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apartment sector
The average apartment price, for units in the CBD, has climbed substantially (26%) YoY from IDR25.9 to 32.6 million/sq m. In South Jakarta, apartment prices went up by 25% YoY from IDR17.8 to 22.5 million/sq m. Similarly, in the apartment for lease sub-sector, the average asking rental rates in the CBD climbed significantly by 11.2% QoQ from US$23.69 to 26.34/sq m/month.
retail sector
The retail market continues to perform well, albeit with moderate price increase, with average asking base rental rates for all class shopping centres in Jakarta rising 3% QoQ to IDR468,084/ sq m/month. We anticipate a further increase in asking rental rates, given that the amount of retail space in the future will be quite limited (particularly in 2014 - 2015). Of the total 313,500 sq m of space to be completed in 2013, 82% has already been booked. In 2014, there will be only 9,000 sq m of retail space completed but 53% has already been pre-committed. Similarly, of a total of 70,000 sq m projected to be added to the 2015 market, 32% has been reserved.
www.colliers.com
Office Sector
Supply
JAKARTA the CBD Sees No New Supply During 1Q 2013
The construction activity in the CBD is seeming to dwindle during 2013; however, this does not mean that the Jakarta office market is starting to weaken. In particular, during 2013, new office stock in the CBD will be very limited. Landlords of the future office buildings scheduled to be completed this year are still testing the waters and are waiting for the right moment to officially launch the projects. In 1Q 2013, there are two office buildings operate, namely Blue Green Office Boutique (in West Jakarta) and Prudential Centre (in South Jakarta) contributing additional space of 51,000 sq m. To date, total office space for the whole Jakarta area was registered at 6.8 million sq m. Projected annual office space for 2013 will be jakarta OFFICE CUMULATIVE SUPPLY
10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2000 2002 2011 2013YTD 2014F 2016F 2004 2006 2008 2001 2005 2009 2003 2007 2010 2012 2013F 2015F
311,908 sq m, far lower than the total annual supply for 2012 which was 547,070 sq m. Moreover, the total annual supply in 2012 was the largest since 1990. The total additional 311,908 sq m during 2013 will be contributed by 18 office buildings comprising two big projects and six small projects in the CBD. Meanwhile outside the CBD area, only two office buildings is of notable size, while the remaining eight projects are relatively small to medium size projects. Of this total space available in 2013, only around 10% are marketed as strata-title office space. Compared to 2012, strata-title offices were the majority, accounting for 67% of the total annual supply in that year.
sq m
Existing Supply
Annual Supply
cbd
No new office buildings are ready for operation this quarter and the cumulative supply in the CBD remained at 4.62 million sq m which represents 67.9% of the total Jakarta office supply. Meanwhile, of the 311,908 sq m of Jakarta annual supply in 2013, 46.6% will be contributed by office buildings located in the CBD area which means that there will be 145,332 sq m new, additional supply to operate during this year. Most upcoming office space during 2013 will be supplied in the Jalan Satrio and Mega Kuningan sub-markets, contributing around 72% of the total annual supply. This is because two office towers in these sub-markets are sizeable office buildings including DBS Tower (64,000 sq m) and Menara Prima 2 (40,000 sq m). The remaining six office buildings are scattered around Jalan Rasuna Said and Jalan Sudirman with semi-gross areas between 4,000 and 11,000 sq m. The total 2013 office space in Rasuna Said was 27,715 sq m higher than in the Sudirman corridor. In Sudirman alone, three small offices located within an office park in the SCBD area will only deliver 13,617 sq m. These numbers are far below those in the previous year when the Sudirman area contributed 198,519 sq m or 68.5% of the total new supply in 2012.
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| Colliers International
Based on marketing scheme, because there will be only 11,000 sq m for strata-title sale, the majority of office space during 2013 will be
offered as offices for lease (92%). This situation is mostly due to project scheduling which in 2013 is dominated by offices for lease.
Grade A, 1,843,864 sq m
Grade B, 1,513,140 sq m
outside cbd
The outside the CBD area saw two new office towers operating in 1Q 2013, including Blue Green Office Boutique and Prudential Centre, which brought another 51,000 sq m of office space. Thus, this brings the cumulative supply in the outside the CBD to 2.18 million sq m where 82% are offered as offices for lease. The total annual office space during 2013 will be 166,576, mainly scattered in South (115,976 sq m) and West Jakarta (50,600 sq m). For the last three years, these two regions have been dominating as the main supplier of office space in the outside the CBD area. During 2010 to 2012, there was 486,573 sq m of office space entering the outside the CBD market with 51% in South Jakarta and 29% in West Jakarta. Meanwhile, North Jakarta has been developing into a commercial office area starting in the Kelapa Gading and Pluit areas. Based on marketing schemes, after contributing 143,290 sq m or 55.6% of the total annual supply in 2012, it is projected that there will be only 19,600 sq m of new strata-title office space in 2013.
Colliers International |
p. 3
Grade C, 1,383,278 sq m
Grade B, 676,799 sq m
tb simatupang
The substantial growth of the office supply in South Jakarta is largely underpinned by the growing commercial activities, particularly in TB Simatupang and Pondok Indah areas. Last year, 60% of the 142,786 sq m of new office supply in South Jakarta was located in TB Simatupang. In 2013, with a projection of 115,967 sq m of office supply in South Jakarta, 73% will be located in TB Simatupang. Since the development of the first strata-title office tower initiated by Sovereign Plaza, the number of strata-title developments continues to grow. To date, the comparison between strata-title and office buildings for lease is 2% : 98% while by the end of 2014, it will be 24% : 76%.
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| Colliers International
100,000
50,000
TB Simatupang
Outside CBD
2016F 2015F 2014F 2013F 0 Thamrin 200,000 Sudirman 400,000 Rasuna Said 600,000 Mega Kuningan 800,000 Gatot Subroto 1,000,000
350,000
150,000
sq m
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Satrio
Some construction work on future supply scheduled for 2016 has started. In Sudirman, two office towers, i.e. Sahid Sudirman Tower and Icon Tower have started with ground works. In Jalan Senopati, an area next to
Sudirman Central Business District (SCBD), future office towers called District 8 (Towers 2 and 3) will flank the existing Office 8 tower and are now starting construction.
Colliers International |
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Having reviewed the construction progress of office buildings scheduled for operations during 2014 - 2016 in the CBD area and should developers commit with the delivery time, supply would strongly achieve a total of 1.63 million sq m of new office space. In the meantime, in the outside the CBD area, during 2014 - 2016, there will be 840,557 sq m
of new office space. Of this figure, 58% will be located along the Jalan TB Simatupang corridor which affirms this area as the main contributor to the office supply in the outside the CBD area. Of the projected 840,557 sq m of future office space mentioned above, 61% has started construction. Again this emphasises that the area of future office space within the next three years will be substantial.
2012 2011 2010 2009 0 Central Jakarta 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
South Jakarta
North Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
sq m
building name
location
SGA (SQ M)
marketing scheme
development status*
CBD AREA
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 DBS Tower (Ciputra World Jakarta 1) Menara Prima 2 Perkantoran Setiabudi 18 PARK Tower A 18 PARK Tower B 18 PARK Tower E Tempo Pavilliun I Tempo Pavilliun II Sinarmas MSIG Tower (Chase Tower) Gran Rubina Tower 1 Lippo Kuningan Satrio Square The Noble House Office Tower Bahana Office Tower Ciputra World Jakarta 2 International Financial Center 2 Mangkuluhur Tower Menara Selaras Office Tower @St Regis Rasuna Tower Satrio Mega Kuningan Rasuna Said Sudirman Sudirman Sudirman Rasuna Said Rasuna Said Sudirman Rasuna Said Rasuna Said Satrio Mega Kuningan Mega Kuningan Satrio Sudirman Gatot Subroto Sudirman Gatot Subroto Rasuna Said 64,000 40,000 11,000 4,814 4,570 4,233 7,075 9,640 75,000 31,438 30,500 24,600 45,000 50,000 70,000 50,000 39,356 36,596 90,000 80,000 For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Strata-title For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Strata-title For Lease For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Lease For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease Under Conctruction Under Conctruction Under Conctruction Under Conctruction Under Conctruction Under Conctruction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Planning Under Construction Under Planning Under Planning Under Construction Under Construction
continued.............
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| Colliers International
building name
location
SGA (SQ M)
marketing scheme
Tower Two at The City Center District 8 Tower 2 District 8 Tower 3 Graha Surya Internusa Graha Surya Internusa 2 Gran Rubina Tower 2 Centennial Tower Sahid Sudirman Center Satrio Project Sequis Life Tower 2 World Trade Center III World Capital Tower Icon Tower
Sudirman Sudirman Sudirman Rasuna Said Rasuna Said Rasuna Said Gatot Subroto Sudirman Satrio Sudirman Sudirman Mega Kuningan Sudirman
39,204 71,545 139,000 45,000 45,000 32,000 100,000 126,600 100,000 80,000 70,000 90,000 72,500
For Lease For Strata-title For Strata-title For Lease For Strata-title For Strata-title For Strata-title For Strata-title For Lease For Lease For Lease For Strata-title For Lease
Under Planning Under Construction Under Construction Under Planning Under Planning Under Planning Under Construction Under Construction Under Planning Under Planning Under Planning Under Planning Under Construction
TB SIMATUPANG
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Alamanda Tower Gedung Aneka Tambang Tower 2 Oleos 2 Talavera Suite The CEO Beltway Office Park Tower 3 Green Kosmo Mansion (GKM) Tower Metropolitan Tower Plaza Oleos Palma Tower South Quarter Tower 1 The Manhattan Square 33,000 16,000 4,181 17,172 5,023 9,600 23,000 44,000 39,778 20,484 40,778 39,375 For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Strata-title For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease and For Strata-title For Lease For Strata-title For Lease and For Strata-title Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction
continued.............
Colliers International |
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building name
SGA (SQ M)
18,900 19,000 40,778 40,778 39,375 25,600 18,000 39,375
marketing scheme
For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease For Lease
The Manhattan Square Tower 2 Beltway Office Park Tower 4 Signum North Tower The Manhattan Square 3
*) Under Construction: where construction activity is in progress, including either foundation or superstructure. Under Planning: no contruction activities on site but all permits have been approved by the Government.
Demand
the occupance based on grade in the cbd during qoq period
100% 99% 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% Premium Grade A 4Q 2012 Grade B 1Q 2013
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Grade C
The occupancy rate was less volatile during the quarter and remained at around 97%. During the quarter, premium class buildings experienced a minor drop in occupancy, but this did not affect the overall occupancy. The premium class buildings set asking rental rates far above the average market causing several tenants to recalculate occupancy costs and forcing them to search for more affordable premises. This made the vacancy rate for premium buildings relatively higher compared to the previous quarter. During the quarter, some office buildings
located in Jalan Sudirman and Jalan Rasuna Said reported vacancy ranging from 1,000 sq m to 3,000 sq m. However, the situation did not much worry building owners amid this landlord market. Inquiries for quality office space continue to grow, either from tenant relocation or expansion. In Jalan Sudirman, several transactions were recorded. A multinational technology and services company based in United States will occupy around 4,143 sq m space at an office building owned by Mulia Group. An insurance company established in 1975 will be occupying space of around 1,974 sq m at an office tower within the Metropolitan
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| Colliers International
Albeit moderately, the overall occupancy rates in the outside the CBD moved up to 93.5% in 1Q 2013. Contributing the most office space for the whole outside the CBD area and further, recording an increase in occupancy by 3% QoQ, South Jakarta coloured the overall occupancy rates for the outside the CBD area. As of the reviewed quarter, the average occupancy rate in the outside the CBD area was 94.8%. More specifically, the increase in the overall occupancy in South Jakarta was driven by the occupancy figure in the TB Simatupang and
Pondok Indah areas. The occupancy rate in the TB Simatupang area was 97.6% in 1Q 2013. Although we noted an oil and gas company downsizing about 60% of their existing space, other office buildings reported increasing occupancy performance. Two mineral and energy based companies acquired office space of around 1,200 sq m and 2,400 sq m while a company specialising in transport maintenance and repairing will occupy around 1,986 sq m of space at an office building located in Pondok Indah.
sq m
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
sq m
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
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| Colliers International
IDR
US$
OUTSIDE CBD
In the outside the CBD area, office buildings charging in US dollars saw a higher growth of rents during the quarter. The average base rental rate was US$16.71/sq m/month, climbing by 7.8% over the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the QoQ change of base rental rates for office buildings charging in rupiah was relatively flat with an average of IDR123,819/sq m/month.
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| Colliers International
$18.00 $15.00 $12.00 $9.00 $6.00 $3.00 $0.00 2011 2012 2013YTD
tb simatupang
Like other areas, average rental rates also rose in Jalan TB Simatupang. Compared to the previous quarter, the average base rent moved upward to IDR119,633/sq m/month reflecting a moderate increase of 2% QoQ. About four office buildings introduced higher rental rates ranging between IDR30,000 and 40,000/sq m/ month. Meanwhile, the average base rent for buildings charging in US dollars saw a significant rent increase of 15% QoQ. To date, the average asking base rent was US$17.82/sq m/month. Around nine office buildings have increased the base rent in the range of US$2.00 to 3.00/sq m/month. Buildings that introduced higher rents during the quarter include Arkadia, Beltway and Menara Talavera. Older buildings which introduced higher rental rates during the quarter have been quite successful in maintaining the quality and performance of the buildings. Another driving factor that suggests developers are becoming more confident is the limited sizeable office stock along Jalan Simatupang.
Colliers International |
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Strata-Title Offices
The continued absorption of strata-title office space, both in the CBD and outside the CBD, has led to an increase in the average asking price. The pre-committed space of strata-title office buildings projected to operate in 2013 has reached 100%. Likewise, strata-title buildings projected to operate during 2014 have announced that 34% have been absorbed by the market. Office buildings, such as Gran Rubina and Ciputra World 2, have already recorded a significant pre-committed take-up rate since the buildings were introduced at the end of 2012. Meanwhile, for the existing stratatitle office buildings, the take-up rate has been reaching 99%. A significant take-up figure has benefited the developers of new strata-title office buildings. New strata-title office buildings are setting offering prices in the range of IDR30 to 50 million/sq m. For existing strata-title office buildings, the average asking price recently moved upward moderately by 2.2% QoQ to an average of IDR28.4 million/sq m. Meanwhile, for buildings charging in US dollars, the average asking price was relatively flat at US$3,375/sq m. With the majority of office buildings quoting prices in rupiah, the average asking price in the outside the CBD was IDR22.7 million/sq m, experiencing 25% growth YoY. This will likely continue along with the influx of new office buildings which will operate up to 2015. These upcoming buildings have been offering asking prices of around IDR25 million/sq m. The total additional new space up to 2015 will be 453,851 sq m, of which 38% has been sold to the market. TB Simatupang is the most active region in supplying future strata-title office for sale. This area will contribute 177,878 sq m of new office space or 49% of the future total strata-title supply during 2013 - 2016 in the outside the CBD area. Of this, 47% has been sold. As of 1Q 2013, the offering average asking price was IDR21.8 million/sq m.
Outside CBD
CBD
IDR 0
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 50,000,000
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
service charges
Basic electricity tariffs and minimum wage increases seem to be starting to affect the service charge tariffs, in particular for office buildings located in the CBD. It is reported that the average service charge for office buildings charging in rupiah rose by 7.8% compared to the previous quarter. As of 1Q 2013, the service charge tariff was IDR61,372/sq m/month. In the office buildings charging rents in US dollars, the average service charge was US$6.54/sq m/month QoQ. Some office buildings located in Thamrin and Sudirman contributed to the overall increase for the quarter. Meanwhile in the outside the CBD area, the average service charge was IDR42,557/sq m/ month for office buildings charging in rupiah while for office buildings charging rents in US dollars, the service charge was quoted at US$5.38/sq m/month.
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IDR 40,000,000
| Colliers International
IDR 60,000,000
Outlook
Land scarcity in the CBD has suggested a substantial correction to the overall office space price. As seen in the market, the price of newly built strata-title offices has gone up unreasonably. Likewise, in the secondary market, owners of strata-title office space in prime locations and in good premises offered asking prices arbitrarily, most of the time beyond the average market price. Given the limited amount of quality offices, the leasing market is also quite active in strata-title premises. This will lead to continued absorption of strata-title space with buyers aiming to lease back their space amid the current premium rental rates. This is evidenced not only in the new strata-title office buildings, but also in the secondary market where office space potentially yields a good return. Land scarcity in the CBD will be a blessing for other areas, particularly those with direct access to the CBD. In the west, Jalan S. Parman has been populated with some good-quality office buildings as well as in the east side of the downtown where Jalan MT. Haryono is becoming an office space contributor. The increasingly high office prices in the CBD have an impact on the office prices of these two growing areas after the CBD and Jalan TB Simatupang. With limited supply projections during 2013 in the CBD, a landlords market situation will remain. Consequently, both office prices and rental rates are projected to further move ahead this year.
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| Colliers International
Apartment Sector
Apartments For Strata-title Sale
Supply
The year 2013 saw 3,979 newly completed units from five apartment projects comprising four new projects and one tower extension for the Green Palace Apartment project. Green Palace Apartment is part of the Kalibata City mega-project, comprising three components including Kalibata Residences, Kalibata Regency and Green Palace Apartment. All of these new LIST OF completed project in 1Q 2013 projects brought the cumulative supply of strata-title apartments in Jakarta to 121,255 units. Compared to the total quarterly supply in the 1Q 2012, this quarters supply is 7% lower. Overall, this cumulative supply of strata-title apartments represents 94% of the total operating apartment units in the whole Jakarta area.
apartment name Green Palace Apartment (Tower S) The Royal Springhill (Tower Marygold and Magnolia) The Residences at Dharmawangsa 2 Green Lake Sunter (Tower South) The Green Pramuka (Tower Faggio and Pino)
region South Jakarta Central Jakarta South Jakarta North Jakarta Central Jakarta
Furthermore, of the total supply for this quarter, approximately 60% is located in Central Jakarta, while the remaining portions are located in North Jakarta (22%) and South Jakarta (18%). Despite being located in Central Jakarta, The Green Pramuka sits on the edge of East Jakarta, and thus is characteristic of East Jakarta, rather than the Central Jakarta. This project caters to the mid-low segment, having larger units. Based on market segmentation, the mid-low segment dominated this quarters supply at 66%, while only a few units from The Residences at Dharmawangsa 2 offering luxury projects. Mid-segment projects completed in 1Q 2013, including Green Lake Sunter and The Royal Springhill for example, represent 32% of the stock for the quarter.
Meanwhile, between January and March 2013, four new apartment projects commenced or were launched in Jakarta, with a total of 3,830 units. Two of the projects, The Capitol Park Salemba and Gallery West, are newly launched projects, while Tower Dahlia at Bassura City and Tower Orchid at The Green Pramuka are extensions to existing projects. All of these projects are located outside CBD area and will gradually enter the market in 2-3 years time. A combination of residential and commercial functions characterizes the concept proposed by the newly launched projects. As Jakarta is one of the most traffic-congested cities in the world, the back-to-the-city marketing gimmick is being promoted to boost sales for apartments which are located outside the centre of Jakarta.
apartment name The Green Pramuka (Tower Orchid) The Capitol Park Salemba (2 Tower) Gallery West Bassura City (Tower Dahlia)
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| Colliers International
Other growing areas in Central Jakarta include Kemayoran and Cempaka Putih, which expect to see more apartment developments within the next 2-3 years. For example, three projects are under way in the Kemayoran area. Selling activity for Palazzo Kemayoran, which halted in 2010, has now recommenced. Marketing has commenced for The Mansion at Dukuh Kemayoran, which was abandoned during the 1998 crisis and subsequently acquired by Agung Sedayu Group. The Royal Springhill, also located in Kemayoran, is nearing the completion of its two additional towers, and is scheduled to finish in the 2015-2016 period. Meanwhile, in the Cempaka Putih area, there are two apartment projects which are mixedused developments including Holland Village (developed by Lippo) and Sentosa Residence (developed by Bahama Group as a joint venture with Sentosa Worldwide Resorts). These apartment projects have not officially been launched, but they have already been introduced to their loyal customers.
The number of new projects (i.e. both those being launched and introduced to market) has decreased significantly since Jakartas new governor was elected in October 2012. The new Jakarta governor has brought in some changes to urban planning policy that were noted in the mid-term regional development plan (RPJMD). It is understood that the governors priority now, and over the next five years, is to endorse massive amounts of highrise residential development targeting Jakartas low-income segment by redeveloping the slum area into a residential area with environmental sustainability features. Further, in accommodating this low-income segment, the Jakarta government is demonstrating its focus on building more low-cost rented apartments for workers, equipped with facilities like fitness centers and improved public and green space. Therefore it is assumed that the issuing of new permits for commercially built apartments will be in lower priority.
Units
80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
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| Colliers International
apartment name
location
region
#unit
Development status
2013
East Park Apartment (Tower A) Green Palace Apartment (Tower V) Ambassade Residence Tower A Pancoran Riverside (Tanjung Kalibata) Kebagusan City (Tower B) GP Plaza Pasar Baru Mansion (2 Towers) Luxurious Raffles Residences Kemang Village (The Tiffany) The East at Essence Complex Dharmawangsa My Home Apartment at Ciputra World Jakarta 1 Sentra Timur Residence (stage 2) 3 Towers Green Lake Sunter (Tower North) Green Central (Tower Cerberra) Sunter Icon (2 Towers) The H Tower The Windsor (2 Towers) Titanium Square Pakubuwono Terrace (Tower I) Rusunami Delta Cakung (Tower D) Verde Apartment (Tower East) KRT Radjiman Kalibata Puri Denpasar Pengadegan Timur Kebagusan Gatot Subroto Pasar Baru Satrio Antasari Dharmawangsa Satrio Pulogebang Sunter Gajah Mada Sunter Rasuna Said Puri Indah Pasar Rebo Kebayoran Lama Cakung Rasuna Said East Jakarta South Jakarta CBD South Jakarta South Jakarta CBD Central Jakarta CBD South Jakarta South Jakarta CBD East Jakarta North Jakarta West Jakarta North Jakarta CBD West Jakarta East Jakarta South Jakarta East Jakarta CBD 550 Under Construction 630 Under Construction 234 Under Construction 1,900 Under Construction 548 Under Construction 320 Under Construction 520 Under Construction 64 Under Construction 240 Under Construction 244 Under Construction 136 Under Construction 885 Under Construction 876 Under Construction 420 Under Construction 600 Under Construction 9 Under Construction 340 Under Construction 725 Under Construction 750 Under Construction 520 Under Construction 114 Under Construction
2014
The Grove St Moritz (The New Royal Suite Tower) St Moritz (The New Ambassador Suite Tower) St Moritz (The New Presidential Suite Tower La Venue - South Tower The Grove Suite Kemang Village (The Intercontinental) Kemang Village (The Infinity) The Aspen at Admiralty Pakubuwono Terrace (Tower 2) The Pakubuwono Signature Sherwood Apartment (Richmond) Sherwood Apartment (Wellington) Sherwood Apartment (Regent) The H Residence Pluit Seaview (Tower Maldives) Sudirman Suites Senopati Penthouse Sky Terrace Lagoon Rasuna Said Puri Indah Puri Indah Puri Indah Pasar Minggu Rasuna Said Antasari Antasari Fatmawati Kebayoran Lama Pakubuwono Kelapa Gading Kelapa Gading Kelapa Gading MT Haryono Pluit Sudirman Senopati Kalideres CBD West Jakarta West Jakarta West Jakarta South Jakarta CBD South Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta North Jakarta North Jakarta North Jakarta East Jakarta North Jakarta CBD South Jakarta West Jakarta 438 Under Construction 196 Under Construction 200 Under Construction 200 Under Construction 341 Under Construction 151 Under Construction 400 Under Construction 175 Under Construction 860 Under Construction 720 Under Construction 188 Under Construction 125 Under Construction 100 Under Construction 100 Under Construction 383 Under Construction 940 Under Construction 380 Under Construction 63 Under Construction 525 Under Construction continued
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| Colliers International
apartment name Senopati Penthouse Sky Terrace Lagoon LA City Apartment (Tower A) Setiabudi Sky Garden (Tower 1) La Maison Barito (Tower 1) Botanica Apartment (3 Towers) The Hive @Tamansari Signature Park Grande The Bellevue at Pondok Indah Metro Park Residence Gading Greenhill Elpis Residence Capitol Park Apartment (Tower T) Capitol Park Apartment (Tower U) Northern Ancol Residence The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (Aurora Tower) The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (BellaVista Tower) Casa Grande Residence (Montreal Tower) Casa Grande Residence (Montana Tower) Green Bay Pluit (Bay View)
location Senopati Kalideres Lenteng Agung Setiabudi Barito Simprug DI Panjaitan MT Haryono Pondok Indah Kebon Jeruk Pegangsaan Dua Gunung Sahari Salemba Salemba Ancol Kemayoran Kemayoran Casablanca Casablanca Pluit
region South Jakarta West Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta South Jakarta East Jakarta East Jakarta South Jakarta West Jakarta North Jakarta Central Jakarta Central Jakarta Central Jakarta North Jakarta Central Jakarta Central Jakarta CBD CBD North Jakarta
#unit
63 Under Construction 525 Under Construction 980 Under Construction 426 Under Construction 80 Under Construction 626 Under Construction 422 Under Construction 1,100 Under Construction 60 Under Construction 1,200 Under Construction 700 Under Construction 791 Under Construction 727 Under Construction 976 Under Construction 800 Under Construction 522 Under Construction 612 Under Construction 313 Under Construction 284 Under Construction 3,096 Under Construction
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Demand
During the first three months of 2013, the takeup rate of all projects (including those currently operating, those in the planning stages and those under construction) was recorded at 83%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarters 82.2%. Nevertheless, the take-up figure suggests a promising sign for the apartment market, due to the fact that it has been above 80% since 2012.
T ake-Up R ates
60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
Colliers International |
p. 17
The completion of several apartment projects improved the buyers confidence. Most of the newly completed projects had very good takeup levels, with 80-90% of the total units being claimed and absorbed by the market. The strata-title apartment market should also see an increase in sales growth, having benefited from high discounts for cash payments and longer cash installment payment periods offered by developers. On the other hand, albeit average take-up comparison q-o-q
rEGION CBD South Jakarta Outside CBD
small in number, consumers who bought through mortgage financing from the bank enjoyed a low interest rate. Further to this, there are other practical reasons for the increased sales in apartments including the reduced travel-time to get to work and the prestige associated with living in an apartment; this is true particularly for those located downtown.
QoQ
QoQ
The high level of apartment enquiries in Jakarta has translated into creative sales strategies. One of them is auctioning apartments on the day of the launch which enables buyers to choose the best units in apartment tower. Further, several developers offer a pre-launch booking scheme which encourages costumers to buy more than one apartment unit. The promotion asks costumers to take a queue number (priority pass) for the best unit at their best price, by only paying IDR5-15 million as a
booking fee. Furthermore, it is fully refundable if the costumer is not satisfied with, or did not get, the preferred unit. With Chinese New Year falling during 1Q 2013, an increased number of promotions have been offered including financing incentives like longer cash installment periods (from 30 to 36 months) with zero interest, bigger discounts of up to 30%, and various other benefits such as lucky angpao, gold rewards and grand prizes including cars.
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| Colliers International
Price
Average asking prices for strata-title apartments have continued to demonstrate an upward trend. Given the relatively high sales rate for ongoing apartment projects, the overall apartment market witnessed somewhat higher asking prices, from an average of IDR19.6 to IDR21.0 million per sq m during the quarter. With its limited number of projects and available units, as well as continuing construction activity, the CBD managed to maintain a higher price increase on a QoQ basis, at 9.4%. On the other hand, the increase in asking price in the South Jakarta area (8.4% QoQ) was mainly triggered by the commencement of several good projects in premium locations, such as Senopati, Dharmawangsa, Pakubuwono, Permata Hijau and Pondok Indah. This quarter, the average asking price in South Jakarta was registered at IDR22.45 million per sq m. Meanwhile, areas beyond the CBD recorded an increase of 4.4% QoQ to IDR16.35 million per sq m. Overall, the average asking price of apartments in Jakarta increased by 7.8% QoQ, up by 16% YoY.
The scarcity of land in Jakarta, particularly in the CBD and a few areas in South Jakarta, has caused land prices to increase, which has led to rises in the costs associated with apartment developments. Nevertheless, the confidence to increase selling prices has remained stable, with the support of external factors like the
positive economic outlook. As such, new apartments located in the CBD and South Jakarta will continue to adjust the overall market price because price is potentially corrected along with sale progress for ongoing developments.
Colliers International |
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Supply
There is currently a declining supply of serviced apartments from the Kempinski Serviced Residence, due to the conversion of 40 units from serviced apartments to private residences, and therefore at the end of March 2013, the total cumulative supply (of both serviced and non-serviced apartments) experienced a minor decrease (by 0.5%), compared to the previous quarter. Overall, the cumulative supply of apartments for lease in Jakarta decreased modestly to 8,206 units (comprising 56.6% serviced apartments and 43.4% non-serviced apartments).
Serviced 56.56%
There are, however, two serviced apartment projects in the pipeline, including Fraser Residence Menteng and Ascott Kuningan Jakarta, comprising 128 and 170 units respectively. These projects will come on line sometime in 2013. Further, there are two more projects located in the CBD including Fraser
Suites Kuningan, which is part of the Ciputra World Jakarta II mixed-used development, and Fraser Place Setiabudi; both are Fraser Hospitality developments providing a total of 350 units which are expected to be completed in 2014.
apartment name Fraser Residence Menteng Ascott Kuningan Jakarta Fraser Suites Kuningan Fraser Place Setiabudi
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Occupancy
The apartment market during 1Q 2013 softened as indicated by the declining rate for all rental apartment sub-sectors (i.e. serviced and nonserviced apartments). Lease expiry and completed employment contracts are two factors that have affected the declining occupancy rates at the beginning of the year.
average occupancy for lease apartment
100% 80%
Apart from that, the increasing rental rates affected the downturn in the occupancy rate of some non-serviced apartments, particularly those that have aged. In general, the occupancy level of apartments for lease (serviced and non-serviced) decreased by almost 2% QoQ, to an average of 76.6%.
Occupancy R ate
60% 40% 20% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013YTD
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During the reviewed period, the occupancy level for non-serviced apartments declined modestly by 0.37% QoQ, while for serviced apartments it dropped by 5.5%, compared to previous quarters 79.53%. As shown in the table above, occupancy for serviced apartments significantly dropped in the CBD by 7.44%.
Apart from leasing conditions, as mentioned before, the reduced occupancy rate in serviced apartments in the CBD was due mainly to both the termination of Kempinski Serviced Apartments (which always maintained high occupancy levels), and renovation works at Ascott Serviced Apartments.
Rental Rates
Significant changes were noted in rental rates during the first three months of 2013. Modest growth was seen in all sub-sectors, but most significant was serviced apartments located in the CBD. Overall, the average asking rents of apartments for lease in the CBD was registered at US$26.34 per sq m per month, which increased by 11.21% QoQ, or 10.29% YoY. Apartments for lease beyond the CBD (including South Jakarta) registered at US$15.4 per sq m per month, which increased by 4.26% QoQ, or 3.58% YoY. Stronger leasing activity in serviced apartments, particularly those which are operated by international brands, has given impact to adjusting to higher rental growth. Nonetheless, few landlords maintained their current rates and were reluctant to increase them in order to retain current tenants. Increasing rents were mostly found in newer projects which enjoyed higher occupancy rates and provided better quality buildings.
1Q 2013
The growing demand is not the only factor influencing the rental rates for lease apartments in Jakarta however. Increases in electricity
tariffs and the regional minimum wage, as well as inflation, are also more or less contributing to the adjustment of rental rates.
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Outlook
The apartment market continues to benefit from steady economic growth, which is projected to peak at around 6% for 2013. Another encouraging factor is the growing middle-income group, which potentially creates a new market for apartments. Apart from these factors, the increasing price trend has been propelled by the scarcity of land, particularly in the CBD and several prime locations in South Jakarta. The occupancy rate for apartments for lease is projected to rise further, in line with expectations of increased expatriate arrival to harness business opportunities in Jakarta. Demand for serviced apartments is expected to trend upwards. Nevertheless, as most existing rental apartments in Jakarta are aging developments, there has been much opportunity for developers to build apartments or strata-title apartments that can be operated as serviced apartments (condotel), primarily those managed by international hotel operators, located within or near the CBD.
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Retail Sector
Supply
jakarta
In 2013, up to 313,500 sq m of additional retail space will be added to the Jakarta retail market, when six new retail centres are completed (and in operation) after the first quarter of 2013. With no supply entered the market in first quarter 2013 will bring the cumulative retail space in Jakarta to a total of 4.15 million sq m. The opening of an additional three retail centres (that were forecast to be completed at the beginning of 2013) is likely to be rescheduled due to construction delays. The moratorium on new retail permits issued by the Jakarta municipality has affected future projections of retail space. In order to accommodate additional retail space, two existing retail centres in Jakarta will undergo extension works. Puri Indah Mall, located in West Jakarta, is extending its leasable space, which will be allocated to F&B. The other extension work in progress is at Mall Kelapa
jakarta retail annual supply
600,000 500,000 sq m 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2002 2011 2014F 2016F 2004 2006 2008 2001 2005 2009 2003 2007 2010 2012 2013F 2015F
Gading 3. For both of these extension projects, construction works started in 2013, and are projected to be completed in 2014. Due to its size, the St. Moritz project has meant that West Jakarta has become the main contributor of retail space in 2013. Still in West Jakarta, 2014 will see an extension project at the existing Puri Indah Mall. Another extension in West Jakarta will occur in the existing Central Park Mall, which plans to be expanded to around 40,000 sq m in 2015. Further, the Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall in North Jakarta will offer mostly lifestyle and entertainment concepts. Meanwhile in South Jakarta, new retail space will support residential development in the Pancoran area. It will also offer the lifestyle concept with more F&B retailers, over the next couple of years.
The years 2005, 2008 and 2009 were the booming period for retail supply in Jakarta. After some declining years, total annual supply of retail space bounced back in 2012, and in 2013 total annual supply will reach 313,500 sq m. However, it is anticipated to drop significantly
again, with only two mall extensions amounting to around 9,000 sq m. More space is anticipated to come in 2015, but again the area will be negligible considering that Jakarta will face a deficit supply of retail space from 2015 onward.
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Central Jakarta East Jakarta West Jakarta North Jakarta South Jakarta CBD 0 2009 50,000 2010 100,000 2011 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2012 2013YTD 2013F 2014F 2015F
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
shopping centres name 2013 Lotte Shopping Avenue Pondok Indah Mall Street Gallery Cipinang Indah Mall Puliomas XVenture The Baywalk @Green Bay Pluit St. Moritz 2014 Mal Puri Indah 2 (extension) Mal Kelapa Gading III (extension) 2015 Central Park Mall (extension) PIK Mall Satrio
location
Region
status
CBD South Jakarta East Jakarta East Jakarta North Jakarta West Jakarta
Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction
3,000 6,000
40,000 30,000
bodetabek
In the greater Jakarta area, known as BoDeTaBek (an abbreviation of surrounding cities of Jakarta including Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi), all six of the retail projects to commence in 2013 are located in the Bekasi region. Two of these projects are to be completed within the quarter including the Bekasi Junction shopping centre (with a hyperstore from Korea as the anchor tenant) and the extension of Plaza Cibubur. These projects have brought the cumulative supply in the greater Jakarta area to 1.94 million sq m. Of this total supply, 39% is marketed as strata-title retail for sale. Bekasi Junction became the latest strata-title retail centre operating in the greater Jakarta area, after Tangerang City in 2011. After the completion of these two centres, the greater Jakarta area will see another 166,285 sq m of new retail space. Except for Bekasi, none of the other regions in the greater Jakarta area will provide new retail space during 2013. In 2014 however, all regions will have contributed new shopping centres totalling 220,300 sq m.
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Based on Area, Tangerang, with growth areas like Karawaci, Bintaro, Serpong and Alam Sutera, contributed 761,482 sq m of retail space, representing around 39% of the total retail stock in the greater Jakarta area. Bekasi is the most active region for new retail space provision this year, which amounts to a total of 607,249 sq m. Almost all new shopping centres projected to be completed during 2013 are
bodetabek retail annual supply
600,000 500,000 sq m 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2002
located within densely populated residential areas, which are expected to become a given captive market for those shopping centres. Meanwhile in Depok and Bogor, only a few future shopping centres will be coming on line over the next two years. Cumulative retail space in Depok registered at 269,345 sq m, while in Bogor it remained at 299,154 sq m.
2011
2014F
AEON of Japan established PT. Aeonmall Indonesia founded a joint venture company with Sinarmas Land to build AEON Mall in BSD City, Tangerang, which is planned to open in 2014.
This company has also confirmed their plans to build a shopping mall in Delta Mas, Bekasi, scheduled for completion in 2015 as part of their market penetration outside of Japan.
Bekasi Tangerang Depok Bogor 0 2009 100,000 2010 2011 200,000 2012 2013YTD 300,000 2013F 400,000 2014F 2015F 500,000
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2016F
2004
2006
2008
2001
2005
2009
2003
2007
2010
2012
2013F
2015F
shopping centres name 2013 Grand Galaxy Mall Bekasi Junction Grand Metropolitan Mall Mall Ciputra Citra Gran Plaza Cibubur extension Summarecon Mall Bekasi 2014 Bintaro Xchange Lippo Cikarang Citywalk (phase 2) Cinere Bellevue Suite The Breeze Sinar Mas Land Cibinong City Mall AEON Mall BSD City 2015 Deltamas Mall Deltamas Bintaro Cikarang Cinere Serpong Cibinong Serpong Bekasi Bekasi
location
Region
status
Under Construction Complete Under Construction Under Construction Complete Under Construction
Under Construction Under Planning Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Planning
Bekasi
Under Planning
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Demand
jakarta retail occupancy rates based on grade
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Middle 2011 Middle Low
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2012
2013YTD
Middle Upper
Albeit moderate, the increasing trend for occupancy rates continued this quarter. Occupancy stood at 88.9%, which was a modest move up from 88.7%, compared to the previous quarter. With no new additional supply entering the market in 1Q 2013, occupancy levels remained relatively stable. Despite being lower than the other regions in
Jakarta, the average occupancy level for South Jakarta achieved the highest QoQ growth, recording 86.5% in 1Q 2013, which is 2.38% higher than the previous quarter. Retail centres such as Pondok Indah Mall, Pejaten Village, Kalibata Mall, Shopping Mall Gandaria, Kota Kasablanka and Lippo Mall Kemang helped to stabilize the average occupancy level in South Jakarta.
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The East Jakarta region achieved an average occupancy rate of 92.67%. With limited new supply, occupancy levels were relatively stable. Plaza Kramat Jati, an old shopping centre, undertook renovation works to its exterior and rearranged its tenancy mix, which encouraged most of its tenants to commit. In the CBD area, which is populated by many in the middle- to upper-income brackets, retail centres reached occupancy rates of 91.7%, representing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. Most prominent shopping malls within the CBD like Plaza Indonesia, Plaza Senayan, Senayan City, Grand Indonesia and Kuningan City continue to maintain their performance. Meanwhile, the average occupancy rates in other regions like West, Central and North Jakarta were down. Although occupancy is still recorded at above 90%, the average occupancy rates in West and Central Jakarta during 1Q 2013 were slightly lower than in the previous quarter. The occupancy rate in West Jakarta was recorded at 92.1%, while in Central Jakarta it registered at 93.7%. North Jakarta also noticed a modest declining trend, where
occupancy was at 85.9% for this quarter. The overall upward trend in occupancy is insignificant when compared QoQ, because some retail centres also experienced a weakening occupancy rate. It has been identified that some shopping centres located in North, West and Central Jakarta experienced a slight downturn in occupancy. Evidently not all retailers will survive due to the level of competition. One notable caf has had to close down, even though it is located in one of the preferred destination malls in Cilandak. In one of the CBD sub-markets, Jalan MH Thamrin, two malls experienced an increase in vacant space; with one having to release a well-known caf, which will move to a luxury mall located in the SCBD area. The reason for the move is due to the fact that the caf anticipated the redevelopment plans for the mall within which it was originally located (i.e. office building and high-rise residential). Meanwhile, due to lower traffic levels, the second mall will change its concept by replacing some under-performing tenants and inviting new F&B retailers to attract more crowds to the mall.
2013YTD
Tangerang
Average occupancy rates for all retail centers located in the greater Jakarta area registered at 85.7%, posing a relatively steady performance compared to last quarter. Almost all regions in the greater Jakarta area experienced a modest increase in occupancy, in particular Bekasi. Mega Bekasi and Bekasi Square are two retail centers that helped fuel a higher occupancy performance for Bekasi, with an influx of
fashion and gadget-selling retailers. Meanwhile in Tangerang, three shopping centers, including Living World, Shopping Mall at Alam Sutera and Mall Balekota, had more new tenants which also helped maintain occupancy levels in Tangerang. Several pre-committed tenants have opened at Mall at Alam Sutera. In Depok, two retailers including Ace Hardware and DCost opened at Depok Mall.
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Mall 3), many new F&B tenants are already on the retailers waiting list for the mall that will be completed around May 2013. At Lotte Shopping Mall Avenue at Ciputra World Jakarta, the projects that will soon be completed in 2Q 2013 have confirmed leasing agreements with some new tenants to accompany the anchor, Lotte Department Store, including Ranch Market, Burger King, Cinema XXI, Golds Gym, Hero Supermarket, Starbucks Caf and Dominos Pizza. Meanwhile future shopping malls in West Jakarta (i.e. St Moritz at Puri Indah and The Baywalk at Green Bay Pluit) have reported10% and 20% vacancy levels respectively.
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 60,000 270,000 120,000 180,000 0 210,000 240,000 300,000 30,000 90,000 330,000 sq m
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Absorbed
150,000
Supply
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kind of business Fashion and Accesories Home Appliances Lifestyle and Entertainment Home Furnishing
shopping centres name Pondok Indah Mall Kalibata Mall Pejaten Village Depok Mall
debotabek
In the greater Jakarta area, some malls have secured anchor tenants, which are expected to lure other smaller tenants. Bekasi Junction has Lotte Mart as their main tenant, while the totally
pre-commitment level in debotabek retail
refurbished and extended Citra Grand Mall will have Hypermart, Matahari, Farmers Market and Gramedia as their anchor tenant.
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 0 200,000 220,000 sq m
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Absorbed (sq m)
100,000
Supply (sq m)
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service charge
Additional to the Governments minimum wage policy, which will increase operating costs, its plan to also increase electricity tariffs will pose a major impediment to retail operators, because it will affect an increase in overall rental costs. The electricity tariff alone is a major component of the total operational cost, contributing about 40%. Since early 2013, the Government decided to gradually increase electricity tariffs quarterly, both for households and industry. For industry using of above 200 KVA, the basic electricity tariff is estimated to climb by around 20% up to the end of 2013. Although the increases in electricity charges and the minimum wage have not yet entirely been implemented, some retail centres located in Pondok Indah, Blok M, Pejaten and Cilandak within South Jakarta have already increased their service charge by 25%, on average. In West Jakarta, three retail centres located in Puri Indah and Slipi have also raised their charge by 26%, on average, while two shopping centres located in the CBD increased theirs by 8%. In this quarter, the average service charge for shopping centres in Jakarta climbed by 5% QoQ to reach IDR85182 per sq m per month. While for the greater Jakarta area, service charges were only up slightly at IDR62,821 per sq m per month. It is anticipated that shopping centre operators will adjust their overall service charge costs in mid-2013.
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BoDeTaBek
Outlook
The growing number of middle-income consumers has been the main attraction for retailers opening stores in Indonesia, not to mention the influx of foreign retailers. Quite a few big retailers in their respective countries perceive Indonesia to be an important market. Big fashion retailers are the most active retailers penetrating this market. On the supply front, assuming that there will be continued growth in the economy, the next two years will be an unfavourable time for retailers to expand, given the scarcity in retail space during that period. Thus far, there is no official announcement on new projects, suggesting that finding new retail space will be challenging in 2014. Consequently, rents are expected to move up, reflecting the limited stock of retail space. This year alone will already be a difficult period for retailers, primarily because of the increases in electricity tariffs and new minimum wages regulations, which will translate into higher operational tariffs in shopping centres.
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Supply
The year 2013 will see quite a sizeable amount of new industrial land from the expansion of several industrial estates. Thus far, only 20 ha was recognised as this quarters supply. Kota Bukit Indah (Indotaisei), located in Karawang, concluded a sales commitment with a leading automotive company, Astra Honda Motor (AHM) and handed over part of their total land sales of 84 ha. This is the only additional new industrial stock in early 2013. Two industrial estates located adjacent to each other in Bekasi were accelerating their land clearing and infrastructure work as part of the expansion plans. Bekasi Fajar confirmed that the 50 ha extension plan, on which they are now working, would be ready in around September this year. Likewise, a neighbourhood industrial estate, MM2100 is allocating around 150 ha for their expansion plan. Still in Bekasi, while continuing to sell their land, Greenland International Industrial Centre (GIIC) at Kota Deltamas also has to make sure that what they have sold have will be delivered as promised. Thus far, GIIC is working on preparing the land, including infrastructure work, which is estimated for delivery in the July to December period. Other industrial estates have indicated that they will introduce new land opening, including Modern Cikande IE, which announced the expansion of another 100 ha as part of their fifth stage. Thus far, cut and fill works are in progress and the delivery will be in stages flowing with the construction work and market inquiries. One notable industrial estate in Karawang has also indicated that it will introduce small parcels of land sometime in 2014. With very limited land available in this industrial estate, prices will potentially be offered at a premium rate. A new industrial estate that has just concluded a sizeable transaction with a leading automotive company is Karawang Jabar Industrial Estate (KJIE) which belongs to Lippo. The total gross area of KJIE is 183.2 ha and this will be divided into three phases and will be delivered in September 2013, 2014 and 2015. Apart from operating industrial estates, which are actively expanding their zones, are several upcoming industrial estates located mainly in Karawang. While some expansion projects are still underway, the transaction activity continues. However, we only recognise new supply when land is ready for occupation with ready infrastructure. With the additional 20 ha from Kota Bukit Indah, the total serviceable industrial land in the six regions (Serang, Tangerang, Jakarta, Bekasi, Karawang and Bogor) is now 8,706.3 ha. The classic industrial supply issue remains the continuing enquiries for industrial land versus the limited stock of land on offer. Since 2011, land scarcity has been a major problem for most industrial estates, and the substantial surge in land demand is at the crux of this problem. It has been reported that, in certain industrial estates, potential buyers seeking industrial land come to the estate quite frequently but this ends with no transaction because land is limited. In a landlords market such as this, developers, like those located in Bekasi or Karawang, continue to sell raw land at the price of ready-to-use land. Buyers are taking the position of acquiring raw land at the current price anticipating a further increase when land is offered in a ready-to-use condition. They are now willing to buy raw land (at the ready-to-use price) and wait some time before the landlord delivers the land with all of the infrastructure in place.
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Serang 21%
Jakarta 10%
Karawang 36%
Tangerang 5%
Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Demand
Compared to previous periods, sales of industrial land were sluggish. In particular, the sales activity within operating industrial estates saw the lowest number of total quarterly transactions since 2010. Fortunately enough, the total quarterly sales during 1Q 2013 was much underpinned by the sales occurring in the newly opened Karawang Jabar Industrial Estate (KJIE) involving 150 ha (gross area) of land sold to a leading automotive company. If this transaction is excluded, the total industrial transactions within operating industrial estates only involved 93 ha. Land absorption is definitely weakening. However, the main reason is not because of demand reduction, because demand is still strong. Limited land stock availability is the major issue, which will lessen total sales for the last quarters. Total sales in Karawang during 1Q 2013 jumped immensely due to sales at Karawang Jabar Industrial Estate. This newly opened industrial estate sold around 150 ha of gross land area to a leading automotive company. With this large transaction, this automotive enterprise will become the anchor of this industrial estate. However, this transaction is considered a precommitted sale because the land is still undeveloped with no infrastructure. The first phase of the land will only be ready in September this year. In total, the Karawang area sold a total of 176.7 ha, which was nine times higher than that recorded last quarter. Should the KJIE transaction be excluded, the biggest transaction would be completed by Greenland International Industrial Center in Bekasi followed by Suryacipta in Karawang. In Bekasi, total sales for the first quarter of this year was less than in the fourth quarter of last year. Delta Silicon, together with Greenland International Industrial Center, was quite consistent in terms of total land being sold. Meanwhile, Jababeka still registered transactions, and is higher in scale than those of the previous quarter. Due to limited land supply, Bekasi only sold 49 ha, lesser than in the previous quarter. In Serang, total sales this quarter were reduced compared to the previous quarter, mainly because KIECs sales figures were only 14% of what they were in the previous quarter. Likewise, Modern Cikande recorded fewer sales this quarter.
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In Karawang area, Suryacipta sold two parcels of land totalling 26.7 ha to two different companies, one in the building materials business from Europe and a F&B company. Other active industrial estates registered no sales during the quarter. KIIC sales were dormant because of limited land stock to sell. Likewise, in Kota Bukit Indah (Indotaisei), they still focus on selling the remaining small parcels of land. Also they are accelerating the land clearing and infrastructure on the land they have sold to Astra. Another Kota Bukit Indah industrial estate which belongs to Besland Pertiwi reported zero sales and leasing activity during 1Q 2013. In the Bekasi region, Greenland International Industrial Center (GIIC) led in the amount of land being transacted, with 31 ha. Again, autorelated companies and chemical industries dominated all seven transactions in GIIC. In second place, Delta Silicon continued to make deals with auto-parts industry companies (50% of the total transactions), warehouse and other industries, which altogether totalled 12 ha. Jababeka sold higher amounts compared to previous quarters with a total of around 6 ha of
land, comprising one transaction of 3 ha of land to a packaging company, 2 ha of land to a F&B company and 1 ha to a trading company. Other prominent industrial estates in Bekasi reported no sales mostly because they do not have land to sell. Another active region is Serang, where the two most active industrial estates operate. Modern Cikande saw a total transaction of 5.85 ha mainly to a local company comprising seven small transactions (painting ink, medical equipment, steel, kitchen appliances and chemical company). KIEC recorded a total of five transactions with a steel company, fabrication and fibre optics totalling 6.5 ha. Millennium industrial estate was likely the only active industrial estate in Tangerang selling industrial land. Millennium sold around 5 ha of land during the quarter. In Bogor, CCIE reported zero leasing activity and is consistently focusing on leasing the land. Meanwhile, Sentul Industrial Estate will sell industrial land once all the land certificate matters are rectified.
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100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
With more than 72% of the overall sales during the first quarter 2013, automotive and related industries remained the key drivers for industrial land sales. The majority of land transactions by automotive and related industries occurred in
either Karawang (KJIE) or Bekasi (Delta Silicon and GIIC). Other dynamic industries during the quarter in review included F&B, building materials, chemicals, steel-related, warehousing and packaging.
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Automotive 72%
Meanwhile, Bekasi saw a modest percentage of increase in land prices, at 4.3% QoQ. This relatively small increase was due to the fact that land prices in this area are already higher than in other regions. Two industrial estates initiated new land prices during the reviewed quarter. Furthermore, the Bekasi region commands the highest land prices compared to other regions. One industrial estate in Bogor drove the most significant changes in the price of industrial land. In less than one year, the price of industrial land has been adjusted three times making the land price in Bogor relatively the same as in Bekasi.
$150 $120 $90 $60 $30 $0 2006 Bogor 2007 2008 Tangerang 2009 2010 2011 Bekasi 2012 Serang 2013YTD
Karawang
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Until the first quarter of 2013, it was obvious to see that land availability remains the major issue holding back the industrial. Total sales recorded during the first quarter of 2013 only represented 26% of the real transactions because the remaining are pre-committed transactions. This year, many industrial estates will be focusing on delivery due to the precommitment they made prior to the hand-over process. New industrial land stock will not be available this year and if there is, landlords will tend to prioritise their existing tenants with expansion plans rather than having new tenants.
We anticipate that the continued wave of land price increases will still take place during the remainder of 2013 subject to land availability. Some industrial estates have indicated a price adjustment for this year, waiting for their readiness in having a ready-to-build industrial lot. Should the momentum of economic progress be maintained through 2013, active industries will remain the same. Inquiries will still come from automotive, warehouse and logistics, consumer goods, food, building materials, chemicals and steel-related industries.
$0.06 $0.05 $0.04 $0.03 $0.02 $0.01 $0.00 2006 Bogor 2007 2008 Tangerang 2009 2010 2011 Bekasi 2012 Serang 2013YTD
Karawang
Land Price (sq m) Highest US$ 206.3 US$ 206.3 US$ 190.0 US$ 309.5 US$ 154.7 Average US$ 206.3 US$ 139.3 US$ 170.0 US$ 215.0 US$ 139.3
Maintenance Costs (/sq m/month) Lowest US$ 0.07 US$ 0.04 US$ 0.05 US$ 0.06 US$ 0.03 Highest US$ 0.08 US$ 0.11 US$ 0.06 US$ 0.07 US$ 0.05 Average US$ 0.07 US$ 0.06 US$ 0.06 US$ 0.06 US$ 0.04
US$ 206.3 US$ 83.3 US$ 150.00 US$ 180.0 US$ 123.8
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Outlook
Until the first quarter of 2013, it was obvious to see that land availability remains the major issue holding back the industrial. Total sales recorded during the first quarter of 2013 only represented 26% of the real transactions because the remaining are pre-committed transactions. This year, many industrial estates will be focusing on delivery due to the precommitment they made prior to the hand-over process. New industrial land stock will not be available this year and if there is, landlords will tend to prioritise their existing tenants with expansion plans rather than having new tenants. We anticipate that the continued wave of land price increases will still take place during the remainder of 2013 subject to land availability. Some industrial estates have indicated a price adjustment for this year, waiting for their readiness in having a ready-to-build industrial lot. Should the momentum of economic progress be maintained through 2013, active industries will remain the same. Inquiries will still come from automotive, warehouse and logistics, consumer goods, food, building materials, chemicals and steel-related industries.
103.6 Over
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA: World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav. 29 - 31 Jakarta 12920 Indonesia
tel 62 21 521 1400 FAX 62 21 521 1411
Michael Broomell Managing Director World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav. 29 - 31 Jakarta 12920 Indonesia tel 62 21 521 1400 ext 131 FAX 62 21 521 1411 Ferry Salanto Associate Director, Research World Trade Centre 10th & 14th floor Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav. 29 - 31 Jakarta 12920 Indonesia
tel 62 21 521 1400 ext 134 FAX 62 21 521 1411
Email: Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com
Copyright 2012 Colliers International The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has bee made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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