Pak. J. Agri., Agril. Engg., Vet. Sci.

, 27 (2), 2011

ISSN 1023-1072
Pak. J. Agri., Agril. Engg., Vet. Sci., 2011, 27 (2): 115-124

ESTABLISHING INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY CURVES FOR SISTAN AND BALOCHISTAN PROVINCES OF IRAN
1

M. A. Zainudini , M. J. Marriott M. S. Mirjat , and A. S. Chandio

1 2

Faculty of Fisheries, Chabahar Maritime University, Iran School of Computing, Information Technology and Engineering, University of East London 3 Department of Irrigation and Drainage, FAE, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam. Pakistan

ABSTRACT
Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves encompass the estimates of rainfall intensities of different durations and recurrence intervals. These curves are used by engineers to create design of a risk assessment of dams and bridges, flood plain management systems, roof and storm water drainage systems, storm sewers, storage structures, runoff canals, etc. They can be used as a prediction tool to identify the likelihood with which a certain rainfall rate or a specific volume of flow will recur in future, that will create flooding havoc in an area. In the present study, IDF curves using rainfall data from Sistan and Balochistan, different durations have been developed and presented. The results have been compared with analysis of data from other countries. The results based on shorter duration rainfall data are plausible and can potentially be useful for design purposes; however, a detailed analysis using comprehensive data sets is needed. Keywords: Flooding, frequency, hydrograph, intensity, rainfall, runoff

INTRODUCTION
In many hydrologic design projects the determination of the rainfall event is a prerequisite. The most common approach to determine the design storm event involves a relationship between rainfall intensity (or depth), duration, and the frequency (or return period) appropriate for specific location. Rainfall intensity duration frequency (IDF) relationship comprises the estimates of rainfall intensities of different durations and recurrence intervals . The IDF curves are graphical presentation of average rainfall depth that falls per time increment. Rainfall intensity is plotted on the y-axis and is measured in inches per hour or in mm/hr. Storm duration is plotted on x-axis and is measured in minutes. Once established, these curves can be used as a prediction tool for an area that may
Corresponding author: mazainudini@yahoo.com

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be flooded, to identify the likelihood with which a certain rainfall rate or a specific volume of flow will recur in the future. IDF curves usually represent 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100-year return periods. They are used to characterize rainfall pattern for a given area and determine the intensity of a rain that falls over that area. For example, high rainfall intensity indicates that its raining hard and low rainfall intensity indicates that its raining lightly. The IDF curves are generated with rainfall records collected at a specific monitoring location. The rainfall events from the past are analysed and the re-occurrence periods are determined for various standard return periods, for example, rainfall event that statistically occurs every 10 years. An intensity-duration-frequency curve graph represents the probability of occurrence of rainfall event thus a graph with line representing10-year would mean that the rainfall event would have a probability of occurrence once every 10 years. Another way to put it is that the probability of a 10-year magnitude storm (or greater) occurring in any given year is 1/10 or 10%, and of a 50-year storm occurring 1/50 or 2%. It should be noted that the information presented in the graph is based on statistical analysis, not a prediction of actual storms. Design applications of IDF curves The IDF curves are most often used to express the severity of a single rainfall event. They are required for the design and risk assessment of dams and bridges, for flood plain management systems, design of roof and storm water drainage systems, design of storm sewers, design of storage structures and runoff canals, etc. They are also useful in soil conservation studies. The curves are used in design with the assumption that past rainfall statistics continue to represent rainfall statistics into the future. Using IDF curves, runoff generating from catchments is usually calculated by methods such as rational or modified rational. The duration of rainfall to provide peak runoff is usually selected as the time of concentration of the catchment, although for storage analysis for longer durations and hydrograph methods are required. The durations relevant to local drainage and flooding are likely to be measured in minutes or hours for small streams and in days for larger river catchments. Longer duration data is thus more relevant to water resources considerations. A typical system will require a standard design infrastructure that carries maximum capacity in terms of rainfall return periods. In big cities, storm sewers are typical designed to carry a minimum of the 5-year storm. It means that all the runoff from a 5-year storm from the area upstream of the sewer system must fit in the sewer without overflowing onto the road. For a specific location and set of site specific characteristics, particular storm duration will produce the greatest rain effect, usually the highest peak runoff flow or greatest rainfall volume. Circumstances can include whether an area is forest or urban or whether the location is in the mountains or in the middle of a prairie. Testing the various storm durations will determine which statistical storm will produce the greatest effect (governing storm duration). Once the duration of governing storm recurring in period of time is known then storm water management facilities or flood elevations structures could be designed well in advance in order to make sure that the worst case scenario dealt with.

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The work in this study was carried out near the border of Iran and Pakistan, extending south from Afghanistan to the Gulf of Oman. This paper analysis shorter duration rainfall intensity frequency curves, as obtained by Zainudini (2007). Such curves will help to determine peak runoff calculations for drainage and flood alleviation purposes. The present work is continuation/extension of a previous study (Marriott and Zainudini, 2006) that considered the monthly rainfall totals for the Iranian Province of Sistan and Balochistan.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was conducted in the Sistan and Balochistan provinces of Iran at 12 selected locations. The area is located near the borders of Iran and Pakistan, extending south from Afghanistan to the Gulf of Oman. The exact locations are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Location of study area in south of Iran (Sistan and Balochistan) The short duration rainfall data for 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr, 3 hr, 6 hr and 12 hr were collected from 12 different stations in the study area as shown in the Figure 1. Since insufficient data was available at the time from any one site for conventional frequency analysis the data were pooled taking a station-year approach to extend the effective record length. Data were independent and from a meteorologically homogeneous zone, thus yielded as equivalent to a single long record. The annual maximum values, for a given duration were ranked, and fitted to a Gumbel distribution, using the Gringorten plotting position formula. This approach has also been used by Wheater and Bell (1983) in their analysis using the data from Northern Oman. Nouh (1987) also mentioned this approach, but he favored an alternative method for analysis of rainfall in Saudi Arabia. He

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produced growth curves for return periods of 5 to 100 years, and presented areal 2 reduction factors for areas greater than 10 km . Wheater and Bell (1987) presented an IDF relationship for return periods of 2 to 500 years, with the latter dotted as a more tentative result. They noted that the results for 1-year return period are not possible by this method, as the Gumbel reduced variate is undefined at this value. The derivation of a preliminary intensity duration frequency relationship is important as it enables us to assign a return period that a flood storm will recur and also allows to analysis the intensities for the short duration rainfall for a range of return periods which could subsequently be used in the flood protection works. Generally, three steps are required to the formulation and construction of IDF curves using data from the recording stations (Le et al., 2006). A Pearson type III distribution is usually used for frequency analysis. In this distribution a Probability Distribution Function or Cumulative Distribution Function to each group comprised of the data values for a specific duration is fitted. It is possible to relate the maximum rainfall intensity for each time interval with the corresponding return period from the cumulative distribution function. Given a return period T, its corresponding cumulative frequency F can be calculated using relation: F = 1-1/T or T = 1/1-F. Once the cumulative frequency is known, the maximum rainfall intensity is then determined using a chosen theoretical distribution function (e.g. GEV, Gumbel, Pearson type III distributions). Following this procedure, the rainfall intensities for 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr, 3 hr, 6 hr and 12 hr duration were calculated for selected return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, in this study. This was done by using the probability distribution functions derived. Finally, the empirical formula was used to construct the rainfall IDF curves. The derivation of short duration rainfall was carried out using the station year approach. Marriott and Zainudini (2006) have explained the use of frequency analysis for the abstracted data for the short durations. A type III Gumbel distribution was fitted by moments, for a given duration, accordingly. The plotting position assigned to each data item was calculated according to the Gringorten formula (Wheater and Bell 1983).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Analysis of rainfall data collected at Sistan and Balochistan The intensity-duration-frequency values for various durations and return periods for Sistan and Balochistan are summarized in Table 1. The Gumbel distribution lines for shorter duration rainfall i.e. 15, 30 and 60 min are plotted in Figure 2 while, those for longer duration i.e. 3, 6 and 12 hr rainfall are shown in Figure 3 for Sistan and Balochistan. The ranked values plotted in these figures against the Gumbel reduced variate, were calculated using the Gringorten plotting position formula. Intensity values for each return period were then calculated from the resulting best fit straight line, using the appropriate values of the reduced variate.

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Table 1. Intensity-duration-frequency values (mm/hr), with suspected anomalous figures in brackets, for various durations and return periods for Sistan and Balochistan Return Period (years) 2 5 10 25 50 100 Duration 1 hour 3 hour 22 35 44 55 63 71 9 14 18 22 25 28

15 min. 53 74 88 105 118 131

30 min. 36 53 65 79 90 101

(6 hour) (9) (13) (15) (19) (22) (24)

(12 hour) (8) (11) (13) (16) (18) (20)

Figure 2. Gumbel distributions for 15, 30 and 60 min duration in Sistan and Balochistan. The regression equations for fitted lines for a given duration and their respective 2 R value are shown in the Figures 2 and 3. The details on Gringorten formulae and calculation procedures have been given in the standard texts such as Marriott et al. (2009). The combined data set yielded maximum values for each of 6 durations. The rainfall intensity versus duration have been illustrated in Figure 4 for all durations (i.e. 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr, 3 hr, 6 hr and 12 hr) and for the shorter durations (i.e. 15 min, 30 min, 1 hr) with smaller return periods are shown in Figure 5.

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The trends show that the rainfall intensity generally decreases with increasing duration. However, with small duration, it changes quickly but the line tends to flatten for longer duration. However, for short durations and smaller return periods it seems more reliable. Comparison with data from other countries The rainfall data from London area, Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Northern Oman were compared with those from Sistan and Balochistan. The London data represents the Wallingford Procedure (NWC, 1981) while, the KL data represents the Malaysian Urban Storm Water Management Manual (DID 2000) and is based on data for the years from 1953 to 1983. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for 5 year return period were generated and are shown in Figure 6. Results showing plausible values up to 3 hour duration and anomalous values for 6 hr and 12 hr both for Sistan and Balochistan provinces, The results from this study further show plausible agreement for shorter durations with the data from Northern Oman, but they did not agree for longer durations where the IDF curves bend and flatten out that could be seen in the figure. The results for shorter durations appear to be acceptable thus may be useful for the design purposes or during the analysis of facilities that are required to alleviate flooding hazards, particularly when protective conveyance structures are designed and constructed. Not surprisingly, the tropical Malaysian data (DID, 2000) showed considerably higher intensities. Figure 6 also shows a likely anomaly in the longer duration results in this study. The curves for 6 and 12 hour durations tend towards the KL line, against the general trend of results for the data from Sistan and Balochistan provinces. However, the shorter duration results up to 3 hours appear reasonable so it might be useful when detailed analysis of longer data sets is done.

Figure 6. Comparison of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for 5-year return period with other countries.

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There are considerable problems associated with excessive rainfalls in area that cause heavy flooding. The impacts of flooding hazard pose a large and yet, untamed problem for both the regulatory bodies (public) and the local authorities. Furthermore, with increased development in the floodplain the economic implications are likely to grow significantly then a number of issues are paramount to the area of Sistan and Balochistan. Therefore using short duration rainfall data for the Sistan and Balochistan correlations and curves of intensity-durationfrequency (IDF) are determined, which are thus used to produce intensities for short duration rainfall over a range of return periods. The intensity duration frequency correlations and curves for Balochistan are useful to illustrate that the return period of storms over the Balochistan region is of the order of 100 years, Intensity values for each return period are calculated from the resulting best fit straight line, using the appropriate values of the reduced variate. Significant of results is illustrated in Figure 7 that shows return periods from 5 to 100 years. Flood risk zones deemed acceptable and remained unsafe as they have a 1% chance of being flooded according to changes in climate this is likely to increase to 4% or 5% chance within a decade, thus if a 1 in 100-year (1% chance of occurrence) is likely to occur as a 4% or 5% chance (1 in 25 or 20-year flood), then the costs associated with this will increase by the respective magnitude that needs to be looked into before designing any flooding structure (Viner and Agnew, 2001).

Figure 7. Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship for Baluchistan for a range of return periods up to 100 years

Sistan

and

CONCLUSION
For many hydrologic analyses, planning or design problems, reliable intensity estimates are necessary. When local rainfall data are available, intensityduration-frequency (IDF) curves can be developed using frequency analysis. In

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the present study, the rainfall data from sites in Sistan and Bolochistan have been used to establish intensity-duration-frequency curves, covering return periods from 2 to 100 years, and durations from 15 min up to 12 hrs. This is one of the outcomes of work carried out by (Zainudini, 2007) in a preliminary study covering data of various durations, which could usefully be extended with larger sets of data. The results for shorter durations appear plausible and may be useful for the design or analysis of facilities to alleviate flooding hazards, particularly by providing provision of protective diversion, conveyance and storage structures. Flood alleviation by means of providing increased storage would require additional hydrograph data, to give not only the peak discharge but also the volume. The results suggest that the analysis presented here should be reworked using more extensive data. The Government and the relevant authorities should maintain and keep the rainfall and the runoff records available, for detailed analyses.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors acknowledge their employers support for their research activity, but note that opinions expressed in the paper are the authors personal views, and not necessarily those of the organizations mentioned. The authors are grateful for the data obtained from Iran for this research work carried out at University of East London. Colleagues at Kolej Linton, Legenda Group, Malaysia are thanked for their assistance regarding data from Kuala Lumpur.

REFERENCES
DID. 2000. Drainage and Irrigation Department Malaysia. Urban Storm Water Management Manual (Manual Saliran Mesra Alam, MSMA). http://www.water.gov.my, www.msmam.com Le, M. N., T. Yasuto and T. Kaoru. 2006. Establishment of intensity-durationfrequency curves for precipitation in the monsoon area of Vietnam. Annals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., No. 49 B, pp. 93-103. Marriott, M. J. and M. A. Zainudini. 2006. A review of rainfall data from the Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan. Proceedings of the Advances in Computing and Technology Conference, London. ISBN-0-9550008-1-5, pp.113118. www.uel.ac.uk/act/proceedings/index.htm. Marriott, M. J., Nalluri and Featherstones. 2009. Civil Engineering Hydraulics, 5 edition, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester and Oxford, 2009. http://www.wiley.com/go/ marriott NWC. 1981. Design and analysis of urban storm drainage, the Wallingford Procedure, Volume 4: The Modified Rational Method, National Water Council (NWC) Standing Technical Committee Report No. 31.
th

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Nouh, M. A. 1987. Analysis of rainfall in the south-west region of Saudi Arabia. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, P.2, (83): 339-349. Viner, D. and M. Angrew. 2001. The climate system and its implications, climate change and insurance. CII Research Report, the Chartered Insurance Institute, London. pp. 15-26. Wheater, H. S. and N. C. Bell. 1983. Northern Oman flood study. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, P. 2 (75): 453-473. Zainudini, M. A. 2007. Sistan and Balochistan flood study, M.Sc. Thesis, University of East London.

(Received 18 November, 2011; Revised 31 December, 2011)

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