University of Southern California

Department of Economics ECON 317 Introduction to Statistics for Economists M. Safarzadeh Fall 2013 email: safarzad@marshall.usc.edu Office Hours: TuTh 11:00 - 12:00, 6:00-7:00 pm and by appointment Office: KAP 116B Course Objectives The primary objective of this course is to introduce students to statistical methods appropriate for analyzing business and economic data. The course will concentrate on the basic concepts of sampling, probability theory, random variables and probability distributions, estimation, hypothesis testing and statistical inference, ANOVA, and an introduction to regression analysis. Every topic studied will be followed by a hands-on practice of the concepts and techniques using real economic and financial data. Course Description The prerequisite for this course is MATH-118 or MATH-125. ECON 317 emphasizes the use of statistics in analyzing business and economic data. Central tendency and dispersion, probability theory, discrete and continuous distributions, sampling theory, sampling distributions, and statistical inference in business and economic related problems, testing hypotheses in large and small samples, correlation and regression are the main topics covered in this course. Course Requirements The textbook for this course is Statistics For Business and Economics , Anderson, Sweeny, and Williams, custom edition, South-Western, ISBN: 0-538-48164-9. This textbook is to serve as the point of departure for lectures and homework exercises, quizzes, and tests. As well, I highly recommend students to have access to Excel and make themselves familiar with the statistical packages available in Excel. Grading Policy The course grade will be computed based on the following table. Class attendance and participation Homework (5 HWs, 2% each) Class project and report Three Midterms (test#1 15%, tests#2&3 20% each) Final Exam 5% 10% 10% 55% 20%

Class Attendance and participation To familiarize myself with your names, each class meeting, I will call the names of a few students randomly. Students who receive three no shows during the random check will lose 5% attendance credit, unless they provide a legitimate excuse for missing the classes that can be documented and verified. You may participate in class activities by answering questions, solving problems on the board, or participating in applied projects. Homework Assignments There will be five homework assignments each worth 2% of the course grade. Completed homework assignments should be returned to me in the class on time. No late HW will be graded. If you miss the HW deadline a score of zero will be assigned to HW. The tests in the mid-term exams and the final exam will be very similar to the homework assignments. Therefore, I highly recommend that you work on the assignments and learn by doing. You my work or consult with other students in doing HWs or course assignments. However, copying other students work is absolutely forbidden. Class Project and Report You are required to work, as a group, on one applied project using statistical techniques learned in this course. The

project will be worth 10 points. The project will concentrate on the application of the techniques taught during the semester to a variable and data of your own interest. You are required to apply the main statistical techniques taught in this course to a real data set downloaded from internet, or collect from data sources. Choose a subject, collect data for the variables, and apply the techniques as the course proceeds. You are required to report a summary of your works and the results as they progress. The idea of this assignment is to do a hands-on practice on statistical concepts. You may start with finding the summary statistics for the variable, find the correlation between the variable and the related variables, do statistical inferences on the variable, and proceed with hypothesis testing or running single and multiple regressions. At the end of the semester, you are required to present the results in the class. Some of the variables of interest are: Inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, interest rate, housing starts, housing prices, stock indices (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P 500), stock prices (Wal-Mart, Dell, Apple, Google, City Group, .), exchange rates (euro, yen, others) and so on. The project is worth 10 points and will be graded based on the quality of the data collection, the quality of the research done, the level of techniques applied in data analysis, your knowledge of the subject matter, and a clear presentation of the subject matter and conclusion. You are required to submit your names and the topic of interest (the variable that you will be working on) no later than the third week of the semester. Midterm Exam There will be three midterm exams during the course of the semester and a final exam. The midterms will be worth 55% of the course grade and will test all the material covered up to the exam. No makeup exam will be given. If you miss an exam for any reason other than medical emergency, a score of zero will be assigned to the exam. If you miss the exam on account of a proven medical emergency, your final grade and other tests will be averaged and will be assigned to the missing midterm grade. Final Exam The final exam will be comprehensive but will emphasize the material covered after the third exam. The final exam will be worth 20% of the course grade. If you miss the final exam for a medical emergency reason that can be documented and verified, there will be a makeup final to be arranged as soon as possible. Otherwise, a grade of zero will be assigned to the final exam. All the exams in this course are closed notes and closed book. Academic Integrity Students are expected to adhere to the students academic integrity that governs students registered at USC. Make yourself familiar with the University Student Conduct Code as described in SCampus 12-13. Where a clear violation of the stated code has occurred, the students work will be disqualified, a failing grade will be assigned, and a disciplinary action will be recommended. The Use of unauthorized material, communication with fellow students during an examination, attempting to benefit from the work of another student, and similar behavior that defeats the intent of an examination, or other class work is unacceptable to the University. It is often difficult to distinguish between a culpable act and inadvertent behavior resulting from the nervous tensions accompanying examinations. Where a clear violation has occurred, however, the instructor may disqualify the students work as unacceptable and assign a failing mark on the paper. (SCampus) Getting Help If you have questions concerning the lecture material or having problem understanding a concept or probably having time for some intellectual chat on an economic or technical issue, please feel free to drop in my office. If my office hours are not convenient for you, call and make an appointment. For short questions, you may e-mail me at safarzad@marshall.usc.edu. Course Outline The following course outline will be followed in a lecture format, but with sufficient flexibility to alter allotted time and emphasis as questions arise. From time to time, class will be conducted on a discussion, problem solving, or lab format. Regardless of which format is employed, questions and comments are encouraged. Preliminary Concepts:

1- Introduction to mathematical concepts 2- Introduction to computer software: Excel & E-Views 3- Introduction to statistics 4- Data sources, data collection, and data analysis Data and Statistics - Chapter 1 1.1 Application in Business and Economics 1.2 - 1.3 Data and Data Sources 1.4 Descriptive Statistics 1.5 Statistical Inference Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Methods - Chapter 2 2.1 -2.2 Summarizing Data 2.3 Cross-tabulation and Scatter Diagrams Descriptive Statistics - Numerical Methods - Chapter 3 3.1 Measures of Location 3.2 Measures of Variability 3.3 Measures of Relative Location and Detecting Outliers 3.5 Measures of Association between Two Variables 3.6 Weighted Mean and Working with Grouped Data

First Exam
Introduction to Probability Chapter 4 4.1 Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities 4.2 Events and Their Probabilities 4.3 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 4.4 Conditional Probability Discrete Probability Distribution Chapter 5 5.1 Random Variable 5.2 Discrete Probability Distribution 5.3 Expected Value and Variance 5.4 Binomial Probability Distribution 5.5 Poisson Probability Distribution 5.6 Hyper-geometric Probability Distribution Continuous Probability Distribution Chapter 6 6.1 Uniform Probability Distribution 6.2 Normal Probability Distribution Sampling and Sampling Distributions Chapter 7 7.2 Simple Random Sampling 7.3 Point Estimation 7.4 Introduction to Sampling Distribution 7.5 Sampling Distribution of a random variable 7.6 Distribution of sample mean 7.7 Properties of Point Estimators

Interval Estimation Chapter 8 8.1 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean: Large Sample Case 8.2 Interval Estimation of a Population Mean: Small Sample Case 8.3 Determining the Sample Size

Second Exam
Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9 9.1 Developing Null and Alternative Hypothesis 9.3 One-Tailed Tests about Population Mean: Large Sample Case 9.4 Two-Tailed About Population Mean: Large Sample Case 9.5 Tests about Population Mean: Small Sample Case 9.6 Tests about a Population Proportion 9.7 Hypothesis Testing and Decision Making Statistical Inference about Means and Proportions with Two Populations Chapter 10 10.1 Estimation of the Difference between the Means of Two Populations: Independent Samples 10.2 Hypothesis Tests about the Difference between the Means of Two Populations: Independent Samples 10.3 Inference about the Difference between the Means of Two Populations: Method Samples 10.4 Inference about the Difference between the Population of Two Populations Inference about Population Variances Chapter 11 11.1 Inference about a Population Variance 11.2 Inferences about the Variances of Two Populations

Third Exam
Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance Chapter 13 13.1 Introduction to Experimental Design and ANOVA 13.2 ANOVA and Completely Randomized Design 13.3 Using Regression in ANOVA Sample Linear Regression Chapter 14 14.1 Sample Linear Regression Model 14.2 Least Squares Method 14.3 Coefficient of Determination 14.4 Model Assumptions 14.5 Testing For Significance 14.6 Using The Estimated Regression Equation For Estimation and Prediction 14.7 Computer Solution 14.8 Residual Analysis 14.9 Residual Analysis: Outliers and Influential Observations Multiple Regression Chapter 15 15.1 Multiple Regression Model 15.2 Least Squares Method 15.3 Multiple Coefficient of Determination 15.4 Model Assumptions

15.5 Testing For Significance 15.6 Using the Estimated Regression Equation for Estimation and Prediction 15.7 Qualitative Independent Variables 15.8 Residual Analysis

Final Exam