Taliban and the State of the State

Its nice to know someone who has read Clausewitz! You take on our politicians hijrat is very interesting, but true! An offensive against the Taliban leading to their dissolution would cause casualties and collateral damage, even more so if artillery and air power is employed. Almost all casualties and damage would pertain to people belonging to KP, and they make up 30% of the army. Any people, seeing an assault against their own people, however much in the wrong they may be, will not remain unaffected by the casualties and damage. The above apprehensions about collateral damage and its consequences are correct. It is the dread of every soldier. It may sound callous, but unfortunately, it is an unpalatable fact of warfare. The conditions are not the same, which were prevailing in 2007-9, when army went in FATA and later Swat; now the TTP have infiltrated in Karachi and other urban centers. They have also consolidated their position in south Punjab (about which the PML-N government is in denial). Therefore, no piece-meal military action would work. It will have to be a complex, coordinated action across the board; even if military action is only taken in KPK-FATA; what stops the TTP from mobilizing its cadres in Punjab and attempt to deliver a coup d grace in the heartland; notwithstanding their ongoing appeasement by the Sharifs?

FC in FATA and army units are already in action against their own people; although, there is no immediate apprehension on that score (though in the past military some men have been court-martialed on this account). But this could change also. My biggest worry is the morale and war-fatigue. I have heard many young officers privately questioning the dichotomy betwixt the military lives expended and the end result. Piece-meal military actions do not yield favorable/ lasting results. Most people dont realize that the continuous attrition is sapping the armys morale and inducing a war-fatigue. And of course, once the body bags of shaheeds are received in the ancestral villages and homes in the length and breadth of the country; it hemorrhages the civilian morale too; which is already at a breaking point due to bomb-blasts etc. Therefore, the longer the prevailing situation is stretched out; the weaker would be the status of our state and society. Humayun Ghauhar in his latest article have alluded that the government has approached the Saudis to talk to TTP to agree to the talks; if true this tells you a lot about TTPs sponsors! Similarly, I heard that Haqqani recently chaired a meeting of TTP Shura in Waziristan to be more amenable to the talks. Yesterday Nawaz asserted that the latest blast in Peshawar was not done by the TTP, since they have not owned it! What poppycock! I reiterate that the situation is complex, but do you really think that TTP could be persuaded by the Saudis, the Haqqanis or anyone else? The TTP agenda does not brook any compromise: they want nothing less the state of Pakistan. Even if, for the sake of argument; some

terrorist groups are persuaded to become amenable to talks/ peace; what about the rest? We have the example of terrorists turning rogue on their creators: SSP/LEJ/ MQM etc. COIN operations are more complex and nebulous than plain military operations; the former require the full and indubitable support of the whole nation. And such ops are conducted by the synergy of all the state organs; not by military alone. But here we a house divided; an extremely dystopian situation. And military action is only one element of COIN; we need to change the Taliban mind-set, which has been allowed to creep in and anchor in the minds of our people due to egregious acts of commission and omission of our leaders. At the moment, it seems that the Taliban narrative in stronger and the counter-narrative is almost non-existent. Time is running out; sand is fast slipping through our fingers.