MM5009

FINANCE
FINAL EXAM

BONDS VALUATION ON CHANGING INTEREST RATE

Henny Zahrany
29112551

Lecturer :
Anggoro Budi Nugroho







MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY BANDUNG
2013





Abstract
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono raised subsidized fuel prices on June 22, a move
the government forecasts will contribute to annual inflation of 7.2 percent, compared with 5.9
percent last month. Bank Indonesia lifted its benchmark rate to 6 percent on June 13, the first
increase since 2011, and Governor Agus Martowardojo said this week the central bank will
strengthen its policy mix to tackle consumer-price gains, as reported on Jakarta Globe on 5
July 2013. Surprisingly the inflation rate keeps going up along with the SBI rate. According to the
recent news from sindonews.com on 6 July 2013, the inflation rate on July will increase to
2,38%, as an impact of that the SBI rate is also increasing from 6% to 6,5% this month. In this
situation, the changing interest rate would affect the Bonds prices. Reported on Jakarta Globe
that State-controlled airline Garuda Indonesia and property firm Bumi Serpong Damai led 11.7
trillion rupiah ($1.2 billion) of issuance, almost double the total in May, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. These companies rushed their bonds issuance to avoid the interest
rate to going up. But what will actually happen to these recently issued bonds? On this paper we
would like to measure each of bonds value to finally decide which bond investment should be
made. There are three bonds that would be valued, 1.G1AA01CN1 from PT.Garuda Indonesia
Tbk, 2.APLN01CN1 from PT.Agung Podomoro Land Tbk, and 3.BSDE01CN2 from PT.Bumi
Serpong Damai Tbk. The reason for these bonds to be valued is because of their issuance date
ranging from June-July 2013.














1. Problems
Seeing the inflation rate goes up for this month and also for this year, it is important for investors
to choose bonds that has minimum exposure to changing inflation rates/minimum sensitivity to
changes in inflation rate. We would like to measure each of the corporate bonds value to
compare the value of each bond, so that investors could decide which bond is better to be
invested.
To decide which bond to be invested, the bonds will be measure based on:
1. Value of the bond at time zero or the Bonds price
2. Bonds current yield
3. Bonds Yield to Maturity (YTM)
4. Comparation between the Bonds current yield and YTM
5. Duration of Bonds or Macaulay Duration
6. Value of the bond at changing required return due to expected required return
7. Explanation of the relationship between changing required return and the value of the
bonds.
2. Methodology

A financial manager must understand the valuation process in order to judge the value of
benefits received from stocks, bonds, and other assets in view of their risk, return, and combined
impact on share value. While the value of a bond is the present value of the expected cash flows
on the bond,discounted at an interest rate that is appropriate to the riskiness of that bond.

According to Gitman, the basic bond valuation is given by this equation:

(

+
+
(

+
=

=
n
d
n
1 t
t
d
0
) k 1 (
1
M
) k 1 (
1
I V
where:
V
0
= value of a bond that pays annual interest
I = interest
n = years to maturity
M = dollar par value
k
d
= required return on the bond

Another important thing concerning bond is bond yields. Yield or rate of return on a bond is
frequently used to assess a bonds performance over a given period of time. Current yield is the
annual interest payment divided by the current price, while yield to maturity (YTM) is the
compound annual rate of return that would be earned on the bond if it were purchased and held
to maturity. If the bond is traded, and a market price is therefore available for it, the internal rate
of return can be computed for the bond, i.e., the discount rate at which the present value of the
coupons and the face value is equal to the market price. This internal rate of return is called the
yield to maturity on the bond. YTM on a bond can be found by solving the Kd or require return
from the basic bond valuation formula. But on this paper it will be calculated using Microsoft
excel using the =RATE equation to make the process easier.

There are some impact that require return and time maturity have on bond value. Gitman said,
whenever the required return differs from the bonds coupon interest rate, the bonds value will
differ from its par value. Another important thing is the relationship between the required return
and the coupon interest rate. When the require return is greater than the coupon interest rathe the
bond value, B0,will be less than its par value, M.

The duration of a bond is a weighted maturity of all the cash flows on the bond including the
coupons, where the weights are based upon both the timing and the magnitude of the cash flows.
According to Aswath Damodaran, by incorporating the magnitude and timing of all the cash
flows on the bond, duration encompassed all the variables that affect bond price sensitivity in
onemeasure. The higher the duration of a bond, the more sensitive it is to changes in interest
rates.

To calculate the duration of a bond, in this paper we will be using Macaulay duration, with this
formula:

3. Data Analysis
3.1 PT.Garuda Indonesia
Last month PT.Garuda Indonesia decided to to raise Rp 2 trillion ($204 million) from
selling five-year bonds on this month as reported by Jakarta Globe on June 11, 2013
(http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/garuda-to-issue-rp-2-trillion-in-bonds/, 7/7/2013). The
issuance of these bonds were intended to buy new planes, such as B737-800NG, B777-300ER
jets from U.S. plane maker Boeing Co. (BA), and A330-300 and A320 planes from France-based
Airbus (http://www.euroinvestor.com/news/2013/06/11/garuda-to-offer-up-to-idr2-trillion-
bonds-june-july-proceeds-for-new-jets/12367671, 7/7/2013). It is confirmed from the
announcement made by PT.Bursa Efek Indonesia, that PT. Garuda Indonesia has listed its bonds
on PT. Bursa Efek Indonesia on 8 July 2013, with further information below:

Bonds name: Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Garuda Indonesia
Tahap I Tahun 2013
Bonds code: GIAA01CN1
ISIN code: IDA000059703
Value of the bond issuance: Rp2.000.000.000.000,-
Interest rate: Fixed, 9.25% per year
Time to maturity: 5 year
Date of issue: 5 July 2013
Maturity date: 5 July 2018
Interest payment: Every three months
First payment of interest rate: 5 October 2013
Source: www.idx.co.id

On a further report from PT. Bursa Efek Indonesia on Beneficiary of Securities
Transaction report, List of Bond Transaction, on Tuesday, July 09, 2013 report, it was stated
that the GIAA01CN1 bond had a current price quote of 100.00.
Given the information above, now we would like to know:

1. Bonds value
The bonds price was quoted at 100.00, so the Bonds value is 100% x
Rp2.000.000.000.000 = Rp2.000.000.000.000. Because the bonds price was quoted at
100.00, it means that the Bonds price equal the Par value (B
0
= M), meaning that Bond
is selling at par.

The value above is when the Bond paid annually, but as you can see from the previous
information that the bond is paid quarterly. So to calculate the Bonds value with
quarterly interest, we use:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
B0 = (9,25% x Rp2.000.000.000.000)/4 x (PVIFA 2.3%, 20) + Rp2.000.000.000.000 x
(PVIF 2.3%, 20), by using Microsoft excel we could find that the bonds value is
Rp755.570.000.000.
2. Bonds current yield
To get the bonds current yield as stated before, it was the annual interest payment
divided by the current price. Annual payment is: 9.25% x Rp.2.000.000.000.000 =
Rp.185.000.000.000, so the Bonds current yield is Rp.185.000.000.000 :
Rp.2.000.000.000.000 = 9.25%.
3. Bonds Yield To Maturity
To get the Yield to maturity, we can calculate it from the Bonds valuation formula.
(

+
+
(

+
=

=
n
d
n
t
t
d r
M
r
I V
) 1 (
1
) 1 (
1
1
0

As the information from the announcement of the Bond said that it will be paid quarterly,
so the formula will change a little.
(
(
(
(

+
+
(
(
(
(

+
=

=
n
d
n
t
t
d r
M
r
I
V
4
1
0
)
4
1 (
1
)
4
1 (
1
4


By using Microsoft excel, we can easily find the YTM or the required return. The
computation is shown below:


We can get the YTM by using equation =RATE on Microsoft excel. Number of period is
20 years since it was paid quarterly (5 multiplied by 4), along with the payment that is
divided by 4, so we get the payment for Rp.46.250.000.000 (coupon interest rate x Par
value / 4). So the YTM for quarter payment is 9,25% (2% multiplied by 4). As you can
see the YTM is the same as the coupon, which is true as the Bond is selling at par.
4. Yield to Maturity & Current Yield
As the bond trades at par, its yield to maturity will be equal to both the current yield and
the coupon rate.
5. Duration of Bond or Macaulay Duration

t cashflow PV t* PV
1 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp42.332.625.000 Rp42.332.625.000
2 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp38.748.250.000 Rp77.496.500.000
3 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp35.469.125.000 Rp35.469.125.000
4 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp32.467.500.000 Rp129.870.000.000
5 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp29.715.625.000 Rp29.715.625.000
6 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp27.199.625.000 Rp163.197.750.000
7 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp24.896.375.000 Rp24.896.375.000
8 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp22.792.000.000 Rp182.336.000.000
9 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp20.858.750.000 Rp20.858.750.000
10 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp19.092.000.000 Rp190.920.000.000
11 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp17.477.875.000 Rp17.477.875.000
12 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp15.997.875.000 Rp191.974.500.000
13 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp14.642.750.000 Rp14.642.750.000
14 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp13.403.250.000 Rp187.645.500.000
15 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp12.270.125.000 Rp12.270.125.000
16 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp11.229.500.000 Rp179.672.000.000
17 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp10.276.750.000 Rp10.276.750.000
18 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp9.407.250.000 Rp169.330.500.000
19 Rp46.250.000.000 Rp8.611.750.000 Rp8.611.750.000
20 Rp2.046.250.000.000 Rp348.681.000.000 Rp6.973.620.000.000
SUM Rp755.570.000.000 Rp8.662.614.500.000
Duration of the bond 11,46500589

From this excel calculation we can see the duration of the bond quarterly is 11,46 or 2,86
years (3/12 x 11,46).
6. Value of the bond at changing required return due to expected required return
According to the recent news from sindonews.com on 6 July 2013, the inflation rate on
July will increase to 2,38%. On the previous month, on June, the inflation rate is 1,03%
according to Badan Pusat Statistik and BI rate for 13 June 2013 is 6%. Based on this
information, We can calculate the new Bond value. From Bank Indonesias site, it is
stated that the SBI rate for 11-07-2013 is 6,5%.

First, from the previous information on the bond, the rd is 9,25%, so we could find the
risk premium of this bond by using this formula:
r = RF+RP
RP = r- RF
RP = 9,25% - 6%
RP = 3,25%

On 11-07-2013 the risk free rate or the SBI rate is increasing to 6,5%, so the required
return will be:
r = RF + RP
r = 6,5% + 3,25%
r = 9,75%

So now we can calculate the new bond value, using this formula:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
B0 =( 9.75%/4) x Rp.2.000.000.000.000 x (PVIFA 9,75%/4, 20) +
Rp.2.000.000.000.000 x (PVIF 9,75%/4, 20)

Or by using the Microsoft excel, we get Rp711.693.969.818,56.
7. Explanation of the relationship between changing required return and the value of the
bonds.
As the require return is increasing from 9,25% to 9,75% the Bond Value is decreasing to
Rp711.693.969.818,56. This value is the Bonds value for a bond with quarterly interest.
The previous Bonds value with quarterly interest, as shown on point number 1, is
Rp755.570.000.000. From this we can conclude that the Bonds value is decreasing as the
Bonds required return is falling and also when it is paid quarterly.

3.2 PT.Agung Podomoro Land

This data below the Bonds information according to KSEI, Indonesian central securities
depository:

Security name
:
OBL BKLJT I AGUNG PODOMORO LAND TAHAP I TAHUN
2013
Issuer : Agung Podomoro Land Tbk, PT
ISIN Code : IDA000058903
Short Code : APLN01CN1
Type : Straight Bonds
Listing Date : 28 Juni 2013
Stock Exchange : IDX
Status : Active
Nominal : 1,200,000,000,000.00
Current Amount : 0.00
Mature Date : 27 Juni 2018
Interest/Disc Rate : 9.25%
Interest Type : FIXED
Interest Frequency : 3 MONTHS
Currency : IDR
Form : Electronic
Effective Date ISIN : -
Day Count Basis :

Activity Sector : PROPERTY AND REAL ESTATE
Number of
Securities
: (Total)
On a further report from PT. Bursa Efek Indonesia on Beneficiary of Securities Transaction
report, List of Bond Transaction, on Tuesday, July 09, 2013 report, it was stated that the
APLN01CN1 bond had a current price quote of 102.00.

Given the information above, now we would like to know:
1. Bonds value
The bonds price is quoted at 102.00, so it means that the Bonds price is: 102% x
Rp.1.200.000.000.000 = Rp.1.224.000.000.000. The Bond is selling at premium as the
Bonds price is higher than the par value.

This bond is also being paid quarterly, so the calculation on this bonds value with
quarterly interest is:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
Bo = (Rp.1.200.000.000.000 x 8,75%)/4 x (PVIFA 2,2%, 20) + Rp.1.200.000.000.000
x )PVIF 2,2%, 20)
By using Microsoft excel we could get the Bonds value: Rp.482.074.932.028. The
Bonds value is become smaller because it was being paid quarterly.
2. Bonds current yield
To get the bonds current yield as stated before, it was the annual interest payment
divided by the current price. Annual payment is 9,25% x Rp.1.200.000.000.000 =
Rp.111.000.000.000, so the current yield is: 9,1%.
3. Bonds Yield to Maturity

Using the same equation above, we get the YTM for quarterly interest is 8,75%.
4. Yield to Maturity and current yield
Because the bond trades at a premium, its coupon rate will be greater than its current
yield, which will be more than its yield to maturity.







5. Macaulay Duration

t cashflow PV t* PV
1 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp25.516.125.000 Rp25.516.125.000
2 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp23.465.400.000 Rp46.930.800.000
3 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp21.575.625.000 Rp64.726.875.000
4 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp19.841.250.000 Rp79.365.000.000
5 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp18.242.850.000 Rp91.214.250.000
6 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp16.774.875.000 Rp100.649.250.000
7 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp15.426.225.000 Rp107.983.575.000
8 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp14.185.800.000 Rp113.486.400.000
9 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp13.042.500.000 Rp117.382.500.000
10 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp11.993.550.000 Rp119.935.500.000
11 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp11.027.850.000 Rp121.306.350.000
12 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp10.142.625.000 Rp121.711.500.000
13 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp9.326.775.000 Rp121.248.075.000
14 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp8.574.750.000 Rp120.046.500.000
15 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp7.886.550.000 Rp118.298.250.000
16 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp7.251.075.000 Rp116.017.200.000
17 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp6.668.325.000 Rp113.361.525.000
18 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp6.129.975.000 Rp110.339.550.000
19 Rp27.750.000.000,00 Rp5.638.800.000 Rp107.137.200.000
20 Rp1.227.750.000.000 Rp229.343.700.000 Rp4.586.874.000.000
Rp482.054.625.000 Rp6.503.530.425.000
Duration of the bond 13,49127275

From this excel calculation we can see the duration of the bond quarterly is 13,49 or 3,37
years.
6. Value of the bond at changing required return due to expected required return
According to the recent news from sindonews.com on 6 July 2013, the inflation rate on
July will increase to 2,38%. On the previous month, on June, the inflation rate is 1,03%
according to Badan Pusat Statistik and BI rate for 13 June 2013 is 6%. Based on this
information, We can calculate the new Bond value. From Bank Indonesias site, it is
stated that the SBI rate for 11-07-2013 is 6,5%.

First, from the previous information on the bond, the rd is 8,75%, so we could find the
risk premium of this bond by using this formula:
r = RF+RP
RP = r- RF
RP = 8,75%% - 6%
RP = 2,75%

On 11-07-2013 the risk free rate or the SBI rate is increasing to 6,5%, so the required
return will be:
r = RF + RP
r = 6,5% + 2,75%
r = 9,25%

So now we can calculate the new bond value, using this formula:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
B0 = (9,25% x Rp.1.200.000.000.000)/4 x (PVIFA 9,25%/4,20) + Rp.1.200.000.000.000
x (PVIF 9,25%/4, 20). By using Microsoft excel to calculate it, we get
Rp.453.395.845.161.
7. Explanation of the relationship between changing required return and the value of the
bonds.
The new required return is equal to the coupon interest rate, causing the bond will trade at
par. The increasing required return decrease the Bonds value to Rp.453.395.845.161.





3.3 PT. Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk


On a further report from PT. Bursa Efek Indonesia on Beneficiary of Securities Transaction
report, List of Bond Transaction, on Tuesday, July 09, 2013 report, it was stated that the
BSDE01CN2 bond had a current price quote of 99.80.
Given the information above, now we would like to know:

1. Bonds value
Since the bonds price is quoted at 99,8, so the bonds price is 99,8% x
Rp.1.750.000.000.000= Rp.1.746.500.000.000. This bond is also paid quarterly, so the
Bonds value is:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
B0 = (8,375% x Rp.1.750.000.000.000)/4 x (PVIFA 8,42%/4, 20) +
Rp.1.750.000.000.000 , by using Microsoft excel we get the Bonds value paid quarterly=
Rp.696.188.105.825. Since the bonds value is below the par value or since the YTM is
higher than the coupon interest rate, this bond trades at discount.
2. Bonds current yield
To get the bonds current yield as stated before, it was the annual interest payment
divided by the current price. Annual payment is 8,375% x Rp.1.750.000.000.000=
Rp.146.562.500.000.000, so the current yield is: 8,39%.


3. Bonds Yield to Maturity

4. Yield to maturity and current yield.
The Yield to maturity (8,42%) is greater than the current yield (8,39%) and much greater
than the coupon interest rate, so the bond is selling below par or at discount.
5. Macaulay duration
t cashflow PV t* PV
1 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp33.793.648.438 Rp33.793.648.438
2 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp31.170.179.688 Rp62.340.359.375
3 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp28.748.234.375 Rp86.244.703.125
4 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp26.516.820.313 Rp106.067.281.250
5 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp24.457.617.188 Rp122.288.085.938
6 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp22.559.632.813 Rp135.357.796.875
7 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp20.808.210.938 Rp145.657.476.563
8 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp19.192.359.375 Rp153.538.875.000
9 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp17.701.085.938 Rp159.309.773.438
10 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp16.327.062.500 Rp163.270.625.000
11 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp15.059.296.875 Rp165.652.265.625
12 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp13.886.796.875 Rp166.641.562.500
13 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp12.809.562.500 Rp166.524.312.500
14 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp11.816.601.563 Rp165.432.421.875
15 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp10.896.921.875 Rp163.453.828.125
16 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp10.050.523.438 Rp160.808.375.000
17 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp9.270.078.125 Rp157.591.328.125
18 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp8.551.921.875 Rp153.934.593.750
19 Rp36.640.625.000,00 Rp7.885.062.500 Rp149.816.187.500
20 Rp1.786.640.625.000 Rp354.648.164.063 Rp7.092.963.281.250
Rp696.149.781.250 Rp9.710.686.781.250
Duration of the bond 13,94913429
From this excel calculation we can see the duration of the bond quarterly is 13,95 or 3,48
years.
6. Value of the bond at changing required return due to expected required return
According to the recent news from sindonews.com on 6 July 2013, the inflation rate on
July will increase to 2,38%. On the previous month, on June, the inflation rate is 1,03%
according to Badan Pusat Statistik and BI rate for 13 June 2013 is 6%. Based on this
information, We can calculate the new Bond value. From Bank Indonesias site, it is
stated that the SBI rate for 11-07-2013 is 6,5%.

First, from the previous information on the bond, the rd is 8,42%, so we could find the
risk premium of this bond by using this formula:
r = RF+RP
RP = r- RF
RP = 8,42%% - 6%
RP = 2,42%

On 11-07-2013 the risk free rate or the SBI rate is increasing to 6,5%, so the required
return will be:
r = RF + RP
r = 6,5% + 2,42%
r = 8,92%
So now we can calculate the new bond value, using this formula:
B
o
= I x (PVIFA
kd%,n
) + M x (PVIF
kd%,n
)
B0 = (8,375% x Rp.1.750.000.000.000)/4 x (PVIFA 8,92%/4, 20) +
Rp.1.750.000.000.000 x (PVIF 8,92%/4,20), with using Microsoft excel, we could find
the new Bond value at increasing required return is Rp.653.264.306.277.
7. Explanation of the relationship between changing required return and the value of the
bonds.
Because of the changing required return to 8,92%, the bonds value is decreasing to
Rp.653.264.306.277. This new required return cause the bond to be selling at discount, as
the required return is higher than the coupon interest rate.

4.Conclusion & Recommendation
From the above explanation about the measurement of the Bonds value, we can conclude
the findings into this table:
Bonds code G1AA01CN1 APLN01CN1 BSDE01CN2
Company name PT.Garuda
Indonesia
PT.Agung Podomoro
Land
PT.Bumi Serpong
Damai
Bonds value at YTM Rp.755.570.000.000 Rp.482.074.932.028 Rp.696.188.105.825
Bonds value at
increasing rate
Rp.711.693.969.818 Rp.453.395.845.161 Rp.653.264.306.277
Macaulay Duration of
bond
2,86 years 3,37 years 3,48 years
Credit rating A A AA-
Bond sells at Par Premium Discount

From three of the bonds, Bond APLN01CN1 is the only bond that is selling at premium. After
the increasing required return, the Bond would be selling at par, this show a profitable
investment to be made. APLN01CN1 is also having a higher coupon rates with BSDE01CN2
bond, which will decrease its sensitivity of the interest rate change. Bond G1AA01CN1 is better
than the BDSE01CN2, but bond APLN01CN1 provides a more beneficial investment as it is
selling at premium. Now if we take a look at the credit rating of each bond that indicates the
likely payment of bond interest and principal, they are categorized as a safe bonds because the
risk of being default is low, so from here the credit rating of the bond is not a problem. Based on
the Macaulay duration of bond, BSDE01CN2 provides the highest of duration, which is 3,48
years. This indicates a more sensitive bond to the changes in interest rate. G1AA01CN1 also
gives a low duration of bonds, it means that it is less sensitive than the other two bonds to the
change in interest change. So out of the three bonds, bond APLN01CN1 and GIAA01CN1 give a
better value of the bond, but bond APLN01CN1 is more profitable because it trades at premium.
References
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Any Asset, Second Edition,Canada: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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