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If slowdown in household consumption and protracted global recovery were not enough, Indian businesses (a large many of them have partially or substantially unhedged forex exposure) will now have to deal with the reality of a weakened rupee that finally breached the psychological mark of 60 to a dollar on June 26. And there is no guarantee that it will not go down further after all, there is not much change in Indias macroeconomic fundamentals. Since the start of the sub-prime crisis in 2007-08, central banks (US Federal Reserve, in particular) had injected $12 trillion, that is roughly 16 per cent of the worlds GDP which primarily kept emerging economies such as India and others afloat in the post-crisis period. The recent global sell-off of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities post the Feds hint at tightening of the lid that oozes out cheap money into the global financial system, is an indication of the things to come.
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crude, edible oil and fertilisers will go up. Since 60 per cent of Indias edible oil requirements are met by imports, a depreciating rupee will adversely affect margins of food processing firms. Increase in rupee cost of crude oil will increase the under-recoveries of oil marketing companies and, in turn, subsidy burden, thereby adding to Indias fiscal woes in the run-up to the general election. Most Indian corporates keep up to 25 per cent of their forex exposure un-hedged. Net importing firms manufacturing consumer durables or electronics, and infrastructure companies that have heavily borrowed in foreign currencies will witness erosion of their margins. Moreover, in such a scenario, the RBI may have to postpone rate cuts, which will disappoint India Inc. As a result, equity markets will get a cold reception from investors, further dampening the sentiment. Ideally, rupee depreciation boosts a countrys net exports depending upon the demand elasticities of its exportables and importables. Thus, firms in the net exporting sectors such as IT & ITES, pharmaceuticals, textiles and clothing should post better results. However, textile and IT sectors lack pricing power and may have to under-cut price in line with depreciating rupee. Further, simultaneous depreciation of the currencies of other emerging markets (often competing in third country export markets) will erode the actual gain on Indias export competitiveness caused by the decline of rupee. In FY 2012, the top 559 listed companies, excluding oil and gas and banks, imported goods and services worth $83 billion when their combined export was worth $57 billion. Thus, net importing firms will also lose from the declining rupee. However, weakened rupee will provide some relief to domestic manufacturers of items such as apparel as imported substitutes will become expensive.
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exports from day one. Checking coal import by ramping up domestic production and removing export duties on iron ore will give quick result. Dematerialising investment in gold will reduce its import. Economic pricing of fertiliser (urea) and petro products will encourage their efficient use and lead to saving of foreign exchange. India also needs to push export of IT services beyond the EU and the US. (Ritesh Kumar Singh is Group Economist of a corporate house. Prerna Sharma is a research analyst agri. commodities. Views are personal.)
(This article was published on July 5, 2013)
Keywords: weakening rupee, govt and rupee policy, current account deficit, Fed QE policy, tapering of funds, economy, financial markets
Printable version | Jul 6, 2013 8:59:14 PM | http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/falling-rupee-flawed-policy/article4885341.ece The Hindu Business Line
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