DEVCO preguntas 1-4

Mercado
Unidades
Precio promedio
Participacion
Crecimiento de largo plazo

75,000,000
8.64
14.00%
1.00%

648,000,000

18282500

Anexo 1
Industria Promedio
Costo de ventas (con respecto a ventas)
Media
57.00%
Desviacion estandar
4.00%
Gastos administrativos ( en S/)
Media
Crecimiento anual
Gasto de ventas (con respecto a ventas)
Media
4.00%
Desviacion estandar
4.00%
Gasto de tranporte (con respecto a ventas)
Media
3.80%
Desviacion estandar
0.35%
Capital de trabajo
Periodo de cobro
27
Periodo de pago
58
Periodo de inventarios
51
Efectivo (% ventas)
2.40%
Costo de capital
Pasivo de corto plazo
8.00%
Pasivo de largo plazo
54.00%
Patrimonio
38.00%
Costo de la deuda
7.50%
beta del sector
0.79
riesgo pais
2.12%
Tasa libre de riesgo
3.80%
Prima de mercado
4.78%
Participacion de mercado

CAPEX
Depreciacion
Depreciacion programada
Impuestos

Pronto

DEVCO

52.00%
2.00%

54.00%
5.00%

25,000,000
3.00%

17,750,000
3.00%

3.15%
2.00%

3.35%
0.50%

3.50%
0.80%

4.80%
1.15%

28
68
59
1.78%

24
35
45
1.68%

15.00%
63.00%
22.00%
6.32%
0.79
2.12%
3.80%
4.78%

12.00%
2.00%
86.00%
6.89%
0.79
2.12%
3.80%
4.78%

38.00%

14.00%

CCPP
Activos totales actuales
Activos operativos

EBIT
Impuestos
Depreciacion
NOPAT
CAPEX
Inv k de w
perpetuidad
FCF
VAN

Capex

3 primeros aos
aos siguientes
8,000,000
2,500,000
7
primeros 3 aos
del 3 al 6
cuatro ultimos
6,320,000
8,850,000
250,000
30.00%

Beta apalancado
Costo accionista

Ingresos
costo ventas
margen bruto
g ad
g vta
g transp
EBITDA
Depreciacion

1.69226
14.01%

2.75064
19.07%

0.88002
10.13%

8.58%

7.65%

9.38%

59,000,000
53,800,000

Dep

Crecimiento
77,100,000
2010
1
93,260,160
-50,360,486
42,899,674
-18,282,500
-3,124,215
-4,476,488
17,016,471
-6,320,000
-1,142,857
9,553,613
-2,866,084
7,462,857
14,150,387
-8,000,000
-1,683,017

2.80%
79,258,800
2011
2
95,871,444
-51,770,580
44,100,864
-18,830,975
-3,211,693
-4,601,829
17,456,367
-6,320,000
-2,285,714
8,850,652
-2,655,196
8,605,714
14,801,171
-8,000,000
-257,124

1%
81,478,046
2012
3
98,555,845
-53,220,156
45,335,689
-19,395,904
-3,301,621
-4,730,681
17,907,483
-6,320,000
-3,428,571
8,158,912
-2,447,673
9,748,571
15,459,810
-8,000,000
-264,324

83,759,432
2013
4
101,315,409
-54,710,321
46,605,088
-19,977,781
-3,394,066
-4,863,140
18,370,101
-8,850,000
-3,785,714
5,734,386
-1,720,316
12,635,714
16,649,785
-2,500,000
-271,725

86,104,696
2014
5
104,152,240
-56,242,210
47,910,030
-20,577,115
-3,489,100
-4,999,308
18,844,508
-8,850,000
-4,142,857
5,851,651
-1,755,495
12,992,857
17,089,013
-2,500,000
-279,333

88,515,627
2015
6
107,068,503
-57,816,991
49,251,511
-21,194,428
-3,586,795
-5,139,288
19,331,000
-8,850,000
-4,500,000
5,981,000
-1,794,300
13,350,000
17,536,700
-2,500,000
-287,155

90,994,065
2016
7
110,066,421
-59,435,867
50,630,554
-21,830,261
-3,687,225
-5,283,188
19,829,879
-250,000
-4,857,143
14,722,736
-4,416,821
5,107,143
15,413,058
-2,500,000
-295,195

93,541,899
2017
8
113,148,281
-61,100,072
52,048,209
-22,485,169
-3,790,467
-5,431,117
20,341,455
-250,000
-4,071,429
16,020,027
-4,806,008
4,321,429
15,535,447
-2,500,000
-303,460

96,161,072
2018
9
116,316,432
-62,810,874
53,505,559
-23,159,724
-3,896,600
-5,583,189
20,866,046
-250,000
-3,285,714
17,330,331
-5,199,099
3,535,714
15,666,946
-2,500,000
-311,957

4,467,369

6,544,047

7,195,486

13,878,060

14,309,679

14,749,545

12,617,863

12,731,987

12,854,989

98,853,582
2019
10
119,573,293
-64,569,578
55,003,715
-23,854,516
-4,005,705
-5,739,518
21,403,976
-250,000
-2,500,000
18,653,976
-5,596,193
2,750,000
15,807,783
-2,500,000
-320,692
154,902,914
167,890,005

2011
8,000,000

2012
8,000,000

2013
2,500,000

2014
2,500,000

2015
2,500,000

2016
2,500,000

2017
2,500,000

2018
2,500,000

2019
2,500,000

1,142,857
1,142,857

1,142,857
1,142,857
1,142,857

1,142,857
1,142,857
1,142,857
357,143

1,142,857
1,142,857
1,142,857
357,143
357,143

1,142,857
1,142,857
1,142,857
357,143
357,143
357,143

1,142,857
1,142,857
1,142,857
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143

129,644,051
S/.129,644,050.56
2010
8,000,000
1,142,857

Amodaran

inventario
cxcobrar
cxpagar
efectivo
7,500,000

venta

0
0

no hay forma de comprar pronto

uso mis ratios p valorizar

0
0

Pasivo
Patrimonio

rspta 4
pasivo
Act.total
Pasivo
tasa

78.00%
59,000,000
46
6.89%

1,142,857
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143

2,285,714

3,428,571

3,785,714

4,142,857

4,500,000

4,857,143

4,071,429

3,285,714

6,295,061
6,217,344
-4,896,158
1,566,771
9,183,017
-1,683,017

6,471,323
6,391,430
-5,033,251
1,610,640
9,440,142
-257,124

6,652,520
6,570,390
-5,174,182
1,655,738
9,704,466
-264,324

6,838,790
6,754,361
-5,319,059
1,702,099
9,976,191
-271,725

7,030,276
6,943,483
-5,467,993
1,749,758
10,255,524
-279,333

7,227,124
7,137,900
-5,621,096
1,798,751
10,542,679
-287,155

7,429,483
7,337,761
-5,778,487
1,849,116
10,837,874
-295,195

7,637,509
7,543,219
-5,940,285
1,900,891
11,141,334
-303,460

7,851,359
7,754,429
-6,106,613
1,954,116
11,453,291
-311,957

22.29%
8,193,128
8,193,128

3
8193128
8,193,128

10,479,184
9,803,708
1,397,491
11,201,200

0
10,479,184
722,016
11,201,200

transporte
129,644,051
0.035
0.0315 142,629,553

necesito esto para

trabajr como k d w
2

53,800,000
8,000,000
1,683,017
63,483,017

ROIC = NOPAT / ACTIVO OPERATIVO

EP = ACTIVO OPERATIVO X ( ROIC - CCPP)
EVA = NOPAT - ACTIVO OPERATIVO X CCPP

78.00%
22.00%

Activos totales

59,000,000
8,000,000
1,683,017
68,683,017

46020000

Pasivo
Amortizacion
interes
cuota

53,572,753

46,062,716
7,510,037
3,691,163
11,201,200

EBITDA / intereses

1,142,857
1,142,857
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143

1,142,857

Activos operativos

venta

4.61

38,035,238
8,027,479
3,173,721
11,201,200
5.50

29,454,666
8,580,572
2,620,628
11,201,200
6.83

20,282,892
9,171,773
2,029,426
11,201,200

357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
357,143
2,500,000 Dif

8,071,197
7,971,553
-6,277,598
2,008,831
11,773,984
-320,692

sinohay k de wjo podemos buscar

inversiones ao pasado,

DEVCO pregunta 5
Mercado
Unidades
Precio promedio
Participacion
Crecimiento de largo plazo

75,000,000
8.64
14.00%
1.00%

Anexo 1
Industria Promedio
Costo de ventas (con respecto a ventas)
Media
57.00%
Desviacion estandar
4.00%
Gastos administrativos ( en S/)
Media
Crecimiento anual
Gasto de ventas (con respecto a ventas)
Media
4.00%
Desviacion estandar
4.00%
Gasto de tranporte (con respecto a ventas)
Media
3.80%
Desviacion estandar
0.35%
Capital de trabajo
Periodo de cobro
27
Periodo de pago
58
Periodo de inventarios
51
Efectivo (% ventas)
2.40%
Costo de capital
Pasivo de corto plazo
8.00%
Pasivo de largo plazo
54.00%
Patrimonio
38.00%
Costo de la deuda
7.50%
beta del sector
0.79
riesgo pais
2.12%
Tasa libre de riesgo
3.80%
Prima de mercado
4.78%
Participacion de mercado

3 primeros aos
CAPEX
Depreciacion
Depreciacion programada
Impuestos

Beta apalancado
Costo accionista
CCPP

8,000,000

648,000,000

Pronto

90720000

DEVCO

52.00%
2.00%

54.00%
5.00%

25,000,000
3.00%

17,750,000
3.00%

3.15%
2.00%

3.35%
0.50%

3.50%
0.80%

4.80%
1.15%

28
68
59
1.78%

24
35
45
1.68%

15.00%
63.00%
22.00%
6.32%
0.79
2.12%
3.80%
4.78%

12.00%
2.00%
86.00%
6.89%
0.79
2.12%
3.80%
4.78%

38.00%

14.00%

1.57584
13.45%
5.53%

Activos totales actuales

59,000,000

Activos operativos

53,800,000

EBIT
Impuestos
Depreciacion
NOPAT
CAPEX
Inv k de w
FCF
VAN

2.80%
77,100,000
2011
2
93,260,160
-52,391,530
40,868,630
-18,830,975
-4,051,607
-4,637,907
13,348,141
-6,320,000
-2,285,714
4,742,426
-1,422,728
8,605,714
11,925,413
-8,000,000
-310,552

1%
79,258,800
2012
3
95,871,444
-46,233,370
49,638,075
-19,395,904
-2,726,690
-3,303,634
24,211,847
-6,320,000
-3,428,571
14,463,276
-4,338,983
9,748,571
19,872,864
-8,000,000
-46,895

81,478,046
2013
4
98,555,845
-52,498,381
46,057,463
-19,977,781
-2,989,629
-4,463,767
18,626,286
-8,850,000
-3,785,714
5,990,572
-1,797,171
12,635,714
16,829,114
-2,500,000
-398,086

83,759,432
2014
5
101,315,409
-60,591,030
40,724,379
-20,577,115
-2,805,634
-3,690,954
13,650,675
-8,850,000
-4,142,857
657,818
-197,345
12,992,857
13,453,330
-2,500,000
-455,127

86,104,696
2015
6
104,152,240
-54,667,788
49,484,452
-21,194,428
-3,160,989
-5,627,283
19,501,752
-8,850,000
-4,500,000
6,151,752
-1,845,525
13,350,000
17,656,226
-2,500,000
-72,246

88,515,627
2016
7
107,068,503
-56,794,041
50,274,462
-21,830,261
-4,247,352
-7,363,255
16,833,594
-250,000
-4,857,143
11,726,451
-3,517,935
5,107,143
13,315,658
-2,500,000
-302,473

90,994,065
2017
8
110,066,421
-51,792,196
58,274,225
-22,485,169
-3,927,135
-5,190,984
26,670,937
-250,000
-5,214,286
21,206,651
-6,361,995
5,464,286
20,308,942
-2,500,000
-111,286

93,541,899
2018
9
113,148,281
-63,665,733
49,482,548
-23,159,724
-3,829,258
-3,811,964
18,681,602
-250,000
-5,571,429
12,860,173
-3,858,052
5,821,429
14,823,550
-2,500,000
-587,053

4,292,036

3,614,861

11,825,969

13,931,028

10,498,203

15,083,980

10,513,185

17,697,655

11,736,497

96,161,072
2019
10
116,316,432
-66,035,423
50,281,010
-23,854,516
-3,882,699
-4,965,184
17,578,611
-250,000
-5,928,571
11,400,040
-3,420,012
6,178,571
14,158,599
-2,500,000
-330,260
142,130,859
153,459,198

126,922,858

AF Bruto
Depreciacion
AF Neto

8,000,000
1,142,857
6,857,143

16,000,000
2,285,714
12,571,429

24,000,000
3,428,571
17,142,857

26,500,000
3,785,714
15,857,143

29,000,000
4,142,857
14,214,286

31,500,000
4,500,000
12,214,286

34,000,000
4,857,143
9,857,143

36,500,000
5,214,286
7,142,857

39,000,000
5,571,429
4,071,429

41,500,000
5,928,571
642,857

inventario
cxcobrar
cxpagar
efectivo
7,500,000

6,105,541
6,048,000
-4,748,754
1,524,096
8,928,883

6,548,941
6,217,344
-5,093,621
1,566,771
9,239,435

5,779,171
6,391,430
-4,494,911
1,610,640
9,286,330

6,562,298
6,570,390
-5,104,009
1,655,738
9,684,416

7,573,879
6,754,361
-5,890,795
1,702,099
10,139,544

6,833,474
6,943,483
-5,314,924
1,749,758
10,211,790

7,099,255
7,137,900
-5,521,643
1,798,751
10,514,263

6,474,025
7,337,761
-5,035,352
1,849,116
10,625,549

7,958,217
7,543,219
-6,189,724
1,900,891
11,212,602

8,254,428
7,754,429
-6,420,111
1,954,116
11,542,862

aos siguientes

1
2
3

126,922,858
130,512,002
144,089,726

Media

126,922,858

2,500,000

177,055,814

Error tpico

148,572,004

Mediana

6
7
8
9
10

152,970,990
122,320,122
161,763,687
152,552,580
151,016,728

Moda
#N/A
Desviacin estndar
28,847,501
Varianza de la muestra
832,178,328,064,118
Curtosis
-0
Coeficiente de asimetra
-0

11
12
13

112,429,354
124,255,145
168,585,722

Rango
Mnimo
Mximo

14
15

152,925,638
124,496,628

Suma
Cuenta

16
17

119,210,954
151,023,256

7
primeros 3 aos
6,320,000
30.00%

Ingresos
costo ventas
margen bruto
g ad
g vta
g transp
EBITDA
Depreciacion

Crecimiento
75,000,000
2010
1
90,720,000
-48,844,329
41,875,671
-18,282,500
-3,060,160
-4,130,065
16,402,946
-6,320,000
-1,142,857
8,940,089
-2,682,027
7,462,857
13,720,919
-8,000,000
-1,428,883

del 3 al 6
cuatro ultimos
8,850,000
250,000

2.37359
17.27%
4.46%

0.80286
9.76%
8.97%

Columna1
134,969,828

Valor al 68% de confianza

2,039,826

Minimo

106,122,327

135,861,078

Maximo

163,817,329

91621884

117651715

4
5
6
7
8

174875905
117092342
139274818
114607427
118135598

159,557,982
50,596,284
210,154,266

9
10
11

127000430
134449818
135740749

26,993,965,591
200

12
13

141478956
129085091

14
15

122575007
138425077