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Agenda
A First Look at Inventory Management
Motivation
Agenda
A First Look at Inventory Management
Motivation
What Is Inventory?
Inventory is the stock or store of an item or a resource used by an organization. Different types of inventory Finished Goods (FGI) | Work in Process (WIP) | Raw Material Examples Cash in an ATM/bank Half assembled engines in a car manufacturing plant Phones in a retail store Silicon in a semiconductor manufacturing plant Seats in a plane Advertising slots for a TV broadcaster
Inventory Management Victor Araman
Period Ending Assets Current Assets Cash And Cash Equivalents Short Term Investments
1,199,000
1,103,000
1,826,000
22,000
90,000
Net Receivables
2,288,000
2,348,000
2,020,000
Inventory Inventory
5,731,000 5,731,000
1,079,000
5,897,000 5,897,000
1,103,000
5,486,000 5,486,000
1,144,000
Long Term Investments Property Plant and Equipment Goodwill Intangible Assets Accumulated Amortization Other Assets Deferred Long Term Asset Charges
Total Assets
16,005,000
17,849,000
18,302,000
Importance of Inventory
Importance of Inventory
Inventories represent a major commitment of monetary resources Inventories affect virtually all aspects of a companys daily operations Inventories represent a lethal weapon Example: Dell, Wal-Mart, Zara
WSJ-09-09-04
Inventory Management Victor Araman
Inventory Measures
Average aggregate inventory value: Average of the total value of all items held in inventory Weeks of supply =
Average aggregate inventory value Cost of Goods Sold per week
Cost of Goods Sold per week
Inventory turns = Average aggregate inventory value Some of these measures can be customized for specific settings/industry Retail: sales per sqm of shelf space Restaurant: sales per available seat-hour Media: sales per slot per impression
Inventory Management Victor Araman
Inventory Turns
Common industry benchmark Example (K-Mart: 2002)
Inventory value = 4.825 B $ Cost of Goods Sold = 26.258 B $/year Average time to turn a dollar (cost) to a dollar = 4.825/26.258 year = 0.183 years = 67 days. (Littles law) What is the financial significance of this time? Kmart improved this figure from 88 days in 1998.
Compare: Wal-Mart : 7.54 turns per year K-Mart : 5.44 turns per year
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ABC Analysis
Divides on-hand inventory into 3 classes A class, B class, C class Basis is usually annual $ volume $ volume = Annual demand x Unit cost Policies based on ABC analysis Develop class A suppliers more Give tighter physical control of A items Forecast A items more carefully
A B C
% of Inventory Items
Inventory Management Victor Araman
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(Approximate Ranges)
Inventory Management Victor Araman
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Agenda
A First Look at Inventory Management
Motivation
Inventory Level
Time
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Demand = D units per year Ordering cost = S dollars per order placed Holding cost = H dollars per unit per year Order quantity = Q units
Holding Cost = H Q/2 per year Ordering Cost = S D/Q per year Total Cost = H Q/2 + S D/Q
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H Q/2
S D/Q
Q* / 2
ROP Reorder Point LT Lead Time
Time
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Total Cost
TC(Q )
DS QH Q 2
Optimal Quantity
Q*
Expected Number of Orders D N = Q* Expected Time between orders T = Working Days per year N
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What if?
What if management is concerned by costs of emissions?
What if there are discounts based on the order quantity? What if demand or/and lead times are NOT deterministic?
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Service Level
P(Stockout)
Inventory Level
Q
SS Avg dLT
ROP
dLT
ROP
Avg dLT
SS
Safety Stock
Time
Lead Time Place order
Inventory Management - Victor Araman
Receive order
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Based on available information, the daily demand for CD-ROM drives averages 10 units (normally distributed), with a standard deviation of 1 drive. The lead-time is exactly 5 days. Management wants a 97% service level. What safety stock should be carried? What is the appropriate reorder point?
Agenda
A First Look at Inventory Management
Motivation
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Selling Newspapers
Economic parameters
buy at w = 1 sell at r = 1.5 salvage at s = 0.05
Random demand
a distribution is available (with an average 300 and a standard deviation 100 units)
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The expected profit maximization balances the too much too little costs
Inventory Management Victor Araman
Examples
fashion clothing | toys | computer games | music albums | books, consumer electronics
Inventory Management Victor Araman
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Underage cost per unit Cu is the (opportunity) cost of one unit of lost sales (under ordering)
What if you had ordered one additional unit? Underage cost = Price Cost = r w what if a goodwill cost or penalty cost is incurred in addition to the lost margin? Cu = 0.50
Inventory Management - Victor Araman
CR measures the balance of power between marginal costs of shortage and leftover
how worse or better is too little compared to too much
Probability Distribution Risk of leftover
Avg Dmd
Demand
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Expected Profit
Penalty cost = p = 0 If Q < D : Revenues = r Q ; If Q > D : Revenues = r D ; Salvage value = s (Q D ) Profit = r min{D , Q} + s (Q D )+ w Q
r
x
Sales
s x Leftover
Profit = r min{D , Q} + s (Q D )+ - w Q
Simple manipulations
Mismatch Cost
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Q
80
X
Expected marginal benefit of understocking
70
60 50 40
As more units are ordered the average benefit from ordering one unit decreases (it becomes more likely to be left with inventory) while the average loss of ordering one more unit increases (it becomes less likely to be short in inventory)
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20
10
0 0 800 1600 2400 3200 4000 4800 5600 6400
The quantity
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Risk of leftover
Average Demand
Inventory Management - Victor Araman
Demand
A Normal Distribution
If demand distribution is normal Use Excel
s =100
Q* = Norminv(CR, m , s) = Norminv(0.345,300,100)
CR 0.345
= 260
m =300
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Financial Performance
If seller orders the newsvendor quantity Q*
What should the seller expect in terms of profits ? What about averages sales? How many units will be discounted on average (salvage)? How much money is left on the table? (i.e. What is the fraction of demand unmet?)
Once lost sales are evaluated the rest follow trivially For normal distribution lost sales is known
tables that provide the values of lost sales excel functions that give the exact value of lost sales
Suppose demand can take one of these values D belongs to {0,10, 20,190, 200} Suppose Q=120 What is the average lost sales? If D<=Q : No lost sales = 0 If D = 130, lost sales = D - Q= 10 If D = 140, lost sales = D - Q = 20 Average Lost Sales = 10 x P(D=130) + 20 x P(D=140) + + 80 x P(D=200)
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sD x L(z)
s is the standard deviation (given) z = (Q ED) / sD e.g. z = (260-300)/100 = 0.4 L(z) = normdist(z, 0, 1, 0) z x (1 - normdist(z, 0, 1, 1)) e.g. L(-0.4) = 0.63 and Average Lost Sales = 100 x 0.63 = 63
Inventory Management Victor Araman
Average Profit
Price x Avg Sales + Salvage x Avg Leftover Inv. Cost * Q = (Price Cost) x Avg Sales (Cost Salvage) x Avg Leftover Inv. = (1.5-1)*237-(1-0.06)*23 = $96.88 ~ $97
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Yield Management
Yield Management: term used in many service industries to describe techniques to allocate limited resources, such as airplane seats or hotel rooms, among a variety of customers, such as business or leisure travelers.
By adjusting this allocation a firm can optimize the total revenue or "yield on the investment in capacity Since these techniques are used by firms with extremely perishable goods, or by firms with services that cannot be stored at all, these concepts and tools are often called perishable asset revenue management. American Airlines credits yield management techniques for a revenue increase of $500 million/year and Delta Airlines uses similar systems to generate additional revenues of $300 million per year.
Inventory Management - Victor Araman
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Yield Management
Marriott Hotels credits its yield management system for additional revenues of $100 million per year, with relatively small increases in capacity and costs Broadcasting companies use yield management to determine how much inventory (advertising slots) to sell now to the "upfront market" and how much to reserve and perhaps sell later at a higher price to the "scatter market The core logic is similar to the newsvendor model
Agenda
A First Look at Inventory Management
Motivation
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Profit Manufacturer (w m) Q*
Inventory Management Victor Araman
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Sales
Leftover
See notes for an Excel formulation of this profit under normal demand!
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Key Learnings
Inventory is the result of the imbalance between Supply and Demand It serves as a buffer to
Smooth seasonality Reduce risk/cost of stockouts Alleviate production scheduling Take advantage of economies of scale
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