Daily Trading Stance Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Theme Comment
The European Commission yesterday released its 2009 E-Z growth forecast: -4% is expected. Germany is forecasted to
contract 5.4%.
US Stocks rallied yesterday on better than expected Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending. Watch out for
today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing.
The Fed is expected to deliver stress-test result to financial sector executive today. Hear-say in the market indicates
that 10 companies need to raise more cash through preferred to common conversion. Financials rallying non-the-less.
Commodities following the stocks higher. Crude actually close to breaking higher, but watch out for API storage today.

Economic Data Releases

Country Time (GMT) Name Expectation Prior Comment
EC 09:00 E-Z PPI YoY (MAR) -2.9% -1.8%
US 14:00 ISM Non-Manuf. Composite (APR) 42.2 40.8
US 14:00 Bernanke testifies before Committee - -

FX Daily stance Comment

EURUSD 0/+ Prefer buy dips. Suppt 1.3325-40 but upside may be limited to 1.3490 MA res
EURJPY 0 200-day MA at 132.95 may cap recent rally. Suppt currently132.30
USDJPY 0/+ Suppt at 98.30-50 likely to hold for re-test of 99.50 o/n highs
GBPUSD 0/+ Abv 1.5030-50 confirms we are heading for 1.5150+ while 1.4920-30 suppts
AUDUSD 0/+ Suppt now at 0.7360-80 for a challenge to new 2009 highs at 0.75

FX-Options Comment
EURUSD Seeing buyers of intraweek EUR calls/USD puts in 1.35-1.3550 area. Likely to see spot
trade higher ahead of the announcements on Thursday and Friday.
GBPUSD Decent buying interest in overnight 1.5050s yesterday so along with EURUSD, this should
trade higher for the next few sessions.
AUDUSD RBA was a nonevent so expect gamma to come under pressure. Aggressive buyer of 7560s
for end May so likely to see spot holding up well.

Equities Daily stance Comment

DAX 0/+ Buy at the break of 4920 targeting 4998 (200 day MA). S/L below 4880.
FTSE 0/+ Buy at the break of 4245 targeting 4335. S/L below 4200.
S&P500 0/+ Buy at the break of 908 targeting 921. S/L below 902.
Nasdaq100 0/+
Nikkei225 0/+

Commodities Daily Stance Comment

Gold(XAUUSD) 0/+ Buy at the break of 907 and target 917. Stop below 902.
Silver(XAGUSD 0/+ Buy at the break of 13.15 and target 13.35. Stop below 13.
) (CLM9)
Oil 0/+ Buy on dips towards 53.20 and target 54.50. Stop below 52.80.

Earnings Releases
Country Time (GMT) Name EPS exp. EPS prior Comment
DE (G(GMT)(GM
- Danske Bank 0.025 -2.165
US Bef-Mkt
T) Archer-Daniels Midland 0.513 0.708
US Aft-Mkt Walt Disney 0.417 0.511
 Daily Trading Stance

US Breakeven 10 Year 140

Top 100 Global Stocks CDS Index
3

2,5
120

100
1,5

1
80

0,5

60
0

-0,5 40
25-dec 25-feb 25-apr 25-jun 25-aug 25-okt 25-dec 25-feb 25-apr 06-05-2008 06-07-2008 06-09-2008 06-11-2008 06-01-2009 06-03-2009

US Breakeven 10 Year Saxo CDS Index

USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring inflation Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the perceived
expectations. default risk in a company. Now at 113.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7

6
30

5
25

4
20

3
15

2
10
1
5
0
0 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 mar-09
apr-07 jun-07 aug-07 okt-07 dec-07 feb-08 apr-08 jun-08 aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09

EUR-USD OPT VOL 1W EUR-USD OPT VOL 1M EUR-USD OPT VOL 1Y Moody BAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield Moody AAA - US Generic Govt 30 Year Yield

Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight corporate debt
markets.

CEE-German Govt. Bond Spreads CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDEX

12 90

80
10
70

8 60

50
6
40

4 30

20
2
10

0 0
jul-08 aug-08 sep-08 okt-08 nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 okt-08 nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09
GDMA Hungarian - German Czech Republic - German Poland - German CBOE SPX VOLATILITY INDX

Some optimism after the G20 meeting. Especially for Hungary. The VIX Index is edging lower. Now below 40.