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August 2013
Will the Rise of Distributed Energy Spell the End for Traditional Utilities?
August 2013
Summary
Page 4 Platts to End Oso Nigerian oil OSP Code Platts to End Europe, Africa MDO Assessment Argus Ends Russian Fuel Oil Assessment Argus Ends 3 European Natural Gas Assessments Platts to Normalize CIF Azeri Light Crude Platts Clarifies CDN Holiday Nat Gas Methodology Platts Clarifies Met Coal FOB Australian Loading Ports Platts to Align European T2 Ethanol Barge Timings Platts Adds Global Oil Assessment Commentary Platts to Revise NWE Aromatics Assessed Timings Argus Changes Coking Coal Data Modules FERC Improves Oil Pipeline Reporting Argus Renames Seven U.S. Gasoline Products Agriculture, Forestry, and Metal Markets Pages 13-14
Editors Letter
With the Morris worm of 1988, arguably the first computer worm spread via internet, our exposure to threats has expanded into the new dimension, cyber. It was a sign of things to come. We have had to adopt a new lingo to go along with the new threats. Virus and worm are no longer only listed in medicine and biology dictionaries. Younger generations are unlikely to associate a Trojan horse with the Helen-Paris-Menelaus love triangle. Computer geeks will give you surprised looks when you engage in conversation with them about shopping for rods and hooks to go phishing. Honey pots are fed not exclusively to Winnie-the-Pooh. Firewalls are not designed for buildings or vehicles only. Power Markets Pages 5-6
Platts to Add Two EFA-Gregorian Gap Products EEX to Launch Belgian and Dutch Power Futures Argus Adds European Electricity Codes MISO Adds Locational Marginal Price Contour Map Tradition Energy Awarded Government Contract S&P to End Dow Jones U.S. Hourly Electricity Indexes Argus Ends European Electricity EFA Codes Platts to Change UK Power Assessment Calendar Argus Renames 16 Electricity Forward Contracts Fossil Fuel Markets Pages 7-12
CME Launches Short-Dated New Crop Options CME Adds Aussie Dollar Wheat Swap Contracts CME Launches Aluminum Midwest Premium Contracts Platts to Add Asian Engelhard Precious Metals Platts to Add Daily 58% Fe Iron Ore Assessment Platts to Add US West Coast Ferrous Scrap Assessment Platts to End Gold, Silver JM Assessments Platts to End Three Iron Ore Quarterly Price Assessments Platts to Change JM Precious Metal Assessments Argus Changes Aromatic Solvents Series Descriptions Environment Markets and Weather Services Pages 15-17
Platts to Publish Ceyhan FOB Netback Platts Adds August Oseberg, Ekofisk Crude Premiums Platts to Add Assessment for AUS-CHN Met Coal Capesize Platts Approves Adding 5 WAF Crude Assessments Platts to Add Caribbean VLCC Assessments Platts to Add Baltic-UKC Cargo Assessments Platts to Add Group 3 84 Octane Gas Assessments Platts Launches Light Houston Sweet Assessment Platts Adds Sep Oseberg, Ekofisk Crude Premiums Platts Adds Asia FOB Malaysia Gas on eWindow Platts to Add Clean UK Continent-West African 60kt Platts to Add Black Sea-Mediterranean 140,000 mt CME Adds USD-Denominated Malaysian Palm Oil Swaps CME Adds Baltic Freight Route Futures FERC to Remove Energy Communications Barriers NASDAQ, NGX Announce US Physical Energy Alliance DOE Announces Cellulosic Ethanol Production OPIS Lists Propane cif ARA ToT Cargoes Futures on ICE ICE Futures Europe add 25 futures, options contracts Argus Adds U.S. Gasoline Ex-Duty Products Argus Adds Three Biofuel Assessments Argus Ends 10 Central Asia Product Assessments Platts to End US Waterborne LS Diesel Assessments Platts to End Styrene CFR Monthly Avg Code Platts to End Castle Oil Posted Price Assessments Platts Removes Price Change Indicators in Oilgram 2
EIA Adds Hurricane Information Web Tool Platts Adds 2014 RIN Assessments MDA Adds RADARSAT-2 Station in Bali MDA to Provide WorldView Satellite Ground Station MDA to Provide Space Shuttle Communications SSL to Provide Satellite for Eutelsat SSL to Provide Satellite for Intelsat SSL Awarded U.S. Air Force Contract Option NOAA Weather Service Doubles Computing Capacity NYSE Joins UN Sustainable Exchange Initiative EPA to Launch Clean Water Act E-Reporting EPA Adds Environmental Solutions Web Tool EPA Launches National Stormwater Calculator EPA Sets 2013 Renewable Fuel Standards AccuWeather Launches 45-Day Forecast ACR Issues First California Registry Offset Credits Dual Adds Real-time Cockpit Weather, Flight Planning FX, Interest Rates, Credit, and Equity Indexes Pages 18-20 ICE Completes NYSE Liffe Derivatives Transition LCH.Clearnet Extends IR Swap Clearing to AUS Banks LCH.Clearnet To Clear US Credit Default Swaps LCH.Clearnet To Clear EU Credit Default Swaps BVC to Add Family of Indexes CME, trueEX to Deliver New Credit Spread Futures
August 2013
Summary
Henry Hub Natural Gas Forward Curve (ICE) Actual Daily Temperature (AccuWeather) Actual Monthly Temperature (AccuWeather) Electricity Day-Ahead Prices (ICE) News from Data Vendors Pages 27-30
HKEx Adds CES 120 Index Futures HKEx Adds Liquidity Provider to CES 120 Futures GFI Group Applies For CFTC Swap Execution Facility ISE, SecuredGrowth Launch ETP Indexes TAG Immobilien AG Adds Corporate Bond to FSE REALITES Launches Initial Bond Offer on NYSE NYSE Adds AEX Ext Index CFTC Announces iTraxx CDS Index Mandatory Clearing Xetra Gains Three iShares Bond Index ETFs Javelin Files Application to Trade Interest Rate Swaps Russell, NYSE Enhance RussellTick AVANA Launches Actively Managed Equity ETF DGCX Launches First Indian Equity Index Futures Other Matters Pages 21-23
ZE Launches Curve Portal New Data Reports for ZEMA EPEXSPOT: Upsurge in Intraday Cross-Border Trading EEX Spot Market Products to be Migrated on 28 August 2013 MDA Weather Services Offers Global Forecasting Services
IHS Acquires Car Info Provider R.L. Polk & Co. IHS Launches Two Cloud Versions of Goldfire US and EU Reach Derivatives Global Trade Deal MDA to Provide Tech Solutions for Boeing ISE To Launch Gemini Options Exchange NYSE Liffe Launches TKG Options NYSE Liffe to List Digital Security Options NYSE Liffe to List Belgium Postal Service Options Grand City Properties Adds Bond to Frankfurt Exchange Deutsche Borse, Liquidnet Offer German Block Trading Eurex Adds Options for French Govt Bond Futures Bahrain Bourse Boosts Engine with NASDAQ Tech HKEx Adds Five Stock Option Classes DOE Secretary Dedicates Supercomputer to NET Lab Tradition Launches Volatility Futures Platform NASDAQ OMX and NGX Create US Energy Alliance HKEx, Hubei Financial Services Office Sign MOU Monthly Market Analysis Pages 24-26
InDepth
Pages 31-35
Will the Rise of Distributed Energy Spell the End for Traditional Utilities? By Karen Hung It would be an understatement to say that utilities have been bracing for hard times in the last few years. Even as the economy has gradually recovered from the global economic recession, U.S. utilities have continued to suffer from decreasing demand, and thus decreasing revenues. This has mainly been the result of a confluence of circumstances: an increase in regulation due to climate change concerns, an influx of new demand-side technology, and nowthe rise of distributed energy, also known as distributed generation or distributed energy resource (DER) systems.
Crude Oil Brent vs WTI: Prompt-Month Contract (NYMEX) Crude Oil Brent vs WTI: Forward Curve (NYMEX) North American Natural Gas Spot Prices (ICE)
Have an idea for an article or would like to contribute to an upcoming issue? Write to us at datawatch@ze.com. To access previous issues of ZE DataWatch, go to datawatch.ze.com 3
August 2013
Editors Letter
Olga Gorstenko
Editor Olga Gorstenko Phone: 778-296-4183 Email: olga@ze.com Advertising & Vendor Relationships Bruce Colquhoun Phone: 604-790-3299 4 Email: bruce.c@ze.com ZEMA Suite Inquiries Bruce Colquhoun Phone: 604-790-3299 Email: bruce.c@ze.com
August 2013
Power Markets
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NEC NAM CFL NIT TMF TMW TMS BNO MXQMYU EFR WCL
To read more about these contracts, see the ICE Press Release here.
August 2013
Fossil Fuel Markets Platts to End Styrene CFR Monthly Avg Code
On July 9, 2013, Platts announced that it would be retiring the database code AAITW00 for Styrene CFR Taiwan Monthly Averages ($/mt), effective September 1. The price will continue to be reported under the code PHBHE03 instead.
Platts to End Oso Nigerian oil OSP Code Platts to End US Waterborne LS Diesel Assessments
On July 19, 2013, Platts announced its intent to discontinue low-sulfur diesel (500 ppm diesel) waterborne assessments for the U.S. West Coast and Gulf Coast, effective January 1, 2014. Due to a limited demand and limited spot market activity for domestic pipeline assessments on low-sulfur diesel, Platts has previously discontinued this product. Feedback can be sent by September 21 to Americas_products@platts.com and pricegroup@platts.com. On August 9, 2013, Platts announced it will end the code for Nigerias Oso Condensate Official Selling Price (OSP), effective January 2014. The decision to discontinue comes after the company that sets Nigerian oil OSPs, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, stopped providing the prices in February 2012. The Oso Condensate prices were published under code AAIQM00 on the Platts Market Price Database and on Page 1065 of Platts Global Alert.
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Maximum EUR1/cu m, a min. of every 20 seconds Maximum of 30 seconds to repeat a bid or offer following a trade None Changed in price up until the close of the assessment 60 seconds triggered by a change in bid or offer price or repeat bid/offer in the last 20 seconds
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Other Matters
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Other Matters
For a full listing of the stock options classes available in HKEx, view the HKEx News Release here.
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Other Matters
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On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), NYMEX Crude Oil prices for Brent and WTI were on the rise in August following the unrest in the Middle East and raised concern that oil shipments may be at risk. Also, global oil inventories have tightened in the past two months. In the first half of the month, U.S. refinery rates fell while the oil prices received futher support from an unusally strong demand. The spread between the two benchmarks almost reached toa $2 USD/bbl premium for Texas light sweet, although many factors hint that this will not last for long. In August, the NYMEX Prompt-Month Contract for WTI averaged around $106 USD/bbl, whereas Brent was $104 USD/bbl. In mid-August, CME Group announced recordbreaking trading volume for its NYMEX crude oil contracts. This is the first time NYMEX Brent surpassed 100,000 contracts, while open interest for NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil is at record highs of over 1.9 million contracts. In the U.S. market, the Seaway pipeline carrying 400,000 barrels a day from Cushing, Oklahoma, to refineries on the Gulf Coast was shut for than 12 hours after decreased power demand was observed at all pumping stations. In the second half of the month, there were signs of weakening demand after a Federal Reserve meeting that suggested the U.S. market doesnt have any forward momentum . On the other hand, Brent was supported by supply disruptions and geopolitical problems in the Middle East. Distributions in Libyan oil supply, the ongoing problems in Iraq, and OPEC outages since the beginning of the summer taking 33 million barrels off the market all led to rising prices for the European benchmark.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Brent-WTI futures tumbled 2% as the September contract expired. For delivery in September, Brent traded at $108 USD/bbl, whereas WTI settled around $105 USD/bbl for the same month delivery a premium of $3 USD/bbl for the European benchmark. Minutes from the Feds meeting suggested that Commodity markets (including oil) are down on expectations that some kind of tapering is coming. The Hawthorn crude oil pipeline (having the capacity of 90,000 barrels-a-day) is back in action after being shut down for a year. In addition, a Carribean lowpressure system that threatened to grow into a tropical storm (Erin) that wouldve disrupted the U.S. supply from the Gulf of Mexico dissipated. And finally, weather forecasts by Accuweather revealed that there are no major storms expected in the next few months. Brent is expected to remain on high in the near future as the disruptions in Libyan oil supplies have lasted longer than expected without any immediate solution to bring stability to the area, including the violence in Egypt that is currently threatening the normal operation of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline.
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*Graphs created with ZEMA
August 2013
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), North American natural gas spot prices remained mostly flat with minor fluctuations. As the graph shows, average gas prices dropped in North America this month compared to July in all four major hubs: Chicago Citygates, Henry Hub, New York Transco Zone 6, and TransCanada interconnect in Iroquois, Ontario. By the end of the fourth week of August, monthly average spot prices for North American natural gas fell by at least $0.30 USD/MMBtu in all the major hubs compared to the month before. For the week ending August 21, 2013, in EIA s Natural Gas Weekly Update Bentek Energy writes that due to the cooler weather during the first 21 days of August, the amount of power burn reduced to 27.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), which is 4.8% below the 2008-12 average for the same period. According to Benteks estimates in the update, consumption in all sectors declined with the power sector falling most noticeably by 8.4%. Power generation accounts for 32% of U.S. gas demand, according to EIA.
On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), futures prices for Henry Hub Natural Gas continued their downward spiral. The future prices for the next 12 months fell on average by $0.17 USD/MMbtu in August compared to July. In comparison to July 2013, the largest drop between the ICE natural gas monthly futures happened in September, where the futures declined by 7%. This is due to revisions to the forecasts showing normal or cooler-than-average weather in September.
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In August, the overall temperature dropped in the cities of Sacramento, Chicago, Raleigh, and New York, which signals that the hottest days of summer have passed. This month, Raleigh experienced the highest temperature fluctuations. The temperature reached above 33C in the middle of the month followed by the three declining days, which dropped the city down to 19C. Then, the temperature began climbing back up, eventually reaching 29C by August 22.
As unusually mild weather reduced the need to use electricity, power prices in most North American cities slid in August. The prices headed lower on PJM North, dropping from $54 USD/MWh to $47 USD/MWh, as well as on ISO New England, dropping from $64 USD/MWh to $40 USD/MWh, and on NYISO, dropping from $78 USD/MWh to $43 USD/MWh. Similarly, day-ahead power prices at Californias SP15, which covers Los Angeles and San Diego, dropped by $7 USD/MWh this month compared to July. Due to the limited cooling demand, spot power at benchmark hubs in the East Coast are close to near record lows for this time of the year.
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Forward Market Indication Interest Rates - Futures Interest Rates - Spot Japan Domestic Spot Products Shanghai Containerized Freight Index Hourly Generation Mix Dow Jones UBSCI (CIR) Treasury Bill Auction Results
Active Operating Reserve Price Report Biomass Markets - Futures Biomass Markets - Spot Consumer Price Index - All Items ISO Commitment Cost Details Market Schedules RTUC DEMAND - CAISO Demand Forecast (7DA) AS - Mileage Calculation Components Fertilizer Settlement Data Gas Storage Roaring Fork Day Ahead Electricity Market Demand Day Ahead Electricity Market Transmission Limits Fertilizer Settlement Data Historical Power Futures Prices Grade Strips German Solar Forecast Wind and Solar Power Generation Forecast Marketable Natural Gas Production in Canada Oil Statistics Weekly
Electricity Others Others Others Electricity Electricity Electricity Electricity Price Gas Electricity
Trader Daily Forecast (TrailStone) Trader Daily Forecast (TrailStone) (Dynamic Date)
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DE/AT 21,503,648 20,080,008 FR 4,363,712 4,589,388 CH 1,891,836 1,606,402 ELIX European Electricity Index * Peak excl. weekend
The Swiss Day-Ahead market reached a new monthly all-time high with 1,891,836 MWh traded. This is a 6 % increase over the last record (1,791,139 MWh in May 2013). Prices within the French and the German market, both coupled with the Benelux markets within Central Western Europe (CWE), converged 66 % of the time. Intraday markets On the EPEX SPOT Intraday markets, a total volume of 2,020,511 MWh was traded in July 2013 (July 2012: 1,492,900 MWh).
Areas Monthly volume MWh Monthly volume previous year MWh
DE/AT FR CH
* without Austrian market, which was launched in October 2012 // ** Swiss market launched in June 2013 28
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Derivatives Markets In July 2013, trading volumes on the Derivatives Markets connected to PEGAS amounted to 5.0 TWh. The German Futures markets (market areas GASPOOL and NCG) recorded a volume of 1.9TWh. In the French PEG Nord area, the traded volume amounted to 2.3 TWh while the TTF Futures market recorded a volume of 0.7 TWh in July. Details on the natural gas volumes and prices are available in the enclosed monthly report. About PEGAS Pan-European Gas Cooperation: PEGAS is a cooperation between the European Energy Exchange (EEX) and Powernext. In the framework of this cooperation, both companies combine their natural gas market activities to create a pan-European gas offering. Members benefit from one common Trayport gas trading platform, with access to all spot and derivatives market products offered by the two exchanges for the German, French and Dutch market areas. Furthermore, spread products between these market areas are tradable on the same trading platform. For more information: www.pegastrading.com About EEX: The European Energy Exchange (EEX) is the leading European energy exchange. It develops, operates and connects secure, liquid and transparent markets for energy and related products on which power, natural gas, CO2 emission allowances, coal and guarantees of origin are traded. Clearing and settlement of all trading transactions are provided by the clearing house European Commodity Clearing AG (ECC). EEX is a member of Eurex Group. For more information: www.eex.com About Powernext: Powernext SA manages complementary, transparent and anonymous energy markets. Powernext Gas Spot and Powernext Gas Futures were launched on 26 November 2008 in order to hedge volume and price risks for natural gas in France and in the Netherlands. In 2011, GRTgaz and Powernext launched the first gas market coupling initiative in Europe between PEGs Nord and Sud. Powernext owns 50% in EPEX SPOT and 20% in EEX Power Derivatives. For more information: www.powernext.com
GASPOOL* NCG* PEG Nord PEG Sud PEG TIGF TTF* Total
July 2013 in MWh 1,362,060* 1,316,065* 3,924,400 2,215,070 31,050 992,996* 9,827,183
July 2013 in MWh 835,770 1,041,030 2,380,530 n/a n/a 709,470 4,966,800
* Products not yet tradable on PEGAS. EEX Spot products for the GASPOOL, NCG and TTF market areas will be migrated onto PEGAS on 28 August 2013.
Indices
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EEX Daily Reference Price EEX Daily Reference Price Powernext Gas Spot DAPPowernext Gas Spot EOD Powernext Gas Spot DAPPowernext Gas Spot EOD EEX Daily Reference Price
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26.049 / 26.550 25.900 / 26.560 26.02 / 27.07 26.07 / 27.35 27.14 / 30.94 26.80 / 30.80 25.000 / 26.600
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InDepth
Will the Rise of Distributed Energy Spell the End for Traditional Utilities?
By Karen Hung U.S. Electric Utility Revenues Growth (Billion $)
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Figure 1. Passing phase or permanent digression: Downward trend of year-over-year change in electric utility revenue (Graph created by ZE using data from EIA.) Note that the large drop in 2009 was mainly from the economic recession.
It would be an understatement to say that utilities have been bracing for hard times in the last few years. As can be seen in the graph above, even as the economy has gradually recovered from the global economic recession, U.S. utilities have continued to suffer from decreasing demand, and thus decreasing revenues. This has mainly been the result of a confluence of circumstances: an increase in regulation due to climate change concerns, an influx of new demandside technology, and nowthe rise of distributed energy, also known as distributed generation or distributed energy i resource (DER) systems.
Not to say that distributed energy is new. The term refers generally to the generation of electricity from many smallscale power sources that are usually on-site or in close proximity to end-users, so distributed energy is essentially what people used before transmission grids were built to deliver electricity across wide swathes of North America in th the early part of the 20 century, which made centralized generation more economical. While distributed energy in the 1900s would have referred to st local diesel/coal generators and steam turbines, in the 21 century, it now refers more often to renewable or clean energy generation installations solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, wind turbines, cogeneration plants, and even electric 31
August 2013
InDepth
global temperatures upward and irrevocably destroying our v ecosystem have been big drivers of environmental and vi energy policy in the United States and around the world . This, in combination with cheaper panels and the growth of subsidy programs, has largely driven the growth of rooftop solar installations. Even big-box retailers like Walmart, Costco, Ikea, and Macys have installed surprisingly significant solar power capacity, with Walmart leading the way with vii 65,000 kW of solar power. Policies encouraging investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy development have likewise played a big part in the transition to distributed energy. Between 1990 and 2000, there were around 20 policies that promoted energy efficiency or renewable energy production. From 2000 to 2010, there were over 60 policies, ranging from grants to viii tax credits to stricter standards and codes. Investments in renewable energy development have subsequently accelerated the growth of distributed energy technology. In the last 5 years, for instance, solar panels have gone from large and rigid panels to thinner panels with better conversion efficiency. Just this year, a recyclable solar cell ix was made from cellulose nanocrystal substrates. Wind turbines have also evolved to include a variety of better models, including rooftop turbines and high altitude turbines, and there is ongoing research now in developing micro turbines. Energy efficiency has also improved significantly in the last decade, with developments in various demand-side management technologies, demand response schemes, smarter energy monitoring devices, as well as more energyefficient appliances. And better energy efficiency means less electricity demand that renewable energy needs to supply for, in addition to less demand for conventional energy.
vehicles, which have increased substantially over the last 10 years in North America and around the world. All the same, DER still only makes up a very tiny percentage of electricity generation in the U.S. at the moment. According to the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA), there were 200,000 distributed solar customers in the U.S. in 2011, which ii accounts for less than 1% of the U.S. retail electricity market. The reason why theyve been dubbed a threat is because 70% of these DER systems are already concentrated within 10 iii utilities , and according to the Solar Energy Industries Association, residential electricity from solar this year has already surpassed residential solar generation in 2008 by iv almost 10 times. A variety of factors also suggest that DER systems may eventually supplant centralized utilities as the default electricity providers.
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Figure 2. Is the growth of renewable generation, which includes a majority of DER systems, contributing to the drop in conventional electricity sales in the U.S., as seen in the U.S. electric utility sales data shown above? (Graph created by ZE using data from EIA.) Again, note that the unusually large drop In 2011, McKinsey analysts projected that by 2020, in sales in 2009 was due to the economic recession, and not due to DER deployment of selected existing technologies in energy growth. efficiency, microgeneration, and smart applications could
potentially reduce residential energy demand from the grid x by ~90 percent. Contributing Factors to DER Growth The rapid growth of DER over the last 10 years can be attributed to several factors, including growing concerns for the environment, friendlier regulatory conditions, higher energy prices, and technological advances that have made DER cheaper and more efficient. Environmental concerns in particular have been the main contributor to the growth of DER. Fears that greenhouse gas emissions from gas- and coal-fired power plants are pushing 32 The rising price of energy is also contributing to the growth of DER. While a few years ago, one could have argued that solar PV wouldnt be cost-competitive with conventional energy, the increasing prices of steam coal and natural gasthe main generation fuels in the U.S.are turning the argument in favor of electricity from wind and solar. Even as the price of wind power falls to 4 c/kWh and the price of solar PV is xi projected to catch up to wind power, retail electricity rates have gone up in line with rising prices of coal and gas.
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InDepth
Figure 3. The cost of wind power is almost on par with conventional generation and solar PV is projected to reach parity in the next few years. (Source: U.S. Department of Energy Transparent Cost Database)
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Figure 4. Rising retail electricity prices are making electricity from wind and solar more attractive. (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
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InDepth
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Figure 5. Rising coal and natural gas prices are contributing to DER growth. (Graph created by ZE using data from EIA)
These factorsfears of global warming, policies promoting alternative energy sources, and advancements in energy efficiency and distributed energy technologyare only going to increase in importance and urgency over the next few years. To add fuel to the fire, so to speak, the decommissioning of old power plants is placing added pressure on utilities to maintain a reliable, yet affordable and cleaner, electricity supply. Thus, its relatively safe to say that the only direction DER is headed is up. The Impact on Utilities The January 2013 report out of utilities trade group Edison Electric Institute (EEI), entitled Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing xii Retail Electric Business, highlights the financial risks namely lost revenue, increasing costs, lower credit rating (access to capital) of an increasingly distributed electricity market and how DER growth will affect the traditional electricity business model. Europe, where the electricity market is decentralizing even faster than the U.S., can be used as a model for how the U.S. electric power industry should proceed. According to Eurelectric, Europes electricity industry association, small generation units with capacities of below 10 MW grew significantly in prominence, from around 10 GW in the year 2000 to more than 70 GW currently installed. Similar to the U.S., solar PV is leading the transition to distributed energy in Europe, with 59 GW installed in 2012 and over three million households producing their own electricity from solar, with small wind turbines, cogeneration units, biogas-powered generators, and micro-turbines projecting gradual catch-up. 34
Eurelectric predicts that the growth of distributed energy means that distribution networks will need to evolve to handle bi-directional power flows, changing profiles for system use, and the growth of prosumers system users that can be a producer or consumer at different times of the xiii day or season. Back in the U.S., EEIs main conclusion is that the utility industry must adapt to DER the way the telecommunications industry adapted to the advent of mobile technology, or else the utilities will become irrelevant. In other words, the electric power industry needs to gradually incorporate distributed energy into their business models or resign themselves to obsolescence. News articles in the last month have very unsubtly reflected the same sentiment, with titles like Electricity Utilities Must Evolve or Die: Are They Up to the Task? and Why the U.S. Power Grids Days are Numbered. Technology: Destroyer, Transformer and Savior? While advances in distributed energy technology are a big reason why utilities are losing their long-standing upper hand, technology is also what could save utilities from devolving into the non-essential backup system for the elderly and less xiv fortunate. Concepts like transactive energy systems and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) could be utilities answer to bringing DER systems into their business models. As outlined in a recent blog of mine, transactive energy systems would utilize existing smart grid infrastructure to transmit price signals between participants in the electricity market, so that
August 2013
InDepth
With so many new developments in energy generation and transmissions, ensuring the accuracy of data for demand and supply forecasts to avoid energy mismatch and instability will also become paramount. In particular, supply side data will now be harder to forecast because there will be new fundamentals involved, such as requiring specific meteorological data to forecast wind/solar energy production (wind speed, wind direction, global heating, cloud coverage, xvi and more). The necessity of installing more devices to monitor and manage these new generation sources will certainly require new modes of processing this growing volume of data and complexity, and this will undoubtedly become the next big topic of interest in the coming years.
electricity users can benefit from using electricity when it is at its lowest price or choose the type of power generation they want (based on personal preference). This means users could decide to pay more for energy use, if the type of energy they preferred wasnt the cheapest available, like choosing a renewable over a fossil fuel. Virtual Power Plants are clusters of distributed generation installations that are run by a central control entity, and in this case, utilities could exploit their own expertise and act as central control entities. In any case, transitioning away from simply supplying conventional electricity would help utilities survive their predicted obsolescence. European utility companies like E.ON and RWE are already acquiring energy services and offering them to consumers in lieu of traditional electricity service. RWE is also partnering with others to provide microcombined heat and power plants and VPPs that pool energy produced by thousands of small-scale plants in customers' xv basements. Conclusion The growth of distributed energy is slowly but surely creating a more decentralized electricity market and eating away the revenues of conventional utilities. In order for utilities to weather the storm, they will have to identify ways of modernizing their business model to incorporate DERs, potentially through systems such as transactive energy systems and virtual power plants. In order to utilize these systems, U.S. transmission grids will require a fair amount of upgrading to a smarter grid that is st suitable for 21 century energy needs. And, as projected by Eurelectric and EEI, what this will precipitate is a variety of new data challenges, including massive volumes of data flooding the central data management systems on a daily basis at high granularities (automated meters protocol load curves with a measurement rate of 5 60 minutes, which comes up to approximately 8,760 to 105,000 values/year).
Edison Electric Institute, Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business. ii Edison Electric Institute, Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business. iii Edison Electric Institute, Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business. iv Feldman, Carole. Huffington Post, Solar Power in the U.S. becoming a More Popular, Cost-Saving Option for Homeowners. v Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report vi Georgetown University. Obama Makes Major Climate Change Speech at Georgetown. vii Finnigan, John, Big-box retailers turn to solar, how can electric utilities adapt? viii IEA/IRENA Joint Policies and Measures Database. ix Nature.com, Recyclable organic solar cells on cellulose nanocrystal substrates. x McKinsey & Company, Winning the battle for the home of the future. xi Shahan, Zachary. Clean Technica, US Wind Power Prices Down to $0.04 per kWh. xii Edison Electric Institute, Disruptive Challenges: Financial Implications and Strategic Responses to a Changing Retail Electric Business. xiii Jenkins, Jesse, Electricity Utilities Must Evolve or Die: Are They Up to the Task? xiv Martin, Chediak, and Wells, Why the US Power Grids Days are Numbered. xv Reuters, Analysis: How Energy Efficiency Firms are Eating Utilities Lunch. xvixvi Ulbricht, Fischer, Lehner, and Donker, Rethinking Energy Data Management: Trends and Challenges in Todays Transforming Markets.
About ZE PowerGroup Inc ZE is an experienced software and strategic consulting firm that combines energy industry expertise with advanced software development capability. The company possesses deep industry knowledge and comprehensive operational experience. ZE is the developer of ZEMA Suite, a sophisticated Enterprise Data Management and Analysis solution built to meet the specific challenges of energy and commodity market participants. About ZEMA ZEMA is an enterprise data management suite designed for collecting data and performing complex analysis. ZEMA replaces fragmented data collection and analysis processes with a sophisticated, unified and automated data management system. Each ZEMA component can perform as an independent product; this means greater flexibility when integrating ZEMA into your organization. ZEMA is consistently ranked #1 for preferred system, #1 for ease of system integration, and #1 for customer service. ZEMA is easy to use and backed by our support team around the clock. Disclaimer ZE DataWatch is a report, comprised of data updates and expectations for energy and commodity markets and powered by ZEMA. The information contained in the ZE DataWatch is for information purposes only. Although ZE PowerGroup believes the information in this report to be correct and attempts to keep the information current, ZE PowerGroup does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information. Information in this report is not intended to provide financial, legal, accounting, or tax advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. ZE PowerGroup is not responsible in any manner whatsoever for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, howsoever caused, arising out of the use of this report.
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