Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS Market Highlights (% change)
Production Target of 259 Million Tonne Foodgrains for 2013-14
The Government has set the production target of 259 MT foodgrains for the year 2013-14. Uttar Pradesh has highest production target of nearly 490 MT, followed by Punjab (288 MT), Andhra Pradesh (192 MT approx), Rajasthan (199 MT), and Haryana (181 MT). Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), National Food Security Mission (NFSM), National Horticulture Mission (NHM) and National Mission on Micro Irrigation (NMMI) are the major schemes/programmes implemented by Department of Agriculture & Cooperation for development of agriculture in the country. (Source: PIB,
GOI) Last Prev. day

as on August 13, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19230 5699 61.34 106.83 1321.2

1.49 1.55 0.35 0.68 -1.01

2.65 2.83 0.90 1.45 2.96

-3.65 -5.15 2.41 0.83 3.40

9.05 6.57 10.83 15.21 -17.92

.Source: Reuters

Bumper grain crop to weigh on prices

The US drought of 2012, the worst since the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, is finally releasing its grip on world agricultural markets. Propitious growing conditions from Brazil to Ukraine and the US have raised hopes of a sharp rebound in world cereals stocks, easing inflation pressures and pushing food security down the policy agenda. World corn, rice, soyabean and wheat production will break records this year, the US Department of Agriculture estimated this week. The International Grains Council in London expects grain inventories in critical exporters such as Argentina, Australia, Europe, Russia and the US to rise 40 per cent.
(Source: FinancialTimes)

Approval to GM Crops on Case to Case Basis

The Government of India is following a policy of case by case approval of genetically modified (GM) crops. Extensive evaluation and regulatory approval process takes place before any GM crop is approved for commercial cultivation. This includes generation of relevant biosafety information, its elaborate analysis to ensure food, feed and environmental safety. A final view on the commercialization of GM crop plants is taken only when there is a clear economic and technical justification besides suitability for environment and human consumption. Bt Cotton is the only Genetically Modified (GM) crop that has been introduced for commercial cultivation in the country. (Source: PIB, GOI)

Drier weather may begin to trim U.S. corn, soy yields

Drier weather for the next two weeks may begin to trim yield prospects for the U.S. corn and soybean crops, an agricultural meteorologist said on Tuesday. MDA Weather Services said the dry weather would begin to stress the developing corn crop a little bit and put a little more stress on the soybean crop. There will be crop-friendly showers late this week in the drier areas of western Iowa, eastern Nebraska and southwest Minnesota but no rain is expected elsewhere in the Midwest through at least Aug 27. The rains in the northwest will help crops in that area and other areas have plenty of soil moisture, so declines in overall yield prospects should be minimal. (Source: Reuters)

Paddy sowing in Bengal set to gather pace in 2 weeks

Inadequate rainfall notwithstanding, the West Bengal Government does not expect any decline in area under paddy cultivation this season. Last year, paddy was sown on 42 lakh hectares during the kharif season. According to State Agriculture Minister Moloy Ghatak, sowing has been delayed by nearly a month this year due to deficient rains. However, considering the recent showers, he expects sowing to gather momentum in the next two weeks. Sowing for this season will continue for another seven to 10 days. With rain lashing growing areas in the last two weeks, we expect sowing to reach last years level, Ghatak said. (Source: Business
Line)

Skyrocketing onion prices bring tears

Onion prices are skyrocketing. With its prices hovering around Rs 65 per kg, the budget of many homes has gone haywire. On Tuesday, it was selling at Rs 52/kg in the wholesale market while in retail shops it ranged from Rs 60 to Rs 65/kg. Prices of onion will continue to rise till October as there is inadequate stock to meet the demand. Bihar did produce adequate onion this year. But keeping the high prices in view, most of the traders are exporting it outside the state as it will fetch them more profit. Hoarding by traders is also another cause for the price rise. Incidentally, Bihar produces Rabi crop of onion only and there is no onion farming in the kharif season. The onion produced in Bihar is of very good quality and even better than that of Nasik. That is why Bihar onions are in huge demand outside the state. The farmers will not like to lose this golden opportunity and they are either hoarding it or exporting it at higher prices. (Source: Times of India)

Palm imports seen falling as rupee slumps to record

Palm oil imports by India, the world's largest buyer, probably declined for the first time in three months, as the rupee dropped to a record, prompting importers to scale back purchases. Inbound shipments fell 8.2 per cent to 550,000 tonnes in July from 599,128 tonnes a year earlier, according to the median of estimates from five processors and brokers compiled by Bloomberg. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India will release the data this week. Total vegetable oil imports, including for industrial use, dropped 2.3 per cent to 850,000 tonnes from 870,328 tonnes, the survey showed. A decline in purchases may boost stockpiles in Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia, just as the country starts its high-output cycle, pressuring futures in Kuala Lumpur. The rupee slumped to an all-time low this month on concern that the current-account deficit will widen from a record in the year ended March. The gap is the biggest risk to the $1.9 trillion economy, according to the central bank. (Source: Business Standard)

Cotton Corp sells 13.83 lakh bales in ongoing season

Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has sold about 13.83 lakh bales (170 kg each) of the natural fibre in the 2012-13 season and will offload another 9.03 lakh bales in a gradual manner in the domestic market. The cotton season runs between October and September. "CCI has procured 22.86 lakh bales of cotton under MSP during the current cotton season and is disposing off its stock in the domestic market," minister of state for textiles Panabaaka Lakshmi said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha.
(Source: moneycontrol.com)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures continued their upward trend yesterday on account of pickup in the demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. However, adequate stock positions coupled with higher sowing estimates of kharif pulses pressurized prices at higher levels towards the end. The spot settled 2.62% higher while the Futures settled 0.28% lower on Tuesday. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side has been imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year. According to government of Andhra Pradesh, total pulses sowing in the state have been covered in 6.03 lakh hectares compared to 5.78 lakh hectares during the same period last year as on 7th July, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 13, 2013 % change Last 3000 2810 Prev day 2.62 -0.28 WoW 2.74 1.41 MoM -1.64 -4.58
Source: Reuters

YoY -39.10 -41.53

Spread Matrix
Closing 3000 2810 2842 2922 20-Aug-13 -190 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Sep-13 -158 32 0 18-Oct-13 -78 112 80 0 as on Aug 12, 2013 Stocks as on 10th Aug 69919 57795 11957 139671 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 12th Aug 69098 57795 11957 138850 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected trade on a positive note in the intraday as improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season may support prices. Also, excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may support prices as it may raise fears of crop damage. However, higher output coupled with higher sowing of kharif pulses may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Resistance 2885-2925

2770-2806

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a positive note yesterday tracking higher international soybean. Also, excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh the main soybean growing region coupled with forecast of rains in Madhya Pradesh in the coming few days has raised fears of crop damage, preventing a sharp decline. The spot settled as well as the Futures settled 0.48% and 2.19% higher on Tuesday. Indias soy meal exports in July declined by 36.4% to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.68 lakh tonnes last year. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 11 August in the central India (major soy belt), were 37% above the LPA, with West and East Madhya Pradesh receiving 75% and 44% above normal respectively. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds th was recorded at 181.25 la ha on 8 Aug, 2013, an increase of 28.07 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean August futures corrected 1.02% on account of profit taking. However, the new crop November contract settled 0.2% higher extending previous days gains as the USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bushels from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bushels. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bushels in July to 220 mn bushels. Export demand from China also added fuel to the upside in the prices. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 64% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 58% of the crop is setting pods vs. 81% a year ago. Also, 88% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 96% a year ago.
Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13
th

Market Highlights

as on Aug 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.48 4.67 2.19 -1.02 0.95 1.51 4.34 2.68 1.73 2.96

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3586 3063 1360 3513 3303

MoM -5.61 -18.86 -13.02 1.73 -2.68

YoY -20.89 -32.93 -17.90 -21.05 -23.82

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3586 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3062.5 3063.5 3093.5 0 1 0 18-Oct-13 -523.5 20-Nov-13 -522.5

as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Dec-13 -492.5 31 30 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Sep-13 -182.3 28 0 18-Oct-13 -151.3 59 31 0 as on Aug 12, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 12, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 81 0 0 81 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3513.3 3303 3331 3362 20-Aug-13 -210.3 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 12th Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 61 Stocks as on 10th Aug 41 0 0 41 Stocks as on 10th Aug 1776 322 11254 644 55226 1962 1651 70835

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 12th Aug 1776 322 10952 644 51471 1962 1651 68778

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade on a positive note today on the back of tight supplies coupled and forecast of rains in MP in the next few days. However, overall higher sowing coupled with higher output estimates may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures continue to trade on a positive note on account of good demand for mustard on the back of tight supplies of soybean. However, comfortable supplies in the spot markets capped sharp upside and settled 1.51% higher on Tuesday. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed is expected to trade with a positive bias today tracking higher edible oilseed prices coupled with soybean crop damage fears. However, higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Support 3000-3030 3280-3306 Resistance 3090-3115 3350-3370
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures traded on a positive note and settled 1.27% higher in the September contract on account of festive demand coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee. Agri Ministrys proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 682.50 680.85 42.58 2330 508.70 Prev day 0.44 0.72 0.61 2.19 1.03

as on Aug 13, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 1.37 2.28 1.12 0.73 0.99

MoM -1.26 -1.11 -7.62 0.00 1.48

YoY -12.08 -12.49 -19.58 -17.29 -7.98

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 682.5 680.85 662.65 631.2 20-Aug-13 -1.65 0 20-Sep-13 -19.85 -18.2 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 18-Oct-13 -51.3 -49.65 -31.45 0 as on Aug 13, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil is expected to trade on a positive note today supported by festive demand, high soybean prices and an overall weakness in the Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil may cap sharp gains.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 508.7 503.8 493.6 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -4.9 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a positive note and settled 1.03% higher on Monday on account of festive demand coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee. Prices on the KLCE also recovered tracking higher export figures. Malaysian palm oil futures had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-10 increased 18.5% to 417,414 tons tonnes from 352,375 tonnes shipped during July 1-10. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -15.1 -10.2 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
CPO futures are expected to trade higher today on account of lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Support 656-660 504-506 Resistance 666-669 511-513

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a flat note yesterday and settled 0.02% higher on Tuesday. Prices have gained over the past few sessions on account of overseas as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat capped sharp upside. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,325- (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,500/tn (CNF).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13584 13225 5047 4718 Prev day 0.35 0.02 -0.80 0.90

as on Aug 13, 2013 % Change WoW 0.35 0.86 -4.78 2.30 MoM -1.36 -2.18 -9.81 -17.49 YoY -15.86 -13.90 -7.84 -14.50

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13583.8 13225 13350 13532.5 20-Aug-13 -358.8 0 20-Sep-13 -233.8 125 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 18-Oct-13 -51.3 307.5 182.5 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -328.7 0 20-Sep-13 -278.7 50 0 18-Oct-13 -198.7 130 80 0 as on Aug 12, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 10th Aug Process 1409 3728 5137 8655 NCDEX Sept contract 48 241 289 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5046.7 4718 4768 4848

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 12th Aug 1445 3840 5285 8655 Qty in Process 12 174 186 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures opened lower extending Mondays losses. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.34% higher in the September contract. Prices have declined sharply over the last few weeks on account of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode are report at 1,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.43 lakh ha as on 7 August, as against 0.44 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.49 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade with a negative bias today. Huge carryover stocks coupled with the ongoing sowing and a good monsoon progress may pressurize prices. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 14, 2013

Support 13200-13270 4630-4700 Resistance 13420-13500 4840-4900

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.7% higher on some improvement in demand in the spot ahead of the festive season. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also supported prices while ample supplies and surplus stocks with mills capped sharp gains. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS.. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the upee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3042 `/qtl 503.2 $/tonne 383.33 $/tonne 0.52 0.60 0.70 Last 3050

as on Aug 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.19 -0.48 1.16 3.05 4.23 MoM YoY -0.43 -15.42 2.53 4.83 7.41 -13.97 -12.33 -15.40

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3050 3042 3018 3030 20-Aug-13 -8 0 20-Sep-13 -32 -24 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 18-Oct-13 -20 -12 12 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 12th Aug 449 5532 0 923 6904 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 12, 2013 Stocks as on 10th Aug 449 5532 0 923 6904 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar settled 0.6% and 0.52% higher on Tuesday on account of warning of cold weather and frost in Brazil and Argentina raising fears of crop damage coupled with increased diversion of cane towards ethanol supported prices. Also, the USDA report reduced its forecast for domestic sugar production.. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.53 mn tn of sugar in the second half of July, up 5 percent from the 2.4 mn tn produced in the first half of the month. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Mexico is expected to ship more than 700,000 tonnes sugar outside the US in 2012-13 season making the country a global supplier in more than a decade. Output in Mexico is reported around 6.97 mn tn in 2012-13 year.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to continue to trade higher supported by festive demand coupled with higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS. However, ample supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Support 3003-3010 Resistance 3024-3030

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures traded on a positive note as the government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season coupled with bullish international prices and a weak and settled 1.34% and 1.43% higher on Tuesday. However, higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country have capped sharp gains. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1018.5 21210 91.59 94.9

as on Aug 13, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.34 3.66 1.43 4.84 1.70 6.72 0.90 4.52 MoM YoY 3.66 #N/A 7.94 19.49 7.59 28.46 2.98 13.79
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 21210 20310 20210 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -900 0 -1000 -100 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 12th Aug 4600 200 76300 9700 0 0 90800

as on Aug 12, 2013

Stocks as on 10th Aug 4900 200 95200 15500 0 0 115800 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton continued to trade on a positive note on Tuesday and settled 1.7% higher as the USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 43% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 25% against 21% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade higher today on account of permission of additional exports coupled with domestic demand. Also, bullish international markets may support prices. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Support 994-1006 20900-21050 Resistance 1030-1040 21330-21460
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| 14 Aug, 2013 2013
th

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
After touching a 21 month low, Guar complex recovered from lower levels on account of profit taking. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 3.22% and 3.04% higher on Tuesday. Prices have declined sharply on account of abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. Traders are not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4170 `/qtl 14297 `/qtl 11860 `/qtl 3.04 3.45 3.22 Last Prev day 5160 1.49

as on Aug 13, 2013 % change WoW 1.47 0.72 1.73 2.24 MoM -26.59 -40.85 -28.15 -41.14 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
nd

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5160 4170 4170 4180 18-Oct-13 -990 0 20-Nov-13 -990 0 0 -

as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Dec-13 -980 10 10 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2387 50 0 20-Dec-13 -2577 -140 -190 0 as on Aug 12, 2013 Stocks as on 10th Aug 50 102 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 14297 11860 11910 11720 18-Oct-13 -2437 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 12th Aug 50 92 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum futures may open higher extending yesterdays gains. However, prices may decline from higher levels and trade on a negative note as overall trend remains weak due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 14, 2013 Support 4040-4100 3970-4030 11570-11710 11420-11570 Resistance 4240-4300 4170-4230 12020-12160 11870-12010

www.angelcommodities.com