps 1 Mbps 3-5 Mbps 10-20 Mbps
LTE speeds dependent on amount of spectrum LTE supports 1.4, 3, 5, 10, up to 20 MHz of spectrum The more spectrum used, the faster the data rate, more capacity U.S. 700 MHz spectrum allocations are 6X6,11X11 MHz
! Networks can be set for static configurations or parameters can be changed based on demand ! Frequency reuse for LTE is 1:1
Interference is issue, networks have to be planned and designed carefully
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! Network capacity
The important capacity for users: a single cell sector Each cell divided into three 120-degree sectors Each sector has same data capacity Only one user within a cell sector, has access to total capacity, maximum speed
Depending on how far from cell center
Many users in same cell sector, must share available capacity, data speeds will vary Performance is fine for typical Internet activities, checking mail, etc.,
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Multiple users share total available bandwidth If multiple users are streaming video, each users performance will degrade
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Data
Voice
Time
Source: Wireless Intelligence / Zokem Research
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Questions
How many of you have an LTE-capable phone? How many of you believe your voice calls are handled on the LTE network? Not Today!
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! Network operators want to replace 2G, 3G systems with LTE to provide more network capacity ! Will need to add voice to LTE
Standard is Voice over IP or in this case, VoLTE
! Metro PCS will offer VoLTE later this year ! Verizon in trials in several areas ! AT&T advised its customers with 2G-only-capable phones to upgrade to 2G/3G phones ! No sunset for 2G, up to each operator
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! LTE supports Quality of Service, required for true Voice over IP ! VoIP used on networks today via Vonage, Skype, others
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! VoLTE requires top priority of packet flow ! Quality of Service and Priority for packets important attributes required for VoLTE ! Operators goal is 100% LTE
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! Push-to-talk services
Available on some 2G, 3G networks Will come to LTE after voice calls Non-mission-critical Ability to assign multiple talk groups
! Timeframe for VoLTE is sooner rather than later ! Driven by need to migrate as much spectrum as possible to LTE ! No sunset or end of life specified by FCC for 2G, 3G; up to operators ! LTE can be used on any existing cellular spectrum allocations
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LTE sector supports up to 35 Mbps Capacity shared by all users on the site!
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Multiple users share total available bandwidth If multiple users are streaming video, each users performance will degrade
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! When too many users within a single cell sector want service at the same time, the sector becomes overloaded
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! Connections first-come, first-served ! Typical cell sector provides solid data speeds for most users unless
Some are streaming video up or down to their devices
! Can accommodate many more users per cell sector when surfing the net, checking email, etc.
Video streaming will limit number of users per cell sector
Standard-definition movie will consume 1.5-2 Mbps of data HD can consume up to 5 Mbps or more per user
! Multicast (one to many video service) is NOT available today, may be in the future
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! ! ! ! !
Tests conducted near cell center (0.5 miles from center) Mid-coverage (1.5 miles from center) Edge of cell (3.8 milesusable signal) Edge of cell (4.2 milesunusable signal) Same cell sector, in center of sector coverage
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Note: These numbers are based on minimum number of first responders for the incident. In reality, there will be more units/people on the scene, thus an even higher demand for video to and from the incident.
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Note: These numbers are based on minimum number of first responders for the incident. In reality, there will be more units/ people on the scene, thus an even higher demand for video to and from the incident.
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2 Videos Simultaneously
3 Videos Simultaneously
4 Videos Simultaneously
5 Videos Simultaneously
! Recent events
Earthquake on East Coast (5.8)
Cell networks stayed up but were over-crowded by demand for voice, text, AND data services
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! Some operators quote maximum possible data rates based on ideal conditions, single user in sector ! Some operators quote expected data rates under normal customer loading ! Data speeds/capacity will vary across network ! Broadband data speeds and capacity
Depend on users location in relationship to cell site
The further from the cell center, the less speed
Smart antennas
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Time-of-delivery charges
Not yet implemented: Download at 2 pm for $5.00, 2 am no extra charge
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! Converting to LTE
AT&T warned 2G-only phone users to upgrade ASAP VoLTE will have to be proven viable LTE coverage must match todays 2G/3G coverage before practical
First in metro areas, move outward
Ultimate goal to convert all 2G/3G spectrum to LTE use LTE will become faster, have more capacity LTE Advanced will provide even more capacity, speed
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! Network operators moving to LTE will help ! Network operators using most tools listed to manage their networks and exploding demand for data services
No one solution to this problem
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15 Minute Break!
Sponsored by:
TV White Space
! Little white space spectrum available in urban areas ! Have to wait to see how it plays out ! IEEE 802.11af expected mid-2014
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Urban-Area Examples
San Francisco
Los Angeles
New York
Chicago
! White space services only available in smaller urban/suburban, rural areas ! Momentum is negative
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In-Building Coverage
! Wireless services indoors a challenge to everyone
Getting RF inside a building requires cell site close enough Offices, homes with tinted windows difficult to penetrate
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Wi-Fi Hotspots
! Take load off operators data network ! Supported by most smartphones ! Transparent voice over Wi-Fi supported by some operators
T-Mobile wraps GSM voice over Wi-Fi
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Bi-Directional Antennas
! Both require consent of spectrum license holder (network operator) ! BDAs require donor site
Existing network cell site Do not reduce traffic on wide-area network
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Femtocells
! ! ! ! ! ! ! Miniature cell sites designed for in-building coverage Use customers DSL/cable for backhaul Wi-Fi sometimes doubles as a femtocell (T-Mobile) Most support multiple voice calls and data Offered by AT&T, Sprint, Verizon in U.S. In Japan, SoftBank Mobile, January 2009 Vodaphone offers femtocells in Europe
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Picocells
! Picocells provide more coverage than femtocells ! Picocell systems (mini-cell sites)
Fiber along telephone poles Picocells mounted on power, light, or telephone poles Multiple business models
Wireless operators Another organization (e.g., convention center, mall, airport)
Company deploys fiber, installs picocells Monthly lease to networks on per-picocell basis
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Picocells
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Picocells
Cover small areafewer customers per picocell Therefore, more total system capacity in a given area Picocells sometimes easier to permit than larger cell sites
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Analysis
! Network operators need more efficient use of spectrum ! BDAs provide coverage with no cellular infrastructure investment ! Femtocells and picocells take customers off wide-area network, reduces congestion ! These solutions solve many indoor coverage problems
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Wi-Fi
! Designed as wireless extension of Ethernet
Wireless connectivity for last 300 feet IEEE standard 802.11
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Wi-Fi Basics
! 802.11a (1999)
5-GHz band Raw data rate up to 54 Mbps
Typical maximum 19 Mbps
! 802.11b (1999)
2.4-GHz band Raw data rate up to 11 Mbps
Typical maximum 6 Mbps
! 802.11g (2003)
2.4-GHz band Raw data rate up to 54 Mbps
Typical maximum 19 Mbps
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Wi-Fi Basics
! 802.11n (2009)
2.4 or 5-GHz band Raw data rate up to 600 Mbps
Maximum 450 Mbps/typical ~85 Mbps
Uses 2 channels (40 MHz) Uses MIMO (multiple antennas and up to 4 data streams)
Uses 4 or 8 channels (80 or 160 MHz) Uses MIMO (multiple antennas and up to 8 data streams) 256-QAM modulation added
! 802.11n
Only 1 channel available
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! In a caf
Many devices Often link is T-1 (1.544 Mbps)much slower than home connections Again, almost any Wi-Fi will work but per-device performance poor
Large number of devices Usually fast link (44 to 400 Mbps) Requires many channels, higher speeds to support number of devices 802.11n or 802.11ac on 5 GHz important in this environment
Wi-Fi Security
! History
Original WEP (Wired Equivalent Privacy) method quickly compromised
Tools such as AirSnort, Aircrack-ng can quickly recover WEP encryption keys
! Analysis
With WPA2, Wi-Fi considered secure Enterprises now adopt Wi-Fi, especially using VPN technology Security of little concern today if set up
Home uses WPA2 Enterprises use VPNs
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Municipal Wi-Fi
! Wi-Fi coverage mostly outside in cities
Wi-Fi access points on lamp posts connected by mesh backbone
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! Low speed
Interference Backbones often limited
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Wi-Fi Mobility
! No standard for Wi-Fi back-end mobility
Connection lost as device moves between access points
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ZigBee Progress
! ! ! ! ! Ratification of ZigBee specification: December 2004 ZigBee specification released to public: June 13, 2005 Commercial deployments: 2006 100,000+ developer kits sold Major ZigBee promoters provide insight to future applications
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! Data rates
2.4 GHz: 250 Kbps on each of 16 channels 915 MHz: 40 Kbps on each of 10 channels 868 MHz: 20 Kbps on 1 channel More bands and channels coming
! Two-way protocol for transfer reliability ! Very low power, battery life months to years ! Low latency with optional guaranteed time slot
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! Home automation
Lighting control AV routing Thermostats
! Building automation
Replacement of lighting control wiring Room-by-room temperature control Remote control
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! Healthcare
Health management, patient monitoring
! Telecommunications services
Mobile device ability to pay for products and services, create gaming networks
! Retail services
Collection, delivery, selection, data sharing with customers, in-store and mobile payment retail applications
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Bluetooth
! Standard for exchanging data over short distances ! Bluetooth managed by Bluetooth Special Interest Group
15,000+ member companies
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MUSIC
INPUT
Bluetooth Range 10 meters # Devices 8/ piconet Frequency 2.45 GHz Sleep Power 30A Standby Power 300A Tx Power 800A max Voice 3 per piconet Data Rates 721/56 or 432/432
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Imaging
Video Streaming
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Sports & Fitness Healthcare Home & Entertainment Office & Mobile Accessories Automotive Watch
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Bluetooth Analysis
! Bluetooth moves from name of technology to brand for personal-area networking ! Bluetooths biggest challenge is to keep it simple
More opportunity to confuse consumers with ultra-low power, highspeed implementations No longer one Bluetooth
! Opportunity
Leverage brand name for new consumer applications Leverage Bluetooth experience for setup, discovery, connection management
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! Licensing of IP (Intellectual Property) conflicts have slowed applications ! Wireless USB standardized in September 2010
Wireless replacement for USB 2.0 standard (up 480 Mbit/s)
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60 GHz
! Higher power, higher bandwidth
Up to 7 Gbps initially Future to 25 Gbps Very short range (30) likely
! Primary applications
Very large data files Multiple HD video streams
! Competing standards
Wireless Gigabit AllianceWiGig
Supported by Wi-Fi Alliance AMD, Cisco, Broadcom, Dell Intel, Microsoft, Panasonic, Samsung, TI
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60 GHz Analysis
! Possibility next high-speed video PAN for living room ! WiGig and WiDi standards may co-exist ! WiGig standard may become part of Wi-Fi standard
802.11ad Other Wi-Fi modes may set up 60 GHz link with beam forming to improve range
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NFC Applications
! Mobile payment
Acts as debit/credit card
! ! ! !
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Q&A
Lunchtime Speaker
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SPECTRUM
More Spectrum leverage all spectrum assets
BETTER TECHNIQUES
Evolve 3G/4G and leverage advanced receivers Make voice more efficient to free up resources for data
OFFLOAD
Smart Wi-Fi Offload leverage unlicensed spectrum
HETNETS
Bring network closer to the usersmall cells/HetNets
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Circuit Voice Has A Long Life During The Transition to Richer, Carrier Grade VoIP
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1Thanks
to soft handover, proven interoperability and 10+ years of 1X/WCDMA optimizations. OTT=Over-The-Top, voice just like any data service without Quality of Service
VoLTE
Packet Handover
Seamless Transitions
WCDMA 1X
WCDMA+
1X Advanced
Circuit Switched Fallback. 2SRVCC: Single Radio Voice Call Continuity to enable handover to WCDMA/1X/GSM CS voice outside VoLTE coverage.
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CDMA2000 1X
x
Voice users
EVRC Single RX
3x
Voice users
4x
Voice users
1.5x
Voice users
Single Antenna Mobile Rx Diversity
CDMA2000 1X
1X Adv
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WCDMA Circuit Voice Has a Very Long Life Thanks to the Success of HSPA+
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
4G LTE
2030
~20 years
2G - GSM
~20 years
1G - AMPS
~20 years
Future Extrapolation
~20 years from launch of a new mobile technology generation to peak device volume
117 1Sources:
ABI June 2011 and Strategy Analytics Sept 2011, devices is only handset. A multimode device is counted only as the latest technology, e.g. a GSM/HSPA+/LTE device is counted as LTE.
2,000 HSPA Family 1,500 HSPA/HSPA+ MBB* connections in 2012 EV-DO Family TD-SCDMA LTE WiMax 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1,000
500
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Source: HSPA, EV-DO ,TD-SCDMA and LTE subs Wireless Intelligence (Oct 11) and WiMax - ABI (Aug 11)
WCDMA
Voice
Voice
Voice
WCDMA
WCDMA+
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Assumptions: single receive antenna and rake receiver assumed for voice, dual receive diversity assumed for data. 12WCDMA+ enhancements targeted for 3GPP R12 1AMR 12.2k vocoder. 2EVS 5.9kbps VBR Wideband mode.
5x more data
WCDMA+ Voice
WCDMA Voice
0 users
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25 users
48 users
VOICE LOAD
Assumptions: Single receive diversity and rake receiver assumed for voice, dual receive diversity assumed for data.
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1High
quality tanks to soft handover, proven interoperability and 10+ years of WCDMA circuit switched voice optimizations. 2Current consumption reduced by 10% with WCDMA+
Need to address all device segments including 50% of shipped handsets in 2015 that are not Smartphones3
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1Single
receive diversity and rake receiver required for stated gains. 2Such as device equalizer and interference cancellation using Q-ICETM 3Source: Average of Gartner, IDC and Strategy Analytics (September 2011).
WCDMA+
Triples Voice Spectral Efficiency
To free up resources for data
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HSPA+ Advanced
DO Advanced
LTE Advanced
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Macro/WAN
Cost Effective Wide Area Solution
Pico/Metro
Very Low-Cost Targeted Solution
Femto/LAN
Extreme Low-Cost Indoor Local Area Network
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Range Expansion
Optimizations for Even Higher Capacity and Enhanced User Data Rates
Picocell Range expansionbetter small cells utilization: HSPA+ Today (Frequency domain)
Restricted or open access Femtocells
LTE Advanced (Time domain) Smart Network Techniques exploiting uneven load even more beneficial for Hetnets
Its not just about adding small cells Optimization Further Improves Performance
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1X
Macro Only
LTE R8
LTE R8
1.4X
2.8X
LTE Advanced
Picocell
Macro +Picos
Macro +Picos
Picocell
Picocell
Range Expansion
BETTER UTILIZATION OF SMALL CELLS
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Assumptions: 4 Picos added per macro and 33% of users dropped in clusters closer to picos (hotspots) : 10 MHz FDD, 2x2 MIMO, 25 users and 500m ISD. Advanced interference management: enhanced time-domain adaptive resource partitioning, advanced receiver devices with enhanced RRM and RLM1Similar gain for the uplink
3.1X
Range Expansion
1.6 X
CARRIER 2
1X
Pico 4 Picos Dual-Carrier added Macro, Range Expansion Dual-Carrier Device
CARRIER 1
Macro
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4 Picos added per macro and 50 % of users dropped in clusters closer to picos (within 40m), Model PA3 full buffer ISD 500m. Enabling range expansion features: reduced power on second macro carrier , dual carrier devices and mitigating uplink and downlink imbalance (3dB Cell-individual offset (CIO) and pico noise-figure pad)
Quick Break
Please return promptly so we can start at 1:15 pm
Afternoon Session
! Devices and Operating Systems
Smartphones, tablets/readers Netbooks/Laptops/Ultrabooks Operating Systems/Ecosystems
Mobile Devices
Robert OHara
2000
500
0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2500
2000
1500
Mobile Fixed
1000
500
2010
6%
7%
13%
Tablets
! Total sales approaching those of PCs
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2016 Source: Gartner Worldwide units in 1000s (excluding eBook readers) Apple Google Microsoft RIM
eBook Readers
! Maintaining their distinction from tablets ! Color tablets start to blur that line
6% 5%
22%
! Google: Android
OS, devices (Motorola), app store HTC, LG, Samsung, others: devices
! RIM: BlackBerry
OS, devices, app store
500,000
100,000
! Google Android
Most popular platform Android Marketplace more open than Apples (this is good and bad) Fragmentation continues to be a problem Motorola acquisition will be challenging
Google is now competing with other Android phones Can Motorola survive? (Or was it just about the patents?)
! RIM BlackBerry
Market share in significant decline; management turnover and turmoil Has never attracted consumers New phone is controversial BlackBerry 10 is new OS based on QNX
No backward compatibility with BlackBerry 7 Winning developers will be a challenge
! Motorola
Feature phone business shrinking Does Google really want to make phones?
! Samsung
Now leading phone maker worldwide Not committed to one platform Creates multiple versions of same phone Expanding into tablets, music players
! Email, messaging and (even) phone calls ! Social media: Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare (LBS) ! Content consumption 80%
Some paid for Ad viewing
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Texting Used downloaded app Browsing Social networking Gaming Music listening
! ! ! !
Source: comScore
13%
! Google: Android
Growing fast, must avoid fragmentation
! Nokia: Symbian
No future with Nokia switching to Windows Phone 7
! RIM: BlackBerry
Still business leader, must become attractive to consumers
! Google: Android
Growing fast, must avoid fragmentation
5 of 6 correct!
! Nokia: Symbian
No future with Nokia switching to Windows Phone 7
! RIM: BlackBerry
Still business leader, must become attractive to consumers
! Google: Android
Challenges: Android fragmentation, Motorola acquisition
! Nokia: Symbian
RIP
! RIM: BlackBerry
Independent survival unlikely
Participants
Roundtable Panelists Roman Kikta Managing Partner and Co-Founder, Genesis Campus and Mobility Ventures Rory Moore CEO, CommNexus San Diego Mike Melito Director, South Coast Angel Fund Moderator Bob Chapin Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.
Quick Break
Please return promptly Sponsored by:
Bandwidth
! The speed or amount of information (data) sent to and from a device
Speed usually expressed in megabits per second (Mbps) Amount of information expressed as gigabytes per month (GB)
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TV
! Streaming video to computers, tablets, TVs ! Netflix
29.7% of overall downstream traffic in U.S. (Source Sandvine, 2011)
! Trend to watch video on tablets, laptops ! Existing TV providers want to beat Netflix
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High-Resolution Displays
! HD 2K ! New iPad 3K
! Future TV 4K
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New Uses
! Google Goggles
Image recognition on smartphones
! Google Glasses
An annotated view
! Messaging systems
BlackBerry Messenger iMessage
! Siri
Voice recognition, responses, actions 3 times more data
! The Cloud
Backups Audio, video, documents
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Data Trending Up
! Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011 ! Last year's mobile data traffic 8 times that of entire global Internet in 2000 ! Mobile video traffic 52% of traffic by end of 2011 Mobile Data Traffic ! 2011, 4G devices generated 28 times more traffic than 3G ! 2011, each tablet generated 3.4 times more traffic than average smartphone
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Analysis
! Mobile data will increase 18 to 20 times from 2011 to 2016 ! Cellular operators need to provide more capacity
More data, same or lower rates
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! Took Public Safety Alliance, APCO more than 3 years to convince Congress public safety needs D Block for sufficient bandwidth ! Authorization in tax bill signed into law February 22, 2012 ! Now they have the spectrum, a lot of work to do! ! Designed to AUGMENT, not replace, existing mission-critical voice networks ! Voice MAY be possible in the future
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D 5 62
D 5 67
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Single Nationwide Public Safety Broadband License (PSBL) (Licensed to the Public Safety Spectrum Trust) To Be Licensed to the First Responder Network Authority Spectrum Allocated To Public Safety By Congress (HR3630) on February 17, 2012 To Be Licensed to the First Responder Network Authority
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! IC and swat commanders will be able to see what sniper sees through scope ! Real-time, full-motion video (within reason) will change public safety forever ! Full 12-lead EKG, ultrasound, other vital signs for EMS ! Other applications will make life on the street easier and safer!
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! Public safety has its own PLMN-ID designator for this network
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! Verizon has upper C Band 11X11 MHz ! Public safety now has 10X10 MHz directly above C Block ! Cost to build device to cover entire band +$8-$10
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No LTE roaming agreements between major network operators Public safety wants PS band included ONLY in devices purchased by public safety
Even though public safety network will be secure Public safety does not want every device to include its spectrum; could result in hackers
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LightSquared
! LightSquared owns spectrum just above GPS band
Licensed for satellite with terrestrial fill-in
! Nov. 2010, asked FCC for waiver to modify license to permit full LTE terrestrial network ! Jan. 2011, FCC International Bureau granted conditional waiver ! GPS community organized to stop LightSquared ! Test conducted over several years
Proving LightSquared will interfere with GPS on lower spectrum
! LightSquared modified proposal to move terrestrial network higher in its band ! New tests, outcry from military, FAA, Congress, and others ! FCC stays waiver, LightSquared now in limbo, perhaps near bankruptcy
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DISH Network
! DISH also applied for waiver to use satellite spectrum for LTE terrestrial network ! DISHs spectrum is 2 GHz and above, further from GPS spectrum
GPS operates at 1215-1240 MHz
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FCC will re-allocate spectrum over time, probably find 300 MHz
Real question is if it can find next 200 MHz
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Spectrum Auctions
! Three types of auctions coming
Existing spectrum available for auction within next 3 years TV incentive auctions TV band repacking and auctions
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Incentive Auctions
! TV spectrum will be auctioned by incentive ! TV stations will be able to voluntarily give up 6-MHz channels, receive some auction proceeds
Permitted to relocate to lower portion of TV band
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TV Spectrum Re-Farming
! After incentive auctions, FCC will look at re-farming upper TV channels
E.g., would require TV stations between Channels 31 and 51 to relocate lower in the spectrum opening up 120 MHz of prime spectrum for broadband Cost to relocate a TV station a lot less than moving radio users off a portion of spectrum Spectrum would bring in $billions for the U.S. Treasury
! National Association of Broadcasters will fight repacking; has a lot of clout with Congress ! Prognosis: This spectrum is years away from becoming available!
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! Today
Most major markets have
3 or more wired broadband networks 4 nationwide wireless broadband networks 2-3 regional networks and/or MVNOs Thousands of Wi-Fi access pointsmore and more are free
4-5 regional networks Thousands of free access points 1 or 2 TV White Space network providers
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T-Mobiles Future
! T-Mobile spectrum-constrained in U.S.
Has spectrum in 1900-MHz, AWS-1 bands
1900-MHz spectrum for GSM/GPRS/EDGE (2G, 2+G systems) AWS-1 spectrum where HSPA/HSPA+ is deployed Needs LTE to compete; where will it get spectrum?
Additional AWS-1 in payment for collapse of AT&T merger Needs more spectrum soon, will deploy LTE
! Merger or acquisition
Who has spectrum? Clearwire/Sprint/MetroPCS/Leap Wireless Who has money? Probably not Clearwire or Sprint For comparison purposes
T-Mobile average 54 MHz per metro market AT&T average 91 MHz per metro market Verizon average 91 MHz per market Combination Sprint Nextel, Clearwire more than 200 MHz per market
(Sprint Nextel 53 MHz, Clearwire 150 MHz)
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! Options
Merge with Sprint Nextel, add 53 MHz of spectrum, new total 107 MHz
Would also own 54% of Clearwire with access to another 150 MHz
Could buy DISH outright Could wait for FCC to release some new spectrum and bid on it (not usable for up to 5 years) None of the above! The wild card in the U.S. network business
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Google
! Wants Internet to become congested and slow ! Owns more dark fiber than any other U.S. company ! Goal is to build Googlenet
Charge for high-speed premium access AND capture eyeballs
! Meanwhile, will invest in, partner in wireless and wireless companies, show up at wireless auctions ! Wants every eyeball in the world focused on its ads ! Already infiltrated Executive Branch of government via CTOs office, wont stop there
Pulling strings on broadband activities in many places Can bet it has more up its sleeves coming at us!
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! ! ! ! ! !
Clearwire will move quickly into LTE and take on more resellers AT&T will move to catch up with Verizon and make major gains LTE iPhone for U.S.-only will be announced in 2012 Windows 8 phones and tablets will catch on Android will lose market share due to Google control concerns RIM will license OS to others and rebuild
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! ! ! !
Sprint will do away with all-you-can-eat data plans PTT over cellular will become popular among younger users Apple will finally experience fierce competitor for iPad First public safety broadband systems will come online
Charlotte in time to be used during DNC Harris County, Texas
! Price of Wi-Fi on airlines will come down by 25% ! First TV White Space systems will be placed into service
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andrewseybold.com
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