CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE RISING LATINO ELECTORATE: LATINO INFLUENCE IN THE 2012 ELECTION

______________________________
Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D. Gary M. Segura, Ph.D. Co-founders, Latino Decisions

9/25/13

LD/AV Press Breakfast

(21.9%)
(11.5%)
2

(13.9%) (17.1%)

(19.2%)

(7.9%)

(9.6%)

(6.6%)
(7.8%)

Lessons from California are already playing

out in Nevada,
Colorado and

Arizona

Latino Decisions

Latino Decisions is a partnership of political scientists Gary Segura and Matt Barreto, and Pacific Market Research, a data gathering center headquartered in Renton, Washington.
3

Sylvia Manzano, Ph.D

Gabriel Sanchez, Ph.D.

Director of Operations

Director of Research

Adrian Pantoja , Ph.D. Senior Analyst

Dave Damore, Ph.D. Senior Analyst

Blanca Flor Guillen-Woods Senior Analyst, Director of Evaluations

Justin Gross, Ph.D Chief Statistician

LATINO DECISIONS ANALYTIC TEAM

The LD Difference

Culturally Competent Research;

Performed by Professional, Credentialed, and Published Social Scientists;

Using an in-house call-center with fully bilingual staff; Augmented with a network of state-level experts;

Issues to Consider in Survey Accuracy

Bias from Sampling design

Every person in the universe of analysis should have an apprxomately equal probability of having the opportunity to do the survey; Cell, Language, Clustering, List/RDD, Platform
Do those who agree to do the survey and complete the instrument differ meaningfully from those who refuse? (Call-backs?) Do you have enough Latino respondents to answer your questions?

Bias from Non-Response

Sample Size

Bilingual Interviewing

40% of Latino citizens (25% RVs) foreign born (varies by state); Spanish must be available at first-point of connection; Low numbers of Spanish interviews yields a biased sample: Too assimilated, too native, higher income and higher education; If the Spanish is under 25-30% nationally (varies by state), the firm is very likely using call-backs and the sample is biased.

Immigration reform a priority

With all the different issues Congress must address, how important is immigration reform THIS YEAR?
Extremely/Very important Somewhat important Not too/at all important

Total U.S. Born Naturalized English

78% 79% 78% 78%

17% 16% 18% 17%

4% 5%

4%
4% 5% 2

Spanish
Democrat Republican Independent Prior GOP Voter 58%

78%
83% 25% 80% 73%

17%
15%
17%

16% 19%

4% 7%

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, June 2013 (N=500)

Midterm Latino voter community tied to Latino undocumented community

Do you know somebody who is an undocumented immigrant? Relationship to undocumented immigrants you know
Family 3

Yes 65

No 33
DK 2

Both family and friends 46

Oth 2

Friends 49

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, July 2013 (N=800)

Pathway to citizenship strongly preferred

Increase border security, enforce existing immigration laws, employee verify, pathway to citizenship, background check, study English, and pay fine.
Strongly oppose 9 Somewhat oppose 12

When it comes to legal status and immigration reform, which do you prefer: a pathway to citizenship, or legal status without the possibility for citizenship?
Other/DK 9 Legal status, no citizenship 12

Strongly support 38

Pathway to citizenship 79

Somewhat support 40

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, July 2013 (N=800)

House CIR vote matters to Latino voters

Speaker Boehner said he will not allow a vote unless a majority of Republicans members support it. Should Boehner allow a simple yes or now vote now or, should he wait until a majority of the Republicans agree to support the bill?

House GOP favorability if CIR bill with pathway to citizenship vote not taken vs. if vote is taken
Total favorable to GOP Total Unfavorable to GOP

71
Don't know 8

62
Should put the bill on hold 32

Allow yes/no vote now 60

27 14

No vote

Vote taken

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, July 2013 (N=800)

Republican opening with Midterm voters

Thinking back over all the times you have voted, have you ever voted for a Republican?
Yes No

Even though you may disagree on some issues, if House Republicans support CIR with path to citizenship, would you be more likely to support GOP House candidate?

62 52 44 36

50 32 14

4
More favorable Still oppose towards GOP Republicans Already support GOP It depends

Midterm

Surge

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, July 2013 (N=800)

Steve King: impact on party evaluation

Congress does not have an obligation to resolve the issue of the 11 million people who are here illegally. They came here on their own. They came here to live in the shadows. Theres no moral calling for us to solve the problem they created for themselves. They can easily solve it by just returning to the country where they came from.

67

11

Much more favorable Somewhat more to GOP favorable to GOP

Somewhat less favorable to GOP

Much less favorable to GOP

Who gets the blame if CIR fails?

If CIR is not passed this year, who will be most to blame?
48 38

9
4

Democrats

Republicans Both equally

Don't know

Favorability ratings of 2016 contenders

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 73 17 10

Net +56 +37 +2 -12 -11

80 100

H.Clinton Biden Rubio J.Bush Ryan

0

58

21

21

31

29

40

27

39

34

20
20 40

31
60

49

Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, July 1, 2013 (N=1200)

A Latino Veep on the ticket?

If the Democratic candidate selects Julian Castro as their VP what effect would it have on a Dem vote?

Julian Castro on the ticket = +43

62%

more likely Dem 75% in less likely Dem 19%

Could this put Texas in play?

Texas

Feb

Latinos: 65% more likely Republicans: 25% more likely Ever voted GOP: 52% more likely
Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, June 2013 (N=1200)

A Latino Veep on the ticket?

If the Republican candidate selects Ted Cruz as their VP what effect would it have on a GOP vote?

Ted Cruz on the ticket = -18

31%

more likely GOP 75% in less likely GOP 49%

Most groups are net negative on Cruz

Texas

Feb

Latinos: net 26 GOP Middle class: net 30 GOP Independents: net 5 GOP
Source: Latino Decisions/Americas Voice, June 2013 (N=600)