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Industry Report
We expect favorable industry dynamics over the next several years to provide the foundation for entertainment software
publishers to grow revenues by nearly 10% per year, with the top publishers realizing a much higher rate of earnings growth
during this period. In this report, we analyze the fundamentals of the interactive entertainment industry and detail our criteria and
methodology for identifying its champions.
Wedbush Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision. Please see page 206 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We thank our good friend, Junkwaffle, for the fabulous cover art and for demonstrating that there is
tremendous value to entertainment that is digitally delivered, even though it is intangible and nearly
impossible to trade in at GameStop.
We also thank the folks at GameTrailers.com and especially at GameTrailers TV for giving us many of the
ideas discussed in this report.
Finally, we feel we must call out NeoGAF.com and its members, for challenging virtually everything we say
as being wrong, and for making us re-think many positions over the years.
Since the launch of the Xbox 360 in late 2005, interactive entertainment
software sales have grown by over 60%. Sales of legacy generation console
software declined by 71%, more than offset by growth of “next generation”
software. Even though there will be many new games created for the PS2, we
expect legacy generation software sales to decline to less than $1 billion in
2009, compared with almost $25 billion in overall software sales this year. The
current generation is fully underway, with overall growth in 2009 of 4%
expected in the U.S. and Europe. We define “next generation” as software for the
Nintendo DS and Wii, for the Sony PSP and PS3, and for the Microsoft Xbox 360,
and will refer to this as “current generation” throughout this report. Because console
prices remain relatively high, we expect the transition to continue for several more
years, with the market for interactive entertainment growing at double-digit rates
through 2011. Beyond 2011, we expect revenues from non-traditional sources
(online games, casual games, mobile phone games, downloadable content, and in-
game advertising) to contribute meaningfully, offsetting slowing growth of packaged
goods software sales.
The current generation began without fanfare in 2004. That year, Nintendo
reinvented its handheld Game Boy Advance as a dual-screen device, with a touch
screen allowing the consumer to interact with video game content in a different way.
Few observers appreciated that the Nintendo DS signaled a change in game play
that previewed the company’s plans for its console (the Wii) introduced in 2006. In
early 2005 (December 2004 in Japan), Sony launched the PlayStation Portable
(PSP), intending to capture share in the handheld market from Nintendo. Later that
same year, Microsoft launched the Xbox 360, offering true high definition gaming. In
late 2006, Sony and Nintendo launched the PS3 and the Wii, respectively, and the
current generation was in full gear. Although the last of these launches completed
the beginning of the current generation cycle, they by no means marked the end of
the current cycle. All major software publishers made a distinct effort to extend the
value of the “legacy” system in 2007 and 2008 by continuing to develop games for
the PS2. Perhaps the most successful of these new games were the music-themed
rhythm games, Guitar Hero and Rock Band.
The last video game software cycle began with a dip. Annual industry software
sales, reflecting combined sales of console, handheld and PC games in the U.S. and
Europe, declined by 9% in 2000, followed by growth of 4%, 15%, 12%, and 11% in
2001 – 2004, respectively. The current console cycle began with a similar dip, as
sales declined by 3% overall, with a rebound to 6% growth in 2006. After a relatively
modest beginning, the current cycle became a force, with 25% sales growth in 2007
and 20% growth in 2008. The 2008 figures were dramatically impacted by foreign
currency translation (all of our sales figures are stated in U.S. dollar terms). Two
factors contributed to the robust results in 2007 – 2008: first, while consumers were
slow to adopt current generation technology due to supply constraints, they chose to
continue purchasing legacy generation software while waiting to replace their old
consoles. While last generation software sales declined by 71% between 2005 and
2008, the category still contributed almost $2.5 billion in overall sales (11% of the
total) in 2008, compared to only $550 million (4.2% of sales) for legacy software at a
similar point in the last cycle. The second reason for robust sales growth is the rate
of adoption of the Wii, with non-traditional households buying Wiis and Wii software
Industry Forecast
• We estimate that the interactive entertainment industry generated worldwide
sales of $40 billion in 2007 and $44 billion in 2008. We estimate that the
addressable market opportunity for U.S. software publishers is $23 billion in 2008
(packaged software only) and we expect sales to grow at a nearly double-digit
pace for the next three years. We note that the Japanese market remains
virtually closed to U.S. and European publishers, with only minor inroads made
by Electronic Arts and Take-Two, and do not anticipate significant contribution for
the U.S. and European publishers in the near future.
• We forecast the combined U.S. and European software markets to grow at
a 9% CAGR over the 2009 – 2011 period. Our forecast assumes console
software sales (i.e., Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii) of $17 billion in 2009, growing to
$20 billion in 2010 and to $22 billion in 2011. We expect handheld software sales
(i.e., DS, DSi and PSP) of $4.2 billion in 2009, $4.6 billion in 2010 and $4.8 billion
in 2011. We believe that the top-performing software publishers will capture a
disproportionate share of top-line growth, will deliver operating leverage, and will
grow EPS at a higher rate during this period.
• We expect growth to be driven by higher console penetration rates (particularly of
handheld platforms), with lower “tie ratios” (a tie ratio is the number of software
units sold per hardware console) offset by higher overall game pricing.
• In 2009, we forecast that U.S. interactive entertainment software sales (at $12.2
billion) will still be only around 40% the level of movie box office, rentals and
Hardware Forecast
• Total last generation (PS2, Xbox and GameCube) hardware shipments through
the end of 2008 reached 125 million units in the U.S. and Europe (the
addressable market for U.S. and European publishers). By comparison, 32-/64-
bit (PSOne, N64 and Saturn) shipments in the U.S. and Europe totaled only 93
million units during the analogous 1995 – 2003 period.
• We expect current generation hardware shipments through the end of 2009
to reach 100 million units in the U.S. and Europe. By comparison, shipments
of the last generation consoles in the same regions totaled only 88.5 million units
during the analogous 2000 – 2004 period. This clearly indicates that the current
cycle is far more robust than the last cycle, especially given the relatively high
price points for the three major consoles.
• Even more dramatic is expected penetration of handheld hardware. We
project cumulative DS, DSi and PSP sales in the U.S. and Europe to total 101
million units by year-end 2009, compared to GBA and GBA SP sell through of
only 43 million units in the analogous 2000 – 2004 period.
• By the end of the current cycle, we expect increased console and handheld
penetration rates in every major geographic segment, due to strong
demographics, additional functionality, increased market segmentation, and
much higher marketing spending. Now that Sony has won the high definition
DVD format war, we expect PS3 adoption steadily to increase in correlation with
HDTV household penetration. We believe that Microsoft can maintain its first
mover advantage by continuing to lower prices and by continuing to enhance its
offering on Xbox Live.
• The current generation consoles have increased multimedia functionality, with
high-definition DVD playback on the PS3 and Xbox 360, high definition display
for both, online gaming capability for all three consoles, and access to Internet
content downloads for all three. Ultimately, we expect the current generation of
game machines to appeal to a much wider audience, driving the percentage of
households that own at least one console from 52% during the 128-bit cycle to
60% during the next cycle. Innovations with peripherals such as Rock Band,
Guitar Hero and Wii Fit have converted new households into video game
households, and we expect the trend to continue.
• Our growth forecast assumes that the number of consoles owned by each
household will hold relatively steady, decreasing slightly from 1.40 to 1.38 during
the next cycle. In contrast with the last cycle, we think that the second console of
choice in most households ultimately will be the Nintendo Wii, driven by
innovative game play and a deep library of proprietary content. Because of its
low price, we expect a large number of dual console households to buy the Wii
first. We do not expect as many households to purchase both a PS3 and Xbox
Software Forecast
• One of the primary drivers of Sony’s success during the last two cycles was its
ability to provide a greater quantity of high-quality titles than its competitors. In
addition to a large first party library (Gran Turismo, SOCOM Navy Seals, The
Getaway, God of War, Ratchet and Clank and Jak), the company was successful
in securing enormous third-party software development support for the PS2. The
three most successful single platform titles of all time, Take-Two’s Grand Theft
Auto III, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, and Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
debuted exclusively on PS2 and have so far sold over 42 million units on the PS2
alone, each selling approximately twice as many units as the best selling Xbox
and GameCube games. The Xbox was effectively discontinued in 2006 with the
launch of the Xbox 360, while demand for PS2 hardware and software remained
strong in both 2006 and 2007. Because Sony sold over 18 million PS2s in 2006
and 2007, it was able to maintain the price of the PS2 at $129 through March of
this year. We do not expect meaningful contribution from PS2 software sales
after 2009, but note that catalog sales of PS2 games may comprise 2 – 3% of
overall software sales in the future.
• We do not expect Sony to secure significant third party exclusivity for PS3 titles
over the next few years, and expect the company to continue to focus its internal
development efforts on blockbuster games. At the same time, we think that the
company will maintain solid overall software market share by virtue of the
growing installed base for the PS3 and PSP, offset by continued PS2 software
sales declines. For 2009, we expect software sales for Sony consoles to account
for 31% of all game software sold worldwide.
Figure 1—Top 20 Entertainment Software Publishers - U.S. Retail Sales 2007 – 2008 ($ millions)
2007 2008
Rank Publisher U.S. Sales Market Share Rank Publisher U.S. Sales Market Share
1 Electronic Arts $ 1,710 18% 1 Electronic Arts $ 2,356 20%
2 Activision (Corp) $ 1,583 17% 2 Activision Blizzard (Corp) $ 1,954 17%
3 Nintendo of America $ 1,382 15% 3 Nintendo of America $ 1,943 17%
4 Microsoft (Corp) $ 653 7% 4 Take 2 Interactive (Corp) $ 737 6%
5 Ubisoft $ 578 6% 5 Ubisoft $ 631 5%
6 THQ (Corp) $ 473 5% 6 THQ (Corp) $ 443 4%
7 Take 2 Interactive (Corp) $ 468 5% 7 Microsoft (Corp) $ 417 4%
8 Sony (Corp) $ 417 4% 8 Sony (Corp) $ 394 3%
9 Vivendi (Corp) $ 260 3% 9 Lucasarts $ 355 3%
10 Sega of America $ 221 2% 10 Sega of America $ 340 3%
11 Disney Interactive Studios $ 193 2% 11 Konami Digital Ent. $ 265 2%
12 Lucasarts $ 167 2% 12 Disney Interactive Studios $ 218 2%
13 Namco Bandai Games of America ( $ 154 2% 13 Namco Bandai Games of America ( $ 207 2%
14 Konami Digital Ent. $ 150 2% 14 Midway $ 157 1%
15 Capcom USA $ 124 1% 15 Square Enix Inc (Corp) $ 132 1%
16 Midway $ 102 1% 16 Bethesda Softworks $ 123 1%
17 Eidos Interactive (Corp) $ 92 1% 17 Capcom USA $ 103 1%
18 Atari $ 91 1% 18 Warner Interactive $ 94 1%
19 Square Enix Inc (Corp) $ 81 1% 19 Atari $ 85 1%
20 Majesco $ 65 1% 20 Majesco $ 83 1%
All Others $ 523 6% All Others $ 638 5%
$ 9,488 100% $ 11,675 100%
Source: The NPD Group/Retail Track and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates.
Distributors
Distribution refers to the warehousing, handling, and transporting of games from a
publisher to a retailer’s shelves. Each major publisher distributes its own games to
the largest retailers, and many distribute their own games to all retailers. Some
publishers also use their own distribution assets to distribute games for other smaller
publishers–referred to as “third-party” distribution. The major hardware companies
also distribute the bulk of their software directly to retailers. National distributors,
such as Ingram Micro and Handelman, provide third-party distribution services to the
smaller publishers and also provide the larger publishers with access to small “mom
& pop” retail outlets. The industry trend this decade has moved away from third-party
distribution as publishers seek to capture a greater portion of the software value
chain. We estimate that third-party distribution declined from approximately 50% of
the retail market to less than 15% of the retail market over the last 10 years. We
estimate that distribution accounts for approximately 5 – 10% of the retail price of a
video game, whether captured internally by a publisher or paid to a third-party
distributor.
It is important to distinguish “distribution” from “co-publishing”. In the former case,
the distributor arranges for the placement of a publisher’s product in a particular
territory; in the latter, the “co-publisher” places its name on the packaging as if the
game were created by it, and is responsible not only for distributing the game but for
all associated marketing expenses. Co-publishers typically receive close to 30% of
Figure 2—U.S. Retailer Console and PC Software Market Share 2007 – 2008
2007 2008
Rank Video Game Retailer Share Rank Video Game Retailer Share
1 GameStop 25% 1 GameStop 25%
2 Wal-Mart 24% 2 Wal-Mart 25%
3 Best Buy 14% 3 Target Stores 13%
4 Target Stores 14% 4 Best Buy 13%
5 Toys R Us 4% 5 Toys R Us 4%
6 Circuit City 3% 6 Circuit City 2%
7 Amazon.com 1% 7 Movie Gallery 2%
8 K Mart/Sears 1% 8 Blockbuster 2%
9 Movie Gallery 1% 9 Amazon.com 1%
10 Blockbuster 1% 10 K Mart/Sears 1%
All Other 12% All Other 12%
Japan
($ mil) Europe
North America
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
On average, the U.S. software publishers generate approximately 60% of their sales
from the North American market and 40% from the European market, with European
publisher Ubisoft generating approximately 45% of sales from the U.S. market and
55% from Europe. Japanese publisher Nintendo (the only Japanese company we
cover) derives approximately 40% of its software sales from the U.S. and 40% from
Europe, with the balance from Japan. European sales comprise approximately 13%
PC games, 87% console and handheld games, down from a 25-75 split just three
years ago; we expect further degradation of the PC game component of European
sales over the next three years, with PC sales ultimately comprising less than 10% of
overall packaged software sales. It is rare for a U.S. or European publisher to realize
more than 5% of revenues from Japan; that market is generally closed to gai-jin
content. In 2006, we estimate that industry leader Electronic Arts derived
approximately 5% of total sales from Japan, with strong sales of FIFA World Cup
Soccer, and we think that performance was a high water mark for the company. We
think that overall Japanese sales for U.S. and European publishers declined to less
than 3% of overall sales in 2007 and to around 2% in 2008. Japan has been critical
to the overall growth and success of the interactive entertainment industry because it
is the source of the majority of console hardware and some of the industry’s best
development talent. Notwithstanding Japan’s overall importance to the market, we do
not expect U.S. or European software publishers to achieve significant market
penetration in Japan over the next several years, at least not until a foreign publisher
acquires a going concern in Japan. We believe structural and cultural barriers in the
Japanese market will preclude any U.S. or European publisher from generating
significant sales in that market in the near term. We believe that the addressable
market for U.S. and European publishers for the next several years will be limited to
the U.S. and European markets.
Europe PC Software
Europe Console Software
($ mil) N.A. PC Software
N.A. Console Software
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
$20
$18 2003 2004 2005
Age Range %
under 18 25%
Female
18-49 49% 40%
50 and older 26%
Male
Total 100% 60%
Average Age 35
Source: Entertainment Software Association
Video games are played primarily on three major hardware platforms: home
consoles, handheld gaming devices, and PCs, with hybrid devices such as cell
phones and iPod Touch units beginning to generate significant interest and drive
additional revenues. Home consoles capture the greatest share of the global
interactive entertainment market. In 2008, we estimate that approximately 56% of all
packaged video games on a unit basis were console games. We estimate that video
games sold for the handheld and PC platforms accounted for roughly 30% and 13%
of the market, respectively. Over the last five years, the console market has declined
only slightly from a 61% share, and the handheld market has grown from a 15%
share, while PC games have declined in market share from 24%. Over the next five
years, we expect console games to capture roughly 70% of all software sales, with
handhelds capturing around 20% and PCs capturing 10%.
Figure 7—2008 Video Game Software Sales Market Share by Platform Type
As Figure 7 illustrates, dollar sales by platform vary widely across the three primary
geographic markets. Although the home console is the largest platform within all
three primary markets, the degree of dominance of home consoles varies widely. In
Europe, while home console software sales are strong, the market for PC software
remains relatively robust, and handheld software has just begun to capture market
share. We believe that this is due to slow console adoption in Eastern Europe and
Scandinavia, with Western European adoption rates similar to those in the U.S.
Meanwhile in Japan, home console software has lost market share, while sales of
handheld software have grown dramatically. PC software barely registers in Japan,
at 7% of total sales, and the U.S. has followed Japan’s lead with a precipitous
decline in PC game software sales over the last several years as a percentage of
overall sales. We think that Japan is the trendsetter for adoption of handheld
software, and while we expect that category to grow in North America and Europe,
we think that European adoption rates for console software and pricing on console
software will allow that category to dominate throughout this cycle.
Figure 8 illustrates the most recent console cycles and the dominant consoles within
those cycles (note that the “Units Sold” includes U.S. sales over each console’s life
cycle, not just the initial five-year period).
Each prior console cycle in the U.S. resulted in increasing sales and a larger installed
base. As discussed later in this report, we think that the term “console cycle” is a
misnomer, insofar as it implies that this is a cyclical business. We estimate that
console software sales (excluding handheld software) in the U.S. and Europe
combined will rise from approximately $1.3 billion in 1990 to over $22 billion in 2011,
resulting in a compound annual growth rate of almost 15%.
In the 1995 and 2000 console cycles, demand and price points for both hardware
and software were relatively high, with hardware prices dropping in the second full
year of each cycle. In the latest cycle (which began in 2005), price points started at
unprecedented levels, with the Xbox 360 priced 33% higher than the Xbox and the
PS3 priced at 200% of the PS2’s introductory price. In contrast to earlier cycles,
hardware pricing held for quite a while, with the Xbox 360 remaining at $399 until mid
2007, then cut by only $50, or 12% (in contrast to a 33% price cut six months after
the Xbox launched). Microsoft cut price another $50 in mid-2008. The PS3 price
was cut to $399 in mid-2007 as well, but has remained there as of this writing (see
figure 23 for a console price history). In contrast to other cycles, Sony and Microsoft
(mil)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
128-bit Next-
20 32/64-bit Gen
16-bit
10
8-bit
-
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
E
09
11
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
The one- to two-year period of overlapping hardware cycles is called the “console
transition” period. Figure 9 shows console unit sales during the last four console
25
20
(mil units)
15
Next-Gen
10
128-bit
5 32/64-bit
16-bit
8-bit
-
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009E 2011E
Historically, console transitions have been difficult for software publishers because
consumers have tended to slow their purchases of existing hardware and software
while waiting for the new consoles to launch. This was particularly evident and
painful for software publishers in the transition from 16-bit systems to 32-/64-bit
systems in 1995. That year, console and handheld software sales in the U.S. and
Europe declined 35% to $2.3 billion from $3.6 billion the prior year. We believe that
a key contributing factor to this decline in software sales was the level of support
given to the PlayStation launch, with most U.S. and European publishers developing
an inordinate number of titles for the new platform. The U.S. and European
publishers learned very little from their experience in 1995, and again rushed to
support the 128-bit hardware launch in 2000. Again, software sales in the U.S. and
Europe declined significantly from the prior year. Sales of console and handheld
software dropped from $7.2 billion in 1999 to just under $6.6 billion in 2000, a decline
of 9%. Importantly, the year 2000 marked the slowing of a phenomenon experienced
in 1995, where current generation (i.e., 16-bit) software sales declined by almost
50% (from over $2.5 billion to under $1.3 billion). In 2000, current generation (i.e.,
32/64-bit) software sales decreased 21%, from $6.0 billion to $4.8 billion. It appears
that this trend began to reverse in 2005, with current generation software sales down
only 3%, and the modest decline continued in 2006 with only a 13% decline. The
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
($ millions)
$8,000
Nexgen
128 Bit
$6,000 32/64 Bit
$4,000
$2,000
$-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
128-BIT CONSOLES
As in prior console cycles, the 128-bit cycle did not generate sufficient software sales
to support three successful consoles, with Sony’s PS2, Nintendo’s GameCube, and
Microsoft’s Xbox all clamoring for market share. While most industry observers have
generally declared Sony’s and Microsoft’s efforts successful, declaring Nintendo’s a
failure, we disagree. In our view, success should be measured by profitability, and
based upon that metric, only Sony was wildly successful. It is important to note that
Microsoft lost billions of dollars garnering its 18% hardware market share (and 20%
software market share) during the 128-bit cycle, while Nintendo was generally
profitable throughout with only 17% market share. The dominant console of the 128-
bit cycle was the PS2, garnering approximately 65% of worldwide 128-bit hardware
unit sales through 2006 and over 67% software market share. Xbox and GameCube
production ceased in 2006, giving Sony an opportunity to gain share in a declining
market for current generation software sales.
Although PS2 sales in the U.S. started slowly in 2000, the sheer volume of titles
available for the PS2 (which was backward compatible and allowed the playing of a
large number of PlayStation One games) gave the console a huge first-mover
advantage and made it the most popular choice among 128-bit machines. We
believe that Nintendo’s software offering allowed it to capture a dominant market
share among young gamers, keeping the company close to Microsoft in the
worldwide hardware rankings. Although much was written about Nintendo’s third
place position in the last console cycle, pundits frequently overlook the company’s
120
100
PlayStation
GB Advance/SP
80
DS/DSi
(million units)
PSP
PlayStation2/PS2
60
Xbox
GameCube
40 PS3
Xbox 360
Wii
20
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
(million units) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
PlayStation 52 57 61 62 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64
GB Advance/SP - 8 17 30 43 51 57 59 60 60 60 60
DS/DSi - - - - 1 6 15 33 54 70 84 98
PSP - - - - - 6 11 18 26 35 41 47
Handheld Subtotal - 8 17 30 44 62 83 110 139 164 185 205
PlayStation2/PS2 2 12 27 41 51 63 72 80 85 88 90 90
Xbox - 1 6 11 18 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
GameCube - 1 5 9 13 16 17 17 17 17 17 17
Current Gen Subtotal 2 15 37 61 82 101 112 120 125 128 130 130
PS3 - - - - - - 1 6 13 22 32 43
Xbox 360 - - - - - 1 8 14 22 29 36 43
Wii - - - - - - 2 13 32 49 65 79
Next-Gen Subtotal - - - - - 1 11 34 67 100 133 164
140
120
PlayStation
100 GB Advance/SP
DS/DSi
(million units)
80 PSP
PlayStation2/PS2
Xbox
60
GameCube
PS3
40 Xbox 360
Wii
20
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
(million units) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
PlayStation 72 78 82 83 85 85 86 86 86 86 86 86
GB Advance/SP - 12 25 42 58 67 73 76 76 76 76 76
DS/DSi - - - - 2 10 27 52 77 96 114 130
PSP - - - - 2 9 17 27 38 51 60 69
Handheld Subtotal - 12 25 42 61 86 117 155 191 223 250 275
PS3 - - - - - - 1 8 16 26 37 49
Xbox 360 - - - - - 1 8 15 23 30 37 44
Wii - - - - - - 3 18 39 59 77 93
Next-Gen Subtotal - - - - - 1 12 40 78 115 151 186
Sony PlayStation 2
Sony’s PlayStation 2 (PS2) hit store shelves in Japan in March 2000. Retailing for
approximately $370, Sony sold nearly one million units at the Japanese launch. Sony
followed with a U.S. launch of 500,000 units, retailing for $299 each, in October
2000. The company had originally anticipated shipping one million units for the U.S.
launch, but due to microprocessor production problems, it scaled back initial
shipments into the U.S. The company launched the PS2 in Europe in November
2000, also with a reduced initial shipment. Sony’s lowered shipments angered
customers, publishers, and retailers in the U.S. and Europe, who were counting on
much higher volumes for the holiday season. In particular, the U.S. and European
publishers were hard hit by the low initial shipment, as many devoted an
extraordinarily large portion of their development budgets to launch titles. The PS2
represented a significant technological advance over its predecessor, the PSOne, as
it was capable of several multimedia functions, including DVD playback, CD audio,
(mil) Japan
20
Europe
18 U.S.
16
14
12
10
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Source: Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates.
Until late in 2004, Sony’s strategy for competing in the console business was to
generate profits from software royalties (approximately $8 per unit on average for the
PS2, higher now for the PS3). Consoles were sold at a small profit, allowing Sony to
gain market share and receive more software royalties once the installed base of
console owners continued to purchase software. In late 2004, the company was able
to redesign the PS2 and cut its manufacturing costs dramatically, while maintaining
the price of the device at $149. We estimate that for the first time, Sony was able to
generate substantial profits from hardware sales, with $600 – 700 million in gross
profits in 2005. When the company cut the price of the console to $129 in 2006, its
gross profits from hardware likely declined to around $500 million. This compares to
our estimate of $1.5 – 1.6 billion in gross profit from software royalties.
We think that Sony learned a difficult lesson from its experience with the Betamax
video recorder in the early 1980s—Sony’s product was technologically superior to
(mil)
7
Japan
6 Europe
U.S.
5
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
(mil)
8
Japan
7
Europe
6 U.S.
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates.
Xbox 360
Microsoft released its entry this generation, the Xbox 360, in November 2005, with a
simultaneous worldwide launch. The console’s technical specifications were a huge
advance in graphics capability: it has three symmetrical core CPUs running at 3.2
GHz each (each over 4x faster than the Xbox CPU); a custom ATI graphics
processor that allows 500 million polygons per second (faster than the then state-of-
the-art PC graphics process that allowed 380 million polygons, and 4x greater than
the original Xbox); 512 Mb of RAM (8x the current Xbox); and some backward
compatibility. The device utilizes a DVD-ROM drive, with the now defunct HD-DVD
drive as a separate accessory. The Xbox 360 was released with a deep slate of
“launch” titles (available at or near the launch date), with a handful of exclusive titles
developed by Microsoft Game Studios and a few third party publishers.
The Xbox 360 sold out from the day of launch through early April 2006. In part,
the sell out was attributable to incredible demand for the console, and in part
(mil)
Japan
Europe
10
U.S.
-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
PS3
Sony released its current generation console, the PlayStation 3 (PS3), in
November 2006, with a simultaneous worldwide launch. The company surprised
many with a launch price of $599.99 for the 60 Gb SKU, with a 20 Gb model (since
discontinued) offered for $499.99. Like the Xbox 360, the technical specifications of
the PS3 were mind-numbing. The device has a 3.2 GHz “cell” microprocessor
(mil)
14 Japan
Europe
12
U.S.
10
-
2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Wii
Nintendo launched its current generation console, the Wii, in November 2006,
Although observers were initially skeptical, consumers embraced the device in
record numbers, and enthusiasm has continued to build. The Wii uses a DVD-
ROM drive, is backward compatible with all content originally released for the N64,
the Super NES, and the original Nintendo Entertainment system (through software
downloads), plays all GameCube games, and is significantly more powerful than the
GameCube, but not as powerful or feature-packed as the PS3 or Xbox 360. The Wii
launched at a lower price than its competitors, at $249.99 (including a game), and
pricing has held for the 30 months since launch.
Nintendo chose to compete with the others through innovations in game play,
devising a motion-sensitive controller (the “Wii-mote”) that allows the player to
interact directly with characters and items on the screen (much like a mouse). The
company has a competitive advantage based upon its considerable library of high
quality content, and the early success of the Wii encouraged third party development.
In our opinion, the Wii has been successful due to two factors: first, it is priced
significantly lower than its competitors’ products; and second, the company’s
redesign of the console’s controller, a cordless remote-control-like device designed
to be used with only one hand, allows for a unique style of game play that is not
available from the competition. A small sensor placed near the monitor, along with an
accelerometer chip and infrared pointer inside the controller, allow tracking of its
position and orientation. This allows the player to manipulate the action on screen by
physically moving the controller itself. For example, in Red Steel (a launch title from
Ubisoft), players are able to wield an in-game sword by actually swinging the
controller from side to side. Wii golf games allow players to swing an imaginary club,
race cars are steered with a turn of the wrist, and guns are aimed in shooter games
by pointing the controller at the target.
Coincident with the publication of this report, Nintendo is launching Wii Motion Plus,
an accessory for the Wii-mote that adds a second accelerometer to the motion-
sensitive control scheme. With the Wii-mote and Wii Motion Plus, golfers who tend
(mil)
Japan
Europe
20 U.S.
15
10
-
2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
(mil)
Japan
18
Europe
16 U.S.
14
12
10
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
DS
Nintendo released the Nintendo DS (for dual-screen), in November 2004, and the
device sold through extremely well. The DS was a departure from the GBA SP,
offering two 3” front-lit screens in a clamshell design, with the lower screen activated
by touch. The DS permitted developers to expand the game play experience for
(mil)
30
Japan
25 Europe
U.S.
20
15
10
-
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Sony PSP
Sony launched its first portable gaming device, the PlayStation Portable (PSP) in late
2004 in Japan, followed by a March 2005 launch in the U.S., and a European launch
in September 2005. The PSP is a 170 x 69mm device (approximately 6.7” x 2.7”)
with a 4.3” diagonal LCD screen. The medium for game play is a UMD (universal
media disc). The name UMD reflected Sony’s intentions to create a device that would
play more than just video games. We also think it is important to note that the UMD
is a 1.8 gigabyte capacity, 60mm disc, remarkably similar in size to the Sony
MiniDisc, the company’s failed attempt to capture share of the music market. To
date, there are over 450 video game titles available and hundreds of movies
(mil)
14 Japan
Europe
12
U.S.
10
-
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
Mobile Gaming
Nokia introduced its hybrid cell phone/video game device in late 2003, and the
device failed miserably. Tiger Telematics launched its hybrid GPS/video game
device, the Gizmondo, late in 2005 with similar results. These devices offered hybrid
functions, and attempted to compete with cell phones, which had superior download
capability and a deep slate of content available through cell service providers and
dedicated mobile gaming portals.
For the last several years, we have been skeptical about the potential for mobile
downloads. Initially (back in 2002), mobile devices were bandwidth, storage and
battery constrained. As bandwidth has improved with 3G networks and flash memory
has come down in price, there is significantly greater potential for mobile downloads
today than there was even three years ago. We estimate that the U.S. market for
mobile downloads was under $1 billion in the U.S. in 2006, including downloads of
ring tones, wallpaper, greeting cards and games, but not including music. With the
advent of smart phones (mobile devices with wireless access, built-in Internet
browsers and relatively large storage capacity of 1 Gb or more), the potential for
mobile downloads has increased exponentially. We estimate that the market for
downloads has tripled to $3 billion in 2008, and will continue to grow this year.
However, we remain skeptical about the long-term growth potential for this market.
Game downloads represent no more than two-thirds of the mobile download market.
We note that industry leader EA Mobile generated estimated revenues of $180
million in 2008, largely due to strong sales of mobile games offered on the iPhone.
At an estimated ASP of $4 per game, EA Mobile’s revenues equate to approximately
45 million game downloads, or over half the level of unit sales for all other
portable/handheld game devices in the U.S. in 2008 (the total was 79.5 million units
sold). If our estimate of $2 billion for the total mobile game download market is close,
consumers are currently downloading over 500 million games annually, and EA
Mobile has a 9% market share. We think that EA Mobile may grow its market share
Sony PS2
O c t- 0 0 Launched at $299
M a y-0 2 C u t to $ 1 9 9
M a y-0 3 C u t to $ 1 7 9
M a y-0 4 C u t to $ 1 4 9
N o v -0 4 P S 2 S lim in t r o d u c e d
A p r-0 6 C u t to $ 1 2 9
A p r-0 9 C u t to $ 9 9
N in te n d o G B A - N o L o n g e r In P r o d u c tio n
J u n -0 1 L a u n c h e d a t $ 9 9
M a r - 0 3 C u t t o $ 7 9 , G B A S P in t r o d u c e d a t $ 9 9
S e p -0 4 G B A C u t to $ 5 9 , G B A S P C u t to $ 7 9
M ic r o s o ft X b o x - N o L o n g e r In P r o d u c tio n
N o v -0 1 Launched at $299
M a y-0 2 C u t to $ 1 9 9
M a y-0 3 C u t to $ 1 7 9
M a r-0 4 C u t to $ 1 4 9
N in te n d o G a m e C u b e - N o L o n g e r In P r o d u c tio n
N o v -0 1 L a u n c h e d a t $ 1 9 9
M a y -0 2 C u t to $ 1 4 9
S e p -0 3 C u t to $ 9 9
N in te n d o D S
N o v -0 4 L a u n c h e d a t $ 1 4 9
A u g -0 5 C u t to $ 1 2 9
J u n - 0 6 D S L it e in t r o d u c e d
A p r - 0 9 D S i in t r o d u c e d $ 1 6 9
Sony PSP
M a r-0 5 Launched at $249
M a r-0 6 C u t to $ 1 9 9
A p r-0 7 C u t to $ 1 6 9
S e p -0 7 P S P S lim in t r o d u c e d
M ic r o s o ft Xbox 360
N o v -0 5 L a u n c h e d a t $ 2 9 9 (C o re )/3 9 9 (P ro 2 0 G b )
M a y-0 7 N e w X b o x 3 6 0 E lit e ( 1 2 0 G b ) a t $ 4 7 9
A u g -0 7 C u t t o $ 2 7 9 C o r e , $ 3 4 9 P r e m iu m , $ 4 4 9 E lit e
O c t- 0 7 L a u n c h e d A rc a d e a t $ 2 7 9
J u l- 0 8 C u t t o $ 2 9 9 P r o , t o la u n c h n e w P r o w / 6 0 G b a t $ 3 4 9
S e p -0 8 C u t to $ 2 9 9 P ro w / 6 0 G b fro m $ 3 4 9 , A rc a d e to $ 1 9 9 fro m $ 2 7 9 ,
Sony PS3
N o v -0 6 L a u n c h e d a t $ 4 9 9 (2 0 G b )/5 9 9 (6 0 G b )
J u l- 0 7 C u t t o $ 4 9 9 f o r 6 0 G b , in t r o d u c e 8 0 G b a t $ 5 9 9
O c t- 0 7 C u t t o $ 4 9 9 f o r 8 0 G b , in t r o d u c e 4 0 G b a t $ 3 9 9
A u g -0 8 C u t t o $ 3 9 9 f o r 8 0 G b , in t r o d u c e 1 6 0 G b a t $ 4 9 9
N in te n d o W ii
N o v -0 6 L a u n c h e d a t $ 2 4 9
THE NEW, DIGITAL PSP IS NOT QUITE DEAD, YET, (OR IS IT?)
For its first few years of existence, the media was fixated on the “battle” for
portable dominance between the Sony PSP and the Nintendo DS. Now, it’s
fixated on the “battle” between the iPod Touch and the PSP. The phenomenal
performance of the DS made the PSP’s performance appear poor, although the PSP
actually performed quite well. By the end of its fourth full year, the PSP’s installed
base reached approximately 40 million units, hardly a disappointment. With the
introduction of the iPhone and the iPod Touch and the availability of games through
Apples App Store, the media has shifted its focus in the handheld wars to Apple, and
has pronounced the PSP dead, once again.
Sony’s response is the introduction of the PSP Go, a download only device with
16Gb of internal flash memory, with a slot for a Sony Memory Stick to allow for
additional storage. The PSP Go is a full-featured multi-media device, with the ability
to download music, movies, television shows, and, of course, games. It is not
significantly different in function from its predecessor, the PSP 3000, but differs in
that it does not have a disc drive and will not play UMD-based games or movies.
Sony’s PSP software sales have been lagging, and the PSP Go appears to us to
address that problem by encouraging the download of other forms of entertainment.
PSP software sales were over $1.3 billion in 2006, but sales growth has stalled, with
only $1.7 billion in 2008 sales. Year to date, U.S. PSP software sales (through May)
are down 37%, suggesting that consumers are not carrying the device as a primary
gaming platform. We believe that Sony introduced the PSP Go to reinvigorate sales,
and we think that Sony is hopeful that the multi-function PSP Go will replace iPods
for many consumers.
It is true that Sony’s vision of the PSP as a multimedia device has yet to come true.
Sales of UMD movies were quite disappointing, with many studios withdrawing
support for films in the UMD format. Similarly, the evolution of Sony’s music
download service has been quite slow, and consumers have as yet to embrace the
memory stick as a storage medium.
The PSP’s performance has been disappointing in the context of comparison to the
DS. We expect PSP Go sales to be somewhat constrained at its $249.99 price point
(compared to the PSP 3000’s price of $169.99), but expect sales to grow in inverse
proportion to the price point. Once the PSP Go is priced below $150, we think that
Sony may see a rebound in overall portable hardware and software sales.
Average
Consoles
Peak Households Owned
Installed U.S. Households Consoles/ that Own (console
Cycle Period Console Cycle Base (mil) (mil) Household Consoles owners)
1985-90 8-Bit 36 89 0.41 31% 1.32
1989-95 16-Bit 38 93 0.41 33% 1.24
1994-00 32/64 Bit 50 98 0.51 38% 1.35
1999-06 128 Bit 76 110 0.69 50% 1.38
2005-11 Next-Gen 103 125 0.82 55% 1.50
U . S . H ard w are U n its (m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
P l ayS tatio n 0.7 0.0 0.0 - - - - -
N 64 - - - - - - - -
P l ayS tatio n 2 4.6 5.5 4.7 4.0 2.5 1.3 0.7 -
PS3 - - 0.7 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.8 5.5
G am eC u b e 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 - - -
W ii - - 1.1 6.3 10.2 9.5 8.0 7.0
Xbox 4.0 2.2 0.4 - - - - -
X b o x 360 - 0.6 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.0
Al l O th er 0.5 - - - - - - -
T o tal H o m e C o n so le 12.1 10.1 11.6 17.6 21.0 19.7 17.8 16.5
G ro w th (% ) -18% -17% 15% 52% 19% -6% -10% -7%
T o tal H ard w are 20.5 20.7 23.2 31.1 34.8 32.2 28.6 26.7
G ro w th (% ) -9% 1% 12% 34% 12% -7% -11% -7%
E u ro p e H ard w are U n its (m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
P l ayS tatio n 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
P l ayS tatio n 2 5.8 6.7 4.4 3.8 2.8 1.4 1.0 0.5
PS3 - - - 2.8 3.5 4.5 5.0 5.5
G am eC u b e 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 - - - -
W ii - - 1.0 4.8 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.0
Xbox 2.7 1.6 0.2 - - - - -
X b o x 360 - 0.3 3.1 1.9 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.5
Al l O th er - - - - - - - -
T o tal H o m e C o n so le 10.8 10.1 9.3 13.5 17.7 16.4 16.5 15.5
G ro w th (% ) -9% -6% -8% 45% 31% -7% 1% -6%
T o tal H ard w are 16.7 18.0 18.9 27.0 32.8 28.9 26.5 25.0
G ro w th (% ) -4% 8% 5% 43% 21% -12% -8% -6%
Japan Hardware Units (mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation - - - - - - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.5 - - -
PS3 - - 0.4 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0
GameCube 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 - - - -
Wii - - 0.8 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.5
Xbox 0.2 0.1 - - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
All Other - - - - - - - -
Total Home Console 4.2 2.9 2.9 6.0 4.7 4.2 3.4 2.7
Growth (%) 0% -31% -1% 108% -22% -10% -19% -21%
Total Hardware 9.3 9.7 13.2 16.5 12.1 11.1 9.4 7.7
Growth (%) 9% 5% 36% 24% -26% -9% -15% -18%
Worldwide Hardware Units (mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 13.4 14.3 10.5 8.6 5.8 2.7 1.7 0.5
PS3 - - 1.1 6.6 8.0 10.2 11.0 12.0
GameCube 4.9 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 - - -
Wii - - 2.9 14.8 21.4 20.1 18.0 15.5
Xbox 6.9 3.9 0.6 - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 1.0 7.2 6.8 8.1 7.3 7.0 6.7
All Other 0.5 - - - - - - -
Total Home Console 27.1 23.1 23.7 37.1 43.4 40.3 37.7 34.7
Growth (%) -12% -15% 3% 56% 17% -7% -6% -8%
Total Hardware 46.5 48.4 55.4 74.5 79.7 72.2 64.5 59.4
Growth (%) -4% 4% 14% 35% 7% -9% -11% -8%
U.S. Hardware Sales ($mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 36 2 1 - - - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 726 823 628 519 327 129 55 -
PS3 - - 396 1,286 1,482 1,501 1,195 1,095
GameCube 228 163 73 18 1 - - -
Wii - - 269 1,558 2,550 2,176 1,432 903
Xbox 612 344 68 - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 231 1,512 1,737 1,421 1,145 856 596
All Other 20 - - - - - - -
Total Home Console $1,622 $1,565 $2,947 $5,118 $5,781 $4,950 $3,538 $2,594
Growth (%) -27% -4% 88% 74% 13% -14% -29% -27%
Total Hardware $2,416 $3,174 $4,578 $7,041 $7,806 $6,813 $4,856 $3,603
Growth (%) -18% 31% 44% 54% 11% -13% -29% -26%
Europe Hardware Sales ($mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 34 20 10 5 5 - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 1,154 1,199 656 490 361 139 49 25
PS3 - - - 1,960 1,922 1,796 1,495 1,095
GameCube 158 109 32 7 - - - -
Wii - - 340 1,344 2,482 1,992 1,592 1,043
Xbox 456 238 30 - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 120 1,237 720 987 623 498 373
All Other - - - - - - - -
Total Home Console $1,803 $1,686 $2,304 $4,526 $5,756 $4,549 $3,634 $2,535
Growth (%) -27% -6% 37% 96% 27% -21% -20% -30%
Total Hardware $2,327 $2,824 $3,605 $6,350 $7,923 $6,411 $4,824 $3,475
Growth (%) -24% 21% 28% 76% 25% -19% -25% -28%
U.S. and Europe Sales $4,743 $5,999 $8,183 $13,391 $15,729 $13,224 $9,680 $7,078
Growth (%) -21% 26% 36% 64% 17% -16% -27% -27%
Japan Hardware Sales ($mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation - - - - - - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 585 317 140 40 23 - - -
PS3 - - 243 706 491 559 359 199
GameCube 119 59 6 1 - - - -
Wii - - 247 990 662 517 298 149
Xbox 36 15 - - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 31 68 94 105 55 45 35
All Other - - - - - - - -
Total Home Console $740 $423 $703 $1,830 $1,280 $1,131 $702 $383
Growth (%) -14% -43% 66% 160% -30% -12% -38% -45%
Total Hardware $1,577 $1,491 $2,159 $3,218 $2,167 $1,811 $1,176 $703
Growth (%) 29% -5% 45% 49% -33% -16% -35% -40%
Worldwide Hardware Sales ($mil) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 70 22 10 5 5 - - -
N64 - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 2,465 2,340 1,424 1,049 711 267 104 25
PS3 - - 639 3,951 3,894 3,855 3,049 2,388
GameCube 505 332 110 25 1 - - -
Wii - - 856 3,892 5,694 4,685 3,322 2,095
Xbox 1,104 598 98 - - - - -
Xbox 360 - 383 2,817 2,552 2,513 1,823 1,398 1,004
All Other 20 - - - - - - -
Total Home Console $4,165 $3,674 $5,953 $11,475 $12,818 $10,630 $7,874 $5,511
Growth (%) -25% -12% 62% 93% 12% -17% -26% -30%
Total Hardware $6,320 $7,489 $10,342 $16,609 $17,896 $15,035 $10,856 $7,781
Growth (%) -13% 18% 38% 61% 8% -16% -28% -28%
4,000
3,409
3,247
3,144
3,000 2,799
2,429 2,483
2,380
2,258
($ mil)
1,969 1,984
2,000 1,860
1,696
1,458 1,500 1,438 1,350
1,111
953 979
1,000 818
701 678 658 638
330 310 305 285 270 305 285 270
-
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
Source: Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates.
Demand for PC software is driven by three trends: (1) gains from rising home PC
penetration; (2) gains from an increasing percentage of PC owners who play games;
and (3) losses from the shift in PC gamers toward console games as console
penetration increases. IDC reports that home PC penetration rates increased from
39% in 1996 to almost 51% in 2000 and we believe that this number exceeded 80%
in 2008. Home PC penetration is undoubtedly growing due to, among other things,
the continued reduction of PC prices and, more important for the game industry, the
lowering of costs associated with graphics cards, high-end monitors, and sound
systems. We estimate that the average price of a fully loaded desktop computer has
fallen 70%, to below $500, over the past seven years. As better technology at lower
cost is available to a greater number of PC owners, an increasing number of high-
quality games has lured more PC owners into the gaming community. A 1998 survey
$70
$60
PlayStation
GB Advance/SP
$50
DS
PSP
$40 PlayStation2/PS2
$/Game
Xbox
$30 GameCube
PS3
Xbox 360
$20
Wii
Weighted ASP
$10
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E
In the past, average selling prices (ASPs) for console games trended down over the
first four years following console launch. Through 2005, launch prices for new titles
held steady at the $49.99 price point for AAA titles, $39.99 for most casual titles, and
$29.99 for most budget titles, with the number of new titles introduced each year
holding steady at around 850 SKUs. In 2008, most front-line titles for the current
generation were priced at $59.99. The driver of ASP increases in the current cycle
has been the proliferation of newer games priced at $60 or above, with slower
discounting in the months following a game’s launch and a dramatic increase in
music-themed game bundles and Nintendo peripheral bundles. Because of the rapid
ramp in Wii sales during the current cycle, publishers who backed the PS3 or Xbox
360 have been slow to recoup their development costs within the first several months
following a game’s launch, keeping game pricing high for longer than in the past in
Total COGS
Low $3.00 $9.00 $13.00 $8.00 $8.00 $1.00
High $17.00 $19.00 $31.50 $16.00 $17.00 $5.00
Average $10.00 $14.00 $22.25 $12.00 $12.50 $3.00
*Does not include possible external distributor costs ($3/title) or price protection for returns (7%-10%).
Third-Party Distributor $0 - $4.00 $0 - $4.00 $0 - $4.00 $0 - $4.00 $0 - $4.00 $0
Despite the subjective nature of classifying games by content and game play, we
believe that an analysis of historical trends in gaming genres will lead to useful and
interesting conclusions. Demand for games in any particular genre tends to be
relatively stable from year to year, but over a multi-year period, definite trends will
emerge. Although the overall size of the market for entertainment software has
grown substantially and best-selling titles vary tremendously from year to year,
demand for certain game genres has remained stable over time, with others showing
higher demand and yet others showing lower demand. For example, the
strategy/role-playing-game (RPG) genre was the fastest growing genre from 1997 –
2000, and showed the greatest decline from 2000 – 2005. We believe that the
increased popularity of strategy/RPG games was largely due to the rapid increase in
the quality of these games during the 32/64-bit console cycle, and other games
caught up in quality during the 128-bit cycle. As we forecasted seven years ago,
growth rates for several genres reverted to the mean during the last console cycle.
Games with a shooter component (the action and shooter genres) experienced a
large market share increase, from 26% in 2000 to 33% of total sales in 2008. This
trend was magnified in 2004, when such high profile action/shooter games such as
2008 STRATEGY/RPG
2008 SPORTS
Genre Total $ 92
Because of predictable demand for the genre, a deep and high-quality library of
sports titles will generally launch with a new console. We believe that one of the main
reasons Sega’s Dreamcast platform failed was due to Electronic Arts’ decision not to
produce any of its extremely popular sports games for that platform. Microsoft
recognized the importance of the sports genre to the success of the Xbox, securing
Electronic Arts as a third-party publisher that supported its Xbox Live service. Some
of the best-selling video games are sports franchises, including Madden NFL, NBA
Live/NBA 2K, and FIFA Soccer. We expect the sports category to grow in line with
the overall industry. The importance of sports to EA was reinforced in 2004, when
the company signed a highly publicized exclusive arrangement with the NFL, adding
this license to its other exclusives (NASCAR and FIFA Soccer). Competitor Take-
Two responded by signing its own semi-exclusive arrangement with Major League
Baseball.
2008 ACTION
2008 SHOOTER
Racing (7%)
Racing games place the player in the driver’s seat of some sort of vehicle (e.g., car,
motorcycle, jet ski, or boat), racing against the clock and/or competitors in an
enclosed or defined setting. The racing genre has been around since the earliest
video games, and is usually one of the easiest games to produce. Game play is
extremely important in this genre; how the vehicles ‘handle’ in the virtual world
determines the level of enjoyment, and players tend to continue to play enjoyable
games. Even with enhanced game play, the nature of the racing genre tends to
cause gamers to lose interest in racing games more quickly than other genres. Some
of the most popular racing games include Gran Turismo, Need for Speed, Burnout,
NASCAR, Forza and Midnight Club. We expect the racing genre to maintain its
current market share over the next several years. In late 2004 and early 2005, there
were an unprecedented number of “big” racing games released, including Gran
2008 R A C IN G
Fighting (5%)
Fighting games involve characters that fight hand-to-hand, usually in a one-on-one
situation. NPD includes professional wrestling games under this genre, which has
given the sagging popularity of this genre a boost. Fighting games tend to be most
popular with young males ages 10 to 14. Popular Fighting games include the WWE,
Tekken, Mortal Kombat, Dead or Alive and the new UFC game. With the continued
popularity of professional wrestling and the advent of UFC and the competing MMA
from Electronic Arts, we expect the Fighting genre to maintain market share in the 5
– 7% range.
Simulation (less than 1%)
Simulation games attempt to re-create a realistic situation in a virtual world (note that
this category does not include one of the most popular sim games – The Sims – as it
is classified as Strategy/RPG). Situations usually involve control of various vehicles
such as planes, helicopters, and submarines. The most popular simulation games
are designed for the PC. These games are not very time-intensive and usually
attract an older audience. We expect this genre to continue to remain relatively small
over the next several years.
2008 FIGHTING
2008 SIMULATIONS
Genre Total $ 45
2008 F A M IL Y / C H IL D R E N
G e n re T o ta l $ 2 ,9 3 9
2008 O THER
G e n r e T o ta l $ 124
We believe that the NPD genres, although generally descriptive of each particular
game’s focus, are not suitably descriptive of the potential audience for the game. For
example, NPD classifies THQ’s WWE brand as a fighting game, comparing the
brand to other fighting games such as Midway’s Mortal Kombat and Sega’s Virtua
Fighter. In our view, the typical customer for the WWE brand is a fan of the real-life
World Wrestling Entertainment, and has a lot more in common with fans of NASCAR
than with fans of fighting. WWE video game customers purchase the game for the
same reasons that NFL fans purchase Madden Football; they like to control a
simulated game in which their heroes compete on the small screen. Customers of
the Mortal Kombat and Virtua Fighter series are looking for an altogether different
gaming experience.
We believe that investors are better served by having the various genres simplified
into fewer and more general categories as follows:
KIDDIE CONTENT: This category includes games targeted at children under the
age of 12. The category would include Pokemon, Hannah Montana, Mario Brothers,
Shrek, Scooby-Doo, Harry Potter, Pixar titles, SpongeBob and other internally
developed and licensed brands targeted at children. Though it is true that many
brands such as Mario are enjoyed by a much wider demographic, in our view these
brands generate the bulk of their sales by providing family-friendly content that is
always safe for play by children. The typical game in this category is built upon the
platform/scrolling character model, in which the character traverses a landscape and
overcomes various obstacles placed in its way. The object of most kiddie games is
to move to ever-higher levels, and the games are typically designed to allow a 10-
year old to progress to the end. Because of the relatively simple content, these
games are easily developed for the handheld platforms, which are disproportionately
owned by small children. Some popular kiddie content has been developed for the
current generation consoles, including Crash Bandicoot. To date, blockbuster titles
such as Harry Potter, Mario Galaxy, LEGO and The Legend of Zelda have all been
bona fide hits on the current generation consoles. Games included in this category
are almost always “E” rated. We believe that the relevant question to ask in
determining whether a particular game is a kiddie game is “would grandma buy it for
junior as a birthday present?”
EC E E10+ T M
(EARLY CHILD) (EVERYONE) (EVERYONE 10+) (TEEN) (MATURE) TOTAL
STRATEGY/RPG 0% 36% 13% 33% 18% 100%
SPORTS 0% 93% 3% 4% 0% 100%
EXTREME SPORTS 0% 11% 51% 37% 0% 100%
ACTION 0% 24% 20% 24% 32% 100%
RACING 0% 72% 14% 15% 0% 100%
SHOOTER 0% 0% 3% 19% 77% 100%
FIGHTING 0% 0% 1% 96% 3% 100%
SIMULATIONS 0% 18% 14% 68% 0% 100%
FAMILY/CHILDREN 0% 36% 8% 56% 0% 100%
ALL OTHER 0% 77% 16% 5% 2% 100%
In our opinion, target demographic is significant for two reasons: first, the largest
(and growing) group of consumers, consisting of males ages 16 and older, is
interested in edgy content. Over 70% of primary current generation console users fit
this demographic and we expect this market share to expand as the PS3 and Xbox
360 further penetrate the console installed base. Because of the expense of the PS3
and Xbox 360, early adopters were squarely within the sights of the edgy content
producers. As such, there were not a large number of “E”-rated games for the PS3
or Xbox 360 for the first few years, with most “E”-rated content released on the lower
priced (and more mass market friendly) Wii. We think that many consumers have a
tendency to shop for games by ESRB rating, and much as the “G”-rated motion
picture is an anathema to teens, we believe that the “E”-rated video game can cause
a similar aversion to early adopters of the PS3 and Xbox 360. Second, the success
of the Wii has caused a mismatch in content created by the publishers, with the early
focus of most publishers on the Xbox 360 and PS3, causing all (but Ubisoft) to
overlook the more family friendly Wii audience.
EC E E10+ T M
(EARLY CHILD) (EVERYONE) (EVERYONE 10+) (TEEN) (MATURE) TOTAL
ACTIVISION 0% 5% 12% 61% 22% 100%
ELECTRONIC ARTS 0% 39% 8% 44% 9% 100%
MAJESCO ENTERTAINMENT 0% 93% 3% 1% 2% 100%
MIDWAY GAMES 0% 28% 1% 47% 24% 100%
NINTENDO 0% 86% 1% 13% 0% 100%
TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE 0% 29% 8% 8% 54% 100%
THQ 0% 53% 3% 32% 12% 100%
UBISOFT 0% 35% 14% 19% 32% 100%
CONSOLE RATINGS
TOTAL
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NOT SPECIFIED 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EC (EARLY CHILDHOOD) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
E (EVERYONE) 66% 53% 53% 51% 46% 41% 40% 39%
E10+ (EVERYONE 10+) 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 13% 11% 10%
T (TEEN) 23% 29% 33% 28% 32% 29% 30% 32%
M (MATURE) 10% 18% 14% 21% 17% 17% 19% 19%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
CONSOLE RATINGS
SPORTS SEPARATED
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NOT SPECIFIED 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
EC (EARLY CHILDHOOD) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
E (EVERYONE) 50% 36% 39% 35% 34% 25% 28% 24%
E10+ (EVERYONE 10+) 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 12% 10% 9%
T (TEEN) 23% 25% 30% 25% 30% 26% 29% 32%
M (MATURE) 10% 18% 14% 21% 16% 16% 19% 19%
S (SPORTS) 16% 21% 17% 19% 19% 20% 15% 16%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
35,000
30,000
25,000
($millions)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
U .S . S o ftw are U n its (m il) 2004 2005 2 006 20 07 200 8 200 9E 20010 E 200 11E
P layS ta tio n 7.9 2 .1 0.4 0.1 0.1 - - -
N 64 0.0 0 .0 - - - - - -
D ream ca st 0.1 0 .0 0.0 - - - - -
P layS ta tio n 2 8 4.1 76.2 73.5 56.1 40.0 18.0 4 .7 -
PS3 - - 1.3 12.6 27.2 40.3 53 .5 67.6
G am eC u b e 2 6.2 21.7 17.2 6.1 0.6 - - -
W ii - - 3.0 32.0 70.3 85.9 105 .4 1 20.9
Xbox 4 2.4 37.3 22.2 7.3 2.1 - - -
X b o x 360 - 2 .6 20.8 40.7 48.3 57.8 68 .1 76.8
All O th er - - - 0.1 0.4 - - -
T o tal H o m e C o n so le 160 .7 139 .9 138.4 154.9 1 89.0 201.9 231 .8 2 65.3
G ro w th (% ) 8% -13% -1% 12 % 22% 7% 15% 14%
T o tal S o ftw a re 250 .0 228 .5 241.1 267.5 2 97.7 319.9 362 .0 4 05.7
G ro w th (% ) 4% -9% 5% 11 % 11% 7% 13% 12%
E u ro p e S o ftw are U n its (m il) 2004 2005 2 006 20 07 200 8 200 9E 20010 E 200 11E
P layS ta tio n 6.0 3 .0 2.0 1.0 0.5 - - -
N 64 0.4 0 .3 0.2 - - - - -
D ream ca st - - - - - - - -
P layS ta tio n 2 7 8.1 77.8 77.8 54.0 38.8 17.5 4 .7 -
PS3 - - - 10.9 25.2 39.4 53 .3 67.3
G am eC u b e 1 2.0 10.9 8.9 2.9 0.3 - - -
W ii - - 2.5 24.0 56.7 70.3 91 .1 1 07.0
Xbox 2 2.8 21.0 12.2 4.1 1.2 0.3 - -
X b o x 360 - 1 .5 17.6 23.5 28.7 33.7 39 .8 45.4
All O th er - - - - - - - -
T o tal H o m e C o n so le 119 .2 114 .6 121.2 120.2 1 51.5 161.2 188 .9 2 19.7
G ro w th (% ) 17% -4% 6% -1 % 26% 6% 17% 16%
T o tal S o ftw a re 209 .4 208 .9 224.5 238.7 2 77.0 305.0 342 .5 3 80.0
G ro w th (% ) 10% 0% 7% 6% 16% 1 0% 12% 11%
Japan Softw are (m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 5.0 3.0 1.5 0.5 - - - -
N64 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 - - - -
Dream cast - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 53.0 45.5 39.0 24.0 12.0 6.0 3.0 1.0
PS3 - - 1.4 6.2 10.0 13.0 17.0 20.0
G am eCube 8.5 3.0 0.4 7.0 2.0 - - -
W ii - - 3.5 14.9 15.5 18.0 20.0 22.0
Xbox 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 - - -
Xbox 360 - 0.3 1.2 1.8 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.0
All O ther - - - - - - - -
Total Hom e Console 68.4 53.2 47.8 54.9 42.8 41.0 44.0 47.0
G row th (% ) 5% -22% -10% 15% -22% -4% 7% 7%
G am eBoy/Color - - - - - - - -
G B Advance/SP 17.1 7.3 2.6 0.4 0.3 - - -
DS 1.1 21.5 49.8 39.9 31.9 30.0 28.0 26.0
PSP 3.0 7.5 11.0 17.0 24.0 30.0 35.0 38.0
All O ther - - - - - - - -
Total Portable 21.2 36.3 63.3 57.2 56.2 60.0 63.0 64.0
G row th (% ) 25% 71% 74% -10% -2% 7% 5% 2%
Total Console 89.6 89.5 111.2 112.2 99.0 101.0 107.0 111.0
G row th (% ) 10% 0% 24% 1% -12% 2% 6% 4%
PC Unit Sales 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.3 7.2
G row th (% ) -3% -3% -3% -1% -1% 3% -1% -1%
Total Softw are 97.4 97.1 118.6 119.5 106.2 108.4 114.3 118.2
G row th (% ) 8% 0% 22% 1% -11% 2% 5% 3%
W orldw ide Softw are (m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 18.9 8.1 3.9 1.6 0.6 - - -
N64 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 - - - -
Dream cast 0.1 0.0 0.0 - - - - -
PlayStation2 215.2 199.5 190.3 134.1 90.8 41.5 12.4 1.0
PS3 - - 2.7 29.6 62.4 92.7 123.8 155.0
G am eCube 46.7 35.5 26.5 15.9 2.9 - - -
W ii - - 9.0 70.9 142.6 174.2 216.5 249.9
Xbox 66.4 59.3 34.9 11.5 3.4 0.3 - -
Xbox 360 - 4.4 39.6 66.0 80.3 95.4 111.9 126.2
All O ther - - - 0.1 0.4 - - -
Total Hom e Console 348.3 307.7 307.5 330.1 383.3 404.1 464.7 532.0
G row th (% ) 10% -12% 0% 7% 16% 5% 15% 14%
Total Console 438.6 426.9 476.9 525.9 590.5 637.6 726.6 816.1
G row th (% ) 12% -3% 12% 10% 12% 8% 14% 12%
PC Unit Sales 118.3 107.6 107.2 99.8 90.3 95.7 92.2 87.8
G row th (% ) -7% -9% 0% -7% -10% 6% -4% -5%
Total Softw are 556.8 534.5 584.1 625.7 680.8 733.3 818.9 903.9
G row th (% ) 7% -4% 9% 7% 9% 8% 12% 10%
U .S . S oftw are ($m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
P layS tation 100 20 5 2 1 - - -
N 64 0 0 - - - - - -
D ream cast 0 0 0 - - - - -
P layS tatio n 2 2,817 2,530 2,304 1,767 1,218 414 94 -
PS3 - - 75 750 1,543 2,135 2,782 3,448
G am eC ub e 839 664 482 140 10 - - -
W ii - - 145 1,502 3,363 3,864 4,533 4,956
Xbox 1,485 1,282 604 137 24 - - -
X b o x 360 - 146 1,148 2,368 2,739 3,005 3,441 3,764
All O ther - - - 1 2 - - -
T otal H om e C onso le $5,243 $4,642 $4,762 $6,667 $8,899 $9,418 $10,851 $12,168
G ro w th (% ) 7% -11% 3% 40% 33% 6% 15% 12%
G am eB oy/C olo r 7 1 0 - - - - -
G B Adv ance/S P 949 744 519 249 38 7 - -
DS 47 258 671 1,248 1,571 1,684 1,816 1,867
PSP - 420 501 507 462 452 486 498
All O ther 2 1 - - 1 - - -
T otal P ortable $1,004 $1,424 $1,692 $2,004 $2,072 $2,142 $2,303 $2,366
G ro w th (% ) 11% 42% 19% 18% 3% 3% 7% 3%
T otal C o nso le $6,246 $6,066 $6,454 $8,670 $10,971 $11,560 $13,153 $14,534
G ro w th (% ) 8% -3% 6% 34% 27% 5% 14% 10%
T otal So ftw are $7,357 $7,019 $7,433 $9,488 $11,672 $12,239 $13,811 $15,172
G ro w th (% ) 5% -5% 6% 28% 23% 5% 13% 10%
E urop e S oftw are ($m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
P layS tation 90 30 16 15 9 - - -
N 64 4 1 0 - - - - -
D ream cast - - - - - - - -
P layS tatio n 2 3,122 2,879 2,490 1,754 1,203 447 104 -
PS3 - - - 738 1,464 2,129 2,772 3,367
G am eC ub e 456 370 267 72 6 - - -
W ii - - 130 1,392 2,950 3,304 4,099 4,602
Xbox 911 801 366 89 12 - - -
X b o x 360 - 105 1,188 1,599 1,753 1,817 2,067 2,268
All O ther - - - - - - - -
T otal H om e C onso le $4,583 $4,187 $4,457 $5,658 $7,396 $7,697 $9,043 $10,237
G ro w th (% ) 25% -9% 6% 27% 31% 4% 17% 13%
G am eB oy/C olo r 9 3 2 - - - - -
G B Adv ance/S P 701 573 423 230 28 8 - -
DS - 157 471 1,333 1,666 1,680 1,849 1,944
PSP - 245 404 466 390 386 430 456
All O ther - - - - - - - -
T otal P ortable $710 $978 $1,300 $2,029 $2,084 $2,074 $2,279 $2,401
G ro w th (% ) 22% 38% 33% 56% 3% 0% 10% 5%
T otal C o nso le $5,293 $5,165 $5,757 $7,687 $9,480 $9,771 $11,321 $12,638
G ro w th (% ) 24% -2% 11% 34% 23% 3% 16% 12%
T otal So ftw are $7,262 $7,149 $7,617 $9,384 $10,938 $11,271 $12,759 $13,988
G ro w th (% ) 19% -2% 7% 23% 17% 3% 13% 10%
U .S . an d E urop e S ales $14,619 $14,168 $15,051 $18,872 $22,611 $23,510 $26,570 $29,160
G ro w th (% ) 11% -3% 6% 25% 20% 4% 13% 10%
Japan Softw are ($m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 78 39 20 7 - - - -
N 64 15 6 3 3 - - - -
D ream cast - - - - - - - -
PlayStation2 2,067 1,593 1,287 744 348 150 57 17
PS3 - - 84 360 540 650 782 860
G am eC ub e 383 113 15 140 32 - - -
W ii - - 175 717 713 792 840 880
Xbox 47 32 14 4 1 - - -
Xbox 360 - 18 66 90 144 172 164 156
All O ther - - - - - - - -
T otal H om e C onsole $2,589 $1,800 $1,663 $2,064 $1,778 $1,764 $1,843 $1,913
G row th (% ) -1% -30% -8% 24% -14% -1% 4% 4%
G am eB oy/C olor - - - - - - - -
G B Advance/SP 479 183 54 6 4 - - -
DS 42 710 1,543 1,157 861 750 672 572
PSP 135 315 440 646 864 1,020 1,120 1,140
All O ther - - - - - - - -
T otal Portable $656 $1,208 $2,036 $1,809 $1,729 $1,770 $1,792 $1,712
G row th (% ) 29% 84% 69% -11% -4% 2% 1% -4%
T otal Console $3,245 $3,008 $3,699 $3,873 $3,507 $3,534 $3,635 $3,625
G row th (% ) 4% -7% 23% 5% -9% 1% 3% 0%
T otal Softw are $3,575 $3,318 $4,004 $4,158 $3,777 $3,839 $3,920 $3,895
G row th (% ) 3% -7% 21% 4% -9% 2% 2% -1%
W orldw ide Softw are ($m il) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 20010E 20011E
PlayStation 268 89 40 23 10 - - -
N 64 20 7 3 3 - - - -
D ream cast 0 0 0 - - - - -
PlayStation2 8,006 7,002 6,080 4,265 2,769 1,011 255 17
PS3 - - 159 1,848 3,546 4,914 6,336 7,675
G am eC ub e 1,677 1,148 763 352 48 - - -
W ii - - 450 3,611 7,026 7,961 9,472 10,438
Xbox 2,443 2,114 984 230 37 - - -
Xbox 360 - 269 2,402 4,057 4,636 4,994 5,673 6,188
All O ther - - - 1 2 - - -
T otal H om e C onsole $12,415 $10,629 $10,882 $14,388 $18,073 $18,879 $21,736 $24,318
G row th (% ) 11% -14% 2% 32% 26% 4% 15% 12%
G am e B oy/C olor 16 4 2 - - - - -
G B Advance/SP 2,129 1,500 996 485 70 15 - -
DS 89 1,125 2,685 3,738 4,098 4,114 4,337 4,384
PSP 135 980 1,345 1,618 1,716 1,858 2,036 2,094
All O ther 2 1 - - 1 - - -
T otal Portable $2,370 $3,610 $5,029 $5,842 $5,885 $5,986 $6,374 $6,478
G row th (% ) 19% 52% 39% 16% 1% 2% 6% 2%
T otal Console $14,784 $14,239 $15,911 $20,230 $23,958 $24,865 $28,110 $30,797
G row th (% ) 12% -4% 12% 27% 18% 4% 13% 10%
1.56 1.39 1.29
PC $ Sales $3,409 $3,247 $3,144 $2,799 $2,429 $2,483 $2,380 $2,258
G row th (% ) -1% -5% -3% -11% -13% 2% -4% -5%
T otal Softw are $18,194 $17,486 $19,055 $23,030 $26,388 $27,349 $30,490 $33,055
G row th (% ) 10% -4% 9% 21% 15% 4% 11% 8%
Stock Price
as of close
Company 1/4/1999 Other Date 5/20/2009 CAGR %
Acclaim Entertainment $ 11.44 $ - -100%
Activision Blizzard $ 0.91 $ 11.41 29%
Atari $ 237.50 $ 1.68 -39%
BAM! $ 8.00 11/14/2001 $ - -100%
Electronic Arts $ 12.63 $ 22.08 6%
Interplay $ 1.75 $ 0.06 -28%
Nintendo ¥10,710 ¥25,720 11%
Majesco Entertainement $ 12.50 1/26/2005 $ 1.33 -41%
Midway Games 10.94 $ 0.07 -40%
Take-Two Interactive Software 5.75 $ 9.35 5%
3DO $ 35.00 $ - -100%
THQ $ 8.69 $ 5.96 -4%
Ubisoft Entertainment € 7.18 € 15.08 8%
Source: Bloomberg, Baseline, Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates. Includes dividends for Nintendo.
Year for COOL & TTWO = Nov-Oct; ex. CY2005 and CY2006 Year for TTWO = Feb-Jan
Source: Company reports and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates.
DEVELOPMENT SYNERGIES
One of the foreseen consequences of current generation console launches
was the dramatic increase in the cost of game development. Each of the last
three console transitions involved significant advances in hardware technology, with
correspondingly significant advances in the quality of software produced for the new
consoles. We think that the success of past console cycle transitions was determined
more by advances in software development than by advances in hardware
technology. The terms 8-bit, 16-bit, etc., refer to the amount of information processed
by the console during each microprocessor cycle. The total amount of information
processed is therefore a function of both the “bits” and the “cycles”. When
microprocessors routinely doubled in power every 18 months during the 1980s and
1990s, the amount of information that could be processed in a finite period of time
also routinely doubled. When Sony replaced its PSOne (which processed 32 bits of
information per cycle at 33 megahertz cycle speed) with the PS2 (which processed
128 bits of information per cycle at 295 MHz), it increased the amount of information
seen each second by almost 40 fold. This allowed for significant improvements in
graphic design, with more fluid motion capture and a greater number of characters
on screen performing more detailed maneuvers. To the extent that software
developers were able to take advantage of this processing speed, games were
longer, more complex, more visually stunning, and generally more interesting.
Unfortunately, providing greater information carries a greater cost, both in
terms of time and money. The average PSOne game took a team of 10 – 12
developers approximately nine months to complete. If we assume fixed costs of
$100,000 per game plus variable costs of $100,000 per year per developer (including
office expense, systems support, taxes, benefits, etc.), the typical PSOne game cost
publishers approximately $900,000 to produce. The average PS2 game took a team
of 15 – 24 developers approximately 20 months to complete. If we assume no
changes to fixed or variable costs, it’s easy to understand the estimated average cost
of $3 – 4 million per PS2 game.
The Xbox 360 and the PS3 CPUs are 4 – 10x faster than those in their
predecessors, with RAM that is 8 – 16x greater than legacy console memory. This
means that current generation software has the potential to carry around 60 times
the amount of information contained in legacy software. Middleware and
development tools can significantly reduce the cost of creating games containing this
exponential increase in information, but we estimate that at least a two- to four-fold
increase in manpower or time is required to complete a current generation game.
Current generation games frequently require the efforts of 50 – 70 person
development teams, and cost between $10 – 15 million to produce. Increasingly,
substantial investments in common development tools and processes allow for
“learning curve” benefits, with subsequent games using the same game engine as a
predecessor costing as much as 20% less to produce. The average current
generation console game takes at least two full years to complete (with some efforts
taking three to four years), compared with the average 20-month completion time for
legacy generation games.
As we pointed out in our industry report five years ago (The Definition of Insanity),
most of the large publishers lamented overspending on PS2, Xbox, and GameCube
software development and abandoning the large PSOne installed base too early
2007 2008
North North
America International America International
Activision Blizzard 58% 42% 54% 46%
Electronic Arts 51% 49% 58% 42%
Majesco Entertainment 86% 14% 91% 9%
Midway Games 62% 38% 65% 35%
Nintendo 31% 69% 39% 61%
Take-Two Interactive Software 75% 25% 65% 35%
THQ 50% 50% 52% 48%
Ubisoft Entertainment 41% 59% 39% 61%
ONLINE STRATEGIES
When it merged with VU Games, Activision jumped past the rest of the publicly
traded publishers to become the most successful online game publisher. There are
many Chinese companies involved with online gaming, and many are enjoying great
success, but among the packaged goods video game publishers, only Activision
Blizzard has managed to generate significant profits from its online endeavors.
Electronic Arts is perhaps the next farthest along among U.S. and European
publishers in adopting an online gaming strategy with its several online efforts
(Warhammer Online, pogo.com, a Star Wars MMO, and several free-to-play games
%* 89% %* 71%
CY 2008 MAJESCO CY 2008 MIDWAY CY 2008 NINTENDO
Amount Amount Amount
Rank Brand ($ mil) Rank Brand ($ mil) Rank Brand ($ mil)
1 Cooking Mama $ 45 1 Mortal Kombat $ 70 1 Mario Brothers $ 761
2 Jillian Michaels $ 13 2 Game Party $ 30 2 Wii Fit $ 407
3 Cake Mania $ 3 3 Unreal $ 17 3 Wii Play $ 261
4 Left Brain Right Brain $ 3 4 TNA IMPACT! $ 9 4 Pokemon $ 119
5 Wonder World Amusement Park $ 2 5 Touchmaster $ 6 5 Zelda $ 67
6 Wild Earth $ 2 6 Blitz: The League $ 5 6 Animal Crossing $ 54
7 Furu Furu Park $ 2 7 NBA Ballers $ 4 7 Nintendogs $ 44
8 Nancy Drew $ 1 8 Blacksite: Area 51 $ 3 8 Wii Music $ 42
9 Jaws $ 1 9 Stranglehold $ 2 9 Brain Age $ 39
10 Pet Pals $ 1 10 Cruis'n $ 1 10 Kirby $ 26
Total Top 10 Brands $ 72 Total Top 10 Brands $ 147 Total Top 10 Brands $ 1,820
Total Top 10 Brands $ 662 Total Top 10 Brands $ 305 Total Top 10 Brands $ 505
As Figure 55 illustrates, Nintendo, Electronic Arts and Activision were the only
publishers with more than one brand that generated over $100 million in U.S.
retail sales during 2008. We chose a $100 million threshold because we believe
that this figure reflects potential lifetime sales of more than three million units,
indicating a bona fide “home run”. All of Electronic Arts’ top-10 brands generated
C Y 2008 A C T IV IS IO N
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 G u it a r H e r o $ 992
2 C a ll O f D u t y $ 446
3 W a rc ra ft $ 104
4 S p id e r - M a n $ 42
5 C a b e la 's $ 32
6 Kung Fu Panda $ 32
7 Jam es Bond $ 25
8 T ra n s fo rm e rs $ 23
9 C r a s h B a n d ic o o t $ 20
10 Tony H awk $ 17
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 1 ,7 3 4
Activision Blizzard, based in Santa Monica, California and founded in 1979, was the first independent
developer and distributor of entertainment software. Today it is a leading video game software publisher for
Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft video game consoles as well as for the PC. In addition to publishing, it
maintains distribution operations in Europe for third-party publishers of interactive entertainment software, its
own publishing operations, and manufacturers of interactive entertainment hardware. Key games include its
Marvel licensed Spider-Man and X-Men games, and its Call of Duty, Tony Hawk, and Guitar Hero games. In
July 2008, it merged with Vivendi’s game unit bringing the highly successful World of Warcraft online game
to the company. Vivendi owns approximately 52% of the Activision’s shares.
VALUATION
Activision’s core business remains strong, and the continued growth of Blizzard’s business give us great
confidence in our estimates. Blizzard has recently shifted service providers in China, driving a likely $0.03
increase in EPS this year and another $0.03 in EPS growth next year as a result. Blizzard is expected to
launch Starcraft 2 later this year, with two Starcraft 2 expansion packs launching next year. We expect to
see the Activision’s product mix shift, with owned intellectual property and lower cost licensed property
comprising a greater portion of publishing revenues next year.
We note that most of Activision’s major FY:10 games (Modern Warfare 2, Tony Hawk Ride and Blur)
showed very well at the E3 Expo. We believe Modern Warfare 2 will be the best selling game in 2009.
Maintaining our STRONG BUY rating, and our $16 price target, which reflects a forward multiple of 18x our
calendar 2010 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.76 plus $2.50/share in cash. Our price target reflects a discount
to the current forward multiple for the S&P 500 to reflects concerns about Activision’s revenue concentration
from its three flagship properties.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, greater than expected
deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for game software, the effects of competition, options
investigation impact, and lower than expected consumer demand for video game hardware.
Publishing $ 578.6 $ 443.0 $ 1,695.0 $ 2,716.5 $ 348.0 $ 462.7 $ 518.3 $ 1,914.4 $ 3,243.4 $ 386.2 $ 512.3 $ 483.5 $ 2,034.2 $ 3,416.2
Blizzard $ - $ 271.0 $ 477.0 $ 748.0 $ 291.0 $ 287.3 $ 316.7 $ 455.7 $ 1,350.6 $ 352.0 $ 363.5 $ 374.9 $ 498.4 $ 1,588.8
Distribution 75.6 56.0 171.0 302.6 85.0 35.0 35.0 120.0 275.0 45.0 40.0 40.0 120.0 245.0
Total Revenues 654.2 770.0 2,343.0 3,767.2 724.0 785.0 870.0 2,490.1 4,869.0 783.2 915.8 898.4 2,652.6 5,250.0
Product Costs 311.9 313.0 1,061.0 1,685.9 238.0 262.8 301.6 927.2 1,729.6 270.5 294.6 286.0 921.3 1,772.4
Royalties 68.2 39.0 169.0 276.2 108.0 98.4 97.0 300.4 603.8 99.5 115.0 112.5 310.0 637.0
Cost of Revenues 380.2 352.0 1,230.0 1,962.2 346.0 361.2 398.6 1,227.6 2,333.4 370.0 409.6 398.5 1,231.3 2,409.4
Product Development 50.0 200.0 196.0 446.0 111.0 100.0 100.0 160.0 471.0 105.0 100.0 100.0 155.0 460.0
Sales & Marketing 86.5 142.0 240.0 468.5 78.0 113.4 113.1 293.9 598.4 86.2 137.4 125.8 278.5 627.8
General & Admin. 57.4 94.0 103.0 254.4 70.0 120.0 95.0 110.0 395.0 100.0 90.0 95.0 110.0 395.0
Other Amortization/Restructuring 0.0 176.0 233.0 409.0 94.0 65.0 65.0 70.0 294.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Costs and Expenses 193.9 612.0 772.0 1,577.9 353.0 398.4 373.1 633.9 1,758.4 291.2 327.4 320.8 543.5 1,482.8
Income (loss) from operations 80.1 (194.0) 341.0 227.1 25.0 25.4 98.3 628.5 777.2 122.1 178.8 179.2 877.8 1,357.8
Interest income (expense), net 10.9 24.0 18.0 52.9 10.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 67.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 76.0
Income (loss) before income tax provision 91.1 (170.0) 359.0 280.1 35.0 44.4 117.3 647.5 844.2 141.1 197.8 198.2 896.8 1,433.8
Income tax provision (benefit) 32.1 (62.0) 118.0 88.1 18.0 15.1 39.9 220.2 293.1 48.0 67.2 67.4 304.9 487.5
Net income (loss) 59.0 (108.0) 241.0 192.0 17.0 29.3 77.4 427.4 551.1 93.1 130.5 130.8 591.9 946.3
Shares, Basic 592.6 1,271.0 1,326.0 1,063.2 1,308.0 1,290.0 1,280.0 1,270.0 1,287.0 1,270.0 1,270.0 1,270.0 1,270.0 1,270.0
Shares, Diluted 647.0 1,384.0 1,390.0 1,140.3 1,359.0 1,340.0 1,330.0 1,320.0 1,337.3 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0 1,320.0
EPS Basic (Adjusted GAAP) $ 0.10 $ (0.08) $ 0.18 $ 0.18 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 $ 0.34 $ 0.43 $ 0.07 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.47 $ 0.75
EPS Diluted (Adjusted GAAP) $ 0.09 $ (0.08) $ 0.17 $ 0.17 $ 0.01 $ 0.02 $ 0.06 $ 0.32 $ 0.41 $ 0.07 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.45 $ 0.72
EPS Basic (pro forma) $ 0.12 $ 0.07 $ 0.32 $ 0.50 $ 0.08 $ 0.07 $ 0.11 $ 0.43 $ 0.69 $ 0.09 $ 0.12 $ 0.12 $ 0.49 $ 0.83
EPS Diluted (pro forma) $ 0.12 $ 0.07 $ 0.31 $ 0.48 $ 0.08 $ 0.07 $ 0.11 $ 0.41 $ 0.67 $ 0.09 $ 0.12 $ 0.12 $ 0.47 $ 0.80
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 42% 54% 48% 48% 52% 54% 54% 51% 52% 53% 55% 56% 54% 54%
Product Development 8% 26% 8% 12% 15% 13% 11% 6% 10% 13% 11% 11% 6% 9%
Sales & Marketing 13% 18% 10% 12% 11% 14% 13% 12% 12% 11% 15% 14% 11% 12%
General & Admin. 9% 12% 4% 7% 10% 15% 11% 4% 8% 13% 10% 11% 4% 8%
Royalties 10% 5% 7% 7% 15% 13% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 12%
Operating Profit 12% -25% 15% 6% 3% 3% 11% 25% 16% 16% 20% 20% 33% 26%
Net Income 9% -14% 10% 5% 2% 4% 9% 17% 11% 12% 14% 15% 22% 18%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue 32% 142% 58% 20% 20% 13% 6% 8% 17% 3% 7% 8%
Gross Margin 64% 271% 55% 50% 55% 13% 13% 9% 19% 6% 13% 12%
Product Development 52% 505% 57% 40% 100% -50% -18% -5% 0% 0% -3% -2%
Sales & Marketing 26% 174% 100% 16% 31% -20% 22% 10% 21% 11% -5% 5%
General & Admin. 60% 151% 45% 37% 109% 1% 7% 43% -25% 0% 0% 0%
Royalties -38% -26% 2% 42% 44% 149% 78% -8% 17% 16% 3% 6%
Operating Profit 166% nm -16% -54% -68% nm 84% 388% 605% 82% 40% 75%
Net Income 112% -15573% -11% -62% -50% nm 77% 448% 346% 69% 38% 72%
*Pro forma for FY:09 and thereafter **FY09 contains only 3 Qtrs Reflects 2-for-1 stock split 9/08
Company report and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates
Electronic Arts’ Top 10 Selling Brands for 2008 (U.S. Retail Sales $)
C Y 2008 E L E C T R O N IC A R T S
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 R ock Band $ 662
2 M a d d e n F o o t b a ll $ 312
3 T h e S im s $ 143
4 N eed For Speed $ 106
5 N C A A F o o t b a ll $ 94
6 T ig e r W o o d s $ 89
7 F IF A $ 79
8 N B A L iv e $ 71
9 L e ft 4 D e a d $ 67
10 B a t t le f ie ld $ 57
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 1 ,6 8 0
Electronic Arts, based in Redwood City, California, is one of the largest independent developer and
publisher of interactive entertainment software in the world. EA games are segmented into three major
brands, EA Games, EA Sports, and EA Play. Top titles under the EA Games label include Battlefield, Need
For Speed, Medal of Honor, and Harry Potter. The EA Sports division is the industry leader with top-selling
sports games including Madden NFL, NCAA Football, NBA Live, FIFA Soccer, and Tiger Woods PGA Tour.
EA Play brands include The Sims and its Hasbro and other casual games. Electronic Arts also develops
online subscription games such as Warhammer and Pogo as well as games for mobile devices/phones.
VALUATION
Despite recent weak performance, we continue to like the EA story. We have been wrong about this stock
for close to five years, overestimating management’s ability to manage the company’s cost structure. This
time, we are again placing our faith in management’s ability to cut costs (the definition of insanity), but this
time, we genuinely expect a different outcome. In contrast to prior false starts, EA management has actually
cut costs and reduced both headcount and projects. We think that the Q4 results reflect management’s
commitment to cost cutting, and believe that the company is sincere in its expressed desire to grow profits
substantially over the next few years.
EA’s first half lineup is loaded, with Harry Potter, Tiger Woods, EA Sports Active and Fight Night up against
easy Q1 comps, and with FIFA and Need for Speed up against easy Q2 comps. We think that the
company’s lineup will allow it to handily beat consensus expectations the first half of the year, and expect EA
shares to continue to appreciate over the near term. We are particularly impressed with the potential for EA
Sports Active and for Tiger Woods, and think that both could be blockbusters on the Wii.
Maintaining BUY, and our $27 price target, reflecting a multiple of 15x our adjusted FY:11 EPS estimate of
$1.29/share, plus $8/share in cash. Our target is below the low end of the company’s historical range,
reflecting market contraction and recent poor execution.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, greater than expected
deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for game software, the effects of competition (both from
other video game publishers and from other forms of entertainment), and slower than expected consumer
demand for video game hardware.
Net Revenues (non GAAP) 609.0 1,126.0 1,742.0 609.0 4,086.0 778.8 1,243.9 1,670.3 657.0 4,350.0 891.6 1,277.4 1,736.0 795.0 4,700.0
Cost of Goods Sold 292.0 553.0 921.0 307.0 2,073.0 355.6 549.4 597.4 313.0 1,815.4 408.4 565.6 676.0 293.9 1,943.8
Gross Profit 317.0 573.0 821.0 302.0 2,013.0 423.2 694.5 1,072.9 344.0 2,534.6 483.2 711.8 1,060.1 501.2 2,756.2
Research & Devel. 322.0 337.0 271.0 295.0 1,225.0 285.0 285.0 325.0 275.0 1,170.0 295.0 290.0 310.0 300.0 1,195.0
Sales & Marketing 123.0 192.0 245.0 111.0 671.0 127.4 218.9 212.1 93.5 652.0 137.7 212.2 220.7 106.3 676.8
General & Admin. 74.0 79.0 71.0 61.0 285.0 70.0 70.0 75.0 70.0 285.0 81.0 82.0 61.0 75.0 299.0
Restructuring and Other Charges
Operating Income (loss) (202.0) (35.0) 234.0 (165.0) (168.0) (59.2) 120.6 460.8 (94.6) 427.6 (30.5) 127.6 468.4 19.9 585.4
Interest Income 15.0 7.0 14.0 8.0 44.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 24.0 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 26.0
Income before Taxes (187.0) (28.0) 248.0 (157.0) (124.0) (53.2) 126.6 466.8 (88.6) 451.6 (24.5) 133.6 475.4 26.9 611.4
Income Taxes (52.0) (8.0) 69.0 (37.0) (28.0) (14.9) 35.4 130.7 (24.8) 126.4 (6.9) 37.4 133.1 7.5 171.2
Income b/f minority interest (135.0) (20.0) 179.0 (120.0) (96.0) (38.3) 91.1 336.1 (63.8) 325.1 (17.6) 96.2 342.3 19.3 440.2
Minority Interest - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Net Income (135.0) (20.0) 179.0 (120.0) (96.0) (38.3) 91.1 336.1 (63.8) 325.1 (17.6) 96.2 342.3 19.3 440.2
Shares, Basic 318.0 319.0 321.0 322.0 320.0 323.0 323.0 323.0 323.0 323.0 323.5 324.0 324.5 325.0 324.3
Shares, Diluted 326.0 325.0 322.0 322.0 321.0 324.0 324.0 325.0 326.0 324.8 326.5 327.0 327.5 328.0 327.3
EPS (Basic pro forma) (0.42) (0.06) 0.56 (0.37) (0.30) (0.12) 0.28 1.04 (0.20) 1.01 (0.05) 0.30 1.05 0.06 1.36
EPS (Diluted pro forma) (0.41) (0.06) 0.56 (0.37) (0.30) (0.12) 0.28 1.03 (0.20) 1.00 (0.05) 0.29 1.05 0.06 1.35
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 52% 51% 47% 50% 49% 54% 56% 64% 52% 58% 54% 56% 61% 63% 59%
Research & Devel. 53% 30% 16% 48% 30% 37% 23% 19% 42% 27% 33% 23% 18% 38% 25%
Sales & Marketing 20% 17% 14% 18% 16% 16% 18% 13% 14% 15% 15% 17% 13% 13% 14%
General & Admin. 12% 7% 4% 10% 7% 9% 6% 4% 11% 7% 9% 6% 4% 9% 6%
Operating Profit -33% -3% 13% -27% -4% -8% 10% 28% -14% 10% -3% 10% 27% 2% 12%
Net Income -22% -2% 10% -20% -2% -5% 7% 20% -10% 7% -2% 8% 20% 2% 9%
Y/Y % Change
Total Revenue 41% 20% 0% -34% 2% 28% 10% -4% 8% 6% 14% 3% 4% 21% 8%
Gross Margin 17% 4% -14% -35% -10% 34% 21% 31% 14% 26% 14% 2% -1% 46% 9%
Research & Devel. 38% 42% -10% 4% 16% -11% -15% 20% -7% -4% 4% 2% -5% 9% 2%
Sales & Marketing 58% 21% 18% -10% 18% 4% 14% -13% -16% -3% 8% -3% 4% 14% 4%
General & Admin. 17% 7% -15% -23% -5% -5% -11% 6% 15% 0% 16% 17% -19% 7% 5%
Operating Profit 96% -144% -36% 588% -153% -71% -444% 97% -43% -355% -49% 6% 2% -121% 37%
Net Income 96% -123% -38% -491% -128% -72% -556% 88% -47% -439% -54% 6% 2% -130% 35%
C Y 2008 M AJESC O
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 C o o k in g M a m a $ 45
2 J illia n M ic h a e ls $ 13
3 C a k e M a n ia $ 3
4 L e f t B r a in R ig h t B r a in $ 3
5 W o n d e r W o r ld A m u s e m e n t P a r k $ 2
6 W ild E a r t h $ 2
7 F u ru F u ru P a rk $ 2
8 N a n c y D re w $ 1
9 Jaw s $ 1
10 P e t P a ls $ 1
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 72
Majesco Entertainment, based in Edison, New Jersey, is a global developer, publisher and marketer of
interactive entertainment software and accessories. In addition to its own proprietary brands such as
BloodRayne, Majesco is a supplier of value-priced Nintendo GBA, DS, and Wii software, and accessories.
Majesco Sales Inc. was incorporated in 1986 in New Jersey. On December 5, 2003, Majesco Sales Inc.
completed a reverse merger with ConnectivCorp, then a publicly traded company with no active operations.
As a result of the merger, Majesco Sales Inc. became a wholly-owned subsidiary and the sole operating
business of the public company. On April 13, 2004, the public company changed its name from
"ConnectivCorp" to "Majesco Holdings Inc." On December 31, 2004, Majesco completed a 1-for-7 reverse
stock split. On January 26, 2005, Majesco completed a secondary offering of 6 million shares at
$12.50/share for $75 million, with about $46 million in company proceeds and the rest to selling
shareholders. On April 11, 2005, Majesco changed its name from Majesco Holdings Inc. to Majesco
Entertainment Company.
VALUATION
Majesco’s recent performance is solid. We continue to believe that Majesco can deliver sustainable profits,
as we have better revenue visibility with an ever stronger game lineup. Majesco has stabilized margins,
aggressively managed expenses, and delivered $0.16 in EPS over the last six quarters. The company’s
focused portfolio of casual titles continues to expand, and we expect it to add one hit title per year to its
current lineup of Cooking Mama and Jillian Michaels. We think there is some potential to expand the Mama
brand.
It is difficult to measure the impact of any potential capital raise. We believe that the company has sufficient
liquidity for its operations, and envision a sale of securities only in the event of an acquisition. We believe
investors should remain focused on Majesco’s continuing profitability. The company has delivered consistent
profits for six quarters, and appears positioned to do so for the foreseeable future.
Maintaining our BUY rating, and $2.50 price target, which reflects a forward P/E multiple of 12x our FY:10
EPS estimate of $0.21. The company appears to be in a position of sustainable profitability, and its liquidity
is much improved.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include negative changes in performance of the company’s
products, access to capital, balance sheet and cash liquidity risks, changes to game release timing, the
effects of competition, changing macroeconomic factors, and changes in consumer demand for video game
hardware.
Total Revenues 18.7 12.8 14.5 18.0 63.9 32.8 20.5 14.2 18.5 86.0 28.8 15.9 16.5 28.9 90.0
Product Costs 7.9 5.8 5.8 9.3 28.9 11.8 7.8 6.2 6.3 32.2 11.4 6.6 6.4 12.0 36.3
Software Dev & License Costs 3.2 2.6 2.5 3.7 11.9 9.1 6.0 3.0 3.9 22.0 5.9 2.3 2.3 6.7 17.1
Cost of Revenues 11.2 8.3 8.3 13.0 40.8 21.0 13.8 9.2 10.2 54.2 17.2 8.8 8.7 18.6 53.3
Income (loss) from operations 2.9 (0.2) 0.6 0.6 4.0 4.7 (1.5) (0.3) 0.9 3.8 3.8 0.2 1.3 1.6 6.9
Interest income (expense), net (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.6) (0.5) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.9) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4)
Other income (expense), net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income (loss) before income tax provision 2.7 (0.3) 0.5 0.4 3.4 4.3 (1.7) (0.4) 0.8 3.0 3.7 0.1 1.2 1.5 6.5
Income tax provision (benefit) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income (loss) 2.7 (0.3) 0.5 0.4 3.4 4.2 (1.7) (0.4) 0.8 2.9 3.7 0.1 1.2 1.5 6.5
Preferred Stock Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shares, Basic 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.9 27.3 27.0 28.5 29.5 30.0 28.7 30.1 30.4 30.7 31.0 30.5
Shares, Diluted 27.4 27.4 27.5 28.0 27.6 27.9 28.9 29.9 30.4 29.3 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.0
EPS Basic (GAAP) $ 0.10 $ (0.01) $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.12 $ 0.15 $ (0.06) $ (0.01) $ 0.03 $ 0.10 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.21
EPS Diluted (GAAP) $ 0.10 $ (0.01) $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ 0.12 $ 0.15 $ (0.06) $ (0.01) $ 0.03 $ 0.10 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.21
EPS Basic (pro forma) $ 0.07 $ (0.01) $ 0.01 $ (0.04) $ 0.02 $ 0.14 $ 0.01 $ (0.01) $ 0.03 $ 0.15 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.21
EPS Diluted (pro forma) $ 0.07 $ (0.01) $ 0.01 $ (0.04) $ 0.02 $ 0.13 $ 0.01 $ (0.01) $ 0.03 $ 0.15 $ 0.12 $ 0.00 $ 0.04 $ 0.05 $ 0.21
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 40% 35% 43% 28% 36% 36% 33% 35% 45% 37% 40% 44% 47% 35% 41%
Product Development 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 4% 8% 8% 4% 5%
Sales & Marketing 12% 15% 16% 12% 14% 13% 16% 16% 21% 15% 14% 19% 18% 16% 16%
General & Admin. 11% 16% 19% 15% 15% 6% 10% 16% 14% 10% 9% 16% 13% 10% 11%
Depreciation and Amortization 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Operating Profit 16% -1% 4% 4% 6% 14% -7% -2% 5% 4% 13% 2% 8% 6% 8%
Net Income 14% -2% 4% 2% 5% 13% -8% -3% 4% 3% 13% 1% 7% 5% 7%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue 29% -12% 44% 51% 25% 76% 61% -2% 3% 35% -12% -23% 16% 56% 5%
Gross Margin 67% -27% 108% 35% 34% 58% 52% -19% 65% 38% -2% 5% 56% 24% 15%
Product Development 48% 30% 51% 42% 43% 44% 40% -1% 2% 20% -15% 21% 63% 33% 21%
Sales & Marketing 33% 1% 11% 23% 16% 79% 67% -3% 77% 54% -3% -6% 36% 18% 9%
General & Admin. -7% -5% 64% 16% 14% -1% -2% -20% -7% -8% 24% 27% -5% 12% 14%
Depreciation and Amortization 5% -20% -21% -60% -33% -10% -20% 69% 28% 13% 45% 45% 0% 0% 18%
Operating Profit nm nm nm nm nm 62% nm -149% 43% -4% -19% nm nm 75% 81%
Net Income nm nm nm nm nm 54% nm -179% 112% -14% -11% nm nm 84% 128%
C Y 2008 M ID W A Y
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 M o rta l K o m b a t $ 70
2 G a m e P a rty $ 30
3 U n re a l $ 17
4 T N A IM P A C T ! $ 9
5 T o u c h m a s te r $ 6
6 B lit z : T h e L e a g u e $ 5
7 N B A B a lle r s $ 4
8 B la c k s it e : A r e a 5 1 $ 3
9 S t r a n g le h o ld $ 2
10 C r u is 'n $ 1
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 147
Midway Games, based in Chicago, Illinois, has been a pure-play, interactive entertainment company since
1998 when it was spun-off from WMS Industries. In June 2001 Midway exited the coin-operated arcade
games business to focus entirely on developing and publishing titles for Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft video
game consoles. Midway key games include Mortal Kombat, SpyHunter, Slugfest, Blitz, NHL Hitz, Gauntlet,
and Defender. Sumner Redstone had owned approximately 88% of Midway until late 2008 when he sold his
entire position.
Because of this, $150 million of Midway notes were now callable by its holders. On February 12, 2009,
Midway filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection due to an acceleration of payment due on its $150 million
convertible notes. In June, Warner Bros. Entertainment made an offer for most of Midway’s assets for $33
million, with completion subject to court approval.
VALUATION
Midway’s value remains uncertain. It has had success with key games (notably Mortal Kombat), though it
has not been able to consistently produce profitable games. We were hopeful that the company will perform
better in 2009 than in 2008, but the departure of Sumner Redstone’s and National Amusements’ support for
the company in December was too much of a challenge for its already fragile balance sheet. Midway cash
position will limit its ability to continue its investment in game development, and presents significant
challenges to its operations.
With continued restructurings and uncertainties due to its bankruptcy filing, Midway’s path to profitability
remains steep; and without better visibility into a return to profitability, we are maintaining our HOLD rating.
We expect the company to liquidate as it completes its bankruptcy.
Risks to the company include changes to investment position of Midway’s shares by the company’s control
shareholder, game release timing, greater than expected deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for
game software, debt level, changing macroeconomic factors, the effects of competition, and bankruptcy
resolution.
Revenue:
Total Revenue 11.1 31.8 36.7 77.6 157.2 29.9 23.4 51.4 114.8 219.6 26.9 28.1 48.2 96.8 200.0
Product Costs and Distribution 6.6 11.1 13.5 25.3 56.4 14.2 11.6 20.6 41.0 87.4 7.6 7.1 13.8 22.3 50.8
Royalties and Product Development 2.7 9.7 24.2 53.8 90.4 17.4 13.2 49.8 37.7 118.1 18.0 11.0 15.0 20.0 64.0
Total Cost of Sales 9.3 20.8 37.7 79.0 146.8 31.6 24.9 70.4 78.7 205.5 25.6 18.1 28.8 42.3 114.8
Gross Profit (loss) 1.8 11.0 (0.9) (1.5) 10.4 (1.7) (1.4) (19.0) 36.2 14.0 1.3 10.0 19.4 54.5 85.2
Research and development expense 7.6 6.4 6.2 5.1 25.4 6.7 6.1 9.2 10.8 32.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 20.0
Selling expense 6.2 8.8 14.2 13.8 43.0 8.6 10.0 15.3 18.4 52.3 7.5 6.2 8.7 16.5 38.8
Administrative expense 5.7 5.2 5.0 5.3 21.2 6.8 5.0 5.2 11.1 28.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 22.0
Restructuring expense (0.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.8) 0.0 0.0 11.7 2.6 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Operating income (loss) (17.0) (9.4) (26.3) (25.7) (78.4) (23.8) (22.6) (60.4) (6.8) (113.5) (17.2) (7.1) 0.7 28.0 4.4
Interest income and other expense, net (2.3) (4.5) (6.8) (8.4) (22.0) (9.4) (11.8) (15.3) (39.3) (75.8) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (48.0)
Income (loss) before tax (19.3) (13.9) (33.1) (34.1) (100.3) (33.2) (34.3) (75.7) (46.0) (189.3) (29.2) (19.1) (11.3) 16.0 (43.6)
Credit (provision) for income taxes (0.6) (0.4) (0.4) 2.1 0.8 (0.8) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) (1.7) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (2.0)
Net Income (loss) (19.8) (14.3) (33.5) (31.9) (99.6) (34.0) (34.8) (75.9) (46.2) (191.0) (29.7) (19.6) (11.8) 15.5 (45.6)
Cum. Dividend on Pref. Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shares, Basic 91.0 91.1 91.2 91.4 91.2 91.4 91.6 91.6 91.6 91.6 91.7 91.8 91.9 92.0 91.9
Shares, Diluted 92.6 92.6 92.6 92.6 92.3 92.6 92.7 93.2 93.3 93.0 93.4 93.5 93.6 93.7 93.6
EPS Basic (GAAP) $ (0.22) $ (0.16) $ (0.37) $ (0.35) $ (1.09) $ (0.37) $ (0.38) $ (0.83) $ (0.50) $ (2.08) $ (0.32) $ (0.21) $ (0.13) $ 0.17 $ (0.50)
EPS Diluted (GAAP) $ (0.21) $ (0.15) $ (0.36) $ (0.34) $ (1.08) $ (0.37) $ (0.38) $ (0.81) $ (0.50) $ (2.05) $ (0.32) $ (0.21) $ (0.13) $ 0.17 $ (0.49)
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Profit (loss) 16% 35% -3% -2% 7% -6% -6% -37% 32% 6% 5% 36% 40% 56% 43%
Research and development expense 69% 20% 17% 7% 16% 22% 26% 18% 9% 15% 19% 18% 10% 5% 10%
Selling expense 56% 28% 39% 18% 27% 29% 43% 30% 16% 24% 28% 22% 18% 17% 19%
Administrative expense 52% 16% 14% 7% 14% 23% 22% 10% 10% 13% 22% 21% 10% 5% 11%
Operating income (loss) -153% -30% -72% -33% -50% -80% -96% -118% -6% -52% -64% -25% 1% 29% 2%
Net Income (loss) -179% -45% -91% -41% -63% -113% -149% -148% -40% -87% -110% -70% -24% 16% -23%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue -28% 23% 34% -20% -5% 170% -26% 40% 48% 40% -10% 20% -6% -16% -9%
Research and development expense -29% -40% -13% -40% -31% -12% -5% 48% 112% 30% -26% -18% -46% -54% -39%
Selling expense -4% -32% 76% -12% 0% 39% 13% 8% 33% 22% -13% -38% -43% -11% -26%
Administrative expense 7% -5% -3% -1% 0% 18% -3% 4% 109% 32% -11% 19% -3% -55% -22%
Operating income (loss) nm nm nm -7285% nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Net Income (loss) 0% 0% 8% -67% nm -1492% nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm
Source: Thomson
Q1 Jun ¥423 ¥350E ¥364E
Q2 Sep 414 368E 381E
Company Description Q3 Dec 700 770E 662E
Q4 Mar 302 312E 234E
Nintendo, based in Kyoto, Japan, is a
Year** ¥1,839 ¥1,800E ¥1,639E
leading manufacturer of video game
Change 10% -2% -9%
consoles and publisher of video game
software. ** Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
C Y 2008 N IN T E N D O
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 M a r io B r o t h e r s $ 761
2 W ii F it $ 407
3 W ii P la y $ 261
4 Pokem on $ 119
5 Z e ld a $ 67
6 A n im a l C r o s s in g $ 54
7 N in t e n d o g s $ 44
8 W ii M u s ic $ 42
9 B r a in A g e $ 39
10 K ir b y $ 26
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 1 ,8 2 0
Nintendo, based in Kyoto, Japan, is a leading manufacturer of video game consoles and publisher of video
game software. The company’s hardware include the Wii (sold over 50 million units to date) and the DS
(sold over 102 million units to date) and its software include blockbuster franchises such as Super Mario
Bros., Pokemon, and Legend of Zelda.
VALUATION
Notwithstanding variances in earnings due to volatile F/X, Nintendo’s recent operating performance has
been solid, and we expect its outstanding performance to continue in FY:10. The lone weak spot for the
company remains Japan. We expect 5% software sales growth in the U.S. and European markets in 2009,
but expect the Japanese market to grow only 2%. The company should be able to dramatically grow
earnings in FY:10 as its mix of sales shifts in favor of high margin software. We have modeled slightly down
revenues, with hardware contributing less and software contributing more than in FY:09, triggering a
material increase in gross margin, relatively flat operating profit, and significant earnings growth (due to
expected lack of foreign exchange losses).
Maintaining BUY, and our ¥43,000 price target, which reflects a forward P/E multiple of 13x our FY:10
adjusted EPS estimate of ¥2,600, plus an estimated ¥9,000/share in cash. We value Nintendo at a multiple
at the low end of its historical range in light of market multiple contraction.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, greater than expected
deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for game software and hardware, the effects of competition,
changing macroeconomic factors, unexpected changes in foreign exchange rates, and slower than expected
consumer demand for video game hardware and software.
Hardware ¥262.2 ¥253.3 ¥450.7 ¥193.6 ¥1,159.7 ¥210.0 ¥212.0 ¥416.4 ¥151.5 ¥989.9 ¥195.5 ¥189.5 ¥341.9 ¥119.0 ¥845.9
Publishing 160.4 159.5 247.6 108.1 675.6 139.3 155.7 351.7 160.0 806.7 167.5 190.6 317.6 114.3 790.0
Other 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.6 3.3 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 3.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 0.5 3.5
Total Revenues 423.4 413.5 699.5 302.3 1,838.6 349.8 368.2 770.1 312.0 1,800.1 363.5 380.6 661.5 233.8 1,639.4
SG&A 60.5 54.4 68.9 54.6 238.4 67.0 70.0 80.3 69.0 286.3 50.0 45.0 70.0 50.0 215.0
Restructuring and Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Costs and Expenses 60.5 54.4 68.9 54.6 238.4 67.0 70.0 80.3 69.0 286.3 50.0 45.0 70.0 50.0 215.0
Income (loss) from operations 119.2 133.0 249.1 53.9 555.3 86.1 91.8 272.3 77.4 527.6 134.6 158.0 276.6 76.1 645.3
Other income (expense), net 57.7 (72.6) (134.0) 42.3 (106.6) 2.0 2.0 12.0 13.0 29.0 10.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 42.0
Extraordinary revenue (expense) 3.6 (1.7) (7.9) 5.5 (0.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income (loss) before income tax provision 180.5 58.7 107.2 101.7 448.1 88.1 93.8 284.3 90.4 556.6 144.6 168.0 287.6 87.1 687.3
Income tax provision (benefit) 73.1 21.2 39.5 35.3 169.1 33.5 35.6 108.0 34.3 211.5 55.0 63.8 109.3 33.1 261.2
Minority Interest 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income (loss) 107.3 37.6 67.7 66.6 279.1 54.6 58.2 176.3 56.0 345.1 89.7 104.1 178.3 54.0 426.1
Shares, Basic 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 128.0 128.1 128.2 128.3 128.1 128.4 128.5 128.6 128.7 128.5
Shares, Diluted 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 127.9 128.0 128.1 128.2 128.3 128.1 128.4 128.5 128.6 128.7 128.5
EPS Basic ¥839 ¥294 ¥529 ¥521 ¥2,182 ¥427 ¥454 ¥1,375 ¥437 ¥2,693 ¥698 ¥810 ¥1,387 ¥420 ¥3,315
EPS Diluted ¥839 ¥294 ¥529 ¥521 ¥2,182 ¥427 ¥454 ¥1,375 ¥437 ¥2,693 ¥698 ¥810 ¥1,387 ¥420 ¥3,315
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 42% 45% 45% 36% 43% 44% 44% 46% 47% 45% 51% 53% 52% 54% 52%
SG&A 14% 13% 10% 18% 13% 19% 19% 10% 22% 16% 14% 12% 11% 21% 13%
Operating Profit 28% 32% 36% 18% 30% 25% 25% 35% 25% 29% 37% 42% 42% 33% 39%
Other / Extraordinary Income (Expense) 14% -18% -20% 16% -6% 1% 1% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 5% 3%
Net Income 25% 9% 10% 22% 15% 16% 16% 23% 18% 19% 25% 27% 27% 23% 26%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue 24% 17% 13% -15% 10% -17% -11% 10% 3% -2% 4% 3% -14% -25% -9%
Gross Margin 29% 31% 17% -25% 13% -15% -14% 11% 35% 3% 21% 25% -2% -14% 6%
SG&A 25% 22% 2% 4% 12% 11% 29% 17% 26% 20% -25% -36% -13% -28% -25%
Operating Profit 32% 35% 21% -42% 14% -28% -31% 9% 44% -5% 56% 72% 2% -2% 22%
Other / Extraordinary Income (Expense) 148% 590% -1473% -52% 200% 3% -3% -8% 27% -27% 500% 500% 92% 85% 145%
Net Income 34% -28% -46% nm 8% -49% 55% 160% -16% 24% 64% 79% 1% -4% 23%
C Y 2008 T A K E -T W O
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 G ra n d T h e ft A u to $ 361
2 N BA 2K $ 60
3 C a r n iv a l G a m e s $ 54
4 M LB 2K $ 49
5 M id n ig h t C lu b $ 49
6 C iv iliz a t io n $ 37
7 B u lly $ 17
8 E ld e r S c r o lls $ 14
9 N H L 2K $ 12
10 T o p S p in $ 9
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 662
Take-Two Interactive Software, based in New York City, is a leading developer and publisher of games for
Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft video game consoles as well as for the PC. Take-Two publishes its products
under its Rockstar Games and 2K (Games, Sports, and Play) labels. Take-Two games include the top three
selling games for the PS2, Grand Theft Auto 3, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, and Grand Theft Auto: San
Andreas. Other key games include Max Payne, Midnight Club, and BioShock. Take-Two also owns a third-
party distribution business, Jack of All Games, which distributes its software as well as third-party software,
hardware and accessories to retail outlets in the United States.
VALUATION
As we look forward to FY:10, we see an impressive lineup, with the two shifted games, reorders of this fall’s
BioShock 2, the release of Max Payne 3, and a likely installment of Grand Theft Auto. We are increasingly
confident in our FY:10 estimate, and expect to see consensus estimates for the out year steadily increase
over the next several months.
We note that the last Grand Theft Auto came out 13 months ago, and if the company chooses to use the
same game engine from the prior version, it could allow 30 months of game development and still release
the next installment within its 2010 fiscal year. Should we be right, we think that consensus estimates will
rise to above the $2.00 level, and we expect Take-Two shares to appreciate dramatically.
Maintaining our BUY and our $11 price target, which is based on a forward multiple of 12x estimated
sustainable EPS of $0.80 (fully-taxed) plus $1.50/share in net cash. This multiple is at the low end of Take-
Two’s historical range, and reflects the company earnings volatility and market contraction.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include performance of the company’s games, levels of
competition, changing macroeconomic factors, changes in consumer demand for video game hardware, and
the ability of the company to attract merger partners.
Publishing $ 122.6 $ 483.4 $ 381.8 $ 242.6 $ 1,230.4 $ 148.9 $ 174.6 $ 115.0 $ 408.5 $ 847.0 $ 181.9 $ 208.7 $ 289.1 $ 620.3 $ 1,300.0
Distribution 117.8 56.4 52.1 80.9 307.1 107.9 55.1 40.0 75.0 278.0 100.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 250.0
Net Sales 240.4 539.8 433.8 323.4 1,537.5 256.8 229.7 155.0 483.5 1,125.0 281.9 258.7 339.1 670.3 1,550.0
Product costs 148.2 185.0 154.4 146.4 633.9 149.9 109.0 72.6 185.1 516.6 132.3 105.4 136.9 229.5 604.1
Royalties & Licenses 15.1 75.5 59.6 35.1 185.3 27.7 24.6 19.0 53.0 124.2 37.0 36.0 37.0 97.0 207.0
Software development costs 22.7 57.7 45.7 43.3 169.4 23.3 28.0 25.0 45.0 121.3 30.0 32.0 35.0 75.0 172.0
Total Cost of Sales 186.0 318.2 259.7 224.8 988.7 200.9 161.6 116.6 283.1 762.2 199.3 173.4 208.9 401.5 983.1
Gross Profits 54.4 221.6 174.2 98.7 548.9 55.9 68.1 38.4 200.4 362.8 82.6 85.3 130.2 268.8 566.9
Operating Expenses:
Income (loss) from operations (33.1) 103.2 59.0 (14.0) 115.1 (50.7) (13.9) (45.6) 88.9 (21.2) (16.9) (7.9) 30.3 136.8 142.3
Interest expense (income), net 0.2 0.8 (0.9) 2.8 3.0 (2.3) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 4.8 4.1 8.1 (1.9) 15.0 2.1 (5.3) 2.0 2.0 0.8 2.0 3.5 2.0 6.3 13.8
Net income (loss) before extraordinary item (38.0) 98.3 51.8 (15.0) 97.1 (50.4) (10.1) (48.6) 86.4 (22.7) (19.9) (12.4) 27.3 129.5 124.5
Net income (loss) (38.0) 98.3 51.8 (15.0) 97.1 (50.4) (10.1) (48.6) 86.4 (22.7) (19.9) (12.4) 27.3 129.5 124.5
Shares, Basic 73.1 75.1 75.9 76.0 75.0 76.1 76.6 77.0 77.5 76.8 77.5 77.5 77.9 78.4 77.8
Shares, diluted 75.0 76.0 77.0 76.9 75.9 76.9 77.0 77.4 77.8 77.3 77.8 77.8 78.3 78.3 78.0
EPS Basic (GAAP) $ (0.52) $ 1.31 $ 0.68 $ (0.20) $ 1.29 $ (0.66) $ (0.13) $ (0.63) $ 1.12 $ (0.30) $ (0.26) $ (0.16) $ 0.35 $ 1.65 $ 1.60
EPS Diluted (GAAP) $ (0.51) $ 1.29 $ 0.67 $ (0.19) $ 1.28 $ (0.66) $ (0.13) $ (0.63) $ 1.11 $ (0.29) $ (0.26) $ (0.16) $ 0.35 $ 1.65 $ 1.60
EPS Basic (pro forma) $ (0.41) $ 1.54 $ 0.94 $ 0.01 $ 2.09 $ (0.52) $ (0.04) $ (0.55) $ 1.19 $ 0.09 $ (0.16) $ (0.06) $ 0.45 $ 1.85 $ 2.10
EPS Diluted (pro forma) $ (0.40) $ 1.52 $ 0.93 $ 0.02 $ 2.08 $ (0.52) $ (0.04) $ (0.55) $ 1.18 $ 0.10 $ (0.16) $ (0.06) $ 0.45 $ 1.85 $ 2.10
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 23% 41% 40% 31% 36% 22% 30% 25% 41% 32% 29% 33% 38% 40% 37%
Research & Development 7% 3% 4% 5% 4% 8% 6% 10% 3% 6% 6% 7% 6% 3% 5%
Selling and marketing 14% 9% 10% 14% 11% 16% 14% 21% 10% 14% 12% 14% 12% 10% 11%
General and administrative 13% 9% 11% 14% 11% 15% 14% 21% 8% 13% 14% 13% 10% 6% 9%
Operating Profit -14% 19% 14% -4% 7% -20% -6% -29% 18% -2% -6% -3% 9% 20% 9%
Net Income -16% 18% 12% -5% 6% -20% -4% -31% 18% -2% -7% -5% 8% 19% 8%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue -13% 163% 110% 11% 57% 7% -57% -64% 49% -27% 10% 13% 119% 39% 38%
Gross Margin -26% 383% 357% 10% 122% 3% -69% -78% 103% -34% 48% 25% 239% 34% 56%
Research & Development 12% 24% 54% 44% 32% 32% 0% -13% 3% 5% -14% 22% 27% 15% 10%
Selling and marketing -4% 63% 22% 39% 28% 21% -32% -25% 11% -8% -14% 16% 25% 34% 16%
General and administrative -3% 22% 36% 27% 21% 27% -36% -32% -10% -17% 1% 4% 6% -3% 2%
Operating Profit nm nm nm -546% nm nm -113% -177% nm -118% nm nm nm 54% nm
Net Income 0% 0% 0% 0% nm 0% 0% 0% 0% -123% 0% 0% 0% 0% nm
Company report and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates restated for stock options
Company Description
THQ, headquartered in Agoura Hills, ** Numbers may not add up due to rounding. **Pro forma.
California, develops, publishes, and
distributes interactive entertainment
software for home consoles, handheld
devices, PCs, and the Internet.
C Y 2008 THQ
Am ount
R ank B ra n d ( $ m il)
1 W W E $ 103
2 S a in t s R o w $ 40
3 MX Vs ATV $ 33
4 W a ll- E $ 25
5 S p o n g e B o b S q u a re P a n ts $ 25
6 C a rs $ 20
7 F r o n t lin e s : F u e l o f W a r $ 17
8 D r a w n T o L if e $ 17
9 P a w s & C la w s P e t $ 14
10 d e B lo b $ 11
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 305
THQ, based in Agoura Hills, California, is a leading developer and publisher of games for Nintendo, Sony,
and Microsoft video game consoles as well as for the PC. Most of THQ’s games are geared toward mass-
market audiences and include recognizable product lines including World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE),
Nickelodeon (SpongeBob SquarePants), and Disney/Pixar (Cars and The Incredibles) games.
VALUATION
THQ has largely completed its restructuring, with considerable reductions in headcount, consolidation of
facilities, reductions in the planned number of titles, and overall lower spending. Its strategic plan is focusing
on fewer titles, with emphasis on fighting games, children’s games, family games and online games. The
restructuring involved the cancellation of several titles and a reduction in annual product development and
corporate spending by approximately $220 million. Recent releases have performed very strongly, with UFC
2009 Undisputed selling over 2 million units, exceeding our estimates, and Red Faction Guerilla received
review scores averaging 87%.
We are maintaining our BUY rating, and $9 price target, which reflects an enterprise value multiple of 10x
our FY:10 free cash flow estimate of $0.70 per share, plus an estimated $2/share in cash. We are using a
free cash flow multiple for THQ because we think that consensus EPS estimates do not adequately reflect
the company’s performance.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, greater than expected
deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for game software, the effects of competition (both from
other publishers as well as from other forms of entertainment), slower than expected consumer demand for
video game hardware, and lower demand for its games.
Net Sales $121.1 $151.6 $385.6 $154.3 $812.6 $175.3 $110.8 $387.1 $146.9 $820.1 $176.4 $138.5 $423.3 $161.8 $900.0
Cost of Sales 56.1 72.7 150.8 58.3 337.9 60.7 37.9 119.6 51.9 270.0 61.4 47.8 133.0 56.9 299.1
Gross Margin 65.0 79.0 234.8 96.0 474.7 114.7 72.9 267.5 95.0 550.1 115.0 90.7 290.2 105.0 600.9
Royalties and Amortization 33.2 53.5 137.7 78.4 302.7 47.0 39.0 105.0 40.0 231.0 50.0 49.0 109.0 46.0 254.0
Interest Income & other 4.5 (2.4) 1.9 (1.5) 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.0
Income before Taxes (47.4) (61.1) (186.3) (93.7) (388.5) (16.3) (23.8) 60.5 (13.0) 7.4 (7.5) (22.5) 67.0 (11.0) 26.0
Income Taxes (14.3) 57.9 (5.8) 8.4 46.2 (1.6) (2.4) 15.1 (1.3) 9.8 (2.3) (6.7) 20.1 (3.3) 7.8
Net Income (33.1) (119.0) (180.5) (102.0) (434.7) (14.7) (21.4) 45.4 (11.7) (2.4) (5.3) (15.7) 46.9 (7.7) 18.2
Shares, Basic 66.6 66.8 67.0 67.1 66.9 67.2 67.3 67.8 68.3 67.7 68.4 68.5 69.0 69.5 68.9
Shares, Diluted 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.3 68.4 68.5 69.0 69.5 68.9 69.6 69.7 70.2 70.7 70.1
EPS Basic (GAAP) $(0.50) $(1.78) $(2.69) $(1.52) $(6.50) $(0.22) $(0.32) $0.67 $(0.17) $(0.04) $(0.08) $(0.23) $0.68 $(0.11) $0.26
EPS Diluted (GAAP) $(0.48) $(1.74) $(2.64) $(1.49) $(6.36) $(0.22) $(0.31) $0.66 $(0.17) $(0.04) $(0.08) $(0.23) $0.67 $(0.11) $0.26
EPS Basic (pro forma) $(0.38) $(0.46) $(0.14) $(0.54) $(1.52) $(0.08) $(0.27) $0.77 $(0.12) $0.30 $(0.04) $(0.18) $0.78 $(0.06) $0.50
EPS Diluted (pro forma) $(0.36) $(0.42) $(0.09) $(0.51) $(1.38) $(0.08) $(0.26) $0.76 $(0.12) $0.30 $(0.04) $(0.18) $0.77 $(0.06) $0.50
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 54% 52% 61% 62% 58% 65% 66% 69% 65% 67% 65% 65% 69% 65% 67%
Royalties 27% 35% 36% 51% 37% 27% 35% 27% 27% 28% 28% 35% 26% 28% 28%
Product Development 28% 15% 6% 15% 13% 13% 20% 7% 15% 11% 14% 17% 7% 15% 11%
Selling & Marketing 24% 28% 18% 13% 20% 22% 19% 13% 20% 17% 19% 18% 14% 19% 16%
Payment to venture partner 1% 1% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2%
General & Administrative 13% 11% 6% 11% 9% 7% 13% 4% 10% 7% 9% 11% 4% 9% 7%
Operating Profit -43% -39% -49% -60% -48.2% -10% -22% 15% -10% 0.4% -5% -18% 15% -8% 2.0%
Net Income -27% -78% -47% -66% -53% -8% -19% 12% -8% 0% -3% -11% 11% -5% 2%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue 16% -34% -24% -29% -23% 45% -27% 0% -5% 1% 1% 25% 9% 10% 10%
Gross Margin 7% -44% -30% -25% -29% 76% -8% 14% -1% 16% 0% 24% 9% 10% 9%
Royalties 26% -12% -22% -3% -12% 41% -27% -24% -49% -24% 6% 26% 4% 15% 10%
Product Development 36% -19% -43% -31% -19% -34% -5% 10% -7% -12% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9%
Selling & Marketing 27% -9% 4% -50% -9% 31% -52% -26% 50% -13% -12% 21% 19% 0% 7%
Payment to venture partner 62% -21% -30% 41% -18% 37% 122% -10% -24% -4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
General & Admininstrative -16% -4% 42% -4% 3% -19% -18% -32% -17% -22% 15% 7% 13% 7% 11%
Operating Profit nm nm -1292% nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 9% nm 428%
Net Income nm nm -1264% nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm 3% nm nm
*Pro forma
Company reports and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates
$33
FYE MAR 2009A 2010E 2011E
10
$28 Revenue (€ mil.) ACTUAL CURRENT PREVIOUS CURRENT PREVIOUS
8
$23
Q1 Jun €169 €98E €128E
6
Q2 Sep 175 140E 160E
$18
4 Q3 Dec 508 647E 670E
2 $13 Q4 Mar 20 315E 343E
Year* €1,058 €1,200E €1,300E
0 $8
J J A S O N D J F M A M
Change 14% 13% 8%
Source: Thomson
T o ta l T o p 1 0 B ra n d s $ 505
VALUATION
Our thesis on Ubisoft has been that the company is well-positioned to deliver meaningful upside to revenue
and earnings in FY:10. In our view, the FY:10 lineup, consisting of Assassin’s Creed 2, Ghost Recon 4,
Splinter Cell Conviction, Avatar, Red Steel 2, I Am Alive, R.U.S.E. and several recurring franchises, has the
potential to generate €250 – 400 million in revenue growth when compared to the FY:08 lineup. That year,
the company had Assassin’s Creed, Ghost Recon, and several family and licensed titles, and managed to
deliver €928 million in revenue and a 14.3% operating profit (before stock options expense). In our view,
Ubisoft’s FY:10 lineup has the potential to generate between €1.2 – 1.33 billion in revenue.
We note that most of its major FY:10 games (Assassin’s Creed 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, and Avatar)
showed very well at the E3 Expo, and have the potential to exceed our estimates though we believe the
back end loaded revenue profile may limit upside to guidance.
We are maintaining our BUY rating, and our €21 price target, which reflects a forward P/E multiple of 18.5x
our FY:11 adjusted EPS estimate of €1.02 plus €2/share in cash. Ubisoft shares have historically traded at a
forward multiple of 24 – 30x, and our target reflects a premium of 20% to the S&P 500 multiple, well below
its historical 25 – 50% premium to reflect recent industry weakness.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, greater than expected
deterioration of the average selling price (ASP) for game software, the effects of competition, foreign
exchange changes, and lower than expected consumer demand for video game hardware.
Total Revenues 169.0 175.5 507.8 205.6 344.5 713.4 1,057.9 98.1 140.3 646.9 314.8 238.4 961.6 1,200.0 127.5 160.1 669.8 342.6 287.6 1,012.4 1,300.0
Cost of Revenues 142.9 275.5 418.4 94.6 341.8 436.4 110.8 359.0 469.8
Gross Profits 201.6 437.9 639.5 143.7 619.8 763.5 176.8 653.3 830.1
Product Development 60.7 185.6 246.3 80.0 250.0 330.0 90.0 260.0 350.0
Sales & Marketing 107.9 96.3 204.2 60.0 155.0 215.0 65.0 164.0 229.0
G&A 0.0 60.2 60.2 25.0 45.0 70.0 30.0 50.0 80.0
Depreciation and Amortization 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Restructuring and Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Costs and Expenses 168.6 342.2 510.8 165.0 450.0 615.0 185.0 474.0 659.0
Interest income (expense), net 1.7 (0.8) 0.9 2.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 4.0
Other income (expense), net 10.2 (14.4) (4.2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income (loss) before income tax provision 36.8 71.8 108.6 (27.3) 162.8 135.5 (14.2) 172.3 158.1
Income tax provision (benefit) 12.7 27.1 39.8 (9.5) 57.0 47.4 (5.0) 60.3 55.3
Net income (loss) 24.1 44.7 68.8 (17.7) 105.8 88.1 (9.2) 112.0 102.8
Shares, Basic 93.4 94.4 93.9 95.4 96.4 95.9 95.4 96.4 95.9
Shares, Diluted 99.2 96.0 97.2 96.5 97.0 96.8 97.5 98.0 97.8
EPS Basic (GAAP) € 0.26 € 0.47 € 0.73 (€ 0.19) € 1.10 € 0.92 (€ 0.10) € 1.16 € 1.07
EPS Diluted (GAAP) € 0.24 € 0.47 € 0.71 (€ 0.18) € 1.09 € 0.91 (€ 0.09) € 1.14 € 1.05
EPS Basic (w/o stock comp) € 0.32 € 0.54 € 0.86 (€ 0.13) € 1.16 € 1.04 (€ 0.04) € 1.23 € 1.20
EPS Diluted (w/o stock comp) € 0.30 € 0.53 € 0.83 (€ 0.13) € 1.16 € 1.03 (€ 0.04) € 1.21 € 1.17
Percentage Analysis
% of Sales
Gross Margin 58.5% 61.4% 60.5% 60.3% 64.5% 63.6% 61.5% 64.5% 63.9%
Product Development 18% 26% 23% 34% 26% 28% 31% 26% 27%
Sales & Marketing 31% 14% 19% 25% 16% 18% 23% 16% 18%
G&A 0% 8% 6% 10% 5% 6% 10% 5% 6%
Depreciation and Amortization 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Operating Income (w/o stock option) 9.6% 13.4% 12.2% -8.9% 17.7% 12.4% -2.8% 17.7% 13.2%
Net Income 7% 6% 7% -7% 11% 7% -3% 11% 8%
Y/Y % Change
Revenue 26% 38% 13% -5% 32% 7% 14% -42% -20% 27% 53% -31% 35% 13% 14% 4% 9% 21% 21% 5% 8%
Gross Margin 20% -2% 4% -29% 42% 19% 23% 5% 9%
Product Development -25% 1% -7% 32% 35% 34% 13% 4% 6%
Sales & Marketing 40% -32% -7% -44% 61% 5% 8% 6% 7%
Operating Income (w/o stock option) 261% -23% -3% -165% 77% 15% nm 6% 15%
Net Income -21% -44% -37% -174% 136% 28% nm 6% 17%
Best Buy is a specialty retailer of consumer electronics, home office products, entertainment software,
appliances and related services under multiple brand names throughout the world. These include:
-923 U.S. Best Buy stores in 49 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico that averaged
approximately 39,700 retail square feet.
-19 Pacific Sales stores in California that averaged approximately 34,000 retail square feet.
-12 Magnolia Audio Video stores in California, Oregon and Washington that averaged approximately 11,600
retail square feet..
-Nine Best Buy Mobile stand-alone stores in New York and North Carolina that averaged approximately
1,400 retail square feet.
-Seven Geek Squad stand-alone stores in California, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota and Texas that
averaged approximately 2,000 retail square feet.
-121 Future Shop stores throughout all of Canada's provinces and 51 Canada Best Buy stores in seven
provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan.
-160 Five Star stores in seven of China's 34 provinces and one China Best Buy store in Shanghai
VALUATION
We continue to believe that Best Buy’s earnings leverage is under-appreciated by the Street. The company
not only continues to gain market share, but is controlling costs extremely well. SG&A spend is expected to
be roughly flat with last year, despite a major integration of Best Buy Europe and continued store expansion.
Even on a disappointing comp number, gross margins in the company’s core domestic business expanded
70 bps vs. last year and pro forma EPS was roughly flat with a year ago. In other words, while facing
formidable internal and external challenges, the company has managed to earn roughly the same amount of
money as it did during better times.
Maintaining our HOLD rating and $40 price target. Our price target reflects a P/E multiple of just under 12.0x
our FY 2011 (calendar 2010) EPS estimate of $3.40, slightly lower than the company’s historical 13 – 15x
multiple to account for market contraction.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to the macroeconomic outlook, variability in
new product release timing, the effects of competition from other consumer electronic and big-box retailers
and changes in consumer demand for consumer electronics.
BBY Domestic COGS 25,170 5,633 6,107 6,197 8,513 26,450 5,637 6,156 6,331 8,932 27,055 29,010
BBY International COGS 5,308 1,224 1,313 2,442 2,588 7,566 1,901 2,047 2,424 2,693 9,065 9,927
Total cost of revenue 30,478 6,857 7,420 8,639 11,101 34,016 7,538 8,203 8,755 11,624 36,120 38,937
Gross profit 9,545 2,133 2,381 2,861 3,623 10,999 2,557 2,787 2,894 3,797 12,035 13,018
Consolidated gross margin 23.8% 23.7% 24.3% 24.9% 24.6% 24.4% 25.3% 25.4% 24.8% 24.6% 25.0% 25.1%
Domestic SG&A 6,163 1,544 1,711 1,714 1,750 6,719 1,560 1,740 1,743 1,801 6,844 7,275
International SG&A 1,224 312 331 873 749 2,265 649 709 832 812 3,002 3,282
Total selling, general & admin 7,387 1,856 2,042 2,587 2,499 8,984 2,209 2,449 2,575 2,613 9,846 10,557
Consolidated SG&A margin 18.5% 20.6% 20.8% 22.5% 17.0% 20.0% 21.9% 22.3% 22.1% 16.9% 20.4% 20.3%
BBY Domestic op income, adj 1,995 277 315 283 1,025 1,901 328 335 300 1,079 2,042 2,281
BBY International op income, adj 163 0 24 (9) 99 114 20 3 20 105 147 179
Total operating income 2,158 277 339 274 1,124 2,015 348 338 319 1,184 2,189 2,460
Consoldiated operating margin 5.4% 3.1% 3.5% 2.4% 7.6% 4.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 7.7% 4.5% 4.7%
Provision for income taxes 815 106 122 68 378 674 126 113 112 437 788 923
Minority interests (3) (11) (17) (31) 0 (3) (3) (17) (23) (31)
Equity in earnings (loss) of affiliates 6 2 8 (3) (3) 3 3 0 12
Net Income - pro forma 1,411 179 202 52 570 1,004 153 178 182 724 1,238 1,462
Basic Shares 440.0 411.4 412.1 412.9 413.6 412.5 415.2 416.2 416.7 417.2 416.3 418.2
Diluted Shares 452.5 423.4 423.3 422.6 423.2 423.1 425.7 426.7 427.5 428.0 427.0 429.5
Basic EPS (GAAP) 3.21 0.44 0.49 0.13 1.38 2.43 0.37 0.43 0.44 1.74 2.97 3.50
Diluted EPS (GAAP) 3.12 0.42 0.48 0.13 1.35 2.38 0.36 0.42 0.43 1.69 2.90 3.40
Diluted EPS (pro forma) 3.12 0.43 0.48 0.35 1.61 2.87 0.42 0.46 0.43 1.69 3.00 3.40
Comps FY 2008 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 FY 2009 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 FY 2010 FY 2011
Domestic comps 1.9% 3.5% 5.3% -6.3% -4.8% -1.3% -4.9% -5.0% -1.0% 1.5% -1.9% 2.7%
International comps 9.0% 4.7% -1.0% 0.3% -5.3% -0.9% -13.9% -7.0% -3.0% 2.5% -3.1% 2.9%
Total comp-store sales 2.9% 3.7% 4.2% -5.3% -4.9% -1.0% -6.2% -5.3% -1.6% 1.7% -2.1% 2.7%
Income Statement Ratios FY 2008 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 FY 2009 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 FY 2010 FY 2011
BBY Domestic
Gross margin 24.5% 24.4% 24.9% 24.4% 24.6% 24.6% 25.1% 25.2% 24.4% 24.4% 24.7% 24.8%
SG&A margin 18.5% 20.7% 21.0% 20.9% 15.5% 19.2% 20.7% 21.1% 20.8% 15.3% 19.0% 18.9%
Operating margin 6.0% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 9.1% 5.4% 4.4% 4.1% 3.6% 9.1% 5.7% 5.9%
BBY International
Gross margin 20.7% 20.4% 21.3% 26.1% 24.7% 23.9% 26.0% 25.8% 26.0% 25.4% 25.8% 25.9%
SG&A margin 18.3% 20.3% 19.8% 26.4% 21.8% 22.8% 25.3% 25.7% 25.4% 22.5% 24.6% 24.5%
Operating margin 2.4% 0.0% 1.5% -0.3% 2.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 1.2% 1.3%
CONSOLIDATED
Gross margin 23.8% 23.7% 24.3% 24.9% 24.6% 24.4% 25.3% 25.4% 24.8% 24.6% 25.0% 25.1%
SG&A margin 18.5% 20.6% 20.8% 22.5% 17.0% 20.0% 21.9% 22.3% 22.1% 16.9% 20.4% 20.3%
Operating margin 5.4% 3.1% 3.5% 2.4% 7.6% 4.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 7.7% 4.5% 4.7%
Net margin 3.5% 2.0% 2.1% 0.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 4.7% 2.6% 2.8%
Tax Rate 36.6% 37.2% 37.3% 54.4% 39.2% 39.6% 44.7% 38.0% 38.0% 37.2% 38.5% 38.4%
Blockbuster, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is the largest specialty retailer of rentable DVDs and video
games in the world. The company has approximately 7,000 company operated and franchised stores in 28
countries. Blockbuster’s customer transaction database contains more than 51 million U.S. and Canadian
household member accounts. International revenue accounts for about 20% of total revenues. Its Total
Access online rental and Game Rush store within a store video game specialty retailer concept have proven
to be growth drivers for the company.
VALUATION
Investment in Blockbuster requires two acts of faith: first, investors must believe that this management team
has sufficient control over the company’s cost structure to deliver on its promises to generate over $300
million of EBITDA annually and to repay debt aggressively; and second, investors must believe that the
rental industry is not in a death spiral that will cause Blockbuster’s revenues to decline at a rate that cannot
be saved by aggressive cost cutting. We are confident that the first act of faith is well-placed; we are less
confident about the second, given the precipitous decline in same store sales during the first quarter, but we
agree that the theatrical release schedule was sufficiently strong to drive improving comps in the middle part
of the year.
Maintaining STRONG BUY, and our 12-month price target of $2.50, which reflects an EV/EBITDA multiple of
4x our 2009 EBITDA estimate of $320 million. This multiple is less than half of Blockbuster’s historical
multiple, reflecting recent market contraction, credit concerns and execution risks.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to movie release timing, the effects of
competition (both from other video rental companies and other forms of entertainment), greater than
expected weakness in consumer demand for video rentals, online subscriber attrition, and debt repayment
risk.
Rental revenues 1,076.3 972.3 899.9 917.3 3,865.8 860.7 785.7 779.8 847.4 3,273.5 844.9 765.3 757.0 798.1 3,165.3
Merchandise revenues 309.8 323.8 297.9 457.9 1,389.4 255.5 339.1 337.4 515.1 1,447.2 315.7 325.8 313.8 484.0 1,439.3
Other 8.0 8.4 6.8 9.5 32.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 27.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 22.0
Total revenue 1,394.1 1,304.5 1,204.6 1,384.7 5,287.9 1,122.2 1,130.8 1,123.2 1,371.5 4,747.7 1,166.6 1,096.1 1,075.8 1,288.1 4,626.6
Cost of rental revenues 410.5 397.5 329.3 329.7 1,467.0 314.2 288.4 288.3 311.6 1,202.5 312.5 288.8 287.0 296.9 1,185.2
Cost of merchandise sold 241.9 251.8 232.0 372.7 1,098.4 217.3 253.9 252.5 381.5 1,105.2 232.9 240.3 230.2 351.2 1,054.7
Cost of sales 652.4 649.3 561.3 702.4 2,565.4 531.5 542.3 540.8 693.1 2,307.7 545.5 529.1 517.2 648.1 2,239.9
Gross profit 741.7 655.2 643.3 682.3 2,722.5 590.7 588.5 582.4 678.4 2,440.0 621.1 567.0 558.6 640.0 2,386.7
Selling, General & Admin expenses 596.9 599.6 573.2 519.2 2,288.9 488.4 515.4 501.8 518.4 2,024.0 515.5 489.2 479.8 480.4 1,964.9
Share-based comp 4.2 5.6 2.9 5.0 17.7 5.0 3.0 3.0 6.0 17.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 18.0
Advertising 30.5 31.9 32.4 27.2 122.0 12.4 24.9 23.6 28.8 89.7 25.7 24.1 23.7 28.3 101.8
Depreciation 39.9 37.9 37.1 37.3 152.2 34.8 33.0 30.0 30.0 127.8 27.0 27.0 25.0 25.0 104.0
Interest expenses (income) 18.1 17.9 17.4 17.2 70.6 17.2 21.1 22.8 30.8 92.0 22.5 16.0 19.1 27.5 85.1
Other expenses (income) (0.1) 0.0 (5.8) (9.5) (15.4) (0.4) 0.0 0.0 (2.3) (2.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total non-operating (income)/expense18.0 17.9 11.6 7.7 55.2 16.8 21.1 22.8 28.5 89.3 22.5 16.0 19.1 27.5 85.1
Pretax Income 52.2 (37.7) (13.9) (349.1) (348.5) 33.3 (10.9) (1.8) 64.7 85.2 25.5 6.6 7.0 73.8 112.9
Provision for income taxes 6.8 4.2 3.9 10.7 25.6 5.6 2.0 2.0 11.9 21.5 10.0 3.0 7.0 13.8 33.8
Preferred div and other (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.9) (11.3) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (11.2) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (11.2)
Net Income 42.6 (44.7) (20.6) (362.7) (385.4) 24.9 (15.7) (6.6) 49.9 52.5 12.7 0.8 (2.8) 57.2 68.0
Nonrecurring/noncash adjustments (2.8) (5.8) (5.0) (440.2) (453.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (11.2) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8) (11.2)
Net Income (pro forma) 45.4 (38.9) (15.6) 77.5 68.4 27.7 (12.9) (3.8) 52.7 63.7 15.5 3.6 0.0 60.0 79.2
Basic Shares 191.4 191.9 192.1 192.1 191.8 192.7 193.2 193.7 194.2 193.5 194.7 195.2 195.7 196.2 195.5
Diluted Shares 221.5 222.0 222.5 192.1 193.0 222.8 223.3 223.8 224.3 223.6 224.8 225.3 225.8 226.3 225.6
Basic EPS (GAAP) 0.22 (0.23) (0.11) (1.89) (2.01) 0.13 (0.08) (0.03) 0.26 0.27 0.07 0.00 (0.01) 0.29 0.35
Diluted EPS (GAAP) 0.19 (0.20) (0.09) (1.89) (2.00) 0.11 (0.07) (0.03) 0.22 0.23 0.06 0.00 (0.01) 0.25 0.30
Basic EPS (pro forma) 0.24 (0.20) (0.08) 0.40 0.36 0.14 (0.07) (0.02) 0.27 0.33 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.31 0.41
Diluted EPS (pro forma) 0.20 (0.18) (0.07) 0.40 0.35 0.12 (0.06) (0.02) 0.24 0.28 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.27 0.35
EBITDA
EBITDA (unadjusted) 110.10 18.10 34.80 (304.10) (141.10) 85.10 45.25 54.01 125.20 309.56 75.02 49.65 51.12 126.25 302.04
Adjustments 4.40 9.00 5.40 3.60 22.40 13.30 3.00 3.00 6.00 25.30 5.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 18.00
Adjusted EBITDA 114.50 27.10 40.20 (300.50) (118.70) 98.40 48.25 57.01 131.20 334.86 80.02 53.65 55.12 131.25 320.04
Year-over-Year Changes
Comps 1.4% 9.0% 1.9% 3.7% 3.9% -9.6% -8.5% -2.0% 4.5% -3.9% 10.5% 2.5% 0.8% -1.0% 3.2%
Store unit growth -5.9% -3.3% -4.2% -5.4% -5.4% -5.9% -6.3% -6.5% -6.1% -6.1% -6.0% -5.6% -5.3% -5.4% -5.4%
Net Sales -5.4% 3.3% -2.7% -11.6% -4.6% -19.5% -13.3% -6.8% -1.0% -10.2% 4.0% -3.1% -4.2% -6.1% -2.6%
Gross Profit -2.7% 3.1% -3.7% -14.4% -4.9% -20.4% -10.2% -9.5% -0.6% -10.4% 5.2% -3.7% -4.1% -5.7% -2.2%
SG&A -7.7% -2.7% -3.9% -18.1% -8.2% -18.2% -14.0% -12.5% -0.2% -11.6% 5.5% -5.1% -4.4% -7.3% -2.9%
Operating Income -481.5% -78.3% -60.3% -552.8% 629.6% -28.6% -151.7% -1013.7% -127.3% -159.5% -4.2% 121.1% 24.3% 8.6% 13.5%
Net Income -192.3% -66.4% -58.7% 89.0% -141.5% -39.0% -66.9% -75.4% -32.0% -6.9% -43.9% -127.9% -100.2% 13.8% 24.3%
Price (as of close 6/22/09) 52-Week Range $16.91 – 48.53 ST / LT Debt (mil) $0 / 496
Shares Outstanding 168 million Debt/Capital 9%
$21.96 Insider/Institutional 7% / 90% ROE 22%
Public Float 154 million Cash & Inv/Share $1.37
Rating Market Capitalization $4 billion Book Value/Share $14.42
BUY
FYE JAN 2008A 2009E 2010E
12- Month Price Target EPS($)* ACTUAL CURRENT PREVIOUS CURRENT PREVIOUS
$29 Q1 Apr
Q2 Jul
$0.38
0.34
$0.43A
0.34E
$0.50E
0.49E
Q3 Oct 0.34 0.48E 0.54E
Q4 Jan 1.34 1.68E 1.77E
Year** $2.40 $2.93E $3.30E
P/E Ratio 9x 8x 7x
Change 33% 22% 13%
GameStop, based in Grapevine, Texas, is the largest video game and PC entertainment software specialty
retailer in the United States with over 6,000 stores. GameStop also operates an e-commerce web site under
the name www.gamestop.com/www.ebgames.com and publishes Game Informer, one of the industry’s most
popular video game magazines in the U.S. with a subscriber base of over three million.
In October 2005, GameStop completed its acquisition of Electronics Boutique for $1.7 billion in cash and
stock. Prior to the merger, Electronics Boutique was the second largest specialty retailers of video game and
PC entertainment software, with over 2,200 stores worldwide.
VALUATION
We find GameStop a compelling investment at these levels. We do not think that the end is near, and think
that the company is in a good position to grow its used business by compressing the time between new
game releases and when it is willing to offer trade-in credits for used games. By so doing, GameStop can
drive used game pricing higher, and will drive its gross profits correspondingly higher.
In our view, GameStop can grow earnings through used game growth. With higher pricing comes
disproportionate growth, higher gross profits, and higher EPS. We think that the used business can grow at
a 20% rate for several more years.
Maintaining BUY, and our $29 price target, which reflects a multiple of 8.7x our FY:10 EPS estimate of
$3.30. This multiple is a 30% discount to the S&P 500 forward multiple, reflecting slowing comp growth,
recent market multiple contraction, and a higher likelihood of digital distribution.
Risks to attainment of our share price target include changes to game release timing, the effects of
competition, limited supply of video game products, and slower than expected consumer demand for video
game hardware and software.
Total revenue 1,813.6 1,804.4 1,695.7 3,492.1 8,805.9 1,980.8 1,815.6 1,899.4 3,704.5 9,400.3 2,069.9 1,920.2 1,961.0 3,834.5 9,785.6
Cost of sales 1,340.2 1,320.3 1,222.3 2,652.9 6,535.8 1,438.6 1,306.2 1,365.4 2,751.2 6,861.5 1,503.9 1,374.2 1,405.8 2,843.6 7,127.5
Gross profit 473.4 484.1 473.4 839.2 2,270.1 542.1 509.4 534.0 953.3 2,538.8 566.0 546.0 555.2 990.9 2,658.1
Selling, General & Admin expenses 316.9 339.4 326.9 426.3 1,409.6 367.8 361.3 349.5 452.0 1,530.6 382.9 364.8 358.9 467.8 1,574.4
Depreciation & Amortization 34.8 36.3 35.8 38.1 145.0 37.8 39.0 39.0 39.0 154.8 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 156.0
Stock-based comp 11.8 8.3 8.8 7.0 35.9 8.0 8.3 9.4 10.4 36.1 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.8 35.9
Restructuring & Other Charges 16.6 (12.0) 4.6 0.0 0.0
Pretax Income 99.1 90.9 76.5 367.5 634.0 113.9 90.3 125.7 441.5 771.3 130.7 128.0 142.9 468.4 869.9
Provision for income taxes 37.0 33.7 29.9 135.2 235.7 43.5 32.5 45.2 158.9 280.2 47.0 46.1 51.5 168.6 313.2
Net Income 62.1 57.2 46.7 232.3 398.3 70.4 57.8 80.4 282.5 491.2 83.6 81.9 91.5 299.8 556.8
Nonrecurring expense/(income), after tax (2.3) 0.0 (10.5) 8.2 (4.6) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income (pro forma) 64.4 57.2 57.1 224.2 402.9 72.2 57.8 80.4 282.5 493.0 83.6 81.9 91.5 299.8 556.8
Basic Shares 161.8 163.4 163.7 163.8 163.2 164.5 164.6 164.8 165.0 164.7 165.1 165.2 165.4 165.6 165.3
Diluted Shares 167.4 168.1 168.0 167.2 167.7 168.0 168.1 168.3 168.5 168.2 168.6 168.7 168.9 169.1 168.8
Basic EPS (GAAP) 0.38 0.35 0.29 1.42 2.44 0.43 0.35 0.49 1.71 2.98 0.51 0.50 0.55 1.81 3.37
Diluted EPS (GAAP) 0.37 0.34 0.28 1.39 2.38 0.42 0.34 0.48 1.68 2.92 0.50 0.49 0.54 1.77 3.30
Basic EPS (pro forma) 0.40 0.35 0.35 1.37 2.47 0.44 0.35 0.49 1.71 2.99 0.51 0.50 0.55 1.81 3.37
Diluted EPS (pro forma) 0.38 0.34 0.34 1.34 2.40 0.43 0.34 0.48 1.68 2.93 0.50 0.49 0.54 1.77 3.30
Year-over-Year Changes
Comps 27.1% 20.0% -1.8% 9.6% 12.3% -1.5% -9.0% 2.8% 2.5% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0%
Store unit growth 13.2% 12.2% 12.2% 17.9% 17.9% 14.5% 14.4% 12.4% 4.7% 4.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4%
Net Sales 41.8% 34.8% 5.2% 21.9% 24.1% 9.2% 0.6% 12.0% 6.1% 6.7% 4.5% 5.8% 3.2% 3.5% 4.1%
Cost of goods sold 44.1% 35.2% 2.6% 21.6% 23.8% 7.3% -1.1% 11.7% 3.7% 5.0% 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9%
Gross Profit 35.7% 34.0% 12.8% 22.7% 25.2% 14.5% 5.2% 12.8% 13.6% 11.8% 4.4% 7.2% 4.0% 3.9% 4.7%
SG&A 26.7% 24.9% 15.8% 21.5% 22.0% 16.1% 6.4% 6.9% 6.0% 8.6% 4.1% 1.0% 2.7% 3.5% 2.9%
Depreciation&Amortization 12.2% 13.0% 6.1% 14.0% 11.3% 8.6% 7.4% 9.0% 2.4% 6.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Operating Income 81.3% 97.2% -11.9% 29.6% 34.6% 16.9% 0.7% 59.5% 19.0% 21.1% 5.6% 32.8% 8.8% 5.0% 9.1%
Net Income 122.7% 147.4% 5.1% 18.1% 36.0% 12.1% 1.1% 40.8% 26.0% 22.4% 15.8% 41.7% 13.7% 6.1% 12.9%
Diluted EPS 114.6% 142.5% 4.1% 17.9% 33.7% 11.7% 1.1% 40.5% 25.1% 22.0% 15.3% 41.2% 13.3% 5.7% 12.5%
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Gameloft (GFT.FP)
Price (as of close 6/22/09) 52-Week Range €1.26–3.80 Revenues FY:08 (Dec) €110 million
€2.77 Shares Outstanding 71 million
Market Capitalization €197 million
Rating
Not Rated
12- Month Price Target
N/A
Company Description
Gameloft, founded in 1999, is a leading international publisher and
developer of video games for mobile phones. Ubisoft Entertainment owns
approximately 10% of Gameloft. Gameloft shares trade primarily on the
Euronext Stock exchange.
Source: Yahoo!
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Price (as of close 6/22/09) 52-Week Range $0.22–$5.16 Revenues FY:08 (Dec) $90 million
$1.13 Shares Outstanding 30 million
Not Rated
12- Month Price Target
Company Description
N/A
Glu, based in San Mateo, California, is a leading global publisher of mobile
games. Founded in 2001, its games includes original titles Super K.O.
Boxing!, Stranded and the Ancient Empires franchise, and titles based on
major brands from Atari, Harrah's, Hasbro, Microsoft, PlayFirst, PopCap
Games, SEGA and Sony.
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Company Description
GRAVITY Co. Ltd., based in Seoul, Korea, develops and distributes online
games in Korea and other Asian countries. Its key product is the MMORG
Ragnarok Online. The company also offers various mobile games;
participates in the production of a televised animation series; and licenses
Source: Nasdaq.com characters-related products. GRAVITY shares trade primarily in the U.S.
One-Year Price Chart with American Depositary Shares (each representing 0.25 ordinary share).
Konami (KNM)
Price (as of close 6/22/09) 52-Week Range $12.77–$35.60 Revenues FY:09 (Mar) $3 billion
$18.77 Shares Outstanding 137 million
Rating Market Capitalization $3 billion
Not Rated
12- Month Price Target
N/A
Company Description
Konami, based in Tokyo, Japan, produces video game software for home
consoles, game machines for amusement arcades and other entertainment
venues and other amusement-related products, and operation of health
and fitness club facilities. Key video game franchises include Metal Gear
Solid, Castlevania, Silent Hill, Frogger, Yu-Gi-Oh!, and Dance Dance
Revolution. Konami shares trade primarily on the Tokyo Stock Exchange
with ADS (each representing one ordinary share) in the U.S.
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Microsoft (MSFT)
NCsoft (036570.KS)
Company Description
NCsoft, based in Seoul, Korea, is the leading Korean online game
company with branches in North America, Japan, China, and Taiwan. The
Source: KOREA EXCHANGE company's key title Lineage, a massively multiplayer online role-playing
One-Month Price Chart game (MMORPG), has over three million subscribers in Asia. Other titles
include City of Heroes, Lineage II, and Guild Wars. NCsoft shares trade
primarily on the Korea Exchange.
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
SONY (SNE)
Company Description
SouthPeak Interactive, based in Midlothian, Virginia, develops and
publishes interactive entertainment software for all current hardware
platforms. In October 2008, the company acquired video game developer
Gamecock Media Group.
Source: Nasdaq.com
One-Year Price Chart
Vivendi (VIV.FP)
Price (as of close 6/22/09)
€17.36 52-Week Range €16.32–27.39 Revenues FY:08 (Dec) €25 billion
Company Description
Vivendi SA, based in Paris, France is a French media conglomerate with
activities in music, television and film, publishing, telecommunications, and
video games. In July 2008, Vivendi merged its video game business with
Activision to create Activision Blizzard (whom it holds a 52% interest).
Vivendi’s video game business accounts for about 8% of its total revenues.
Source: Yahoo!
Vivendi’s shares trade primarily on the Euronext Stock exchange.
One-Year Price Chart
Webzen (WZEN)
Nintendo (MP) 7974.JP Mar Buy ¥43,000 ¥25,850 ¥22,000 ¥36,800 128.0 ¥3,309 ¥2,000 ¥2,693 ¥3,315 9.6x 7.8x ¥2,593 ¥3,215 6.0x 4.9x ¥1,800 ¥1,639
Ubisoft Entertainment (MP) UBI.FP Mar Buy € 21 € 16.58 € 9.66 € 35.50 99.0 € 1,641 € 1,569 € 0.74 € 0.91 22.4x 18.2x € 0.71 € 0.88 22.3x 18.0x 1,200 1,250
Entertainment Retailers
Best Buy (MP) BBY Feb Hold $40 $33.58 $16.42 $48.99 425.7 14,295 15,944 $3.00 $3.40 11.2x 9.9x $3.00 $3.40 12.5x 11.0x 48,155 51,955
Gamestop (MP) GME Jan Buy $29 $22.17 $16.91 $48.53 167.2 3,707 3,973 $3.00 $3.30 7.4x 6.7x $3.12 $3.42 7.6x 6.9x 9,489 9,786
RadioShack (MP) RSH Dec Hold $12 $13.74 $6.47 $19.90 125.2 1,720 1,547 $1.39 $1.40 9.9x 9.8x $1.39 $1.40 8.9x 8.8x 4,267 4,225
Netflix (MP) NFLX Dec Buy $48 $40.37 $17.90 $50.24 60.7 2,450 2,163 $1.83 $2.20 22.1x 18.4x $1.80 $2.17 19.8x 16.4x 1,782 2,031
Blockbuster (MP) BBI Dec Str Buy $2.50 $0.62 $0.13 $3.19 192.0 119 1,043 $0.23 $0.35 2.7x 1.8x $0.55 $0.67 9.9x 8.1x 4,792 4,627
Price Price 52 Week Range Diluted Market Enterprise EPS P/E Adj. EBITDA EV / EBITDA
Movies and Entertainment FYE Rating Target 6/26/09 Low High Shares Cap Value (EV) FY 09 FY 10 FY 09 FY 10 FY 09 FY 10 FY 09 FY 10
Cinemark Holdings (CW) CNK Dec Hold $12 $10.83 $6.73 $16.30 109.6 1,187 2,565 $0.77 $0.88 14.1x 12.3x 409 431 6.3x 5.9x
DreamWorks Animation SKG (MP) DWA Dec Hold $27 $27.24 $17.32 $32.73 87.2 2,375 2,184 $1.64 $2.05 16.6x 13.3x 241 295 9.1x 7.4x
Marvel Entertainment (MP) MVL Dec Hold $35 $34.67 $22.82 $38.50 78.9 2,735 2,797 $1.38 $2.30 25.1x 15.1x 196 312 14.3x 9.0x
Regal Entertainment (CW) RGC Dec Hold $13 $12.90 $6.72 $20.27 154.1 1,988 3,801 $0.78 $0.94 16.5x 13.7x 576 619 6.6x 6.1x
Warner Music Group (CW) WMG Sept Hold $5.50 $6.17 $1.58 $9.05 154.5 953 2,517 $(0.35) $(0.27) n/m n/m 421 436 6.0x 5.8x
World Wrestling Entertainment (MP) WWE Dec Buy $13 $12.88 $8.76 $18.75 73.9 952 731 $0.64 $0.72 20.1x 17.9x 90 95 8.1x 7.7x
Entertainment: Toys
Hasbro (CW) HAS Dec Hold $25 $24.47 $21.14 $41.68 153.4 3,754 4,344 $1.96 $2.08 12.5x 11.8x 649 677 6.7x 6.4x
JAKKS Pacific (EW) JAKK Dec Buy $14 $13.40 $10.17 $27.12 28.5 382 334 $2.00 $2.25 6.7x 6.0x 90 102 3.7x 3.3x
LeapFrog Enterprises (EW) LF Dec Hold n/a $2.33 $0.80 $10.63 64.1 149 59 $(0.45) $0.20 n/m 11.7x (14) 24 nmf 2.5x
Mattel (CW) MAT Dec Hold $16 $15.94 $10.36 $21.99 359.9 5,737 6,232 $1.23 $1.43 13.0x 11.1x 801 939 7.8x 6.6x
RC2 Corp * (CW) RCRC Dec Hold $15 $13.31 $3.22 $27.09 17.5 233 281 $1.54 $1.50 8.6x 8.9x 63 61 4.5x 4.6x
*Pro forma
Source: Company reports and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates (e), First Call for companies not rated.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Michael Pachter, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I
have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific
recommendations or views contained in this report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
INVESTMENT RATINGS
STRONG BUY – The stock is expected to return at least 20% over the next 6-12 months.
BUY – The stock is expected to return at least 15% over the next 6-12 months.
HOLD – The stock is expected to return between -15% and +15% over the next 6-12 months.
SELL – The stock is expected to decline by at least 15% over the next 6-12 months.
OTHER DISCLOSURES