20.PAUL BOCCARA'S ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM - Tausch

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ArnoTausch*
PAULBOCCARASANALYSISOFGLOBALCAPITALISM. THERETURNOFTHEBOURBONS,ANDTHEBREAKDOWN OFTHEBRUSSELS/PARISNEOLIBERALCONSENSUS

ELANLISISDEBOCCARADELCAPITALISMOGLOBAL.ELRETORNODELOS BORBONESYLARUPTURADELCONSENSONEOLIBERALDEBRUSELASPARS
Abstract Globalization and monopolies lead towards stagnation. Paul Boccara emphasized this since the early 1970s.Someothergreatpoliticaleconomistsoftheinstabilityoftheinternationalorder,likeRosaLuxem burgandOttoBauer,foresawthedarkcloudsofmajorinnercapitalistwarsonthehorizon,andinthelightof ouranalysis,wearenottoofarawayfromsuchdarktimes,ifthelogicofmadnesscalledcontemporary globalizationisnotcorrected.Boccara,overthelastdecades,providedacoherentframeworkofanalysis, whichreachedsimilarpolicyprescriptions,independentlyfromtheSteindl/Kaleckiapproachinpoliticaleco nomy.ABoccaranworldviewwouldholdthatthecontradictionsofglobalcapitalismincreaseovertime,if marketsareleftforthemselves.Boccaraisrightinstressingthatthissystemis,asheputsit,madbecause itslogicofprofitabilityisreachingitsclimax.Capitalismasasystem,whichputsmakingmoneybeforeand against peoplelives,needs tobequestioned.Itisreally futileto speakof moralityandtransparency withoutattackingthelogicofthesystem. Keywords:PaulBoccara,globalcapitalism,economiccycles,economiccrisis,instability,PoliticalEconomy, economicpolicy,EuropeanUnion. Resumen Laglobalizacinylosmonopoliosllevanalestancamiento.PaulBoccaraenfatiz estodesdeprincipios delos70.Algunosotrosgrandeseconomistaspolticosdelainestabilidaddelordeninternacional,como RosaLuxemburgoyOttoBauerprevieronlasnubesnegrasdelasgrandesguerrasintercapitalistasenel horizontey,alaluzdesusanlisis,noestamostanlejosdeesetiempooscuro,silalgicadelalocura llamadaglobalizacincontemporneanosecorrige.Boccara,endcadasrecientes,proporcion unmarco deanlisiscoherentequealcanzabaprescripcionespolticassimilares,perodeformaindependientedel enfoque de Economa poltica de Steindl / Kalecki. La cosmovisin de Boccara sostendra que las contradiccionesdelcapitalismoglobalseincrementanconeltiempo,sialosmercadosselesdejaactuar porsmismos.Aciertaalresaltarqueestesistemaes,adecirde l,locoporquesulgicaderentabilidad est alcanzandosuclimax.Elcapitalismo,queanteponeelhacerdineroalasvidashumanas,necesitaser cuestionadocomosistema.Realmenteesftilhablardemoralidadotransparenciasinatacarlal gica delsistema. Palabrasclave:PaulBoccara,capitalismoglobal,cicloseconmicos,crisiseconmica,inestabilidad, Economapoltica,polticaeconmica,UninEuropea. JEL:B24,B25,B31,E11,E12,E32,E37,H56,P16.
* AdjunctProfessorofPoliticalScienceatInnsbruckUniversity.email:arno.tausch@uibk.ac.at.EFax(++431) 71894701350.Personalacademicwebsite:<http://www.getcited.org/mbrx/PT/99/MBR/10134373>
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hisessaywillfeatureontheglobalrelevanceofthepoliticaleconomyoftheFrench politicaleconomistPaulBoccarafromtheviewpointofquantitativeinternationalpolit icaleconomy.Whyshouldwebeinterestedatallintheworkofanauthor,who,tobe sure,playedsuchanimportantrolenotonlyasanacademic,butalsoasapoliticianforthenow dwindlingFrenchCommunistParty?Politicsandacademicsoftengotogether,andasarecent NATOinspiredvolumeshows,leadingthinkersfromtheWesternsecurityapparatushaveless apprehensionstotouchuponthethemeofKcyclesasmostchairholdersofeconomicsatmajor Universitiesaroundtheworld(seeDevezas,2006,reflectingtheviewsofinternationalexperts onthesubject,gatheredbytheNATOAdvancedResearchWorkshoponTheInfluenceof ChanceEventsandSocioeconomicLongWavesintheNewArenaofAsymmetricWarfarein Covilha,Portugal,1418February2005).ThegreatFrenchscholarPaulBoccarawasbornin Tunisin1932,andheistheauthorofnumerousworksinFrench,GermanandSpanish,andhis academicworkswerewellreceivedinmanycountriesoutsidetheAngloAmericansphere,but thereceptionofhisacademicworksintheEnglishspeakingworldisratherdeficient.Whilethe probabilitytofindBoccarasworksatlibrariesinFrenchspeakingcountriesisoverwhelming, eventheLibraryofCongressinWashingtonD.C.merelylistsonlytenofhisdozensofworks; andtheHollisCatalogueatHarvardUniversityLibrary,alwaysagoodindicatoraboutthe globalmarketpresenceofanauthor,onlylistseightofthem.Inthemajorpeerreviewedsocial sciencejournalsoftheworld,containedintheSocialSciencesCitationIndex,thereareindeed manyscatteredreferencestohiswork,buttheonlyarticle,whichinturnprovedtobeveryin fluentialonthesubsequentwriting(185subsequentquotations),wasJessop,1990.Withtheex ceptionoftheFrenchlanguagesocialsciencejournal,Pense,Boccaraneverevenpublishedin thesemaybeelitistpeerreviewedjournals,whichmightbeoneofthereasonsfortheratherde ficientreceptionofhisworkintheEnglishspeakingworld.Thelimitedworldlibraryoutreach ofhisworkcanbealsoguessedfromsomefigures,availablefromtheWorldcatcatalogue. Hismostinfluentialwork,Boccara,1973/1976,isavailableat118globallibraries,andBoccara, 2008isonlyavailableat24Europeanand9AngloAmericanandPacificregionlibraries.The presentarticlewillshowthatcontemporarysocialscienceshouldpaymuchmoreattentionto theworkofthisscholar,whosetheoriesandhypothesesrenderthemselvesforfurtheranalysis andtestingintheempiricalliterature,andopenimportantperspectivesforthetheoreticaldebate onKcyclesandtheinstabilityoftheworldsystem. ThisisaquantitativeanalysisonthePoliticalEconomyofourTimewhichaimistodrawin ternationalattentiontothefactthatBoccaraspoliticaleconomyispartandparcelofthewider Frenchlanguagedebateontheinstabilityofcapitalismandthelongeconomiccycles(Kon dratievcycles),whichranges,fromthe(former)MaoistSamirAmintotheCommunistBoccara andtheTrotskystErnestMandel(19231995),andwhichisingoodcompanyofawidevariety ofattemptstorevivethedebateonKondratievcycles(Devezas,2006),whichwasaNATOAd vancedResearchWorkshopontheinfluenceofchanceeventsandsocioeconomiclongwavesin thenewarenaofasymmetricwarfareinCovilha,Portugal,1418February2005. WebrieflyputtherelevanceofBoccarasapproachintothewiderandnecessaryperspective ofthemoregenerallongcycledebateandwethenfeaturethehighlightsofBoccarasparticular contributiontotheunderstandingofcurrentglobaleconomicdepression,fromwhichtheworld economyslowlyrecuperates.Weshowinthemainpartofthisessaytheempiricalrelevanceof Boccarasgeneralapproach,usingadvancedempiricalmethodsofeconometricandpolitomet rictimeseriesanalysis.Weconcludebycautiouslydrawingsomegeneralconsequencesfrom
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ourfindings,especiallyforthecurrentdebateonthefutureoftheEuropeanUnioneconomic policies.PaulBoccara,overthelastdecades,providedacoherentframeworkofanalysis,which reachedsimilarpolicyprescriptions,independentlyfromtheSteindl/Kaleckiapproachinpolit icaleconomy,whichwealsointroduceinthisessay(againstthe returnoftheBourbons).A Boccaranworldviewwouldholdthatthecontradictionsofglobalcapitalismincreaseovertime, ifmarketsareleftforthemselves.Boccaraisrightinstressingthatthissystemis,asheputsit, madbecauseitslogicofprofitabilityisreachingitsclimax.Capitalismasasystem,which putsmakingmoneybeforeandagainstpeoplelives,needstobequestioned.Itisreallyfutileto speakofmoralityandtransparencywithoutattackingthelogicofthesystem.Ouranalysis, usingadvancedstatisticaltechniques,alsoreiteratesempiricalresults,recentlypublishedby KorotayevandTsirel(2010)andhasshowninadditionthefollowingthings: 1. liberalandMarxistanalysesofalldenominationsarerightinemphasizingthesevere cyclicalfluctuationsofthecapitalistsystemonaglobalscale 2. thereisaworldpoliticalandworldstrategicswingofsocietalsystem,whichaccompan iestheeconomicupsanddowns 3. andthreethereisastrikingsimilarityinthelogicoftheglobalizedperiodofthesecond halfofthe19thCenturywithourage. Globalizationandmonopoliesleadtowardsstagnation.PaulBoccaraemphasizedthissince theearly1970s.Someothergreatpoliticaleconomistsoftheinstabilityoftheinternationalor der,likeRosaLuxemburgandOttoBauer,foresawthedarkcloudsofmajorinnercapitalist warsonthehorizon,andinthelightofouranalysis,wearenottoofarawayfromsuchdark times,ifthelogicofmadnesscalledcontemporaryglobalizationisnotcorrected. OuraimisfirsttodrawinternationalattentiontothefactthatBoccaraspoliticaleconomyis wellpartandparcelofthewiderFrenchlanguagedebateontheinstabilityofcapitalismandthe longeconomiccycles(Kondratievcycles),whichranges,tobesure,fromthe(former)Maoist SamirAmintotheCommunistBoccaraandtheTrotskystErnestMandel(19231995),andaca demiceconometricianslikeClaudeDiebolt.TherevivaloftheKcycledebatebyNATOexactly raisesthequestionoftherelevanceoflongcyclesfarbeyondthenarrowerbordersofthepolit icaldebatesamonglimitedleftwingcircles(Devezas,2006).Itisperhapsoneoftheparadoxes ofresearchaboutglobalpoliticaleconomythatradicalthinkersoftenfollowupthetrulyinter estingquestions,whichareabsolutelyneglectedbytheacademicmainstream.Theanalysis, providedbyBoccaraonthenatureandrelevanceoftheKcycles,isimpressiveindeedandmer itsfurtherempiricalattention(Boccara,1977,1987a,1987b,1993,2008,2009;Boccara,Tre vioandWeinstein,1983).Butthesadfactofinternationalsocialscienceasastrategyofcom municationisthatmostsocialsciencestudentsaroundtheglobemostprobablywouldnever haveseenthenamePaulBoccara,ifitwouldnothavebeenforthequotationsintheinfluen tialworksbyJessop,1990,andJessopandSum,2006. WewillturntotherelevanceofBoccarasideasbyusingadvancedeconometrictechniques, likespectralanalysisandanalysisofautocorrelations.Wewillkeepthemathematicstoamin imum,andreferourreaderstotherecentapplicationsofsuchmethodsandthemethodological debateswelldocumented,amongothersinDevezas,2006,andKorotayevandTsirel,2010.As wewillshowinthisarticle,thisveryrecentanalysisprovidedbyKorotayevandTsirelbrought againmotionintothesubjectoftheKcycledebate,characterizedbydebatesonwhetherthese cyclesexistatall,becausethesetwoRussianKcycleresearcherspresentresultsofspectralana
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lysisthathasdetectedthepresenceofKondratieffwaves(theirperiodequalsapproximately52 53years)intheworldGDPdynamicsforthe18702007period. Inthepresentessay,wewillalsobrieflyputtherelevanceofBoccarasapproachintothe widerandnecessaryperspectiveofthemoregeneralinternationallongcycledebateoutsideof FranceandwewillthenfeaturethehighlightsofBoccarasparticularcontributiontothecur rentglobaleconomicdepression,fromwhichtheworldeconomyslowlyrecuperates.Wewill concludebycautiouslydrawingsomegeneralconsequencesfromourfindings,especiallyfor thecurrentdebateonthefutureoftheEuropeanUnioneconomicpolicies.
Boccarastheoryintheframeworkofthecontemporarydebate
Inordertotalkabouteconomiccycles,onehasnttobeFrenchorbeingamemberofasmall leftwingpoliticalparty,orboth.Thecrisisproneandcyclicalnatureofglobalcapitalismhas beenfeaturedalreadybymanytheoriesinthetraditionofpoliticaleconomy. 1Amongtheim portantnonmainstream,nonneoliberalpoliticaleconomiesofourtime,thefirsttobemen tionedinthiscontextisofcourseSchumpeter. Schumpeter,HarvardprofessorofeconomicsandTHEgreateconomistofthewaning19th Centuryandtheearly20thCentury,alreadyforesawinhiswritings,publishedin1908,1912, 1939,1950thatcapitalistdevelopmenttakestheformof creativedestruction,andthatinnova tionbyentrepreneurs/companiesistheforcethatsustainslongtermeconomicgrowth,evenas itdestroysthevalueofestablishedcompaniesthatenjoyedsomedegreeofmonopolypower. Capitalismisofastrongcyclicalnature,andthe50yearswings,firstdiscoveredbytheRussian NikolaiDmitriyevichKondratiev(18921938),whowasbythewayavictimofStalinspurges, playanimportantpartintheupsanddownsofinnovationsandeconomicgrowth.Thesewrit ingsofJosephAloisSchumpeter(inparticular1908,1912,1939),andlaterworldsystemand dependencyanalyseswerealwaysawareoftheemergenceofcrises,cyclicalimbalances,re gionalshifts,andtheriseanddeclineofentireregionsandevencontinentsintheprocessof capitalistdevelopment.SeveralofSchumpetersmajorworks,like TheNatureandEssenceof TheoreticalEconomics(1908,translated2009)TheTheoryofEconomicDevelopment:AnIn quiryintoProfits,Capital,Credit,InterestandtheBusinessCycle (1912,firsttranslated1934) wereallheavilyinfluencedbyhisearlyandshortexperienceattheouterrim(19091911)ofthe AustroHungarian Empire at Chernivtsi University in Northern Bukovina, Ukraine, where Schumpetergainedvaluableinsightsintothenatureofworlddevelopmentintheperiphery. Asiswellknown,forSchumpeter(1913,1939)theentrepreneuristheprimemoverofeco nomicdevelopment,whichiscyclicalincharacter,connectinginnovations,cycles,anddevelop ment.SchumpeterstronglybelievedintheseKondratievwaves(forempiricalstudiesonKon dratievwaves,seeDevezas2006;furthermoreBornschier1996;Goldstein1988;Tausch2007, 2008).Successfulinnovationisasourceoftemporarymarketpower,erodingtheprofitsandpo
1 Amin,1976,1994,1997;Arrighi,1995;Attin,2003a,2003b,2005;Bauer,1936;Bobrvnikov,2004; Bornschier,1996;DevezasandCorredine,2001;Escudier,1993;Goldstein,1988;Jessop,1990,Jessopand Sum,2006;Jourdon,2008;Kalecki,1966,1968,1971,1979,1996,KaleckiandFeiwel,1972;Korotayevand Tsirel,2010;Lou,1997,1999,LouandReijnders,1999;Luxemburg,1964;Mandel,1995;OHara,1994, 2000,2001,2003a,2003b,2004a,2004b,2005a,2005b;Schumpeter,1912,1939;Tausch,2007a,2007b, TauschandGhymers,2006.
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sitionofoldfirms,yetultimatelylosingtothepressureofthenewinventions,championedby thecompetitors.2 Thecontemporaryinternationalsystem,moreandmore,seemstoresemblesuchaperpetual riseandfallofcompanies,regions,sectors,evennations.Severalworldsystemsapproaches havetakenupthebasicideaoftheSchumpeteriancompetitionandstipulatedthateventhein ternationalsystemitselfsincethe1450sischaracterizedbyhegemonies,internationalsystem deconcentration,thedelegitimationoftheinternationalorder,andrecurrentglobalwarsover thehegemonyinthesystem(seeDevezas2006;furthermoreArrighi1995;Goldstein1988; Tausch2007).ThatcurrentlyeconomicgrowthdramaticallyshiftsawayfromtheNorthAt lanticarenaandthestatesverycloselylinkedtothemtootherregionsoftheworldeconomy seemstoindicatethatsuchamajorfundamentalshiftistakingplacewiththeforceofareal tsunami.Everywhere,themonopoliesofpower,whichtheolddominanttransnationaloligopol ieswielded,areeroding. ForBoccara,therediscoveryoftheKcycleshasbeenthedefiningaspectofhisscientific life.Atthispointofassessingthevalidityofhisapproach,wealsoshouldhaveacloserlookat thecontributionoftheAustrianpoliticaleconomistJosefSteindl(19121993),whosework nowadaysenjoysarenaissance,especiallychampionedvigorouslybytheAustrianInstitutefor EconomicResearchinVienna,asapolicyalternativetothecurrentanddominantBrussels/Par isneoliberalconsensusoftheEuropeanCommissionandtheOECD.Asfarasweknow,Boc carawasnotawareofthisimportanttheorytradition,whichinmanywaysdefendsandsupports hisviewpointsandisparalleltohismajorscientificdiscoveries.A GoogleBookSearchana lysis,performedonSeptember10th2010andsearchingforalltheworksauthoredbyPaulBoc cara,yieldednoresultforaquotationofanyoftheworks,writtenbyJosefSteindlbyBoccara. InSteindl(1946),theauthoranalyzedtheprocessofincreasingconcentrationofcapitaland theoligopolyofthemarket.InSteindl(1952)heestablishedarelationshipbetweeneconomic stagnation and the growth of oligopoly in advanced capitalist countries. In the words of Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen,theresearchersatthementionedAustrianInstituteofEco nomicResearch,whoareveryinstrumentalintherediscoveryofSteindlslegacy: Incompetitiveindustriesprofitmarginsarehighlyelastic,andexcesscapacityiselim inatedinthelongrunbysqueezingoutsurpluscapital.Inmonopolisticindustries,on theotherhand,pricecutsarenotpracticable.Intheseindustries,demanddoesnotde termineprices,butthedegreeofcapacityutilizationalsointhelongrun.Thetypical producerinthecompetitivetypeofindustryhaslowprofitmarginsandrathersmall chancestosurvive.Inmonopolisticindustries,onthecontrary,producershavesubstan tialprofitmarginsandahighchanceofsurvival.Therefore,itwouldrequirealarge pricecuttoeliminatecompetitors.Hence,oligopolisticormonopolisticfirmsavoidcut throatpricecompetition.(Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen,2006) Steindlexpectedaseculartendencytostagnationinmaturecapitalisteconomies,brought about by monopolization, and as Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen remark with justification,theprosperityofthepostwarerawasabigsurprisetoSteindl,whopublished hisanalysisofUScapitalismin1952.Steindlstheory,inourview,issoimportantintheBoc caracontext,becauseitpossiblyhighlightsthetendenciesofstagnationandsociallyexcluding development,observedaftertheendofKeynesianismandfocusedonbylater,empiricallyin
2 ForaformalmodelofSchumpeteriangrowtheconomics,seeAghion/Howitt1992.
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spiredtheoriesofmultinationalcorporationpenetration(MNCpenetration).Steindlstheory, 1952,wasavisionofeventstocome.WestronglyassumeinthiscontextthatMNCinwardpen etrationisamaindrivingforceofthedegreeofmonopoly,especiallyinperipheryandsemi peripherycountries.Intheintroductiontotherepublicationofhisbookon Maturityand Stagnation,SteindlexplainedtheextraordinarydevelopmentofthepostwarperiodintheWest bythefollowingfactors: therisingshareofthepublicsector; technicalinnovationsandnewproducts; internationalcooperationineconomicpolicies; cooperationbetweenbusinessandtradeunions;and afavourablepoliticalandeconomicclimate. Thepostwarboomincreasedpublicexpenditures,whichraisedeffectivedemand.Theseout layswerelargelyfinancedbyprofittaxes.InaccordancewithKaleckisarguments,theexpan sionaryeffectofpublicexpendituresisevenhigher,Steindlassumes,iftaxesarefinancedby profitsandnotmassconsumption.Technicalinnovationsstimulatedinvestment.Information andcommunicationtechnologies,automationandaircraftindustriesgaveastrongimpetus.The innovations,duetohighmilitaryspendingevendisseminatedtotheprivatesector.Inpostwar Europe,privateinvestmentwasfurtherstimulatedbythecatchingupprocesswiththeUSA,a processinitialledbytheMarshallplan.AccordingtoSteindl,thespeedofEuropeanpostwar recoverywasgreatlyenhancedbyadditionallaboursupplyfromagricultureand,lateron,from abroad.ThechangeintheseculartrendofincomedistributionsincetheendoftheSecond WorldWarintheworldsmostadvancedeconomies,observedbySteindl,hastobeespecially noted:sincetheearly1980s,incomedistributionhaschangedinfavourofclasseswithhighsav ingspropensities;i.e.inmostindustrialcountriestheshareofwagesandsalariesinnationalin comehasbeendeclining,whilenonwageincome,inparticularpropertyincomes,haverisen sharply,andincomeinequalitybetweentherichandthepoorhasincreasedconsiderably. InGraph1wetrytovisualizesomeofthemainpointsofBoccarastheorybyusing datafrom22westerndemocracies.Unemploymentremainedhighthroughouttheperiod,in equalityrosesharply,asdidglobalization,andeconomicgrowthstronglyfluctuated.
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Graph1:Risingmonopolization/globalization,risinginequality,stagnationandunemploymentin theWest(22leadingwesterndemocracies)3
AccordingtoSteindl,theburdenoftaxationhasshiftedfromprofitstowagesaprocess whichreducedtheexpansionaryeffectsofthepublicsector(Steindl,1979,p.5).Withoutun dulymixingthetheoreticalandtheempiricalpartofthiswork,itshouldbeemphasizednever thelessthattheverysignificantdownwardpressureofMNCpenetrationonsocialsecurityex penditureswouldbeanimportantempiricaltestfortheSteindltheoryofcapitalism.Assuming thattaxrevenuesareimmediatelyspent,higherprofittaxesarepaidoutofincreasingprofits (beforetaxation)duetohighercapitalutilization,whileanincreaseinwagetaxationreduces consumption.ThefollowingaspectsofSteindlsanalysisespeciallycaughttheattentionofthe empiricalresearchersfromtheAustrianInstituteofEconomicResearch(Guger/Marterbauer/ Walterskirchen,2006):whatSteindlcallsapolicyofstagnationwillcontinue,sincegovern mentsarepreoccupiedwithinflationandthepublicdebt(Steindl,1979,p.9).ThustheSteindl paperonStagnationTheoryandStagnationPolicy(Steindl,1979,especiallyp.13)mustbe regarded,togetherwithBoccaraspapers,asoneofthefirstkeydocumentsagainstthecurrent Euromonetariststagnationpolicy,whichaccordingtothisKaleckianviewpointisthecause ofstagnation,unemploymentandrisinginequalityinEurope.Thenewpoliticalandeconomic landscape,whichbegantotakeshapeinthelate1970sand1980s,wascharacterizedby: macroeconomic policy being oriented primarily towards price stability and budget consolidation declininginternationalcooperationregardingeconomicpolicy(breakdownoftheBretton Woodssystemandtheestablishmentofaflexibleexchangeratesystemintheearly1970s)
3 UnweightedmeansforAustralia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Greece, Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Luxembourg,Netherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,United Kingdom,UnitedStates.Sourcesandvariabledefinitions,seeGraph1ofthiswork.Thenumericalvaluesin ourGraphareagainsimpledifferencesbetweentheEU15performanceandthatoftheUSAandtheother Westerndemocraciesunderinvestigation.Inordertovisualizeourtimeseriesinasinglegraphandonasingle easilycomprehensiblelefthandscale,weagainhadtomultiplytheUniversityofTexasInequality(Their Indicesoftheinequalityofwagesbysectors)datatimeseriesbyafactorof250andtodividetheETH globalizationflowdatabyafactorof10,toproducescales,whichrangefrom0to12.
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increasingenvironmentalandenergyproblems apoliticaltrendagainstfullemployment(withKaleckis(1943)Steindlbelievedinthe politicalaspectsoffullemployment,andarguedthattheentrepreneurswerelosinginterest infullemploymentbecauseoftheincreasingpoweroftradeunionsandemployeesasa consequenceoffullemployment. ThisnewsetupwascalledbySteindlasthereturnoftheBourbons.TheBourbonsreturn resultedinarestrictivebiasineconomicpolicy,particularlyintheEU.ForGuger/Marterbauer /Waltterskirchen,oneofthemainconsequencesforouranalysisoftheEuropeanUniontoday isthefollowing: Steindlidentifiedapersistentandlastingmoodagainstgrowthandveryclearlyspoke aboutadeliberatepolicyofstagnation.Thischaracterizationseemstobeevenmore appropriateforthecurrentdevelopment.IntheEUamacroeconomicpolicyframework hasbeenestablishedthathasarestrictivebiasitmayevenbecharacterizedaspolicy ofstagnationalthoughitpromisedstabilityandgrowth.Inthecurrentmacroeconom icpolicyframeworkoftheEU,institutionstoguaranteepricestabilityandsoundpublic financeareextensivelydeveloped.However,institutionsresponsibleforaggregatede mandandfullemploymentaremissing.(Guger/Marterbauer/Waltterskirchen,2006) AccordingtoSteindl,therearecurrentlythreemainpillarsofeconomicpolicyintheEU: (1)afreemarketeconomyisseenasbeingstableandimprovingwelfare.Deregulationand establishingfreemovementofgoods,services,capitalandlabour,andstructuralreforms especiallyonproductandcapitalmarketsareseenasthemainelementofimprovingreal variablessuchaseconomicgrowthandemploymentinthelongrun. (2)macroeconomicpoliciesareorientedtowardsensuringgrowthandstabilitybyproviding stableframeworks.Thisisseentobeguaranteedbythecombinationofpricestabilityand soundpublicfinance.Forachievingtheseendstwoinstitutionalarrangementshavebeen formed:theEuropeanCentralBank,whichisprimarilyorientedonpricestabilityandthe PactforStabilityandGrowth,whichaimsatbudgetarypositionsclosetobalanceorinthe surplusinthemediumterm. (3)Theunemploymentproblem,seenfromaneoclassicalperspective,mainlybeingdetermined bystructuralfactors.Inthemediumandlongterm,unemploymentwillbeunaffectedby aggregatedemandorproductivecapacities,buttheNAIRU[nonacceleratinginflationrate ofunemployment]canbereducedbyaflexiblelabourmarket.EUemploymentpoliciesare orientedtowardsincreasingtheadaptabilityoftheworkforceandtheflexibilityofthelabour markets. InviewofthecurrentcrisisinGreeceandinotherSouthernEuropeancountries,Steindlre markedpropheticallythatithastobeavoidedthatdebtorcountriesareforcedintoapainful policyofrestrictions,causinglowgrowthandhighratesofunemployment,ofwhichallcoun trieswouldhavetosuffer.Hefurtherpointedout(Steindl,1988)thattherecordoftheEUmod elofeconomicpolicyhasbeendisappointing.GrowthratesofGDParelowandunemployment ishighinrelationtolongrunaveragesandtotheUSA.EconomicpolicyintheEUseemsto haveaninherentantigrowthandprounemploymentbias.
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Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchenthusreachtheconclusion: What weexperienced in recent years was a European economic policy focused on preventinginflationandbudgetdeficits.WiththeStabilityandGrowthPactSteindls apprehensionswererealized:Europeseconomicpolicygotabiastowardsstagnation policyfromtheoutset.TheLissabonprocessorientedtowardseconomicgrowth hasnotalteredthisbiassofar.(Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen,2006). Apart from Schumpeter and the Steindl/Kalecki paradigm, and Schumpeters tradition, a thirdpoliticaleconomycomestomymind,whichmightbeusefulinovercomingthecurrent neoliberalBrussels/Parisconsensus.ItsthepoliticaleconomyofPaulBoccara.Asgreatnum berofscholars,includingLou,Mandelandagreatnumberofhisotherwisefierceideological opponentsgraciouslyrecognized,Boccarasimpartialacademiccontributionpreciselyistobe situatedintotheframeworkofthesecriticalapproachestopoliticaleconomy.Andseeninthe perspectiveofthepoliticaleconomyofSteindlandKalecki,Boccarasdiagnosisisnottoofar awayfromthemainstreamofalternativecriticalthinkingonthenecessitytoreformulate Europeaneconomicpolicy.Fromtheoutset,Boccaramustbepraisedforconfrontingtheneo Stalinistorthodoxy,reigningalsoinwesterncommunistpoliticalpartiesatthattime,fortaking upandconsideringrespectfullytheheritageofNikolaiKondratiev,afigure,whichimmediately raisedinthosecirclesatthattimethesuspicionofTrotskysm.AsJessopandSum(2006) quitecorrectlyemphasize,BoccarasquarelyplacestheentiredebateaboutKondratievcycles (Kcycles)withinthemoregeneralframeworkofthesuccessionofregimesandtypesofregula tions.Andevenmoreinteresting,intheframeworkofourempiricalanalysis,Boccaralinks alreadyinhisclassic,publishedin1976(whosefirsteditionappearedin1973)thequestionof economiccyclestotheoneofmondialisation/globalization.Interesting,asthisperspective mightbe,itshouldbealsoemphasizedthattodayBoccara(2008)wasalsoamongthefirst globalpoliticaleconomiststodiagnosethefactthatthecurrentcrisiswouldbenotonlyasevere recession,butaprofoundandthoroughcrisis,remindingtheworldofthe1929GreatDepres sion.Boccaraalso,likeSteindlandKaleckibeforehim,putsforwardproposalstoinitiateeman cipationfromthisgonemadsystem.Forhim,thefinancialcrisisthatoriginatedintheUnited StatesisnowseverelyshakingEuropeandFrance.Whydoyouspeakabouta globalcrisisof capitalismratherthanafailureofFinancialLiberalism?ForBoccara,2008,currentchanges exacerbatecapitalism.Thefinancialcrisisisrevealingthematurationofthecrisisincapitalism. Tobesatisfiedwithchallengingliberalismorthelackofregulationorderegulatedfinance, aspeopletypicallysay,isabasicerror,leadingtoholdingontoasystemthatisbecomingmore andmoreharmful.ForBoccara,2008,thecrisisitisnotcausedbymerelydeviatingfroma normalcapitalismthatwouldbehealthy,asclaimed,forexample,bycurrentFrenchPresid entNicolasSarkozy,becausethesystemitselfhasgonecrazy.Boccara,2008,analyzesthissys tem,nowdominatingtheworld,asmadbecauseitslogicofprofitabilityisreachingitsclimax. Thatscapitalismsquared.Itisthereforecapitalismasasystem,whichputsmakingmoneybe foreandagainstpeoplelives,thatneedstobequestioned.Itisfutiletospeakofmoralityand transparencywithoutattackingtheverylogicofthesystem.Inaddition,forBoccara,2008 thereisnopossiblegoingbacktothecapitalismofourgrandpas,becausethecurrentexacerbat ingtransformationsareirreversible.Attheheartofthecurrentsystemiccrisis,whichismuch deepereventhantheonebetweenthetwoWorldWars,wecanobserverevolutionsoftechnical andsocialoperations.Withtheindustrialrevolution,materialandmoneypredominateagainst
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peopleinproduction.Theaccumulationofcapitalhashelpedtoreplacehandtoolswithma chinetools.Thishasledtothefiringofworkers,topressuresonwagesinfavourofprofits whileincreasingproduction. Withtheinformationrevolutionthereisaradicalchangetakingplace.Scienceandinforma tion,ratherthanmachines,nowdominateproduction.Computersreplacesomefunctionsofthe humanbrain.Thisisanextraordinarychange,sinceinformation,likeresearch,canbeshared throughouttheworld,whileamachinetoolcanonlybehereorthereandcanthereforebe privatelyowned.ForBoccara,2008,thismutationgivesrisetobothaneedforsharingandex pandingthesystem.Thisisnoticeablewiththeexpansionofprivatemultinationalcompanies thatareabletosharethecostsofglobalresearch,incontrasttopurelydomesticenterprises. Hence,newprivatisations.Hence,too,deregulationofmarkets,openingthemasmuchaspos sibleandbuildingmultistates,fromtheEuropeanUniontotheglobalhegemonyoftheUnited States.OtherindicationsofthefailureofcapitalismareforBoccara,2008:employeesarecom petingworldwide(withthetremendousincreaseofworkersandindustryinemergingcountries, particularlyinAsia)andtheenormousfallbackontotheuseofthefinancialmarketsbymulti nationalfirms.Itisthiscontradictionbetweenfinancialaccumulationandmaterialoverexploit ation,whichforBoccara,2008,isputtingpressureontowageseverywherethatprovokescrises liketheonein2001ortheonethatisloomingbehindthecurrentfinancialcrisis.ForBoccara, 2008,historicallymoneyhasbeengraduallyfreedfromgold,thoughostensiblykeepinggoldas itsgroundbasis.Butthebreakingoffofthisbasisisnowalmostcompletewiththebeginning ofamonetaryrevolution.Thisallowsforthecreationofseeminglylimitlessmoney,aswiththe dollar.Buttheabsenceofboundariesisafantasy.Thisisoneofthereasonsfortheenormityof thewildspeculationthathasledtothecurrentfinancialcrisis.ThisthoughtbringsBoccarainto vicinityofneoclassicalandmonetaristeconomists.Amongthemoreradicalcurrentsonthe politicalleft,toourknowledgeSamirAminandAndreGunderFrankwouldhaveespecially emphasizedasimilaranalysis. Speculationimpliesthreethings(Boccara,2008):amoneysupply,arequirementofavery highrateofprofit,andaproductwithstrongdemandonwhichtospeculate.Meanwhile,the startofthemonetaryrevolutionhasoverenlargedtheavailablemonetarysupply.Productivity oftheinformationrevolutionandglobalcompetitionofworkershavestronglyincreasedtherate ofprofit(15%andmore),andspeculationwantstoincreaseit.Housingdemandhasbecome considerable.Theverylowinterestrateschargedonthedollarallowedbanksandspeculative capitaltoborrowverycheaply,tothenlendmassiveamounts(farbeyondtheircapital)toindi vidualswhowentintodebttobuyhousing.Thesefinancialinstitutionshavelentatincreasingly highinterestrates,drawingaprofitfromthisratedifference,untilsuchpointasthebuyers couldnotrepaytheloans.Consequently,therepaymentofdebt,massivelypurchasedbythe banksintheUnitedStatesandEurope,droppedsharply.Hencethebanklosses.ForBoccara, 2008,thisspeculationrelatestotheinherentcontradictionofcapitalism:thesystemusesmoney togetmoneyattheexpenseofexploitedworkerswages.Yetitisimpossibletomakemoney withoutconsumers.Inthisinstance,populardemand,resultinginenormousdebts,hasrunup againstthedownwardpressureonwages,whichhaspreventedtherepaymentofdebts. AstheFrenchKcycleresearcherandpoliticaleconomistPhilippeJourdonquitecorrectlyre marks(Jourdon,2008):
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Indeed,themonetarydimensionexistedinKONDRATIEFFstheory.Thevariationin goldmarkets,anditsimpactonproduction,isoneofthefourpolesandthemostsuper structuralofBOCCARAspresentation(1993)ofthelongcyclestheory,whereasthe mostinfrastructuraloneisrelatedtodemographicmoves,witheconomyandtechno logyinthemiddle.Butthematterwasgoldonly,andthisdimensioniscompletelyout dated,andmustbeextendedtocreditmoney,particularly.(Jourdon,2008:13) Boccara,2008alsopaysattentiontotheecologicalrevolution.Forhim,thestupidityofpol lutionrelatestothesamesystematworkinthefinancialmarkets,withthewasteofmaterialre sources, in production as well as in consumption. Simple taxation cannot be the solution withoutcompromisingbusinessmanagementgearedtofinancialprofitability,withoutgetting helpfromnewpublicservicesfornewwaystoproduceandconsume.Aimingforsustainable developmentaswecommonlysay,fromboththeleftandtherightisforBoccara,2008totally insufficientwithoutotherforcesandfundingthatareincompatiblewiththerequirementsof capital.CallsforthestateandmarketregulationrevealforBoccara,2008anewclimateinfa vourofproposalstocontrolmarketsandacapitalismgonemad.Itisashiftfrompreviousperi ods.ButagreaterinvolvementoftheStateinmarketregulationwillnotsufficeatallifthefun damentalrulesofthesystemaremaintained.Theleftmustbreakthetraditionalalternative: MarketorState.OntheStateside,newpowersareneeded,powersofcontrol,andofdecisions madebyworkersandcitizens,inbusinessesasinpublicservices.OntheMarketside,markets needtobecontrolledbythedistributionofequityandbyinnovativepublicservices.Regarding themarketforlabour,thereneedstobeanemphasisonjobandtrainingsecurity;regardingthe marketingofproducts,infavourofnewmanagementcriteria;andfinally,regardingthefinan cialmarket,infavourofpublicinstitutionsandanewcreditsystem. Boccara,2008alsothinksthatwecannotlimitinterventiontolastminutepluggingholesthat aremultiplyingwithoutreformingtheentirebankingsystem.Ofcourse,wecouldstarttaking someimmediatesteps,whileatthesametimedevelopingoverallplansbasedonadialogue amongworkers,citizensandtheirorganizationsatthenational,Europeanandworldlevels. Statecontrolorparticipationinthebankshasbecomeinevitable,intheUnitedStatesandin Europe.ButforBoccara,2008,theyareadhocinemergencyandseenasprovisional.Thatis notenoughatall.Thisisnotamatterofeliminatingstatespeculationattheexpenseoftaxpay ers,andthenstartingalloveragainwiththesamecreditcriteria.Choosingprevention?Buta Europeanpublicfundtobuyrottenassets,imitatingtheAmericanPaulsonplan,doesnotmeet theneed.Norwouldsimpleguaranteesondeposits,norapublicinstitutiontakingtemporary participationinbankswithnoothercriteria.Anoverhaulofthesystemisneeded,withpublic involvementandnationalization,publicandnationalcentresoffinance,anewbankcredit,new publicservicesforcredit,andcooperationamongthemselvesforalocal,Europeanandglobal reconstruction. Inthiscontext,Boccara,2008alsosinglesouttheEuropeanCentralBankforcriticism.For him,theprimarymissionoftheECBagainstinflation,forastrongEuro,promotesassetsex portationagainstindustrialemployment.Thisisoneofthereasonswhytheunemploymentrate ishigherintheEurozonethanintheUnitedStates,whereemploymentisanessentialtaskfor theFed.TheECBhadtoflytotherescueofbanks,andsodidtheFed,inprovidingliquidity. Butitcanonlydosoinexchangeforsecuritiesdepositedbythebanks.Whenthesesecurities arerottenandbanksharesarefalling,banksarepushedintobankruptcyorhavetoberecapital
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izedbythestates.AsimpledropininterestratesoftheECB,demandedbytherightandthe left,isnotthesolution.Yettherecentandsimultaneousdropoftheratesofsixcentralbanks aroundtheworld,includingtheECBandtheFed,demonstratestheseverityandnoveltyofthe situation.LowratesoftheFedhavefuelledspeculation.Theissueisthereforetoreducethe ratesinaconditionalorselectiveway:increaseinterestratesforloanstofinancialinvestments, andreducetozerowhenforrealinvestments,providedtheyareaccompaniedwithmorejobs andtraining.Also,theStabilityPact,directedagainstgovernmentspending,mustberemoved. But,asBoccarademonstratedinhiswritings,behindthebankingcrisisisloomingaserious economiccrisisonaglobalscale,withashakendollar.Thiscrisiswillalsoreachemerging countries.Already,thefallofthestockexchangesarestrongandarereachingAsia,asisthe casewithJapan.Bylayingthecostoftheirhegemonyontheimportationofcapitalfromall aroundtheworld,theUnitedStateshascontractedacolossaldebt.Thisdebtcorrespondstothe withdrawalofgreatmassesofTreasurybillsindollarsbycentralbanks,Europeanandeven morebyAsianbanks.Thisleadstoadollarinflationthatcouldultimatelyleadtoitsrejection andwouldseriouslyweakentheinternationalmonetaryandfinancialsystem.Besides,sover eignfundshavestartedtousetheirdollarsforpartialacquisitionsofU.S.firms.ForBoccara, 2008,alsotheIMFisgoingthroughaverydeepcrisis.Thevotingrightsofdevelopingcoun triesandemergingmarketsareextremelysmall.DominiqueStraussKahnwantstoincrease themalittle.Thiswould,accordingtoBoccara,2008,notsolveatalltheissueoftheUnited Statesblockingpower,whichmustberemoved.Accordingtohisanalysis,theIMFdiscredited itselfbyplayingtheroleofpolicemanagainstthedevelopingcountries.Ithascauseddisasters byputtingpressureonpublicandsocialspending,totheadvantageoftheircreditors.Ithasgiv enupitsrole,setupafterthewar,whichwastosupportthewholeworldsgrowth.Thisislead ing,accordingtoBoccara,2008,somecountriestowanttofreethemselvesfromit.Thisiswhat theestablishmentoftheSouthBankbyLatinAmericancountriesmeans.Suchinitiativesare positive.Butbeyondthat,Boccara,2008thinksthereisaneedofaradicallynewIMF,andwe needtorebuildtheworldwideeconomicalorganizationwithothercriteria. Tocreateacommonworldcurrency,emancipatedfromthedollar,wecanrely,Boccara, 2008thinks,onanalreadyexistingembryo:thespecialdrawingrightsoftheIMF(SDR).The IMF,asortofcentralbankofcentralbanks,managesacommonpoolofcurrenciesandgold, setupbytheBrettonWoodsagreementsin1944.Eachcountrywasabletodrawforeigncurren ciesfromothercountries,inproportiontoitsgolddeposit.TheSpecialDrawingRights,estab lishedintheearly1970s,aredrawingrightswithoutgoldcounterpart.Itisapuremonetary creationoftheIMF.ButtheUnitedStatesopposestheirusebecausetheythreatenthehege monyofthedollar.ButwecanalreadygeneratemoreSDRs,immediately,andthencreatefrom themacommonglobalcurrency.Thiswouldrefinancecreditsforemploymentortraining,and publicservices.Thecommoncurrencywouldhelppromoteservicesandpublicpropertybe longingtohumanity(food,water,energy,transport,environment,culture,health,peace,etc.), andwouldtherebychallengethedominationofmultinationalcompanies.
Methodologyandresearchdesign
Inthefollowing,wewillshowfromstandardtimeseriesdatainthetraditionofGoldstein andAttinthat,asBoccaracorrectlypredictedalreadyin1973/76,globalizationindeedleadsto theerosionofeconomicgrowth.Ourmodelrestsontheroleofdefencepactsintheworldsys
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tem,which,inouranalysis,areamajorblockadeagainsttheslidingintowarfare.Nothingcould betterhighlighttheerosionoftheKeynesian,NATOandWarsawPactAlliancesupportedpost WorldWarIIorderthanthequadrupleprocessofglobalization,erosionofeconomicgrowth, defencepacts,andtheincreaseofworldpoliticalsuperpowertensions.Inaddition,wealso showthattheglobalizedyearsinworldhistory,18701913and19752009,showstrikingparal lelsintheireconomicgrowthcyclepattern,andthatontopofall,thepatternsofwarfareas measuredbyannualmajorpowerbattlefatalitiesshowagainastrikingparallelofthepost 1945patternswithearlier,indentedWpatternshapedwarfarecycles.Insteadoflearningfrom thepast,theworldrepeatsinanutshellthegraveerrorsofthesecondhalfofthe19thCentury. Inthesocialsciences,timeseriescanrevealmanyimportanttrendsandconclusions, whichmightbehiddenfromsimplecrossnationaldataanalysis.Mostpublishedresearchart iclesonthesubjectofthecapitalistworldeconomyanddevelopmentperformancearebasedon simpleorpooledcrossnationaldataanalysis,andasyetdonotusetimeseriesanalysis,based onyearlydata.Firstofall,statisticalresearchmethodsanddevelopmentshavedeveloped,and theavailabilityofrelevantstatisticalprogrammes,availablefortheglobalresearchcommunity, hasproliferatedduringthelastdecades.Forone,weshouldmentionasafirststepthepowerful instrumentsofverysimple,lineartimeseriescorrelationanalysisofindicatorperformanceover time,nowpossiblefordozensorevenhundredsofcountriesbyapplyingthepowerful,simple anduserfriendlytoolsofMicrosoftEXCELinitscurrentversions.Secondly,awidearrayof moresophisticatedandeconometrictoolsarenowfreelyavailableforallusersinanequally userfriendlyandgloballyavailablestatisticalsoftwareforhomecomputers,theSPSSIBM productSPSSinitscurrentversions.Thetimeseriescomponentoftheprogrammenowin cludessuchsophisticatedeconometrictimeseriestechniquessuchasspectralanalysis,autocor relationanalysisandtimeseriescrosscorrelationanalysis.Astotheeconometricanalysesused, wesimplydrawtheattentionofourreaderstostandardapplicationsandintroductions.4 ThereisreallynoexcuseanymoreNOTtousethewealthofthesetechniques.Secondly, andinthiscontextequallyimportant,thesocialsciences,focusingonglobalization,nowhave thefollowingtimeseriesdatafreelyavailableinEXCELformat,easilytobeputintoanSPSS formatdatafile(seeappendix).Thefollowingdataseriesareespeciallyrelevantforourre searchquestionanddirectlyrelatetotheresearchquestionsofthedependency/worldsystems paradigm(seeappendix).Apartfromtheeconomicstandarddataoneconomicgrowth(IMF) andunemployment(OECD)weusedtheKOFIndexofGlobalization,providedbyateamofthe ETHZurichinSwitzerland,whichtoourknowledgeisthebestsingleavailabletimeseries aboutdifferentaspectsofglobalizationsincethe1970sthroughto2007.Weconcentratedhere ontheETHeconomicglobalizationtimeseries,togetatleastyearlydata,whichwouldbecom parabletoourindependentvariables.Economicglobalizationiscomposedinthisindexby: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. CapitalAccountRestrictions ForeignDirectInvestment,flows(percentofGDP) ForeignDirectInvestment,stocks(percentofGDP) HiddenImportBarriers IncomePaymentstoForeignNationals(percentofGDP) MeanTariffRate
4 BasictextsIto,1993;Meko2009;aswellasNagakawa,2006;Warner,1998;Wei,2006;forcriticalviewson earlierresearchfromthestandpointofeconometrictimeseriesanalysisSilverberg,2005,2007;furthermore: Devezas,2006;andTausch/Ghymers,2006.

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7. PortfolioInvestment(percentofGDP) 8. TaxesonInternationalTrade(percentofcurrentrevenue) 9. Trade(percentofGDP) Ouranalysisalsoreliesonthedataseriesbythe UniversityofTexasInequalityProjecton Inequality.UTIPisaresearchgroupattheUniversityofTexas,concernedwithmeasuringand explainingmovementsofinequalityinwagesandearningsandpatternsofindustrialchange aroundtheworld.Itstartsfromtheassumptionthatonecanestablishareasonablyreliablerela tionshipbetweenthesemeasuresandthebroaderconceptsofinequality,suchasincomein equality.UTIPreliesontheofTheil'sTstatistictocomputeinequalityindexesfromindustrial, regionalandsectoraldata.UTIPalsousedyearlypayinequalityasaninstrumenttoestimate measuresofhouseholdincomeinequality,foralargepanelofcountriesfrom1963through 1999. Sothefollowingtimeseriesdatawereused: Economic growth: IMF economic growth data (real GDP per annum) and growth predictions,datadownloadApril2009.5 Globalization:ETHZurichglobalizationtimeseriesdata,datadownloadJanuary 2010,6TheZurichdata,usedinthisstudy,refertotheETHeconomicglobalization timeseries,whichcoversactualflows,combiningtrade(percentofGDP),foreign DirectInvestment(flows,percentofGDP);foreigndirectinvestment(stocks,percentof GDP);portfolioinvestment(percentofGDP);andincomepaymentstoforeignnationals (percentofGDP).TheETHZurichglobalizationdataareweightedaccordingtothe followingkey:
IndicesandVariables A. EconomicGlobalization i)ActualFlows Trade(percentofGDP) ForeignDirectInvestment,flows(percentofGDP) ForeignDirectInvestment,stocks(percentofGDP) PortfolioInvestment(percentofGDP) IncomePaymentstoForeignNationals(percentofGDP) ii)Restrictions HiddenImportBarriers MeanTariffRate TaxesonInternationalTrade(percentofcurrentrevenue) CapitalAccountRestrictions Weights [37%] (50%) (19%) (20%) (24%) (17%) (20%) (50%) (22%) (28%) (27%) (22%)
Inequality:TheilIndexofInequality,basedonpaymentin21industrialsectors; calculatedfromUNIDOsourcesinUniversityofTexasInequalityProject(data downloadJanuary2010),http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/data.html

5 Vid.<http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php> 6 Vid.<http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/static/rawdata/globalization_2010_short.xls>
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Unemployment:unemploymentas%ofthecivilianlabourforce: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx Themostrecentcontributiononthesubject,writtenbytwoRussianKcycleresearchers, meritsourspecialattentioninthedebate.KorotayevandTsirel,2010presentresultsofspectral analysisthathasdetectedthepresenceofKondratieffwaves(theirperiodequalsapproximately 5253years)intheworldGDPdynamicsforthe18702007period.Toestimatethestatistical significanceofthedetectedcyclestheauthorsusedanewmethodology.Inaddition,there ducedspectralanalysishasindicatedaratherhighsignificanceofJuglarcycles(withaperiod of79years),aswellastheoneofKitchincycles(withaperiodof34years).Thus,theirspec tralanalysishasalsosupportedthehypothesisofthepresenceofJuglarandKitchincyclesin theworldGDPdynamics.KorotayevandTsirelsuggestthattheKuznetsswingshouldbere gardedasthethirdharmonicoftheKondratieffwaveratherthanasaseparateindependent cycle.Theresearch,presentedbyKorotayevandTsirelsuggeststwointerpretationsofthecur rentglobaleconomiccrisis:ontheonehand,thespectralanalysissuggestsratheroptimistically thatthecurrentworldeconomiccrisismightmarknotthebeginningofthedownswingphaseof the5thKondratieffwave,butitmaybeinterpretedasatemporarydepressionbetweentwo peaksoftheupswing(whereasthenextpeakmightevenexceedthepreviousone).Ontheother hand,KorotayevandTsirelsuggestthatthereissomeevidencesupportinganotherinterpreta tionbasedontheassumptionthatthecurrentworldfinancialeconomiccrisismarksthebegin ningofthedownswingphaseofthe5thKondratieffwave.KorotayevandTsirelalsoexplorethe worldGDPdynamicsbefore1870andfindthatitdoesnotappearpossibletodetectKondratieff wavesintheworldGDPdynamicsforthepre1870period,thoughforthisperiodtheyappearto bedetectedfortheGDPdynamicsoftheWest.KorotayevandTsirelarguethatinthepre1870 epochtheModernWorldSystemwasnotsufficientlyintegrated,andtheWorldSystemcore wasnotsufficientlystrongyetthatiswhyaccordingtothemtherhythmoftheWesterncores developmentwasnotquitefeltontheworldlevel.OnlyinthesubsequenteratheWorldSystem reachedsuchalevelofintegrationanditscoreacquiredsuchstrengththatitappearspossibleto traceKondratieffwavesintheWorldGDPdynamics.
Ourownresearchresults
Wefirstofallstartoutfromareclassificationandreanalysisofthelongwavesofcapitalist developmentintheperiodafter1740.Aswedocumentinourappendicestothiswork,wenow havenotonlypricefluctuations,butalsoworldindustrialproductiongrowthtimeseriesatour disposal,whichrangebackto1740.InTausch/Ghymers,2006,thedifferingKcycledatingand classificationschemeswerediscussed.IntheframeworkofreassessingBoccarasapproach,we proposehowevertoleavethedifferentexistingclassificationschemesoverboardandtoanalyze theuntransformedyearlyannualgrowthratesofglobalindustrialproductionintheframework oftheabundantliteratureonthedifferentphasesofglobalization(Tausch/Ghymers,2006), whoseempiricalcuttingpoints,correspondingtotheslumpofKcycles,wenowputinthis publicationat:1756;1819;1862;1921;1958;2009. Theempiricalevidenceofthepolynomialmultipleregressionsofthe5 thorderabouttheun transformedglobalindustrialproductiongrowthdataseriesisreallysurprisingandrevealsa clearMshapedpatternofworldindustrialproductiongrowth:
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Graph2:Kwaves,17562009
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Especiallytheglobalizedcyclesafter1862and1958bearaninterestingresemblance.In accordancewithstandardeconometricpracticeonthesubject,documented interalia inDe vezas,2006,wealsoperformedaspectralanalysisandananalysisofautocorrelationsabout thesetimeseries,toanswertheoldquestion,whethertheseKcyclesexistattheendoftheday. Whilespectralanalysisonlysuggeststheexistenceof10and20yearcyclesapartfromthe shortereconomicfluctuations,ouranalysiswiththeuntransformedandcompletedataseries alsosuggeststhatinthelightoftheanalysisofautocorrelations,therearenotonly10year cyclesandcyclesofabout35to40yearsduration,butalso55or60yearcyclesandeven90 yearcycles,whichallaresignificantinthestrictstatisticalsenseofthisstandardeconometric testfortimeseries.
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Graph3:Spectralanalysisoftheworldindustrialproductiongrowthdataseries,17412009
Spectral density - world ind. prod. Growth, 1741-2009

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Graph4:Analysisofautocorrelations(ACF)ofworldindustrialproductiongrowth,1741 2009
ACF analysis world production growth, 1741-2009

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Oneofthemoststrikingaspectsofthiskindofanalysisisthefactthatthetwophasesoful traliberalglobalizationpost1862andpost1958aresosimilarintendency.Wefirstshowthis byanoverlappinggraphofthetwocyclesandthe5 thorderpolynomialregressionwiththeun transformedoriginaldata: Graph5:Worldindustrialproductiongrowthduringtwoglobalizationperiods
Wealsoperformedaslidingcorrelationanalysis,basedonaprojected50yeartimeseries trendlinefrom1830andfrom1934onwards.Thesimilarityinthe indentedWshapedtrend isinourviewbreathtaking,andwemustbefastapproachingtheevilabyssattheendofthe 19thCentury,which,weallknow,ledtoWorldWarI,dontwe?
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Graph6:A50yeartrendlinecorrelationcomparisonofthetrajectoryofthesocietal modelssince1830/1934
Theempiricalanalysisofpatternsoftheevolvinginternationalsystemforquitesometime now also is familiar with the closer inspection of wars and war intensities since 1495. In Tausch/Ghymers,2006,theoriginaldataaboutmilitarybattlefatalitiesfrommajorpowersin theworldsystem(todays5membersoftheUNSecurityCouncilplusGermany)endby1975. InTausch/Ghymers,2006,thesedatawereexpandedwithPRIO,Oslodatafortheperioduntil 2002. Thestartlingdiscoverytomakeisthateachglobalpoliticalcyclefrom1495endsinaperiod ofsustained,threedecadelongbloodshedbetweencentralplayersoftheinternationalsystem. The5thorderpolynomialstatisticalanalysisoftheoriginal,untransformeddataofbattlefatalit iesfrommajorpowerwarsyieldsthefollowing,indentedWshapedpatternofescalatingglobal conflictsalongthetimelinesincethelastmajorglobalwar:
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Graph7:thewarcyclesintheworldsystem,14952002
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However,polynomialregressionanalysisintimesofeasilyavailableadvancedstandardeco nometrictimeseriesanalysisisneversufficient.Intheliterature,especiallyinDevezas,2006, wefindseveralreferences,whichdoubtthecyclicalnatureofinternationalrelations.Spectral analysisofthebattlefatalitiessince1495yieldstheexistenceof20upto40yearswarcycles, whiletheanalysisofautocorrelationsuggestsasimilarresult(Graphs8and9):
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Graph8:Spectralanalysisofbattlefatalitiesfrommajorpowerwars,14952002
Spectral density battle fatalities from maj. power wars 1495-2002
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Graph9:Analysisofautocorrelationsofbattlefatalitiesfrommajorpowerwars,14952002 ACF analysis batlle fatalities from maj. power wars 1495-2002
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Also,thefluctuationsoftheinternationalsystem,measuredbydefencepactindex,proposed byAttin,2005demonstratetheremarkablefluctuationsoftheinternationalsystem.Theindex,
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asitiswellknown,measuresthepercentageofthenationalstatesintheinternationalsystemin comparisontothetotalnumberofstatesinthesystem,whichatagiventime,belongstomilit aryalliances.Theheightofdefencepactdensityisreachedataround1835and1955,andafter theseyears,thedefencepactsystemdisintegratesandbuildsupanewinarenewedcycleofin ternationalwar.

Graph10:thedegreeoforganizationofthestatesoftheworldsystemindefencepacts%of statesbelongingtoadefencepact
Attina's defense pact index
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Graph11and12comparetheresultsfromspectralanalysisandanalysisofautocorrelation. Whilespectralanalysissuggestsnoreallongercycle,theanalysisofautocorrelationwouldsug gestan80yearand135yearcycle.
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Graph11:Spectralanalysisofthedefencepactindex,18151999
Spectral density - Attinas defence pact index, 1815-1999
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Graph12:Autocorrelationanalysisofthedefencepactindex,18151999
ACF analysis Defence Pact Index, 1815-1999
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Equallyastonishingaretheresultsfromthecomparisonoftheworldpoliticalcycle1862ff and1958ff,emergingfromGraph13.Itistobefearedthattheglobalizedworldpoliticalorder oftheperiodafter1958endsinthesamecatastropheofglobalwarsastheoldglobalized worldpoliticalorder,whichemergedduringtheheydayofliberalglobalizationbeforeWorld WarI. Graph13:howtheglobalwarcyclesaresimilartooneanother:1862ff.and1958ff.
InGraph14,weperformacrosscorrelationtimeseriesanalysisoftheeffectsofglobaliza tiononeconomicgrowthintheworldsystemsince1741.Forreasonsofsimplicity,wedefined inourtimeseriestheperiodbetween1870and1913andtheperiodafter1975tothepresentas theglobalizedyears(dummyvariable1),andtheotheryearsweredefinedasbeingrelatively freefromglobalization(dummyvariable0).Withatimelagofaround12to15years,globaliz ationleadstotheslowdownofeconomicgrowthintheworldsystemandtotheerosionof worldmilitaryalliances.Atthesametime,warintensityintheinternationalsystemincreases, asaconsequenceofglobalization,byatimelagofabout40years(Graphs1416).
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Graph14:crosscorrelationtimeseriesanalysisglobalizationongrowthintheworldsystem, 17412009 CCF Analysis globalization on growth

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Graph16:crosscorrelationtimeseriesanalysisglobalizationonwarintheworldsystem,14952009
CCF Analysis Globalization and war
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Reasonsforthisconflictproneprocessattheleveloftheworldcapitalistsystemaremani fold.Asthecriticalpoliticaleconomyoftheinternationalsystemdemonstrates,thebasicun derlyingreasonforthishastobesoughtinthegrowinginternalandinternationalsocialcontra dictions,whichglobalizationbringsabout.Ourrigorousdataanalysisofthelastfourdecades highlightsthefollowingmaintrends:
Ourtimeseriesinvestigationfrom1970to2003covers92.47%ofhumanitylivingin117 countriesandterritoriesoftheworld. Indeed, risingeconomicglobalizationisthedefiningelementofthedevelopmenttra jectoryofhumanityinthe1970s,1980s,and1990suntilthebeginningofthenewMilleni umfromSpainwiththemostrapidglobalizationprocesstoBurkinaFaso. 90.57%ofhu manity,livingin108countriesofthe117countrieswithcompletedatawereaffectedby thatprocess Onlyin9countries[Algeria,Malawi,Fiji,Gabon,Oman,Swaziland,Barbados,Bahamas, Iran]wewereconfrontedwithanegativetimeseriescorrelationbetweenthetimeaxisand economicglobalization,measuredbytheKOFIndex.Thesecountriesamounttojust1.90% oftheworldpopulation Thebravenewworldofrisingeconomicglobalizationisaworldof risinginequalities. 75.92%oftheglobalpopulationlivedincountries,wheretherewasarisinglineartrend towardsinequalityovertime.For54.05%ofhumanity,thistrendwasespeciallystrong,
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andthetimeseriescorrelationcoefficientofthetimeaxiswithinequalitywas0.500or above.Rankedbythemagnitudeofthisphenomenon,wefind60nations,fromLesotho, PortugalandLithuaniaatthetoprightthroughtoElSalvador,AustriaandtheUnitedStates ofAmerica.AmongtheEU27countries,thereare13nations,correspondingtothisvery strongtrendtowardsrisinginequalityovertime:Portugal,Lithuania,CzechRepublic,Ro mania,UnitedKingdom,Slovenia,Slovakia,Bulgaria,Hungary,Germany,Ireland,Poland, andAustria. 79.61%ofhumanity alsoexperiencedthedirefactthataccordingtotheavailabletime series,globalizationintheircountrieswaspositivelycorrelatedwithhigherinequality. For48.97%ofhumanity,livingin55countries,thistrendwasespeciallystrong.Thetime seriescorrelationwas0.500orabove.13ofthe27EUcountriesareamongthem andtheir experiencegivesatestimonyabouttheLatinAmericanizationoftheEuropeancontinent: Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Portugal, Poland, Bulgaria, Ireland, Germany, Lithuania,UnitedKingdom,Slovenia,Austria,andSlovakia. Only35countriesexperiencedsomepositivepromisesofglobalization,i.e.a negativetime seriescorrelationbetweenglobalizationandinequality .Theinhabitantsofthesecoun triesareafortunateglobalminority,andcomprise12.86%oftheglobalpopulation.Only7 EU27areamongthem,namelyLatvia,Netherlands,Spain,Cyprus,Sweden,Finland,and France.Interestinglyenough,inglobalizationcriticalFrance,thiseffectwasstrongest,and inLatvia,theeffectwasweakest.Otherbestpracticehighlydevelopedeconomieswitha verynotabletrendofglobalizationleadingtolessinequalityovertimeareSouthKoreaand Singapore Ourtimeseriesanalysisevaluatedthedatafrom117countrieswithcompletedata:
Albania, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, The, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belgium,Benin,Bolivia,Botswana,Brazil,Bulgaria,BurkinaFaso,Burundi,Cameroon,Canada,CentralAfrican Republic,Chile,China,Colombia,Congo,Rep.,CostaRica,Coted'Ivoire,Croatia,Cyprus,CzechRepublic, Denmark,DominicanRepublic,Ecuador,Egypt,ArabRep.,ElSalvador,Ethiopia,Fiji,Finland,France,Gabon, Germany,Ghana,Greece,Guatemala,Haiti,Honduras,Hungary,Iceland,India,Indonesia,Iran,IslamicRep., Ireland,Israel,Italy,Jamaica,Japan, Jordan, Kenya,Korea, Rep.,Kuwait,KyrgyzRepublic,Latvia, Lesotho, Lithuania,Luxembourg,Macedonia,FYR,Madagascar,Malawi,Malaysia,Malta,Mauritius,Mexico,Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Pakistan,Panama,PapuaNewGuinea,Peru,Philippines,Poland,Portugal,Romania,RussianFederation,Rwanda, Senegal,Singapore,SlovakRepublic,Slovenia,SouthAfrica,Spain,SriLanka,Swaziland,Sweden,SyrianArab Republic,Tanzania,Thailand,Togo,TrinidadandTobago,Tunisia,Turkey,Uganda,Ukraine,UnitedKingdom, UnitedStates,Uruguay,Venezuela,RB,Zambia,Zimbabwe
Iftherelationshipbetweenglobalizationandinequalityisaclearnumericallypositivetrade off,thetimeseriescorrelationmustbehigh.Atimeseriescorrelationcoefficienttothemag nitudeof<.50indicatesthe55countriesoftheworldeconomy,mostdevastatedbyglobaliza tion(inorderofdescendingmagnitudeofdevastation):

Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Portugal, Angola, Poland, China, Ecuador, Australia, Azerbaijan, Iran, IslamicRep.,Bulgaria,NewZealand,Ukraine,Ireland,Germany,Mongolia,Zambia,Turkey,Mexico,Lesotho, Croatia,Lithuania,Honduras,Brazil,Coted'Ivoire,RussianFederation,TrinidadandTobago,Venezuela,RB, Egypt,ArabRep.,Pakistan,UnitedKingdom,Canada,Chile,Slovenia,Uruguay,Nigeria,SyrianArabRepublic, Philippines, Colombia, Austria, Togo, Slovak Republic, Japan, Senegal, Guatemala, El Salvador, Kuwait, Cameroon,Panama,Peru,PapuaNewGuinea,
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Ourdataanalysisnowshowsthe61statesoftheworldthatmustberegardedasthechiefvic timsofglobalization(timeseriescorrelationglobalizationwithinequality>.25;globalization withtime>.25,andrisinginequalityovertime(r>.00)).

Table1: The61chiefvictimstatesofcurrentglobalization
country Albania Angola Argentina Australia Austria Azerbaijan Belgium Bolivia Brazil Bulgaria Cameroon Canada Chile China Colombia Coted'Ivoire Croatia CzechRepublic Denmark Ecuador Egypt,ArabRep. ElSalvador Germany Guatemala Honduras Hungary Ireland Israel Jamaica Japan Kuwait Lesotho Lithuania Mexico Mongolia NewZealand Nigeria Norway Pakistan Panama PapuaNewGuinea Peru Philippines
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r,globalization withinequality 0.455 0.947 0.286 0.894 0.662 0.892 0.285 0.477 0.821 0.880 0.578 0.729 0.723 0.913 0.673 0.808 0.835 0.966 0.479 0.912 0.754 0.589 0.866 0.606 0.828 0.966 0.870 0.403 0.446 0.649 0.587 0.845 0.835 0.851 0.864 0.872 0.700 0.321 0.754 0.573 0.503 0.508 0.686
r,globalization withtime 0.604 0.981 0.935 0.967 0.969 0.926 0.970 0.842 0.762 0.770 0.631 0.878 0.983 0.923 0.933 0.746 0.686 0.973 0.945 0.952 0.911 0.709 0.941 0.937 0.896 0.835 0.967 0.759 0.931 0.955 0.404 0.932 0.957 0.928 0.891 0.964 0.954 0.964 0.923 0.797 0.327 0.931 0.981
r,inequality withtime 0.341 0.868 0.462 0.831 0.557 0.949 0.399 0.677 0.678 0.840 0.928 0.834 0.733 0.935 0.600 0.843 0.658 0.949 0.372 0.822 0.863 0.566 0.776 0.645 0.662 0.796 0.737 0.825 0.697 0.785 0.637 0.977 0.955 0.831 0.302 0.808 0.442 0.377 0.774 0.763 0.615 0.609 0.705
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0.723 0.973 0.922 0.832 0.744 0.846 0.856 0.057 0.725 0.574 0.837 0.847 0.891 0.859 0.513 0.851 0.576 0.909
Thefollowing29countriesexperiencednorisinginequalityovertime,andalso,theirtime seriescorrelationcoefficientbetweenglobalizationandinequalitywasnegative.Furtherre searchwillhavetoestablish,whytheselucky29countriescouldescapefromthegeneralde teriorationofthesocialconditions,expressingthemselvesinrisinginequalityrates.
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Table2: The29luckyoneswhoescaped:nomajorinequalityincreasingeffectofglobalization,no increasinginequalityovertime

country Korea,Rep. Cyprus Singapore Benin Ethiopia Finland Kenya France Iceland Rwanda Sweden Congo,Rep. Indonesia Nepal Thailand Mozambique Mauritius Spain Tunisia Netherlands Haiti Malaysia Moldova Jordan Uganda Latvia CostaRica Zimbabwe KyrgyzRepublic r,globalization r,globalization withinequality withtime 0.791 0.966 0.532 0.722 0.938 0.886 0.795 0.954 0.394 0.833 0.668 0.964 0.657 0.720 0.723 0.980 0.653 0.916 0.707 0.713 0.587 0.977 0.875 0.821 0.522 0.897 0.689 0.885 0.516 0.952 0.453 0.941 0.591 0.908 0.342 0.986 0.394 0.952 0.340 0.981 0.228 0.842 0.306 0.974 0.317 0.702 0.154 0.851 0.023 0.788 0.174 0.927 0.018 0.933 0.208 0.847 0.264 0.738 r,inequality withtime 0.888 0.834 0.833 0.816 0.788 0.779 0.742 0.727 0.720 0.680 0.674 0.649 0.644 0.563 0.511 0.475 0.472 0.438 0.368 0.314 0.277 0.239 0.238 0.181 0.168 0.072 0.072 0.068 0.034
Conclusions
NeoKeynesians,inthetraditionofSteindlandKalecki,tendtoanalyzethecurrent Europeanpolicyalternativesinthefollowingway:
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Table3: TheneoKeynesianpolicyprescription,accordingtoGuger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen(2004), basedonSteindlandKalecki
Source:Guger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen,2004
Paul Boccara, over the last decades, provided a coherent framework of analysis, which reachedsimilarpolicyprescriptions,independentlyfromtheSteindl/Kaleckiapproachinpolit icaleconomy.ABoccaranworldviewwouldholdthatthecontradictionsofglobalcapitalism increaseovertime,ifmarketsareleftforthemselves.Boccaraisrightinstressingthatthissys temis,asheputsit,madbecauseitslogicofprofitabilityisreachingitsclimax.Capitalismas asystem,whichputsmakingmoneybeforeandagainstpeoplelives,needstobequestioned.It isreallyfutiletospeakofmoralityandtransparencywithoutattackingthelogicofthesys tem.Thereisindeednopossibilitytogoingbacktocapitalismofourgrandpas,becausetheex acerbatingtransformationsareirreversible.Ourownanalysis,usingadvancedstatisticaltech niques,hasshowninadditionthefollowingthings: 1) liberalandMarxistanalysesofalldenominationsarerightinemphasizingthesevere cyclicalfluctuationsofthecapitalistsystemonaglobalscale 2) thereisaworldpoliticalandworldstrategicswingofsocietalsystem,whichaccompanies theeconomicupsanddowns 3) andthreeandthisisthemostbreathtakingaspectofitallthereisastrikingsimilarityin thelogicoftheglobalizedperiodofthesecondhalfofthe19thCenturywithourage. Globalizationandmonopolies,tobesure,andBoccarawasrightinemphasizingthisfrom the1970onwardsleadtowardsstagnation.Somegreatpoliticaleconomistsoftheinstabilityof theinternationalorder,likeRosaLuxemburgandOttoBauer,foresawthedarkcloudsofmajor innercapitalistwarsonthehorizon,andinthelightofouranalysis,wearenottoofaraway
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alreadyfromsuchdarktimes,ifthelogicofmadnesscalledcontemporaryglobalizationisnot corrected.
Appendix1:EconomicGrowthintheWorldSystem,20092010andafter
Basedon: IMFpredictiongrowthratein2009(issuedApril2009) IMFpredictiongrowthratein2010(issuedApril2009) residualmeasure:crisisrecovery2010visavis2009(basedonIMFprognosis, April 2009) resilienceofeconomicgrowthduringthecrisis(regressionresiduals:growth902005 >growth2009,basedonIMFprognosis,April2009)7
Predictedeconomicgrowth2010
econ. growth 2010
IMF forecasts
July 2009 4,1 bis 2,9 bis 1,6 bis 0,4 bis -3 bis 16,4 4,1 2,9 1,6 0,4 (37) (39) (29) (35) (39)
Bisisshorthandforrangingfrom.to
7 Vid.<http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx>
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econ. growth 2010
IMF forecasts
July 2009 4,1 bis 16,4 2,9 bis 4,1 1,6 bis 2,9 0,4 bis 1,6 -3 bis 0,4 (37) (39) (29) (35) (39)
Bisisshorthandforrangingfrom.To Theresilienceofpredictedeconomicgrowth2009visavisearliergrowth
DYN GDP pc 1990/2005/2009
Residuals DYN 1990-2005 -->

DYN 2009 3,5 to 9,2 1,5 to 3,5 -0,7 to 1,5 -3,2 to -0,7 -11,3 to -3,2 (29) (36) (33) (34) (33)
Bisisshorthandforrangingfrom.To
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DYN GDP pc 1990/2005/2009
Residuals DYN 1990-2005 -->

DYN 2009 3,5 to 9,2 1,5 to 3,5 -0,7 to 1,5 -3,2 to -0,7 -11,3 to -3,2 (29) (36) (33) (34) (33)
Bisisshorthandforrangingfrom.To
Statisticalsources
Economicgrowth:IMFgrowthdataandgrowthpredictions,datadownloadApril2009, http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php Globalization:ETHZurichglobalizationtimeseriesdata,datadownloadJanuary2010, http://globalization.kof.ethz.ch/static/rawdata/globalization_2010_short.xls Inequality:TheilIndexofInequality,basedonpaymentin21industrialsectors;calculated fromUNIDOsourcesinUniversityofTexasInequalityProject(datadownloadJanuary2010 ),http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/data.html Unemployment:unemploymentas%ofthecivilianlabourforce: http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx Wardata:Thewardata14951945(1975)werereportedinGoldstein,1988,thedata1946 2002arebasedonthewardatabaseasreportedbyPRIOOslo: http://www.prio.no/page/CSCW_research_detail/Programme_detail_CSCW/9649/45656.ht m,recalculatedfortheaimsofacomparisonofgreatpowerbattlefatalitiesfromallwars. GreatPowers:themembersoftheUNSecurityCouncilplusGermany. WorldIndustrialproductiongrowth,17412009:Calculationsbasedonthedataprovidedby Goldstein(17401974;basedonGoldstein,1988)andUNIDOdata,providedbyDr.Tetsuo Yamada,UNIDOstatisticaldepartment(19752004).After2004,weuseddatafromthe
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UnitedStatesCentralIntelligenceAgencyWorldFactbook,openlyavailableathttps://www. cia.gov/library/publications/theworldfactbook/
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PrinciplesandUnstableDynamicsofCapitalism.Cheltenham,UKandNorthampton,US: EdwardElgar.Pp.266291. OHara,P.A.2001.LongWavesofGrowthandDevelopment,inP.A.OHara(ed), EncyclopediaofPoliticalEconomy.LondonandNewYork:Routledge,pp.673677.Paper edition. OHara,P.A.2003a.PrinciplesofPoliticalEconomy:IntegratingThemesfromtheSchoolsof Heterodoxy.WorkingPaper,GlobalPoliticalEconomyResearchUnit,Economics Department,CurtinUniversity.http://pohara.homestead.com/files/principles.doc. OHara,P.A.2003b.RecentchangestotheIMF,WTOandSPD:emergingglobalmodeof regulationorsocialstructureofaccumulationforlongwaveupswing?Reviewof InternationalPoliticalEconomy,Volume10,Number3,August2003,pp.481519. OHara,P.A.2004a.ANewFamilyCommunitySocialStructuresofAccumulationforLong WaveUpswingintheUnitedStates.ForumforSocialEconomy,vol34,no2,December. OHara,P.A.2004b.CulturalContradictionsofGlobalCapitalism.JournalofEconomic Issues,2004,vol.38,no.2,pp.413420. OHara,P.A.2005a.ContradictionsofNeoliberalGlobalisation:TheImportanceofIdeologies andValuesinPolicalEconomy.JournalofInterdisciplinaryEconomics,vol.16,no.3,pp. 341365. OHara,P.A.2005b.GrowthandDevelopmentintheGlobalPoliticalEconomy.Social StructuresofAccumulationandModesofRegulation.OxfordandNewYork:Routledge, TaylorandFrancisGroup. Schumpeter,J.A.1908.WesenundHauptinhaltdertheoretischenNationalkonomieLeipzig: Duncker&Humblot.[TheNatureandEssenceofEconomicTheory.Rutgers,NewJersey: TransactionPublishers,2009]. Schumpeter,J.A.1912.TheoriederwirtschaftlichenEntwicklung.Leipzig:Duncker& Humblot[TheTheoryofeconomicdevelopment:aninquiryintoprofits,capital,credit, interestandthebusinesscycle/byJosephA.Schumpeter;translatedfromtheGermanby RedversOpie.Cambridge(Mass.),HarvardUniversityPress,1934;1969edition:The TheoryofEconomicDevelopment:AnInquiryintoProfits,Capital,Credit,Interest,andthe BusinessCycle.LondonandOxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1969.TranslatedbyRedvers Opie.) Schumpeter,J.A.1939.Businesscycles.Atheoretical,historical,andstatisticalanalysisofthe capitalistprocess.NewYork,London:McGrawHillBookCompany,inc. Schumpeter,J.A.1942.TheProcessofCreativeDestruction.London:Unwin. Schumpeter,J.A.1950.Capitalism,SocialismandDemocracy.ThirdEdition.NewYork& London:Harper&Row,1975. Schumpeter,J.A.1954.Historyofeconomicanalysis.NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress. Silverberg,G.2007.Longwaves:conceptual,empiricalandmodellingissues.InElgar companiontoneoSchumpeterianeconomics(ed.byHorstHanusch;AndreasPyka). Cheltenham:Elgar,800819.
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20.PAUL BOCCARA'S ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM - Tausch

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20.PAUL BOCCARA'S ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CAPITALISM - Tausch

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ENTELEQUIA

PAULBOCCARASANALYSISOFGLOBALCAPITALISM. THERETURNOFTHEBOURBONS,ANDTHEBREAKDOWN OFTHEBRUSSELS/PARISNEOLIBERALCONSENSUS

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4 BasictextsIto,1993;Meko2009;aswellasNagakawa,2006;Warner,1998;Wei,2006;forcriticalviewson earlierresearchfromthestandpointofeconometrictimeseriesanalysisSilverberg,2005,2007;furthermore: Devezas,2006;andTausch/Ghymers,2006.

Inequality:TheilIndexofInequality,basedonpaymentin21industrialsectors; calculatedfromUNIDOsourcesinUniversityofTexasInequalityProject(data downloadJanuary2010),http://utip.gov.utexas.edu/data.html

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Spectral density - world ind. prod. Growth, 1741-2009

2,0E2 3,0E2 4,0E2

ACF analysis world production growth, 1741-2009

-1,0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131141

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Wealsoperformedaslidingcorrelationanalysis,basedonaprojected50yeartimeseries trendlinefrom1830andfrom1934onwards.Thesimilarityinthe indentedWshapedtrend isinourviewbreathtaking,andwemustbefastapproachingtheevilabyssattheendofthe 19thCentury,which,weallknow,ledtoWorldWarI,dontwe?

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4,0E2 6,0 8,0 E2 E2

-1,0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141

Graph11and12comparetheresultsfromspectralanalysisandanalysisofautocorrelation. Whilespectralanalysissuggestsnoreallongercycle,theanalysisofautocorrelationwouldsug gestan80yearand135yearcycle.

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Spectral density - Attinas defence pact index, 1815-1999

1,5E5 1,0E5 5,0E4

-1,0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141

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Graph14:crosscorrelationtimeseriesanalysisglobalizationongrowthintheworldsystem, 17412009 CCF Analysis globalization on growth

Lag-Number Graph15:crosscorrelationtimeseriesanalysisglobalizationondefencepactsintheworld system,18152009 CCF Analysis Globalization and Defence Pacts

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CCF Analysis Globalization and war

1,0 Borders of significance

Iftherelationshipbetweenglobalizationandinequalityisaclearnumericallypositivetrade off,thetimeseriescorrelationmustbehigh.Atimeseriescorrelationcoefficienttothemag nitudeof<.50indicatesthe55countriesoftheworldeconomy,mostdevastatedbyglobaliza tion(inorderofdescendingmagnitudeofdevastation):

Ourdataanalysisnowshowsthe61statesoftheworldthatmustberegardedasthechiefvic timsofglobalization(timeseriescorrelationglobalizationwithinequality>.25;globalization withtime>.25,andrisinginequalityovertime(r>.00)).

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Table2: The29luckyoneswhoescaped:nomajorinequalityincreasingeffectofglobalization,no increasinginequalityovertime

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Table3: TheneoKeynesianpolicyprescription,accordingtoGuger/Marterbauer/Walterskirchen(2004), basedonSteindlandKalecki

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econ. growth 2010

econ. growth 2010

DYN GDP pc 1990/2005/2009