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MALAYSIA

HART MK
Valuation
- PER

Underperform Price (at 04:27, 06 Aug 2013 GMT) RM6.80


RM 3.30-4.90 4.25 -37.5 -35.1 Low 12-month target RM Upside/Downside % 12-month TSR % Volatility Index GICS sector Health Care Equipment & Services Market cap RMm Market cap US$m Free float % 30-day avg turnover US$m Number shares on issue m Investment fundamentals
Year end 31 Mar Revenue EBIT EBIT growth Reported profit Adjusted profit EPS rep EPS rep growth EPS adj EPS adj growth PER rep PER adj Total DPS Total div yield ROA ROE EV/EBITDA Net debt/equity P/BV 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E m 1,032.0 1,258.3 1,637.6 2,029.4 m 306.8 333.7 369.6 407.8 % 16.0 8.8 10.7 10.3 m 234.7 263.2 291.9 322.5 m 234.7 263.2 291.9 322.5 sen 32.1 33.2 36.3 40.2 % 127.0 3.2 9.6 10.5 sen 32.1 33.1 36.3 40.2 % 127.0 3.1 9.7 10.5 x 21.2 20.5 18.7 16.9 x 21.2 20.5 18.7 16.9 sen 16.1 16.4 18.2 20.1 % 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 % 36.2 29.6 26.3 26.5 % 33.9 28.6 25.4 24.6 x 14.2 14.3 12.4 11.0 % -22.2 -15.9 -10.1 -6.9 x 6.5 5.1 4.4 3.9

Hartalega
Tracking along, no big surprises
Event
Hartalega reported their 1Q14 results after market close on Tuesday (06-

5,024 1,532 15 0.8 738.9

Aug). 1Q14 net profit of RM62.9mn (+18% YoY, 1% QoQ) is in line with both consensus and our estimates, as it constitutes 24% of our and consensus estimates. Given the improving results were within expectation and share price has been outperforming its peers since January (42.9% vs industry avg 36.4%), at 20.5x FY14E PER, we believe the stock is fully valued.

Impact
Improving profit but margin weakened. The +18% YoY net profit growth is

impressive, but it is still within our expectation. The improvement in earnings was derived from stronger sales volume, but as competition intensifies, profitability per glove (EBITDA per glove) continues on a declining trend (4Q13: 3.40sen per glove, 1Q14: 3.29sen per glove). As more new capacity is expected to be operational, the decline is inevitable, in our view.
Continue maintaining net cash position. Hartalega remains at a net cash

position, given the limited capex spending in Q1, as ground work at the Sepang (NGC plant) site has only just started. Despite the fact that the signing of the sales and purchase agreement was concluded in June, Hartalega has yet to pay for the land (RM97mn) pending regulatory approval for land conversion. Given that management expect the conversion to be granted soon, inclusive of the capex need for preliminary works, Hartalegas gearing ratio is likely to increase from -22% in Mar 13 to -16% by Mar 14.
Dilution has started. The 73.1mn warrants that were issued in June 2012

HART MK rel KLCI performance, & rec history

are crucial for Hartalega, as the money raised from the conversion is needed for its NGC plant expansion project. As the owner that owns 55.67% stake has started converting some of the warrants in July 13, we believe the dilution will continue. The outstanding warrants are 10% of the current sharebase. As such, despite estimating 12.1% net profit growth for FY14E, post the dilution, we expect EPS to grow by only 3.2%.

Earnings and target price revision


No change

Price catalyst
Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

12-month price target: RM4.25 based on a PER methodology. Catalyst: NGC progress update

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, August 2013 (all figures in MYR unless noted)

Action and recommendation


Analyst(s)
Chi Hoong Ng +60 3 2059 8985 chihoong.ng@macquarie.com

At 21x FY14E PER, we believe the stock is fully valued, given the unattractive

6 August 2013

dividend yield at 2.4% (vs ~3% of Top Glove) and limited EPS growth for the year at 3%, hence we reiterate our Underperform recommendation on the stock.

Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.

Macquarie Research

Hartalega

Hartalega (HART MK, Underperform, Target Price: RM4.25)


Quarterly Results Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth yoy (adj) m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m sen sen % 4Q/13A 270 99 171 91 9 0 0 81 -0 0 0 0 0 81 -19 62 -0 62 62 8.5 8.5 128.8 1Q/14E 278 98 180 82 9 0 0 73 -1 0 0 0 0 72 -14 58 -0 58 58 7.5 7.5 2.9 2Q/14E 301 104 197 89 9 0 0 80 -1 0 0 0 0 79 -16 63 -0 63 63 7.8 7.8 -2.5 3Q/14E 328 112 216 97 9 0 0 88 -1 0 0 0 0 87 -17 69 -0 69 69 8.6 8.6 4.0 Profit & Loss Revenue Gross Profit Cost of Goods Sold EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation of Goodwill Other Amortisation EBIT Net Interest Income Associates Exceptionals Forex Gains / Losses Other Pre-Tax Income Pre-Tax Profit Tax Expense Net Profit Minority Interests Reported Earnings Adjusted Earnings EPS (rep) EPS (adj) EPS Growth (adj) PE (rep) PE (adj) Total DPS Total Div Yield Weighted Average Shares Period End Shares m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m sen sen % x x sen % m m 2013A 1,032 374 658 339 32 0 0 307 -1 0 0 0 0 306 -71 235 -0 235 235 32.1 32.1 127.0 15.4 15.4 16.1 3.3 731 730 2014E 1,258 432 827 371 37 0 0 334 -4 0 0 0 0 330 -66 264 -1 263 263 33.2 33.1 3.1 20.5 20.5 16.4 2.4 794 803 2015E 1,638 506 1,131 426 57 0 0 370 -4 0 0 0 0 366 -73 292 -1 292 292 36.3 36.3 9.7 18.7 18.7 18.2 2.7 803 803 2016E 2,029 584 1,445 482 75 0 0 408 -4 0 0 0 0 404 -81 323 -1 322 322 40.2 40.2 10.5 16.9 16.9 20.1 3.0 803 803

EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Earnings Split Revenue Growth EBIT Growth Profit and Loss Ratios Revenue Growth EBITDA Growth EBIT Growth Gross Profit Margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Net Profit Margin Payout Ratio EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT Balance Sheet Ratios ROE ROA ROIC Net Debt/Equity Interest Cover Price/Book Book Value per Share

% % % % %

33.7 30.2 26.5 12.3 17.9 2013A

29.6 26.3 21.9 12.2 4.2 2014E 21.9 9.4 8.8 34.3 29.4 26.5 21.0 49.5 14.3 15.9

29.5 26.4 23.8 18.1 4.0 2015E 30.1 15.1 10.7 30.9 26.0 22.6 17.9 50.0 12.4 14.3

29.5 26.7 26.2 26.4 11.4 2016E 23.9 13.2 10.3 28.8 23.8 20.1 15.9 50.0 11.0 13.0

Cashflow Analysis EBITDA Tax Paid Chgs in Working Cap Net Interest Paid Other Operating Cashflow Acquisitions Capex Asset Sales Other Investing Cashflow Dividend (Ordinary) Equity Raised Debt Movements Other Financing Cashflow Net Chg in Cash/Debt Free Cashflow Balance Sheet Cash Receivables Inventories Investments Fixed Assets Intangibles Other Assets Total Assets Payables Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Provisions Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Shareholders' Funds Minority Interests Other Total S/H Equity Total Liab & S/H Funds m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m m

2013A 339 -59 36 -1 -178 136 -0 -187 0 0 -187 -99 182 -12 0 70 19 -51 2013A 182 125 87 1 535 7 0 936 93 8 4 0 65 170 766 1 0 767 936

2014E 371 -66 -93 -4 169 377 0 -250 0 0 -250 -119 -7 96 0 -30 97 127 2014E 279 140 143 1 748 7 0 1,319 73 8 100 0 64 245 1,073 1 0 1,074 1,319

2015E 426 -73 -59 -4 -1 290 0 -200 0 0 -200 -137 0 -0 0 -138 -48 90 2015E 231 177 189 1 891 7 0 1,496 96 8 100 0 64 268 1,227 1 0 1,228 1,496

2016E 482 -81 -72 -4 -1 325 0 -200 0 0 -200 -152 0 -108 0 -259 -134 125 2016E 97 222 244 1 1,017 7 0 1,587 124 0 0 0 64 188 1,398 1 0 1,399 1,587

% % % % % % % % x x

10.8 15.4 16.0 36.2 32.8 29.7 22.8 50.1 10.1 11.2

% % % % x x

33.9 36.2 49.0 -22.2 339.7 4.7 1.0

28.6 29.6 44.8 -15.9 82.1 5.1 1.3

25.4 26.3 32.7 -10.1 90.9 4.4 1.5

24.6 26.5 29.5 -6.9 100.3 3.9 1.7

All figures in MYR unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, August 2013

Other company mentioned: Top Glove (TOPG MK, RM6.00, Neutral, TP: RM5.95).

6 August 2013

Macquarie Research Important disclosures:


Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie Asia/Europe Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform expected return >+10% Neutral expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell) return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Hartalega
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very highhighest risk Stock should be expected to move up or down 60100% in a year investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High stock should be expected to move up or down at least 4060% in a year investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 3040% in a year. Lowmedium stock should be expected to move up or down at least 2530% in a year. Low stock should be expected to move up or down at least 1525% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions For quarter ending 30 June 2013


Outperform Neutral Underperform AU/NZ 49.80% 39.85% 10.35% Asia 57.68% 24.45% 17.87% RSA 48.05% 42.86% 9.09% USA 41.13% 54.70% 4.17% CA 61.75% 34.42% 3.83% EUR 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.60% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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Hartalega

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6 August 2013

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Gurvinder Brar (Global) Josh Holcroft (Asia). Burke Lau (Asia) Simon Rigney (Asia, Japan) Eric Yeung (Asia) Suni Kim (Japan)

Consumer and Gaming


Gary Pinge (Asia) Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) Amit Mishra (India) Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) Toby Williams (Japan) HongSuk Na (Korea) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) Best Waiyanont (Thailand)

Strategy/Country
Viktor Shvets (Asia) Chetan Seth (Asia) Joshua van Lin (Asia Micro) Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) David Ng (China, Hong Kong) Jiong Shao (China) Rakesh Arora (India) Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) Chan Hwang (Korea) Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Conrad Werner (Singapore) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) David Gambrill (Thailand)

Technology
Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) Nitin Mohta (India) Claudio Aritomi (Japan) Damian Thong (Japan) David Gibson (Japan) George Chang (Japan) Daniel Kim (Korea) Soyun Shin (Korea) Daniel Chang (Taiwan) Tammy Lai (Taiwan)

Emerging Leaders
Jake Lynch (China, Asia) Adam Worthington (ASEAN) Michael Newman (Japan)

Industrials
Janet Lewis (Asia) Patrick Dai (China) Saiyi He (China) Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) Kenjin Hotta (Japan) Juwon Lee (Korea) Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) David Gambrill (Thailand)

Telecoms
Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) Danny Chu (China, Hong Kong) Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia, Singapore) Alex Pomento (Philippines) Joseph Quinn (Taiwan)

Find our research at


Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email macresearch@macquarie.com for access

Insurance
Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) Chung Jun Yun (Korea)

Software and Internet


David Gibson (Asia) Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) Nitin Mohta (India) Nathan Ramler (Japan) Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) Alex Pomento (Philippines)

Asia Sales
Regional Heads of Sales
Robin Black (Asia) Chris Gray (ASEAN) Peter Slater (Boston) Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) Thomas Renz (Geneva) Bharat Rawla (India) Chris Gould (Indonesia) Miki Edelman (Japan) John Jay Lee (Korea) Ruben Boopalan (Malaysia) Gino C Rojas (Philippines) Eric Roles (New York) Paul Colaco (New York) (852) 3922 2074 (65) 6601 0288 (1 617) 598 2502 (852) 3922 2061 (41) 22 818 7712 (9122) 6720 4100 (6221) 515 1555 (813) 3512 7857 (822) 3705 9988 (603) 2059 8888 (632) 857 0861 (1 212) 231 2559 (1 212) 231 2496

Regional Heads of Sales contd


Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) Erica Wang (Taiwan) Angus Kent (Thailand) Julien Roux (UK/Europe) Sean Alexander (Generalist) Justin Crawford (Asia) (1 415) 762 5001 (8862) 2734 7586 (662) 694 7601 (44) 20 3037 4867 (852) 3922 2101 (852) 3922 2065

Sales Trading contd


Mike Keen (UK/Europe) Chris Reale (New York) Marc Rosa (New York) Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) Michael Santos (Philippines) Isaac Huang (Taiwan) Dominic Shore (Thailand) (44) 20 3037 4905 (1 212) 231 2555 (1 212) 231 2555 (6221) 515 1555 (603) 2059 8888 (632) 857 0813 (8862) 2734 7582 (662) 694 7707

Regional Head of Distribution Sales Trading


Adam Zaki (Asia) Phil Sellaroli (Japan) Kenneth Cheung (Singapore) (852) 3922 2002 (813) 3512 7837 (65) 6601 0288

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