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ECONOMIC DIGEST
Vol.2 No.7 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development
■ Connecticut's part-time
A nor, legislative leaders, Each industry cluster was
and commissioners on June 11, asked to make a set of priority
workers are profiled. (second 1997, culminated the first 100 global-competitiveness recom-
article, p.4) days of the initiative, Connecti- mendations. Among them were
cut Business Agenda: Building the following:
■ May's nonfarm employment the State of the Future. The
increased by 4,600 from purpose is to initiate unprec- develop a “manufacturing
April, and by 26,200 from a edented actions for the state’s resource center,” and a 21st
year ago. (p.6) business climate and economic century vocational-technical
growth. This initiative has been school system
■ The unemployment rate launched by the Industry Clus-
was unchanged at 5.2 ter/International Division of the become “the managed care
Department of Economic and capital of the world,” and
percent May. (p.6)
Community Development (DECD) achieve leading medical and
■ Housing permits fell 1.2 led by Commissioner Peter Ellef biotechnology status
and Administrator Jim
percent over the year, but
Abromaitis, on loan from Fleet streamline regulatory require-
increased 34 percent through
Bank. ments to make it easier for
May from last year. (p.7) Following three months of small businesses to succeed
intensive industry-led advisory
■ The State gained 5,611 more
board meetings, about 90 Gover- re-focus educational curricula,
new businesses so far this
nor-appointed business execu- incentives, and structures to
year. (p.7) tives, representing each of five expand job/career opportuni-
major industry clusters reported ties
preliminary results.
● IN THIS ISSUE ●
Telecommunications/
Housing Update ............................ 3 Information
Leading & Coincident Indicators 5 Health Services
Economic Indicators ................. 6-8 Manufacturing
Comparative Regional Data ......... 9
Economic Indicator Trends ... 10-13 Financial Services
HOUSING UPDATE
The annual housing permit report for 1996 is available from the Department of Economic and Community Devel-
opment. To obtain a copy, please call (860)566-1887 or fax requests to (860)566-8600.
●
4
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LEADING INDEX COINCIDENT INDEX
105 120
Peak
02/89
100
100
95
80 Peak
03/80 Trough
90 06/92
60 Peak Trough
Peak 01/83
85 05/74
12/69
40
80 Trough
Trough
09/75
10/71
75 20
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in
both charts is an index with 1987=100.
Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) 461-6644,
Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) 486-3853, Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) 486-3022, Storrs
Campus] provided research support.
Note: Beginning with the November 1996 release, all estimates for 1990:Q1 through 1996:Q3
are no longer consistent with 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4. The estimates for 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4 will
be revised by BEA in the second half of 1997.
1,600
May 1,556.8 1,581.0 1,607.2
1,550 Jun 1,556.8 1,584.2
1,500 Jul 1,557.7 1,588.0
Aug 1,561.9 1,591.9
1,450 Sep 1,563.1 1,590.9
1,400 Oct 1,560.8 1,592.5
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 1,565.4 1,595.3
Dec 1,567.2 1,596.5
1,750
May 1,709.3 1,717.9 1,741.6
1,700 Jun 1,709.0 1,719.7
1,650 Jul 1,709.1 1,721.6
Aug 1,710.3 1,721.9
1,600 Sep 1,711.1 1,721.5
1,550 Oct 1,709.3 1,724.1
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 1,712.4 1,723.3
Dec 1,714.8 1,722.0
AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS* (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 4,534 4,651 3,890
9,000
Feb 4,756 4,517 3,795
8,000 Mar 4,790 4,082 3,880
7,000 Apr 4,797 4,274 4,335
6,000 May 4,940 4,334 3,724
Jun 5,579 4,365
5,000
Jul 5,029 4,349
4,000 Aug 4,800 4,281
3,000 Sep 4,803 4,199
2,000 Oct 4,872 4,166
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 4,986 3,907
Dec 4,200 4,501
* The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23.
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10
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan $9.28 $9.22 $9.09
9.60
Feb 9.20 9.10 9.06
9.40 Mar 9.17 9.12 9.09
1982-84 Dollars
AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 42.6 39.1 42.7
45.0
Feb 42.8 42.6 42.1
44.0 Mar 43.3 43.0 42.4
43.0 Apr 41.0 42.0 42.5
42.0 May 42.9 42.7 42.5
Jun 42.8 43.0
41.0
Jul 41.8 42.2
40.0 Aug 42.5 42.6
39.0 Sep 43.2 43.1
38.0 Oct 43.5 42.9
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 43.2 43.2
Dec 43.5 43.4
HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 32 35 35
120
Feb 35 33 36
100 Mar 36 34 34
Apr 33 34 36
1987=100
80
May 34 35 36
60 Jun 33 36
40 Jul 31 34
Aug 32 32
20 Sep 39 35
0 Oct 30 35
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 32 36
Dec 40 35
DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 826 810 833
1,100 Feb 844 794 840
1,000 Mar 833 812 856
Apr 813 813 849
900
May 827 811 856
800 Jun 824 838
700 Jul 819 833
Aug 821 833
600 Sep 822 838
500 Oct 823 825
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 827 825
Dec 828 828
CONSTRUCTION & MINING EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 52.9 49.9 52.7
90
Feb 52.0 51.0 53.4
80 Mar 52.0 51.8 53.9
Apr 51.9 52.3 54.5
Thousands
TRANSPORT. & PUBLIC UTIL. EMPLOYMENT (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 70.8 72.3 73.4
80
Feb 71.0 72.9 73.7
75 Mar 71.0 73.2 74.0
Apr 72.1 73.4 74.7
Thousands
70
May 71.6 73.4 75.4
65 Jun 71.4 73.8
60 Jul 71.5 73.1
Aug 71.2 73.0
55 Sep 71.5 73.0
50 Oct 71.3 73.2
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 70.9 73.5
Dec 71.2 73.0
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12
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
SALES TAX Quarter FY 95 FY 96 FY 97
First 5.9 3.2 6.5
Over-the-year % changes
4.0
0.0
-4.0
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Note: These economic growth rates were derived by the Office of Fiscal Analysis and were made by comparing tax collections
in each quarter with the same quarter in the previous year and were adjusted for legislative changes
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment.
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14
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
BRIDGEPORT LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
MAY MAY CHANGE APR
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
For further information on the Bridgeport Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) 566-3472.
For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) 566-3472.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) 566-7823.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
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16
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
LOWER RIVER LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
MAY MAY CHANGE APR
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
●
18
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
TORRINGTON LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
MAY MAY CHANGE APR
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
For further information on the Torrington Labor Market Area contact Joseph Slepski at (860) 566-7823.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
BRIDGEPORT LMA Civilian Labor Force 221,100 219,000 2,100 1.0 220,000
Employed 208,200 204,800 3,400 1.7 207,400
Unemployed 12,900 14,200 -1,300 -9.2 12,600
Unemployment Rate 5.8 6.5 -0.7 --- 5.7
DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 109,200 107,000 2,200 2.1 108,300
Employed 105,600 103,000 2,600 2.5 104,900
Unemployed 3,500 4,000 -500 -12.5 3,400
Unemployment Rate 3.2 3.7 -0.5 --- 3.1
DANIELSON LMA Civilian Labor Force 34,300 33,700 600 1.8 33,900
Employed 32,200 31,600 600 1.9 31,800
Unemployed 2,100 2,200 -100 -4.5 2,000
Unemployment Rate 6.2 6.4 -0.2 --- 5.9
HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 590,700 590,100 600 0.1 589,100
Employed 559,500 555,400 4,100 0.7 559,400
Unemployed 31,200 34,700 -3,500 -10.1 29,700
Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.9 -0.6 --- 5.0
LOWER RIVER LMA Civilian Labor Force 12,700 12,200 500 4.1 12,200
Employed 12,200 11,700 500 4.3 11,800
Unemployed 500 500 0 0.0 400
Unemployment Rate 3.8 4.1 -0.3 --- 3.3
NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 275,100 270,400 4,700 1.7 275,300
Employed 260,600 255,300 5,300 2.1 260,500
Unemployed 14,500 15,200 -700 -4.6 14,800
Unemployment Rate 5.3 5.6 -0.3 --- 5.4
NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 157,200 151,500 5,700 3.8 153,700
Employed 148,500 143,700 4,800 3.3 146,200
Unemployed 8,600 7,800 800 10.3 7,500
Unemployment Rate 5.5 5.2 0.3 --- 4.9
STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 192,900 187,900 5,000 2.7 191,400
Employed 186,900 181,200 5,700 3.1 185,700
Unemployed 6,000 6,700 -700 -10.4 5,600
Unemployment Rate 3.1 3.6 -0.5 --- 2.9
TORRINGTON LMA Civilian Labor Force 38,200 38,300 -100 -0.3 37,900
Employed 36,800 36,600 200 0.5 36,300
Unemployed 1,500 1,800 -300 -16.7 1,500
Unemployment Rate 3.8 4.6 -0.8 --- 4.1
WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 119,800 116,900 2,900 2.5 118,200
Employed 112,900 109,700 3,200 2.9 111,300
Unemployed 6,900 7,100 -200 -2.8 6,900
Unemployment Rate 5.7 6.1 -0.4 --- 5.8
UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 135,963,000 133,558,000 2,405,000 1.8 135,181,000
Employed 129,565,000 126,391,000 3,174,000 2.5 128,629,000
Unemployed 6,398,000 7,166,000 -768,000 -10.7 6,551,000
Unemployment Rate 4.7 5.4 -0.7 --- 4.8
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
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20
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
MANUFACTURING HOURS AND EARNINGS
AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
MAY CHG APR MAY CHG APR MAY CHG APR
(Not seasonally adjusted) 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
MANUFACTURING $610.30 $592.68 $17.62 $607.75 42.5 42.7 -0.2 42.5 $14.36 $13.88 $0.48 $14.30
DURABLE GOODS 622.99 604.89 18.10 621.03 42.7 42.9 -0.2 42.8 14.59 14.10 0.49 14.51
Lumber & Furniture 452.97 456.25 -3.28 458.28 40.3 40.7 -0.4 40.7 11.24 11.21 0.03 11.26
Stone, Clay and Glass 598.36 599.28 -0.92 576.35 43.9 44.0 -0.1 42.1 13.63 13.62 0.01 13.69
Primary Metals 607.90 592.68 15.22 604.34 44.6 44.9 -0.3 44.7 13.63 13.20 0.43 13.52
Fabricated Metals 582.28 569.40 12.89 583.08 43.1 43.3 -0.2 43.0 13.51 13.15 0.36 13.56
Machinery 681.91 650.27 31.64 681.62 45.1 44.6 0.5 45.2 15.12 14.58 0.54 15.08
Electrical Equipment 487.18 490.89 -3.71 486.67 40.7 42.1 -1.4 41.0 11.97 11.66 0.31 11.87
Trans. Equipment 781.44 729.33 52.10 778.17 41.9 41.7 0.2 42.2 18.65 17.49 1.16 18.44
Instruments 559.84 568.58 -8.75 549.95 41.5 42.4 -0.9 41.6 13.49 13.41 0.08 13.22
Miscellaneous Mfg 579.94 538.80 41.14 573.57 42.8 41.8 1.0 42.9 13.55 12.89 0.66 13.37
NONDUR. GOODS 576.96 564.77 12.19 576.54 41.9 42.4 -0.5 41.9 13.77 13.32 0.45 13.76
Food 523.03 540.96 -17.93 522.10 44.4 46.0 -1.6 43.4 11.78 11.76 0.02 12.03
Textiles 466.07 476.19 -10.12 469.06 41.8 42.9 -1.1 41.4 11.15 11.10 0.05 11.33
Apparel 335.43 346.12 -10.69 335.66 38.6 40.2 -1.6 38.1 8.69 8.61 0.08 8.81
Paper 681.10 692.09 -11.00 697.36 44.4 46.7 -2.3 46.0 15.34 14.82 0.52 15.16
Printing & Publishing 559.56 522.02 37.55 553.52 38.3 37.8 0.5 38.2 14.61 13.81 0.80 14.49
Chemicals 784.80 757.91 26.89 778.72 45.0 44.9 0.1 44.6 17.44 16.88 0.56 17.46
Rubber & Misc. Plast. 498.67 474.62 24.05 505.75 41.8 41.2 0.6 42.5 11.93 11.52 0.41 11.90
CONSTRUCTION 792.12 797.79 -5.67 772.70 42.0 42.8 -0.8 41.7 18.86 18.64 0.22 18.53
LMAs AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
MAY CHG APR MAY CHG APR MAY CHG APR
MANUFACTURING 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
Bridgeport $643.69 $608.58 $35.11 $633.88 42.6 42.0 0.6 42.4 $15.11 $14.49 $0.62 $14.95
Danbury 645.54 655.54 -10.00 646.85 43.5 46.1 -2.6 43.5 14.84 14.22 0.62 14.87
Danielson 469.86 468.77 1.09 483.39 41.0 40.1 0.9 41.6 11.46 11.69 -0.23 11.62
Hartford 653.60 611.31 42.29 656.84 43.0 42.6 0.4 43.1 15.20 14.35 0.85 15.24
Lower River 509.16 502.15 7.01 515.39 41.7 41.5 0.2 41.1 12.21 12.10 0.11 12.54
New Haven 603.48 545.08 58.40 600.66 42.8 41.2 1.6 42.3 14.10 13.23 0.87 14.20
New London 621.18 619.65 1.53 632.10 42.0 42.5 -0.5 43.0 14.79 14.58 0.21 14.70
Stamford 564.10 569.03 -4.93 557.88 40.7 40.5 0.2 40.9 13.86 14.05 -0.19 13.64
Torrington 554.69 528.78 25.91 558.08 42.8 41.9 0.9 43.6 12.96 12.62 0.34 12.80
Waterbury 597.11 565.07 32.04 602.55 44.1 43.3 0.8 44.6 13.54 13.05 0.49 13.51
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
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22
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST July 1997
TECHNICAL NOTES
BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS
DOL newly registered employers are those businesses newly registered with the Labor Department’s unemployment insurance program
(including reopened accounts) during the month. DOL discontinued employers are those accounts that are terminated due to inactivity (no
employees) or business closure. Registrations and terminations of business entities as recorded with the Secretary of the State are an
indication of new business formation and activity. These registrations include limited liability companies, limited liability partnerships, and
foreign-owned (out-of-state) and domestic-owned (in-state) corporations.
INITIAL CLAIMS
Average weekly initial claims are calculated by dividing the total number of new claims for unemployment insurance received in the month by
the number of weeks in the month. A minor change in methodology takes effect with data published in the March 1997 issue of the DIGEST.
Data have been revised back to January 1980.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has identified the five towns of Canaan, Kent, North Canaan, Salisbury and Sharon as a separate area for
reporting labor force data. For the convenience of our data users, data for these towns are included in the Torrington Labor Market Area. For
the same purpose, data for the town of Thompson, which is officially part of the Worcester Metropolitan Statistical Area, are included in the
Danielson Labor Market Area. Also, data for Hopkinton and Westerly, Rhode Island are included in the New London Labor Market Area.
UI COVERED WAGES
UI covered wages is the total amount paid to those employees who are covered under the Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) law for
services performed during the quarter. The fluctuations in the 1992-93 period reflect the effect of the changes in the tax law and the massive
restructuring in the state’s economy.
Leading Employment Index .......... +1.0 Business Activity Tourism and Travel
Coincident Employment Index ...... +6.4 New Housing Permits ..................... -1.2 Tourism Inquiries ........................... -39.3
Electricity Sales .............................. -1.2 Tourism Info Centers ..................... -18.8
Total Nonfarm Employment .......... +1.7 Retail Sales ................................. +12.8 Attraction Visitors ......................... +12.9
Construction Contracts Index ........ -23.7 Hotel-Motel Occupancy ................. +0.7
Unemployment .............................. -0.4* New Auto Registrations ................ +12.9 Air Passenger Count ..................... +1.0
Labor Force ................................... +1.4 Air Cargo Tons ............................... +4.8
Employed ...................................... +1.9 Employment Cost Index
Unemployed ................................... -6.5 Total ............................................... +3.0
Business Starts Wages & Salaries .......................... +3.4
Average Weekly Initial Claims ...... -14.1 Secretary of the State .................. +43.3 Benefit Costs ................................. +2.0
Help Wanted Index -- Hartford ....... +2.9 Dept. of Labor ................................. -7.3
Average Ins. Unempl. Rate ......... -0.56* Consumer Price Index
Business Terminations U.S. City Average ........................... +2.2
Average Weekly Hours, Mfg ........... -0.5 Secretary of the State ................ +132.3 Northeast Region ........................... +2.3
Average Hourly Earnings, Mfg ...... +3.5 Dept. of Labor ............................... -14.2 NY-NJ-Long Island ......................... +2.1
Average Weekly Earnings, Mfg ..... +3.0 Boston-Lawrence-Salem ............... +3.0
Manufacturing Output ................... +0.3 Consumer Confidence
Production Worker Hours ................ -1.7 State Tax Collections ...................... -5.4 U.S. ............................................. +25.6
Productivity .................................... +2.0 Corporate Tax ................................ -30.1 New England .............................. +87.9
Personal Income Tax ..................... -18.0
UI Covered Wages ......................... +3.4 Real Estate Conveyance Tax .......... +1.6 Interest Rates
Personal Income ............................ +3.8 Sales & Use Tax ............................. +6.2 Prime .......................................... +0.25*
Real Personal Income ................... +1.4 Conventional Mortgage ............... -0.13*
*Percentage point change; **Less than 0.05 percent; NA = Not Available
THE CONNECTICUT
ECONOMIC DIGEST
A joint publication of
The Connecticut Departments of Labor and
Economic and Community Development
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