FUNDAMENTALS OF INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

inferential statistics drawing conclusions on the population based on the samples.

parametric statistics
examples:
o
z-test
o
t-test
o
F-test in the analysis of variance (ANOVA)
non-parametric statistics
examples:
o
chi-square test
Recall that:

population the target data

sample a subset of population

group size:

A group is considered large if n 30. Otherwise, small.

Z tests are usually used for large groups and t-test for small groups.
*z-tests and t-tests, oftentimes, can perform each others role in inferential statistics. It only differs in setting the critical value.
Remember the Central Limit Theorem.

Two types of tests according to direction

Directional Test (or one-tailed test)
- determines if the sample mean is significantly less or greater than the population mean.
- determines if a group is better or worse than the other.
Non-directional Test (or two-tailed test)
- determines if the sample mean differs from the population mean.
- determines if two groups differ.
*The type of test is determined by analyzing the problem, specifically on the last question. Or is depending on the hypothesis.
Hypothesis assumption
Null hypothesis (H0)
- expresses a non-significant difference between the variable / groups
- carries the equal sign: = for two-tailed tests, or for one-tailed tests.
Alternative hypothesis (Ha)
- expresses a significant difference between the variable / groups.
- carries the inequality sign: for two-tailed tests, and < or > for one-tailed tests.
Level of significance ( )
- the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis.
- a pre-determined value which sets the area of rejection where the conclusion will be based.
- usually values are = 0.10, = 0.05, or = 0.01
- = 1 confidence interval.
Table of critical values for t-test
Table of critical values for z-test:
*Based on the areas under the normal curve.
Two-tailed test
.01
.05
.10

2.575
1.96
1.645

One-tailed test
2.33 or 2.33
1.645 or 1.645
1.28 or 1.28

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING:

1. Analyze the problem to determine the null and alternative hypotheses.
2. Determine the test statistic to be used (z-test, t-test, etc)
3. Compute for the statistic value.
4. Find the critical value.
5. If the obtained statistic value is beyond the critical value, reject H0,
and thus, accepting Ha. Otherwise, Fail to reject H0, thus ignoring Ha.

Given the following research questions, state Ho and Ha and determine whether a one or two-tailed test.
a) Does mean age of onset of a certain acute disease for school children differ from 11.5?
One-tailed test
Two-tailed test
Ho: _________________________________________________________________
Ha: _________________________________________________________________
b)

Is the mean IQ of children significantly above the normal IQ of 100?

One-tailed test
Two-tailed test
Ho: _________________________________________________________________
Ha: _________________________________________________________________

c)

Does the mean speed of 50 cars as checked by radar on a particular highway has a mean of 65 mph?
One-tailed test
Two-tailed test
Ho: _________________________________________________________________
Ha: _________________________________________________________________

d)

Is the mean IQ of the 2nd year UST students below 110?

One-tailed test
Two-tailed test
Ho: _________________________________________________________________
Ha: _________________________________________________________________

e)

Are the patients mean temperature less than 37C?

One-tailed test
Two-tailed test
Ho: _________________________________________________________________
Ha: _________________________________________________________________

TEST of INFERENCE ABOUT THE POPULATION MEAN

- if the researcher wants to determine if the sample if from the specified population

or t

x
s

*t-test for single mean use a degree of freedom (df) which is equal to n-1.

EXAMPLES:
1. Suppose that a researcher has conducted a study to determine whether the weight of 12-year old boys in his town is 80 lbs. He collected
50 samples with a mean weight of 75 lbs. If the population standard deviation is 19 lbs, can he conclude that the mean weight of the 12year old boys in his town is not 80 lbs? Test at = 0.05.
Hypotheses:
Ho:
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Ha:

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Test Statistic:

Critical Value: ________________________

Decision: _______________
2.

Conclusion: ______________________________________________________________

The mean weight of the sample of 40 persons from the Honolulu Heart Study is 64 kg. If the ideal weight is known to be 60 kg, is the
group significantly overweight? Assume = 10 kg and = 0.05.
Hypotheses:
Ho:
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Ha:

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Test Statistic:

Decision: _______________

Critical Value: ________________________

Conclusion: ______________________________________________________________

3.

From a sample of 25 patients, the mean diastolic blood pressure in Honolulu Hospital is 73 mmHg with a standard deviation of 11.6. For
= 0.01, test whether the mean blood pressure of this group is significantly greater than 70.
Hypotheses:
Ho:
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Ha:

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Test Statistic:

Critical Value: ________________________

Decision: _______________
4.

A quality control specialist wants to determine if all the capsules being manufactured has a mass of 500 mg. A sample of 15 capsules
were taken and found a mean of 480 mg with a standard deviation of 27.9 mg. Can the quality control specialist conclude that the mean
mass of all the capsules being manufactured is not 500 mg? Test at 95% confidence interval.
Hypotheses:
Ho:
_____________________________________________________________________
Ha:

_____________________________________________________________________

Test Statistic:

Critical Value: ______________

Decision: _______________
5.

Conclusion: ______________________________________________________________

Conclusion: _________________________________________

The American Medical Association conducts surveys of its member each year. A sample of physicians is selected and asked to report the
amount of time each devotes to patient care each week. The results for the 1997 survey are stored in med-time.xls and as summarized
below.

s
n

= 53.7847
= 4.0507
= 144

Can we infer that the mean amount of time devoted to patient care per week by all physicians exceeds 45 hours? Test at = 0.05.
(Adapted from the American Medical Association, Socioeconomic Characteristics of Medical Practice 1997/1998 and the statistical Abstract of the
United States, 2000, Table 190)
Hypotheses:
Ho:
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Ha:

__________________________________________________________________________________________

Test Statistic:

Critical Value: ________________________

p-value: _________________
Decision: _______________
6.

Conclusion: ______________________________________________________________

The number of Internet Users is rapidly increasing. A recent survey reveals that there are about 30 Million Internet users in North
America. Suppose that a survey of 200 of these people asked them to report the number of hours they spent per day. Results are in
internettime.xls (mean = 6.3515; st.dev = 2.16). Is there a reason to believe that the 30 Million users in North America spend 6.5 hours
in internet surfing per day? Test at = 0.05.
Hypotheses:
Ho:

___________________________________________________________________________________________

Ha:

___________________________________________________________________________________________

p-value:

___________

Decision:

___________

Conclusion: _____________________________________________________________