Decline Curve Analysis

Introduction
Graphic method graphs papers to sophisticated software. Means of predicting Oil well production behavior at different points in time based on the oil well production history. Is a traditional mean of identifying well production problems and predicting well performance and life based on measured oil well production. Curve fitting of performance with certain standard curves leads to extrapolation to predict potential future performance of the reservoir assuming the same trend. Basic tool for recoverable reserves estimation.

Decline in Production
Loss of reservoir pressure. Change in produced fluid ratio. Increase in secondary fluid volume entering the wellstream. Change in drive mechanisms. Saturation and permeability changes. Decline might be caused by politics, malfunctions, sabotage, depletion and other factors.

Decline in Production
Politics-driven decline usually disappears once the political tensions have been resolved, and this was clearly seen after the oil crises of the 1970s when Middle East resumed their oil export to the western countries. The driving force behind decline can be political or socioeconomic, representing manmade restrictions on the utilization of a reservoir In a similar way, economics-driven decline might be seen in fields where lack of payments, service, modernization and investments has reduced the production flow. Also in this case, decline usually disappears once more investments have been made or the economic situation returned to normal.

Advantages
Data is easy to obtain. Easy to plot. Doesnt require any kind of knowledge of reservoir characteristics. Yields results on a time basis. Easy to analyze. Low cost. Time efficient. Easily programmable.

Limitations
Often dismissed as qualitative exercise. Poor quality production history may lead to bad interpretation. A simplistic view of decline curve can lead to wide misuse often caused by misunderstanding. Decline curves are relevant for boundary layer flow only. Change in operating condition usually change the shape of the curve Interpretation of future production for low permeability , multilayered or fractured reservoir is very difficult because of highly variable and uncertain effects. Changes in operating conditions and any potential changes have to be taken into account while developing equation.

Limitations
Some production history is required. Usually 10% reserves should have been produced before applying decline curve for good results. Doesnt encompass all reservoir properties in prediction.

Types of Decline

Exponential decline

Exponential decline curve (Arps Model)

Decline rate, D, is constant, the production is said to follow an exponential decline.

Differential form

b-exponent term - the time-rate-change of the reciprocal of the decline rate i.e.

or

Exponential decline curve (Arps Model)

On integration from 0 to t and Di. to D

On substituting D

For exponential curve exponent term b=0 which implies that decline rate remains constant i.e. D= Di. Putting b=0 in above equation, we get

Exponential decline curve (Arps Model)

Integrating we get Taking log on both sides, we get

This gives an equation of a straight line with logarithm of production rate on y axis and time on x axis. Intercept on y axis: lnqi and Slope: -D

Exponential decline curve (Arps Model)

Cumulative production

This too, gives a straight line when plotted as Flow Rate vs. Cumulative Production. Slope: -D. Intercept on y axis :qi

Curve Characteristics

Flow rate/Production rate vs Time

Curve Characteristics

Flow rate/Production rate vs Cumulative Production

Curve Characteristics
Simple straight-line relationship, makes the easiest to recognize, and the simplest to use, when compared to the other decline curves (hyperbolic or harmonic). Also the most commonly used of all the decline curves. Semi-log plots of rate vs. time does not straighten all the rate data because, initially, the well is in transient flow or flush production. Decline curve analysis is used to model stabilized flow, not transient flow; hence, the early time data will often not follow the trend of the stabilized flow period. Theoretically, well producing at constant backpressure, exponential decline is equivalent to boundary dominated flow, which occurs only after the end of transient flow.

Curve Characteristics
Ideally plots of log-rate vs. time, and rate vs. cumulative production should both result in straight lines from which the decline rate can be determined. However, if the flow rate is intermittent (may be due to market restrictions, a well only produces two weeks in any given month and is shutin for the rest of the month), the log-rate vs. time graph will give misleading declines (because it does not account for shut-in durations), whereas the rate vs. cumulative production will give the correct straight line and decline rate. Emphasis should be given accordingly to the plot of rate vs. cumulative production graph, in preference to the log-rate vs. time graph.

Nominal decline rate method

Lets define nominal decline rate as

or

Also, we know

For equal time interval t=1

Therefore

Nominal decline rate method

Parameters can be redefined as

Deviation from Exponential Curve

Presence of transient condition Water influx and influence of gas cap expansion mechanism Change in compressibility and mobility ratios of reservoir fluids

Hyperbolic decline