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Chapter One: Introduction 1.1 Background to this Report 1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report 1.3 Methodology of this Report 1.3.1 Forecasting Methodology 1.3.2 Materials Cost Assumptions 1.3.3 General Economic Assumptions 1.4 Sources of Data 1.5 Plan of this Report Chapter Two: Recent Technology Directions for Transparent Conductors 2.1 Developments in the ITO Sector 2.1.1 Update on the Indium Saga: The Real Implications 2.1.2 Supply Chain Developments 2.1.3 Printed ITO: Not Just for R&D Anymore? 2.1.4 Prospects for ITO Film Markets 2.1.5 The China Factor Updated 2.2 Other Transparent Conducting Oxides: New R&D, New Uses 2.2.1 Tin Oxide and its Variants 2.2.2 Zinc Oxide and its Variants 2.2.3 More TCOs for the Future? 2.2.4 are Other TCOs Really a Drop-In Replacement? 2.3 Silver: Meshes, Grids and Inks 2.3.1 Nanosilver Solutions: Cambrios and the Others 2.3.2 Silver Grids Large and Small 2.3.3 Suppliers and Strategies in Silver Transparent Conductors 2.3.4 Recent and Future Manufacturing Improvements 2.4 Copper, Unipixel and the Future of Transparent Conductors 2.5 Conductive Polymers as Transparent Conductors: Recent Successes 2.5.1 Technology Developments: New Polymers 2.5.2 Key Suppliers and their Strategies 2.5 Carbon Nanotubes as Transparent Conductors: If Not Now When? 2.5.1 Technology Progress: Better Nanotubes, Better Inks 2.5.2 Key Suppliers and their Strategies 2.5.3 Current and Future Manufacturing Processes 2.6 Graphene: Does it Stand a Chance in the Transparent Conductor Market? 2.12 Key Points Made in this Chapter Chapter Three: Display- and Lighting-Related Markets for Transparent Conductors: Eight-Year Forecasts 3.1 Conventional Liquid Crystal Displays: Stuck On ITO Forever? 3.1.1 What It Will Take to Get Non-ITO Transparent Conductors into LCD Fabs? 3.1.2 A Possible Roadmap for the Adoption of Non-ITO Transparent Conductors in the LCD Sector 3.1.3 What If the LCD Display Sector Never Buy Non-ITO Transparent Conductors?
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3.1.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductor Use in the LCD Display Industry 3.2 Touch Screens Sensors: Everyones Favorite Opportunity 3.2.1 Impact on Transparent Conductor Market Microsofts and Intels New Push for Touch Interfaces 3.2.2 But the Shift to In-Cell/On-Cell May Hurt the Prospects for Transparent Conductors 3.2.3 The Evolving Market for Transparent Conductors in ProCap and Resistive Displays 3.2.4 Other Opportunities for Transparent Conductors in the Touch Sensor Segment 3.2.5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Touch-Screen Sensor Industry 3.3 Transparent Conductors for the New OLED Market 3.3.1 OLED Industry Progress in 2013 and 2014 3.3.2 Special Requirements for Transparent Conductors in the OLED Sector: Large Panels and the Quest to Get Rid of ITO 3.3.3 How OLEDs Potentially Shrink the TC Market 3.3.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the OLED Display and Lighting Market 3.4 Flexible Displays: Mythology and Reality 3.4.1 Technology Constraints and Transparent Conductor Choice in Flexible Displays 3.4.2 Types of Flexible Displays and Likely Market Acceptance: Implications for Transparent Conductors 3.4.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Flexible Display Market 3.5 Other Opportunities for Transparent Conductors in Displays and Lighting 3.5.1 E-Paper 3.5.2 Plasma Displays 3.5.3 Transparent Displays 3.5.4 LED Lighting 3.5.5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Other Display and Lighting Markets 3.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter Chapter Four: Solar Panel Markets for Transparent Conductors: Eight-Year Forecasts 4.1 The Coming Renaissance for Thin-Film PV: Implications for the Transparent Conductor Business 4.1.1 The Case of CIGS 4.1.2 Transparent Conductors and BIPV 4.1.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the Thin-Film PV Market 4.2 Organic PV and Dye Sensitized Cells: Still Opportunity for Transparent Conductor Suppliers 4.2.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductors in the OPV/DSC Market 4.3 Key Points Made in this Chapter
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Chapter Five: Windows and Other Markets for Transparent Conductors: Eight-Year Forecasts 5.1 Applications for Transparent Conductors in Windows 5.1.1 Smart Windows 5.1.2 Anti-Static Applications 5.1.3 IR/UV Protection 5.1.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductors for Windows Applications 5.2 Electronics/Semiconductor Industry Applications for Transparent Conductor Market 5.2.1 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductors for Electronics/Semiconductor Industry 5.3 Yet Other Markets for Transparent Conductors 5.4 Key Points Made in this Chapter Chapter Six: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Transparent Conductor Markets 6.1 Eight-Year Forecasts of ITO and Other Transparent Conductors by Material Type 6.1.1 Eight-Year Forecast of ITO Markets 6.1.2 Eight-Year Forecast of non-ITO TCO Markets 6.1.3 Eight-Year Forecast of ITO/TCO Ink Markets 6.1.4 Eight-Year Forecast of Carbon Nanotube-based Transparent Conductor Markets 6.1.5 Eight-Year Forecast of Silver-based Transparent Conductors Film Markets 6.1.6 Eight-Year Forecast of Other Metallic Transparent Conductor Markets 6.1.7 Eight-Year Forecast of Transparent Conductive Polymer Markets 6.1.8 Eight-Year Forecast of Other Transparent Conductor Materials Markets 6.2 Summary of Market Forecasts by Material and Application Type 6.2.1 Summary by Type of Material 6.2.2 Summary by Applications 6.3 Summary of ITO Forecasts by Type of ITO Product: Targets, Film and Coated Glass 6.4 Final Thoughts on Alternative Scenarios for Transparent Conductor Materials Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report About the Author RELATED REPORTS Transparent Conductor Markets 2012 Transparent Conductors in Thin Film and Organic Photovoltaics-2012 The Business Case for Indium Tin Oxide and Alternative Transparent Conductors -
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Thus, until very recently, alternative TC makers, while thinking of the touch display market as lowhanging fruit also regarded this market as no more than a place to start. To illustrate the point, an executive at a leading supplier of alternative TCs told us some time back that his (relatively small) factory had the capacity to produce all the transparent conductive film that the touch module market now needed. In other words, in order to build a sizeable business, alternative TC suppliers have been aware for some time that they would have to break into other market areas that would not be so easy to penetrate either because of intrinsic risks or because of entrenched use of ITO. What the latest rise in the fortunes of ITO does is buy time and give the alternative TC firms more growing room for the next few years. In other words, Microsoft has inadvertently reduced the risk for the alternative suppliers. And while Windows 8-based touch has been praised for mobile devices, it has not received the same level of praise for its use on legacy desktop machines. So Windows 8 users may be driven towards the use of a new class of desktop and notebook machines by the need for touch to make the best of windows. Page | 6
1.1.2 But the Latest Tech Trends from the Display Industry Should Worry the Transparent Conductor Sector
The fly in the ointment is that whileall things being equalthe addressable market for the alternative TCs is expanding thanks to Microsoft, all things are not at all equal. The point here is that there are two trends in the display industry that seem to be working towards the use of TCs in general. The two trends that we are talking about here are the rise of the OLEDs and the incell/on-cell touch technology. OLED displays are emissive, which is to say they dont need backlightin g, which is to say they only need one layer of TC. Thus, consider a thought experiment in which LCD displays give way to OLED displays over a period of time; this would essentially halve the effective demand for TCs of both the ITO and non-ITO variety. Something very similar can be said about the arrival on the scene of in-cell and on-cell touch technology. Both of these newer touch technologies integrate touch directly into LCD display and eliminate the need for TCs for the touch module either partly or completely. OLED displays have a lot going for them; they are ultra-thin and offer bright glowing colors. They could also be flexible. The business case for in-cell and on-cell can also be easily made. Not only do they squeeze cost out of the BOM of conventional displays, but they enable the main display makers to begin to control the value embedded in touch; formerly this value flowed to the major touch vendors. So in-cell, and on-cell and OLEDs are all technologies that have made decent progress in the past year and they are all in their way TC eliminators, so NanoMarkets believes that these areas all represent things for TC manufacturers of all stripes to worry about. But they shouldnt worry too much. OLEDs are doing well in the mobile display space, but in TVs, not so much. And it is quite possible that LCDs may be able to compete with OLED TVs using quantum dot-enhanced back lighting. And OLEDs may actually lead to a new market for TCs as they start to be used more widely in the lighting sector. Meanwhile, while NanoMarkets sees in-
cell and on-cell touch as an unstoppable force, current market shares for these two technologies remain low.
Then there is the matter of solar panels. Thin-film solar panels are the one product that already uses non-ITO TCs, and may well be open to new materials if they can prove in at acceptable prices. However, the devastation that has struck the solar industry in the past few years or so, has meant that manufacturers of the newer TCs have not paid that much attention to solar for a while. We expect that growth in the solar panel market will be fairly respectable over the next few years, since the main players in this space no longer have their fingers on the self-destruct button. So it seems likely that some of the TC firms will start inve stigating solar again, if they arent already. However, they clearly need to be cautious; growth in the sector is going to be nowhere near as fast as they might remember from a few years back. Perhaps more important, to a much greater extent than in the display sector, materials sold into the PV sector are price sensitive. It is never fun to compete on price and in this case, there is the added conundrum for TC makers that they may have to find a pricing policy that sells more or less the same materials into the PV sector and display sector, but at different prices. Finally, the penetration of the LCD market by non-ITO TCs will not be easy to achieve, but TC makers from here on out can at least imagine a prosperous future in which there are some reasons to suppose that eventually non-ITO TCs will be adopted in the LCD market. Page | 8
last year at the renewed prospects in the solar panel sector and tried to seek out some niche applications outside of the display and PV sectors. This report is international in scope. The forecasts herein are worldwide forecasts and we have not been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in this report or interviewed in order to collect information. Where there are markets and opportunities that are oriented in one Page | 9 way or another to one particular region we note this. For example, many of the important OEMs for TCs are in the display industry, which is strongly focused in Asia, while thin-film PV makers tend to be in the U.S. and Europe.