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1
week1.........................................................................................................................1
Lecture 2.3......................................................................12
Week 2Lecture 2.5.......................................................15
Lecture 2.6......................................................................................20
Lecture 2.7 .........................................................22
Lecture 2.8..................................................................................................24
Three of the most famous techniques ()
Lecture 2.8 3
...
**WEEK 3**
week 3Lecture 3.3......................................................................28
...35
...........................................................................................................................37
**WEEK 1**
week1
uvousbnt 2013-07-29 19:19
wiki
/
//
hindsight bias(wiki)
@
@0.618 ~
(change blindness)
confirmation bias
A,D,4,7
A 7
A 4 A
7
ABA B B A B
A7
@ 0.618
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Behavioural confirmation
Behavioural confirmation is a type of self-fulfilling prophecy whereby people's
social expectations (based more on social beliefs than personal expectation)
lead them to act in ways that cause others to confirm the expectation.
Thin-slicing
WiseGEEK
The term thin-slicing means making very quick decisions with small amounts
of information. The term is most often used in the discussion of Malcolm
Gladwells 2005 non-fiction book Blink, which analyzes the concept of
thinking without thinking.
Malcolm Gladwell
2005
3 6
Nalini Ambady Robert Rosenthal 1992
5
quiz 2
2/350%
XD
quiz
meta-analysis )
8 12
8 20
12 5
7 52 19
118 35
10
193 41
23 19
19
2100
3.9 25.1
6.8
12 11 1
**WEEK 2**
2.1 Attribute theory:the whys and whereforeof behavior
Attribution theory is about how people make "causal attributions", or "casual
explanations" for behavior.
People usually explain behavior in terms of :
1. person- something about the person may have cause the behavior.
2. entity- some enduring feature of the situation or the stimulus.
3. time- something about particle occasion may have cause the behavior.
Lecture 2.3
uvousbnt 2013-08-18 12:38
@@chenwei
LaPiere 251
LaPiere 72 ""
LaPiere
LaPiere
81 47 ,
118 92%59 7%
LaPiere
128
118 9
LaPiere
LaPiere
7
LaPiere
SourceLaPiere.R.T(1934)Attitudes vs.Actions.Social Forces.13,230-237
John Darley Dan Batson John Darley Dan Batson 1973
47
*
*
""
"
"
Allan Wicker 46
file drawer problem
2003
"
"
1980
Sherma Gorkin
77 "
"
5
5
5 80
5
Sherman Gorkin
Sherman Gorkin
3
47
10
10 "
"
10
/(Worm Expectancy/Worm Choice)
/(Worm Expectancy/Shock Choice) *
/ ( Neutral Expectancy Control Group)
Comer Laird
Knox Inkster 7 1
7
3.4
4.8
Knox Inkster 60 2
2012
63
21
36
SP peer assignment
essay professor
scott
*
A
1
empathycompassionhappiness
happiness
D compassionempathy *
* x
scott
US US
outrospection
E SC
participator scott
Lecture 2.6
uvousbnt 2013-08-18 18:02
the psychology of persuasion
lecture
Bill McGuire()McGuire
independent variables
audience
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
1-2%
/
a two-sided appeal XYZ XYZ
building resistance
attitude inoculation
100%
100%
torque
Glamour
2012
fear appeals
Lecture 2.7
Dr.Cialdini
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Cialdini) 6
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Reciprocity
Scarcity
Authority
Consistency
Liking
Consensus
..
20 20%
15%
~
---Lecture 2.8
uvousbnt 2013-08-18 20:35
@Phanto@chenwei
"
"
Cialdini
Ciadini
Cialdini 80%
Causal attributions
50%",
, "
Cialdini ""
""
.""
.""
"foot-in-the-door""
(door-in-the-face)""(low-ball)"
"" Jonathan Freedman Scott Fraser
20 60
""Freedman Fraser
112
"
"
""""
Freedman Fraser
17%
56% 47%
VS VS
Freedman Fraser
""
Daryl Bem
Freedman Fraser
""
"
"
"
?
Cialdini ""
Cialdini
Cialdini
87
"
"
""
Cialdini
63
"
"
7
29 9 31%
24%
"" 7
56% 53% 7
?
""
""""
Lecture 2.8 3
...
**WEEK 3**
week 3Lecture 3.3
2013-08-26 12:40
@@chenwei
group pressureconformity
obedience Stanley Milgram Solomon Ash
90
Candid Camera
Dateline AnthonyPratkanis
SantaCruz 1950 Solomon Asch
A 3
B 6 5
1 6
participant
C 18
12 critical trials
A 60 16 9
B
C
D6
1 1 15
A 1
B 2 14
C 3 32
diminishing effect
2
4 32
68
B 3 1 8
7
Confirmation Bias
ConfirmationBias
ConfirmationBias
D 3."
D K 3 7
K, D D , 3. Peter
Wason 3 3
3 3 D , 3 D
7 D
D 7
///
hindsight bias/hypothetical design/memory design/know-it-allalong effect
Fischhoff (hindsight bias) [1]
19 (Gurkhas)(foresight)
4
4
Fischhoff
1
(hypothetical design) Fischhoff
(memory design)
HertwigGigerenzer Hoffrage[2]
(know-it-all along effect)
[3][4][5][6][7][8]
Christensen-Szalanski Fobian Willham[9] r=0.17
r=0.25
Fischhoff Beyth[10] 1972
Fischhoff Beyth[10]
Davies[11]Davies
Davies
Fischhoff[12]
Hell [8]
(1)
(2)
Hell
2
Hawkins Hastie[13] 4 (1)(2)
(3)(cognitive reconstruction)(4)(motivated
self-presentation)
Fishhoff[12] Wood[14]
2/3
[13,15]
3 (sampling
evidence)(evidence evaluation)(evidence integration)
Slovic Fishhoff[5]
(self-enhancing)(self-serving)
[12]
Campbell Tesser[16]
3
Stahlberg Maass[17]Stahlberg
Mark Mellor[19] 3
3
Mark Mellor[19]
Louie[20] (1)
(2)
CurrenFolkes Steckel[21]
LouieCurren Harich[22]
4
20 80
HIV [23]
1984 1985
---
Harvard
,
Alberta 18
4
Harvard Alberta
David G. Meyers
Teigen
Teigen
Baruch Fischhoff
Baruch Fischhoff
N. Crawford
(:Halo Effect
[]
1
1.1
2
2.1
2.2
3
4
[]
20 20
[]
70 Richard Nisbett
Nisbett Wilson Nisbett Wilson, 1977
[1]
[]
[]
[]
[1][2]
[3]
[]
1970 hindsight bias
[3] 1973 Baruch
Fischhoff Paul E. Meehl
[4]
1970 [4]
[5]
[6]
[6]
knew it all along
1975 "creeping determinism
hypothesis"[3]
[3]
[7][8][9]
[1]
20
[2]
[1] 1904
[2]
1955 20 70
meta-analysis 1976
Nambury S. Raju, Larry V. Hedges, Ingram Olkin, John E. Hunter
Frank L. Schmidt
[]
effect size
[]
PubMed
The term thin-slicing means making very quick decisions with small
amounts of information. The term is most often used in the
discussion of Malcolm Gladwells 2005 non-fiction book Blink, which
analyzes the concept of thinking without thinking.
Gladwell posits that thin-slicing can have its uses or can be a
mistake. If one takes a small amount of information to generalize or
make decisions in whole then decisions may be made that really are
incorrect. However, sometimes a small amount of relevant
information is all that is required to make decisions and act.