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District Gross Domestic

Product
Series 2001-2007
Methodology

Gross Domestic Product is defined as the total value of all final goods produced
within a specified geographical area in a given year. The domestic product estimates
provide an insight of how the economy of an area is developing. Such estimates are
usually prepared by the Central Statistical Organization at the country level and also
at the Sate level. However, estimates of GDP at much finer level such as the district in
India are not available. Such estimates wherever available at the district level, have
merely been an academic exercise. Both the Central Statistical Organization (CSO)
and the various state governments’ statistical and planning departments have only
attempted such exercise as pilots. The importance of GDP at the district level in
understanding the economy as well as planning for the future is hardly arguable,
whether for the government or the industry.

While the methodology has been developed, discussed and debated, estimated have
not been attempted. Poor quality of data has been one primary reason for this.
However, recent information technology initiatives have brought a host of district
level data to the public domain. Time series and quick updates have ensured
availability of consistent data at the district level. This prompted us to attempt
estimating the district level GDP across sectors for the first time in 2007. The first set
of estimates for 2006-07 received considerable appreciation from the industry and the
government. Organizations such as the RBI, 13th Finance Commission, and others
appreciated the effort and also provided us with critical inputs

After incorporating the various suggestions, we now provide you with a complete
series on the district level gross domestic product. This volume thus provides you
with Gross Domestic Product at current prices as well as at 1999-00 prices for all 593
districts (according to Census 2001) in India for the years 2001-02 to 2007-08. These
estimates are not only for the overall GDP but also provide sectoral details of GDP.
Other indicators such as per worker GDP and per capita GDP have also been provided
for each sector.

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


This database provides the estimates at the district, state and All India levels. The state
and All India estimates are from the GDP figures released by the Central Statistical
Organisation. For some of the UT's namely Daman and Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli
and Lakhsadeep the CSO does not provide the data. For these UT's we also do not
provide the data. Thus the aggregate of all the districts or of all the states will not sum
up to the All India GDP figure.

Further, the district data presented here is rounded off at one decimal point. Thus, the
aggregate of district’s total will not match the State Figures. The CSO from time to
time revises the GDP estimates as much better information flows in from the various
sources. This new series on GDP estimates from the year 2001-02 to 2007-08 has
been based on the current release of the GDP figures by the CSO. Also, many
suggestions provided by users have been incorporated in the methodology. Thus past
district level GDP may not tally with the current estimates. However, the past data has
a very high correlation with the current data.

The CSO follows a combination of the income and “value-added” approach in


estimating the GDP at the state level. The approach for various sectors is based on the
availability of data. In our estimation of the DDP we have restricted ourselves to the
value of production estimation. The obvious reason is that the data regarding inputs
and stocks is inconsistent. Even estimating the value of production was a challenge.

The basic function used in estimating the production index at the district level for the
various sectors is given below:

For a given district 'd' the production 'Y' for a sector 's' is

Y
ds
i = f (li, ki, ti)
Where i=year, l=Labour cost, k= Capital cost, t= Technical Efficiency, s=sector

For agriculture sector however, information on production of various crops and their
prices at the district level were available. Thus we have estimated the value of
production (vop) for each crops produced in the district. The basic function used in
estimating the vop is given below:

For a district “d” and a crop “i” the vop is


∑VOP = ∑ pi*qi
n

i i =1

VOP— value of output for each district


pi— production for crop i
qi—price for crop i
i – no. of crops; from 1 to n; n varies from district to district

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


The detailed process of estimating the GDP at the district level for the various sectors
is presented below:

Agriculture:

Gross Domestic Product of Agricultural sector is estimated from the aggregate value
of production for all the crops produced within a district in a given year. The value of
total production of crop is defined as the product of the median price and total output
(crop production). The data sources and methodology for computing both production
and prices of crops at the district level are presented below.

Estimation of Production at the District Level:

District level production data is available from 1999-00 to 2005-06. The two main
sources of data are Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and Fertiliser Association of India
(FAI). The process of collating the data had two major issues.

First the creation of new districts and changing of district boundaries. Number of
districts has been varying over the years with new districts being created, some
districts being merged together and many being renamed. For the purpose of
uniformity of data we have adhered to the Census 2001 list of 593 districts for India.
All the data has then been mapped to this list of 593 districts. Data has been combined
in cases where complete districts have been combined together. For broken up
districts or districts where portions have been combined, we have distributed the
production proportionally. The proportional distribution for the latest available
production data has been used to allocate the production in previous years.

Second, missing data. The production data obtained from the above mentioned
sources was found to be missing at various levels. Accordingly, these values have
been estimated. Broadly there were three sets of missing values. First, district data
was found to be missing for a set of districts in a state while the state aggregates were
available. Second, neither the state nor the district data were available. Third, some
district data was available, the rest including the state aggregates were missing.
Adequate care has been taken in the estimation of the missing values for each of the
above sets. Each case being treated separately. A combination of growth rates based
on available data at the state and the district have been used in estimating the missing
values for the three sets.

To validate our process we have compared the trend in agricultural production with
the average annual rainfall and other climatic condition for a district in a given year.
Data on the number of districts with scantly rainfall in a particular year helped us
identify the reasons for poor production. Besides, some state governments come out
with the socio- economic review of a state for a particular year. For instance, Socio-
Economic Review of Gujarat, 2002-03 confirms the low level production obtained for
2002-03 in many districts of Gujarat.

Estimation of Prices at the District Level:


Prices of each crop have been taken from Agmarknet and “Agricultural Prices in
India” published by Ministry of agriculture. This has provided us with detailed

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


information of daily prices for each mandi in the country for the period 1999-00 to
2005-06 and government publication on crop prices.

Estimation of Value of Production:-


Value of Production (VOP) has been calculated using the production and prices per
crop for each district for the years 1999-00 to 2005-06. These district level estimates
of VOP have then been calibrated to the State level VOP. The state level estimates is
obtained from CSO for all the crops and for the entire period 1999-00 to 2005-06

Even after cleaning the data, there are instances where we do not have any data on a
particular crop for a state, e.g. cashew nuts in case of Goa. For many minor crops the
reporting is also poor and the data is missing in most districts. We have thus ensured
that for most states, the district data considered for the estimation accounts for over
85% of the states VOP. The only exception is Goa, where the reporting of data is
poor.

Estimation of DDP:-

The district proportions based on the VOP have been used to distribute the state GDP
of Agriculture amongst the districts. This process of assigning the GDP to districts has
been used for the years 1999-00 to 2005-06. In addition, for the years 2006-07 &
2007-08 the data on production was not available. Thus the district proportion has
been estimated based on the growth rate in DDP during 1999-00 to 2005-06.

Rest of the sectors:

For the remaining sectors a district level index has been developed using the
production approach. This index is then used to distribute the State GDP across the
districts. The index has been developed using the additive function and by assign
equal weights to the various factors. The variables included in the creation of the
index represent the various factors of productivity viz labour cost, capital and
technical efficiency.

District level workers by National Industrial Classification (NIC) given in Census


have enabled us to identify the total number of workers in each sector. The median
expenditure of the households involved in those NICs is computed from NSSO,
survey on employment, unemployment and consumer expenditure. Total outstanding
credit of scheduled commercial banks for the sector is taken as a proxy to capture
capital cost. RBI provides district level data on outstanding credit of scheduled
commercial banks according to occupation. As in the other data sets, credit for some
districts in certain occupational categories was found to be missing. In such cases
credit values have been estimated using past trends. Sectors where credit is not
available, sector specific variables are chosen to reflect the capital cost.

In the estimation exercise workers, expenditure, and credit used at the district level
are from the sources discussed above. However, for each sector, a sector specific
variable has been identified that capture the output of the sector as well as the
variations at the district level. For each of the sector, the variables considered are
discussed below.

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


Forestry:

This sector comprises minor and major forest products. Time series on total forest
cover at district level has been used. Also, district level value of output has also been
calculated using firewood consumption data obtained from census. These above
specified variables have been incorporated to estimate district proportion in the GSDP
forestry.

Fishing:

Variables used in fishing sector, i.e., fish production and fishing equipments are
sourced from Livestock Census by Ministry of Animal Husbandry. Various fish
equipments are given weights on the basis of productivity.

Mining and Quarrying:

The sector specific variables used in mining & quarrying sector is the district level
data on value of minerals, i.e., major minerals, petroleum (crude) and natural gas,
collected from Indian Bureau of Mines, Nagpur. District-wise value of production for
coal is taken from Coal India Ltd. and that of natural gas and crude oil from ONGC.
For minor minerals, the district-wise value of output has been collected from the State
Mines and Geology Departments.

Manufacturing:

Total production of manufacturing sector is used to reflect the performance of


manufacturing sector within a district. District level estimates of production for 60
industry groups have been estimated in the product “Industrial Skyline of India”.
These estimates are based on the data on organized manufacturing sector from ASI
and unorganized sector from NSSO.

Construction:

Construction sector comprises commercial, residential as well as infrastructural


construction. Parameters considered for district level value added in residential
construction sector is reflected by households owing pucca houses available from
Census. However, commercial construction is also included to add weightage with
regard to official and commercial construction in the business hub. Infrastructural
development has also been incorporated in the district index value for construction
sector.

Electricity, Gas, Water supply:

This sector covers all the three sectors. These sectors are represented by the following
parameters:

Electricity: Number of households using electricity at district level is proxy variable


of revenue generated from electricity sector.

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


Gas: District level number of households using LPG is a substitute consideration for
this sector’s income.

Water Supply: A proxy variable for “water supply” sector i.e. no. of households
having tap in the premise taken from Census, is used to create district level index
value for this sector.

The composite index for this sector is also generated on the basis of the above
specified variables along with consumption expenditure by the workers involved in
this sector and credit owing to this sector.

Transport, Storage and Communication:

The economic activities covered in this sector are (i) transport by railways, (ii)
transport by other means, namely, road transport (mechanised and non-mechanised),
water transport (coastal, ocean and inland), air transport and services incidental to
transport, (iii) storage, (iv) communication services rendered by Post & Tele-
communication Departments and Overseas Communication Services.

Only available district level variable for this sector is households having telephone
connection taken from Census, is used to reflect the performance of this sector. Apart
from this, district level workers for all these sectors separately engaged in these
sectors provide district level estimation of GDP of Transport, Storage and
Communication.

Trade, Hotel, Restaurant:

The activities considered in the sector are (i) both domestic and export of wholesale
and retail trade in all commodities and import, (ii) purchase and selling agents,
brokers and auctioneers, (iii) services rendered by hotels and other lodging places,
restaurants, cafes and other eating and drinking places.

Number of hotels and workers engaged in the sector are utilized to generate an index
for this sector.

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP


Public Administration:

Census of central government employees conducted by Government of India,


Ministry of Labour (Directorate General of Employment and Training) provides
employment details on pay ranges of employees. Index for this sector has been built
based on information on income and employment in this sector.

Other Services:

Other services sector includes real estate, ownership of dwellings and business
services and other services. GDP for other services has been allocated to districts in
proportion to the index value including working force and expenditure potential of
households involving workers in this sector.

Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd, Methodology District GDP

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