1.

(a)

(A1)(A1)(A1) (C3) Note: Award (A1) for 0.25, (A1) for 0.1 and 0.9, (A1) for 0.05 and 0.95. (b) P(late) = 0.25 0.1 + 0.75 0.05 (A1)(ft)(M1) Note: Award (A1)(ft) for two correct products from their diagram and award (M1) for addition of their two products.

1 , 6.25% = 0.0625 16

(A1)(ft) (C3)
[6]

2.

(a)

(i)

0 a = 0 4 3 b = 4 (0.75, 75%) 4 3 5 4 12 3 , 0.6, 60% 20 5

(A1)

(ii)

(A2)(G2)

(iii)

(M1)(A1) (A1)(ft)(G2) Note: Award (M1) for multiplying two probabilities, (A1) for using their probabilities, (A1) for answer.

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

(b)

(A1)(A1)(A1) Note: Award (A1) for each pair.

(c)

(i)

(M1)(M1) 5 1 , 0.25, 25% 20 4 = (A1)(ft)(G2) Note: Award (M1) for two products seen with numbers from the problem, (M1) for adding two products. Follow through from their tree diagram. 1 3 2 10 1 4 3 = 5 (0.6, 60%)

1 3 1 1 + 2 10 2 5

(ii)

(M1)(A1)

(A1)(ft)(G2) Note: Award (M1) for substituted conditional probability formula, (A1) for correct substitution. Follow through from their part (b) and part (c) (i).
[15]

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

3.

(a)

(A3) Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair.

(b)

77 , 61.6% 0.7 0.88 = 0.616 125 (M1)(A1)(ft)(G2) Note: Award (M1) for multiplying the correct probabilities.
0.3 0.25 + 0.7 0.88 (M1)(M1) Notes: Award (M1) for a relevant two-factor product, could be S NP OR L NP. Award (M1) for summing 2 two-factor products.

(c)

691 , 69.1% 1000 P = 0.691

Notes: (ft) from their answer to (b).

(A1)(ft)(G2)

(d)

0.616 0.691

(M1)(A1) Note: Award (M1) for substituted conditional probability formula, (A1) for correct substitution.

616 , 89.1% P = 0.891 691

(A1)(ft)(G2)
[11]

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

4.

(a)

(A1)(A1)(A1) (C3) Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair. (b) 0.7 0.1

7 = 0.07 ( 100 , 7%)

(c) 0.3 0.8 + 0.07 31 = 0.31 ( 100 , 31%)

(A1)(ft) (C1) (M1)

(A1)(ft) (C2) Note: In (b) and (c) follow through from sensible answers only i.e. not a probability greater than one.
[6]

5.

(a)

(i)

P (a dog is grey and has the yellow bowl)

1 1 1 = = (= 0.111) 3 3 9

(M1)(A1)(G2)

Note: The (M1) is for multiplying two values along any branch of the tree. (ii)

2 ( = 0.667(3 sf) or 0.6) P (dog does not get yellow bowl) = 3

(A1)

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

(b)

(i)

1 1 , The tree diagram should show the values 2 2 for the brown branch(A1) 1 3 , and 4 4 in the correct positions for the grey branch. (A1)(ft)
Note: Follow through if the branches are interchanged.

(ii)

P (the dog is grey or is playing with a stick, but not both)

1 3 2 1 = + 3 4 3 2 = 7 ( = 0.583) 12

(M1) (A1)(ft)(G1)

Notes: The (M1) is for showing two correct products (whether added or not). Follow through from b(i).

1 1 + Award (M1) for 3 4 (must be a sum).

(iii) P (dog is grey given that it is playing with stick) 1 1 p (G S ) 1 5 3 4 = or P( S ) 2 1 1 1 12 12 + 3 2 3 4

(M1)(A1)(ft)

Note: (M1) for substituted conditional probability formula, (A1) for correct substitutions.

1 = ( = 0.2) 5
(iv)

(A1)(ft)(G2)

P (grey and fed from yellow bowl and not playing with stick) 3 1 1 3 1 = ( = = 0.0833 3 sf). 36 = 3 3 4 12 (M1) (A1)(ft)(G1) Note: (M1) is for product of 3 reasonable probability values.

9
[12]

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

6.

(a) (A1)

(A1)

(A1)

(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for correct tree structure, (A1) for each complementary pair.

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

(b)

(i)

1 1 2 10 1 (0.05, 5%) 20
Note: Award (M1) for correct product.

(M1) (A1)(ft)(G2)

(ii)

1 1 1 1 + 2 10 2 5

(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for finding two products, (M1) for adding two products.

=
1 1 2 5 3 20

3 (0.15, 15%) 20

(A1)(ft)(G2)

(c)

(M1) Note: Award (M1) for using the conditional probability formula.

2 = , (0.667) 3

(A1)(A1)(ft) or (G3) Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.
[12]

7.

(a) 0 .9 0 .6 5 0 .3 5 0 .1 0 .8 0 .2 0 .6 0 .4 1 (A1)(A1) (C2)

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition

(b)

0.65 0.1 (= 0.065) 0.35 0.8 0.4 (= 0.112) 0.35 0.2 1 the 1 can be implied (= 0.07) 0.247 Note: No (ft) for any probabilities greater than 1.

(A1) (A1) (A1)(ft) (A1)(ft) (C4)

[6]

8.

(a)

(A1)(A1)(A1) Note: (A1) for 0.8, (A1) for 0.7, (A1) for 0.6 and 0.4. (b) (i) (ii) 0.2 0.7 = 0.14 Note: (M1) for multiplying correct numbers. 0.2 0.3 + 0.8 0.6 = 0.54 (M1)(A1)(ft) (G2) (M1)(M1)

(A1)(ft)(G2) Note: (M1) for each correct product (use candidates tree), (A1)(ft) for answer.
[8]

IB Questionbank Mathematical Studies 3rd edition