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Bhupali Gursale
022-3935 7800 Ext: 6820 bhupali.gursale@angelbroking.com
As per Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial output for July 2013 surprised positively, with 2.6% growth, in contrast with market expectations of a 0.5% contraction.
The July 2013 IIP expanded after two straight months of contraction. It compares with a decline of 1.8% in the previous month and 0.1% in July 2012.
The spurt in IIP growth can be mainly attributed to the 15.6% expansion in capital goods production.
Excluding the capital goods index, the IIP reported a modest 0.7% growth. On a cumulative basis, during April July of FY2014, the IIP reported a marginal 0.2% decline as mining and manufacturing posted a de-growth of 4.0% and 0.2% respectively and electricity gained by 4.0%.
IIP data for June 2013 has been revised upwards by 40bp owing to a lower 1.7% de-growth in manufacturing production than reported earlier.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for August 2013 moderated slightly to come in at 9.5% as against 9.6% in July 2013 owing mainly to deceleration in rural fuel inflation.
We
believe
that
the
IIP
for
August
2013
is
also
likely
to
expand
at a similar pace owing to strong electricity production, pick up in exports and performance of automobile production.
Jul-13 2.6 (2.3) 3.0 5.2 1.7 15.6 2.4 (0.9) (9.3) 6.8
Jun-13 (1.8) (4.3) (1.7) (1.5) (5.8) 1.3 (1.9) (10.4) 5.7
May-13 (2.8) (5.9) (3.6) 6.2 (0.9) (2.6) 1.0 (7.1) (18.4) 3.0
Jul-12 (0.1) (3.5) 2.8 1.0 (5.8) 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.6
FY14YTD (0.2) (4.0) (0.2) 3.9 0.2 1.8 1.8 (2.0) (12.0) 6.8
FY13YTD (0.2) (2.0) (0.6) 5.5 2.7 (16.8) 0.6 3.1 6.1 0.6
1000 141.57 755.27 103.16 456.82 88.25 156.86 298.08 84.60 213.47
Aug-12 10.0 12.0 8.6 16.0 18.4 11.6 11.5 2.8 20.8 8.0 17.5 9.4 9.0 10.7 7.5 10.8 10.6 6.8
Mar-13 10.4 12.3 17.6 11.4 11.7 14.4 7.7 5.1 12.2 10.7 11.7 10.3 10.5 11.1 8.3 10.5 10.6 7.4
Apr-13 9.4 10.7 16.7 10.9 7.5 13.7 7.0 5.5 5.8 8.0 10.5 10.3 10.3 9.9 8.1 10.6 10.3 7.0
May-13 9.3 10.7 16.3 9.6 5.5 12.5 7.1 6.4 10.0 6.0 9.2 10.5 10.3 9.5 8.5 10.7 9.7 6.1
Jun-13 9.9 11.7 17.5 8.9 5.2 12.8 8.0 7.7 14.7 7.4 9.1 10.9 10.5 9.7 8.6 10.7 9.6 6.2
Jul-13 9.6 11.0 15.9 5.6 2.8 13.7 8.1 7.4 16.1 6.8 5.4 10.2 10.0 8.7 8.4 10.6 9.3 6.7
Aug-13 9.5 11.0 14.1 1.7 0.8 13.7 7.9 6.2 26.5 5.2 -2.5 10.1 9.8 8.7 7.6 10.5 9.0 7.1
100.0 49.7 14.6 2.7 3.9 2.9 7.7 1.7 5.4 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.8 2.1 9.5 9.8 4.7 26.3
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