A question of philosophy

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer Equally Likely Outcomes

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer Equally Likely Outcomes Assume a die has six equally likely faces.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer Equally Likely Outcomes Assume a die has six equally likely faces. Roll it. Probability that it shows more than four spots

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer Equally Likely Outcomes Assume a die has six equally likely faces. Roll it. Probability that it shows more than four spots = 2/6

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

A question of philosophy

No universally accepted answer Equally Likely Outcomes Assume a die has six equally likely faces. Roll it. Probability that it shows more than four spots = 2/6 If all outcomes are equally likely, probability of an event = number of outcomes in the event total number of outcomes

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

1/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails. probability of heads = 1/2

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails. probability of heads = 1/2 Repeat the experiment under identical conditions, indenitely. The probability of an event is the long run proportion of times that it occurs.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails. probability of heads = 1/2 Repeat the experiment under identical conditions, indenitely. The probability of an event is the long run proportion of times that it occurs. Most probabilities in Stat 2X can be interpreted as long run frequencies.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails. probability of heads = 1/2 Repeat the experiment under identical conditions, indenitely. The probability of an event is the long run proportion of times that it occurs. Most probabilities in Stat 2X can be interpreted as long run frequencies. However, indenitely goes on forever . . .

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Long run frequencies

Frequency Theory If you keep tossing a coin, in the long run you get about half heads and half tails. probability of heads = 1/2 Repeat the experiment under identical conditions, indenitely. The probability of an event is the long run proportion of times that it occurs. Most probabilities in Stat 2X can be interpreted as long run frequencies. However, indenitely goes on forever . . . Many probabilities cant interpreted as long run frequencies, because they are based on experiments that cant be repeated under identical conditions.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

2/4

Opinions

Subjective probabilities

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

3/4

Opinions

Subjective probabilities Your subjective probability of an event is your degree of belief that the event will occur.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

3/4

Opinions

Subjective probabilities Your subjective probability of an event is your degree of belief that the event will occur. Your subjective probability of an event might be dierent from mine.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

3/4

Opinions

Subjective probabilities Your subjective probability of an event is your degree of belief that the event will occur. Your subjective probability of an event might be dierent from mine. If a calculation has a subjective ingredient, the subjectivity remains in the answer. You cant calculate it away.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

3/4

Common ground

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

4/4

Common ground

These theories agree on the basic rules of calculating probabilities.

Ani Adhikari and Philip Stark

Statistics 2.2X

Lecture 1.1

4/4