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DECEMBER 2012

ALJAZIRA CAPITAL
4Q Forcasts for Companies Under Coverage

Research Division Company Reports

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AGM - Head of Research

RESEARCH DIVISION

Abdullah Alawi
+966 2 6618275
Senior Analyst

a.alawi@aljaziracapital.com.sa

Syed Taimure Akhtar


+966 2 6618271
Analyst s.akhtar@aljaziracapital.com.sa

Saleh Al-Quati
+966 2 6618253
s.alquati@aljaziracapital.com.sa

General Manager - Brokerage Division

BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT CENTERS DIVISION

Alaa Al-Yousef
+966 1 2256000

a.yousef@aljaziracapital.com.sa AGM-Head of international and institutional brokerage

Luay Jawad Al-Motawa


+966 1 2256277

lalmutawa@aljaziracapital.com.sa Regional Manager - West and South Regions

Abdullah Al-Misbahi
+966 2 6618404

a.almisbahi@aljaziracapital.com.sa Area Manager - Qassim & Eastern Province

Abdullah Al-Rahit
+966 6 3617547

aalrahit@aljaziracapital.com.sa

Aljazira Capital is a Saudi Investment Company licensed by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), License No. 07076-37

DECEMBER 2012

Petrochemical Sector
Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
Average prices of OPEC crude oil recorded at USD107.2/bbl1, during 4Q2012, as compared to USD106.6/bbl2 recorded in 3Q2012. On the other hand, average prices of naphtha as per Argaam, were recorded at USD942.8/ tonne3, indicating QoQ increase of 2.8%. The following table indicates quarterly price trend of key basic chemicals, intermediaries, polymers and fertilizers;

Quarterly price trend


Amounts are in USD/tonne
Ethylene Propylene Methanol Styrene MTBE** Benzene Polyethylene-HDPE*** MEG**** Polypropylene Polystyrene-Asia PVC-Asia***** PTA-Asia****** VAM******* Acetic Acid Ammonia-Gulf Urea-Gulf

2Q11
1,234.7 1,497.2 344.6 1,405.3 1,153.0 1,144.6 1,360.2 1,153.3 1,613.2 1,545.0 1,197.8 1,272.6 1,354.3 979.4 503.8 415.7

3Q11
1,086.5 1,480.4 388.2 1,455.8 1,123.3 1,121.6 1,370.2 1,242.8 1,533.7 1,577.2 1,092.2 1,248.7 1,191.2 877.1 528.1 509.2

4Q11
1,047.3 1,234.5 397.8 1,300.0 1,100.1 987.1 1,312.2 1,123.7 1,376.7 1,447.5 909.4 1,112.4 1,034.9 750.9 553.2 475.6

1Q12
1,260.1 1,355.2 376.9 1,433.1 1,186.0 1,181.0 1,361.1 1,073.0 1,371.8 1,543.0 995.6 1,180.2 1,037.7 576.6 354.8 431.3

2Q12
1,152.1 1,308.8 388.9 1,374.8 1,094.2 1,115.3 1,344.9 941.7 1,394.3 1,476.5 988.6 1,072.8 1,133.8 604.1 536.7 511.8

3Q12
1,156.9 1,296.7 359.9 1,422.6 1,159.9 1,179.2 1,317.0 1,007.0 1,388.4 1,545.5 946.7 1,038.3 1,019.8 584.3 664.0 426.4

4Q12e*
1,219.0 1,269.0 360.1 1,580.1 1,113.9 1,343.9 1,343.2 1,085.3 1,417.1 1,695.7 951.5 1,108.6 1,017.5 605.8 665.0 426.8

Source: Argaam & ICIS * Average prices during Oct-Mid Dec ** Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether *** High Density Polyethylene **** Mono Ethylene Glycol *****Polyvinyl Chloride ****** Polyethylene Terephthalate Resin ******* Vinyl Acetate Monomer

During 4Q-2012, the following are the key sectors events and their impact on the companies; The increase in the average prices of intermediaries & some polymers (propylene) remained higher than the increase witnessed in basic chemicals (as indicated in above table); thus, possible improvement in gross margins is expected in 4Q2012. YANSAB ethylene glycol (EG) plant went out of operations for 10 weeks from 25th Nov 2012; Potential impact will be on YANSAB and SABIC profitability; where, YANSAB in a press release indicated the no significant impact on YANSAB will be observed in 4Q-2012. However, the financial impact will appear in 1Q2013 earnings. We, therefore, make our 4Q2012 estimates (as indicated in the below table) in accordance with the given information; and believe the company would sell its inventory (produced at low prices) at 4Q2012 prices (higher than 3Q2012). Thus, the gross margin is expected to show QoQ improvement in 4Q2012 and provide a reasonable cushion in the companys profitability during the shutdown period.

Eastern Petrochemical - Sharq plant halted its operations for 10 weeks started from September 2012 to conduct its annual maintenance. Impact will be on SABIC; where the estimates of SABIC are also adjusted with YANSAB and Sharq shutdowns. SAFCO earnings per share is adjusted with the new number of shares i.e. 333.3mn (post bonus shares). In addition, based on the ongoing geo-political risk and location of the companys key producing plants, we add 5% premium (of possible increase in the prices; in case of increase in geo-political tension) to the companys DCF based valuation and; thus arrived at an updated 12-month prices target of SAR145.0/share (as indicated in the below table). Industries Qatar announced the inauguration of its new production line at QAFCO-6. However, QoQ expected decline in the companys profitability, during 4Q2012, is mainly associated with lower sales from MTBE plant; on account of decline in supply of CO2, as per the companys business plan 2012-16. In addition, according to the companys business plan 2012-16, the company will start its new CO2 plant in 1H2014 to overcome the shortage of the respective feedstock; and this will allow MTBE plant to resume its full-scale operations. It should be noted that estimated YoY growth in the profitability is mainly associated with (i) commencement of QAFCO-5 in 1H2012, (ii) expected start of operations at 3rd ethylene plant (EP-3) & 3rd LDPE plant (LDPE-3) of QPACO in 4Q2012 and (iii) YoY higher capacity utilization at steel plant.

1. Average prices during Oct-Mid Dec 2. Average prices during Jul-Sep 3. Average prices during Oct-Mid Dec

DECEMBER 2012

4Q-2012 estimate Petrochemical companies under coverage


Company symbol
2010 2020 2290 2310 2330 2060 IQCD

Company name
Sabic Safco Yansab Sipchem APC Tasnee Industries Qatar

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA KSA KSA KSA KSA KSA Qatar 6,865.5 1,243.5 425.4 174.0 109.2 447.4 2,561.6 2.3 3.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 4.7 8.8% 8.2% -2.4% 11.6% 8.9% 7.2% -2.1% 31.1% -2.6% -36.0% -17.6% 20.5% -17.3% 53.0% 25,752.2 3,963.3 2,234.3 617.5 320.4 1,969.0 9,671.7 104.2 145.0 49.9 20.8 27.1 28.7 176.1

Rating**
Overweight Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Overweight

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated ** Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25th Dec 2012

National Industrialization Company (Tasnee)


We have revisited our estimations of Tansee (as indicated in the following table) and made adjustments in accordance with the prevailing dynamics of Titanium di Oxide (TiO2), a flagship product of the company. The product prices witnessed a significant QoQ decline of 9.6%; where YoY decline was recorded at 6.0%, during the quarter under review. According to the company sources, the decline in prices was mainly associated with the unfavorable demand outlook of TiO2, at least in short to medium term. It should be noted that the company also has considerable exposure in troubled economies i.e. Europe.

4Q-2012 estimate Telecom companies under coverage


Key financial updates 4Q2012 estimates

All figures in SAR mn, unless otherwise stated


Sales revenue CGS Gross profit Gross margins Operating profit Operating margin Net profit Net margin EPS (SAR)

Earlier estimates 2012


19,449 -12,993 6,456 33.19% 4,907 25.23% 2,347 12.1% 3.8

New estimates 2012


17,465 (11,728) 5,738 32.85% 4,216 24.14% 1,969 11.3% 2.9

Upward/ (Downward) revision


-10.2% -9.7% -11.1% -14.1% -16.1%

All figures in SAR mn, unless


otherwise stated

Forecasted net profit Q42012 (SAR mn) 3,987 (2,678) 1,308 32.8% 902 22.6% 447 11.2% 0.67

QoQ growth%
-4.3% -5.3% -2.2% -6.3% 7.2%

YoY growth%
-15.8% -15.0% -17.5% -26.0% -17.3%

Sales revenue CGS Gross profit Gross margins Operating profit Operating margin Net profit Net margin EPS (SAR)

Source: Aljazira Capital

Based on the given information, the upcoming expansion based on the (i) establishment of metal smelter - expected to complete in 2014, (ii) acrylic plant - expected commencement in 2H2013 and Polyol plant - expected to start in 2015; hence, we have not incorporated in our estimations; is indicating the companys focus to broaden the product line and reduce dependence on TiO2. We adjusted our valuation, in accordance with 3Q-2012 financial results & updates mentioned earlier, and arrived at an weighted average 12-month prices target of SAR28.7/share (as compared to our earlier weighted average 12-month price target of SAR43.3/share). This indicates the company is offering a potential upside of 3.6% over the market price of SAR27.7/share (as of 25th Dec 2012). We, therefore, downgrade our recommendation for the stock to Neutral. Analyst comments on 4Q2012 estimates; We believe the expected decline in minority interest in 4Q2012 (as companys normal practice to recognize low minority interest in 4Q) will remain a key reason of QoQ expected growth in net profitability.

DECEMBER 2012

Telecom Sector
Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
We expect the Saudi Telecom sector to benefit from the Hajj season which fell during the start of the quarter. As a result we have expected a rise in companys profitability. Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) we believe will have an added impetuous of IPhone 5 sales which was introduced in the Kingdom on 13th Dec 2012. With more than half a month at Mobilys disposal we expect the company to show strong performance due to Iphone 5 sales. QTELs 122% Y/Y growth is expected due to lower contribution towards minority interest. We already highlighted the fact in our QTEL initiation report that the company has increased its stake in Wataniya (Kuwait) from 52.5% to 92.1%.

4Q-2012 estimate Telecom companies under coverage


Company symbol
7010 7020 QTEL

Company name
Saudi Telecom Etihad Etisalat Co. Qtel

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA KSA Qatar 2,376.7 1,837.0 1,015.7 1.2 2.6 3.2 21.6% 21.5% 122.6% 2.0% 8.2% 5.0% 9,259.3 5,977.0 5,287.2 54.8 89.0 130.0

Rating**
Overweight Overweight Overweight

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated**Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25thDec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

KSA Cement Sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
The Saudi cement sector as expected has shown a recovery in its dispatches after the slow Ramadan and Hajj holiday season. Over all dispatches have been going according to our expectation. However Qassim cement company has been showing low utilization level over the last couple of months. Given the weakness in dispatches we have expected a QoQ fall in earnings. Arabian cement company is also expected to show a decline in earnings because of the shut down in one of its mills due to fire. The company noted that it will lose 1000 tons per day of clinker production for at least 4 months from 9th Oct-2012.

4Q-2012 estimate KSA cement companies under coverage


Company symbol
3050 3020 3040 3010

Company name
Southern Cement Yamama Cement Qassim Cement Arabian Cement

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA KSA KSA KSA 260.4 199.9 135.9 75.7 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 30.0% 27.6% 23.0% -14.0% 4.0% 3.5% -7.0% -4.9% 1,006.8 844.5 553.1 387.8 106.1 55.8 82.0 59.9

Rating**
Neutral Overweight Neutral Overweight

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated**Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25thDec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

KSA Food & Agriculture Sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
Almarai Company (on 15th Dec 2012) announced that it got all necessary clearance to start its infant formula food operation; and hence, the company is ready to produce stage 1, 2 and 3 products i.e. Almarai Enfamil and Almarai Enfagrow. We, therefore, adjusted the companys 4Q2012 earnings, accordingly; and considered 15 days impact in 4Q2012 (as the plant was under trail phase since early 2H2012), where we were initially expecting the commencement of infant food plant in mid 4Q2012. In addition, we believe, due to rigid milk & dairy pricing practice in KSA and rise in production cost, the companys profitability margins will continue to remain under pressure during 4Q2012. Aljouf Development Company (Aljouf) is expecting to reap olive; where, according to a press release, the impact will be observed in 4Q2012 and 1Q2013. On the other hand, the company reduced the value of its Yellow corn (maize) contract with Arasco to SAR34.0mn from SAR45.0mn; where the decline in value is mainly associated with the downward revision in volumes. The contract will be effective in 4Q2012 and thus the financial impact will be observed in 4Q2012 and 1Q2013.

4Q-2012 estimate KSA food & agriculture companies under coverage


Company symbol
2290 6070

Company name
Almarai Co. Aljouf Agriculture Dev Co.

12 months Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net net profit EPS Q4 price Country Rating** growth growth profit-FY2012 Q4-2012 -2012 target in % % (LC* mn) (LC* mn) LC*
KSA KSA 302.6 40.3 0.8 1.6 -32.7% 15.8% 6.0% 18.1% 1,374.2 102.4 64.6 48.1 Neutral Overweight

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated ** Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25th Dec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

Real Estate Sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
Dar Alarkan primary revenue generator is its land sales. For 4Q-2012 we have expected the company to sell 1.25mn sqm of land, at realization of SAR 583/sqm. We are expecting Emaar properties to show improvement in its villa sales. As in the last couple of quarters realization per unit has been low due to low villa sales. However during 4Q-12, higher villa sales will result in improvement in per unit realization.

4Q-2012 estimate Real Estate development companies under coverage


Company symbol
4300 EMAAR

Company name
Dar Al Arkan Emaar

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA UAE 241.3 470.0 0.2 0.08 9.0% 21.0% -16.7% -35.9% 1,085.8 2,079.0 12.1 3.4

Rating**
Overweight Neutral

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated**Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25th Dec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

KSA Retail Sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
Non-food sector witnessed the following key developments in 4Q2012; Induction of IPhone-5, IPad-3, including IPad-mini, Samsung galaxy note II, Nokia-Lumia 820 & 920 and Windows-8. We believe the potential beneficiary will be Jarir marketing company (Jarir); where the company has full range of other smart gadgets (including old version of gadgets) to sell. We, therefore, consider the combination of selling new & old smart gadgets and other electronic items will lead to support in YoY growth in Jarirs 4Q2012 profitability, as indicated in the table below. On fashion apparel front, the quarter (similar to the corresponding quarter last year) remained silent since no major event took place that could derive the demand of related products. Hence, the expected YoY growth in Alhokair profitability is mainly associated with the induction of NESK group along with the addition of new brands throughout 2012.

No major event related to the food retail company (AlOthaim), under our coverage, happened in 4Q2012. Hence, the expected 4Q2012 financial growth is mainly based on the generic demand of goods, during 4Q2012.

4Q-2012 estimate Retail companies under coverage


Company symbol
4190 4001 4240

Company name
Jarir Marketing Co. Abdullah AlOthaim Markets Fawaz Alhokair Co.

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA KSA KSA 143.5 43.3 148.8 2.4 1.9 2.1 -10.7% 6.5% -41.1% 14.9% 18.7% 94.5% 575.5 154.6 671.2 154.8 98.7 109.3

Rating**
Neutral Overweight Neutral

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated ** Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25th Dec 2012prices of 25thDec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

KSA industrial investment sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
Key developments witnessed in industrial investment sector, based on our coverage, are mainly related to Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) i.e. (i) Initial commencement of Aluminum smelter; where the facility (till the start of operation at al-Baitha mine and alumina refinery in 1H2014) will use the required feedstock from Alcoa (25% stakeholder in Maaden Aluminum Company-MAC) to produce Aluminum metal. We believe the company will be able to start selling the related aluminum product in 1Q2013; and hence, no financial impact is expected in 4Q2012.

(ii) Moody announced the possible downgrade of Alcoa credit rating (to junk rating) due to the significant decline in aluminum prices. It should be noted that Maaden has not made any comments on the news; and hence, we are unable to quantify the impact of the news in our estimations. The expected YoY decline in Astra profitability in 4Q2012 is mainly due to the higher operating expense & lower other income, in accordance with the preceding quarter.

4Q-2012 estimate KSA industrial investment companies under coverage


Company symbol
1211 1212 2070

Company name
Ma'aden Astra Industries SPIMACO

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA KSA KSA 316.1 49.4 78.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.6% 13.0% 6.0% -18.0% 141.0% 6.2% 1,001.5 228.7 257.1 39.3 41.0 42.0

Rating**
Overweight Neutral Neutral

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated ** Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25th Dec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

KSA Building and Construction sector


Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
We expect Al Babtain to show good growth in its earnings on the back of boom in the construction activity in the Kingdom and the growing Telecom sector of the Kingdom. We are expecting an improvement in the companys contract book. We expect 4Q 2012 sales growth to remain robust at 33.4% given the companys consolidation with Al-Babtain France.

4Q-2012 estimate KSA Building and Construction sector companies under coverage
Company symbol
2320

Company name
Al Babtain

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
KSA 18.0 0.4 27.2% 15.7% 65.7 26.3

Rating**
Neutral

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated**Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25thDec 2012

DECEMBER 2012

Logistics sector
Result preview . 4Q-2012 Sector update
After a slow 3Q-12 , due the Ramadan and Eid holiday season, Aramex is expected to show an improvement in its earnings.

4Q-2012 estimate Logistcis companies under coverage


Company symbol
ARMX

Company name
Aramex

Forecasted QoQ YoY Forecasted net 12 months net profit EPS Q4 Country growth growth profit-FY2012 price target Q4-2012 -2012 % % (LC* mn) in LC* (LC* mn)
UAE 69.1 0.05 30.0% 21.0% 247.0 2.5

Rating**
Overweight

Source: Aljazira Capital * LC stands for local currency of the country where the respective company is incorporated**Our rating is based on the closing prices of 25thDec 2012

COMPANY PROFILE RATING TERMINOLOGY

AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business.

Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Overweight will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Underweight would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks rated Neutral is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company.

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Disclaimer
The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/ legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by AlJazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but AlJazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. AlJazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases. Some stocks or securities maybe, by nature, of low volume/trades or may become like that unexpectedly in special circumstances and this might increase the risk on the investor. Some fees might be levied on some investments in securities. This report has been written by professional employees in AlJazira Capital, and they undertake that neither them, nor their wives or children hold positions directly in any listed shares or securities contained in this report during the time of publication of this report. This report has been produced independently and separately and no party (in-house or outside) who might have interest whether direct or indirect have seen the contents of this report. It should be also noted that the Research Division of AlJazira Capital had no information at the time of issuing this report regarding any conflict of interest between the company/companies mentioned in this report and any members of the board / executives / employees of AlJazira Capital or any of Bank AlJazira Group companies. No part of this document may be reproduced whether inside or outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia without the written permission of AlJazira Capital. Persons who receive this document should make themselves aware, of and adhere to, any such restrictions. By accepting this document, the recipient agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations.

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