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compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity? 20078111Review ArticleChallenges in obesity epidemiology D. Canoy & I. Buchan
obesity reviews
Address for correspondence: Dr I Buchan, NIBHI, Medical School, The University of Manchester, Stopford Building, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PT, UK. E-mail: buchan@manchester.ac.uk
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
While English obesity prevalence rose three- to fourfold across the two decades from 1980 (16), it doubled in the USA over a similar period, with the USA starting from a higher baseline (17). From studies of US veterans, it has been proposed that the annual growth rate of median BMI was about 0.3% between 1900 and 1976 but almost doubled to 0.5% per year between 1988 and 2000 (18). Recently (19992004), obesity prevalence in US women seems to have stopped rising (19).
between different towns (27). London and Yorkshire had slightly higher obesity prevalence in children compared with national average in England in 2001 and 2002, but there was no clear gradient across different regions in the country (28). Although regional differences in mean BMI in England have been observed, there was no clear north south divide (29). A recent UK study has suggested a temporo-spatial/spread pattern to rising childhood adiposity (30). In developing countries, obesity is observed more in urban than in rural areas (31,32).
Geographical variation
Geographical variation in the prevalence of obesity among middle-aged men has been observed, with the difference in the prevalence of those with higher BMI by up to twofold
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
or boys in the general population (41). In the USA, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity among 6 11-year-olds in 19761980 was 6.5% and in 19992002 was 15.8% (similar prevalence between boys and girls) (38). During this period, a high prevalence was noted in Black females (from 11.2% to 22.8%) and Hispanic males (from 13.3% to 26.5%) as compared with White males (from 6.1% to 14.0%) and White females (from 5.5% to 13.1%). The largest increases in prevalence were among Black males (from 6.8% to 17%) and Black females (from 11.2% to 22.8%) (39).
are a greater risk for obesity than high-sugar, low-fat diets (51). In the UK, the proportion of energy consumed as fat has been increasing while that of carbohydrates has been decreasing since the 1970s (44). In the USA, however, the proportion of energy consumed as fat has decreased (17). Although the contribution of sugar intake to the obesity epidemic is debatable (50), intake of high-fructose corn syrup, the caloric sweetener used in soft drinks in the USA in the 1970s through to the 1990s, has been linked with obesity (52). Fructose as a percentage of energy intake is high in early infancy but its main source is milk products (53), whereas non-alcoholic beverages including soft drinks become a major source of added fructose later on. Increased intake of carbonated drinks in schools has been related to higher percentages of overweight and obese children (54). In the USA, increased consumption of soft drinks and sugared beverages has been observed since the 1970s (55). The consumption of high-fructose corn syrup increased by >1000% over the three decades up to the early 2000s, while cane sugar intake decreased (52). In 1977, sweetened beverages formed only 3.9% of total energy intake by 1996 this had risen to 9%. Patterns of food consumption may also contribute to the obesity epidemic. Fast-food consumption has been associated with more energy-dense food, higher-fat intake and more consumption of sugar-containing drinks (5658). In a survey in the USA, one in four ate fast food on a normal day (56) and those who ate fast food during the survey day had a higher BMI. The frequency of eating fast food has been prospectively associated with increased weight gain (59). Fast-food expenditure increased from 20% in 1970 to 40% in 1995 in the USA as a percentage of total energy intake, it increased from 2% in 1970 to 10% in 1995 (60). There was a shift between 1977 and 1996 towards food eaten away from the home (45). Considering that food portion sizes increased in the USA between the survey periods 19771978 and 19941996 particularly for soft drinks (62%), fruit drinks (48%), French fries (57%) and salty snacks (58%) (61), this trend implies patterns of food consumption could play an important role in the obesity epidemic. In developing countries, obesity has been associated with higher socioeconomic status but the epidemic spread to those in lower socioeconomic groups when high-fat diets become more affordable (32). Nevertheless, despite the globalization of the obesity epidemic, there remains a wide difference in obesity prevalence between developed and developing countries that may be accounted for by differences in dietary habit. For example, the dietary contribution of fast food and soft drinks remains high among children in the USA but relatively low in Russia, China and the Philippines (62).
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
between 1997 and 2003 decreased while the prevalence of obesity increased (71). However, it remains unclear how sedentary lifestyle could be an explanation for increasing obesity prevalence in early childhood, particularly in those below 4 years of age (22).
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
which could have a stronger effect on mortality and circulatory disease than obesity (87). This might partly explain the complex picture of rising obesity and falling coronary heart disease but the full explanation is missing: generally, coronary heart disease is the main cause of excess mortality in obesity, but the contribution of coronary heart disease to overall mortality is dropping this might speciously suggest that obesity is becoming a weaker determinant of disease. Given that BMI is a relatively weak cardiovascular risk factor, most of the trends in cardiovascular diseases are likely to be due to improved diet and lifestyle and improved treatment and control of risk factors other than obesity (89). A further unknown in relating BMI to disease risk is the equity of improved risk factor control and treatments between obese and non-obese people. If obesity is assumed to be a stable determinant of coronary heart disease, then further gains of about 8% to 10% reduction in coronary heart disease might be achieved if mean BMI was reduced (87,89,90). It remains unclear whether or not increasing obesity prevalence will cancel out further reductions in coronary heart disease incidence (or reverse the decreasing trend). Despite the reduction in mean cholesterol in the 1980s and 1990s in the USA, smaller reductions were observed during the late 1990s even with an increase in the use of cholesterol-lowering drugs during this period (88). The obesity epidemic may have halted the downward trend in mean cholesterol.
Research weaknesses
The high-level weaknesses in the current epidemiology of obesity are rst the fragmentation of the understanding of energy balance in populations. There is also a shortage of contemporary evidence about the emergence of obesityrelated diseases. In addition, a sparse understanding of the early life determinants of metabolic health and the lack of studies of public health interventions to inuence energy balance are areas of signicant weakness which have been identied elsewhere in this review. More specic problems are:
age, gender and ethnicity, but so can the sensitivities of the instruments used to assess the determinants these biases need to be better understood. The determinants of energy balance interact, but the interactions are seldom reported. This is unsurprising because the interactions are highly complex, requiring larger than usual studies to characterize them. For example, unhealthy diets among adolescents correlate both with television viewing and adverse perception of healthy eating (94). Urbanization in developing countries is associated with higher proportions of obesity (32) and could relate to access to cheap energy-dense foods as well as reduced physical activity. The built environment has been associated with excess weight or body size, probably via inuences on both diet and physical activity in the community (95). Fast-food outlets are sometimes clustered in deprived areas (96). The interrelationships of the major determinants of obesity over long periods of time need to be understood as a whole, dynamic system. Larger and more wide-ranging studies are required to reveal the big picture of the obesity epidemic. The need for a big picture applies not only to current populations but also across the life course. For example, the combined effect of increasing breastfeeding, decreasing energy and fat intake, and increasing physical activity (68) might have cumulative and multiplicative effects only revealed by a set of longitudinal studies. The search for individual modiable risk factors might be less fruitful than the search for combinations of factors.
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
analysis involving 388 622 individuals and 60 374 deaths, obesity was associated with higher mortality but the pooled risk for the overweight group was not signicant (100). In patients with coronary heart disease, lower BMI was even associated with higher mortality (101). Considering that the amount of fat may differ between ethnic groups even with the same BMI (102), it is plausible that the underlying differences in fatness might affect how BMI predicts risks in different populations. One study suggested that fat distribution measures predict myocardial infarction more strongly than BMI does (103). In the highest two-fths of waist : hip ratio, the population attributable risk was 24.3% while in the top two-fths of BMI, it was 7.7%. The impact of obesity could have been underestimated.
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
obesity policy analysis needs to be a continuous process linking public health surveillance with cumulative synthesis of the emerging science. Monitoring the performance of obesity policies on population weight/BMI alone is attractively simple but likely to be misleading: the problem is how to improve health when weights are increasing, not just how to change weights.
Future research
The high-level tasks for future epidemiology in obesity are rst to piece together extant ndings and datasets into a more complete meta-epidemiology of energy balance. Prospectively, there is a need to characterize the emergence of obesity-related diseases through continuous, longitudinal studies via routine healthcare data. And, at the same time, to establish cohort studies capable of identifying the early life determinants of metabolic health. In addition, the introduction of public health interventions and new technologies to encourage a healthy energy balance need to be subject to (quasi-)experimental study. Specic areas of research that need nurturing are described in the following sections.
Vulnerable groups
There is a need to understand the determinants and consequences of obesity specic to potentially vulnerable subpopulations. These include ethnic and migrant groups, socially or economically deprived groups, and the elderly. The percentage of fat increases while muscle mass decreases with age (125). The balance between the adverse effects of excess fat on metabolic health and the protective effect of weight on bone health needs to be explored in the elderly. The impact of the obesity epidemic among migrant families needs to be investigated (121).
This paper was commissioned by the Foresight programme of the Ofce of Science and Innovation, Department of Trade and Industry 2007 Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO; published with permission Journal compilation 2007 The International Association for the Study of Obesity. obesity reviews 8 (Suppl. 1), 111
obesity reviews
the obesity cost (126). Translating such estimates into health policy would require a much greater body of public health evidence than exists for example, the presumption that adopting healthy foods would translate into reduced obesity levels is not underpinned by direct evidence. In order to build the evidence base, there is a need to put current public health initiatives to tackle obesity into (quasi-)experimental frameworks routinely. The UK Public Health Service, research-funding organizations and industry could collaborate over this combining the public health surveillance of obesity (and more specic measures of adiposity) with the registration and study of all relevant population-based interventions.
Conclusion
It is unusual for governments to acknowledge a global public health problem ahead of comprehensive epidemiology about the problem, as is the case with obesity. There are various reasons for this. First, the condition is highly complex and emerging slowly. It is also clear that the average person thinks that they understand the causes of the problem and know ways to control it. And nally, there is an established industry of ineffective and/or inefcient interventions. Future studies of obesity need to be more precise and complete in determining the effects of adiposity, which are likely to vary with ethnicity, gender, activity level and fat distribution. Obesity epidemiology needs a large, internationally co-ordinated research effort without delay.
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