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Chapter 1
Introduction to Si l ti Simulation

Compiled by: Mr. Shakil Ahmed (Assistant Professor, CED) SSUET

Outline
When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool When Simulation Is Not Appropriate pp p Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation Areas of Application Systems and System Environment Components of a System Discrete and Continuous Systems Model of a System y Types of Models DiscreteEvent System Simulation Steps in a Simulation Study

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Definition
A simulation is the imitation of the operation of realworld process or system over time.
Generation of artificial history and observation of that observation history

A model construct a conceptual framework that describes a system The behavior of a system that evolves over time is studied by developing a simulation model. model The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
Mathematical, logical Symbolic relationship between the entities

Goal of modeling and simulation

A model can be used to investigate a wide verity of what what if if questions about realworld system. Potential changes to the system can be simulated and predicate their impact on the system.
Find adequate parameters before implementation

So simulation can be used as

Analysis tool for predicating the effect of changes Design D i tool l to predicate di the h performance f of f new system

It is better to do simulation before implementation.

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How a model can be developed?

Mathematical Methods
Probability theory, algebraic method , Their results are accurate They have a few Number of parameters It is impossible for complex systems

Numerical computerbased simulation

It is simple It is useful for complex system

When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool

Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a subsystem with complex system Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated and find their effects A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about improvement of system Finding important input parameters with changing simulation inputs Simulation can be used with new design and policies before implementation Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help determine the requirement i t Simulation models designed for training make learning possible without the cost disruption A plan can be visualized with animated simulation The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service organization) is too complex that its internal interaction can be treated only by simulation

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When Simulation Is Not Appropriate

When the problem can be solved by common sense. When the problem can be solved analytically. If it is easier to perform direct experiments. If cost exceed savings. If resource or time are not available. If system behavior is too complex.
Like human behavior

Advantages and disadvantages of simulation

In contrast to optimization models, simulation models d l are run rather th th than solved. l d
Given as a set of inputs and model characteristics the model is run and the simulated behavior is observed

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Advantages of simulation
New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son on can be explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the real system. system New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems and can be tested without committing resources for their acquisition. Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speedup or slowdown of the phenomenon( clock is selfcontrol). Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and important variables to the performance. y can be performed p to discover where work in Bottleneck analysis process, the system is delayed. A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates. What if questions can be answered.

Disadvantages of simulation
Model building requires special training.
Vendors of simulation software have been actively developing packages that contain models that only need input (templates).

Simulation results can be difficult to interpret. g and analysis y can be time Simulation modeling consuming and expensive.
Many simulation software have output analysis.

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These four disadvantages, respectively, can be offset as follows:

Simulation Packages are available which contains template models In simulation packages output analysis could be done Simulation packages are getting more and more advanced Closedform models cannot analyze most of the complex systems

Areas of application
Manufacturing Applications Semiconductor Manufacturing Construction Engineering and project management Military application Logistics, Supply chain and distribution application Transportation modes and Traffic Business Process Simulation Health Care Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
Test beds for functional testing of controlsystem software

Risk analysis
Insurance, portfolio,...

Computer Simulation
CPU, Memory,

Network simulation
Internet backbone, LAN (Switch/Router), Wireless, PSTN ( call centre),...

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Systems and System Environment

A system is defined as a groups of objects that are joined together in some regular interaction toward the accomplishment of some purpose.
An automobile factory: Machines, components parts and workers operate jointly along assembly line

A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the system: system environment.
Factory : Arrival orders
Effect of supply on demand : relationship between factory output and arrival (activity of system)

Banks : arrival of customers

Components of system
Entity
An object of interest in the system : Machines in factory

Attribute Att ib t
The property of an entity : speed, capacity

Activity
A time period of specified length :welding, stamping

State
A collection of variables that describe the system in any time : status of machine (busy, idle, down,)

Event
A instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the system: breakdown

Endogenous
Activities and events occurring with the system

Exogenous
Activities and events occurring with the environment

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Exogenous Variables For Super Market Checkout

Number of checkout lanes Number of lanes staffed with cashier Number of lanes staffed with cashiers and baggers Checkout equipment used Express lanes Arrival pattern of customers Salaries of cashier and baggers Number of customer waiting Customer waiting time Cashier idle time Bagger idle time Customer checkout time

Endogenous Variables For Super Market Checkout

Examples of systems & components

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Discrete and Continuous Systems

A discrete system is one in which the state variables i bl change h only l at t a di discrete t set t of f points in time : Bank example

A continuous system is one in which the state variables i bl change h continuously ti l over ti time: H Head d of water behind the dam

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Model of a System
To study the system
it is i sometimes ti possible ibl to t experiments i t with ith system
This is not always possible (bank, factory,) A new system may not yet exist

Model: construct a conceptual framework that describes a system

It is necessary to consider those accepts of systems that affect the problem under investigation (unnecessary details must remove)

There is a fundamental difference between models used in science and engineering engineering. Science is concerned with natural world, whereas engineering is concerned primarily with the man made world. Science uses models to gain an understanding of the way things are in the natural world. Engineering uses models of the manmade world in an attempt to achieve what ought to be.

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Types of Models
When used as a noun the word model i li representation. implies t ti Th The word d model d l may also be used as an adjective carrying with it the implication of ideal. Finally, the word model may be used as a verb, as is the case where a woman models clothes.

Types of Models

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PHYSICAL MODELS Physical models are visual geometric equivalents, either as miniatures, i i enlargements, l or d duplicates li made d to the h same scale. l ANALOG MODELS Analog model; the focus is on similarity in relations. Analog models behave like the original. SCHEMATIC MODELS A schematic model is developed by taking a state or event and reducing it to a chart or diagram. MATHEMATICAL MODELS A mathematical model employs the language of mathematics and, like other models, may be a description & then explanation of the system it represents.

Physical Model (Iconic Model):

Table top or miniature model Simulated control room Physical flight simulator

Logical or Mathematical Model:

Set of approximations or assumptions, both structural and quantitative about the way system does or will work. Logical model are usually represented in computer program

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What to do with Logical Model: Need to find a way to deal with the model and analyze its behavior
For simple model use traditional mathematical tools like differential equation method, queuing theory, linear programming etc. For complicated system Computer Simulation

Model Development
In the model development steps we make the description of the system being modeled explicit by quantifying the relationship among all of the variables and the performance measure Acquiring sufficient understanding of a system to develop an appropriate model is one of the most difficult tasks in simulation Two approaches are used
Physical flow approach State change approach

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Physical Flow Approach

Identify the physical entities for which processing i or t transformation f ti constitutes tit t These entities are than tracked through the system, noting the points of processing and the branching decision rule that determines their route

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State Change Approach

State variables describe the status of the system in some meaningful way, such as number of people in the queue Given the current value of state variables, coupled with exogenous variables and the model structure, one can determine the future system status. Such variable can be used in calculating measure of performance such as customer waiting time. An event is the particular point in time when the status of the system changes

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The Simulation Process

Models and the process of simulation provide a convenient means of obtaining factual information about a system being designed or a system in being. In component design it is customary & feasible to build several prototypes, test them, and then modify the design based on the test results. This is often not possible in systems engineering because of the cost involved & the length of time required over the system life cycle.

DIRECT & INDIRECT EXPERIMENTATION

In direct experimentation, the object, state, or event, and/or the environment is subject to manipulation and the results are observed For example, observed. example a couple might rearrange the furniture in their living room by this method. Essentially, they move the furniture and observe the results. This process may then be repeated with second move and perhaps a third, until all logical alternatives have been exhausted. Eventually, one such move is subjectively judged best; the furniture is returned to this position and the experiment is completed. Direct experimentation such as this may be applied to the rearrangement of machinery in a factory. procedure is timeconsuming, g disruptive, p and costly. y Hence, Such a p simulation or indirect experimentation is employed, with templates representing the machinery to be moved.

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SIMULATION THROUGH INDIRECT EXPERIMENTATION In most operations, objective sought is the maximization of an economic measure of effectiveness. Rarely, if ever, can this be done by direct experimentation with the operations under study. For example, a sales price that maximizes profit cannot be determined by changing price over a range of values until the optimum price level is located. Such a method is expensive, timeconsuming, and in addition, may eventually destroy the price structure itself. Hence, operational polices are usually established by intuition, judgement, and simulation rather than by direct experimentation.

The primary use of simulation in systems engineering is to explore the effects of alternative system characteristics on system performance without actually producing & testing each candidate system. There is no available theory by which the best given system y simulation can be model for a g selected. The choice of an appropriate model is determined as much by the background of the systems analyst as the system itself.

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Characterizing a Simulation Model

Deterministic or Stochastic
Does the model contain stochastic components? Randomness is easy to add to a DES

Static or Dynamic
Is time a significant variable?

Continuous or Discrete
Does the system state evolve continuously or only at discrete points in time? Continuous: classical mechanics Discrete: queuing, inventory, machine shop models

How Simulation Gets Done

By Hand:
Pi calculation l l ti

Programming in General Purpose Languages:

Customizable and flexible Tedious and error prone

Simulation Languages:
GPSS, SIMSCRIPT, SIMAN Learn in detail about their features and how to use them effectively

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DiscreteEvent Simulation Model

Stochastic: some state variables are random Dynamic: time evolution is important DiscreteEvent: significant changes occur at discrete time instances

Model Taxonomy

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DES Model Development

How to develop a model: 1) D Determine t i th the goals l and d objectives bj ti 2) Build a conceptual model 3) Convert into a specification model 4) Convert into a computational model 5) Verify 6) Validate Typically an iterative process

Three Model Levels

Conceptual
Very y high g level How comprehensive should the model be? What are the state variables, which are dynamic, and which are important?

Specification
On paper May involve equations, pseudocode, etc. How will the model receive input?

Computational
A computer program Generalpurpose PL or simulation language?

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Verification vs. Validation

Verification
Computational model should be consistent with specification model Did we build the model right?

Validation
Computational model should be consistent with the system being analyzed Did we build the right model? Can an expert distinguish simulation output from system output?

Interactive graphics can prove valuable

Problem formulation Setting g of objectives j and overall project p j p plan Model conceptualization Data collection Model translation Verified? Validated? experimental p design g Production runs and analysis
More runs? Documentation and Reporting Implementation.

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Steps in Simulation Study

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