Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Analyst Speak

Bullion Remained Sideways For The Entire Weak.

ECONOMIC DATA
Date
Mon Aug 5 Tue Aug 6

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Time
7:30pm 6:00pm 7:30pm

Currency
USD USD USD USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Trade Balance JOLTS Job Openings IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism FOMC Member Evans Speaks Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction Consumer Credit m/m Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage 30-y Bond Auction Wholesale Inventories m/m

Forecast
53.2 -43.1B

Previous
52.2 -45.0B 3.83M

47.9

47.1

10:30pm Wed Aug 7 8:00pm 10:30pm Thu Aug 8 12:30am 6:00pm 8:00pm 10:30pm Fri Aug 9 7:30pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

0.4M 2.67|2.6 15.3B 336K 19.6B 326K 59B 3.66|2.3 0.5% -0.5%

Weekly Report | Page 2

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

FUNDAMENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW

GOLD HEADS FOR BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS IN A MONTH
Gold rebounded on Friday as the dollar dropped after mixed signals about the U.S. labour market quashed prospects the Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus as early as next month. Losses over the past five sessions pushed Gold towards its worst weekly performance in a month. Strong jobless benefits and factory activity data, along with betterthan-expected U.S. GDP numbers, bolstered the case for a stimulus wind-down. FUNDAMENTALS

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Spot Gold gains 1.5 percent to $1,312.56 an ounce, bringing losses this week to around 1.8 percent. Gold fell earlier to $1,283.29 - its lowest since July 19.Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.7 percent to 921.05 tonnes on Thursday, hitting fresh four-year lows.Outflows from the top eight Gold ETFs tracked by Reuters have totalled 19 million ounces so far this year, or about $25 billion at current prices.Physical demand has held up reasonably well despite the volatility in prices.

CRUDE OIL SLIPS AS U.S.JOB DATA DISAPPOINTS,BUT ENDS WITH 2.2% WEEKLY GAIN
West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped, paring a weekly advance, as U.S. employers added fewer workers than anticipated last month.Futures fell as much as 1.3 percent on Labor Department figures showing that payrolls rose 162,000 in July, the smallest gain in four months. A 185,000 increase was the median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.WTI Crude for September delivery declined 92 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $106.97 a barrel on the NYMEX prices are headed for a 2.2 percent gain this week. Crude oil rose 2.7 percent to $107.89 yesterday, the most since July 10 and the highest close since July 19. FUNDAMENTALS Crude oil futures trimmed gains on Wednesday, after a report from the U.S. government showed that oil supplies rose unexpectedly last week.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. Crude oil inventories rose by 0.4 million barrels in the week ended July 26, disappointing expectations for a decline of 2.3 million barrels.Concern over supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and Nigeria prevented heavier losses.Libya's oil exports continued to flow at less than half normal rates on Friday as strikes and protests shut major oil terminals in the North African OPEC producer - triggering one of the worst disruptions in the past year.These outages helped trim OPEC output to a four-month low in July, a Reuters survey published on Wednesday showed.OPEC output averaged 30.25 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 30.38 million bpd in June.

COPPER FUTURES RALLY TO 1-WEEK HIGH AFTER EURO ZONE, CHINA PMI DATA
Copper rose to its highest level in more than a week on Friday, as optimism about the outlook for the global economy gathered pace, with U.S. labour market data due later in the session likely to provide further direction for industrial metal prices.Markets have been supported this week by a statement by the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy continues to recover but is still in need of support, offering no signs that it is planning to curb its bond-buying stimulus at its next meeting in September.The European Central Bank (ECB)affirmed interest rates could fall further from record lows.Non-farm payrolls were expected to have risen by 184,000 in July, with the jobless rate seen ticking down to 7.5 percent. INVENTORY Three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose in intraday trade to its highest since July 24 at $7,050 a tonne. It traded at $7,020 a tonne , up from a last bid of $6,998 a tonne on Thursday. The metal used in power and construction is on track to rise 2.5 percent for the week, its first gain in three weeks. It registered a monthly gain of 1.9 percent in July.Nickel miners are clinging to plans to maintain production, despite a growing supply glut and prices around four-year lows, raising the risk of more writedowns and losses being unveiled in the current financial reporting season.Nickel, untraded in official rings, was bid at $13,870 from a close of $13,895 on Thursday. Tin, also untraded in official rings, was bid at $20,825 from $20,920. Aluminium, untraded in rings, was bid at $1,817 from $1,812.Zinc traded at $1,872 from $1,855, and Lead traded at $2,123 from $2,106.

Weekly Report | Page 3

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

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(DECEMBER)

GOLD

Expert
Opinion

Script Levels

R3 1423

R2 1367

R1 1340

PP 1311

S1 1284

S2 1255

S3 1199

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week COMEX Gold is technically Consolidating on charts.Gold rebounded on Friday as the dollar dropped after mixed signals about the U.S. labour market quashed prospects the Federal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus as early as next month.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy.If COMEX Gold sustains below the level of $1310 an ounce,then below $1285 it can test the level of $1270/$1255/$1240 an ounce. And in MCX, If Gold October future sustains below 27600 then below 27400 it can test the level of 27200/27000/26800.Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Supports & Resistance Major support in COMEX Gold is $1250 and $1210. Major resistance in COMEX Gold is $1380 and $1440. Major support in MCX Gold is 27000 and 26400. Major resistance in MCX Gold is 29000 and 29800.

Weekly Report | Page 4

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

GOLD HEADS FOR BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS IN A MONTH

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SILVER
(SEPTEMBER)

Expert
Opinion
SILVER FUTURES BOUNCES ON WEAK U.S. JOBS REPORT,TRIM GAINS

Script Levels

R3 2192

R2 2086

R1 2040

PP 1980

S1 1934

S2 1874

S3 1768

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver was technically consolidating on charts.Silver COMEX for September delivery was down by 2.30% at $19.990 a troy ounce on Friday. Silver ended with weekly gains of more than 2.5 %.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If COMEX Silver sustains below the level of $20.20 an ounce, then below $19.50 it can test the level of $19.00/$18.50/$18.00 an ounce. And in MCX, If Silver September future sustains below 41200 then below 40600 it can test the level of 40100/39600/39100.Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Supports & Resistance Major support in COMEX Silver is $18.00 and $17.20. Major resistance in COMEX Silver is $21.40 and $22.20. Major support in MCX Silver is 39000 and 37600. Major resistance in MCX Silver is 44000 and 45200.

Weekly Report | Page 5

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

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CRUDE
(SEPTEMBER)

Expert
Opinion

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

118.32 112.25 109.69 106.18 103.62 100.11 94.04

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week NYMEX Crude oil was in consolidation range.Crude dropped, paring a weekly advance, as U.S. employers added fewer workers than anticipated last month.Crude prices are headed for a 2.2 percent gain this week. Crude oil rose 2.7 percent to $107.89 yesterday, the most since July 10 and the highest close since July 19.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If NYMEX Crude sustains below the level of $106.00 a barrel, then below $104.80 a barrel it can test the level of $103.60/$102.40/$101.20 a barrel and in MCX if Crude August Contact sustains below 6480 then below 6430 it can test the level of 6380/6330/6280 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss. Supports & Resistance Major support in NYMEX Crude oil is $103 and $100. Major resistance in NYMEX Crude oil is $111 and $114. Major support in MCX Crude oil is 6350 and 6200. Major resistance in MCX Crude oil is 6780 and 6900.

Weekly Report | Page 6

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

CRUDE OIL SLIPS AS U.S.JOB DATA DISAPPOINTS,BU T ENDS WITH 2.2% WEEKLY GAIN

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COPPER
(SEPTEMBER)

Expert
Opinion
COPPER FUTURES RALLY TO 1-WEEK HIGH AFTER EURO ZONE, CHINA PMI DATA

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

347.41 330.41 324.22 313.41 307.22 296.41 279.41

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week, Copper COMEX was consolidation on charts.Copper rose to its highest level in more than a week on Friday, as optimism about the outlook for the global economy gathered pace, with U.S. labour market data due later in the session likely to provide further direction for industrial metal prices.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If COMEX Copper sustains below the level of $318, then below $312 it can test the level of $307/$302/$297.In MCX, Copper August Contract sustains below 425 then below 420 it can test the level of 415/410/405 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss. Support and Resistance Major support in COMEX Copper is $305 and $295. Major resistance in COMEX Copper is $330 and $340. Major support in MCX Copper is 410 and 400. Major resistance in MCX Copper is 440 and 450.

Weekly Report | Page 7

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

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NATURAL GAS
(SEPTEMBER)

Expert
Opinion

Script Levels

R3 3.707

R2 3.549

R1 3.453

PP 3.391

S1 3.295

S2 3.233

S3 3.075

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week U.S Natural gas was consolidating on charts.Natural gas futures added to losses on Thursday, tumbling to the lowest level since February after a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that natural gas supplies rose more-than-expected last week.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. Next week If NYMEX Natural Gas sustains below the level of $3.400 then below the level of $3.300,it can test the level of $3.250/$3.200/$3.315.In MCX, If Natural Gas August sustains below the 208 level then below 203 it can test the level of 198/193/188 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss. Support and Resistance Major support in NYMEX Natural Gas is $3.100 and $2.8000. Major resistance in NYMEX Natural Gas is $3.800 and $4.100. Major support in MCX Natural Gas is 190 and 180. Major resistance in MCX Natural Gas is 220 and 230.

Weekly Report | Page 8

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

NATURAL GAS FUTURES TUMBLE TO 5-MONTH LOW AFTER U.S. SUPPLY DATA

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USD/INR

Expert
Opinion

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

64.807 62.567 61.703 60.320 59.463 58.087 55.847

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last Week USD/INR was consolidating on charts. The INR fell to a record closing low on Friday, posting its worst week in 22 months, raising concerns the central bank is losing the battle to prop up the currency while the government has yet to take any meaningful measures to bring in inflows.

WORK STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy.Next Week If USD/INR sustain below 61.000 then below 60.2000 it can test the level of 59.700/59.200/58.700 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss. Support and resistance For the upcoming week 58.5000 and 57.0000 will act as crucial supports and 62.0000 and 63.2000 will act as crucial resistance in USD/INR.

Weekly Report | Page 9

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Weekly Chart

INDIAN RUPEE AT RECORD CLOSING LOW; WORST WEEK IN NEARLY 2 YEARS

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

SYMBOL EXCH ANGE MCX EXPIRY DATE 05 OCT -2013 COMMODITY NAME GOLD PRICE UNIT PREV CLOSE 27500 OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE QTY TRADED 141311 GOLD RS. /10GM. 27473 28676 27385 28047

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NET CHANG E 547

OPEN INTER EST 12200

WEEKLY TURNOVER ( Rs. in Lakhs) 3179821.88

SILVER

MCX

05 SEP -2013

SILVER

RS. / KG.

41050

40881

42600

40651

41969

158455

919

9467

1970079.17

COPPER

MCX

30 AUG -2013 19 AUG 2013 -

COPPER

RS. / KG.

408.35

408.4

432.3

406.4

428.2

300581

19.85

22566

1259475.59

CRUDE OIL

MCX

CRUDE OIL

RS. / BBL.

6199

6202

6637

6186

6523

570074

324

49704

3016501.68

NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC

MCX MCX MCX

27 AUG -2013 30 AUG -2013 30 AUG -2013

NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC

RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

212.9 122.2 109.2

212.6 122.2 109.6

213.2 130.25 113.95

203.7 121.7 108.75

204.6 128.95 113.15

214175 62451 32643

-8.3 6.75 3.95

12260 8471 3245

558671.05 396093.74 182560.34

NICKEL ALUMINIUM

MCX MCX

30 AUG -2013 30 AUG -2013

NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

825.3 105.95

826.6 106.15

858 110.25

818 105.8

850.9 109.25

79797 22722

25.6 3.3

6141 2796

167824.65 123208.59

INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

COMMODITY GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE NATURAL GAS USD/INR CLOSING PRICE 1317.15 19.92 3.15 107.16 3.315 60.79 % CHANGE -0.67 0.96 -9.22 2.79 -10.89 2.51

Weekly Report | Page 10

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

Weekly Gainers
Commodity LEAD CRUDE COPPER Expiry Date 30 AUG-2013 19 AUG-2013 30 AUG-2013 Closing Price 128.95 6523 428.2 % Change 5.52 5.22 4.86

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Weekly Loser
Commodity NATURAL GAS Expiry Date 27 AUG-2013 Closing Price 204.6 % Change -3.89

WEEKLY PIVOTS
SCRIPTS GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINIUM R3 30435.67 45331.67 467.48 7242.67 228.93 141.82 121.03 913.77 116.23 R2 29144.67 43382.67 441.58 6791.67 219.43 133.27 115.83 873.77 111.78 R1 28322.33 42216.33 424.97 6495.33 216.17 127.73 112.52 849.53 108.87 PP 27853.67 41433.67 415.68 6340.67 209.93 124.72 110.63 833.77 107.33 S1 27031.33 40267.33 399.07 6044.33 206.67 119.18 107.32 809.53 104.42 S2 26562.67 39484.67 389.78 5889.67 200.43 116.17 105.43 793.77 102.88 S3 25271.67 37535.67 363.88 5438.67 190.93 107.62 100.23 753.77 98.43

Weekly Report | Page 11

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

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