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Market Commentary:

0.34

Historical Yields
Treasury (2 Year)

Anticipating a busy week of economic announcements, the markets were relatively quiet on Monday. Looking ahead, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and monthly jobs report are expected to be the main drivers this week. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week up four basis points to 2.60%. The consumer confidence report was released on Tuesday, which showed a slight decline from the last report and was shy of what speculators were hoping to see. That said, readings on overall July conditions are quite positive. The markets reaction remained reserved for the release of Wednesdays FOMC statement. The 10-Year Treasury gained another point on Tuesday to close at 2.61%. With Wednesday came the anticipated FOMC meeting announcement. Overall, the changes were very limited as compared to the prior statement issued by the FOMC. There was no reduction in quantitative easing, but the door was left open. The Fed funds target rate remained unchanged, holding between 0 and 0.25%. The characterization of the economy was downgraded with a change in verbiage used to describe the expansion of economic activity choosing to characterize it as modest as opposed to the previously used moderate. The labor market remains a focus as we have seen slight improvement, yet unemployment remains high. Along with this report, we also got GDP results for Q2 2013, which beat expectations. The annualized GDP came in at 1.7%, which beat the 1.1% rise we saw in Q1 and 1.1%projection for the second quarter. Wednesday closed with the 10-year Treasury yield giving back three points to close at 2.58%. As has been the case in recent weeks following big Wednesday announcements from the Fed, the reaction was felt on Thursday. With an economy that seems to continue fortifying and the Fed keeping stimulus flow in place, it seems to be the best of both worlds. A very strong day started out with great results in ISMs manufacturing sample report, which was up 4.5 points to 55.5; 2.3 points over what was anticipated, which resulted in the strongest reading in more than two years. The 10year Treasury yield climbed 13 basis points to close at 2.71%. The week ended packed with economic announcements led by the highly anticipated nonfarm payroll report and personal income report being released on Friday morning. Nonfarm payroll came in less than expected at a 162,000 increase in total payroll jobs as compared to the projected 175,000. Net revisions from May and June were down 26,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% from 7.6% the prior month and 0.1% lower than the projection of 7.5%. Personal income and spending was also reported on Friday with personal income growth numbers from June coming in slightly below forecasts of 0.4% at 0.3%. Consumer spending was up 0.5% led by nondurables (mainly gasoline) with durables contributing as well thanks to auto sales. The 10-year Treasury remitted most of Thursdays gains, closing the week at 2.60%. The two-year Treasury yield closed at 0.30%, a one basis point decrease from last week. The 10year Treasury yield gained four basis points to 2.60%. The 30-year Treasury yield dropped eight basis points to close the week at 3.63%.

0.32 0.3 0.28 3

Treasury (10 Year)

Percent

2.5 2 3.8 3.7 3.6 Treasury (30 Year)

3.5 7/26/13 7/29/13 Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

7/30/13

7/31/13

8/1/13

8/2/13

Treasury Curve
4 3
Percent

2 1 0 0.1 0.5 2.0


Years

5.0

10.0

Current
Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

1 month ago

1 year ago

500 400
Spread

Treasury Spread

300 200 100


0

Jan-07 Jan-08 2yr vs 10yr Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

-100 Jan-06

Jan-09

Jan-10 10yr vs 30yr

Jan-11

Jan-12 2yr vs 30yr

Jan-13

Economic Calendar
Monday, July 29
Last Revised Survey Pending Home Sales MoM 6.70% -1.00% Pending Home Sales YoY 12.50% 8.30% Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 6.5 7.5 Actual -0.40% 9.10% 4.4

Tuesday, July 30

Wednesday, July 31
Actual -3.70% 200k 0.50% 0.70%

Thursday, August 01
Last Revised Survey Actual Initial Jobless Claims 343k 345k 326k Continuing Claims 2997k 2996k 2951k Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.30 -27.00 Domestic Vehicle Sales 12.43M 12.40M 12.09M

Friday, August 02
Last Revised Survey Unemployment Rate 7.60% 7.50% Personal Income 0.50% 0.40% Personal Spending 0.30% 0.50% Factory Orders 2.1% 2.3% Actual 7.40% 0.30% 0.50% 1.5%

Last Revised Survey Actual Last Revised Survey S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA MBA Mortgage Applications 1.72% 1.40% 1.05% -1.20% S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY ADP Employment Change 12.05% 12.40% 12.17% 188k 180k S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index NSA Employment Cost Index 152.37 156.14 0.40% 0.30% Consumer Confidence Index GDP Price Index 81.4 81.3 80.3 1.00% 1.20%

Monday, August 05
Last Revised Survey ISM Non-Manf. Composite 52.2 53.1 Actual

Tuesday, August 06
Last Revised Survey Actual Trade Balance -$45.0B -$43.2B IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.1 47.5 JOLTs Job Openings 3828 3895

Wednesday, August 07
Last Revised Survey Actual MBA Mortgage Applications -3.70% Consumer Credit $19.615B $15.000B

Thursday, August 08
Last Revised Survey Actual Initial Jobless Claims 326k 336k Continuing Claims 2951k 2950k Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.00 Mortgage Delinquencies 7.25%

Friday, August 09
Last Revised Survey Actual Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.50% 0.40% Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.60% 0.70%

Source: Bloomberg and Piper Jaffray

August 3, 2013
This material is a product of the Fixed Income Services trading desk and should not be construed as impartial research or a research report.

Money Market Commentary:


The front end continues to see solid demand for bonds inside of five years. The market was quiet following the jobs data on Friday, but the front end continues to attract investors as they opt to stay on the shorter end of the yield curve. Although supply is light, there is opportunity for credit and structure in the space. The SIFMA index reset last week at 0.05%, which was one basis point lower than the prior week. Accounts continue to benefit from cash enhanced by the Aug. 1 coupon payment.
LIBOR Curve
0.8 Percentage

4 3 2 1 0 0 5

SIFMA & LIBOR Swap Curves

10 LIBOR

15

20

25

30

SIFMA Swap Curve

SIFMA Swap % of LIBOR


100% 90% 80% 52% 56% 70% 60% 50% 1 2 90% 62% 66% 71% 76% 80% 84% 86% Percentage

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

5 7 Year SIFMA Swap % of LIBOR

10

15

20

30

SIFMA Municipal Swap Index


0.40

0.6 0.20 0.4 0.13 0.2 0.00 Aug-12 Oct-12


May-13

0.05 Nov-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-12 Apr-13 Jul-13 360

0 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Years Libor Curve
Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

Fed Funds Target Rate


2 1.5 Percent 0.2 1 0.3

Short Term Money Market Rates

0.5 0 Q1 12

0.1

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Q1 13 0 0 90 T- bill
Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Bloomberg Weighted Average


Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

High Forecast

Low Forecast

Median

180 Days Discount Notes

270 Dealer CP Top Tier

August 3, 2013

Agency Market Commentary:


6

On-the-run Treasury/Bullet Agency Yield Curves

Monday we witnessed a nice move tighter as dealers covered their shorts. Unfortunately, on Thursday we gave up that tightening as treasuries were for sale. There was very little liquidity outside of 7 years. 10 years+ bullets are difficult to move even after the tightening of the 1/22s during July (wide print +35, currently +17 bid). Callable issuance was very lite again. ~12 billion in callables printed in July, which was the smallest amount since October 2008 when the GSEs went into conservatorship. Accounts have become just as risk adverse as dealers.

Yield (%)

Right back to where we started. Agency market was a touch more volatile last week as everyone prepared for the jobs number. However, bullets are looking almost unchanged on the week.

0 0
-2

10

15

20

25

30

Bullet Agency Yield Curves


Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

On-the-run Treasury

Discounted paper from 17 to 20 has a nicely framed market: ~pick 15-20 basis points over bullets.
4

Swap Curve

0.6

Futures Rates
3

0.5
0.4 0.3

0.1 0
Mar-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Nov-14

Percent
Fed Fund Futures Eurodollar Futures

0.2

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Short Term Rates

0.75

0
0.5

0.1

2.0

7.0 Years
Current 1 month ago

12.0

40.0

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray


0.25

0 1 month

1 year ago

3 month Discount Notes

6 month Libor

1 year

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

August 3, 2013

Mortgage Market Commentary:


Last week, mortgages finished a few ticks tighter versus the Treasury curve as a weaker payroll number drove rates lower and stabilized MBS spreads. The market remains highly directional and vulnerable to increased implied volatility in a selloff. However, technicals remain positive with the Fed absorbing daily supply and hedge adjusted carry continues to improve across the coupon stack. Also, post Fed and payrolls, pushing out expectations of Fed tapering and weaker economic data should keep rates range bound, supporting the MBS basis. In collateral activity on the week, we saw bank demand increase for shorter duration product. Activity picked up for 10 year 2s and 2.5s, as well as 15 year 2.5s and 3s. There was less inquiry on the 20 year sector due to their longer durations despite the sector cheapening to the lower end of the 15/30 year price ratio range. Also, banks are more active in shorter reset hybrids as 5/1s & 7/1s trade as alternatives to 10 year Ams, with spreads lagging behind the tightening move of 15 year collateral. In CMOs, banks are buying cheap relative value stories as an alternative to 15 year product. One story that makes sense is front sequentials backed by GNMA MJM collateral. With a 3% coupon and a stable profile of a 3.4 year average life in the base case with extension out to only 5.9yrs +300, this cashflow is almost 1 points back of dwarf 3s & 1-12 points back of midget 3s. This is an excellent 15 year alternative for banks not only much cheaper in dollar vs. conventionals with a similar profile, but also a 0% risk weight GN label as well. Another story where bank demand has increased is in 4 year PACs off seasoned collateral. The sweet spot in this sector is also the 3% coupon which prices out a point behind 15 year 3 collateral. Banks are not only attracted to the cheap pricing, but the very stable structure that passes the FMED test has a short principal window and protection from extension risk due to the PAC structure.

FNMA (15 Year)/ Treasury (5 Year)


8

FNMA (30 Year) / Treasury (10 Year)

Yield (%)

Yield (%)

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12 Dec-12

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Dec-12

15 Year FNMA
Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Treasury 5 Year
Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

30 Year FNMA

Treasury 10 Year

15 Year FNMA
Coupon Price PSA Yield Average Life Spread 2.5 99-28 160 2.505 5.72 89 3 3.5 4 102-25 104-25 105-29 205 246 256 2.395 2.408 2.633 5.29 4.95 4.90 92 104 129 4.5 106-11 256 3.022 4.93 166 Coupon Price PSA Yield Average Life Spread

30 Year FNMA
3 96-28 125 3.406 9.65 80 3.5 4 100-25 103-30 151 200 3.381 3.349 8.82 7.51 96 121 4.5 106-2 278 3.297 6.02 158 5 107-28 385 3.093 4.75 180

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray August 3, 2013

Tax-Exempt Municipal Market Commentary:


The municipal market was largely unchanged last week. A volatile Treasury market after both the Fed meeting and

AAA GO Municipal Curves


5
4

Fridays unemployment number was not enough to push municipals as participants stayed on the sidelines and waited for this weeks calendar.

Supply was manageable at just under $5 Billion but further municipal fund outflows continue to make investors cautious. The municipal market will have a bigger test this week with a calendar approaching $6.6 Billion. While the negotiated market has a number of different credits in the market, the competitive side has 3 large GO deals that will test the benchmark curve. Minnesota will have $465mm on Tuesday, with $800mm Washingtons and $138mm Alabamas following on Wednesday. On the plus side, we have seen crossover buyers enter the market as ratios to Treasuries have remained at attractive levels.
Yield (%)

3
2 1

Municipal Underwritings
Par (000s) 1,425 1,976 5,277 9,560 55,555 31,000 Issuer Piper Municipal Underwritings CA College of Sequoias Tulare Dist No. 3 GO 08 Elec 13C CA College of Sequoias Tulare Dist No. 3 GO 08 Elec 13C Conv CAB CA College of Sequoias Tulare Dist No. 3 GO BANs 13 ID Sch Dist #281 Moscow GO 2013B Tax-Exempt KS DFA Rev-Wichita State Univ Student Hsng 2013F-1 OR Klamath County Sch Dist GO 2013 Negotiated Calendar CA Yosemite Unified Sch Dist COP 13 TX Austin ISD Unltd Tax Refunding 13 CA King City Union Sch Dist 2013-2014 TRAN MO Central Cass County Fire Protect Dist GO 13 CO Red Sky Ranch Metro Dist Eagle Cty GO Ref Focus Competitive Deals St Louis County GO 13A Cap Improvement MN GO State Trunk Highway 13B Schertz-Cibolo Unlimited Tax School GO Westborough GO Muni Purp Loan State CA CA CA ID KS OR Piper Role Sr.Mgr Sr.Mgr Sr.Mgr Sr.Mgr Sr.Mgr Sr.Mgr Deal Type Sole Sole Sole Sole Sole Sole N/C Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated Competetive Negotiated Pricing Date 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/1 8/2

0 1 6
Current
Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

11
Years

16
1 Month Ago

21
1 Year Ago

26

Benchmark Municipal Rates


6

Yield (%)

4,000 82,970 2,000 990 7,000

CA TX CA MO CO

Sr.Mgr Sole Co-Mgr Syndicate Sr.Mgr Sole Sr.Mgr Sole Co-Snr Syndicate

Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated

8/6 8/6 8/7 8/7 8/8

21,355 200,000 42,450 36,824

MN MN MN MN

8/5 8/6 8/7 8/7

6
AAA GO

11

16 Years AA GO

21
A GO

26
BAA GO

Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

30 Day Visible Supply


18.00

16.00 14.00
$US Billions 12.00

10.00
8.00 6.00

4.00
2.00

0.00 8/2/2013
Source: Piper Jaffray
Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

8/2/2012

30-Day Avg

2012 Low

2012 High

250

AAA GO Vs Treasury
Treasury Treas Maturity (years) Yield

Municipal Yields vs Treasuries


AAA Spread (BPS) % of Treas Yield AA Spread % of Treas Yield (BPS) A Spread (BPS) % of Treas Yield BAA Spread (BPS) % of Treas

200
150 100
1 2 3 5 10 15 20 30

50
0 Jan-06

0.10 0.30 0.58 1.36 2.61 3.15 3.42 3.69

0.18 0.43 0.72 1.31 2.71 3.55 3.94 4.22

8 13 14 -5 10 40 52 53

180% 143% 124% 96% 104% 113% 115% 114%

0.24 0.51 0.82 1.48 2.96 3.84 4.23 4.52

14 21 24 12 35 69 81 83

240% 170% 141% 109% 113% 122% 124% 122%

0.39 0.71 1.03 1.79 3.44 4.33 4.71 4.93

29 41 45 43 83 118 129 124

390% 237% 178% 132% 132% 137% 138% 134%

0.94 1.49 1.91 2.57 4.08 4.90 5.17 5.36

84 119 133 121 147 175 175 167

940% 497% 329% 189% 156% 156% 151% 145%

Basis Point

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13
Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

5 Year
Source: Thomson Municipal Market Monitor

10 year

30 Year

August 3, 2013

Corporate Market Commentary:


190

CDX Vs VIX
70 50 30 10 -10 -30 -50 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 VIX VIX Jul-13

It was a somewhat quiet week overall in credit especially Thursday with the pending economic number. IG opened Monday at 76 and closed at 72.

170 150

Trace volumes were average to on the low side last week. In the 7-12 year range, the most active sectors continue to be finance and energy. Names include Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, General Electric Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. On the shorter side, bonds and yield are still somewhat hard to come by. Clients are willing to exchange ratings for yield more often it seems.
The new issue market was busy. Names include Kinder Morgan, Halliburton Co., Icahn Enterprises, Huntington, WellPoint Inc., Celgene Corp, Credit Suisse Group AG, Standard Pac Corp. to name a few.

CDX

130 110 90 70 Jun-11

CDX

VIX Index

CDX Vs VIX 30 Days


90 40 35

85
30 80 CDX 25

20
75 15 10 70 5 65 5-Jul-13 0

15-Jul-13

25-Jul-13

CDX

VIX Index

140 130 120 110 100 90 80

BAC
140
130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan-13 Mar-13 Aug-12 Sep-12 Feb-13

GS

125 120 115

CISCO

120 110 100 90 80

WMT

110
105 100 95 90 Aug-12 Apr-13 May-13 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-12

Apr-13

Jun-13

Oct-12

May-13

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

May-13 May-13

Dec-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Aug-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

May-13

Aug-12

Sep-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Dec-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

130 120 110 100 90 80 Oct-12

JPM

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 Aug-12

GE
140
130 120 110 100

Nov-12

Oct-12

Pfizer

Jun-13

Oct-12

140
130 120 110 100

AT & T

Sep-12

Nov-12

Feb-13 Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Oct-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

Aug-12

May-13

Sep-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

Dec-12

Apr-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

90 Oct-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Jun-13 Aug-12 Apr-13 May-13

Oct-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

Aug-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

Sep-12

Nov-12

Feb-13

Apr-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Dec-12

Source: Bloomberg, Piper Jaffray

Dec-12

August 3, 2013

Jul-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jul-13

Preferred/Capital Securities Market Commentary:


Quarterly S&P Preferred Index Price Return For the second consecutive week, the $25 par market was down. As of Thursdays close, the Standard & Poors
Preferred Stock Index (SPPREF) was down 81 bps. Similar performance was exhibited by the Wells Fargo Hybrid and Preferred Financial Index (WHPSF) that was off 66 bps as of Thursdays close. On Friday, the market pushed higher and the WHPSF Index was up 17 bps by midday.
860
850

840 830 820 810 800 790 780 770


760 750

Price movements in the $1000 par market were more security specific than unusual. On average, we believe that the more liquid issues were down 5/8 point. However, the range of price movements for specific securities was anywhere from down 1.25 points to up 1.25 points. As July came to an end, new issuance totaled $44.01 billion across $25 and $1000 par securities. Net new issuance for the year to date is only $2 billion. We expect net new issuance to grow more rapidly over the remainder of the year as we expect redemptions to ebb. Year to date, $25 par issuance has been $22.14 billion, only slightly higher than the $1000 par level of $21.87 billion.
Given the slowdown in issuance since May, we revise our 2013 primary market projection to be $76 billion, which is a reduction of 15% from our earlier estimate of $90 billion. Noteworthy in the news this past week were the earnings announcements from the European banks. Among the eye catching announcements were the news items from Lloyds and Barclays. In Barclays case, they announced they are looking to raise GBP 5.8 billion in ordinary shares. We always view the addition of common equity as a positive for preferred/Tier 1 holders. In Lloyds case, improved earnings and the communication of their discussion to potentially restore ordinary dividends in the near term cheered investors in most U.K. banks. As the week closed, we became focused on the announcements from RBS. We view their 2Q earnings much the same as we have viewed RBS earnings over the past one or two years: two steps forward, one step back. However, the market response to their news was neutral. We believe that market participants in RBS preferred/capital securities have been focused on the potential for problems arising if the government were to ever adopt a good-bank/bad-bank solution. We believe that such an outcome is a low probability event. However, we expect it to cast a shadow on the market until the fall. On Fridays fixed income call, the following points relevant to this topic were made: RBS management noted the whole reason for the Rothschild/Blackrock study is to facilitate privatization. RBS said that it is their view that anything that causes a credit event (such as a write -down of securities) will not facilitate a privatization. They state that HMT (HER Majestys Treasury) shared this view. RBS management noted that they have studied the good bank/bad bank option at length in the past. They could not achieve a workable solution using such a mechanism and prepared the bank for privatization. Management also described the process of the Rothschild/Blackrock study as one that is interactive and consultative with RBS management. Finally, they noted it was their understanding that any dramatic changes to the RBS structure would most likely still have to be voted upon by the minority (public) shareholders.

8/1/13

7/29/13

7/30/13

BAC 8% $1000 Par


120 115 110 105 100 95
90

85 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jan-13 May-10 May-11 May-12 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jul-13
Jul-12

Source: Bloomberg and Piper Jaffray

7/31/13

August 3, 2013

8/2/13

Dec-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 Apr-13 May-13 May-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Jul-13 Jul-13

WF Hyb & Index


1532 1531 1530 1529 1528 1527 1526 1525 1524 1523 1522 1521

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