Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Name of the Market/Country Developed Markets Greece Spain France Germany US UK Hong Kong Taiwan Emerging Markets South Korea China Indonesia India
Index Returns (Jan 2011) US$ +15.30% +12.14% +7.70% +4.73% +2.72% +1.93% +1.47% +2.84% +1.34% -0.44% -8.49% -12.97%
Within the market fall, the mid-cap segment has taken the maximum brunt of the fall with BSE 500 falling by 12.76%, CNX Mid-Cap Index falling by 12.85% and BSE Small Cap Index falling by 14.63%. FIIs have net sold $1.2bn during the month and DIIs have bought net $919mn. The Concerns: Indian markets have been affected over the past two to three months by concerns about issues which we explain in detail below: Political Standoff We have seen, over the past three months, intensive debates/agitation between the ruling UPA party and the opposition BJP party, on various issues, led by corruption scandals like the 2G spectrum. This has resulted in the government not being able to function effectively, including the winter session of Parliament not conducting any business. This has taken a toll on government decision making and thereby on government spending in the economy, temporarily. The resultant effect has been that liquidity in the system has dried up significantly and government budgets have not yet been used to the fullest extent. Also, there is a sense of unease in terms of whether the current government will survive its full fiveyear term or whether there is any chance of a fresh general election including the replacement of the current Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.
At current valuations of 13-14 times, we think it makes sense to add to our exposure to equities and would recommend you to take advantage of the current market fall by doing a gradual systematic investment over the next three to four months. We continue to be positive on the domestic consumption story and infra theme. We are confident that markets will make new life-time highs in 2011, despite some near-term macro and political headwinds. We continue to advocate bottom-up stock picking.
Hiren Ved Chief Investment Officer Alchemy Capital Management Pvt. Ltd
01-Jan-03
01-Jan-04
01-Jan-05
01-Jan-06
01-Jan-07
01-Jan-08
01-Jan-09
01-Jan-10
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Portfolio Performance The current market fall has taken a toll on our portfolio performance, especially since November 2010. We continued to perform better in terms portfolio performance up to early November 2010, but we have seen an unusual fall in the mid-cap segment in spite of a strong fundamental performance. Our set of companies as mentioned above has continued to deliver a strong set of numbers and are on track to deliver a 25-30% growth in earnings, at least for the next 12 months. In such a scenario, we expect our performance to revert to normal, going ahead. Below, we explain in detail our views on the stocks which have not performed in line with the markets in the past: Bombay Dyeing - the real estate sector has taken a sharp beating over the past three months on concerns of high leverage in various companies and the impact it could have on profitability. However, we think Bombay Dyeing is about to see a significant change in its fundamental performance on the back of its 1.5-2mn sq. ft (msf) residential project launch in Wadala, by March 2011. Based on current a realisation of Rs 15,000+ per sq. ft (psf) we estimate that the company will be able to earn close to 2,000 cr of profits over the next three to four years. The company has a total developable area of more than 8 msf in Wadala and Worli, Mumbai which it plans to develop and sell over the next seven to eight years, which can create large shareholder value in the long term. In terms of valuations, the company is, today, trading at an enterprise value of Rs3,250 cr. We believe it will develop close to 8 msf over the next seven to eight years, which means that the market today is valuing the land bank at an EV of Rs4,000 psf. However, we expect the company to earn more than Rs10,000 psf as profits on the land bank it owns. The company also has two other businesses, i.e. Textiles and PSF, the value of which would be additional. We think the company is trading at deep value and value unlocking should start reflecting in the market return over the next 6-12 months. IVRCL Assets & Holdings IVR is an infrastructure developer and owns 10 large assets worth 12,000 cr including seven roads, one water desalination plant, one oil storage plant and one sewage treatment plant. The company has taken a beating in the markets since our investments, due to its need to raise fresh capital of close to Rs250 cr and the general negative view of the market on the overall infrastructure sector. The company today is trading at 0.5 times its FY10 price to book, which is extremely low for assets which will deliver an ROE of between 15-18%. We are reviewing this company and our position on a regular basis and if equity raising continues to be difficult, then we will not hesitate in booking losses on the stock. Aptech Ltd The company is the largest IT and multimedia training company in India and a few global markets like China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, etc. We expect the company to deliver strong growth in profitability as it expands the scope of business in global markets and diversifies into new verticals of education in India, like K-12 schools. We expect the company to use its zero debt balance sheet to invest in newer verticals, which can drive future profit growth substantially, going ahead. In terms of current business, we expect the company to report strong profit growth of >40% CAGR with positive cash flows. In addition to the base business, the company holds a 22% stake in the largest education company in China. The company intends to exploit the value of this stake by partially selling in the event of an IPO on the markets.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
BF Utilities This company is a play on Bangalore real estate. The Karnataka government signed an agreement with the company in 1998 to develop the Bangalore-Mysore Infrastructure Corridor, consisting of a six-lane highway connecting Bangalore and Mysore and, in lieu of this road development, the government provided 20,000 acres of land to be developed by the company. The company has divided the whole project into five phases, which it intends to develop over the next 1015 years. Since then, company has completed the road project and started collecting the toll, and the daily toll collection has increased to Rs30 lac per day. Apart from this, it has started exploiting the land bank which it owns in and around Bangalore, for residential/commercial use and has signed three to four joint-development agreements with various reputed builders. We think FY12 should be the first year the company will earn profits from real-estate development. It has also sold a minor stake in Phase I (consists of 6,173 acres land out of the total 20,000 acres) of the project to a PE player for Rs500 cr, which puts the value of just phase I of the total project at more than the current market cap of the company. We think that once the company starts showing profits from the real-estate development in FY12, the market will start rewarding its shareholders. Portfolio Strategy: The average equity holding in portfolios today is between 85-90%. We intend to use the current correction to add to our exposure to the banking and finance stocks and certain select IT and infra stocks. Our bias is towards companies which are leaders in their respective domains, with a competent management team and a strong balance sheet. In the short to medium term, our weighting towards large cap stocks may be higher to take advantage of the expected move-up in the markets, post-which we will buy back select mid-cap stocks for the long term.
Portfolio Action: Start of 2011 was an unusually volatile month for the Indian markets with BSE 500
correcting by 10.5% led by FIIs selling to the tune of $1.4 bn while domestic institutions buying $131 mn. Indian markets are among very few globally, which fell sharply during the month of January in fact majority of global markets were up strongly during the month. Events over the past 2-3 months, more on the political front on account of various corruption scandals has led to decision making from the government come to a standstill affecting liquidity in the system thereby affecting sentiment in the markets negatively. Q3FY11 earnings growth till date is coming out to be a strong quarter with broader market earnings growth coming at closer to 22%+, select companies out of this have reported growth in excess of 50%. We continue to expect corporate earnings growth of 18% for FY11 and between 15-18% growth in FY12. At current nifty levels of 5500, the market is trading at reasonable valuations of 13-14 times FY12 earnings. Mid cap stocks due to the poor sentiment and sharp correction seen during the month are trading at a significant discount to the Nifty companies. CNX Mid Cap Index is trading at a 450 bps discount to Nifty valuations currently compared to last 10 years average discount of 200-250 bps. We believe this gap should narrow going ahead based on our earnings growth expectations on a sustainable basis. During the month our portfolios have taken a beating on the back of a large correction in the markets. However, we would like to highlight that our set of companies have reported strong earnings growth of >30% for Q3FY11 till date. We expect our performance to rebound going ahead as we do not see any fundamental reason for a correction and valuation for our portfolio companies have become even more attractive. We have built a portfolio today which we believe can deliver an earnings growth in excess of 25% over the next 2 years and where risk reward is favourable. Overall, we are optimistic on the risk reward for equity investment on a long term basis.
BSE 500
120.00
CAGR: 31.5%
80.00
CAGR: 22.6%
40.00
0.00 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10
160.0%
134.9% 101.1%
120.0%
90.2% 58.7%
80.0%
17.5%
17.3% 16.4%
-40.0% -56.1% -80.0% CY 2002* CY 2003 CY 2004 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 CY 2008 CY 2009 CY 2010 YTD 2011
TOP 10 HOLDINGS
SCRIP BAJAJ AUTO FINANCE LTD SINTEX INDUSTRIES LTD MAYTAS INFRA LTD PTC INDIA BOMBAY DYEING MFG.CO.LTD DEEPAK FERTILISERS & PETROCHEMICALS STRIDES ARCOLAB VOLTAS LTD MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD APTECH LTD Holding (%) 6.8 6.0 4.9 4.4 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
TOP SECTORS
Health Care Energy Utilities Information Technology Materials Healthcare Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary Financials Industrial 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 3.6% 5.1% 5.2% 6.3% 14.7% 16.5% 29.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
RATIO ANALYSIS
Alchemy High Growth (since inception) Benchmark (since inception)
Parameter
Std. Dev.
24.5%
26.6%
Sharpe
1.09
0.65
49.6%
Beta
0.76
As on 31 January, 2011
Alchemy Leaders
Quest for the Best
Investment Strategy: The strategy aims at generating long-term returns by investing in Large-Cap equities Fund Manager: Mr Chandraprakash Padiyar is a portfolio manager with over 10 years of research and investing experience. He is an MBA and CFA by qualification. He started his career in equity research and analysis at UTI Mutual Fund and later graduated to portfolio manager, managing assets across various equity schemes totaling Rs. 2,500 crores. He has been a portfolio manager with Alchemy since April 2007. Strategy at a glance Category: Equity Diversified Fund Style: Large-cap Growth Type: Open Ended Launch Date: 21st Dec, 2006 Benchmark: S&P CNX Nifty Min investment: Rs. 50 lacs
Portfolio Action: Start of 2011 was an unusually volatile month for the Indian markets with Nifty correcting
by 10.2% led by FIIs selling to the tune of $1.4 bn while domestic institutions buying $131 mn. Indian markets are among very few globally which fell sharply during the month of January infact majority of global markets were up strongly during the month. Events over the past 2-3 months, more on the political front on account of various corruption scandals has led to decision making from the government come to a standstill affecting liquidity in the system thereby affecting sentiment in the markets negatively. 40 companies out of the Nifty have reported their Q3FY11 results till date. On an average reported earnings growth stands at a strong 20%+. 65% of companies have reported better than expected results, 30% have reported inline with estimates and 5% of the companies have reported lower than estimated results. The remaining companies yet to report are also expected to report a profit growth in excess of 20%. We continue to expect corporate earnings growth of 18% for FY11 and between 15-18% growth in FY12. At current nifty levels of 5500, the market is trading at reasonable valuations of 13-14 times FY12 earnings. During the month our portfolios have taken a beating on the back of a large correction in the markets. However, we would like to highlight that our set of companies have reported strong earnings growth of >30% for Q3FY11 till date. We expect our performance to rebound going ahead as we do not see any fundamental reason for a correction and valuation for our portfolio companies have become even more attractive. We have built a portfolio today which we believe can deliver an earnings growth in excess of 20% over the next 2 years and where risk reward is favourable. Overall, we are optimistic on the risk reward for equity investment on a long term basis.
Alchemy Leaders
Quest for the Best
Alchemy Leaders 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08
CAGR: 9.2%
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Alchemy Leaders
Quest for the Best
TOP 10 HOLDINGS
SCRIP Holding (%)
TOP SECTORS
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD SINTEX INDUSTRIES LTD BAJAJ-AUTO LTD CORPORATION BANK MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD ENGINEERS INDIA LTD CROMPTON GREAVES LTD ICICI BANK LTD VOLTAS LTD UNITED PHOSPHORUS LTD
Health Care Healthcare Consumer Staples Energy Information Technology Consumer Discretionary Financials Industrial 0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
4.6
RATIO ANALYSIS
Alchemy Leaders (since inception) Benchmark (since inception)
Parameter
13.9%
Std. Dev.
22.4%
31.5%
7.2%
Sharpe
0.29
0.16
78.9%
Beta
0.62
As on 31 January, 2011
DISCLAIMER
General Risk factors All investment products attract various kinds of risks. Please read the relevant Disclosure Document/ Investment Agreement carefully before investing. General Disclaimers The information and opinions contained in this report/ presentation have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete. Information and opinions contained in the report/ presentation are disseminated for the information of authorized recipients only, and are not to be relied upon as advisory or authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of due diligence and judgement by any recipient. The information and opinions are not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or make any investments. Nothing contained herein, including past performance, shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance. The services related to Mutual funds, Insurance, Real Estate, Art, Commodity etc. may merely be a referral / advisory services in nature. Such third party investment products or services do attract the general and specific risk factors unique to those respective products or services, which would be mentioned by the manufactures of those products in the respective product documentation. The prospective investors in such third party products are advised to read and understand those risk factors & disclaimers, in addition to what has been stated herein. Alchemy Capital Management Pvt. Ltd., its Group or affiliates have not verified and do not take any responsibility for any statements, numbers or claims made, omitted to be made or implied in any documentation, presentations etc. which have been created by the manufacturers of such third party products or services. The client is solely responsible for consulting his/her/its own independent advisors as to the legal, tax, accounting and related matters concerning investments and nothing in this document or in any communication shall constitutes such advice. The client is expected to understand the risk factors associated with investment & act on the information solely on his/her/its own risk. As a condition for providing this information, the client agrees that Alchemy Capital Management Pvt. Ltd., its Group or affiliates makes no representation and shall have no liability in any way arising to them or any other entity for any loss or damage, direct or indirect, arising from the use of this information. This document and its contents are proprietary information of Alchemy Capital Management Pvt. Ltd and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without the written consent.
Edited by: Rupesh Nagda (Ph: +91-22-66171785), Ambrish Jamodkar (Ph: +91-22-66171772) Copy editor: Lucy Bharadwaj Alchemy Capital Management Pvt. Ltd., B-4, Amerchand Mansion, 16 Madame Cama Road, Mumbai 400 001. Ph: +91-22-66171700